Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.4 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 148 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 75

ERA3.14

FIP3.11

K%25.5%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%19.6%

ROS IP148

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$41M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

FB+5.7 (47%)

SI (17%)

CU (26%)

SL-1.1 (22%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.733 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$16M	+$16M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$11M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.2	$7M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$52M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	5	5	18	76	12	5	2	100%	3.5	10.7%	8.2%	2.5%	3.7%	4.58	5.26	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	5	5	18	76	12	5	2	100%	3.5	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.6%	4.58	4.06	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	10	39	158	41	12	8	100%	3.9	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	5.1%	5.35	5.32	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	10	39	158	41	12	8	100%	3.9	25.9%	7.6%	18.4%	5.1%	5.35	4.60	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	213	63	11	4	100%	2.8	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	2.2%	2.39	3.23	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	213	63	11	4	100%	2.8	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	2.2%	2.39	3.23	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	53	213	63	11	4	100%	2.8	29.6%	5.2%	24.4%	1.9%	2.39	2.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	21.0%	4.1%	16.8%	2.9%	2.84	3.42	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	21.0%	4.1%	16.8%	2.9%	2.84	3.42	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	25.8%	4.0%	21.7%	2.0%	2.84	2.55	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	23.0%	7.8%	15.1%	1.8%	3.66	3.15	+2.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	23.0%	7.8%	15.1%	1.8%	3.66	3.15	+2.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	24.9%	8.2%	16.6%	1.6%	3.66	2.90	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	36	235	959	244	58	25	67%	4.4	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	2.6%	3.37	3.15	+5.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.6%	3.65	3.53	+2.8
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.6%	3.65	3.53	+2.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	PIT	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.3%	3.65	3.38	+3.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	PIT	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.3%	3.65	3.38	+3.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.5%	5.9%	19.6%	2.6%	3.14	3.11	—
ROS	26	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.5%	5.9%	19.6%	2.4%	3.04	3.01	—
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	165	667	173	35	22	—	—	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.3%	3.65	3.53	+2.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	165	698	173	35	22	—	—	24.8%	5.0%	19.8%	3.2%	3.65	3.37	+2.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	159	672	170	40	19	100%	5.9	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	2.9%	3.69	3.69	+2.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	159	672	170	41	20	100%	5.9	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	3.0%	3.74	3.77	+2.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	152	641	158	41	20	100%	6.1	24.6%	6.4%	18.3%	3.1%	3.86	3.93	+1.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	143	603	144	40	20	100%	6.0	23.9%	6.7%	17.3%	3.3%	4.03	4.14	+1.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	133	562	130	39	20	100%	6.1	23.2%	7.0%	16.2%	3.6%	4.23	4.37	+0.8
2032	32	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	123	520	117	39	20	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.4%	15.0%	3.8%	4.47	4.63	+0.4
2033	33	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	113	477	103	38	20	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	4.1%	4.73	4.91	-0.0
2034	34	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	103	434	90	36	19	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.4%	12.3%	4.4%	5.02	5.21	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	151	638	162	38	17	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	2.7%	3.57	3.57	+2.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	151	638	161	39	18	100%	6.0	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	2.8%	3.62	3.65	+2.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	144	608	150	39	18	100%	6.0	24.6%	6.4%	18.3%	2.9%	3.73	3.80	+1.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	136	574	138	38	18	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.7%	17.3%	3.1%	3.89	4.00	+1.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	127	536	124	38	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.0%	16.2%	3.3%	4.08	4.22	+0.8
2032	32	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	117	494	111	37	17	100%	5.8	22.4%	7.4%	15.0%	3.5%	4.31	4.47	+0.4
2033	33	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	107	452	97	36	17	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	3.8%	4.56	4.74	-0.0
2034	34	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	93	393	81	33	16	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.4%	12.3%	4.1%	4.84	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	207	1261	5292	1268	355	164	92%	5.6	24.0%	6.7%	17.3%	3.1%	3.89	3.62	+19.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	839	201	56	26	92%	5.6	24.0%	6.7%	17.3%	3.1%	3.89	3.62	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		114	94	465	1924	439	120	57	82%	4.1	22.8%	6.2%	16.6%	3.0%	3.56	3.59	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	827	189	52	25	82%	4.1	22.8%	6.2%	16.6%	3.0%	3.56	3.59	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Ashcraft (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	24.1%	7.2%	2.2%	—	3.79	25.1%	18.9%	470	+0.20	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	78
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	72
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	72
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	71
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	68
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	67
Christian Scott R 2023 · 2.56 FIP	24	SP	2.56	25.6%	4.1%	2.0%	.265	4.02	25.6%	17.6%	203	+1.46	2.56	347	67
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	65
Michael Grove R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP-	3.76	25.7%	5.6%	3.9%	.354	3.30	24.2%	16.2%	84	-0.46	3.15	394	65
Alex Meyer R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	26	SP-	3.10	26.2%	10.9%	1.5%	.299	3.99	25.5%	12.7%	91	+0.89	3.10	230	65
Keaton Winn R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	20.6%	7.2%	3.2%	.310	4.37	18.9%	10.7%	122	+0.36	3.68	457	65
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	65
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	26.3%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.55	19.5%	11.7%	166	-0.14	3.87	506	65
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	65
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	65
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	65
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	64
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	64
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	63
Stephen Strasburg R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	136	23.7%	6.9%	1.29	4.10
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45