George Kirby

P Seattle Mariners

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBSEA	33	33	191	3.53	3.08	23.0%	3.0%	5.5
2025	27	MIX2 levels	26	26	136	4.43	3.30	26.4%	5.4%	3.5	K 26.1% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.20
2026	28	MLBSEA	30	30	175	4.33	3.83	20.0%	6.2%	3.3
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	23	23	139	3.98	3.96	22.5%	5.7%	2.4
2028PROJ	30	MLBSEA	19	19	115	4.05	4.12	21.8%	6.0%	1.7
2029PROJ	31	MLBSEA	16	16	96	4.22	4.34	21.1%	6.4%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 12.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.878First FA2029

2027Arb-2$8M2028Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo81

xwOBA vs47

K%35

Form6.00 ERA (proj 3.98) · K 17.7% (proj 22.5%) · BB 10.5% (proj 5.7%) ▼▼ last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsChase Anderson (age 29) · Bud Norris (age 29) · Masahiro Tanaka (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.98

FIP3.96

K%22.5%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.878 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$19M	+$11M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+1.7	$13M	+$5M
Totals		$17M		$32M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	274	80	15	1	100%	4.5	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	0.4%	2.53	2.18	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	68	274	80	15	1	100%	4.5	29.2%	5.5%	23.7%	0.4%	2.53	1.59	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	157	648	167	28	16	100%	5.1	25.0%	4.3%	20.7%	2.7%	3.33	3.03	+4.6
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	157	648	167	28	16	100%	5.1	25.8%	4.3%	21.5%	2.5%	3.33	2.83	+5.1
2023	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	191	757	172	18	22	100%	6.2	22.7%	2.4%	20.3%	3.0%	3.35	3.12	+5.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	31	31	191	757	172	18	22	100%	6.2	22.7%	2.4%	20.3%	2.9%	3.35	3.08	+5.6
2024	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	191	778	179	23	22	100%	5.8	23.0%	3.0%	20.1%	2.9%	3.53	3.12	+5.4
2024	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	191	778	179	23	22	100%	5.8	23.0%	3.0%	20.1%	2.9%	3.53	3.12	+5.4
2024	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	33	33	191	778	179	23	22	100%	5.8	23.0%	3.0%	20.1%	2.8%	3.53	3.08	+5.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	136	569	150	31	18	100%	5.2	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	2.9%	4.43	3.20	+3.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	136	569	150	31	18	100%	5.2	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	2.9%	4.43	3.20	+3.7
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	136	569	150	31	18	100%	5.2	26.4%	5.4%	20.9%	3.2%	4.43	3.30	+3.5
2026	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	741	148	46	22	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	3.87	+3.2
2026	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	741	148	46	22	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	3.87	+3.2
2026	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	741	148	46	22	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	3.83	+3.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			142	142	812	3342	769	138	94	100%	5.7	23.0%	4.1%	18.9%	2.8%	3.74	3.22	+22.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SEA	23	23	139	587	132	34	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	5.7%	16.8%	3.0%	3.98	3.96	+2.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	115	485	106	29	16	100%	6.0	21.8%	6.0%	15.8%	3.2%	4.09	4.16	+1.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	96	405	85	26	14	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	3.4%	4.27	4.39	+1.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	78	331	67	22	12	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.50	4.65	+0.7
2031	33	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	60	252	49	18	10	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	4.0%	4.76	4.93	+0.3
2032	34	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	42	176	33	14	7	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.7%	10.8%	4.3%	5.04	5.23	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	115	486	106	29	15	100%	6.1	21.8%	6.0%	15.8%	3.1%	4.05	4.12	+1.7
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	96	405	85	26	14	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	3.4%	4.22	4.34	+1.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	78	329	67	22	12	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.6%	4.45	4.60	+0.7
2031	33	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	49	18	10	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	3.9%	4.71	4.88	+0.3
2032	34	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	42	177	33	14	7	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.7%	10.8%	4.2%	4.98	5.17	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	207	1203	4990	1109	247	152	100%	5.8	22.2%	5.0%	17.3%	3.0%	3.95	3.52	+27.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	830	184	41	25	100%	5.8	22.2%	5.0%	17.3%	3.0%	3.95	3.52	+4.6
Career	—	MLE		166	166	917	3767	873	163	103	100%	5.5	23.2%	4.3%	18.8%	2.7%	3.67	3.20	+25.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	822	190	36	23	100%	5.5	23.2%	4.3%	18.8%	2.7%	3.67	3.20	+4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 10 IPFIP 4.88 → 4.85 (−0.03)K% 28.9% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.89%	—	×0.860	24.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×0.900	4.00%
HR / BF /BF	6.67%	÷1.204	×1.100	6.09%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 4.88 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 25 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.83 (+1.19)K% 34.4% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.41%	—	×0.810	27.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.38%	—	×1.100	5.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.909	×1.200	4.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 42 IPFIP 1.38 → 2.14 (+0.76)K% 31.7% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.71%	—	×0.770	24.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.150	5.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.078	×1.250	0.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.38 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 26 IPFIP 1.76 → 2.25 (+0.49)K% 25.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.45%	—	×0.810	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.36%	—	×1.100	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.892	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.76 → 2.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
George Kirby (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.37	21.2%	14.8%	289	+0.41	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,260	74
Bud Norris R 2014 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	20.2%	7.3%	2.6%	.270	4.10	21.7%	12.9%	258	+0.34	3.51	1,221	70
Masahiro Tanaka R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	29	SP	3.71	25.0%	5.5%	3.7%	.279	4.02	20.2%	15.1%	230	+0.31	2.82	1,054	67
Jacob deGrom R 2017 · 3.35 FIP	29	SP	3.35	28.9%	6.5%	3.4%	.300	2.04	32.9%	27.5%	489	-1.31	0.74	1,692	64
Orlando Hernandez R 2000 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	17.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.255	4.38	18.6%	11.3%	241	-0.30	3.35	1,315	62
Zack Wheeler R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	29	SP	3.28	23.6%	5.6%	2.7%	.308	2.47	26.6%	21.3%	437	-0.81	2.28	1,890	62
Matt Shoemaker R 2016 · 3.29 FIP	29	SP	3.29	21.4%	4.3%	2.6%	.310	4.27	22.4%	14.0%	137	+0.98	3.12	728	61
Tom Koehler R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.49	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.08	3.76	822	61
Brandon Webb R 2008 · 3.02 FIP	29	SP	3.02	19.4%	6.4%	1.4%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	1,316	60
Ramon Ortiz R 2002 · 4.98 FIP	29	SP	4.98	18.1%	7.6%	4.5%	.236	4.97	12.9%	6.0%	479	-0.01	4.32	1,525	60
Joe Blanton R 2010 · 4.04 FIP	29	SP	4.04	17.5%	4.8%	3.3%	.316	4.08	19.4%	15.2%	365	+0.04	3.01	1,799	59
Tanner Roark R 2016 · 3.51 FIP	29	SP	3.51	20.1%	8.1%	2.0%	.261	4.10	20.8%	13.9%	527	+0.59	2.40	1,194	58
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2010 · 3.90 FIP	29	SP	3.90	20.0%	11.0%	2.0%	.279	4.84	18.3%	7.5%	122	+0.94	3.77	790	58
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	1.87	1,044	58
Todd Ritchie R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	14.0%	5.1%	2.6%	.271	4.68	12.2%	4.3%	162	+0.69	3.03	828	57
Brian Lawrence R 2005 · 3.92 FIP	29	SP	3.92	12.8%	5.9%	2.1%	.286	4.68	12.9%	4.3%	29	+0.76	3.33	963	57
Josh Fogg R 2006 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	12.2%	6.1%	3.1%	.303	4.96	12.8%	5.3%	290	+0.39	0.87	1,159	57
Kyle Gibson R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP	4.42	18.6%	8.6%	3.3%	.323	4.09	21.7%	12.9%	424	-0.33	3.56	1,920	56
Dave Bush R 2009 · 4.55 FIP	29	SP	4.55	17.5%	6.9%	3.7%	.307	4.70	13.7%	6.7%	212	+0.15	3.65	1,141	55
Anthony DeSclafani R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.268	3.98	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.01	3.38	1,014	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	122	22.2%	5.1%	1.19	3.97
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*