Avery Short
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.17
FIP5.17
K%13.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%3.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 0.99 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 1.10 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 15 | 14 | 57 | 279 | 60 | 23 | 6 | 93% | 3.8 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 7.38 | 4.80 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 15 | 14 | 57 | 279 | 60 | 23 | 6 | 93% | 3.8 | 21.5% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 7.38 | 3.57 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 59 | 269 | 71 | 26 | 7 | 74% | 3.1 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 5.04 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 59 | 269 | 71 | 26 | 7 | 74% | 3.1 | 26.4% | 9.7% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 11 | 10 | 45 | 199 | 36 | 17 | 9 | 91% | 4.1 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.40 | 6.60 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 11 | 10 | 45 | 199 | 36 | 17 | 9 | 91% | 4.1 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 5.40 | 5.23 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 24 | 23 | 128 | 528 | 112 | 36 | 10 | 96% | 5.3 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 3.51 | 4.45 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 24 | 23 | 128 | 528 | 112 | 36 | 10 | 96% | 5.3 | 21.2% | 6.8% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 103 | 447 | 75 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 4.73 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 103 | 447 | 75 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 16 | 16 | 73 | 323 | 53 | 22 | 13 | 100% | 4.6 | 13.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.05 | 5.58 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 36 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 138 | 597 | 89 | 49 | 21 | — | — | 14.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 45 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.6% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 46 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.9% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.6% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 15.9% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 84 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 5.00 | 4.63 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 131 | 82 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 5.00 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 100 | 473 | 2073 | 324 | 184 | 75 | 88% | 4.2 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.88 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 42 | 200 | 877 | 137 | 78 | 32 | 88% | 4.2 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Avery Short (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.01 | 15.5% | 5.8% | 210 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2027 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 88 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.47 | 11.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .307 | 4.10 | 14.7% | 6.8% | 342 | -0.37 | 3.80 | 412 | 84 |
| Jordan Fowler L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.30 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 124 | 82 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2029 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.55 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .283 | 3.99 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.56 | 3.78 | 311 | 82 |
| Amilcar Gaxiola L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.91 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .336 | 4.84 | 11.7% | 1.5% | 176 | -0.07 | 4.37 | 321 | 82 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.83 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 273 | 80 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.80 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .327 | 4.56 | 10.7% | 3.9% | 181 | -1.24 | 3.63 | 322 | 80 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.54 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | 4.08 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 45 | -0.46 | 3.65 | 328 | 79 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 79 |
| Kyle Hald L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.17 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 124 | 78 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 78 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .326 | 5.04 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.79 | 4.25 | 227 | 78 |
| Matthew Crownover L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 12.1% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 377 | 77 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.33 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .338 | 4.51 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 674 | 77 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 76 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 76 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 76 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.01 | 14.0% | 10.6% | 5.0% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 163 | 76 |
| Grant Watson L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 180 | 75 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 70 | 14.9% | 9.7% | 1.13 | 5.05 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |