Bryce Miller

P Seattle Mariners

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MLBSEA	31	31	180	2.94	3.45	24.3%	6.2%	4.3
2025	26	MIX2 levels	21	21	104	5.47	5.09	20.1%	8.4%	0.4	K 19.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.11
2026	27	MIX3 levels	26	25	132	3.94	4.15	24.6%	8.1%	2.0	K 24.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	17	17	103	4.43	4.66	23.5%	7.7%	0.9
2028PROJ	29	MLBSEA	16	16	99	4.67	4.82	22.9%	7.9%	0.7
2029PROJ	30	MLBSEA	14	14	87	4.89	5.03	22.2%	8.2%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo70

xwOBA vs65

K%62

Form4.38 ERA (proj 4.43) · K 24.8% (proj 23.5%) · BB 11.9% (proj 7.7%) ▼ last 60d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsChase Anderson (age 28) · Matt Shoemaker (age 28) · Anthony DeSclafani (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.43

FIP4.66

K%23.5%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP103

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	5	3	9	45	15	2	0	60%	1.9	33.3%	4.4%	28.9%	0.0%	4.82	0.85	—
2021	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	5	3	9	45	15	2	0	60%	1.9	33.3%	4.4%	28.9%	0.0%	4.82	0.53	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	134	543	163	46	10	96%	5.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.6%	2.1%	3.16	3.43	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	134	543	163	46	10	96%	5.0	30.0%	8.5%	21.5%	1.8%	3.16	2.67	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	100%	5.2	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	4.1%	4.59	4.13	+2.3
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	100%	5.2	22.0%	4.7%	17.4%	3.7%	4.59	3.84	+2.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.1%	2.94	3.52	+4.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.1%	2.94	3.52	+4.1
2024	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.0%	2.94	3.45	+4.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.8%	5.47	5.11	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.8%	5.47	5.11	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	20.1%	8.4%	11.8%	4.8%	5.47	5.09	+0.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	132	540	133	44	21	96%	5.1	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	4.4%	3.94	4.43	+1.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	132	540	133	44	21	96%	5.1	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	4.4%	3.94	4.43	+1.5
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	132	540	133	44	21	96%	5.1	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	3.9%	3.94	4.15	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	95	521	2118	483	141	77	99%	5.4	22.8%	6.7%	16.1%	3.6%	4.04	3.98	+8.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	17	17	103	435	102	33	17	100%	6.1	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	4.0%	4.43	4.66	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	99	419	96	33	17	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	4.1%	4.67	4.82	+0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	87	369	82	30	16	100%	5.8	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	4.3%	4.89	5.03	+0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	73	309	66	26	14	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.9%	4.6%	5.11	5.26	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	99	418	96	33	17	100%	6.2	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	4.1%	4.67	4.82	+0.7
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	87	367	82	30	16	100%	6.2	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	4.3%	4.89	5.03	+0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	73	308	66	26	14	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.9%	4.6%	5.11	5.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	138	780	3215	727	231	125	99%	5.6	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	3.9%	4.32	4.23	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	824	186	59	32	99%	5.6	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	3.9%	4.32	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		139	135	710	2896	670	205	104	97%	5.1	23.1%	7.1%	16.1%	3.6%	3.92	4.01	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	815	189	58	29	97%	5.1	23.1%	7.1%	16.1%	3.6%	3.92	4.01	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 8 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.31 (+0.77)K% 26.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.770	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.150	15.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 6 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.73 (+0.13)K% 24.0% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.860	20.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×0.900	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 13 IPFIP 5.72 → 5.62 (−0.10)K% 30.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.860	25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×0.900	5.40%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷1.204	×1.100	7.31%

Result: FIP 5.72 → 5.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 20 IPFIP 4.99 → 6.69 (+1.70)K% 21.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.18%	—	×0.810	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.53%	—	×1.100	3.88%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷0.853	×1.200	8.28%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 4.99 → 6.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 78 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.44 (+0.77)K% 31.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.33%	—	×0.770	24.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.91%	—	×1.150	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.237	×1.250	2.24%

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 51 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.42 (+0.86)K% 29.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.90%	—	×0.810	24.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.31%	—	×1.100	10.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.909	×1.200	1.94%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AModesto Nuts · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.58 (+0.48)K% 13.0% → 9.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.740	9.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.855	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 9 IPFIP 0.85 → 1.68 (+0.83)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×1.180	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.861	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.85 → 1.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.0%	—	5.01	22.2%	14.1%	260	+0.35	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	68
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	65
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	64
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	64
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	61
Domingo Germán R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP-	4.05	23.9%	6.6%	3.9%	.269	4.52	21.8%	13.7%	277	+0.47	3.29	777	59
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	59
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	58
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	58
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	57
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	57
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	57
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	57
Ryan Rupe R 2002 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	17.5%	6.5%	2.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	467	56
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2009 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	19.1%	10.2%	3.5%	.374	4.37	19.1%	8.0%	237	-0.36	3.77	790	56
Iván Nova R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP	4.44	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	.283	4.33	17.3%	13.1%	510	-0.11	3.10	1,348	55
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	55
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	55
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	54
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	110	22.7%	7.3%	1.51	4.33
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.7	90	24.6%	7.6%	1.62	4.54
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Ian Kennedy ('23)	9.5	146	21.9%	8.0%	1.32	4.16
Dennis Bennett ('62-'68, 7 WAR*)	4.3	123	19.8%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.40*
Paul Moskau ('77-'83, 3 WAR*)	3.2	91	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.50*	4.84*
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*