Kane Kepley — OGILVIE

Kane KepleyOF South Bend Cubs

Age 22 L/L 5'8" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION379 act + 252 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†103

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .351 / .347

PA252

HR3

SB17

K%20

BB%13

BABIP284

ISO119

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$15M	+$15M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$14M	+$14M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$13M	+$13M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$12M	+$9M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+2.0	$9M	+$6M
2034	Arb-3	$9M	+1.8	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$23M		$72M	+$60M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	109	27	1	2	2	13	23	9	16	4	248	374	349	723	101	298	18	10	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	97	29	1	3	2	25	15	9	16	4	299	481	433	914	134	338	11	19	421	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	CHC	—	379	305	65	14	5	4	54	73	13	41	3	213	355	331	686	118	262	19	14	310	95	-2	+7	+0	-2	+11	1.4
YTD	22	A+	CHC	—	379	283	73	17	6	5	76	54	13	41	3	258	435	413	849	155	297	14	20	383	151	+22	+7	+0	-2	+11	3.8
ROS	22	A+	CHC	0%	252	210	48	10	3	3	33	50	7	17	2	228	351	347	698	119	279	20	13	320	103	+1	+3	+0	-2	+7	0.9
ROS	22	MLB	CHC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						280	0	0	299	87	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	A+	CHC	—	380	306	65	14	5	4	54	73	13	41	3	212	354	330	684	118	261	19	14	310	95	-2	+7	+0	-2	+11	1.4
TOT	22	A+	CHC	—	631	515	113	24	8	7	87	123	20	58	5	219	353	337	691	118	271	19	14	314	98	-1	+10	+0	-4	+18	2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CHC	43%	581	487	111	22	6	9	75	116	14	24	3	228	347	353	700	125	279	20	13	321	104	+2	+4	+0	-3	+16	2.0
2028	24	MLB	CHC	58%	609	512	120	24	6	11	77	121	15	22	2	234	351	369	720	135	281	20	13	325	107	+5	+4	+0	-4	+17	2.3
2029	25	MLB	CHC	65%	627	528	124	25	6	12	79	125	15	20	2	235	350	373	724	138	282	20	13	327	108	+6	+3	+0	-4	+18	2.4
2030	26	MLB	CHC	68%	638	538	127	25	6	13	80	128	15	19	2	236	351	377	728	141	282	20	13	328	109	+6	+3	+0	-4	+18	2.4
2031	27	MLB	CHC	68%	637	537	127	25	6	13	80	128	15	18	2	236	351	378	729	142	282	20	13	328	109	+7	+3	+0	-4	+18	2.4
2032	28	MLB	CHC	68%	629	530	122	24	5	12	80	127	14	17	2	230	346	362	708	132	281	20	13	327	108	+6	+3	-0	-4	+18	2.3
2033	29	MLB	CHC	66%	619	521	121	24	5	12	79	126	14	16	2	232	349	367	715	134	281	20	13	325	107	+5	+2	-1	-4	+18	2.0
2034	30	MLB	CHC	66%	609	512	117	23	5	11	78	126	14	15	2	229	346	357	703	129	279	21	13	322	105	+3	+2	-2	-4	+17	1.8
2035	31	MLB	CHC	65%	598	504	114	22	5	11	76	125	13	14	1	226	342	355	697	129	277	21	13	318	102	+1	+2	-3	-4	+17	1.5
2036	32	MLB	CHC	65%	587	494	110	21	5	10	75	125	13	13	1	223	340	346	686	123	274	21	13	313	98	-2	+2	-3	-4	+17	1.1
2037	33	MLB	CHC	65%	507	427	92	17	4	8	64	111	11	10	1	215	333	330	663	115	270	22	13	306	92	-4	+2	-4	-3	+14	0.5
2038	34	MLB	CHC	60%	428	362	75	14	3	6	54	96	9	8	1	207	325	312	637	105	264	22	13	298	86	-7	+1	-5	-3	+12	-0.1
2039	35	MLB	CHC	56%	362	306	62	11	3	5	45	84	8	7	1	203	320	307	628	105	258	23	12	288	79	-9	+1	-5	-2	+10	-0.5
2027	23	MLB	CHC	43%	252	211	48	10	2	4	33	50	6	10	1	227	348	351	699	123	280	20	13	304	90	-3	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2028	24	MLB	CHC	58%	353	297	69	14	3	6	45	70	8	13	1	232	349	360	709	128	282	20	13	309	94	-2	+2	+0	-2	+10	0.8
2029	25	MLB	CHC	65%	407	344	81	16	4	8	51	81	9	13	1	235	349	375	724	140	283	20	13	311	96	-2	+2	+0	-2	+12	1.0
2030	26	MLB	CHC	68%	434	367	87	17	4	9	54	87	10	13	1	237	350	379	729	142	283	20	12	312	97	-1	+2	+0	-3	+12	1.1
2031	27	MLB	CHC	68%	433	365	86	17	4	9	55	87	10	12	1	236	351	378	729	142	283	20	13	312	97	-1	+2	+0	-3	+12	1.1
2032	28	MLB	CHC	68%	428	361	84	17	4	8	54	86	10	11	1	233	348	368	717	136	283	20	13	311	96	-2	+2	-0	-3	+12	0.9
2033	29	MLB	CHC	66%	411	347	80	16	3	8	52	84	9	10	1	231	346	363	709	133	282	20	13	309	95	-2	+2	-1	-2	+12	0.8
2034	30	MLB	CHC	66%	399	336	76	15	3	7	51	82	9	10	1	226	343	351	695	125	281	21	13	307	93	-3	+2	-1	-2	+11	0.6
2035	31	MLB	CHC	65%	389	327	75	15	3	7	50	82	9	9	1	229	347	358	705	128	278	21	13	303	90	-4	+1	-2	-2	+11	0.4
2036	32	MLB	CHC	65%	380	321	71	14	3	6	48	81	8	8	1	221	337	340	676	118	275	21	13	298	86	-6	+1	-2	-2	+11	0.2
2037	33	MLB	CHC	65%	327	275	60	11	3	5	42	72	7	7	1	218	336	335	671	116	271	22	13	291	81	-7	+1	-3	-2	+9	-0.1
2038	34	MLB	CHC	60%	257	217	46	8	2	4	32	58	6	5	1	212	329	323	652	111	265	23	12	283	75	-7	+1	-3	-2	+7	-0.4
2039	35	MLB	CHC	56%	201	170	35	6	2	3	25	47	4	4	0	206	322	318	639	112	259	23	12	274	68	-7	+1	-3	-1	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4672	3939	898	176	40	84	592	967	105	125	12	228	344	357	701	129	280	21	13	304	91	-49	+20	-14	-28	+132	6.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	548	125	24	6	12	82	135	15	17	2	228	344	359	704	131	280	21	13	304	91	-7	+3	-2	-4	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	7814	6577	1497	288	70	138	988	1611	186	236	28	228	345	356	700	128	279	21	13	319	102	+22	+36	-22	-47	+221	21.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	547	124	24	6	11	82	134	15	20	2	227	343	353	695	126	279	21	13	319	102	+2	+3	-2	-4	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	97	29	1	3	2	25	15	9	16	4	299	481	433	914	134	338	11	19	421	180	+12	+2	—	—	+4	1.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brett Gardnerlast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,577 PA	13	6,577	139	272	256	341	398	-41	+49	29.8	26.6
	/162	664	14	27	256	341	398	-4.2	+4.9	3.0	pk7: 23
#2Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	14	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
	/162	664	17	10	257	338	410	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,672	83	125	228	341	356	-28	+33	13.0	11.5
	/162	664	12	18	228	341	356	-4.0	+4.6	1.8	pk7: 10
#4Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
	/162	664	12	20	254	307	380	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kane Kepley (OGILVIE)	22	40→57	30→34	67→62	60	219/353/337	118	271	7	58	19%	14%	98	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	229/304/337	108	264	10	17	17%	8%	82	+0.5	248/300/333	85	280	5	13	13%	6%	77	+0.1	266/326/350	84	306	4	14	13%	8%	90	+0.8
●Cal Stevenson 2019 · A	22	57→58	39→45	59→60	63	265/358/366	102	307	4	16	14%	13%	111	+2.5	229/304/322	93	288	8	13	21%	10%	77	+0.1	242/335/362	120	310	11	30	23%	12%	99	+1.0
✕Carlos Mendoza 2022 · A	22	53→56	37→40	56→55	57	245/341/322	77	298	3	18	17%	11%	94	+1.3	235/338/307	72	307	3	14	22%	12%	89	+0.9	245/334/339	93	298	8	19	19%	9%	92	+0.8
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→59	40→45	56→55	48	247/307/344	98	310	7	17	22%	8%	84	+0.6	263/324/374	111	306	8	19	16%	8%	98	+1.6	266/334/365	99	304	8	20	14%	8%	99	+1.4
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
●Tyler Black 2023 · A	23	46→54	41→50	50→60	55	216/317/322	106	289	7	14	26%	12%	84	+0.6	241/332/395	154	315	14	30	26%	10%	108	+2.3	242/335/399	157	317	14	35	26%	10%	107	+1.7
●Tony Kemp 2015 · AA	23	56→61	41→45	56→55	53	266/338/376	110	311	7	22	16%	8%	105	+2.1	269/328/358	89	315	5	22	15%	7%	95	+1.4	277/332/373	97	313	7	21	13%	7%	98	+1.3
✕Logan Vick 2014 · A	23	48	41→45	52→50	56	225/323/333	108	304	7	15	26%	12%	89	+0.9	193/286/291	98	295	7	13	33%	11%	63	-0.8	143/250/225	82	230	6	13	36%	12%	30	-2.1
●Grégor Blanco 2006 · AA	22	49→59	42→45	58→60	47	225/301/338	112	336	8	22	33%	10%	79	+0.3	253/330/329	76	335	3	21	22%	10%	89	+1.0	276/352/384	108	333	6	19	17%	10%	106	+1.6
✕Nolan Fontana 2013 · A	22	47→43	40	53→50	63	217/344/317	100	295	6	15	25%	15%	95	+1.4	207/315/301	94	308	5	11	30%	13%	78	+0.2	201/309/291	90	299	4	9	30%	13%	71	-0.2
●Alejandro De Aza 2006 · A	22	53→61	38→50	53→55	47	245/308/336	91	317	4	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	241/294/333	92	310	5	23	22%	6%	75	-0.0	273/334/406	134	330	12	24	20%	7%	107	+2.3
✕Michael Gigliotti 2018 · A	22	53	40	51→55	50	252/319/352	100	313	7	17	21%	8%	91	+1.1	234/297/320	86	306	5	20	23%	7%	74	-0.1	194/304/312	118	265	11	24	28%	11%	75	+0.0
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	77	+0.1	207/263/300	93	289	6	12	28%	6%	54	-1.4	195/251/293	97	271	6	13	28%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Noah Mendlinger 2023 · A	22	48→58	37→40	47→45	55	224/318/299	75	276	4	9	19%	10%	79	+0.3	257/340/332	75	308	3	8	16%	8%	95	+1.4	272/355/343	71	323	2	8	15%	8%	101	+1.3
✕Tsung-Che Cheng 2023 · A	22	47	42→45	57→55	50	224/306/337	113	303	7	21	27%	10%	82	+0.5	210/274/324	114	288	10	18	29%	8%	65	-0.7	193/262/293	100	274	11	19	32%	8%	49	-1.2
✕Victor Scott II 2023 · A	22	44→53	44→40	58→65	50	212/296/342	129	289	10	19	28%	10%	79	+0.3	222/282/318	96	284	8	44	23%	6%	66	-0.6	217/280/304	88	276	7	49	23%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Dan Robinson 2019 · A	22	52	38→40	51→50	51	243/305/334	91	287	4	10	16%	8%	80	+0.4	215/282/292	77	281	4	7	23%	8%	59	-1.1	197/270/264	67	260	2	5	23%	9%	44	-1.3
●TJ Friedl 2019 · AA	23	49→54	39→50	53→55	46	230/299/323	93	298	6	17	23%	7%	76	+0.0	222/297/331	109	281	9	17	23%	7%	77	+0.1	248/339/390	142	278	16	18	16%	10%	108	+2.0
●Desmond Jennings 2009 · A	22	51→59	43→50	56→60	48	246/309/361	115	293	10	25	19%	7%	89	+1.0	255/321/384	129	302	10	34	18%	8%	100	+1.7	245/325/405	160	290	16	28	20%	9%	105	+2.2
✕Alden Carrithers 2009 · A	24	50→60	39→40	56→55	54	236/326/326	90	294	6	18	20%	10%	89	+0.9	258/332/324	66	312	3	15	16%	9%	89	+1.0	276/348/336	60	322	1	17	13%	9%	96	+0.9