George Kirby
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 3.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 73 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9788vR 79
ERA3.38
FIP3.31
K%22.6%
BB%4.8%
K-BB%17.7%
ROS IP73
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p570.305
FB+5.4 (50%)
CT+1.1 (3%)
CH+0.8 (7%)
SI (21%)
CU (11%)
SL (29%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 68 | 274 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 16.7% | 0.4% | 2.53 | 2.16 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 68 | 274 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 29.2% | 5.5% | 23.7% | 0.4% | 2.53 | 1.59 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 157 | 648 | 167 | 28 | 16 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.0% | 4.3% | 20.7% | 2.8% | 3.33 | 3.10 | +4.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 31 | 157 | 648 | 167 | 28 | 16 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.8% | 4.3% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 3.33 | 2.83 | +4.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 191 | 757 | 172 | 18 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.7% | 2.4% | 20.3% | 3.1% | 3.35 | 3.16 | +5.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 191 | 757 | 172 | 18 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.7% | 2.4% | 20.3% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 3.08 | +5.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 33 | 33 | 191 | 778 | 179 | 23 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 20.1% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.17 | +5.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 33 | 33 | 191 | 778 | 179 | 23 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 20.1% | 2.8% | 3.53 | 3.08 | +5.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 136 | 569 | 150 | 31 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.1% | 5.5% | 20.6% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 3.25 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 136 | 569 | 150 | 31 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.4% | 5.4% | 20.9% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 3.30 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 18 | 18 | 110 | 456 | 98 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 5.3% | 16.2% | 2.4% | 3.76 | 3.28 | +2.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 73 | 310 | 70 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 4.8% | 17.7% | 2.7% | 3.38 | 3.31 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 70 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 4.8% | 17.7% | 2.7% | 3.34 | 3.27 | +1.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 183 | 766 | 168 | 39 | 19 | — | — | 21.9% | 5.1% | 16.8% | 2.5% | 3.61 | 3.29 | +4.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 183 | 774 | 168 | 39 | 19 | — | — | 21.7% | 5.0% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 3.27 | +4.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 27 | 162 | 686 | 153 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 5.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 3.78 | 3.82 | +3.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 25 | 25 | 153 | 645 | 139 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 5.4% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.02 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 142 | 602 | 126 | 34 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 132 | 556 | 112 | 34 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 6.1% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 98 | 33 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 85 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 4.90 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 99 | 417 | 72 | 32 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 5.22 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 153 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 5.1% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.78 | +3.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 140 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 5.4% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 3.89 | 3.98 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 125 | 34 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 4.08 | 4.21 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 112 | 34 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 6.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.31 | 4.46 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 98 | 34 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 4.57 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 85 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 4.84 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 73 | 32 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 5.16 | 5.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 295 | 295 | 1740 | 7248 | 1574 | 367 | 225 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 5.1% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 3.96 | 3.61 | +36.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 833 | 181 | 42 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 5.1% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 3.96 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 154 | 852 | 3482 | 823 | 141 | 94 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.6% | 4.1% | 19.6% | 2.7% | 3.55 | 3.10 | +22.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 817 | 193 | 33 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.6% | 4.1% | 19.6% | 2.7% | 3.55 | 3.10 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| George Kirby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.56 | 25.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.02 | 21.6% | 16.3% | 458 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Charlie Morton R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 41 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.43 | 22.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .283 | 3.38 | 25.1% | 19.2% | 298 | -0.05 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 41 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 40 |
| Jacob deGrom R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.23 | 23.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .310 | 2.46 | 31.0% | 25.4% | 622 | -0.77 | 0.75 | 1,489 | 40 |
| Josh Lowey R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 39 |
| Barry Enright R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 39 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.39 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.66 | 27.0% | 19.9% | 413 | +0.27 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 39 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2028 · 2.49 FIP | 30 | SP | 2.49 | 22.8% | 4.9% | 1.3% | .324 | 4.23 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 261 | +1.74 | 2.49 | 433 | 39 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.26 | 24.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.55 | 374 | 38 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.34 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.27 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.93 | 3.34 | 262 | 38 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 38 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 38 |
| Anthony DeSclafani R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.53 | 22.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | .290 | 3.98 | 22.6% | 16.0% | 368 | -0.55 | 3.41 | 981 | 38 |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 2.80 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.80 | 30.6% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .291 | 2.86 | 29.3% | 23.1% | 514 | +0.06 | 2.42 | 811 | 38 |
| Zach Petrick R 2024 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.25 | 14.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 157 | 37 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.87 | 27.3% | 6.5% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.37 | 26.9% | 12.3% | 62 | +1.50 | 1.32 | 650 | 37 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 37 |
| Jason Forjet R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 37 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 37 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.04 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 1.9% | .274 | 2.76 | 25.3% | 19.9% | 480 | -0.28 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 37 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 136 | 21.0% | 5.8% | 1.33 | 4.23 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |
| Michael Pineda ('22) | 7 | 109 | 22.9% | 5.0% | 1.43 | 4.35 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS | 8 | 155 | 22.7% | 5.9% | 1.23 | 3.70 |
| Johnny Cueto ('23) | 8 | 128 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.08 | 3.76 |
| Jordan Montgomery ('24) | 7 | 124 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.07 | 4.01 |