Carlos Rodriguez

P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 203 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	28	25	142	4.75	4.16	22.8%	10.6%	2.1	K 19.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.54
2025	23	MIX3 levels	23	17	94	4.13	3.92	23.3%	11.3%	1.7	K 20.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.99
2026	24	MIX3 levels	27	12	63	8.14	5.59	18.3%	15.0%	-0.8	K 15.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.54
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	20	20	118	4.96	5.26	18.0%	12.8%	0.2
2028PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBMIL	22	22	130	5.00	5.10	19.0%	12.2%	0.4
2029PROJ84% MLB	27	MLBMIL	16	16	95	5.01	5.07	19.2%	12.0%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25) · Ryan Jensen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA4.96

FIP5.26

K%18.0%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP162

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	108	428	129	40	7	77%	4.1	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	1.9%	3.01	3.60	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	108	428	129	40	7	77%	4.1	30.1%	9.3%	20.8%	1.6%	3.01	2.66	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	128	539	158	57	10	100%	4.9	23.9%	11.3%	12.6%	2.2%	2.88	3.73	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	128	539	158	57	10	100%	4.9	29.3%	10.6%	18.7%	1.9%	2.88	2.98	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	142	606	138	64	18	89%	5.1	19.8%	9.6%	10.2%	3.5%	4.75	4.54	+1.4
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	142	606	138	64	18	89%	5.1	19.8%	9.6%	10.2%	3.5%	4.75	4.54	+1.4
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	142	606	138	64	18	89%	5.1	22.8%	10.6%	12.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.16	+2.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	17	94	416	97	47	10	74%	4.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.3%	4.13	3.99	+1.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	17	94	416	97	47	10	74%	4.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.3%	4.13	3.99	+1.6
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	17	94	416	97	47	10	74%	4.1	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	2.4%	4.13	3.92	+1.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	12	63	327	60	49	10	44%	2.3	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	3.6%	8.14	5.54	-0.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	12	63	327	60	49	10	44%	2.3	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	3.6%	8.14	5.54	-0.7
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	12	63	327	60	49	10	44%	2.3	18.3%	15.0%	3.4%	3.1%	8.14	5.59	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	3	31	149	28	16	5	27%	2.8	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.4%	6.03	4.92	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	20	20	118	498	89	64	15	100%	5.9	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	3.1%	4.96	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	162	684	130	84	21	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.00	5.10	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	113	478	92	57	15	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.0%	7.3%	3.1%	5.01	5.07	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	107	453	87	54	14	100%	6.0	19.3%	11.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.06	5.11	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	98	414	78	50	14	100%	6.1	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.3%	5.17	5.25	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	88	374	67	46	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.5%	5.34	5.46	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	130	549	105	67	17	100%	5.9	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.00	5.10	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	95	401	77	48	12	100%	5.9	19.2%	12.0%	7.3%	3.1%	5.01	5.07	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	93	393	76	47	13	100%	5.8	19.3%	11.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.06	5.11	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	87	367	69	44	12	100%	6.2	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.3%	5.17	5.25	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	80	338	61	42	12	100%	6.2	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.5%	5.34	5.46	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	84	517	2199	416	264	71	91%	5.6	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	3.2%	5.16	4.80	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	32	200	851	161	102	27	91%	5.6	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	3.2%	5.16	4.80	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		130	100	535	2316	484	258	62	77%	4.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	866	181	97	23	77%	4.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 52 IPFIP 5.34 → 5.54 (+0.19)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.860	15.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.88%	—	×0.900	14.30%
HR / BF /BF	3.25%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.34 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 78 IPFIP 3.77 → 3.90 (+0.13)K% 24.1% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.12%	—	×0.860	20.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.18%	—	×0.900	10.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.33%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Brewers · 6 IPFIP 3.91 → 5.26 (+1.35)K% 15.4% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.680	10.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.971	×1.400	5.55%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.91 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 130 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.47 (+0.45)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.50%	—	×0.860	20.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.31%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 124 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.73 (+0.75)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.46%	—	×0.810	23.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.27%	—	×1.100	11.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.055	×1.200	2.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.19 (+0.09)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.860	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×0.900	15.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.905	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 71 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.21 (+1.05)K% 29.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.27%	—	×0.740	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.180	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.136	×1.300	2.79%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 36 IPFIP 1.57 → 2.37 (+0.80)K% 31.9% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.91%	—	×0.770	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.150	10.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.885	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 1.57 → 2.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.09	19.2%	7.1%	382	-0.17	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	83
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	80
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	78
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	78
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	76
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	74
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	73
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	73
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	73
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	73
Burke Badenhop R 2008 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	16.1%	9.2%	3.2%	.308	3.13	18.0%	11.5%	203	-1.54	2.67	512	72
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	71
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	71
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	71
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	71
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	71
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	71
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	71
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	127	18.7%	12.2%	1.23	5.11
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Rich Gale ('78-'84, 3 WAR*)	4.9	139	18.9%*	10.8%*	1.05*	4.94*
Juan Eichelberger ('78-'88, 0 WAR*)	3.0	101	15.8%*	11.2%*	1.20*	4.83*