Bryce Miller — OGILVIE

Bryce Miller P Seattle Mariners

+0.7 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.3 · 2027

ERA4.36

FIP4.57

xFIP4.60

SIERA4.68

K%21.9%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%14.4%

IP153

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2027

K†5555

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

SI (17%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.9 (12%)

FB-6.0 (58%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	A	Modesto Nuts	5	3	9	45	15	2	0	—	—	—	4.82	—	—
2022	23	AA	Arkansas Travelers	27	26	134	543	163	46	10	24.2%	9.5%	2.1%	3.16	3.41	+2.9
2023	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	21.5%	4.7%	4.0%	4.59	4.11	+2.0
2024	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	24.3%	6.2%	3.1%	2.94	3.52	+3.6
2025	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	19.7%	8.4%	4.5%	5.47	4.99	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	SEA	14	14	77	324	73	24	12	22.6%	7.4%	3.7%	4.39	4.53	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	SEA	28	28	153	646	145	48	24	22.5%	7.5%	3.7%	4.49	4.56	+1.3
2028	29	MLB	SEA	27	27	150	632	139	48	24	22.0%	7.5%	3.7%	4.57	4.63	+1.1
2029	30	MLB	SEA	26	26	145	613	132	47	23	21.5%	7.6%	3.8%	4.66	4.72	+1.0
2030	31	MLB	SEA	25	25	140	591	123	46	23	20.9%	7.8%	3.9%	4.76	4.83	+0.7
2031	32	MLB	SEA	24	24	134	567	115	45	22	20.3%	7.9%	4.0%	4.87	4.94	+0.5
2032	33	MLB	SEA	23	23	128	542	106	44	22	19.6%	8.1%	4.0%	4.99	5.07	+0.3
2033	34	MLB	SEA	22	22	122	515	97	43	21	18.9%	8.3%	4.1%	5.12	5.21	+0.1
2034	35	MLB	SEA	21	21	115	486	88	41	21	18.2%	8.5%	4.3%	5.26	5.36	-0.1
2035	36	MLB	SEA	20	20	108	454	79	40	20	17.4%	8.8%	4.4%	5.42	5.52	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			113	110	578	2356	538	164	78	22.8%	7.0%	3.3%	3.91	3.88	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—			39	38	200	815	186	57	27	22.8%	7.0%	3.3%	3.91	3.88	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.6%	7.4%	3.7%	—	4.64	22.0%	14.5%	448	+0.11	—	—	—
Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	27	SW	3.69	21.1%	7.2%	2.7%	.292	4.09	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.40	2.67	382	54
Jay Flaa R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	27	SW	4.70	19.4%	9.8%	3.6%	.300	4.86	22.8%	4.7%	36	+0.16	3.62	273	52
Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SW	3.80	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.70	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.10	3.17	269	52
Matt Barnes R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	27	SW	3.43	28.9%	9.8%	2.8%	.296	3.02	36.3%	24.3%	149	-0.41	2.49	495	52
Félix Peña R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	27	SW	4.69	23.6%	8.7%	4.5%	.309	3.83	23.6%	15.3%	249	-0.86	2.67	615	51
Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	51
Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP	28	SW	3.91	20.2%	7.4%	2.9%	.348	3.55	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.36	2.38	160	51
Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	27	SW	3.48	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.33	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.85	2.36	309	51
José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	21.6%	8.3%	4.0%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.40	4.02	328	50
Will Vest R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	27	SW	3.45	23.2%	8.1%	2.3%	.309	2.88	25.4%	18.4%	200	-0.57	2.53	421	50
Drew Steckenrider R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	27	SW	3.40	27.2%	8.1%	2.9%	.284	3.87	22.1%	16.0%	82	+0.47	2.62	392	50
Kevin Quackenbush R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	27	SW	3.76	18.3%	7.2%	2.4%	.271	3.65	24.8%	17.1%	160	-0.11	2.32	334	50
Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP	26	SW	3.84	21.6%	8.2%	2.8%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	206	50
Brandon Brennan R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	27	SW	3.41	19.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.263	3.85	21.7%	12.0%	85	+0.44	3.12	403	50
Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	28	SW	4.19	17.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.250	4.61	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.42	3.86	231	50
Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	27	SW	4.05	21.1%	7.2%	3.3%	.174	3.39	24.7%	16.0%	206	-0.66	2.27	445	50
Kyle Keller R 2025 · 3.81 FIP	26	SW	3.81	28.7%	9.4%	3.5%	.293	4.72	28.0%	17.8%	52	+0.91	2.73	264	49
Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	22.7%	8.6%	2.9%	.209	4.78	22.2%	12.0%	89	+0.90	3.57	157	49
John Gorman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	27	SW	3.99	23.4%	7.5%	3.5%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	141	49
JC Ramírez R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	27	SW	4.28	17.6%	6.0%	3.5%	.266	4.59	15.9%	7.7%	188	+0.31	3.80	369	49

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.4M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.3	$11M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$14M		$23M	+$9M