Boston Bateman — OGILVIE

Boston Bateman P Frederick Keys

Age 20 LHP 6'8" / 240 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 61 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%19.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP61

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD2550

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$13M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	0.7%	4.14	3.39	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	24.7%	10.0%	14.7%	0.5%	4.14	2.55	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Frederick Keys	16	13	66	285	85	34	5	81%	4.1	23.0%	13.7%	9.2%	2.2%	3.93	4.10	+0.5
ROS	20	MLB	BAL	12	12	61	257	51	30	7	100%	5.1	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	2.7%	4.73	4.73	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	BAL	—	—	127	542	136	64	12	—	—	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	2.1%	4.29	4.38	+1.5
2026 FULL	20	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	2.7%	4.73	4.35	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	BAL	13	13	64	270	57	29	7	100%	4.9	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	2.6%	4.52	4.44	+0.1
2028	22	MLB	BAL	13	13	67	283	64	27	7	100%	5.2	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	2.5%	4.32	4.19	+0.4
2029	23	MLB	BAL	13	13	70	294	68	27	7	100%	5.4	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	2.5%	4.15	4.04	+0.6
2030	24	MLB	BAL	13	13	71	301	72	26	7	100%	5.5	23.9%	8.7%	15.2%	2.5%	4.02	3.93	+0.7
2031	25	MLB	BAL	12	12	72	305	74	26	8	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	2.5%	3.93	3.87	+0.8
2032	26	MLB	BAL	12	12	72	305	75	26	8	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.5%	16.0%	2.5%	3.88	3.84	+0.8
2033	27	MLB	BAL	12	12	71	300	73	26	8	100%	5.9	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	2.5%	3.88	3.88	+0.8
2034	28	MLB	BAL	12	12	69	291	71	25	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.7%	15.6%	2.6%	3.93	3.97	+0.6
2035	29	MLB	BAL	11	11	66	278	67	25	8	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	2.8%	4.03	4.10	+0.4
2036	30	MLB	BAL	10	10	62	261	62	24	8	100%	6.2	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.28	+0.2
2037	31	MLB	BAL	10	10	58	244	57	23	8	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.6%	13.8%	3.2%	4.36	4.48	+0.0
2038	32	MLB	BAL	9	9	53	225	52	22	8	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.70	-0.1
2039	33	MLB	BAL	8	8	49	207	46	22	8	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	3.7%	4.80	4.95	-0.2
2027	21	MLB	BAL	7	7	32	135	29	14	4	100%	4.6	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	2.6%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
2028	22	MLB	BAL	10	10	49	207	47	20	5	100%	4.9	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.37	4.24	+0.2
2029	23	MLB	BAL	11	11	59	249	58	23	6	100%	5.4	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	2.6%	4.20	4.09	+0.3
2030	24	MLB	BAL	11	11	64	270	64	24	7	100%	5.8	23.9%	8.7%	15.2%	2.6%	4.07	3.98	+0.5
2031	25	MLB	BAL	11	11	66	279	68	24	7	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	2.6%	3.98	3.92	+0.6
2032	26	MLB	BAL	11	11	67	283	69	24	7	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.5%	16.0%	2.6%	3.93	3.89	+0.6
2033	27	MLB	BAL	11	11	68	287	70	24	8	100%	6.2	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	2.6%	3.93	3.93	+0.6
2034	28	MLB	BAL	11	11	66	279	68	24	8	100%	6.0	24.3%	8.7%	15.6%	2.7%	3.98	4.02	+0.5
2035	29	MLB	BAL	10	10	63	266	64	24	8	100%	6.3	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	2.9%	4.09	4.16	+0.3
2036	30	MLB	BAL	10	10	59	249	59	23	8	100%	5.9	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.1%	4.24	4.34	+0.1
2037	31	MLB	BAL	9	9	55	232	54	22	8	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.6%	13.8%	3.3%	4.43	4.55	+0.0
2038	32	MLB	BAL	8	8	51	215	49	21	8	100%	6.4	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	3.6%	4.64	4.77	-0.1
2039	33	MLB	BAL	8	8	47	198	44	21	8	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	3.9%	4.88	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			129	129	743	3139	740	287	90	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.21	3.84	+13.6
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	199	77	24	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.21	3.84	+3.7
Career	—			36	33	153	665	135	84	9	92%	4.3	20.4%	12.6%	7.8%	1.3%	4.05	3.69	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—			47	43	200	867	177	109	11	92%	4.3	20.4%	12.6%	7.8%	1.3%	4.05	3.69	+4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Boston Bateman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	19.9%	11.6%	2.6%	—	4.22	22.3%	12.6%	201	-0.46	—	—	—
Evan Shawver L 2028 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	18.8%	10.6%	2.2%	.289	4.64	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.60	4.01	258	88
Cam Caminiti L 2025 · 4.10 FIP	19	SP	4.10	17.6%	12.3%	1.7%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	138	85
Rylan Kaufman L 2028 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.3%	12.1%	2.4%	.305	4.69	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.34	4.01	212	85
Luis Moncada L 2026 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.85	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.04	3.81	296	85
John Beller L 2028 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	84
Yadiel Batista L 2026 · 4.72 FIP	20	SP	4.72	15.5%	10.2%	3.0%	.318	4.30	14.1%	6.1%	116	-0.42	3.08	201	84
Packy Naughton L 2027 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.57	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.88	2.97	504	84
Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.32 FIP	20	SP	4.32	19.0%	12.0%	2.4%	.362	4.28	18.1%	6.5%	260	-0.04	2.22	594	83
Mason Molina L 2028 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	83
Christian MacLeod L 2029 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	16.4%	10.5%	2.4%	.312	4.46	21.0%	7.7%	184	+0.10	3.84	249	83
Avery Short L 2026 · 4.80 FIP	20	SP	4.80	15.9%	9.7%	3.3%	.368	5.02	16.8%	7.7%	231	+0.22	4.31	460	83
Tomas Reyes L 2025 · 3.85 FIP	19	SP	3.85	15.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.277	4.46	14.1%	5.1%	57	+0.61	3.85	154	82
Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	82
Anfernee Benitez L 2026 · 4.76 FIP	20	SP	4.76	18.1%	10.7%	3.3%	.383	3.92	17.8%	1.5%	71	-0.84	3.85	137	82
Keegan Akin L 2028 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	20.2%	12.5%	2.4%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.04	2.54	743	82
Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP	20	SP	3.59	23.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.276	3.80	23.0%	7.5%	68	+0.21	2.98	166	82
Johnny King L 2026 · 4.22 FIP	20	SP	4.22	23.7%	15.4%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	129	81
Caden Grice L 2028 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	23.1%	15.7%	2.0%	.282	5.28	17.3%	1.8%	55	+1.05	4.23	105	81
Jay Groome L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	18	SP	4.20	21.6%	14.8%	1.9%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	420	81
Joe Whitman L 2028 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.53	21.0%	12.2%	199	-0.37	3.35	302	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	65	23.2%	9.4%	1.06	4.20
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Brad Hand ('23)	9	64	27.2%	8.6%	0.89	3.53
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94