David Davalillo — OGILVIE

David Davalillo P Round Rock Express

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.85

FIP3.85

K%22.5%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.8	$11M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.8	$11M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+1.7	$9M	+$0.8M
Totals		$33M		$44M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Red	2	0	2	10	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0%	10.0%	13.50	9.86	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Red	2	0	2	10	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0%	10.0%	13.50	11.10	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	30%	2.2	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	1.7%	3.32	3.33	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	30%	2.2	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	1.7%	3.32	3.33	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	30%	2.2	29.7%	4.4%	25.3%	1.1%	3.32	1.76	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.88	3.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.88	3.03	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	0.7%	1.88	2.28	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	1.6%	2.44	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	1.6%	2.44	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	29.6%	6.6%	23.0%	1.4%	2.44	2.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	24	23	97	428	106	42	10	96%	4.1	19.6%	9.4%	10.1%	2.6%	4.62	4.09	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	24	23	97	428	106	42	10	96%	4.1	19.6%	9.4%	10.1%	2.6%	4.62	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	TEX	2	2	7	27	10	1	0	100%	3.5	37.0%	3.7%	33.3%	0.0%	2.57	0.44	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TEX	1	1	2	15	4	3	1	100%	2.3	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	6.7%	15.43	7.04	—
2026	23	AA RAW	TEX	7	7	32	141	44	11	3	100%	4.6	31.2%	7.8%	23.4%	2.1%	3.34	2.62	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	TEX	14	13	56	245	48	27	6	93%	4.0	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	2.4%	5.17	4.19	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	8	32	7	2	1	100%	7.7	22.5%	7.3%	15.2%	2.4%	3.85	3.85	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	105	460	113	44	11	—	—	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	2.3%	4.57	4.08	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	128	540	125	38	13	100%	5.6	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	2.5%	3.82	3.78	+1.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	147	622	147	44	16	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	2.5%	3.79	3.75	+2.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	27	27	159	673	160	47	17	100%	5.9	23.7%	7.0%	16.7%	2.5%	3.77	3.75	+2.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	26	26	157	663	157	47	17	100%	6.0	23.7%	7.1%	16.6%	2.6%	3.79	3.80	+2.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	152	643	152	47	17	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	2.7%	3.85	3.88	+1.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	24	24	145	614	143	46	17	100%	6.1	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	2.8%	3.95	4.01	+1.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	137	577	133	45	18	100%	5.9	23.0%	7.8%	15.2%	3.0%	4.09	4.19	+1.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	128	538	122	44	18	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.1%	14.4%	3.3%	4.27	4.39	+0.8
2035	32	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	118	498	110	42	17	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.5%	4.48	4.62	+0.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	108	457	99	41	17	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.71	4.87	+0.0
2037	34	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	98	416	88	39	17	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	4.1%	4.97	5.14	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	62	262	61	19	7	100%	5.6	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.88	+0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	102	431	102	30	12	100%	6.0	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	2.7%	3.89	3.85	+1.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	129	545	129	38	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	7.0%	16.7%	2.7%	3.87	3.85	+1.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	135	570	135	41	16	100%	6.1	23.7%	7.1%	16.6%	2.8%	3.90	3.91	+1.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	23	23	136	574	135	42	17	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	2.9%	3.96	3.99	+1.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	133	562	131	42	17	100%	6.0	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.0%	4.07	4.13	+1.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	126	532	122	41	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.8%	15.2%	3.3%	4.21	4.31	+1.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	119	502	113	41	18	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.1%	14.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.52	+0.7
2035	32	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	112	473	105	40	18	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.8%	4.62	4.76	+0.4
2036	33	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	103	435	94	39	18	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.1%	4.87	5.03	+0.0
2037	34	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	89	376	79	36	16	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	4.4%	5.14	5.31	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		209	209	1247	5267	1208	409	170	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.8%	15.2%	3.2%	4.23	3.92	+14.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	194	66	27	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.8%	15.2%	3.2%	4.23	3.92	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		81	69	338	1400	285	116	25	85%	4.2	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	1.8%	3.01	3.40	+13.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	41	200	828	168	69	15	85%	4.2	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	1.8%	3.01	3.40	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Davalillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.85	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	—	3.76	23.5%	16.5%	435	-0.09	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	89
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	87
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	86
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	86
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	86
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	86
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	84
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	84
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	84
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	84
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	84
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	84
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	83
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	82
Michael Rucker R 2017 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP-	3.22	18.9%	5.8%	1.8%	.298	4.43	19.1%	11.7%	208	+1.21	3.22	589	82
Carson Spiers R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.2%	8.8%	2.6%	.284	4.70	19.4%	10.5%	355	+0.92	3.71	511	82
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.54	18.7%	11.6%	445	+0.42	4.12	747	82
Griffin Canning R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	25.0%	7.2%	3.1%	.277	4.71	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.11	3.60	801	82
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	130	23.0%	7.7%	1.13	4.07
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01