Braxton Ashcraft

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	16	14	73	2.84	2.55	25.8%	4.0%	—	K 21.1% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.41
2025	25	MIX2 levels	36	18	118	3.66	2.90	24.9%	8.2%	3.6	K 23.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.12
2026	26	MLBPIT	28	28	165	3.65	3.37	25.9%	5.2%	4.1
2027PROJ	27	MLBPIT	24	24	142	3.64	3.66	26.1%	5.8%	3.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBPIT	20	20	121	3.58	3.62	25.9%	5.9%	2.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBPIT	18	18	109	3.70	3.78	25.4%	6.2%	1.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 7.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.733First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$6M2031Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs76

K%70

Form2.51 ERA (proj 3.64) · K 23.7% (proj 26.1%) · BB 3.1% (proj 5.8%) · last 90d · 43 IP through Oct 27

CompsTanner Bibee (age 25) · Ryne Nelson (age 26) · George Kirby (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.64

FIP3.66

K%26.1%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%20.3%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$60M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.733 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.0	$27M	+$26M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$18M	+$17M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$13M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.5	$10M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$18M		$73M	+$60M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	5	5	18	76	12	5	2	100%	3.5	10.7%	8.2%	2.5%	3.7%	4.58	5.26	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	5	5	18	76	12	5	2	100%	3.5	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.6%	4.58	4.06	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	10	39	158	41	12	8	100%	3.9	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	5.1%	5.35	5.32	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	10	39	158	41	12	8	100%	3.9	25.9%	7.6%	18.4%	5.1%	5.35	4.60	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	213	63	11	4	100%	2.8	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	2.2%	2.39	3.23	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	53	213	63	11	4	100%	2.8	29.6%	5.2%	24.4%	1.9%	2.39	2.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	21.1%	4.1%	16.9%	2.9%	2.84	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	21.1%	4.1%	16.9%	2.9%	2.84	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	25.8%	4.0%	21.7%	2.0%	2.84	2.55	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	1.8%	3.66	3.12	+3.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	1.8%	3.66	3.12	+3.3
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	24.9%	8.2%	16.6%	1.6%	3.66	2.90	+3.6
2026	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.6%	3.65	3.53	+3.8
2026	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.6%	3.65	3.53	+3.8
2026	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.3%	3.65	3.37	+4.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	36	235	959	244	58	25	67%	4.4	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	2.6%	3.37	3.15	+6.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PIT	24	24	142	600	156	35	18	100%	5.9	26.1%	5.8%	20.3%	3.0%	3.64	3.66	+3.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	128	538	140	32	17	100%	6.1	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	3.1%	3.71	3.75	+2.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	114	483	123	30	16	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	3.3%	3.83	3.91	+2.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	432	107	28	15	100%	6.0	24.6%	6.5%	18.2%	3.5%	4.00	4.12	+1.6
2031	31	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	89	376	90	26	14	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	3.7%	4.21	4.35	+1.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	74	310	72	22	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.2%	15.9%	3.9%	4.45	4.60	+0.7
2033	33	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	56	237	53	18	10	100%	6.2	22.2%	7.7%	14.6%	4.2%	4.71	4.88	+0.3
2034	34	MLB MLE	PIT	6	6	39	164	35	13	7	100%	6.5	21.3%	8.2%	13.2%	4.5%	5.00	5.19	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	121	511	133	30	15	100%	6.0	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	2.9%	3.58	3.62	+2.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	109	460	117	28	14	100%	6.1	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	3.0%	3.70	3.78	+1.9
2030	30	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	97	410	101	26	13	100%	6.1	24.6%	6.5%	18.2%	3.2%	3.86	3.98	+1.5
2031	31	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	85	359	86	24	12	100%	6.1	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	3.4%	4.06	4.20	+1.0
2032	32	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	70	296	68	21	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	7.2%	15.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.44	+0.6
2033	33	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	53	224	50	17	9	100%	5.9	22.2%	7.7%	14.6%	3.9%	4.54	4.71	+0.3
2034	34	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	35	148	32	12	6	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.2%	13.2%	4.2%	4.81	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	131	805	3367	830	218	105	88%	5.4	24.6%	6.5%	18.2%	3.1%	3.80	3.55	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	836	206	54	26	88%	5.4	24.6%	6.5%	18.2%	3.1%	3.80	3.55	+4.5
Career	—	MLE		114	94	465	1924	441	120	57	82%	4.1	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	3.0%	3.56	3.59	+14.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	827	190	52	25	82%	4.1	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	3.0%	3.56	3.59	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 48 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.74 (+0.45)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.57%	—	×0.860	21.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.68%	—	×0.900	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷0.915	×1.100	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 54 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.78 (+1.14)K% 28.6% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.64%	—	×0.810	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.64%	—	×1.100	4.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷0.844	×1.200	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 19 IPFIP 2.24 → 2.39 (+0.15)K% 17.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.72%	—	×0.860	15.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×0.900	4.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.24 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 26 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.12 (+0.68)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.36%	—	×0.770	20.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.202	×1.250	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 20 IPFIP 1.44 → 1.99 (+0.55)K% 29.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.11%	—	×0.810	23.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×1.100	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.106	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.44 → 1.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 6 IPFIP -0.24 → 0.86 (+1.10)K% 45.8% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.83%	—	×0.740	33.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.180	4.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.971	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP -0.24 → 0.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 39 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.32 (+0.67)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.770	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×1.150	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	5.06%	÷1.238	×1.250	5.11%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Pirates · 18 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.26 (+1.21)K% 15.8% → 10.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.79%	—	×0.680	10.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.58%	—	×1.250	8.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Ashcraft (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.66	26.1%	5.8%	3.0%	—	3.91	25.4%	19.2%	344	+0.25	—	—	—
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	65
Ryne Nelson R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	26	SP	3.62	20.0%	5.1%	2.9%	.303	4.25	20.0%	13.5%	241	+0.63	3.62	828	65
George Kirby R 2024 · 3.12 FIP	26	SP	3.12	23.0%	3.0%	2.9%	.287	3.59	22.6%	16.6%	301	+0.47	2.18	905	64
Louis Varland R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	26	SP-	4.42	21.7%	7.2%	4.1%	.329	2.31	28.6%	21.4%	151	-2.11	1.70	689	64
Drew Rasmussen R 2022 · 3.22 FIP	27	SP	3.22	21.4%	5.3%	2.3%	.260	3.09	23.8%	17.7%	223	-0.13	1.21	694	62
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	61
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,207	61
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	61
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	60
Matt Shoemaker R 2014 · 3.12 FIP	27	SP-	3.12	22.8%	4.4%	2.5%	.283	4.02	21.0%	15.3%	373	+0.90	3.12	728	60
Joe Ryan R 2023 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	29.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.301	3.40	27.2%	22.1%	451	-0.47	2.41	976	60
Kutter Crawford R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	27	SP-	3.62	25.6%	6.8%	3.3%	.265	4.53	23.1%	16.4%	184	+0.91	3.30	741	60
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	60
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	59
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.8%	352	+0.69	3.60	809	58
Jacob deGrom R 2015 · 2.57 FIP	27	SP	2.57	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.68	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.11	0.74	1,692	58
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	58
Shohei Ohtani R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	29.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.259	2.86	32.4%	24.1%	298	-0.28	1.76	613	58
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	1,034	57
Bryce Miller R 2024 · 3.52 FIP	25	SP	3.52	24.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.235	4.75	22.3%	14.3%	222	+1.23	3.43	682	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	98	24.8%	6.4%	1.27	3.87
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Alejandro Peña ('81-'96, 15 WAR*)	5.3	81	24.7%*	7.5%*	0.96*	3.61*