Avery Short

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+ARI	24	23	128	3.51	3.21	21.2%	6.8%	—	K 16.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.20
2025	24	MIX2 levels	22	22	103	4.73	4.75	16.8%	8.3%	—	K 13.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.62
2026	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	98	4.67	5.29	15.4%	7.8%	—	K 12.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 5.96
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	1	1	1	5.66	5.66	11.6%	9.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBARI	4	4	26	5.54	5.55	12.7%	9.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBARI	6	6	35	5.50	5.54	13.2%	9.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMiguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Edgar Osuna (age 29) · Michael O'Connor (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124133vR 141

ERA5.66

FIP5.66

K%11.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	1	7	28	7	0	0	17%	1.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.57	0.99	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	6	1	7	28	7	0	0	17%	1.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.57	1.10	—
2021	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	15	14	57	279	60	23	6	93%	3.8	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	3.0%	7.38	4.65	—
2021	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	15	14	57	279	60	23	6	93%	3.8	21.5%	8.2%	13.3%	2.2%	7.38	3.57	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	59	269	71	26	7	74%	3.1	20.1%	11.4%	8.7%	3.6%	4.73	4.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	59	269	71	26	7	74%	3.1	26.4%	9.7%	16.7%	2.6%	4.73	3.56	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	10	45	199	36	17	9	91%	4.1	13.9%	9.8%	4.1%	5.9%	5.40	6.43	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	11	10	45	199	36	17	9	91%	4.1	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	4.5%	5.40	5.23	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	2.7%	3.51	4.20	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	2.7%	3.51	4.20	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	1.9%	3.51	3.21	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	13.9%	9.2%	4.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.62	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	13.9%	9.2%	4.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.62	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	16.8%	8.3%	8.5%	3.6%	4.73	4.75	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	12.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.2%	4.67	5.96	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	12.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.2%	4.67	5.96	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	15.4%	7.8%	7.6%	4.4%	4.67	5.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	100%	1.0	11.6%	9.4%	2.2%	3.6%	5.66	5.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	68	289	37	27	10	100%	6.2	12.7%	9.3%	3.3%	3.6%	5.54	5.55	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	59	249	33	23	9	100%	5.9	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	3.6%	5.50	5.54	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	53	225	30	21	8	100%	5.9	13.4%	9.5%	4.0%	3.8%	5.54	5.60	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	52	219	33	20	9	100%	5.8	15.3%	8.9%	6.4%	3.9%	5.49	5.48	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	26	110	14	10	4	100%	6.5	12.7%	9.3%	3.3%	3.6%	5.54	5.55	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	35	148	20	14	5	100%	5.8	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	3.6%	5.50	5.54	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	38	160	22	15	6	100%	6.3	13.4%	9.5%	4.0%	3.8%	5.54	5.60	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	41	173	26	15	7	100%	5.9	15.3%	8.9%	6.4%	3.9%	5.49	5.48	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		23	23	139	587	81	54	22	100%	6.0	13.8%	9.3%	4.5%	3.7%	5.52	5.16	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	116	78	32	100%	6.0	13.8%	9.3%	4.5%	3.7%	5.52	5.16	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		121	108	498	2185	336	196	79	89%	4.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.93	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	878	135	79	32	89%	4.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.93	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 87 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.15 (+0.86)K% 15.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.84%	—	×0.810	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.53%	—	×1.100	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	4.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAReno Aces · 11 IPFIP 4.45 → 4.58 (+0.12)K% 12.0% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.00%	—	×0.860	10.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.45 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 98 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.62 (+0.21)K% 17.1% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.14%	—	×0.810	13.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷1.333	×1.200	2.79%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 5 IPFIP 9.20 → 10.56 (+1.36)K% 11.1% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.11%	—	×0.860	9.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	11.11%	÷0.904	×1.100	13.52%

Result: FIP 9.20 → 10.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 128 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.20 (+0.99)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.770	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.150	7.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.875	×1.250	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 45 IPFIP 5.14 → 6.43 (+1.29)K% 18.1% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.09%	—	×0.770	13.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.150	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷0.952	×1.250	5.94%

Result: FIP 5.14 → 6.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 33 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.68 (+0.99)K% 27.5% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.740	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.54%	—	×1.180	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.062	×1.300	2.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 25 IPFIP 4.67 → 6.36 (+1.69)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.66%	—	×0.770	19.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.16%	—	×1.150	16.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷0.848	×1.250	5.22%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 6.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Avery Short (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.66	11.6%	9.4%	3.6%	—	5.56	13.1%	3.7%	181	-0.10	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	91
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	82
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	80
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	79
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	76
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	76
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	75
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2017 · 5.14 FIP	26	SP	5.14	11.5%	10.3%	3.1%	.324	4.61	11.8%	1.8%	91	-0.53	4.58	321	75
Lance Davis L 2001 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	11.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	106	74
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	74
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	73
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	72
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	72
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	71
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	71
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	71
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	70
Ty Culbreth L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	25	SP	4.56	12.3%	7.2%	2.9%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	380	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	61	13.1%	9.3%	1.42	5.55
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*