Bryce Miller — OGILVIE

Bryce Miller P Seattle Mariners

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 87

ERA3.95

FIP4.12

K%23.6%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%16.6%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

SI (17%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.9 (12%)

FB-6.0 (58%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.890 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.2M		$1M	+$0.1M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$3.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$6.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$3.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	5	3	9	45	15	2	0	60%	1.9	33.3%	4.4%	28.9%	0.0%	4.82	0.85	—
2021	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	5	3	9	45	15	2	0	60%	1.9	33.3%	4.4%	28.9%	0.0%	4.82	0.53	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	134	543	163	46	10	96%	5.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.6%	2.1%	3.16	3.43	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	134	543	163	46	10	96%	5.0	30.0%	8.5%	21.5%	1.8%	3.16	2.67	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	100%	5.2	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	4.1%	4.59	4.13	+1.4
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	100%	5.2	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	4.1%	4.59	4.13	+1.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	100%	5.2	22.0%	4.7%	17.4%	3.7%	4.59	3.84	+1.9
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.1%	2.94	3.52	+3.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.1%	2.94	3.52	+3.0
2024	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.0%	2.94	3.45	+3.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	4.8%	5.47	5.12	-0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	4.8%	5.47	5.12	-0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	20.1%	8.4%	11.8%	4.8%	5.47	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	92	504	2048	465	132	74	99%	5.4	22.7%	6.4%	16.3%	3.6%	4.05	3.95	+5.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	23	22	116	470	115	35	18	96%	5.0	24.3%	6.7%	17.6%	4.4%	3.96	4.34	+0.8
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	23	22	116	470	115	35	18	96%	5.0	24.3%	6.7%	17.6%	4.4%	3.96	4.34	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	SEA	2	2	8	30	8	4	0	100%	4.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.54	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	SEA	2	2	6	25	6	3	0	100%	2.9	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	0.0%	4.76	2.59	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SEA	19	18	102	415	101	28	18	95%	5.4	24.3%	6.7%	17.6%	4.3%	4.22	4.28	+0.7
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SEA	19	18	102	415	101	28	18	95%	5.4	24.3%	6.7%	17.6%	4.3%	4.22	4.28	+0.7
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SEA	2	2	14	58	14	4	2	100%	6.8	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	3.9%	3.95	4.12	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	14	59	14	4	2	100%	7.0	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	3.8%	3.89	4.06	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	130	528	129	39	20	—	—	24.4%	7.4%	17.0%	3.8%	3.96	4.32	+0.9
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	116	490	129	39	20	—	—	26.3%	8.0%	18.3%	4.1%	4.42	4.15	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	162	685	159	49	28	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	4.1%	4.58	4.68	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	155	654	148	48	28	100%	6.0	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	4.3%	4.74	4.84	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	146	615	135	47	27	100%	6.1	21.9%	7.6%	14.3%	4.5%	4.92	5.05	-0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	136	574	121	46	27	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	4.7%	5.14	5.28	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	162	684	159	49	27	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	4.0%	4.52	4.62	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	155	654	148	48	27	100%	6.0	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	4.2%	4.68	4.78	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	146	616	135	47	27	100%	6.1	21.9%	7.6%	14.3%	4.4%	4.86	4.99	-0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	136	574	122	46	26	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	4.6%	5.08	5.22	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	194	1117	4634	1042	325	184	99%	5.7	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	4.0%	4.44	4.27	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	830	187	58	33	99%	5.7	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	4.0%	4.44	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		136	132	694	2826	652	196	101	97%	5.1	23.1%	6.9%	16.1%	3.6%	3.92	3.98	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	814	188	56	29	97%	5.1	23.1%	6.9%	16.1%	3.6%	3.92	3.98	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.0%	7.2%	3.8%	—	4.85	22.6%	15.3%	463	+0.25	—	—	—
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,198	64
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	60
Aaron Sanchez R 2019 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	19.0%	10.9%	3.4%	.309	4.68	14.9%	7.1%	175	-0.06	3.43	924	59
Kevin Gausman R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.14	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.99	2.34	1,930	59
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	59
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	59
Kendall Graveman R 2018 · 5.50 FIP	27	SP	5.50	15.5%	7.7%	5.0%	.353	3.03	25.5%	16.4%	75	-2.47	2.63	723	56
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	56
Jerad Eickhoff R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	20.5%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	5.64	18.5%	9.8%	94	+1.77	3.87	875	54
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	4.04	281	54
Jake Odorizzi R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP	5.39	21.0%	9.9%	5.1%	.225	3.63	24.7%	16.1%	337	-1.76	3.16	1,048	54
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	53
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	53
Zach Davies R 2020 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP	3.79	22.8%	6.9%	3.2%	.249	4.87	17.5%	7.4%	378	+1.08	3.60	1,247	52
Nick Tropeano R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	27	SP	5.28	20.3%	9.2%	5.0%	.251	4.48	21.5%	11.8%	155	-0.80	2.34	446	52
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	52
Trevor Williams R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	27	SP	4.94	17.8%	6.4%	4.6%	.297	4.16	21.4%	14.5%	255	-0.78	2.69	1,292	52
Joe Ryan R 2023 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	29.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.301	3.37	27.5%	22.4%	436	-0.50	2.41	961	52
Michael Wacha R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP	4.19	20.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.247	4.89	21.0%	13.9%	285	+0.70	3.57	1,638	51
Taijuan Walker R 2020 · 4.24 FIP	27	SP	4.24	22.2%	8.4%	3.6%	.236	4.04	20.4%	12.1%	489	-0.20	3.51	1,276	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	152	22.2%	7.4%	1.64	4.75
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12