Boston Bateman — OGILVIE

Boston Bateman P Frederick Keys

+0.9 WAR

Age 20 LHP 6'8" / 240 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 3.0 · 2031

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.2%

IP87

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.0peak

2031

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	18.4%	11.7%	0.7%	4.14	3.39	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Frederick Keys	2	1	6	26	9	4	0	—	—	—	11.12	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	BAL	16	16	87	367	79	38	9	21.6%	10.4%	2.6%	4.38	4.38	+0.8
2026 Total	20	MLB	BAL	—	—	93	393	88	42	9	22.5%	10.7%	2.4%	4.79	4.11	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	BAL	17	17	91	386	85	37	10	22.1%	9.6%	2.6%	4.29	4.24	+1.0
2028	22	MLB	BAL	21	21	118	498	114	44	13	23.0%	8.9%	2.5%	4.15	4.06	+1.7
2029	23	MLB	BAL	26	26	142	601	142	51	15	23.6%	8.5%	2.5%	4.02	3.94	+2.2
2030	24	MLB	BAL	29	29	162	684	165	56	17	24.1%	8.2%	2.5%	3.92	3.85	+2.7
2031	25	MLB	BAL	32	32	176	743	182	60	18	24.5%	8.1%	2.5%	3.84	3.79	+3.0
2032	26	MLB	BAL	32	32	176	743	184	60	18	24.7%	8.1%	2.5%	3.80	3.77	+3.1
2033	27	MLB	BAL	32	32	175	738	183	60	18	24.8%	8.1%	2.5%	3.79	3.78	+3.0
2034	28	MLB	BAL	32	32	174	735	182	60	19	24.7%	8.1%	2.5%	3.80	3.81	+2.9
2035	29	MLB	BAL	31	31	170	719	177	59	18	24.6%	8.2%	2.6%	3.83	3.85	+2.8
2036	30	MLB	BAL	30	30	165	697	170	58	18	24.4%	8.3%	2.6%	3.88	3.92	+2.6
2037	31	MLB	BAL	29	29	159	673	162	57	18	24.1%	8.4%	2.7%	3.95	3.99	+2.4
2038	32	MLB	BAL	28	28	153	646	154	55	18	23.8%	8.6%	2.8%	4.03	4.08	+2.1
2039	33	MLB	BAL	27	27	146	616	145	54	18	23.5%	8.8%	2.9%	4.12	4.18	+1.9
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			22	21	93	406	79	49	3	19.4%	11.9%	0.6%	4.56	3.31	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			47	45	200	876	171	106	6	19.4%	11.9%	0.6%	4.56	3.31	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Boston Bateman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	21.6%	10.4%	2.6%	—	4.06	23.0%	14.1%	352	-0.32	—	—	—
Brett Adcock L 2027 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP-	4.06	19.7%	10.0%	2.5%	.294	4.61	17.2%	2.8%	193	+0.55	4.02	301	89
Jonathan Santucci L 2028 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP-	3.63	22.6%	9.6%	2.2%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	118	86
Josh Hader L 2027 · 3.49 FIP	21	SP-	3.49	22.1%	8.8%	2.1%	.287	3.40	31.9%	20.5%	307	-0.09	1.34	794	86
Connelly Early L 2028 · 3.34 FIP	22	SP-	3.34	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	2.66	27.5%	17.6%	139	-0.68	2.56	243	86
A.J. Block L 2029 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	22.8%	10.0%	2.4%	.262	5.75	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	85
Will Johnston L 2029 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP-	3.96	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.18	23.6%	9.9%	70	+0.22	3.96	162	85
Adam Seminaris L 2028 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.74	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.21	3.01	453	84
Hayden Mullins L 2029 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.85	24.0%	10.3%	102	-0.55	3.85	191	84
Joe Whitman L 2028 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP-	3.91	18.6%	9.9%	2.1%	.303	3.79	20.4%	10.8%	131	-0.12	3.78	234	84
Keegan Akin L 2028 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP-	4.63	20.2%	12.5%	3.0%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.37	2.56	718	84
Greg Farone L 2029 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.301	3.20	24.3%	17.7%	12	-1.10	3.20	117	84
Rylan Kaufman L 2028 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	19.3%	12.1%	3.0%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.08	4.01	212	84
Will Dion L 2028 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP-	3.40	22.7%	7.9%	2.2%	.285	4.12	20.6%	11.1%	332	+0.72	3.39	448	84
Gage Jump L 2028 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP-	3.19	22.6%	7.9%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	113	83
Anthony Veneziano L 2029 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	5.02	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.75	4.27	501	83
Brandon Finnegan L 2028 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	21.3%	12.8%	2.9%	.287	5.02	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.52	3.85	489	83
Jordan Wicks L 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	23.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.329	4.15	21.1%	12.8%	278	+0.30	3.00	373	83
Pete Hansen L 2029 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.80	17.8%	10.1%	266	-0.38	3.75	378	83
Nick Zwack L 2029 · 3.15 FIP	23	SP-	3.15	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.76	18.2%	8.4%	143	+2.61	3.15	248	83
Kevin Smith L 2028 · 3.25 FIP	22	SP-	3.25	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.79	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.54	3.25	248	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.7	$24M	+$23M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.0	$28M	+$27M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.0	$29M	+$28M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.0	$30M	+$23M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.9	$29M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+2.8	$29M	+$14M
Totals		$35M		$169M	+$134M