Braxton Ashcraft
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 218 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 3.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION113 act + 76 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8980vR 71
ERA3.15
FIP3.13
K%26.8%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%20.2%
ROS IP76
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 189 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p6327.3%
K%
p8027.8%
xwOBA vs
p800.283
FB+5.7 (46%)
SI (14%)
CU (26%)
SL-1.1 (23%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 5 | 5 | 18 | 76 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 10.7% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 5.26 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 5 | 5 | 18 | 76 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 15.8% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.06 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 10 | 10 | 39 | 158 | 41 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 5.35 | 4.87 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 10 | 10 | 39 | 158 | 41 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 3.9 | 25.9% | 7.6% | 18.4% | 5.1% | 5.35 | 4.60 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 53 | 213 | 63 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 21.7% | 6.0% | 15.7% | 1.9% | 2.39 | 3.06 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 53 | 213 | 63 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 29.6% | 5.2% | 24.4% | 1.9% | 2.39 | 2.32 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 73 | 299 | 77 | 12 | 6 | 88% | 4.6 | 21.2% | 4.3% | 16.8% | 3.5% | 2.84 | 3.78 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 73 | 299 | 77 | 12 | 6 | 88% | 4.6 | 25.8% | 4.0% | 21.7% | 2.0% | 2.84 | 2.55 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 18 | 118 | 511 | 127 | 42 | 8 | 50% | 3.3 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 1.9% | 3.66 | 3.21 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 18 | 118 | 511 | 127 | 42 | 8 | 50% | 3.3 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.6% | 1.6% | 3.66 | 2.90 | +3.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 19 | 19 | 113 | 461 | 128 | 27 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.8% | 5.9% | 21.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 3.16 | +3.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 76 | 319 | 86 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.8% | 6.6% | 20.2% | 2.7% | 3.15 | 3.13 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 86 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.8% | 6.6% | 20.2% | 2.7% | 3.15 | 3.13 | +1.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 189 | 780 | 214 | 48 | 23 | — | — | 27.4% | 6.1% | 21.2% | 2.9% | 3.36 | 3.15 | +5.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 189 | 798 | 214 | 48 | 22 | — | — | 26.8% | 6.0% | 20.8% | 2.8% | 3.35 | 3.15 | +5.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 167 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 6.7% | 19.8% | 2.7% | 3.57 | 3.58 | +3.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 167 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 2.8% | 3.62 | 3.66 | +3.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 156 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 18.7% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 3.82 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 134 | 568 | 142 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 7.3% | 17.7% | 3.2% | 3.91 | 4.03 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 129 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 7.7% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 4.12 | 4.26 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 115 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 106 | 449 | 102 | 38 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.62 | 4.79 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 159 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 6.7% | 19.8% | 2.7% | 3.56 | 3.57 | +3.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 158 | 41 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.4% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 2.8% | 3.61 | 3.65 | +2.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 148 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 18.7% | 2.9% | 3.73 | 3.81 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 135 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 7.3% | 17.7% | 3.1% | 3.90 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 122 | 39 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 7.7% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 4.11 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 109 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 97 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.61 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 186 | 1137 | 4782 | 1214 | 344 | 143 | 91% | 5.6 | 25.4% | 7.2% | 18.2% | 3.0% | 3.77 | 3.51 | +25.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 841 | 213 | 60 | 25 | 91% | 5.6 | 25.4% | 7.2% | 18.2% | 3.0% | 3.77 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 85 | 413 | 1718 | 398 | 116 | 48 | 81% | 3.9 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.52 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 41 | 200 | 831 | 192 | 56 | 23 | 81% | 3.9 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Ashcraft (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.63 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 2.3% | — | 3.68 | 26.2% | 19.4% | 443 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 76 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 71 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 70 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 69 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 68 |
| Christian Scott R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 67 |
| Alex Meyer R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.14 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .299 | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.7% | 91 | +0.90 | 3.14 | 230 | 67 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 66 |
| Emmet Sheehan R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 26.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 364 | 65 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 65 |
| Michael Grove R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | .354 | 3.63 | 25.3% | 17.2% | 67 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 377 | 65 |
| David Festa R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 24.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 405 | 65 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.32 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .346 | 4.34 | 20.7% | 13.8% | 225 | +0.02 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 64 |
| Louis Varland R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.44 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .329 | 2.26 | 29.3% | 22.5% | 122 | -2.18 | 1.21 | 660 | 64 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 2.47 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.47 | 26.2% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 155 | 64 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 64 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.15 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .306 | 4.38 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 292 | +0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 63 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 63 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.08 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 313 | -0.39 | 3.35 | 741 | 63 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.77 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | .272 | 4.12 | 20.2% | 12.8% | 130 | -0.65 | 4.07 | 470 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 134 | 25.0% | 7.4% | 1.18 | 3.91 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |