Jonathan Aranda — OGILVIE

Jonathan Aranda1B Tampa Bay Rays

Age 28 L/R 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 2.174S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.6 · 2026

wRC+†vL 106130vR 144

AVG/OBP/SLG.271 / .356 / .463

PA423

HR17

K%25

BB%10

xwOBA.359

Barrel%9.5%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

60→60

SPD

40→40

EYE

59↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.174 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+1.5	$12M	+$9M
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+1.3	$11M	+$6M
2029	Arb-4	$6M	+1.0	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$15M		$45M	+$30M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	202	181	36	4	4	1	11	46	7	5	4	.199	.271	.282	.553	.083	.259	23	5	.232	36	-15	-1	+0	-4	+6	-1.3
2017	19	ROK	2 teams	237	221	50	8	1	0	10	54	3	16	5	.226	.269	.271	.541	.045	.296	23	4	.240	42	-16	+1	+0	-4	+7	-1.2
2018	20	ROK	Princeton Rays	144	131	30	6	3	1	8	25	3	0	1	.229	.289	.344	.632	.115	.271	17	6	.276	69	-5	-0	+0	-3	+4	-0.4
2019	21	A	3 teams	281	254	57	10	2	2	23	63	0	1	1	.224	.289	.303	.592	.079	.285	22	8	.259	57	-14	-0	+0	-5	+8	-1.1
2020	22	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	159	144	48	5	2	3	11	20	3	6	0	.333	.392	.458	.851	.125	.369	13	7	—	—	—	—	+0	-3	—	—
2021	23	AA	3 teams	548	485	136	24	6	18	38	135	17	7	3	.280	.354	.466	.820	.186	.348	25	7	.354	129	+18	+0	+0	-10	+16	2.5
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	552	496	133	25	1	17	38	143	11	4	0	.268	.334	.425	.759	.157	.338	26	7	.327	109	+5	+1	-2	+2	+16	2.2
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	537	466	126	23	1	21	55	134	12	2	2	.270	.362	.459	.821	.189	.333	25	10	.357	131	+19	-0	-1	-10	+15	2.4
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	402	351	75	11	0	16	40	122	8	1	0	.214	.308	.382	.690	.168	.274	30	10	.301	89	-5	+0	-0	-7	+11	-0.1
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	422	370	116	21	0	14	41	107	8	0	2	.314	.394	.484	.878	.170	.405	25	10	.377	147	+22	-1	-3	-8	+12	2.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	108	85	19	4	0	4	19	25	1	0	0	.224	.371	.412	.783	.188	.254	23	18	.336	115	+2	+0	-1	-2	+3	0.2
ROS	28	MLB	TB	315	271	73	14	1	13	36	78	5	1	0	.269	.365	.472	.838	.203	.321	25	11	.361	134	+12	+0	-2	-6	+9	1.4
TOT	28	MLB	TB	423	356	92	18	1	17	55	103	6	1	0	.258	.367	.458	.825	.199	.311	24	13	.355	130	+14	+0	-3	-8	+12	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB	TB	415	358	94	18	1	16	48	83	6	0	0	.263	.359	.453	.812	.190	.295	20	12	.359	133	+15	+0	-4	-7	+12	1.6
2028	30	MLB	TB	408	352	91	17	1	16	47	83	6	0	0	.259	.356	.449	.804	.190	.294	20	12	.356	130	+14	+0	-5	-7	+12	1.4
2029	31	MLB	TB	393	339	86	16	0	15	45	82	6	0	0	.254	.351	.434	.785	.180	.292	21	11	.352	128	+12	+0	-5	-7	+11	1.1
2030	32	MLB	TB	374	322	81	15	0	14	43	80	6	0	0	.252	.350	.429	.779	.177	.291	21	11	.347	124	+10	+0	-6	-7	+11	0.8
2031	33	MLB	TB	344	297	73	14	0	12	39	76	5	0	0	.246	.343	.414	.757	.168	.289	22	11	.341	119	+7	+0	-6	-6	+10	0.5
2032	34	MLB	TB	300	259	63	12	0	10	34	69	4	0	0	.243	.340	.405	.745	.162	.287	23	11	.334	114	+5	+0	-7	-5	+8	0.1
2033	35	MLB	TB	248	215	50	9	0	8	28	59	3	0	0	.233	.329	.386	.715	.153	.285	24	11	.326	107	+2	+0	-7	-4	+7	-0.2
2034	36	MLB	TB	191	165	38	7	0	6	21	48	3	0	0	.230	.328	.382	.710	.152	.281	25	11	.316	100	+0	+0	-7	-3	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6472	5677	1456	259	23	203	616	1507	116	43	18	.256	.341	.417	.759	.161	.312	23	10	.324	106	+45	+1	-55	-104	+183	7.3
/ 162G	—			650	570	146	26	2	20	62	151	12	4	2	.256	.342	.414	.756	.158	.312	23	10	.324	106	+5	+0	-6	-10	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	DSL Rays 1	202	175	45	6	5	1	17	32	7	5	4	.257	.347	.366	.712	.109	.308	16	8	.320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+6	0.6
2017	19	ROK	GCL Rays	197	178	51	9	1	0	14	31	3	14	4	.287	.349	.348	.697	.062	.342	16	7	.316	100	-0	+1	—	—	+6	0.7
2017	19	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	40	37	9	2	0	0	2	13	0	2	1	.243	.282	.297	.579	.054	.375	32	5	.257	55	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2018	20	ROK	Princeton Rays	144	126	36	8	4	1	12	18	3	0	1	.286	.359	.437	.796	.151	.321	12	8	.349	125	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2019	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	19	17	4	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	.235	.316	.235	.551	.000	.250	5	11	.264	60	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2019	21	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	246	211	58	13	2	3	30	43	0	1	1	.275	.364	.398	.762	.123	.325	17	12	.339	117	+5	-0	—	—	+7	1.2
2019	21	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	.133	.188	.133	.321	.000	.250	44	6	.157	-22	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2020	22	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	159	144	48	5	2	3	11	20	3	6	0	.333	.392	.458	.851	.125	.369	13	7	.378	148	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2021	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	322	274	89	19	5	10	33	63	10	4	2	.325	.416	.540	.957	.215	.383	20	10	.414	175	+27	+0	—	—	+9	3.7
2021	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	89	74	26	3	0	4	9	13	5	1	0	.351	.455	.554	1.009	.203	.379	15	10	.442	196	+10	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2021	23	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	137	116	33	3	0	2	17	24	2	2	1	.284	.385	.362	.747	.078	.341	18	12	.341	119	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	87	78	15	4	0	2	8	23	1	0	0	.192	.276	.321	.596	.128	.245	26	9	.273	67	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2022	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	465	403	128	26	1	18	45	100	10	4	0	.318	.400	.521	.921	.203	.377	22	10	.401	165	+34	+1	—	—	+13	4.9
2023	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	103	87	20	4	1	2	13	31	2	0	0	.230	.343	.368	.711	.138	.327	30	13	.322	105	+1	+0	-1	-10	+3	-0.7
2023	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	434	357	121	23	0	25	64	87	10	2	2	.339	.452	.613	1.066	.275	.387	20	15	.460	210	+54	-0	—	—	+12	6.7
2024	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	143	128	30	7	0	6	12	32	2	0	0	.234	.310	.430	.740	.195	.264	22	8	.327	108	+1	+0	-0	-7	+4	-0.2
2024	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	144	118	28	1	0	7	23	47	2	0	0	.237	.371	.424	.794	.186	.323	33	16	.357	132	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2024	26	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	115	94	29	7	2	6	16	19	4	1	0	.309	.430	.617	1.047	.309	.333	17	14	.448	201	+13	+0	—	—	+3	1.7
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	422	370	117	22	0	14	41	107	8	0	2	.316	.396	.489	.885	.173	.409	25	10	.391	158	+28	-1	-3	-8	+12	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			755	663	182	37	1	24	74	193	13	0	2	.275	.359	.442	.801	.167	.350	26	10	.356	131	+26	-1	-6	-22	+21	1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathan Aranda (OGILVIE)	28	60	60	40	50	.261/.357/.451	.190	.296	17	1	20%	12%	134	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Adam LaRoche 2008 · MLB	28	52→55	58→65	36→40	52	.270/.340/.483	.213	.306	25	2	21%	9%	134	+4.1	.269/.341/.479	.210	.321	24	2	23%	10%	134	+4.1	.264/.336/.471	.206	.320	24	1	24%	10%	121	+3.2
●Andre Ethier 2010 · MLB	28	55→63	56→60	43→45	56	.281/.360/.489	.208	.303	22	5	16%	10%	144	+4.8	.284/.360/.472	.188	.324	20	4	18%	10%	140	+4.5	.284/.358/.453	.169	.331	18	1	19%	10%	124	+3.3
●Jesse Winker 2021 · MLB	27	52→61	55	42→45	60	.267/.367/.458	.191	.294	23	3	18%	12%	139	+4.4	.255/.358/.440	.185	.285	22	3	18%	13%	131	+3.9	.244/.356/.401	.157	.278	18	0	19%	13%	115	+2.1
●Jason Kubel 2011 · MLB	29	52→57	58→60	40	54	.270/.340/.477	.207	.296	26	2	19%	10%	133	+4.0	.256/.325/.444	.188	.307	23	2	23%	9%	118	+3.0	.245/.317/.421	.175	.307	21	1	26%	9%	99	+1.2
●Justin Morneau 2009 · MLB	28	56→61	58→65	40→30	57	.291/.361/.502	.211	.300	25	2	13%	10%	147	+5.0	.285/.366/.505	.220	.301	26	2	15%	11%	150	+5.2	.281/.365/.502	.221	.298	27	0	15%	11%	137	+3.0
●Josh Bell 2021 · MLB	28	50→60	59→65	38→45	58	.261/.350/.477	.215	.291	27	2	20%	12%	137	+4.3	.257/.343/.451	.194	.285	24	2	19%	11%	128	+3.6	.251/.340/.429	.177	.281	21	0	18%	11%	117	+3.0
●Eric Hosmer 2018 · MLB	28	58→64	53→55	46→50	54	.293/.358/.468	.175	.326	22	6	17%	9%	137	+4.3	.273/.332/.436	.163	.323	20	5	21%	8%	118	+3.0	.267/.324/.416	.148	.317	18	4	21%	7%	106	+1.6
●Corey Dickerson 2017 · MLB	28	52→60	58→65	40→50	44	.269/.315/.483	.215	.315	25	4	23%	6%	124	+3.4	.277/.318/.477	.200	.326	22	5	22%	5%	124	+3.4	.284/.323/.479	.195	.329	21	5	20%	5%	120	+2.5
★Adrián González 2009 · MLB	27	55→64	59→65	43→30	53	.284/.354/.500	.216	.316	27	1	20%	9%	144	+4.8	.288/.384/.521	.233	.312	30	2	17%	13%	161	+6.0	.298/.399/.529	.230	.321	29	1	16%	14%	146	+5.7
●Nick Castellanos 2020 · MLB	28	55→60	57→65	42→45	46	.280/.332/.496	.216	.326	23	3	22%	7%	134	+4.1	.267/.322/.480	.213	.313	26	4	23%	7%	127	+3.6	.268/.316/.454	.186	.323	23	7	24%	6%	114	+2.7
●Ty France 2022 · MLB	28	57→60	54→60	42→40	47	.287/.360/.470	.183	.327	21	2	19%	7%	140	+4.5	.268/.341/.413	.145	.306	16	2	17%	7%	118	+3.0	.253/.329/.384	.131	.293	14	1	18%	6%	102	+1.9
✕Luke Voit 2020 · MLB	29	52→55	57→60	42→30	52	.266/.351/.466	.200	.325	24	2	25%	10%	134	+4.1	.252/.334/.460	.208	.314	28	2	28%	10%	127	+3.6	.233/.312/.430	.197	.296	28	1	30%	9%	108	+1.4
●Willson Contreras 2020 · MLB	28	50→60	57→60	43→45	52	.258/.342/.460	.202	.304	25	5	23%	10%	129	+3.7	.245/.342/.447	.202	.295	25	5	25%	10%	127	+3.6	.257/.354/.454	.198	.315	24	6	25%	10%	130	+3.0
●Lucas Duda 2015 · MLB	29	47→54	55→65	39→30	55	.244/.339/.430	.187	.294	24	3	25%	12%	121	+3.2	.245/.342/.472	.227	.287	29	3	25%	11%	133	+4.0	.233/.335/.482	.249	.266	32	0	26%	12%	124	+2.4
★Brad Hawpe 2008 · MLB	29	56→59	58→60	41→40	59	.285/.375/.502	.218	.335	24	4	22%	13%	153	+5.4	.280/.374/.499	.219	.344	24	3	24%	13%	152	+5.3	.273/.372/.485	.212	.339	23	2	24%	13%	139	+3.7
★Aubrey Huff 2004 · MLB	27	57→60	57→60	41→45	52	.295/.348/.501	.206	.302	25	4	13%	7%	143	+4.7	.285/.348/.483	.198	.292	25	5	12%	8%	137	+4.3	.271/.349/.470	.199	.285	23	3	14%	10%	127	+3.9
●Justin Bour 2017 · MLB	29	51→55	56→60	46→40	51	.266/.327/.453	.187	.293	25	3	19%	8%	121	+3.2	.255/.341/.463	.208	.294	28	3	23%	11%	130	+3.8	.240/.337/.448	.208	.280	29	2	25%	12%	115	+2.0
●Brandon Belt 2017 · MLB	29	54→60	55→65	43→50	57	.268/.362/.467	.199	.334	20	5	24%	12%	139	+4.4	.255/.356/.456	.201	.309	22	5	23%	13%	134	+4.1	.258/.365/.496	.239	.296	29	4	23%	14%	140	+3.0
●Adam Lind 2011 · MLB	28	52→61	55→60	45→40	48	.266/.320/.459	.193	.301	22	2	20%	7%	120	+3.1	.259/.314/.442	.183	.293	24	2	20%	7%	113	+2.6	.286/.360/.473	.187	.323	21	0	18%	10%	129	+3.0
●Mike Jacobs 2008 · MLB	27	51→54	58→65	43→40	47	.268/.322/.480	.212	.308	25	3	22%	7%	127	+3.6	.243/.300/.447	.204	.281	26	3	24%	7%	109	+2.4	.228/.285/.420	.193	.261	26	1	24%	7%	91	+0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)