Jagger Beck

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 20 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.3 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#212ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKHOU	3	1	10	5.40	4.70	31.8%	13.6%	—	K 31.8% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.64
2026	19	AHOU	22	15	87	2.80	2.40	28.9%	11.0%	—	K 21.4% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.35
2027PROJ	20	MLBHOU	—	—	0	4.68	4.68	22.1%	12.8%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	21	MLBHOU	6	6	36	4.48	4.40	22.7%	11.4%	0.4
2029PROJ57% MLB	22	MLBHOU	12	12	72	4.28	4.15	23.7%	10.3%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 17, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 78%

CompsMichael Forret (age 20) · Nolan DeVos (age 22) · Logan Hofmann (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%22.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$100M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$10M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$11M	+$10M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$9M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$8M	+$6M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$6M	+$4M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$13M		$45M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.64	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.64	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.70	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.7%	2.80	3.35	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.7%	2.80	3.35	—
2026	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	28.9%	11.0%	17.8%	0.6%	2.80	2.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	12.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	104	438	99	50	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.6%	4.52	4.44	+1.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	126	533	126	55	14	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.6%	4.32	4.19	+1.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	126	533	130	51	14	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.5%	4.15	4.03	+2.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	126	533	133	49	13	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	2.5%	4.01	3.92	+2.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	124	526	133	47	13	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.9%	16.4%	2.5%	3.91	3.85	+2.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	125	527	134	47	13	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.8%	16.6%	2.5%	3.86	3.83	+2.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	122	516	131	46	13	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.6%	3.86	3.86	+2.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	117	493	125	45	13	100%	6.1	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	2.7%	3.91	3.95	+2.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	109	459	115	43	13	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.3%	15.8%	2.8%	4.01	4.08	+1.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	99	418	103	40	13	100%	6.2	24.7%	9.6%	15.2%	3.0%	4.16	4.26	+1.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	375	91	37	12	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.46	+1.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	332	79	34	12	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	3.5%	4.55	4.68	+0.7
2040	33	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	69	293	68	32	11	100%	5.8	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.8%	4.78	4.93	+0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	36	152	34	17	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.5%	4.48	4.40	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	72	304	72	31	8	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.5%	4.28	4.15	+1.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	90	380	93	36	9	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.5%	4.11	3.99	+1.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	99	418	104	38	10	100%	5.8	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.88	+1.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	104	439	111	39	11	100%	5.8	25.2%	8.9%	16.4%	2.4%	3.87	3.81	+1.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	109	460	117	41	11	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.8%	16.6%	2.4%	3.82	3.79	+2.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	109	460	117	41	11	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.5%	3.82	3.82	+2.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	106	448	113	41	12	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	2.6%	3.87	3.91	+1.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	100	422	106	39	12	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.3%	15.8%	2.7%	3.97	4.04	+1.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	92	388	96	37	11	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.21	+1.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	85	35	11	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	3.1%	4.29	4.41	+0.9
2039	32	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	74	312	75	32	11	100%	6.2	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	3.4%	4.50	4.63	+0.6
2040	33	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	66	279	65	30	10	100%	6.0	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.87	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	191	1140	4814	1189	457	131	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	2.7%	4.08	3.71	+23.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	209	80	23	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	2.7%	4.08	3.71	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		25	16	97	397	89	52	5	64%	3.9	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	1.2%	3.07	3.49	+21.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	33	200	821	185	108	10	64%	3.9	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	1.2%	3.07	3.49	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 87 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.35 (+0.98)K% 28.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.90%	—	×0.740	21.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.05%	—	×1.180	13.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 10 IPFIP 4.64 → 6.85 (+2.21)K% 31.8% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.680	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.250	17.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.023	×1.400	6.22%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 6.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jagger Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.21	23.6%	13.3%	356	-0.47	—	—	—
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	94
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	88
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	87
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	86
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	85
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	84
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Carlos Zambrano R 2002 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP-	4.11	19.5%	12.8%	1.9%	.271	3.39	20.7%	11.7%	647	-0.72	3.23	1,951	83
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82
Carlos Rodriguez R 2022 · 3.60 FIP	20	SP-	3.60	22.6%	10.9%	1.9%	.266	4.12	21.5%	10.9%	353	+0.52	3.60	513	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	82
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	82
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	82
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	108	24.4%	9.8%	1.07	4.18
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45