Willson Contreras

1B Boston Red Sox

Age 35 R/R 6'0" / 240 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 10.628 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	32	MLBSTL	358	.262/.380/.468	15	4	144	3.6
2025	33	MLBSTL	563	.257/.346/.447	20	5	125	2.0
2026	34	MLBBOS	535	.275/.388/.516	27	3	150	3.7
2027PROJ	35	MLBBOS	370	.266/.369/.496	18	4	140	2.5
2028PROJ	36	MLBBOS	272	.252/.355/.465	12	1	128	0.8
2029PROJ	37	MLBBOS	205	.239/.340/.433	8	0	117	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.628First FA2028Options2NTC

2027Ext$18M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA90

Bat Spd90

Barrel%82

Avg EV71

Speed46

Form.251/.359/.478 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .260/.361/.489

CompsJosh Willingham (age 34) · Jermaine Dye (age 35) · Darin Ruf (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 143140vR 129

AVG/OBP/SLG.266 / .369 / .496

PA370

HR18

K%25

BB%10

BABIP319

ISO235

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

560.256

POWER

Barrel%

8213.0

Avg EV

7190.6

Bat Spd

9076.1

SPEED

Sprint

4627.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%27%▼30% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 25%

BB%11%▲13% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.227·.208 over 24 AB (60d) · proj .229

BABIP.308·.286 over 14 BIP (60d) · proj .308

SLASH.251/.359/.478·proj .260/.361/.489

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1032 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

266

766

—

wRC+

143

124

◀L

wOBA

379

351

◀L

ISO

221

186

◀◀L

BABIP

324

327

—

24.4%

26.9%

◀L

BB%

13.2%

8.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.628 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$18M	+2.5	$20M	+$2M
Totals		$18M		$20M	+$2M

Options · projected decision
2028	CLUB OPT	$17.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$17.5M / $5.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 2	—	130	112	23	5	2	1	10	26	6	2	2	205	305	312	617	107	259	20	8	282	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK	DSL Cubs 2	—	74	64	20	2	1	0	8	6	2	2	0	312	405	375	780	62	345	8	11	360	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A	Kane County Cougars	—	344	309	76	11	5	10	26	66	7	8	3	246	319	411	730	165	282	19	8	324	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	17	15	5	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	333	412	400	812	67	500	29	12	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	317	281	68	14	2	5	28	66	5	5	5	242	322	359	681	117	297	21	9	307	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	74	66	18	1	1	5	6	20	0	0	0	273	333	545	879	273	302	27	8	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	521	454	151	34	4	8	57	62	7	4	4	333	415	478	893	145	370	12	11	397	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	61	53	15	5	0	3	7	9	0	0	0	283	367	547	914	264	286	15	11	392	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	283	252	71	14	1	12	26	67	4	2	2	282	358	488	846	206	339	24	9	373	139	+13	-0	+8	+9	+6	3.6
2016	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	240	204	72	16	3	9	28	32	6	4	4	353	445	593	1.039	240	382	13	12	450	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	428	377	104	21	0	21	45	98	3	5	4	276	358	499	856	223	319	23	11	375	139	+20	-1	-0	+8	+9	3.7
2018	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	544	474	118	27	5	10	53	121	13	4	1	249	341	390	731	141	313	22	10	329	105	+3	+0	-4	+10	+12	2.1
2019	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	409	360	98	18	2	24	38	102	9	1	2	272	356	533	890	261	314	25	9	387	147	+23	-1	-2	+7	+9	3.7
2020	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	225	189	46	10	0	7	20	57	14	1	2	243	359	407	766	164	307	25	9	346	119	+5	-1	+6	+4	+5	2.0
2021	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	483	413	98	20	0	21	52	138	14	5	4	237	342	438	781	201	298	29	11	347	121	+12	-1	+6	+9	+10	3.7
2022	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	487	416	101	23	2	22	45	103	24	4	2	243	351	466	817	224	270	21	9	362	132	+18	+0	+3	+9	+11	4.1
2023	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	495	428	113	27	0	20	51	111	13	6	3	264	360	467	827	203	311	22	10	366	137	+22	+0	-1	+9	+11	4.1
2024	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	358	301	79	17	0	15	45	96	12	4	1	262	380	468	848	206	337	27	13	379	144	+19	+0	+2	+7	+8	3.6
2024	32	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	22	21	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	143	182	143	325		188	23	5	155	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	490	126	31	1	20	44	142	23	5	1	257	346	447	793	190	319	25	8	351	125	+17	+1	-0	-10	+12	2.0
2026	34	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	535	448	123	21	3	27	59	135	24	3	3	275	388	516	904	241	332	25	11	396	150	+32	-1	+3	-10	+12	3.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4810	4148	1077	229	14	199	478	1170	153	40	25	260	357	466	823	206	313	24	10	364	133	+186	-2	+20	+51	+104	36.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	130	115	15	3	1	0	7	32	6	2	2	130	219	174	393	43	181	25	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	74	66	14	1	1	0	6	7	2	2	0	212	297	258	555	45	238	9	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	344	317	63	9	4	8	18	92	7	8	3	199	257	328	585	129	249	27	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	317	289	60	13	2	4	20	98	5	5	5	208	271	308	579	100	289	31	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	521	469	146	34	4	6	42	78	7	4	4	311	376	439	816	128	357	15	8	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	283	252	71	14	1	12	26	67	4	2	2	282	358	488	846	206	339	24	9	373	139	+13	-0	+8	+9	+6	3.6
2016	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	240	213	71	16	3	8	19	40	6	4	4	333	403	549	953	216	371	17	8	411	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	428	379	104	20	0	22	43	98	3	5	4	274	353	501	854	227	319	23	10	373	139	+20	-1	-0	+8	+9	3.7
2018	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	544	476	116	26	4	10	51	121	13	4	1	244	333	378	711	134	313	22	9	324	105	+3	+0	-4	+10	+12	2.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	409	362	98	17	2	25	36	102	9	1	2	271	351	536	887	265	314	25	9	385	147	+23	-1	-2	+7	+9	3.7
2020	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	225	190	46	10	0	7	19	57	14	1	2	242	354	405	760	163	307	25	8	344	119	+5	-1	+6	+4	+5	2.0
2021	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	483	414	98	19	0	22	51	138	14	5	4	237	340	442	782	205	298	29	11	347	121	+12	-1	+6	+9	+10	3.7
2022	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	487	416	101	22	2	23	45	103	24	4	2	243	351	471	822	228	270	21	9	363	132	+18	+0	+3	+9	+11	4.1
2023	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	495	428	114	26	0	22	51	111	13	6	3	266	362	481	843	215	311	22	10	371	137	+22	+0	-1	+9	+11	4.1
2024	32	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	358	303	79	16	0	16	43	96	12	4	1	261	374	472	846	211	337	27	12	381	144	+19	+0	+2	+7	+8	3.6
2024	32	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	22	21	3	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	143	182	143	325		168	27	5	121	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	492	127	30	1	22	43	142	23	5	1	258	346	457	803	199	319	25	8	354	125	+17	+1	-0	-10	+12	2.0
2026	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	535	450	121	19	3	28	57	135	24	3	3	269	380	511	892	242	332	25	11	390	150	+32	-1	+3	-10	+12	3.7
2009	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	130	115	15	3	1	0	7	32	6	2	2	130	219	174	393	43	181	25	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 2	—	130	112	23	5	2	1	10	26	6	2	2	205	305	312	617	107	259	20	8	282	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	74	66	14	1	1	0	6	7	2	2	0	212	297	258	555	45	237	9	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 2	—	74	64	20	2	1	0	8	6	2	2	0	312	405	375	780	62	345	8	11	360	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	361	334	67	10	4	9	18	96	7	8	3	201	256	335	592	135	252	27	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	361	324	81	12	5	10	28	71	7	8	3	250	323	410	734	160	291	20	8	326	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	391	356	74	16	2	5	25	120	5	5	5	208	269	306	576	98	294	31	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	391	347	86	15	3	10	34	86	5	5	5	248	324	395	719	147	298	22	9	319	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	582	524	163	38	4	7	47	87	7	4	4	311	375	439	814	128	359	15	8	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	582	507	166	39	4	11	64	71	7	4	4	327	410	485	895	158	361	12	11	396	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	523	465	142	29	4	21	45	107	10	6	6	305	379	520	899	215	356	20	9	391	150	+31	-1	+8	+9	+11	6.0
2016	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	523	456	143	30	4	21	54	99	10	6	6	314	398	535	933	221	360	19	10	408	150	+31	-1	+8	+9	+11	6.0
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	428	379	104	20	0	22	43	98	3	5	4	274	353	501	854	227	314	23	10	373	139	+20	-1	-0	+8	+9	3.7
2017	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	428	377	104	21	0	21	45	98	3	5	4	276	358	499	856	223	319	23	11	375	139	+20	-1	-0	+8	+9	3.7
2018	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	544	476	116	26	4	10	51	121	13	4	1	244	333	378	711	134	305	22	9	324	105	+3	+0	-4	+10	+12	2.1
2018	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	544	474	118	27	5	10	53	121	13	4	1	249	341	390	731	141	313	22	10	329	105	+3	+0	-4	+10	+12	2.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	409	362	98	17	2	25	36	102	9	1	2	271	351	536	887	265	308	25	9	385	147	+23	-1	-2	+7	+9	3.7
2019	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	409	360	98	18	2	24	38	102	9	1	2	272	356	533	890	261	314	25	9	387	147	+23	-1	-2	+7	+9	3.7
2020	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	225	190	46	10	0	7	19	57	14	1	2	242	354	405	760	163	305	25	8	344	119	+5	-1	+6	+4	+5	2.0
2020	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	225	189	46	10	0	7	20	57	14	1	2	243	359	407	766	164	307	25	9	346	119	+5	-1	+6	+4	+5	2.0
2021	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	483	414	98	19	0	22	51	138	14	5	4	237	340	442	782	205	295	29	11	347	121	+12	-1	+6	+9	+10	3.7
2021	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	483	413	98	20	0	21	52	138	14	5	4	237	342	438	781	201	298	29	11	347	121	+12	-1	+6	+9	+10	3.7
2022	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	487	416	101	22	2	23	45	103	24	4	2	243	351	471	822	228	267	21	9	363	132	+18	+0	+3	+9	+11	4.1
2022	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	487	416	101	23	2	22	45	103	24	4	2	243	351	466	817	224	270	21	9	362	132	+18	+0	+3	+9	+11	4.1
2023	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	495	428	114	26	0	22	51	111	13	6	3	266	362	481	843	215	310	22	10	371	137	+22	+0	-1	+9	+11	4.1
2023	31	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	495	428	113	27	0	20	51	111	13	6	3	264	360	467	827	203	311	22	10	366	137	+22	+0	-1	+9	+11	4.1
2024	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	380	324	82	16	0	16	44	102	12	4	1	253	363	451	814	198	320	27	12	366	134	+15	+0	+2	+7	+8	3.3
2024	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	380	322	82	17	0	15	46	101	12	4	1	255	368	447	816	193	325	27	12	366	134	+15	+0	+2	+7	+8	3.3
2025	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	492	127	30	1	22	43	142	23	5	1	258	346	457	803	199	316	25	8	354	125	+17	+1	-0	-10	+12	2.0
2025	33	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	490	126	31	1	20	44	142	23	5	1	257	346	447	793	190	319	25	8	351	125	+17	+1	-0	-10	+12	2.0
2026	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	535	450	121	19	3	28	57	135	24	3	3	269	380	511	892	242	321	25	11	390	150	+32	-1	+3	-10	+12	3.7
2026	34	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	535	448	123	21	3	27	59	135	24	3	3	275	388	516	904	241	332	25	11	396	150	+32	-1	+3	-10	+12	3.7
2009	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	130	116	15	3	1	0	7	32	6	2	2	129	219	172	391	43	181	25	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	74	66	14	1	1	0	6	7	2	2	0	212	297	258	555	45	238	9	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	361	333	67	10	4	9	18	96	7	8	3	201	256	336	593	135	249	27	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	391	358	74	16	2	5	25	120	5	5	5	207	269	304	574	98	289	31	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	582	523	163	38	4	7	47	87	7	4	4	312	375	440	815	128	357	15	8	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	523	463	142	29	4	21	45	107	10	6	6	307	379	523	902	216	354	20	9	391	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	428	379	104	20	0	22	43	98	3	5	4	274	353	501	854	227	319	23	10	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	544	475	116	26	4	10	51	121	13	4	1	244	333	379	712	135	313	22	9	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	409	361	98	17	2	25	36	102	9	1	2	271	351	537	889	266	314	25	9	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	225	190	46	10	0	7	19	57	14	1	2	242	354	405	760	163	307	25	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	483	415	98	19	0	22	51	138	14	5	4	236	340	441	781	205	298	29	11	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	487	415	101	22	2	23	45	103	24	4	2	243	351	472	823	229	270	21	9	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	495	428	114	26	0	22	51	111	13	6	3	266	362	481	843	215	311	22	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	380	321	82	16	0	16	44	102	12	4	1	255	363	455	818	199	327	27	12	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	492	127	30	1	22	43	142	23	5	1	258	346	457	803	199	319	25	8	354	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	535	449	121	19	3	28	57	135	24	3	3	269	380	512	893	243	332	25	11	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	380	321	82	16	0	16	44	102	12	4	1	255	363	455	818	199	327	27	12	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	492	127	30	1	22	43	142	23	5	1	258	346	457	803	199	319	25	8	354	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	535	449	121	19	3	28	57	135	24	3	3	269	380	512	893	243	332	25	11	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	459	393	101	18	2	22	45	115	18	4	1	260	364	489	854	229	308	25	10	375	140	+22	+0	+7	-8	+10	2.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	370	315	85	16	2	18	37	92	15	4	1	266	369	496	865	229	319	25	10	380	140	+18	+0	+5	-7	+8	2.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	272	233	57	10	1	12	26	70	11	1	0	247	350	459	809	212	296	26	10	358	128	+9	+0	-2	-5	+6	0.8
2029	37	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	205	176	41	6	1	9	19	55	8	0	0	234	336	428	765	195	284	27	9	341	117	+4	+0	-4	-4	+4	0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	272	233	59	11	1	12	26	70	11	1	0	252	355	465	819	212	306	26	10	362	128	+9	+0	-2	-5	+6	0.8
2029	37	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	205	176	42	7	1	8	19	55	8	0	0	239	340	433	774	195	293	27	9	344	117	+4	+0	-4	-4	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5287	4557	1178	247	16	219	523	1295	172	41	25	259	357	464	820	205	312	24	10	363	122	+200	-2	+13	+43	+115	37.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	560	145	30	2	27	64	159	21	5	3	259	356	464	820	205	313	24	10	363	122	+25	-0	+2	+5	+14	4.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7457	6515	1662	332	32	278	670	1775	220	70	44	255	345	444	789	189	307	24	9	348	122	+217	-1	+18	+36	+123	40.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	145	29	3	24	58	155	19	6	4	255	344	444	787	188	309	24	9	348	122	+25	-0	+2	+4	+14	4.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 22 PAwOBA .151 → .121 (−30)K% 22.7% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷0.953	×1.200	—	—	28.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.952	2.94%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.991	×0.930	—	×0.952	16.75%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.920	×0.830	—	×0.952	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .151 → .121; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .188 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 240 PAwOBA .440 → .411 (−30)K% 13.3% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷1.037	×1.290	—	—	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.25%	÷1.034	×0.710	—	×1.048	8.09%
HBP% /PA	2.50%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	2.57%
Singles /BIP	25.58%	÷1.006	×0.900	×1.050	×1.048	25.18%
Doubles /BIP	9.30%	÷0.927	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	8.94%
Triples /BIP	1.74%	÷0.945	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	1.65%
Home runs /BIP	5.23%	÷0.890	×0.780	—	×1.048	4.80%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .440 → .411; ISO .240 → .228; BABIP .382 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AATennessee Smokies · 521 PAwOBA .389 → .354 (−35)K% 11.9% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.90%	÷0.967	×1.220	—	—	15.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.94%	÷0.959	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.97%
HBP% /PA	1.34%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.16%
Singles /BIP	26.79%	÷1.026	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	25.91%
Doubles /BIP	8.67%	÷0.998	×0.910	×1.050	×1.027	8.53%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.058	×0.880	×1.050	×1.027	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	2.04%	÷1.048	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.60%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 112, K 93, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .389 → .354; ISO .145 → .132; BABIP .370 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Daytona Cubs · 317 PAwOBA .301 → .256 (−45)K% 20.8% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.82%	÷0.959	×1.420	—	—	30.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.83%	÷1.044	×0.750	—	×1.012	6.42%
HBP% /PA	1.58%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.48%
Singles /BIP	21.86%	÷0.995	×0.920	×1.037	×1.012	21.20%
Doubles /BIP	6.51%	÷1.006	×0.960	×1.037	×1.012	6.52%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷0.986	×0.810	×1.037	×1.012	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷0.930	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.23%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 97, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .301 → .256; ISO .117 → .102; BABIP .297 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AKane County Cougars · 344 PAwOBA .317 → .255 (−61)K% 19.2% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.19%	÷0.980	×1.360	—	—	26.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.56%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×1.015	5.05%
HBP% /PA	2.03%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.61%
Singles /BIP	20.58%	÷1.091	×0.920	×1.038	×1.015	18.28%
Doubles /BIP	4.53%	÷0.990	×0.830	×1.038	×1.015	4.00%
Triples /BIP	2.06%	÷1.105	×0.910	×1.038	×1.015	1.79%
Home runs /BIP	4.12%	÷0.913	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 118, 2B 98, 3B 121, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .317 → .255; ISO .165 → .138; BABIP .282 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 DSLDSL Cubs 2 · 74 PAwOBA .351 → .247 (−104)K% 8.1% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.11%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	9.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.62%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.91%
Singles /BIP	29.31%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.025	×1.008	20.58%
Doubles /BIP	3.45%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.025	×1.008	2.14%
Triples /BIP	1.72%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.025	×1.008	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .351 → .247; ISO .062 → .040; BABIP .345 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 DSLDSL Cubs 2 · 130 PAwOBA .275 → .191 (−84)K% 20.0% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.51%
HBP% /PA	4.62%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.30%
Singles /BIP	17.44%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	12.73%
Doubles /BIP	5.81%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	3.75%
Triples /BIP	2.33%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	1.16%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.56%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .275 → .191; ISO .107 → .065; BABIP .259 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jayson Werthlast yr '17 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,366 PA	9.6	6,366	229	132	267	360	455	-68	-36	32.1	29.8
/162	664	24	14	-7.1	-3.7	3.3	pk7: 27
#2Ben Oglivie'71-'86 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,598 PA	9.9	6,598	235	87	270*	337*	482*	-78	+18	29.4	26.9
/162	664	24	9	-7.9	+1.8	3.0	pk7: 24
#3Mike Sweeney'95-'10 * career totals — 15 seasons, 5,848 PA	8.8	5,848	215	53	284*	354*	472*	-93	+19	27.4	25.8
/162	664	24	6	-10.5	+2.2	3.1	pk7: 24
#4Aubrey Huff'00-'12 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,786 PA	10.2	6,786	242	37	270*	335*	458*	-92	-24	23.5	23.6
/162	664	24	4	-9.0	-2.3	2.3	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	8.5	5,657	238	44	260	354	468	-104	+20	26.3	22.2
/162	664	28	5	-12.3	+2.4	3.1	pk7: 18
#5Kevin Millar'98-'09 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,382 PA	8.1	5,382	170	7	263*	347*	440*	-87	+27	20.4	18.9
/162	664	21	1	-10.7	+3.4	2.5	pk7: 18
#6Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	8.1	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
/162	664	26	1	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Willson Contreras (OGILVIE)	35	—	—	—	—	258/361/485	227	308	18	4	25%	10%	140	+2.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josh Willingham 2013 · MLB	34	47→53	63→65	46→45	55	255/351/495	240	288	31	5	24%	11%	138	+4.1	228/340/420	192	282	24	4	26%	12%	117	+2.6	207/334/376	169	264	21	2	28%	13%	106	+1.3
●Jermaine Dye 2009 · MLB	35	52→61	64→70	44→45	49	280/337/526	246	293	32	4	18%	7%	140	+4.2	260/334/470	210	281	27	4	18%	9%	126	+3.2	248/336/449	201	266	28	0	19%	11%	123	+2.9
●Darin Ruf 2021 · MLB	35	51→53	58→60	50→40	55	267/349/479	212	311	26	9	23%	11%	132	+3.7	246/345/439	193	313	24	5	27%	12%	122	+3.0	229/335/403	174	296	21	3	28%	13%	111	+1.0
✕Mark Reynolds 2019 · MLB	35	49→56	56→65	43→50	50	251/329/439	189	316	25	3	28%	10%	116	+2.5	226/314/391	165	306	20	8	30%	11%	100	+1.3	159/283/285	126	237	13	7	35%	14%	69	-0.3
●Robinson Chirinos 2019 · MLB	35	44→46	58→60	48→50	50	233/339/438	205	298	26	4	30%	10%	121	+2.9	229/329/416	187	300	22	4	30%	10%	112	+2.2	212/314/387	175	281	21	1	30%	10%	101	+0.6
✕Juan Gonzalez 2004 · MLB	34	54→59	63→65	46→40	44	290/331/526	236	313	32	4	19%	5%	139	+4.1	265/312/452	187	291	24	6	18%	6%	114	+2.3	271/319/434	163	286	22	0	14%	6%	112	+0.5
✕AJ Pollock 2022 · MLB	34	53→61	62→65	50→55	46	282/334/513	231	310	30	11	20%	6%	136	+3.9	243/294/408	165	276	20	6	20%	6%	97	+1.1	226/276/368	142	257	17	3	19%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Olmedo Saenz 2007 · MLB	36	51	60	42→30	48	270/335/494	224	301	28	3	21%	7%	132	+3.6	244/324/428	184	279	22	6	21%	9%	112	+2.2	184/295/333	149	200	18	0	19%	12%	82	+0.0
●José Abreu 2022 · MLB	35	51→61	61→65	45→40	48	270/342/492	222	304	29	2	22%	8%	134	+3.8	260/329/416	156	302	18	2	20%	8%	112	+2.2	254/321/389	135	297	15	0	19%	7%	102	+1.2
●Paul Konerko 2011 · MLB	35	53→58	62→65	43→30	56	283/360/514	231	294	31	2	16%	10%	145	+4.6	282/353/475	193	297	26	2	15%	9%	134	+3.8	274/346/442	168	289	23	0	14%	9%	124	+3.0
✕Tony Clark 2007 · MLB	35	45→55	65→70	47→30	47	254/317/502	248	287	35	3	26%	8%	127	+3.3	238/318/438	200	284	28	3	26%	10%	112	+2.2	220/312/412	192	260	28	0	27%	12%	105	+0.5
✕Ryan Zimmerman 2019 · MLB	34	51→59	60→65	45	49	269/330/493	224	296	28	4	20%	8%	130	+3.5	257/319/446	189	299	23	4	22%	8%	114	+2.4	248/303/432	184	295	23	0	24%	7%	106	+0.8
✕Kit Pellow 2009 · AAA	35	49→55	59→60	45→40	45	264/325/469	205	288	28	5	20%	6%	123	+3.0	245/294/385	140	275	16	5	18%	5%	91	+0.7	232/273/340	108	250	12	1	13%	3%	71	-0.5
●Mo Vaughn 2002 · MLB	34	51	60	48→30	50	265/346/480	215	316	29	4	25%	9%	132	+3.7	250/334/439	189	303	26	3	25%	10%	119	+2.7	255/339/449	194	309	28	0	26%	10%	124	+2.8
●Reggie Sanders 2004 · MLB	36	49→51	64→70	52→55	47	265/328/511	246	293	32	17	22%	7%	133	+3.7	261/317/489	228	301	29	20	23%	7%	124	+3.1	254/311/474	219	295	28	21	24%	7%	119	+1.8
✕David Dellucci 2007 · MLB	33	50→46	61→65	45→50	57	264/358/497	233	300	28	7	22%	12%	140	+4.2	244/316/416	172	288	18	7	21%	8%	106	+1.8	229/294/374	145	276	14	6	22%	6%	89	+0.2
★Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 · MLB	35	46→54	64→70	46→45	56	252/341/495	244	265	32	4	20%	11%	134	+3.8	270/340/513	243	278	34	3	17%	9%	138	+4.1	270/341/506	236	275	33	2	16%	9%	137	+3.7
✕Greg Vaughn 2001 · MLB	36	48→47	62→60	51→50	60	256/357/489	234	293	29	9	23%	13%	138	+4.1	223/322/419	196	264	24	10	24%	12%	109	+2.0	206/307/386	180	242	22	10	25%	12%	98	+0.8
●Edwin Encarnación 2018 · MLB	35	46→56	65→70	47→50	61	259/360/509	250	268	34	3	19%	13%	143	+4.5	240/335/479	239	257	34	3	22%	11%	128	+3.3	227/322/467	240	238	36	1	23%	11%	122	+2.0
●Brandon Belt 2023 · MLB	35	48→58	62→65	46→50	55	255/352/484	230	304	30	5	26%	12%	135	+3.9	251/352/462	211	348	25	4	32%	13%	130	+3.5	251/366/485	234	367	28	0	35%	15%	141	+2.9

Willson Contreras

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps