Avery Short
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.7%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%8.7%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 15 | 14 | 57 | 279 | 60 | 23 | 6 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 7.38 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 19 | 14 | 59 | 269 | 71 | 26 | 7 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 11 | 10 | 45 | 199 | 36 | 17 | 9 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 5.40 | 6.56 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 24 | 23 | 128 | 528 | 112 | 36 | 10 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | 22 | 22 | 103 | 447 | 75 | 37 | 16 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.43 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 76 | 38 | 13 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 109 | 462 | 82 | 41 | 14 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 86 | 40 | 14 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 90 | 41 | 14 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 112 | 474 | 91 | 41 | 14 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 89 | 41 | 14 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 85 | 40 | 14 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 81 | 39 | 14 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 77 | 38 | 14 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 72 | 37 | 13 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.97 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 67 | 36 | 13 | 17.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 62 | 35 | 13 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 63 | 31 | 12 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 5.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 86 | 406 | 1782 | 287 | 163 | 58 | 16.1% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.68 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 42 | 200 | 877 | 141 | 80 | 29 | 16.1% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.68 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Avery Short (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.62 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 333 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 92 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 91 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 90 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 89 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 89 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 88 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 88 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .338 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.40 | 3.76 | 674 | 88 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 12.1% | 8.3% | 3.2% | .298 | 4.42 | 13.5% | 6.2% | 358 | -0.48 | 3.98 | 483 | 87 |
| Matt Tracy L 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 87 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 87 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 86 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .327 | 4.68 | 10.7% | 3.9% | 181 | -0.67 | 3.68 | 322 | 86 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 86 |
| John Gast L 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 85 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 85 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 11 | -0.01 | 3.78 | 295 | 85 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 85 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 85 |
| Kyle Hald L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| Totals | $5M | $18M | +$13M | ||