Shane Baz
P
Baltimore Orioles
+1.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.7 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.39
xFIP4.40
SIERA4.43
K%24.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.7%
IP158
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p3923.7%
K%
p2318.3%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
CT+3.7 (19%)
SI (6%)
CU (33%)
CH (8%)
FB-5.1 (40%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 10 | 10 | 24 | 105 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 12.3% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 12 | 52 | 244 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 16.4% | 14.9% | 1.7% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 17 | 17 | 81 | 342 | 87 | 37 | 5 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 1.5% | 2.99 | 3.94 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 20 | 20 | 92 | 347 | 131 | 16 | 12 | 32.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.05 | 2.82 | +2.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 10 | 10 | 40 | 170 | 50 | 13 | 6 | 28.0% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 3.83 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 24 | 24 | 119 | 497 | 113 | 50 | 11 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 3.80 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 166 | 711 | 176 | 64 | 26 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.11 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 4 | 22 | 97 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 3.62 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 125 | 48 | 16 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 3.93 | +1.9 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 147 | 624 | 144 | 56 | 18 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 3.89 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 25 | 25 | 137 | 577 | 136 | 52 | 18 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 124 | 524 | 121 | 48 | 16 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 106 | 44 | 15 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 93 | 40 | 14 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 81 | 36 | 13 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 76 | 30 | 12 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.58 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 65 | 27 | 11 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 55 | 24 | 10 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 46 | 22 | 9 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 128 | 596 | 2513 | 580 | 250 | 68 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.91 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 843 | 195 | 84 | 23 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Baz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.41 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 373 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.53 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.03 | 3.32 | 537 | 70 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.97 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.21 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 199 | -0.76 | 2.39 | 556 | 69 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.62 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.17 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.45 | 1.32 | 650 | 68 |
| Nate Long R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.69 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 151 | 68 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .282 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.92 | 3.42 | 355 | 68 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.94 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .339 | 3.53 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.41 | 2.40 | 643 | 67 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.69 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 278 | 67 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.40 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.33 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 66 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 3.36 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.94 | 533 | 66 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.12 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.24 | 3.93 | 368 | 66 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.27 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .287 | 4.12 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 622 | 66 |
| Manuel Flores R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.00 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .317 | 3.58 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.42 | 3.48 | 515 | 65 |
| Greg Peavey R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.37 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 147 | 65 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .277 | 4.94 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 55 | +1.15 | 3.79 | 254 | 65 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.62 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.63 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +1.01 | 3.62 | 786 | 65 |
| Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.43 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.50 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.07 | 4.37 | 474 | 65 |
| Brandon Sinnery R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 154 | 64 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.67 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .271 | 3.44 | 25.5% | 16.1% | 139 | -0.23 | 2.27 | 577 | 64 |
| Thad Weber R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 64 |
| Kyle Drabek R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.93 | 12.8% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .271 | 4.17 | 11.3% | 0.7% | 69 | +0.24 | 3.93 | 206 | 64 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2021
Service 5.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.7 | $14M | +$12M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.5 | $12M | +$5M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +1.2 | $10M | -$0.6M |
| 2029 | Ext / FA-deal | $22M | +1.0 | $9M | -$13M |
| 2030 | Ext / FA-deal | $26M | +0.8 | $4M | -$22M |
| Totals | $68M | $48M | -$20M | ||