Jagger Beck — OGILVIE

Jagger Beck P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 19 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.1 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%22.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$57M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.3	$6M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$13M		$30M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.64	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.64	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.7%	2.80	3.35	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.7%	2.80	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	HOU	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	28.9%	11.0%	17.8%	0.6%	2.80	2.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	376	87	39	11	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.47	4.42	+0.5
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	94	395	92	38	11	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.8%	4.35	4.27	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	98	415	101	37	12	100%	6.1	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.09	+0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	102	431	107	37	12	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	2.7%	4.05	3.96	+1.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	104	441	112	37	12	100%	5.8	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.7%	3.94	3.87	+1.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	106	447	115	36	12	100%	5.9	25.8%	8.2%	17.6%	2.7%	3.86	3.81	+1.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	106	447	116	36	12	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	2.7%	3.82	3.79	+1.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	104	440	114	36	12	100%	6.1	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	2.7%	3.82	3.83	+1.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	101	427	111	36	12	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.3%	17.5%	2.8%	3.87	3.91	+1.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	97	408	105	35	12	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	3.0%	3.97	4.04	+1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	91	383	97	34	12	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	3.2%	4.12	4.22	+0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	358	89	33	12	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	3.4%	4.30	4.42	+0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	78	331	87	29	12	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	3.7%	4.35	4.38	+0.5
2027	20	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	44	186	43	19	5	100%	6.3	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	68	287	67	28	8	100%	6.2	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.23	+0.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	85	31	9	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	2.7%	4.15	4.05	+0.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	92	388	97	33	10	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	2.7%	4.01	3.92	+1.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	96	405	103	34	11	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.6%	3.90	3.83	+1.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	99	418	108	34	11	100%	5.8	25.8%	8.2%	17.6%	2.6%	3.82	3.77	+1.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	101	426	111	35	11	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	2.6%	3.78	3.75	+1.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	99	418	109	34	11	100%	6.2	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	2.7%	3.78	3.79	+1.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	96	405	105	34	11	100%	6.0	25.9%	8.3%	17.5%	2.8%	3.83	3.87	+1.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	92	388	100	33	11	100%	6.1	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.9%	3.92	3.99	+0.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	86	363	92	32	11	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	3.1%	4.07	4.17	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	80	338	84	31	11	100%	6.2	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.37	+0.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	74	312	83	28	11	100%	6.2	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	3.6%	4.29	4.32	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	185	1110	4687	1186	406	133	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	2.8%	4.01	3.62	+17.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	214	73	24	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	2.8%	4.01	3.62	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		25	16	97	397	89	52	5	64%	3.9	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	1.2%	3.07	3.49	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	33	200	821	185	108	10	64%	3.9	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	1.2%	3.07	3.49	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jagger Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.8%	11.3%	2.9%	—	4.25	23.6%	14.0%	281	-0.35	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	83
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	82
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	81
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	81
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	81
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	80
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	80
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	80
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	79
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	79
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Cristian Javier R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	19	SW	3.40	22.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.278	3.75	26.6%	13.2%	250	+0.35	2.69	954	78
Patricio Aquino R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP	4.24	21.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.321	3.95	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.29	3.54	313	78
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	78
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	78
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	78
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	78
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	77
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	91	25.1%	8.8%	1.13	4.08
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17