Jonathan Aranda — OGILVIE

Jonathan Aranda1B Tampa Bay Rays

Age 28 L/R 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.174S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION406 act + 270 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 121150vR 161

AVG/OBP/SLG.284 / .380 / .468

PA270

HR10

K%23

BB%11

BABIP346

ISO185

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

906.1%

xwOBA

900.375

POWER60

Barrel%

7812.4

Avg EV

9092.0

Bat Spd

4170.4

EYE50

Chase%

9018.1%

SPEED40

Sprint

1225.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 662 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

130

532

—

wRC+

116

148

▶▶R

wOBA

336

379

▶R

ISO

087

214

▶▶R

BABIP

372

349

◀L

28.5%

23.5%

▶▶R

BB%

15.4%

8.6%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.174 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2027	Arb-2	$9M	+4.3	$32M	+$24M
2028	Arb-3	$15M	+3.9	$27M	+$15M
2029	Arb-4	$20M	+3.5	$22M	+$8M
Totals		$45M		$95M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	202	181	36	4	4	1	11	46	7	5	4	199	271	282	553	83	259	23	5	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	202	175	45	6	5	1	17	32	7	5	4	257	347	366	712	109	308	16	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK	2 teams	—	237	221	50	8	1	0	10	54	3	16	5	226	269	271	541	45	296	23	4	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK	2 teams	—	237	215	60	11	1	0	16	44	3	16	5	279	338	340	677	60	347	19	7	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	144	131	30	6	3	1	8	25	3	0	1	229	289	344	632	115	271	17	6	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	144	126	36	8	4	1	12	18	3	0	1	286	359	437	796	151	321	12	8	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	3 teams	—	281	255	54	9	1	2	22	71	0	1	1	212	274	278	553	67	280	25	8	250	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	3 teams	—	281	243	64	13	2	3	33	51	0	1	1	263	350	370	721	107	316	18	12	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	159	144	48	5	2	3	11	20	3	6	0	333	392	458	851	125	369	13	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	159	144	48	5	2	3	11	20	3	6	0	333	392	458	851	125	369	13	7	378	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	3 teams	—	548	484	135	22	6	18	39	138	17	7	3	279	354	461	814	182	349	25	7	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	3 teams	—	548	464	148	25	5	16	59	100	17	7	3	319	415	498	913	179	372	18	11	400	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	552	498	131	23	1	16	36	143	11	4	0	263	327	410	736	147	332	26	7	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	552	481	143	30	1	20	53	123	11	4	0	297	380	489	868	191	357	22	10	381	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	537	466	124	23	1	19	55	134	12	2	2	266	358	442	800	176	331	25	10	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	537	444	141	27	1	27	77	118	12	2	2	318	432	565	997	248	376	22	14	434	190	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	—	402	351	76	11	0	16	40	122	8	1	0	217	311	385	695	168	279	30	10	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	—	402	340	87	15	2	19	51	98	8	1	0	256	366	479	845	224	302	24	13	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	422	370	116	23	0	15	41	107	8	0	2	314	394	497	891	184	402	25	10	382	151	+24	-1	-3	-8	+12	2.6
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	422	370	117	22	0	14	41	107	8	0	2	316	396	489	885	173	409	25	10	391	158	+28	-1	-3	-8	+12	2.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	TB	—	406	340	101	17	0	14	51	88	8	0	0	297	401	471	872	174	355	22	13	374	145	+20	+0	-1	-7	+12	2.4
YTD	28	MLB	TB	—	406	340	101	17	0	14	51	88	8	0	0	297	401	471	872	174	355	22	13	384	152	+24	+0	-1	-7	+12	2.7
ROS	28	MLB	TB	100%	270	232	66	13	0	10	31	62	5	0	0	284	380	468	848	185	345	23	11	376	146	+14	+0	+2	-5	+8	1.9
ROS	28	MLB	TB	100%	271	233	66	12	0	10	31	62	5	0	0	283	379	464	843	180	348	23	11	362	135	+11	+0	+2	-5	+8	1.6
FULL	28	MLB	TB	—	677	573	167	29	0	24	82	150	13	0	0	291	392	468	860	176	351	22	12	369	141	+31	+0	+1	-12	+19	4.0
TOT	28	MLB	TB	—	676	572	167	30	0	24	82	150	13	0	0	292	392	470	862	178	352	22	12	375	145	+35	+0	+1	-12	+19	4.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	TB	100%	660	567	161	31	1	24	76	153	12	1	0	284	380	469	849	185	344	23	12	374	144	+33	+0	+3	-12	+19	4.4
2028	30	MLB	TB	100%	650	558	156	30	0	23	75	152	12	1	0	280	377	457	834	177	342	23	12	370	142	+31	+0	+3	-12	+18	4.1
2029	31	MLB	TB	100%	637	547	151	29	0	22	73	151	12	1	0	276	373	450	823	174	338	24	11	365	138	+27	+0	+2	-11	+18	3.7
2030	32	MLB	TB	100%	624	537	144	27	0	21	71	150	11	1	0	268	365	436	801	168	333	24	11	359	133	+23	+0	+1	-11	+18	3.1
2031	33	MLB	TB	100%	538	462	122	22	0	18	61	132	10	0	0	264	362	429	791	165	327	25	11	350	126	+16	+0	-0	-10	+15	2.2
2032	34	MLB	TB	96%	455	392	99	17	0	14	52	115	8	0	0	253	352	403	755	151	318	25	11	339	118	+9	+0	-2	-8	+13	1.3
2033	35	MLB	TB	91%	384	331	80	13	0	11	43	100	7	0	0	242	341	381	722	139	308	26	11	327	108	+4	+0	-3	-7	+11	0.5
2034	36	MLB	TB	82%	185	159	37	6	0	5	21	50	3	0	0	233	333	365	698	132	299	27	11	314	99	-0	+0	-5	-3	+5	-0.3
2035	37	MLB	TB	73%	124	107	23	3	0	3	14	34	2	0	0	215	317	327	644	112	289	27	11	301	89	-2	+0	-6	-2	+4	-0.7
2027	29	MLB	TB	100%	660	567	161	30	1	23	76	153	12	1	0	284	380	462	842	178	347	23	12	360	134	+25	+0	+3	-12	+19	3.6
2028	30	MLB	TB	100%	650	558	157	29	0	23	75	152	12	1	0	281	378	457	835	176	345	23	12	357	131	+23	+0	+3	-12	+18	3.3
2029	31	MLB	TB	100%	637	547	152	28	0	22	73	151	12	1	0	278	375	450	825	172	341	24	11	352	127	+20	+0	+2	-11	+18	2.9
2030	32	MLB	TB	100%	624	537	145	26	0	21	71	150	11	1	0	270	367	436	802	166	336	24	11	345	122	+16	+0	+1	-11	+18	2.4
2031	33	MLB	TB	100%	538	462	122	21	0	17	61	132	10	0	0	264	362	420	782	156	330	25	11	337	116	+10	+0	-0	-10	+15	1.5
2032	34	MLB	TB	96%	435	375	95	16	0	13	49	110	8	0	0	253	352	400	752	147	321	25	11	326	108	+4	+0	-1	-8	+12	0.7
2033	35	MLB	TB	91%	349	301	74	12	0	10	39	91	6	0	0	246	344	385	729	140	311	26	11	314	99	-0	+0	-3	-6	+10	0.1
2034	36	MLB	TB	82%	152	131	31	5	0	4	17	41	3	0	0	237	338	366	704	130	302	27	11	302	89	-2	+0	-4	-3	+4	-0.4
2035	37	MLB	TB	73%	91	79	17	2	0	2	10	25	2	0	0	215	319	316	635	101	292	27	11	289	79	-2	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5162	4453	1202	218	2	169	576	1260	94	4	2	270	365	434	799	164	339	24	11	345	122	+129	+0	-8	-101	+146	17.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	150	27	0	21	73	159	12	1	0	267	364	428	792	160	336	24	11	345	122	+16	+0	-1	-13	+18	2.2
Career	—			—	8011	6993	1839	325	20	242	790	1959	154	46	18	263	351	419	770	156	329	24	10	333	113	+116	+2	-11	-131	+227	20.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	150	26	2	20	64	159	12	4	1	265	351	423	774	159	332	24	10	333	113	+9	+0	-1	-11	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	202	175	45	6	5	1	17	32	7	5	4	257	347	366	712	109	308	16	8	320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+6	0.6
2017	19	ROK	GCL Rays	—	197	178	51	9	1	0	14	31	3	14	4	287	349	348	697	62	342	16	7	316	100	-0	+1	—	—	+6	0.7
2017	19	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	40	37	9	2	0	0	2	13	0	2	1	243	282	297	579	54	375	32	5	257	55	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2018	20	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	144	126	36	8	4	1	12	18	3	0	1	286	359	437	796	151	321	12	8	349	125	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2019	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	19	17	4	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	235	316	235	551		250	5	11	264	60	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2019	21	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	246	211	58	13	2	3	30	43	0	1	1	275	364	398	762	123	325	17	12	339	117	+5	-0	—	—	+7	1.2
2019	21	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	133	188	133	321		250	44	6	157	-22	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2020	22	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	159	144	48	5	2	3	11	20	3	6	0	333	392	458	851	125	369	13	7	378	148	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2021	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	322	274	89	19	5	10	33	63	10	4	2	325	416	540	957	215	383	20	10	414	175	+27	+0	—	—	+9	3.7
2021	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	89	74	26	3	0	4	9	13	5	1	0	351	455	554	1.009	203	379	15	10	442	196	+10	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2021	23	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	137	116	33	3	0	2	17	24	2	2	1	284	385	362	747	78	341	18	12	341	119	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	87	78	15	4	0	2	8	23	1	0	0	192	276	321	596	128	245	26	9	273	67	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2022	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	465	403	128	26	1	18	45	100	10	4	0	318	400	521	921	203	377	22	10	401	165	+34	+1	—	—	+13	4.9
2023	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	103	87	20	4	1	2	13	31	2	0	0	230	343	368	711	138	327	30	13	322	105	+1	+0	-1	-10	+3	-0.7
2023	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	434	357	121	23	0	25	64	87	10	2	2	339	452	613	1.066	275	387	20	15	460	210	+54	-0	—	—	+12	6.7
2024	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	143	128	30	7	0	6	12	32	2	0	0	234	310	430	740	195	264	22	8	327	108	+1	+0	-0	-7	+4	-0.2
2024	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	144	118	28	1	0	7	23	47	2	0	0	237	371	424	794	186	323	33	16	357	132	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2024	26	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	115	94	29	7	2	6	16	19	4	1	0	309	430	617	1.047	309	333	17	14	448	201	+13	+0	—	—	+3	1.7
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	422	370	117	22	0	14	41	107	8	0	2	316	396	489	885	173	409	25	10	391	158	+28	-1	-3	-8	+12	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	755	663	182	37	1	24	74	193	13	0	2	275	359	442	801	167	350	26	10	356	131	+26	-1	-6	-22	+21	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jayson Werthlast yr '17 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,366 PA	15	6,366	229	132	267	360	455	-68	-36	32.0	29.7
	/162	664	24	14	267	360	455	-7.1	-3.7	3.3	pk7: 27
#2Anthony Rizzolast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,336 PA	14	7,336	303	72	261	361	467	-131	-79	28.6	27.3
	/162	664	27	7	261	361	467	-11.9	-7.1	2.6	pk7: 26
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	14	5,946	201	5	271	362	441	-108	-31	25.6	23.9
	/162	664	22	1	271	362	441	-12.1	-3.5	2.9	pk7: 22
#3Justin Morneaulast yr '16 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,392 PA	14	6,392	247	5	281	348	481	-112	-75	22.4	21.6
	/162	664	26	1	281	348	481	-11.6	-7.8	2.3	pk7: 21
#4Brandon Beltlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,483 PA	13	5,483	194	47	261	357	460	-96	-62	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	23	6	261	357	460	-11.7	-7.5	2.3	pk7: 17
#5Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	13	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	26	1	265	327	453	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16
#6Doug Mientkiewiczlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,401 PA	8	3,401	64	12	276	364	414	-47	-13	11.9	12.2
	/162	664	12	2	276	364	414	-9.1	-2.6	2.3	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathan Aranda (OGILVIE)	28	60	60	40	50	292/392/470	178	352	24	0	22%	12%	145	+4.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Brad Hawpe 2007 · MLB	28	56→59	55→60	44→40	58	280/367/476	196	333	21	6	22%	12%	143	+4.7	285/378/509	224	345	25	3	23%	13%	156	+5.6	284/384/515	231	346	26	1	24%	13%	150	+5.1
●Eric Hosmer 2018 · MLB	28	60→65	54→55	46→50	54	303/366/486	183	337	23	6	17%	9%	146	+4.9	277/335/450	173	327	21	5	21%	8%	124	+3.4	275/331/439	163	324	20	4	21%	7%	115	+2.2
●Adam LaRoche 2008 · MLB	28	52→55	58→65	37→40	53	271/342/483	212	310	25	2	21%	10%	135	+4.2	269/340/479	210	321	24	2	23%	10%	134	+4.1	265/337/476	211	320	25	1	24%	10%	123	+3.3
●Luke Voit 2020 · MLB	29	52→56	56→60	42→30	53	263/351/458	195	323	24	2	26%	11%	133	+4.0	252/333/467	215	312	30	2	28%	9%	128	+3.7	235/314/445	209	296	30	1	30%	9%	112	+1.6
●Ty France 2022 · MLB	28	57→60	53→60	43→40	48	289/362/467	178	328	20	2	18%	7%	140	+4.5	267/340/415	148	304	16	2	17%	7%	118	+3.0	254/330/392	138	292	15	1	18%	6%	105	+2.1
✕Jeremy Giambi 2003 · MLB	28	52→58	56→55	38→40	66	266/387/467	201	311	23	2	21%	16%	149	+5.1	246/363/432	186	305	22	6	24%	15%	131	+3.9	195/340/352	156	247	19	4	27%	17%	101	+0.5
★Nick Castellanos 2020 · MLB	28	57→63	58→65	43→45	46	291/342/514	223	342	23	3	22%	7%	144	+4.8	274/329/490	216	323	26	4	23%	7%	132	+4.0	273/321/463	191	329	24	7	24%	6%	118	+3.0
●Andre Ethier 2010 · MLB	28	55→63	57→60	43→45	56	281/360/494	213	302	23	6	16%	10%	145	+4.9	291/365/481	190	333	21	3	18%	10%	144	+4.8	296/369/473	177	344	20	1	19%	10%	134	+4.0
●Justin Morneau 2009 · MLB	28	56→60	57→65	40→30	57	289/361/497	208	299	24	2	13%	10%	146	+4.9	284/365/497	213	303	25	2	15%	11%	148	+5.1	280/364/493	213	299	25	0	15%	11%	136	+3.0
✕Billy Butler 2014 · MLB	28	60→66	52→55	43→30	57	302/375/469	167	334	19	2	16%	10%	145	+4.9	274/339/410	136	313	14	2	16%	8%	115	+2.7	267/329/394	127	305	12	0	16%	8%	101	+1.5
●Willson Contreras 2020 · MLB	28	51→61	56→60	44→45	51	260/343/460	200	309	24	5	24%	10%	130	+3.8	246/344/443	197	299	24	5	25%	10%	127	+3.6	262/360/470	208	325	25	5	26%	10%	136	+3.1
★Marcell Ozuna 2019 · MLB	28	56→62	57→65	42→45	49	292/345/484	192	325	26	3	19%	8%	137	+4.3	270/345/486	216	302	29	7	21%	10%	137	+4.3	269/361/502	233	313	32	0	24%	12%	144	+5.0
●Adam Lind 2010 · MLB	27	55→60	57→60	43→40	49	286/340/494	208	315	25	3	18%	7%	137	+4.3	258/312/451	193	291	25	2	20%	7%	115	+2.7	290/364/477	187	329	21	0	18%	10%	133	+3.2
●Nathaniel Lowe 2023 · MLB	28	56→60	53→55	48→40	51	281/350/454	173	344	21	5	24%	9%	131	+3.9	260/346/413	153	325	17	3	23%	11%	118	+3.0	245/339/389	144	307	16	1	24%	12%	106	+2.3
●Jason Kubel 2010 · MLB	28	55→57	58→60	45→40	54	283/350/495	212	310	25	3	18%	9%	141	+4.6	263/332/457	194	305	23	2	21%	9%	124	+3.4	252/325/446	194	296	24	1	23%	9%	112	+2.3
●Brandon Belt 2017 · MLB	29	58→61	55→65	44→50	58	284/380/492	208	357	20	5	24%	13%	152	+5.3	263/363/464	201	321	21	5	23%	13%	138	+4.4	268/374/517	249	310	30	4	23%	14%	152	+3.5
●Jesse Winker 2021 · MLB	27	51→61	57→55	43→45	60	264/365/466	202	290	25	3	19%	12%	141	+4.5	259/362/444	185	291	22	3	18%	13%	134	+4.1	252/362/415	163	287	19	0	19%	13%	123	+2.5
●Kris Bryant 2020 · MLB	28	55→57	58→65	44→50	57	277/378/495	218	328	24	5	22%	12%	153	+5.4	263/351/466	203	315	23	7	23%	10%	134	+4.1	257/343/451	194	307	22	6	23%	10%	123	+1.7
✕Erubiel Durazo 2005 · MLB	30	57→64	55→65	41→30	61	289/382/484	195	324	22	3	18%	12%	151	+5.3	271/346/431	160	312	18	4	18%	10%	123	+3.3	278/350/430	152	320	19	0	18%	9%	123	+1.3
★Adrián González 2009 · MLB	27	54→64	59→65	44→30	54	282/354/501	219	314	27	1	20%	10%	145	+4.9	292/388/525	233	317	29	2	17%	13%	164	+6.2	301/401/532	231	326	29	1	16%	14%	149	+6.0