David Davalillo — OGILVIE

David Davalillo P Frisco RoughRiders

+0.7 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.4 · 2029

ERA3.98

FIP3.98

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.5%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.2%

IP107

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.4peak

2029

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	19	ROK	DSL TEX Red	2	0	2	10	0	1	1	—	—	—	13.50	—	—
2023	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	18.6%	6.8%	1.6%	3.32	3.28	+0.4
2024	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	19.0%	8.4%	0.9%	1.88	3.03	+2.8
2025	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	23.3%	7.4%	1.6%	2.44	2.96	+2.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	2	2	10	44	14	2	1	—	—	—	1.74	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	43	—	43	181	41	15	4	22.5%	8.3%	2.4%	3.98	3.98	+0.5
2026 Total	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	53	225	55	17	5	24.3%	7.6%	2.4%	3.54	3.21	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TEX	23	23	126	531	122	43	13	23.0%	8.1%	2.5%	3.95	3.91	+2.0
2028	25	MLB	TEX	25	25	139	588	137	46	15	23.3%	7.9%	2.5%	3.92	3.88	+2.2
2029	26	MLB	TEX	27	27	146	618	145	48	16	23.5%	7.8%	2.5%	3.90	3.88	+2.4
2030	27	MLB	TEX	27	27	149	630	148	50	16	23.4%	7.9%	2.5%	3.90	3.90	+2.4
2031	28	MLB	TEX	27	27	149	629	147	50	16	23.4%	7.9%	2.6%	3.91	3.92	+2.3
2032	29	MLB	TEX	26	26	146	615	143	49	16	23.3%	8.0%	2.6%	3.94	3.97	+2.2
2033	30	MLB	TEX	26	26	141	596	138	48	16	23.1%	8.1%	2.7%	3.99	4.03	+2.0
2034	31	MLB	TEX	25	25	136	575	131	47	16	22.8%	8.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.11	+1.8
2035	32	MLB	TEX	24	24	131	552	125	46	16	22.6%	8.4%	2.8%	4.14	4.19	+1.6
2036	33	MLB	TEX	23	23	125	527	117	45	15	22.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.23	4.29	+1.4
2037	34	MLB	TEX	22	22	119	501	110	44	15	21.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.33	4.40	+1.2
2038	35	MLB	TEX	20	20	112	472	102	42	15	21.5%	9.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.52	+1.0
2039	36	MLB	TEX	19	19	105	442	93	41	14	21.1%	9.2%	3.3%	4.57	4.66	+0.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			59	48	251	1016	215	78	14	21.2%	7.7%	1.4%	2.33	3.06	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—			47	38	200	808	171	62	11	21.2%	7.7%	1.4%	2.33	3.06	+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Davalillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	22.5%	8.3%	2.4%	—	3.89	23.3%	15.4%	411	-0.09	—	—	—
Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.19 FIP	24	SU	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	4.15	20.6%	13.7%	152	+0.96	3.19	183	92
Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.54	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.27	3.27	128	92
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	21.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.241	5.00	18.8%	8.2%	108	+1.17	3.83	144	91
Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.34	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.30	4.04	287	90
Antonio Menendez R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	23	SU	2.93	24.7%	8.1%	1.6%	.314	3.71	19.9%	6.2%	166	+0.78	2.93	188	90
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	90
Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	19.7%	6.8%	2.6%	.316	2.79	18.4%	8.6%	41	-0.93	2.79	144	89
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	89
Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.22	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.84	2.82	152	88
Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	88
Devon Roedahl R 2025 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.67	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.73	3.94	122	87
Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	87
Josh Advocate R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	24	SU	3.74	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.68	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.06	3.68	118	87
Jake Bray R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	23	SU	3.29	21.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.245	4.56	21.4%	10.8%	158	+1.27	2.60	198	87
Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SU	4.33	21.1%	7.7%	3.7%	.250	4.37	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.04	4.33	130	87
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	87
Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	87
Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	23	SU	3.46	26.9%	7.6%	3.0%	.284	4.34	27.8%	15.6%	170	+0.88	3.46	290	87
Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	24	SW	3.63	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.85	2.77	107	86
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	24	SW	3.49	23.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.262	6.13	20.6%	11.1%	128	+2.64	3.49	207	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.4	$21M	+$20M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.4	$22M	+$21M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.3	$21M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.2	$21M	+$16M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.0	$20M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+1.8	$18M	+$8M
Totals		$25M		$123M	+$98M