Boston Bateman

P Frederick Keys

Age 21 LHP 6'8" / 240 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#151ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	20	20	87	4.14	2.55	24.7%	10.0%	—	K 18.4% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.38
2026	20	A+BAL	24	21	86	3.65	2.81	31.6%	13.0%	—	K 24.3% · BB 14.9% · FIP 3.86
2027PROJ	21	MLBBAL	—	—	0	4.61	4.61	23.4%	13.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBAL	7	7	35	4.48	4.37	24.3%	11.9%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBAL	10	10	52	4.29	4.17	24.9%	10.7%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 74%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Sam Weatherly (age 22) · John Beller (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%23.4%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$37M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$32M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	0.6%	4.14	3.38	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	0.6%	4.14	3.38	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	87	380	94	38	2	100%	4.3	24.7%	10.0%	14.7%	0.5%	4.14	2.55	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	21	86	370	117	48	5	88%	3.6	24.3%	14.9%	9.4%	1.7%	3.65	3.86	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	21	86	370	117	48	5	88%	3.6	24.3%	14.9%	9.4%	1.7%	3.65	3.86	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	24	21	86	370	117	48	5	88%	3.6	31.6%	13.0%	18.6%	1.4%	3.65	2.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	13.6%	9.8%	2.5%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	71	299	73	35	8	100%	5.0	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	2.5%	4.42	4.31	+0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	71	299	74	32	7	100%	5.4	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	2.5%	4.23	4.11	+1.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	71	299	75	30	7	100%	5.4	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	2.5%	4.08	3.97	+1.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	68	287	73	27	7	100%	5.7	25.6%	9.5%	16.1%	2.5%	3.97	3.89	+1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	68	289	74	27	7	100%	6.2	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	2.5%	3.91	3.87	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	67	282	73	27	7	100%	6.1	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	2.5%	3.91	3.90	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	269	69	26	7	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	2.6%	3.96	3.99	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	59	250	64	25	7	100%	5.9	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	2.8%	4.06	4.12	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	59	249	67	23	7	100%	5.9	27.1%	9.4%	17.7%	3.0%	4.04	4.03	+1.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	52	220	59	21	7	100%	5.8	26.7%	9.7%	16.9%	3.2%	4.15	4.23	+0.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	45	191	50	19	7	100%	5.7	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	3.5%	4.33	4.46	+0.5
2039	33	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	39	164	42	17	6	100%	6.5	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	3.7%	4.56	4.71	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	35	148	36	18	4	100%	5.0	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	2.6%	4.48	4.37	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	52	220	55	23	6	100%	5.2	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	2.6%	4.29	4.17	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	59	249	63	25	7	100%	5.4	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	2.6%	4.14	4.03	+1.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	65	24	7	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.5%	16.1%	2.6%	4.03	3.95	+1.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	62	262	68	25	7	100%	6.2	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	2.6%	3.97	3.93	+1.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	62	262	67	25	7	100%	6.2	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	2.7%	3.97	3.96	+1.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	65	24	7	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	2.8%	4.03	4.06	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	56	236	60	23	7	100%	6.2	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	2.9%	4.13	4.19	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	56	236	64	22	7	100%	6.2	27.1%	9.4%	17.7%	3.1%	4.11	4.10	+0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	50	211	56	21	7	100%	6.2	26.7%	9.7%	16.9%	3.4%	4.23	4.31	+0.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	43	182	48	18	7	100%	6.1	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	3.6%	4.42	4.55	+0.5
2039	33	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	37	156	40	17	6	100%	6.2	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	3.9%	4.65	4.80	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	631	2665	686	264	78	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.9%	15.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.78	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	84	25	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.9%	15.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.78	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		44	41	173	750	160	100	9	93%	3.9	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	1.2%	3.89	3.62	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	865	185	115	10	93%	3.9	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	1.2%	3.89	3.62	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 86 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.86 (+1.05)K% 31.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.770	24.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.97%	—	×1.150	14.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 76 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.03 (+0.81)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.31%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 11 IPFIP 4.61 → 5.45 (+0.84)K% 23.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.21%	—	×0.770	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.64%	—	×1.150	22.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.229	×1.250	1.82%

Result: FIP 4.61 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Boston Bateman (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.13	24.8%	14.0%	212	-0.48	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	89
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	86
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	85
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	85
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	84
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	82
Yereny Teus L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	20	SP	3.57	23.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.276	3.33	24.6%	10.0%	88	-0.24	2.63	185	82
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	81
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	81
Miguel Flores L 2024 · 4.30 FIP	19	SP	4.30	21.2%	16.5%	1.6%	.294	4.90	17.4%	-0.3%	127	+0.60	4.30	173	81
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	80
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	80
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	80
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	79
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	79
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	79
Allen Facundo L 2024 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP	3.45	22.3%	13.1%	1.1%	.233	3.99	21.8%	5.2%	148	+0.54	2.84	257	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	61	25.5%	10.3%	1.06	4.15
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Andrew Miller ('21)	4.1	59	27.1%	10.6%	0.87	4.03
Brian Fuentes ('12)	3.1	56	24.4%	9.8%	0.94	3.62
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*