David Davalillo
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.5 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 61 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.86
FIP3.86
K%22.5%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%15.0%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL TEX Red | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 10.0% | -10.0% | 10.0% | 13.50 | 9.86 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL TEX Red | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 10.0% | -10.0% | 10.0% | 13.50 | 11.10 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 3 | 22 | 91 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 30% | 2.2 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 3.32 | 3.24 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 3 | 22 | 91 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 30% | 2.2 | 29.7% | 4.4% | 25.3% | 1.1% | 3.32 | 1.76 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 110 | 445 | 113 | 32 | 3 | 95% | 5.0 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 0.8% | 1.88 | 3.03 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 110 | 445 | 113 | 32 | 3 | 95% | 5.0 | 25.4% | 7.2% | 18.2% | 0.7% | 1.88 | 2.28 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 107 | 426 | 126 | 28 | 6 | 96% | 4.7 | 23.3% | 7.4% | 16.0% | 1.6% | 2.44 | 2.94 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 107 | 426 | 126 | 28 | 6 | 96% | 4.7 | 29.6% | 6.6% | 23.0% | 1.4% | 2.44 | 2.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 14 | 14 | 54 | 257 | 67 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.67 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 115 | 515 | 125 | 52 | 13 | — | — | 24.3% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 24 | 103 | 23 | 8 | 3 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 3.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 119 | 504 | 117 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 3.83 | 3.79 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 24 | 139 | 586 | 138 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 3.76 | +2.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 151 | 637 | 151 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 16.6% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.76 | +2.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 148 | 627 | 148 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 3.81 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 143 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.90 | +2.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 138 | 581 | 135 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 4.03 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 129 | 546 | 125 | 43 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 120 | 509 | 115 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 112 | 471 | 104 | 41 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 102 | 432 | 93 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.81 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 109 | 460 | 109 | 33 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.78 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 129 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 16.6% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.78 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 133 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 3.83 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 131 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.92 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 125 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.05 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 117 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 109 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 99 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 89 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 198 | 198 | 1170 | 4940 | 1140 | 382 | 144 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 3.74 | +22.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 65 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 60 | 295 | 1229 | 254 | 113 | 21 | 85% | 4.2 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 1.7% | 2.96 | 3.47 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 41 | 200 | 833 | 172 | 77 | 14 | 85% | 4.2 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 1.7% | 2.96 | 3.47 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Davalillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.86 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 2.4% | — | 3.77 | 23.5% | 16.4% | 409 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 91 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 87 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 87 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 86 |
| Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.41 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .293 | 5.18 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 130 | +1.77 | 3.41 | 213 | 86 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 86 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.47 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.31 | 2.47 | 155 | 85 |
| Jacob Kisting R 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.74 | 21.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 144 | 85 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 84 |
| Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 84 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .313 | 3.91 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 166 | -0.16 | 3.53 | 357 | 83 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 83 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 82 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 82 |
| Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 81 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 6.05 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.73 | 3.02 | 417 | 81 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 81 |
| Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 81 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.41 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | +0.05 | 3.41 | 368 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 124 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 1.10 | 4.03 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |