Carlos Rodriguez

Carlos Rodriguez P Nashville Sounds

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 203 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2028

ERA5.57

FIP4.65

xFIP2.71

SIERA2.20

K%21.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.1%

IP107

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2028

K†5055

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

CT+0.6 (34%)

SL (3%)

FB (21%)

CH-0.9 (42%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	20	108	428	129	40	7	22.6%	10.9%	1.9%	3.01	3.63	+2.0
2023	21	AAA	Nashville Sounds	26	26	128	539	158	57	10	23.9%	11.3%	2.2%	2.88	3.70	+2.3
2024	22	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	28	25	142	606	138	64	18	20.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.75	4.63	+1.1
2025	23	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	23	17	94	416	97	47	10	21.3%	12.5%	2.3%	4.13	4.15	+1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	3	3	10	57	12	10	1	18.5%	18.4%	1.9%	8.71	4.93	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB	MIL	43	—	43	182	39	21	5	21.5%	11.4%	2.8%	5.57	4.65	+0.1
2026 Total	24	MLB	MIL	—	—	53	239	51	31	6	21.4%	12.8%	2.6%	6.18	4.70	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	MIL	22	22	121	510	112	53	14	21.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.91	4.50	+1.1
2028	26	MLB	MIL	23	23	128	539	119	55	15	22.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.46	+1.2
2029	27	MLB	MIL	24	24	131	552	122	56	16	22.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.52	4.46	+1.2
2030	28	MLB	MIL	24	24	131	552	122	56	16	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.49	4.48	+1.2
2031	29	MLB	MIL	23	23	128	540	117	55	16	21.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.53	4.55	+1.1
2032	30	MLB	MIL	23	23	124	524	110	54	16	21.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.60	4.64	+0.9
2033	31	MLB	MIL	22	22	120	505	104	52	16	20.5%	10.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.75	+0.7
2034	32	MLB	MIL	21	21	115	485	96	51	15	19.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.80	4.87	+0.6
2035	33	MLB	MIL	20	20	110	463	89	50	15	19.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	+0.4
2036	34	MLB	MIL	19	19	104	440	81	48	15	18.5%	10.9%	3.3%	5.05	5.13	+0.2
2037	35	MLB	MIL	18	18	98	415	74	46	14	17.8%	11.1%	3.5%	5.19	5.28	+0.0
2038	36	MLB	MIL	17	17	92	388	66	44	14	17.0%	11.4%	3.6%	5.34	5.45	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			106	91	482	2046	447	237	51	21.9%	11.6%	2.5%	3.83	4.09	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—			44	38	200	849	185	98	21	21.9%	11.6%	2.5%	3.83	4.09	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	21.5%	11.4%	2.8%	—	4.47	22.1%	11.9%	379	-0.18	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	85
Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SU	3.87	18.9%	10.1%	2.0%	.270	5.33	17.4%	7.1%	148	+1.46	3.87	162	84
Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	84
Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	23.9%	14.0%	2.8%	.301	4.39	26.1%	10.7%	96	-0.02	3.95	143	83
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	83
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	23.4%	11.9%	1.6%	.316	4.40	23.0%	9.5%	109	+0.92	3.48	142	83
Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	82
Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	82
Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	21.4%	12.4%	2.4%	.296	5.37	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.16	3.60	146	82
Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	81
Blair Henley R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	20.8%	12.2%	3.4%	.450	4.64	17.9%	4.8%	170	-0.12	4.02	187	81
Orlando Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.49	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.04	4.37	119	81
Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	25	SU	3.49	22.4%	10.2%	1.8%	.330	4.95	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.49	140	81
Trent Fennell R 2025 · 4.08 FIP	23	SU	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.50	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.42	4.08	163	81
Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.50	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.14	2.78	181	81
Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	23.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.98	3.54	156	81
Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	81
Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	81
Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2028 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	24.5%	13.2%	2.8%	.256	4.33	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.08	3.88	180	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.6M
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.1	$9M	+$6M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+1.2	$10M	+$4M
2029	Arb-3	$9M	+1.2	$10M	+$1M
Totals		$19M		$31M	+$12M