George Kirby — OGILVIE

George Kirby P Seattle Mariners

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 3.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION165 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.68

FIP3.61

K%21.0%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 180 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL7575

CMD7575

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

FB+5.4 (49%)

CT+1.1 (4%)

CH+0.8 (6%)

SI (21%)

CU (11%)

SL (27%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.878 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2027	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$11M	+$3M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+1.0	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$19M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	274	80	15	1	100%	4.5	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	0.4%	2.53	2.18	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	68	274	80	15	1	100%	4.5	29.2%	5.5%	23.7%	0.4%	2.53	1.59	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	157	648	167	28	16	100%	5.1	25.0%	4.3%	20.7%	2.7%	3.33	3.03	+3.6
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	157	648	167	28	16	100%	5.1	25.8%	4.3%	21.5%	2.5%	3.33	2.83	+4.1
2023	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	191	757	172	18	22	100%	6.2	22.7%	2.4%	20.3%	3.0%	3.35	3.12	+4.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	191	757	172	18	22	100%	6.2	22.7%	2.4%	20.3%	3.0%	3.35	3.12	+4.3
2023	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	31	31	191	757	172	18	22	100%	6.2	22.7%	2.4%	20.3%	2.9%	3.35	3.08	+4.4
2024	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	191	778	179	23	22	100%	5.8	23.0%	3.0%	20.1%	2.9%	3.53	3.12	+4.2
2024	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	191	778	179	23	22	100%	5.8	23.0%	3.0%	20.1%	2.9%	3.53	3.12	+4.2
2024	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	33	33	191	778	179	23	22	100%	5.8	23.0%	3.0%	20.1%	2.8%	3.53	3.08	+4.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	136	569	150	31	18	100%	5.2	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	2.9%	4.43	3.20	+2.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	136	569	150	31	18	100%	5.2	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	2.9%	4.43	3.20	+2.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	136	569	150	31	18	100%	5.2	26.4%	5.4%	20.9%	3.2%	4.43	3.30	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			140	140	803	3296	759	130	93	100%	5.7	23.0%	3.9%	19.1%	2.8%	3.72	3.20	+17.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	28	28	165	695	138	38	21	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	3.1%	4.25	3.82	+2.2
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	28	28	165	695	138	38	21	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	3.1%	4.25	3.82	+2.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	SEA	28	28	165	695	138	38	21	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.25	3.77	+2.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	SEA	28	28	165	695	138	38	21	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.25	3.77	+2.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SEA	3	3	15	64	13	3	2	100%	5.1	21.0%	5.1%	15.9%	3.0%	3.68	3.61	+0.2
ROS	28	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	15	63	13	3	2	100%	7.5	21.0%	5.1%	15.9%	2.9%	3.64	3.57	+0.2
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	180	759	151	41	23	—	—	20.0%	5.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.20	3.80	+2.4
FULL	28	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	180	762	151	41	23	—	—	19.9%	5.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.20	3.75	+2.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	162	686	143	36	22	100%	6.0	20.8%	5.3%	15.6%	3.1%	4.08	4.12	+1.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	153	645	130	36	22	100%	6.1	20.1%	5.6%	14.5%	3.3%	4.23	4.32	+1.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	142	602	117	36	21	100%	5.9	19.4%	5.9%	13.4%	3.6%	4.43	4.56	+0.6
2030	32	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	132	556	103	35	21	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	3.8%	4.66	4.81	+0.1
2031	33	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	121	510	91	35	21	100%	6.0	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	4.1%	4.92	5.09	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	162	684	143	36	21	100%	6.0	20.8%	5.3%	15.6%	3.1%	4.04	4.08	+1.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	153	646	130	36	21	100%	5.9	20.1%	5.6%	14.5%	3.3%	4.18	4.27	+1.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	142	600	116	36	21	100%	5.9	19.4%	5.9%	13.4%	3.5%	4.38	4.51	+0.6
2030	32	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	132	557	104	35	21	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	3.7%	4.61	4.76	+0.1
2031	33	MLB CTX	SEA	20	20	121	511	91	35	20	100%	6.0	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	4.0%	4.86	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		261	261	1529	6360	1356	311	199	100%	5.9	21.3%	4.9%	16.4%	3.1%	4.03	3.64	+23.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	832	177	41	26	100%	5.9	21.3%	4.9%	16.4%	3.1%	4.03	3.64	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		164	164	907	3721	863	155	102	100%	5.5	23.2%	4.2%	19.0%	2.7%	3.65	3.18	+19.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	820	190	34	23	100%	5.5	23.2%	4.2%	19.0%	2.7%	3.65	3.18	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
George Kirby (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.53	25.1%	4.3%	3.0%	—	4.32	20.2%	14.6%	458	+0.79	—	—	—
Nathan Eovaldi R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	22.2%	4.2%	3.2%	.283	3.44	25.1%	19.2%	298	-0.05	2.44	1,378	64
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	981	64
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,048	62
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	650	61
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	3.34	918	60
Chris Archer R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	29.2%	7.0%	3.3%	.322	4.20	26.2%	17.7%	268	+0.89	2.85	1,018	59
Michael Pineda R 2017 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	22.4%	5.1%	4.6%	.300	3.51	23.2%	18.4%	173	-0.85	2.00	786	57
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,538	57
Rick Porcello R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	28	SP	4.46	20.5%	5.3%	4.4%	.320	3.98	21.1%	15.4%	425	-0.48	3.13	1,023	57
Julio Teheran R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	28	SP	4.23	21.5%	10.6%	2.9%	.257	7.66	13.4%	2.7%	31	+3.43	3.61	1,134	55
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	52
Sonny Gray R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	28	SP-	3.79	21.1%	9.8%	2.2%	.320	3.21	28.5%	19.1%	367	-0.58	2.55	1,792	52
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	890	51
Trevor Bauer R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	28	SP	3.79	27.8%	9.0%	3.5%	.277	3.24	33.4%	26.1%	181	-0.55	2.16	1,111	51
Chris Tillman R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	28	SP	3.92	19.6%	9.1%	2.4%	.277	5.96	12.2%	0.4%	144	+2.04	3.92	489	50
Marcus Stroman R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	28	SP	3.58	20.5%	7.4%	2.3%	.306	3.48	21.3%	15.3%	318	-0.10	3.28	1,367	50
Jameson Taillon R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	19.0%	4.4%	2.7%	.256	3.90	21.8%	16.2%	322	+0.34	3.12	1,401	50
Walker Buehler R 2022 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	21.2%	6.2%	2.8%	.309	4.98	17.5%	7.7%	234	+1.34	2.67	1,103	49
Domingo Germán R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP-	4.05	23.9%	6.6%	3.9%	.269	4.54	21.6%	13.5%	277	+0.49	3.29	777	48
Mike Leake R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP	3.75	16.5%	3.8%	2.8%	.314	4.25	15.7%	11.9%	569	+0.50	3.69	937	48

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	147	20.5%	5.6%	1.33	4.27
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75