Shane Baz — OGILVIE

Shane Baz P Baltimore Orioles

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION169 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.90

FIP3.91

K%21.7%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 184 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

CT+3.7 (15%)

SI (9%)

CU (33%)

CH (9%)

FB-5.1 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.919 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2027	Ext	$1M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2028	Arb-3	$11M	+1.1	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$1M		$20M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	10	10	24	105	19	14	2	100%	2.4	12.3%	16.7%	-4.4%	2.7%	3.80	5.64	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	10	10	24	105	19	14	2	100%	2.4	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	1.9%	3.80	4.37	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	12	12	52	244	59	29	3	100%	4.4	16.4%	14.9%	1.6%	1.7%	4.47	4.54	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	12	12	52	244	59	29	3	100%	4.4	24.2%	11.9%	12.3%	1.2%	4.47	3.25	—
2019	20	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	17	81	342	87	37	5	100%	4.8	18.8%	12.8%	6.1%	1.5%	2.99	3.95	—
2019	20	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	17	81	342	87	37	5	100%	4.8	25.4%	10.8%	14.6%	1.5%	2.99	3.12	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	92	347	131	16	12	100%	4.6	32.2%	4.6%	27.6%	3.4%	2.05	2.82	+2.4
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	92	347	131	16	12	100%	4.6	37.8%	4.6%	33.1%	3.5%	2.05	2.47	+2.8
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	40	170	50	13	6	100%	4.0	28.0%	7.8%	20.2%	3.7%	3.83	3.72	+0.6
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	40	170	50	13	6	100%	4.0	29.4%	7.6%	21.8%	3.5%	3.83	3.52	+0.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	2.3%	3.41	3.77	+1.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	2.3%	3.41	3.77	+1.6
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	22.7%	10.1%	12.7%	2.2%	3.41	3.66	+1.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.6%	4.87	4.10	+1.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.6%	4.87	4.10	+1.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.7%	4.87	4.17	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			83	83	455	1917	443	160	57	100%	5.5	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	3.0%	4.17	3.84	+5.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	169	721	150	57	14	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.9%	4.05	3.36	+3.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	169	721	150	57	14	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.9%	4.05	3.36	+3.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	BAL	29	29	169	721	150	57	14	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.9%	4.05	3.41	+3.1
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	BAL	29	29	169	721	150	57	14	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.9%	4.05	3.41	+3.1
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BAL	3	3	15	65	14	5	2	100%	5.1	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.9%	3.90	3.91	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BAL	2	2	15	63	14	5	2	100%	7.5	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	3.0%	3.97	3.98	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	184	786	164	62	16	—	—	20.9%	7.9%	12.9%	2.0%	4.03	3.41	+3.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	184	778	164	62	16	—	—	21.1%	8.0%	13.1%	2.0%	4.04	3.46	+3.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	163	688	150	58	18	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	2.6%	4.08	4.12	+1.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	26	26	156	657	140	57	18	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.7%	12.6%	2.7%	4.20	4.28	+1.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	146	618	127	55	18	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.0%	11.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.49	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	136	576	114	54	18	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	3.2%	4.58	4.72	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	126	533	101	52	18	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.7%	9.3%	3.4%	4.82	4.98	-0.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	116	489	89	50	18	100%	6.1	18.1%	10.2%	8.0%	3.7%	5.08	5.26	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	163	688	150	58	19	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	2.7%	4.14	4.18	+1.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	156	659	140	57	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.7%	12.6%	2.9%	4.27	4.35	+1.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	146	616	127	55	19	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.56	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	136	574	114	54	19	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.66	4.80	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	126	532	101	52	19	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.7%	9.3%	3.6%	4.90	5.06	-0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	116	490	89	50	19	100%	6.1	18.1%	10.2%	8.0%	3.8%	5.17	5.35	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	226	1314	5544	1178	491	172	100%	5.8	21.2%	8.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.42	4.13	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	75	26	100%	5.8	21.2%	8.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.42	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		153	153	743	3137	708	295	80	100%	4.9	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	2.6%	3.78	3.79	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	844	191	79	22	100%	4.9	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	2.6%	3.78	3.79	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Baz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	24.7%	9.1%	3.3%	—	4.29	21.2%	12.5%	465	-0.04	—	—	—
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	75
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	70
Yordano Ventura R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	17.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	349	69
Hiram Burgos R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	19.7%	9.5%	1.4%	.282	4.34	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.94	3.40	355	69
Joe Kelly R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	19.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.309	3.21	24.6%	14.1%	199	-0.71	2.38	556	68
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	68
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	68
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	68
Wily Peralta R 2016 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP	4.41	17.1%	7.9%	3.2%	.346	4.70	18.8%	6.6%	183	+0.29	3.98	748	67
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	3.64	786	67
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	66
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	66
Lance Lynn R 2015 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.15	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.84	2.85	1,390	66
Graham Ashcraft R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	17.8%	8.3%	3.4%	.285	3.51	20.6%	11.5%	172	-1.02	2.67	569	66
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	66
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	65
Drew Rasmussen R 2022 · 3.22 FIP	27	SP	3.22	21.4%	5.3%	2.3%	.260	3.09	23.8%	17.7%	223	-0.13	1.21	682	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	65
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	144	20.9%	9.1%	1.19	4.46
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14