Bryce Jarvis
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
ERA4.57
FIP5.15
xFIP4.90
SIERA4.31
K%18.5%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%7.4%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL3030
CMD3030
K†4545
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1920.9%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p480.314
CH+1.6 (21%)
SI (7%)
CU (5%)
CT-1.0 (4%)
SL-1.6 (21%)
FB-1.7 (49%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 16 | 16 | 75 | 315 | 89 | 30 | 12 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 4.42 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 25 | 25 | 107 | 505 | 110 | 60 | 27 | 17.6% | 13.1% | 6.0% | 8.27 | 6.56 | -1.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 38 | 20 | 130 | 558 | 125 | 61 | 13 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44 | 0 | 59 | 258 | 38 | 29 | 6 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 3.19 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 31 | 19 | 101 | 475 | 93 | 54 | 17 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 7.87 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 5 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.36 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 18.8% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 43 | 189 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 18.0% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 5.37 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 18.3% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 5.25 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 17.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 17.2% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 5.55 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 5.67 | 5.76 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 15.9% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 5.80 | 5.88 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 159 | 80 | 479 | 2151 | 395 | 256 | 85 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 5.97 | 5.22 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 33 | 200 | 897 | 165 | 107 | 35 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 5.97 | 5.22 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce Jarvis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.37 | 18.8% | 13.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.54 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 100 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 86 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 84 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 81 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 80 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 79 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.60 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 140 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 77 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 77 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 77 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 76 |
| Guido Knudson R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 76 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.48 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% | .417 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 104 | 75 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.86 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 157 | 75 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.11 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 2.8% | .262 | 5.07 | 16.2% | -1.4% | 15 | -0.04 | 3.46 | 183 | 75 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 75 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.21 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 4.4% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 174 | 75 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.