Bryce Jarvis — OGILVIE

Bryce Jarvis P Reno Aces

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.17

FIP5.46

K%17.2%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

CH+1.6 (21%)

SI (7%)

CU (5%)

CT-1.0 (4%)

SL-1.6 (21%)

FB-1.7 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	75	315	89	30	12	100%	4.7	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	4.2%	4.42	4.99	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	75	315	89	30	12	100%	4.7	28.3%	9.5%	18.7%	3.8%	4.42	4.00	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	25	107	505	110	60	27	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.1%	4.6%	5.9%	8.27	6.48	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	25	107	505	110	60	27	100%	4.3	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	5.3%	8.27	6.02	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	20	130	558	125	61	13	53%	3.4	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	2.5%	4.71	4.18	+1.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	20	130	558	125	61	13	53%	3.4	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	2.5%	4.71	4.18	+1.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	20	130	558	125	61	13	53%	3.4	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	2.3%	4.71	3.88	+1.6
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	0	59	258	38	29	6	0%	1.3	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.5%	3.19	4.63	-0.1
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	0	59	258	38	29	6	0%	1.3	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.5%	3.19	4.63	-0.1
2024	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	0	59	258	38	29	6	0%	1.3	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.3%	3.19	4.60	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	475	93	54	17	61%	3.2	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	4.3%	7.87	5.32	-0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	475	93	54	17	61%	3.2	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	4.3%	7.87	5.32	-0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	19	101	475	93	54	17	61%	3.2	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.6%	7.87	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			67	1	105	448	71	48	12	1%	1.6	15.8%	10.7%	5.1%	2.7%	3.69	4.60	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	50	4	64	302	65	35	10	8%	1.3	17.9%	10.4%	7.4%	3.6%	5.48	4.91	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	50	4	64	302	65	35	10	8%	1.3	17.9%	10.4%	7.4%	3.6%	5.48	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	ARI	50	4	64	302	65	35	10	8%	1.3	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.3%	5.48	4.57	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	5	22	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	3.4%	5.17	5.46	-0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	69	324	69	38	11	—	—	21.2%	11.7%	9.6%	3.3%	5.46	4.95	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ARI	56	0	59	250	42	32	9	0%	1.1	16.7%	12.7%	3.9%	3.5%	5.44	5.62	-0.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	53	0	56	235	38	31	9	0%	1.1	16.0%	13.0%	2.9%	3.7%	5.67	5.83	-0.8
2027	29	MLB CTX	ARI	21	0	22	93	15	12	3	0%	1.0	16.7%	12.7%	3.9%	3.5%	5.44	5.62	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	30	0	31	131	21	17	5	0%	1.0	16.0%	13.0%	2.9%	3.7%	5.67	5.83	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	1	158	672	107	77	20	1%	1.3	16.0%	11.4%	4.5%	3.0%	4.32	4.85	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		149	1	200	850	135	97	25	1%	1.3	16.0%	11.4%	4.5%	3.0%	4.32	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		204	84	536	2413	434	268	94	41%	2.6	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	3.9%	5.89	5.13	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	31	200	900	162	100	35	41%	2.6	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	3.9%	5.89	5.13	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Jarvis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	17.2%	12.5%	3.4%	—	5.72	16.3%	3.4%	115	+0.26	—	—	—
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	74
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	71
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	70
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	70
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	69
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	69
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	69
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	69
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	69
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	69
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	69
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	69
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	68
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	68
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	68
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	68
Lindsey Caughel R 2018 · 5.12 FIP	27	SW	5.12	13.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	187	67
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	67
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.77	20.5%	12.7%	68	-1.02	3.52	619	67
Casey Coleman R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	12.6%	11.4%	1.5%	.349	4.14	18.3%	8.9%	146	-0.18	2.95	306	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	16.6%	12.7%	1.37	5.42
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77