Shane Baz

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	119	3.41	3.66	22.7%	10.1%	2.5	K 21.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.75
2025	26	MLBTB	31	31	166	4.87	4.17	24.8%	9.0%	2.4
2026	27	MLBBAL	31	31	180	4.11	3.51	20.0%	8.1%	4.2
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	23	23	136	4.13	4.07	22.3%	8.4%	2.1
2028PROJ	29	MLBBAL	18	18	106	4.26	4.30	21.7%	8.7%	1.5
2029PROJ	30	MLBBAL	14	14	85	4.41	4.51	21.0%	9.0%	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.919First FA2029

2027Ext$1M2028Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo68

xwOBA vs45

K%35

Form4.45 ERA (proj 4.13) · K 15.3% (proj 22.3%) · BB 8.9% (proj 8.4%) ▼▼ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsBud Norris (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Luke Hochevar (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.13

FIP4.07

K%22.3%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.919 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$1M	+2.1	$17M	+$16M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$9M		$28M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	10	10	24	105	19	14	2	100%	2.4	12.3%	16.7%	-4.4%	2.7%	3.80	5.64	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	10	10	24	105	19	14	2	100%	2.4	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	1.9%	3.80	4.37	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	12	12	52	244	59	29	3	100%	4.4	16.4%	14.9%	1.6%	1.7%	4.47	4.54	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	12	12	52	244	59	29	3	100%	4.4	24.2%	11.9%	12.3%	1.2%	4.47	3.25	—
2019	20	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	17	81	342	87	37	5	100%	4.8	18.8%	12.8%	6.1%	1.5%	2.99	3.95	—
2019	20	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	17	81	342	87	37	5	100%	4.8	25.4%	10.8%	14.6%	1.5%	2.99	3.12	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	92	347	131	16	12	100%	4.6	32.2%	4.6%	27.6%	3.4%	2.05	2.82	+3.0
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	92	347	131	16	12	100%	4.6	37.8%	4.6%	33.1%	3.5%	2.05	2.47	+3.4
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	40	170	50	13	6	100%	4.0	28.0%	7.8%	20.2%	3.7%	3.83	3.72	+0.8
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	40	170	50	13	6	100%	4.0	29.4%	7.6%	21.8%	3.5%	3.83	3.52	+0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.3%	3.41	3.75	+2.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.3%	3.41	3.75	+2.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	22.7%	10.1%	12.7%	2.2%	3.41	3.66	+2.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.6%	4.87	4.10	+2.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.6%	4.87	4.10	+2.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.7%	4.87	4.17	+2.4
2026	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	180	769	154	62	15	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.1%	12.0%	1.9%	4.11	3.45	+4.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	180	769	154	62	15	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.1%	12.0%	1.9%	4.11	3.45	+4.3
2026	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	180	769	154	62	15	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.1%	12.0%	2.0%	4.11	3.51	+4.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	85	466	1965	447	165	58	100%	5.5	22.7%	8.4%	14.4%	3.0%	4.19	3.86	+8.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	23	23	136	574	128	48	15	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	2.6%	4.13	4.07	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	106	448	97	39	12	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	2.7%	4.19	4.23	+1.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	85	358	75	32	10	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.44	+0.9
2030	31	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	67	284	57	26	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.54	4.67	+0.6
2031	32	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	50	213	41	21	7	100%	6.3	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.4%	4.77	4.93	+0.3
2032	33	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	35	148	27	15	5	100%	5.8	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	3.7%	5.03	5.21	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	106	448	97	39	13	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	2.8%	4.26	4.30	+1.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	85	359	75	32	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.41	4.51	+1.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	67	283	57	26	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.75	+0.6
2031	32	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	50	211	41	20	7	100%	6.2	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.5%	4.85	5.01	+0.3
2032	33	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	35	148	27	15	6	100%	5.8	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	3.8%	5.12	5.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	809	3415	745	298	104	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.03	+13.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	184	74	26	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.03	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		155	155	754	3185	714	300	81	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.80	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	845	189	80	21	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.80	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 39 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.42 (+0.15)K% 24.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.72%	—	×0.860	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.92%	—	×0.900	11.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.061	×1.100	1.16%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 13 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.40 (+0.50)K% 37.7% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.74%	—	×0.880	33.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.050	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.034	×1.100	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 46 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.17 (+0.48)K% 36.0% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.96%	—	×0.880	31.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.18%	—	×1.050	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷1.059	×1.100	3.50%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 33 IPFIP 1.24 → 2.30 (+1.06)K% 40.8% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.83%	—	×0.810	33.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.67%	—	×1.100	1.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.938	×1.200	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.24 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 81 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.95 (+0.82)K% 25.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.44%	—	×0.740	18.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.82%	—	×1.180	12.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷1.270	×1.300	1.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 154).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKPrinceton Rays · 52 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.54 (+1.30)K% 24.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.680	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.89%	—	×1.250	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.72%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKGCL Pirates · 24 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.64 (+1.33)K% 18.1% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.10%	—	×0.680	12.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.250	16.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.67%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Baz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.41	21.1%	12.2%	258	+0.34	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	73
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	70
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	69
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	68
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	65
Matt Clement R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	20.1%	9.0%	2.6%	.253	4.00	19.9%	10.6%	437	+0.03	2.56	1,413	64
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	64
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	63
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	63
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	63
Brian Lawrence R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	13.9%	5.5%	3.0%	.296	4.02	12.8%	6.6%	225	-0.24	3.33	963	63
Darren Dreifort R 2000 · 4.77 FIP	28	SP	4.77	19.5%	10.2%	3.7%	.257	3.86	23.4%	12.7%	155	-0.91	2.87	873	63
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	2.94	1,185	62
Dave Bush R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	14.3%	5.9%	3.8%	.231	4.65	15.1%	8.1%	326	-0.08	3.65	1,141	62
Lance Lynn R 2015 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.15	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.84	2.85	2,006	62
Max Scherzer R 2012 · 3.23 FIP	28	SP	3.23	29.4%	7.4%	3.0%	.328	2.71	29.1%	23.4%	663	-0.52	2.13	3,078	62
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	62
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	61
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	61
Orlando Hernandez R 2000 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	17.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.255	4.38	18.6%	11.3%	241	-0.30	3.35	1,315	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	95	21.9%	8.7%	1.13	4.28
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Mike Paul ('68-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	105	22.4%*	8.7%*	1.22*	4.77*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86