Allen Facundo

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 171 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#741ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ANYY	8	7	30	2.40	2.40	30.2%	11.1%	—	K 22.3% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.45
2025	22	MIX2 levels	10	9	39	1.85	2.10	29.4%	11.1%	—	K 19.6% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.03
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	22	114	4.01	3.24	29.2%	15.4%	—	K 22.4% · BB 17.8% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	1	1	1	5.18	5.18	22.8%	17.9%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	8	8	45	5.05	4.97	23.1%	15.5%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYY	10	10	63	4.94	4.90	23.2%	14.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsTate Kuehner (age 23) · Andrew Sears (age 21) · Cody Reed (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 132

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%22.8%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP134

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	14	11	49	207	84	27	0	79%	3.5	27.6%	16.3%	11.3%	0.0%	4.25	2.84	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	14	11	49	207	84	27	0	79%	3.5	40.6%	13.0%	27.5%	0.0%	4.25	1.31	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	2	30	126	40	13	0	18%	2.8	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	0.0%	2.37	2.91	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	2	30	126	40	13	0	18%	2.8	31.7%	10.3%	21.4%	0.0%	2.37	1.75	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	8	7	30	126	38	14	1	88%	3.8	22.3%	13.1%	9.2%	1.1%	2.40	3.45	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	8	7	30	126	38	14	1	88%	3.8	22.3%	13.1%	9.2%	1.1%	2.40	3.45	—
2024	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	8	7	30	126	38	14	1	88%	3.8	30.2%	11.1%	19.0%	0.8%	2.40	2.40	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	39	153	45	17	0	90%	3.9	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	0.0%	1.85	3.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	39	153	45	17	0	90%	3.9	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	0.0%	1.85	3.03	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	39	153	45	17	0	90%	3.9	29.4%	11.1%	18.3%	0.0%	1.85	2.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	114	506	148	78	6	100%	5.2	22.4%	17.8%	4.6%	1.5%	4.01	4.27	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	114	506	148	78	6	100%	5.2	22.4%	17.8%	4.6%	1.5%	4.01	4.27	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	114	506	148	78	6	100%	5.2	29.2%	15.4%	13.8%	1.2%	4.01	3.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	22.8%	17.9%	5.0%	2.5%	5.18	5.18	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	105	443	102	69	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	15.5%	7.6%	2.5%	4.96	4.88	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	95	399	93	59	10	100%	5.9	23.2%	14.9%	8.4%	2.6%	4.85	4.81	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	89	377	87	55	10	100%	6.0	23.2%	14.6%	8.6%	2.6%	4.82	4.82	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	84	356	82	52	10	100%	6.0	23.0%	14.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.85	4.89	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	330	75	49	10	100%	6.0	22.8%	14.8%	8.0%	2.9%	4.95	5.02	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	71	300	67	45	9	100%	5.9	22.4%	15.1%	7.3%	3.1%	5.10	5.20	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	45	190	44	29	5	100%	5.6	23.1%	15.5%	7.6%	2.7%	5.05	4.97	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	63	266	62	40	7	100%	6.3	23.2%	14.9%	8.4%	2.7%	4.94	4.90	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	69	291	68	43	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	14.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	71	300	69	44	9	100%	5.9	23.0%	14.6%	8.4%	2.9%	4.95	4.99	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	68	287	65	42	9	100%	6.2	22.8%	14.8%	8.0%	3.1%	5.06	5.13	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	64	270	61	41	9	100%	5.8	22.4%	15.1%	7.3%	3.3%	5.21	5.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	380	1605	368	239	47	100%	5.9	23.0%	14.9%	8.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.66	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	126	25	100%	6.0	23.0%	14.9%	8.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.66	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		65	51	262	1118	256	176	9	78%	4.0	22.9%	15.7%	7.2%	0.8%	3.36	3.59	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	852	195	134	7	78%	4.0	22.9%	15.7%	7.2%	0.8%	3.36	3.59	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 99 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.55 (+1.02)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.52%	—	×0.770	21.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.88%	—	×1.150	18.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 15 IPFIP 1.02 → 2.23 (+1.20)K% 42.4% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.37%	—	×0.740	31.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.86%	—	×1.180	14.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.02 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 34 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.03 (+0.82)K% 26.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.52%	—	×0.740	19.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×1.180	12.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.842	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 5 IPFIP 0.89 → 2.63 (+1.74)K% 47.6% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.62%	—	×0.680	32.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.250	17.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷2.059	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 312).

Result: FIP 0.89 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 30 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.45 (+1.06)K% 30.2% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.16%	—	×0.740	22.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.79%	÷0.979	×1.300	1.05%

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 30 IPFIP 1.73 → 2.91 (+1.18)K% 31.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.75%	—	×0.680	21.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.250	12.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.383	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.73 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Yankees 1 · 49 IPFIP 1.33 → 2.84 (+1.51)K% 40.6% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.58%	—	×0.680	27.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.250	16.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.231	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.33 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Allen Facundo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.84	23.2%	8.2%	289	-0.34	—	—	—
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	81
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	75
Cody Reed L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	19.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.301	3.86	22.0%	13.8%	181	-0.44	2.90	572	75
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	75
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	74
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	73
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	73
Brandon Williamson L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	24	SP	4.36	18.6%	15.0%	1.7%	.304	4.76	18.7%	10.0%	165	+0.40	3.62	454	72
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	71
Kyle Carr L 2024 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	16.2%	14.0%	1.3%	.310	4.47	18.6%	7.1%	223	+0.23	4.19	327	71
Dalton Rogers L 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	17.7%	14.9%	1.2%	.324	4.76	20.4%	4.7%	185	+0.59	3.47	364	71
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	71
Hobbs Johnson L 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	14.9%	16.6%	1.1%	.254	5.14	12.3%	-5.3%	25	+0.60	4.54	143	70
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	70
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	70
Keegan Akin L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	24	SP	4.13	22.9%	12.7%	2.5%	.329	3.98	22.3%	14.5%	202	-0.15	2.62	743	69
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	69
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	69
Cody Dickson L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP	4.85	13.9%	16.4%	1.5%	.292	5.48	15.9%	1.3%	72	+0.63	3.88	354	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	94	23.0%	15.5%	1.03	4.97
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
John D'Acquisto ('73-'82, -3 WAR*)	3.9	97	25.1%*	15.1%*	0.92*	5.36*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68