Shane Baz
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 2.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.79
FIP3.85
K%21.8%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 186 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p2421.7%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p410.322
CT+3.7 (17%)
SI (8%)
CU (33%)
CH (8%)
FB-5.1 (42%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 10 | 10 | 24 | 105 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 2.4 | 12.3% | 16.7% | -4.4% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 5.64 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 10 | 10 | 24 | 105 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 2.4 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 3.80 | 4.37 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 12 | 52 | 244 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.4% | 14.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 4.47 | 4.54 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 12 | 52 | 244 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 1.2% | 4.47 | 3.25 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 17 | 17 | 81 | 342 | 87 | 37 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 2.99 | 3.81 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 17 | 17 | 81 | 342 | 87 | 37 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 2.99 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 92 | 347 | 131 | 16 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 32.2% | 4.6% | 27.6% | 3.4% | 2.05 | 2.81 | +2.6 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 92 | 347 | 131 | 16 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 37.8% | 4.6% | 33.1% | 3.5% | 2.05 | 2.47 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 40 | 170 | 50 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 28.0% | 7.8% | 20.2% | 3.7% | 3.83 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 40 | 170 | 50 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 29.4% | 7.6% | 21.8% | 3.5% | 3.83 | 3.52 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 497 | 113 | 50 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.41 | 3.84 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 497 | 113 | 50 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 3.66 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 166 | 711 | 176 | 64 | 26 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.27 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 166 | 711 | 176 | 64 | 26 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 3.7% | 4.87 | 4.17 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 19 | 19 | 112 | 482 | 99 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 1.9% | 4.19 | 3.47 | +2.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 314 | 68 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.85 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 68 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.90 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 186 | 796 | 167 | 69 | 17 | — | — | 21.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.62 | +3.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 186 | 786 | 167 | 69 | 18 | — | — | 21.3% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 4.05 | 3.65 | +3.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 152 | 62 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.28 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 26 | 156 | 657 | 141 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.44 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 618 | 128 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.64 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 576 | 115 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 152 | 62 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 141 | 61 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.50 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 128 | 59 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 115 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 186 | 1074 | 4532 | 996 | 409 | 140 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.09 | +16.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 76 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 143 | 686 | 2898 | 660 | 283 | 77 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.88 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 845 | 192 | 82 | 23 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Baz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 3.4% | — | 4.45 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 465 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 68 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.19 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 199 | -0.68 | 2.48 | 556 | 68 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 68 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 66 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 65 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.21 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .278 | 5.68 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 139 | +1.47 | 3.17 | 938 | 65 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.72 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.26 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.46 | 1.32 | 650 | 65 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 65 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 63 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 63 |
| Josh Lowey R 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 62 |
| Alec Marsh R 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.91 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 424 | 62 |
| Kodai Senga R 2029 · 3.40 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.40 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .274 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 164 | +1.24 | 3.40 | 330 | 62 |
| Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.42 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.09 | 4.39 | 474 | 62 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 62 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 62 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 278 | 62 |
| Jon Gray R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.40 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .308 | 3.65 | 23.5% | 15.5% | 315 | +0.25 | 2.79 | 1,345 | 62 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.78 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.50 | 25.5% | 16.1% | 139 | -0.28 | 2.34 | 577 | 61 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.19 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .290 | 4.90 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.71 | 3.95 | 489 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 153 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 1.20 | 4.43 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |