David Davalillo

P Round Rock Express

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#133ETA2028MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	22	21	110	1.88	2.28	25.4%	7.2%	—	K 19.0% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.03
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	107	2.44	2.26	29.6%	6.6%	—	K 23.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 2.96
2026	23	MIX4 levels	25	24	100	4.59	3.56	25.2%	10.4%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.05
2027PROJ	24	MLBTEX	5	5	27	4.24	4.24	21.4%	8.8%	0.4
2028PROJ59% MLB	25	MLBTEX	10	10	58	4.28	4.23	22.6%	8.5%	0.9
2029PROJ75% MLB	26	MLBTEX	13	13	77	4.22	4.17	23.3%	8.4%	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 75%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Zack Lee (age 23) · Brody McCullough (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%21.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$46M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$31M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Red	2	0	2	10	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0%	10.0%	13.50	9.86	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Red	2	0	2	10	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0%	10.0%	13.50	11.10	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	30%	2.2	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	1.7%	3.32	3.33	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	30%	2.2	29.7%	4.4%	25.3%	1.1%	3.32	1.76	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.88	3.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.88	3.03	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	0.7%	1.88	2.28	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	1.6%	2.44	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	1.6%	2.44	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	29.6%	6.6%	23.0%	1.4%	2.44	2.26	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	24	100	441	111	46	10	96%	4.0	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.05	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	24	100	441	111	46	10	96%	4.0	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.05	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	24	100	441	111	46	10	96%	4.0	25.2%	10.4%	14.7%	2.3%	4.59	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TEX	5	5	27	114	24	10	3	100%	5.4	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	2.6%	4.24	4.24	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	98	413	93	35	11	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	2.7%	4.17	4.12	+1.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	102	431	100	36	12	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.4%	14.8%	2.7%	4.11	4.06	+1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	98	413	96	35	11	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.11	4.11	+1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	93	393	91	34	11	100%	5.8	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.16	4.20	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	87	366	83	32	11	100%	6.2	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	3.0%	4.26	4.33	+1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	79	332	75	30	11	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	3.2%	4.41	4.50	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	70	295	65	28	10	100%	5.8	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.70	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	61	258	56	26	10	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	3.7%	4.79	4.93	+0.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	53	224	47	23	9	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	4.0%	5.02	5.18	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	58	245	55	21	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.23	+0.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	77	325	76	27	9	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.4%	14.8%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+1.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	81	342	79	29	10	100%	5.8	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+1.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	81	342	79	29	11	100%	5.8	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	3.1%	4.28	4.32	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	78	329	75	29	11	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	3.2%	4.38	4.45	+1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	72	304	68	28	10	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	3.5%	4.54	4.63	+0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	61	26	10	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.7%	4.73	4.84	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	57	241	52	24	10	100%	5.7	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	4.0%	4.94	5.08	+0.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	50	211	45	22	9	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	4.3%	5.18	5.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	104	620	2616	590	235	87	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.16	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	76	28	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.16	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		82	70	341	1413	291	120	25	85%	4.2	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	1.7%	3.01	3.40	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	41	200	829	171	71	14	85%	4.2	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	1.7%	3.01	3.40	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 58 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.38 (+0.22)K% 20.5% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.54%	—	×0.860	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.02%	—	×0.900	10.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 32 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.45 (+0.83)K% 31.2% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.21%	—	×0.810	25.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.80%	—	×1.100	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Rangers · 7 IPFIP 0.44 → 1.56 (+1.12)K% 37.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.680	25.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.250	4.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.44 → 1.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 56 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.59 (+0.73)K% 25.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.66%	—	×0.810	20.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×1.100	8.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷0.976	×1.200	2.18%

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 51 IPFIP 1.47 → 2.26 (+0.78)K% 34.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.770	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.50%	—	×1.150	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.215	×1.250	1.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 1.47 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 80 IPFIP 2.23 → 3.03 (+0.80)K% 24.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.69%	—	×0.740	18.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.180	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷1.008	×1.300	0.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 30 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.04 (+0.78)K% 27.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.20%	—	×0.770	20.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷1.014	×1.250	0.99%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rangers · 17 IPFIP 2.23 → 3.33 (+1.10)K% 27.4% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.40%	—	×0.680	18.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.48%	—	×1.250	6.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.124	×1.400	1.71%

Result: FIP 2.23 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Davalillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.10	23.0%	14.5%	298	-0.14	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	91
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	88
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	86
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	86
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	86
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	86
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	86
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	84
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	83
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	83
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	83	22.5%	8.9%	1.16	4.33
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64