Bryce Miller
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8475vR 66
ERA3.50
FIP3.67
K%26.5%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%20.7%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p9030.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.236
SI (17%)
CU (11%)
SL-0.9 (12%)
FB-6.0 (58%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 5 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 60% | 1.9 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 0.85 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 5 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 60% | 1.9 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 0.53 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 134 | 543 | 163 | 46 | 10 | 96% | 5.0 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 3.16 | 3.36 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 134 | 543 | 163 | 46 | 10 | 96% | 5.0 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 21.5% | 1.8% | 3.16 | 2.67 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 151 | 622 | 137 | 29 | 23 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.5% | 4.7% | 16.8% | 4.4% | 4.59 | 4.31 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 151 | 622 | 137 | 29 | 23 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.0% | 4.7% | 17.4% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 3.84 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 180 | 704 | 171 | 44 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 3.1% | 2.94 | 3.56 | +3.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 180 | 704 | 171 | 44 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 2.94 | 3.45 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 442 | 89 | 37 | 21 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 5.47 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 442 | 89 | 37 | 21 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 5.47 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 14 | 13 | 71 | 270 | 79 | 15 | 8 | 93% | 5.1 | 30.2% | 3.7% | 26.5% | 3.7% | 2.14 | 3.06 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 80 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 5.8% | 20.7% | 3.8% | 3.50 | 3.67 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 80 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 5.8% | 20.7% | 3.7% | 3.44 | 3.61 | +1.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 142 | 570 | 159 | 32 | 19 | — | — | 27.8% | 5.7% | 22.1% | 3.4% | 2.82 | 3.36 | +3.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 129 | 544 | 159 | 32 | 19 | — | — | 29.2% | 6.0% | 23.2% | 3.5% | 3.09 | 3.31 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 27 | 162 | 685 | 174 | 41 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 3.9% | 4.13 | 4.24 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 162 | 41 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 18.4% | 4.0% | 4.29 | 4.40 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 146 | 615 | 148 | 40 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 17.5% | 4.2% | 4.48 | 4.60 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 134 | 40 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 6.9% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 4.69 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 173 | 41 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 4.19 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 162 | 41 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 18.4% | 3.9% | 4.23 | 4.34 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 148 | 41 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 17.5% | 4.1% | 4.42 | 4.54 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 134 | 40 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 6.9% | 16.4% | 4.3% | 4.63 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 197 | 196 | 1130 | 4677 | 1125 | 292 | 177 | 99% | 5.7 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.8% | 3.8% | 4.05 | 3.94 | +19.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 828 | 199 | 52 | 31 | 99% | 5.7 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.8% | 3.8% | 4.05 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 123 | 649 | 2626 | 620 | 174 | 91 | 97% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 3.71 | 3.86 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 809 | 191 | 54 | 28 | 97% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 3.71 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | — | 4.41 | 24.7% | 18.4% | 463 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 48 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 47 |
| Aaron Civale R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.64 | 24.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | .294 | 4.14 | 21.7% | 14.5% | 385 | +0.50 | 3.37 | 1,170 | 47 |
| Brandon White R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 46 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 45 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 45 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 45 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 302 | 45 |
| Joe Ryan R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.85 | 29.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | .301 | 3.18 | 28.0% | 22.7% | 416 | -0.67 | 2.43 | 941 | 44 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 44 |
| Austin Voth R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.54 | 23.5% | 6.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.50 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 209 | +0.96 | 3.43 | 1,132 | 44 |
| Domingo Germán R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.34 | 25.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 22.0% | 15.5% | 171 | -0.26 | 3.24 | 777 | 43 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 43 |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.58 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | .249 | 5.16 | 17.5% | 11.6% | 83 | +1.58 | 3.47 | 824 | 43 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 32.7% | 9.2% | 4.5% | .286 | 2.96 | 31.4% | 21.8% | 148 | -0.99 | 2.21 | 778 | 42 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 42 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 42 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 42 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.74 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 256 | 42 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 41 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 152 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 1.57 | 4.40 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Mike Fiers ('20) | 6 | 153 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 1.50 | 4.17 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |