Avery Short — OGILVIE

Avery Short P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%13.1%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	1	7	28	7	0	0	17%	1.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.57	0.99	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	6	1	7	28	7	0	0	17%	1.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.57	1.10	—
2021	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	15	14	57	279	60	23	6	93%	3.8	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	3.0%	7.38	4.65	—
2021	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	15	14	57	279	60	23	6	93%	3.8	21.5%	8.2%	13.3%	2.2%	7.38	3.57	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	59	269	71	26	7	74%	3.1	20.1%	11.4%	8.7%	3.6%	4.73	4.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	59	269	71	26	7	74%	3.1	26.4%	9.7%	16.7%	2.6%	4.73	3.56	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	10	45	199	36	17	9	91%	4.1	13.9%	9.8%	4.1%	5.9%	5.40	6.43	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	10	45	199	36	17	9	91%	4.1	13.9%	9.8%	4.1%	5.9%	5.40	6.43	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	11	10	45	199	36	17	9	91%	4.1	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	4.5%	5.40	5.23	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	2.7%	3.51	4.20	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	2.7%	3.51	4.20	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	1.9%	3.51	3.21	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	13.9%	9.2%	4.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.62	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	13.9%	9.2%	4.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.62	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	16.8%	8.3%	8.5%	3.6%	4.73	4.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	12.5%	8.4%	4.1%	5.2%	4.67	5.97	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	12.5%	8.4%	4.1%	5.2%	4.67	5.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	ARI	21	21	87	385	61	29	18	100%	4.1	15.8%	7.5%	8.3%	4.7%	4.76	5.28	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	ARI	3	3	11	50	6	5	1	100%	3.8	12.0%	10.0%	2.0%	2.0%	3.97	4.45	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	6	25	3	2	1	100%	6.0	13.1%	9.6%	3.5%	2.9%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	104	460	70	36	20	—	—	15.3%	7.9%	7.4%	4.3%	4.70	5.92	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	116	488	73	46	14	100%	6.1	14.9%	9.3%	5.5%	3.0%	5.06	5.03	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	114	480	74	45	14	100%	6.0	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	3.0%	5.00	5.01	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	110	466	73	44	14	100%	6.1	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	3.1%	5.01	5.05	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	105	445	69	42	14	100%	5.9	15.5%	9.6%	6.0%	3.3%	5.10	5.16	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	99	418	64	41	14	100%	5.8	15.2%	9.8%	5.3%	3.5%	5.24	5.34	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	51	215	32	20	6	100%	6.4	14.9%	9.3%	5.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.94	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	72	304	47	28	9	100%	6.0	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	2.8%	4.91	4.92	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	83	350	55	33	10	100%	5.9	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	2.9%	4.92	4.96	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	86	363	56	35	11	100%	6.1	15.5%	9.6%	6.0%	3.1%	5.00	5.06	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	85	359	54	35	12	100%	6.1	15.2%	9.8%	5.3%	3.3%	5.14	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	377	1593	245	151	48	100%	6.0	15.4%	9.5%	5.9%	3.0%	4.99	4.65	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	130	80	25	100%	6.0	15.4%	9.5%	5.9%	3.0%	4.99	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		121	108	498	2185	336	196	79	89%	4.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.93	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	878	135	79	32	89%	4.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.93	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Avery Short (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	13.1%	9.6%	2.9%	—	5.03	15.3%	6.0%	340	-0.18	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	91
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	86
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	85
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	82
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2016 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP	4.78	11.0%	8.5%	2.8%	.336	4.87	11.7%	1.5%	176	+0.09	4.58	321	81
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	81
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	80
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	78
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	78
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	77
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	76
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	76
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	76
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	76
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	75
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	75
John Anderson L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP-	4.12	11.0%	8.5%	1.6%	.316	4.23	14.3%	5.6%	115	+0.11	4.12	235	75
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	103	15.1%	9.5%	1.21	5.09
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25