Allen Facundo — OGILVIE

Allen Facundo P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 171 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 125

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%22.1%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	14	11	49	207	84	27	0	79%	3.5	27.6%	16.3%	11.3%	0.0%	4.25	2.84	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	14	11	49	207	84	27	0	79%	3.5	40.6%	13.0%	27.5%	0.0%	4.25	1.31	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	2	30	126	40	13	0	18%	2.8	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	0.0%	2.37	2.91	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	2	30	126	40	13	0	18%	2.8	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	0.0%	2.37	2.91	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	2	30	126	40	13	0	18%	2.8	31.7%	10.3%	21.4%	0.0%	2.37	1.75	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	8	7	30	126	38	14	1	88%	3.8	22.3%	13.1%	9.2%	1.1%	2.40	3.45	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	8	7	30	126	38	14	1	88%	3.8	22.3%	13.1%	9.2%	1.1%	2.40	3.45	—
2024	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	8	7	30	126	38	14	1	88%	3.8	30.2%	11.1%	19.0%	0.8%	2.40	2.40	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	39	153	45	17	0	90%	3.9	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	0.0%	1.85	3.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	39	153	45	17	0	90%	3.9	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	0.0%	1.85	3.03	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	39	153	45	17	0	90%	3.9	29.4%	11.1%	18.3%	0.0%	1.85	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	22	22	114	506	148	78	6	100%	5.2	22.4%	17.8%	4.6%	1.5%	4.01	4.27	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	22	22	114	506	148	78	6	100%	5.2	22.4%	17.8%	4.6%	1.5%	4.01	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	NYY	3	3	15	59	25	7	0	100%	5.0	42.4%	11.9%	30.5%	0.0%	1.20	1.02	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYY	19	19	99	447	123	71	6	100%	5.2	27.5%	15.9%	11.6%	1.3%	4.44	3.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	115	485	110	59	13	100%	5.7	22.6%	12.2%	10.5%	2.7%	4.66	4.60	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	116	491	113	56	13	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.54	4.48	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	116	491	113	55	13	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.2%	12.0%	2.7%	4.48	4.44	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	483	112	54	14	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.1%	11.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	111	469	108	53	14	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.56	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	106	448	102	52	14	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.63	4.69	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	100	421	94	50	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	93	393	86	48	14	100%	5.8	21.9%	12.2%	9.8%	3.5%	4.95	5.07	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	49	207	47	25	6	100%	5.4	22.6%	12.2%	10.5%	2.9%	4.76	4.70	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	77	325	75	37	9	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	2.9%	4.64	4.58	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	92	388	90	43	11	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.2%	12.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.54	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	98	414	95	46	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	96	47	13	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.67	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	96	405	92	47	13	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.80	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	92	388	87	46	13	100%	6.1	22.4%	11.8%	10.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.99	+0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	87	367	81	45	14	100%	6.2	21.9%	12.2%	9.8%	3.7%	5.08	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	690	2914	662	336	92	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.38	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	192	97	27	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		65	51	262	1118	256	176	9	78%	4.0	22.9%	15.7%	7.2%	0.8%	3.36	3.59	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	852	195	134	7	78%	4.0	22.9%	15.7%	7.2%	0.8%	3.36	3.59	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Allen Facundo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	22.1%	13.5%	2.7%	—	4.51	22.9%	11.3%	347	-0.30	—	—	—
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	86
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	84
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	84
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	82
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	81
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	81
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	80
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	80
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	79
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	79
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	79
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	78
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	78
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	77
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	77
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	77
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	103	22.7%	11.7%	1.13	4.63
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67