Braxton Ashcraft
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
+2.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 218 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.2 · 2027
ERA3.33
FIP3.73
xFIP3.30
SIERA3.27
K%23.2%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%15.2%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p8630.9%
K%
p7927.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.231
FB+5.7 (49%)
SI (17%)
CU (27%)
SL-1.1 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 5 | 5 | 18 | 76 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 10.7% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 10 | 10 | 39 | 158 | 41 | 12 | 8 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 5.35 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 19 | 19 | 53 | 213 | 63 | 11 | 4 | 21.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 2.39 | 3.26 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 16 | 14 | 73 | 299 | 77 | 12 | 6 | 21.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.84 | 3.35 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 36 | 18 | 118 | 511 | 127 | 42 | 8 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 3.66 | 3.14 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 4 | 23 | 91 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 29.7% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 2.38 | 1.57 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 84 | 25 | 6 | 26.7% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 2.55 | 2.88 | +1.9 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 97 | 406 | 111 | 32 | 6 | 27.3% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 2.51 | 2.57 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 111 | 34 | 9 | 26.2% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 3.24 | 3.38 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 110 | 34 | 9 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 3.40 | 3.47 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 105 | 33 | 9 | 25.1% | 8.0% | 2.2% | 3.53 | 3.58 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 99 | 33 | 9 | 24.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 3.63 | 3.69 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 93 | 32 | 9 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.73 | 3.80 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 87 | 31 | 9 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.91 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 81 | 31 | 9 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 4.04 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 80 | 340 | 75 | 30 | 9 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.18 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 74 | 26 | 9 | 23.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 67 | 25 | 9 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 38 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 70 | 323 | 1348 | 297 | 96 | 33 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 3.43 | 3.47 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 43 | 200 | 836 | 184 | 60 | 20 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 3.43 | 3.47 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Ashcraft (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.59 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 2.2% | — | 3.48 | 25.7% | 17.7% | 300 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 81 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 81 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .265 | 4.32 | 14.4% | 4.2% | 208 | +1.03 | 2.19 | 404 | 81 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 81 |
| Murphy Smith R 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.17 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 0.7% | .320 | 4.13 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 217 | +0.96 | 3.17 | 300 | 80 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 80 |
| Walker Powell R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 26 | SP- | 2.87 | 18.4% | 6.1% | 1.0% | .251 | 5.21 | 17.4% | 11.6% | 147 | +2.34 | 2.87 | 242 | 79 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 79 |
| Elian Leyva R 2029 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.11 | 158 | 78 |
| Chad Jenkins R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.60 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .296 | 3.92 | 12.5% | 0.4% | 30 | +0.32 | 3.60 | 123 | 78 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 78 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 78 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 78 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .286 | 3.54 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 146 | -0.24 | 3.19 | 1,070 | 77 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 178 | 77 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 77 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 76 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 3.57 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 109 | -0.37 | 3.57 | 302 | 76 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2024 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 76 |
| Aaron West R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 26 | SP- | 2.89 | 16.4% | 4.4% | 1.1% | .340 | 2.80 | 13.7% | 10.2% | 68 | -0.09 | 2.80 | 235 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.733 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.9 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.1 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $6M | +1.9 | $17M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $10M | +1.7 | $15M | +$6M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $12M | +1.5 | $14M | +$2M |
| Totals | $30M | $97M | +$67M | ||