Jagger Beck
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 19
RHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.0 · 2032
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | 3 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 3.3 | 31.8% | 13.6% | 18.2% | 4.5% | 5.40 | 4.64 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | 3 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 3.3 | 31.8% | 13.6% | 18.2% | 4.5% | 5.40 | 4.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 14 | 8 | 53 | 222 | 62 | 26 | 1 | 57% | 3.8 | 20.7% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 0.6% | 2.91 | 3.43 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 90 | 378 | 98 | 41 | 6 | — | — | 26.0% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 1.5% | 3.49 | 3.80 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 41 | 171 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 43 | 180 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 7.1 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 44 | 187 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 7.4 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 45 | 191 | 50 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.4% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.75 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 51 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.6 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 18.9% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 52 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.6 | 26.7% | 7.6% | 19.1% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.67 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 45 | 191 | 51 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 26.7% | 7.7% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.71 | 3.71 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 44 | 185 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 7.3 | 26.6% | 7.9% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 7.5 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 7.2 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 40 | 169 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.7 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 42 | 177 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.0 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.79 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 43 | 182 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 3.79 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 44 | 186 | 50 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.3 | 26.7% | 7.6% | 19.1% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.71 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 43 | 182 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.2 | 26.7% | 7.7% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 42 | 177 | 47 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.0 | 26.6% | 7.9% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 49 | 337 | 1423 | 368 | 114 | 41 | 100% | 6.9 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 17.9% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.49 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 29 | 29 | 200 | 844 | 218 | 68 | 24 | 100% | 6.9 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 17.9% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 9 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 37 | 3 | 53% | 3.7 | 22.5% | 13.8% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 3.30 | 3.63 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 29 | 200 | 849 | 191 | 117 | 11 | 53% | 3.7 | 22.5% | 13.8% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 3.30 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jagger Beck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.09 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 122 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 86 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.45 | 3.05 | 483 | 84 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.12 | 386 | 83 |
| David Lorduy R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.19 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .267 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 155 | +0.22 | 3.33 | 241 | 82 |
| Connor Cooke R 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 82 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.14 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .352 | 4.24 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.10 | 3.14 | 130 | 82 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.47 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .361 | 8.04 | 18.1% | 2.1% | 88 | +3.57 | 2.62 | 179 | 82 |
| Cristian Javier R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.40 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .278 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 13.2% | 250 | +0.34 | 2.69 | 914 | 81 |
| Jose Acuna R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.34 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .242 | 4.99 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 207 | +1.65 | 3.34 | 356 | 81 |
| Anderson Brito R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.39 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .231 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 82 | +0.44 | 3.24 | 135 | 80 |
| Alexander Cornielle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.08 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 2.2% | .329 | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 312 | +0.26 | 3.85 | 502 | 80 |
| Adolfo Oviedo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.98 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .272 | 4.74 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 90 | +0.76 | 3.79 | 201 | 80 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.7% | .321 | 3.68 | 25.3% | 18.8% | 132 | -0.85 | 3.55 | 276 | 79 |
| Porter Hodge R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 79 |
| Adrian Ardines R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.08 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 114 | 79 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.21 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .239 | 6.50 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.29 | 4.21 | 129 | 79 |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 78 |
| Peyton Remy R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.82 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.25 | 3.57 | 286 | 78 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 78 |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.2% | 2.3% | 151 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 186 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 43 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 1.08 | 3.93 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Will Smith ('24) | 8 | 56 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 1.07 | 3.60 |