Bryce Jarvis
P
Reno Aces
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.24
FIP5.58
K%17.6%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%4.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1920.9%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p480.314
CH+1.6 (21%)
SI (7%)
CU (5%)
CT-1.0 (4%)
SL-1.6 (21%)
FB-1.7 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 75 | 315 | 89 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 4.42 | 4.78 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 75 | 315 | 89 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 28.3% | 9.5% | 18.7% | 3.8% | 4.42 | 4.00 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 25 | 25 | 107 | 505 | 110 | 60 | 27 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.6% | 13.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 8.27 | 6.23 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 25 | 25 | 107 | 505 | 110 | 60 | 27 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 8.27 | 6.02 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 20 | 130 | 558 | 125 | 61 | 13 | 53% | 3.4 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 4.71 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 20 | 130 | 558 | 125 | 61 | 13 | 53% | 3.4 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 4.71 | 3.88 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44 | 0 | 59 | 258 | 38 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.19 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44 | 0 | 59 | 258 | 38 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.19 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 19 | 101 | 475 | 93 | 54 | 17 | 61% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.87 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 19 | 101 | 475 | 93 | 54 | 17 | 61% | 3.2 | 19.6% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 7.87 | 5.06 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 32 | 2 | 44 | 212 | 41 | 27 | 8 | 6% | 1.4 | 17.0% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.93 | 5.64 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ARI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 46 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.58 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 106 | 474 | 87 | 62 | 17 | — | — | 18.4% | 13.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.53 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 6 | 26 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 17.6% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.54 | 5.74 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 38 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.79 | 5.95 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 34 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 14.3% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 6.02 | 6.18 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.54 | 5.74 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.79 | 5.95 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 23 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 14.3% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 6.02 | 6.18 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 156 | 1 | 199 | 844 | 136 | 103 | 27 | 1% | 1.3 | 16.1% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 1 | 200 | 849 | 137 | 104 | 27 | 1% | 1.3 | 16.1% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 186 | 82 | 516 | 2323 | 425 | 278 | 89 | 44% | 2.8 | 18.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.95 | 5.18 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 32 | 200 | 900 | 165 | 108 | 35 | 44% | 2.8 | 18.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.95 | 5.18 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce Jarvis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 3.4% | — | 5.95 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 167 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Alex Caldera R 2027 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 73 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 69 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 69 |
| Jason García R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.7% | 13.5% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 356 | 68 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.59 | 3.21 | 578 | 68 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 68 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 67 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.69 | 19.4% | 6.9% | 110 | -0.09 | 4.02 | 748 | 67 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2023 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 66 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 66 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 66 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 66 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.03 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | 4.41 | 8.3% | -7.5% | 10 | -1.62 | 3.92 | 233 | 66 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 66 |
| Brad Allen R 2025 · 6.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.07 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.6% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 149 | 66 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 65 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.88 | 12.9% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.51 | 151 | 65 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 65 |
| Kaleb Roper R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.54 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 4.4% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.54 | 146 | 65 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.29 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 135 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 1.43 | 5.63 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |