Boston Bateman — OGILVIE

Boston Bateman P Frederick Keys

Age 20 LHP 6'8" / 240 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%19.9%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$35M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD2550

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.7M
Totals		$21M		$30M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	0.6%	4.14	3.38	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	0.6%	4.14	3.38	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	24.7%	10.0%	14.7%	0.5%	4.14	2.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	21	86	370	117	48	5	88%	3.6	24.3%	14.9%	9.4%	1.7%	3.65	3.86	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	21	86	370	117	48	5	88%	3.6	24.3%	14.9%	9.4%	1.7%	3.65	3.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	BAL	24	21	86	370	117	48	5	88%	3.6	31.6%	13.0%	18.6%	1.4%	3.65	2.81	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	5	22	4	2	1	100%	5.1	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	2.6%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	91	392	121	50	6	—	—	31.0%	12.9%	18.1%	1.4%	3.71	3.91	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	89	375	79	39	10	100%	4.9	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	2.6%	4.50	4.42	+0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	93	393	88	37	10	100%	5.2	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.5%	4.30	4.17	+0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	97	408	94	36	10	100%	5.4	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	2.5%	4.14	4.02	+1.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	99	418	99	35	10	100%	5.5	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.5%	4.01	3.92	+1.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	100	423	102	35	10	100%	5.9	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	2.5%	3.92	3.86	+1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	100	423	102	35	10	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.3%	16.0%	2.5%	3.87	3.84	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	99	417	101	35	11	100%	6.2	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.5%	3.87	3.88	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	96	404	97	34	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	2.6%	3.92	3.96	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	91	386	92	34	11	100%	6.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	2.8%	4.02	4.09	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	86	363	85	33	11	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.0%	14.5%	3.0%	4.17	4.27	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	80	338	78	32	11	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	3.2%	4.35	4.47	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	74	313	77	28	11	100%	6.2	24.6%	9.0%	15.7%	3.4%	4.40	4.43	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	68	287	69	27	11	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.7%	4.57	4.68	+0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	44	186	39	19	5	100%	4.9	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	2.7%	4.56	4.48	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	68	287	64	27	8	100%	5.2	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.6%	4.36	4.23	+0.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	82	346	80	31	9	100%	5.5	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	2.6%	4.20	4.08	+0.9
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	88	372	88	31	10	100%	5.5	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.6%	4.07	3.98	+1.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	92	388	93	32	10	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	2.6%	3.98	3.92	+1.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	93	393	95	32	10	100%	5.8	24.2%	8.3%	16.0%	2.6%	3.93	3.90	+1.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	94	397	96	33	10	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.6%	3.93	3.94	+1.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	93	33	11	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	2.7%	3.98	4.02	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	87	367	88	32	11	100%	6.2	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.09	4.16	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	82	346	81	31	11	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.0%	14.5%	3.1%	4.24	4.34	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	76	321	74	30	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	3.3%	4.43	4.55	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	70	296	73	27	11	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.0%	15.7%	3.6%	4.49	4.52	+0.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	65	274	66	26	11	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.9%	4.66	4.77	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	179	1031	4354	1029	384	126	100%	5.8	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	2.9%	4.19	3.81	+13.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	200	74	24	100%	5.8	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	2.9%	4.19	3.81	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		44	41	173	750	160	100	9	93%	3.9	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	1.2%	3.89	3.62	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	865	185	115	10	93%	3.9	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	1.2%	3.89	3.62	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Boston Bateman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.9%	11.5%	2.6%	—	4.20	22.2%	12.7%	278	-0.47	—	—	—
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	89
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	87
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	87
Miguel Pozo L 2022 · 3.54 FIP	20	SP	3.54	23.2%	11.6%	1.7%	.312	5.04	16.5%	-5.7%	24	+1.50	3.54	110	85
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	19.6%	10.6%	2.2%	.290	4.53	14.4%	-1.1%	83	+0.51	3.39	148	85
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	85
Luis Moncada L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.87	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.06	3.81	296	84
Avery Short L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP	4.65	15.9%	9.7%	3.0%	.368	4.79	16.8%	7.7%	231	+0.14	4.20	485	83
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	83
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	83
Sam Hentges L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	20	SP	4.60	19.0%	12.0%	2.9%	.362	4.14	18.1%	6.5%	260	-0.46	2.22	609	82
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	82
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	82
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	82
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	81
Tomas Reyes L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	19	SP	3.85	15.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.277	4.36	14.1%	5.1%	57	+0.51	3.85	154	81
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	81
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Trevor Rogers L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	20	SP	3.49	19.2%	9.7%	1.4%	.389	3.09	25.0%	17.5%	297	-0.40	2.33	939	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	88	23.3%	9.0%	1.06	4.16
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59