George Kirby — OGILVIE

George Kirby P Seattle Mariners

+3.1 WAR

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 3.1 · 2026

ERA3.61

FIP3.59

xFIP3.49

SIERA3.48

K%24.5%

BB%4.7%

K-BB%19.8%

IP161

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2026

K†6060

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p1119.8%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

FB+5.4 (52%)

CT+1.1 (3%)

CH+0.8 (8%)

SI (20%)

CU (10%)

SL (26%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	23	AA	Arkansas Travelers	15	15	68	274	80	15	1	22.9%	6.2%	0.4%	2.53	2.18	+2.2
2022	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	31	31	157	648	167	28	16	25.0%	4.3%	2.7%	3.33	2.99	+4.1
2023	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	31	31	191	757	172	18	22	22.7%	2.4%	2.9%	3.35	3.09	+4.8
2024	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	33	33	191	778	179	23	22	23.0%	3.0%	2.9%	3.53	3.13	+4.7
2025	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	26	26	136	569	150	31	18	26.1%	5.5%	2.8%	4.43	3.12	+3.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	4	4	28	103	22	6	3	21.4%	5.8%	2.9%	3.25	3.63	+0.4
ROS	28	MLB	SEA	22	22	122	514	124	26	15	24.1%	5.0%	2.9%	3.36	3.29	+2.8
2026 Total	28	MLB	SEA	—	—	150	617	146	32	18	23.6%	5.1%	2.9%	3.34	3.35	+3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	SEA	25	25	136	574	136	29	17	23.7%	5.0%	2.9%	3.73	3.73	+2.4
2028	30	MLB	SEA	22	22	123	518	120	27	16	23.2%	5.1%	3.0%	3.78	3.82	+2.1
2029	31	MLB	SEA	20	20	110	464	105	24	14	22.6%	5.2%	3.1%	3.87	3.92	+1.7
2030	32	MLB	SEA	18	18	98	415	91	22	13	22.0%	5.4%	3.2%	3.97	4.04	+1.4
2031	33	MLB	SEA	16	16	87	368	78	21	12	21.3%	5.6%	3.2%	4.09	4.17	+1.0
2032	34	MLB	SEA	14	14	77	325	74	16	11	22.6%	5.0%	3.3%	4.06	4.04	+0.9
2033	35	MLB	SEA	12	12	68	285	62	15	10	21.9%	5.2%	3.5%	4.14	4.19	+0.6
2034	36	MLB	SEA	59	—	59	248	52	14	9	21.1%	5.5%	3.6%	4.27	4.35	+0.4
2035	37	MLB	SEA	51	—	51	214	43	12	8	20.3%	5.7%	3.7%	4.42	4.53	+0.2
2036	38	MLB	SEA	43	—	43	183	36	11	7	19.4%	6.0%	3.8%	4.60	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			140	140	770	3129	747	123	82	23.9%	3.9%	2.6%	3.51	3.02	+19.9
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	813	194	32	21	23.9%	3.9%	2.6%	3.51	3.02	+5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
George Kirby (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.50	25.7%	4.7%	2.9%	—	3.82	23.2%	18.1%	368	+0.32	—	—	—
Charlie Morton R 2029 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	44
Cory Riordan R 2028 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	42
Zach Petrick R 2024 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	14.8%	4.2%	1.8%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	157	42
Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	12.6%	6.0%	2.9%	.302	4.12	16.2%	10.8%	233	-0.24	3.93	368	42
Terry Doyle R 2027 · 3.20 FIP	29	SP	3.20	14.5%	3.6%	1.6%	.262	2.82	11.7%	6.1%	35	-0.38	2.82	193	42
Manuel Flores R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	29	SP	4.00	13.8%	7.1%	2.1%	.317	3.58	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.42	3.48	515	42
Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	28	SP	4.31	20.4%	5.8%	4.0%	.280	3.68	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.63	3.20	592	42
Josh Lowey R 2028 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.31	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.02	2.25	426	41
Javier Solano R 2025 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP	4.54	12.6%	4.3%	3.6%	.289	5.17	14.7%	10.1%	130	+0.63	3.67	506	41
Matt Buschmann R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	41
Kyle Davies R 2029 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	41
Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.88	3.42	355	40
Ross Seaton R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	25	SP	3.24	11.9%	3.5%	1.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	133	40
Thad Weber R 2028 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	40
Greg Peavey R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	11.2%	6.5%	2.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	147	40
Matt Benedict R 2024 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	10.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	130	39
Miguel González R 2029 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	39
JC Ramírez R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP	4.34	16.9%	7.7%	3.1%	.287	5.47	12.2%	2.1%	41	+1.13	3.80	369	39
Toru Murata R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	39
Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	28	SP	3.71	18.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.310	4.18	20.2%	11.3%	476	+0.47	3.68	887	38

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.878 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$7M	+3.1	$25M	+$18M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$20M	+$11M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+2.1	$18M	+$7M
Totals		$25M		$62M	+$37M