Bryce Jarvis

P Reno Aces

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBARI	44	0	59	3.19	4.60	14.7%	11.2%	-0.0
2025	27	MIX2 levels	31	19	101	7.87	5.06	19.6%	11.4%	0.4	K 17.5% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.28
2026	28	AAAARI	52	4	67	5.51	4.80	21.3%	11.1%	—	K 18.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.93
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	7	0	7	5.14	5.42	17.9%	12.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBARI	16	0	17	5.43	5.62	17.2%	12.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBARI	19	0	20	5.69	5.86	16.5%	12.9%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs48

K%45

FB Velo43

CompsJose Pina (age 29) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Fredy Quintero (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.14

FIP5.42

K%17.9%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	75	315	89	30	12	100%	4.7	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	4.2%	4.42	4.99	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	75	315	89	30	12	100%	4.7	28.3%	9.5%	18.7%	3.8%	4.42	4.00	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	25	107	505	110	60	27	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.1%	4.6%	5.9%	8.27	6.48	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	25	107	505	110	60	27	100%	4.3	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	5.3%	8.27	6.02	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	20	130	558	125	61	13	53%	3.4	19.4%	10.3%	9.2%	2.5%	4.71	4.14	+1.9
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	20	130	558	125	61	13	53%	3.4	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	2.3%	4.71	3.88	+2.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	0	59	258	38	29	6	0%	1.3	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.5%	3.19	4.63	-0.1
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	0	59	258	38	29	6	0%	1.3	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.5%	3.19	4.63	-0.1
2024	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	44	0	59	258	38	29	6	0%	1.3	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.3%	3.19	4.60	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	475	93	54	17	61%	3.2	17.5%	10.4%	7.0%	4.3%	7.87	5.28	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	475	93	54	17	61%	3.2	17.5%	10.4%	7.0%	4.3%	7.87	5.28	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	19	101	475	93	54	17	61%	3.2	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.6%	7.87	5.06	+0.4
2026	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	52	4	67	315	67	35	11	8%	1.3	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	3.8%	5.51	4.93	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	52	4	67	315	67	35	11	8%	1.3	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	3.8%	5.51	4.93	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	52	4	67	315	67	35	11	8%	1.3	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	3.5%	5.51	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			67	1	105	448	71	48	12	1%	1.6	15.8%	10.7%	5.1%	2.7%	3.69	4.60	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.2%	5.7%	3.5%	5.14	5.42	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	46	195	34	24	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	3.7%	5.43	5.62	-0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	35	0	37	155	25	20	6	0%	1.0	16.5%	12.9%	3.6%	3.9%	5.69	5.86	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	16	0	17	72	12	9	3	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	3.7%	5.43	5.62	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	19	0	20	84	14	11	3	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.9%	3.6%	3.9%	5.69	5.86	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	1	142	605	97	68	18	1%	1.4	16.1%	11.2%	4.9%	3.0%	4.18	4.79	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		144	1	200	851	136	96	25	1%	1.4	16.1%	11.2%	4.9%	3.0%	4.18	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		206	84	539	2426	443	268	95	41%	2.6	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	3.9%	5.89	5.12	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	31	200	900	164	99	35	41%	2.6	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	3.9%	5.89	5.12	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 67 IPFIP 4.63 → 4.93 (+0.30)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.27%	—	×0.860	18.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.84%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 79 IPFIP 5.00 → 5.52 (+0.52)K% 19.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.10%	—	×0.860	16.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.67%	—	×0.900	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.71%	÷0.904	×1.100	4.52%

Result: FIP 5.00 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 92 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.10 (+0.25)K% 23.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.36%	—	×0.860	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.95%	—	×0.900	9.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷1.012	×1.100	2.65%

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 14 IPFIP 2.10 → 2.76 (+0.66)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.91%	—	×0.810	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.73%	—	×1.100	14.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.637	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 227).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 2.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 107 IPFIP 5.70 → 6.48 (+0.78)K% 21.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.78%	—	×0.810	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.88%	—	×1.100	13.07%
HR / BF /BF	5.35%	÷1.094	×1.200	5.86%

Result: FIP 5.70 → 6.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 37 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.40 (+1.11)K% 27.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.770	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.50%	—	×1.150	9.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷0.972	×1.250	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 35 IPFIP 5.18 → 5.59 (+0.40)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.810	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.18%	—	×1.100	12.30%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.271	×1.200	4.97%

Result: FIP 5.18 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Jarvis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	17.9%	12.2%	3.5%	—	5.73	16.9%	4.2%	83	+0.31	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	76
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	73
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	73
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	73
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	72
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	72
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	72
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	72
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	72
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	71
Nelson Gonzalez R 2019 · 6.52 FIP	29	SW	6.52	15.7%	13.1%	5.6%	.294	5.62	19.2%	8.7%	25	-0.90	3.42	258	71
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	70
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	70
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	70
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	70
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	69
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	68
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Jason Simontacchi R 2003 · 4.96 FIP	29	SW	4.96	13.1%	7.3%	3.7%	.309	8.14	4.5%	-5.9%	15	+3.18	4.79	356	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	42	16.7%	12.1%	1.25	4.67
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*