José Abreu — OGILVIE

José Abreu1B Houston Astros

Age 39 R/R 6'3" / 250 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 226 proj PA

wRC+†vL -9-12vR -18

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .284 / .372

PA226

HR6

K%21

BB%6

ISO146

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 70 / POW 80

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT70

Whiff%

4911.0%

xwOBA

720.334

POWER80

Barrel%

528.5

Avg EV

7090.5

Bat Spd

6673.1

EYE55

Chase%

2736.2%

SPEED30

Sprint

1025.3

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024 · 120 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-9

-18

◀◀L

wOBA

174

162

◀L

ISO

059

076

▶▶R

BABIP

138

146

▶R

13.5%

27.7%

◀◀L

BB%

5.4%

2.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$-0.6M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	622	556	174	34	2	35	51	131	11	3	1	313	382	570	952	257	353	21	8	391	157	+40	+0	-11	-11	+18	3.7
2014	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	622	556	176	35	2	36	51	131	11	3	1	317	385	581	966	264	356	21	8	418	178	+55	+0	-11	-11	+18	5.2
2015	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	668	613	176	33	3	29	39	140	15	0	0	287	345	493	837	206	330	21	6	354	129	+22	+0	-9	-12	+19	2.0
2015	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	668	613	178	34	3	30	39	140	15	0	0	290	348	502	850	212	333	21	6	374	144	+33	+0	-9	-12	+19	3.2
2016	29	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	695	624	181	31	1	24	47	125	15	0	2	290	354	458	813	168	324	18	7	347	124	+19	-1	-11	-12	+20	1.4
2016	29	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	695	624	183	32	1	25	47	125	15	0	2	293	357	468	825	175	327	18	7	362	135	+28	-1	-11	-12	+20	2.3
2017	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	675	621	187	42	6	32	35	119	15	3	0	301	353	543	896	242	327	18	5	378	148	+36	+1	-4	-12	+19	4.1
2017	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	675	621	189	43	6	33	35	119	15	3	0	304	356	552	909	248	330	18	5	394	160	+45	+1	-4	-12	+19	5.1
2018	31	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	553	499	130	35	1	21	37	109	11	2	0	261	325	461	786	200	291	20	7	333	113	+8	+0	-6	-10	+16	0.8
2018	31	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	553	499	132	36	1	22	37	109	11	2	0	265	329	473	802	208	294	20	7	350	126	+16	+0	-6	-10	+16	1.6
2019	32	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	693	634	178	37	1	32	36	152	13	2	2	281	332	494	826	213	317	22	5	350	126	+20	-0	-10	-12	+20	1.8
2019	32	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	693	634	180	38	1	33	36	152	13	2	2	284	335	503	838	219	320	22	5	363	136	+28	-0	-10	-12	+20	2.6
2020	33	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	262	240	75	15	0	18	18	59	3	0	0	312	368	600	968	287	348	23	7	412	173	+22	+0	+0	-5	+7	2.5
2020	33	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	262	240	76	15	0	19	18	59	3	0	0	317	372	617	988	300	350	23	7	426	184	+25	+0	+0	-5	+7	2.8
2021	34	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	659	566	146	29	2	29	61	143	22	1	0	258	353	470	823	212	290	22	9	354	129	+21	+0	-7	-12	+19	2.2
2021	34	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	659	566	148	30	2	30	61	143	22	1	0	261	356	481	836	219	293	22	9	365	138	+28	+0	-7	-12	+19	2.9
2022	35	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	679	601	181	39	0	14	62	110	12	0	0	301	378	436	814	135	347	16	9	359	133	+26	+0	-5	-12	+19	2.9
2022	35	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	679	601	183	40	0	15	62	110	12	0	0	304	381	446	827	141	350	16	9	369	140	+31	+0	-5	-12	+19	3.4
2023	36	MLB	Houston Astros	—	594	540	125	22	1	17	42	130	6	0	1	231	294	370	665	139	271	22	7	292	82	-12	-0	-9	-11	+17	-1.6
2023	36	MLB	Houston Astros	—	594	540	128	23	1	18	42	130	6	0	1	237	299	383	683	146	276	22	7	303	90	-7	-0	-9	-11	+17	-1.0
2024	37	MLB	3 teams	—	239	221	32	6	0	4	8	51	7	0	0	145	199	226	425	81	166	21	3	183	-2	-28	+0	-3	-4	+7	-2.9
2024	37	MLB	3 teams	—	239	221	40	8	0	8	8	51	7	0	0	181	233	326	559	145	194	21	3	248	48	-14	+0	-3	-4	+7	-1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	39	MLB	HOU	—	226	207	47	9	1	6	14	48	3	2	1	227	286	367	653	140	267	21	6	294	83	-4	+0	+1	-4	+6	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	40	MLB	HOU	100%	127	116	25	5	0	3	8	27	2	1	0	216	278	336	614	121	258	21	6	285	76	-3	+0	-9	-2	+4	-1.1
2027	40	MLB	HOU	100%	127	116	26	5	0	4	8	27	2	1	0	224	286	371	656	147	261	21	6	279	72	-4	+0	-9	-2	+4	-1.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6347	5723	1613	333	17	267	440	1273	127	12	6	282	347	486	833	204	317	20	7	364	137	+264	+0	-84	-115	+180	24.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	165	34	2	27	45	130	13	1	1	282	346	485	831	203	317	20	7	364	137	+27	-0	-9	-12	+18	2.5
Career	—			—	6692	6038	1657	337	18	264	458	1344	135	14	7	274	339	467	807	193	310	20	7	345	122	+167	+0	-83	-120	+190	15.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	162	33	2	26	44	131	13	1	1	276	340	473	813	196	313	20	7	345	122	+16	-0	-8	-12	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	622	556	176	35	2	36	51	131	11	3	1	317	385	581	966	264	356	21	8	418	178	+55	+0	-11	-11	+18	5.2
2015	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	668	613	178	34	3	30	39	140	15	0	0	290	348	502	850	212	333	21	6	374	144	+33	+0	-9	-12	+19	3.2
2016	29	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	695	624	183	32	1	25	47	125	15	0	2	293	357	468	825	175	327	18	7	362	135	+28	-1	-11	-12	+20	2.3
2017	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	675	621	189	43	6	33	35	119	15	3	0	304	356	552	909	248	330	18	5	394	160	+45	+1	-4	-12	+19	5.1
2018	31	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	553	499	132	36	1	22	37	109	11	2	0	265	329	473	802	208	294	20	7	350	126	+16	+0	-6	-10	+16	1.6
2019	32	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	693	634	180	38	1	33	36	152	13	2	2	284	335	503	838	219	320	22	5	363	136	+28	-0	-10	-12	+20	2.6
2020	33	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	262	240	76	15	0	19	18	59	3	0	0	317	372	617	988	300	350	23	7	426	184	+25	+0	+0	-5	+7	2.8
2021	34	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	659	566	148	30	2	30	61	143	22	1	0	261	356	481	836	219	293	22	9	365	138	+28	+0	-7	-12	+19	2.9
2022	35	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	679	601	183	40	0	15	62	110	12	0	0	304	381	446	827	141	350	16	9	369	140	+31	+0	-5	-12	+19	3.4
2023	36	MLB	Houston Astros	—	594	540	128	23	1	18	42	130	6	0	1	237	299	383	683	146	276	22	7	303	90	-7	-0	-9	-11	+17	-1.0
2024	37	MLB	Houston Astros	—	120	113	14	2	0	2	4	28	2	0	0	124	168	195	363	71	143	23	3	167	-14	-15	+0	-3	-4	+3	-2.0
2024	37	ROK	FCL Astros	—	24	22	7	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	318	375	545	920	227	316	8	4	404	167	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	37	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	95	86	19	4	0	5	3	21	4	0	0	221	280	442	721	221	226	22	3	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6220	5607	1587	328	17	263	432	1246	125	11	6	283	348	488	836	205	319	20	7	366	138	+268	-0	-75	-113	+176	26.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Paul Konerkolast yr '14 career totals — 15 seasons, 8,694 PA	15	8,694	408	8	280	356	490	-133	-125	36.7	32.4
	/162	664	31	1	280	356	490	-10.2	-9.5	2.8	pk7: 28
#2Adrián Gonzálezlast yr '18 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,002 PA	14	8,002	316	6	287	358	486	-143	-102	32.1	29.7
	/162	664	26	0	287	358	486	-11.9	-8.4	2.7	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	6,573	273	14	281	341	483	-118	-122	29.5	28.4
	/162	664	28	1	281	341	483	-11.9	-12.3	3.0	pk7: 27
#3Anthony Rizzolast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,336 PA	14	7,336	303	72	261	361	467	-131	-79	28.6	27.3
	/162	664	27	7	261	361	467	-11.9	-7.1	2.6	pk7: 26
#4Raul Ibanezlast yr '14 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,916 PA	15	7,916	293	45	274	337	468	-80	-125	24.6	23.4
	/162	664	25	4	274	337	468	-6.7	-10.5	2.1	pk7: 22
#5Justin Morneaulast yr '16 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,392 PA	14	6,392	247	5	281	348	481	-112	-75	22.4	21.6
	/162	664	26	1	281	348	481	-11.6	-7.8	2.3	pk7: 21
#6Kevin Millarlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,972 PA	10	4,972	161	6	273	357	454	-74	-93	13.7	13.9
	/162	664	22	1	273	357	454	-9.8	-12.5	1.8	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
José Abreu (OGILVIE)	39	70	80	30	55	228/284/372	145	267	6	2	21%	6%	83	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hernando Arredondo 2016 · AAA	39	48→56	47→50	42→50	42	241/281/375	133	280	16	5	21%	4%	82	+0.5	234/274/343	109	298	11	9	24%	5%	69	-0.4	231/253/272	41	303	0	5	23%	3%	36	-0.5
●Robert Perez 2007 · AAA	38	51→56	50→55	43→50	43	260/291/403	144	282	19	7	16%	4%	93	+1.3	268/303/425	157	283	21	10	14%	4%	105	+2.1	273/309/427	153	289	20	11	13%	4%	104	+1.5
✕Christian Quintero 2015 · AAA	39	47→57	45→50	40→55	48	231/278/351	120	252	12	7	15%	6%	74	-0.1	238/285/330	92	271	8	6	15%	6%	71	-0.3	247/294/311	64	285	4	3	14%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Mario Valenzuela 2017 · AAA	40	46→56	44→60	38→40	41	229/272/340	111	291	13	5	26%	5%	68	-0.5	230/281/346	116	296	12	6	26%	6%	74	-0.1	224/282/325	100	290	11	1	25%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Serafin Rodriguez 2014 · AAA	39	56→66	42→45	37→50	43	270/297/372	102	291	10	4	12%	3%	86	+0.8	251/289/357	106	291	10	10	17%	4%	79	+0.3	281/312/347	66	327	4	11	15%	3%	82	+0.1
✕Guillermo Velasquez 2007 · AAA	39	46	48→45	38→30	49	236/297/372	137	276	17	4	21%	8%	88	+0.9	215/264/321	106	265	11	6	22%	6%	60	-1.0	201/245/279	78	249	7	2	22%	6%	41	-1.2
✕José Hernández 2008 · MLB	39	44→54	47→55	42→45	43	226/279/359	133	280	16	4	25%	6%	77	+0.1	240/300/351	111	312	10	9	25%	7%	82	+0.5	262/321/369	106	344	7	11	24%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Robert Saucedo 2013 · AAA	37	41→51	54→65	40	46	220/280/393	172	243	23	3	21%	6%	86	+0.8	237/301/424	187	260	27	3	21%	8%	104	+2.0	239/311/435	196	252	30	0	20%	9%	108	+1.2
✕Randy Ruiz 2015 · AAA	37	51→56	51→60	42→40	39	257/298/409	153	329	21	6	28%	5%	98	+1.6	233/273/365	132	310	15	8	29%	5%	76	+0.0	210/235/339	129	283	13	0	30%	2%	49	-0.3
✕Pedro Iturbe 2007 · AAA	38	56	46→45	39→30	40	276/302/400	124	313	14	5	17%	3%	96	+1.5	252/284/352	100	281	10	4	14%	3%	76	+0.0	282/309/369	87	311	8	0	12%	2%	87	+0.5
✕Ray Martinez 2009 · AAA	40	51→56	46→50	44→45	48	256/308/382	127	289	15	7	17%	6%	95	+1.4	273/319/400	127	325	13	8	19%	6%	104	+2.0	325/368/443	118	393	11	6	19%	6%	134	+1.9
✕Ramon Orantes 2014 · AAA	40	58→63	44→45	37→40	43	283/318/393	111	320	12	4	16%	4%	101	+1.8	252/288/342	90	300	8	5	18%	4%	75	-0.0	262/298/332	71	311	6	2	17%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Raul Sanchez 2012 · AAA	39	55	42→45	43→50	46	265/318/367	102	309	9	7	18%	6%	95	+1.4	240/295/354	114	294	10	7	21%	6%	82	+0.5	247/308/343	96	301	7	3	19%	6%	82	+0.2
✕Adan Munoz 2017 · AAA	39	49→55	43→55	42→45	41	239/275/343	104	284	11	3	20%	4%	70	-0.3	231/269/346	115	279	14	6	22%	4%	69	-0.4	222/257/327	105	262	16	2	22%	4%	56	-0.7
✕Clint Barmes 2016 · MLB	37	47→57	43→55	41→50	44	230/284/346	116	281	10	4	22%	6%	76	+0.0	226/283/351	125	276	11	7	22%	6%	76	+0.1	182/223/266	85	224	4	0	20%	3%	26	-0.6
✕Jason Wood 2008 · MLB	38	48→49	46→45	45→40	44	240/290/365	125	299	14	4	24%	6%	82	+0.5	229/278/320	91	285	9	7	22%	5%	66	-0.6	226/274/282	57	278	5	4	20%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Sharnol Adriana 2012 · AAA	41	51→61	47→55	34→60	52	251/325/384	132	284	15	5	17%	8%	102	+1.9	250/315/376	126	293	15	8	19%	8%	96	+1.5	269/329/394	125	315	16	6	19%	7%	102	+0.8
✕Carlos Valencia 2017 · AAA	37	43→53	44→60	43→40	40	217/248/322	105	255	13	5	21%	4%	53	-1.5	222/265/334	112	275	13	7	24%	5%	63	-0.8	203/256/301	98	249	14	0	25%	5%	52	-0.5
✕Juan Canizales 2010 · AAA	39	56→62	40	40→45	46	270/304/357	87	300	8	4	13%	5%	85	+0.7	242/284/354	112	271	11	7	15%	5%	77	+0.1	247/292/367	120	267	12	7	12%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Yuli Gurriel 2023 · MLB	39	54→63	44→55	49→50	52	260/317/386	125	281	11	6	12%	7%	99	+1.7	247/310/377	130	281	12	10	16%	8%	94	+1.3	249/317/381	132	287	12	12	17%	9%	92	+0.7