Kane Kepley

CF South Bend Cubs

Age 23 L/L 5'8" / 180 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP50OGV rank#29ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ACHC	131	.299/.481/.433	2	16	113	—	.255/.397/.358
2026	22	AA/A+CHC	595	.243/.426/.401	10	70	97	—	.211/.356/.340
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCHC	1	.238/.370/.371	0	0	113	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBCHC	220	.241/.370/.382	4	10	115	1.2
2029PROJ62% MLB	25	MLBCHC	343	.243/.369/.387	6	13	116	2.0

Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$7M2033Arb-2$11M2034Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%99

Whiff%99

Speed99

BB%93

Z-Con%93

K%91

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 68%

CompsTyler Black (age 24) · Tony Kemp (age 23) · Jakob Marsee (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .370 / .371

PA1

HR0

K%18

BB%14

BABIP286

ISO134

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$76M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$14M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$15M	+$15M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$14M	+$14M
2032	Arb-1	$7M	+2.2	$12M	+$8M
2033	Arb-2	$11M	+1.9	$10M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+1.6	$8M	+$1M
Totals		$34M		$72M	+$54M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	97	29	1	3	2	25	15	9	16	4	299	481	433	914	134	338	11	19	421	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	144	113	24	4	2	3	24	23	7	20	1	212	382	363	745	150	241	16	17	348	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	451	331	84	18	7	7	96	66	15	50	5	254	440	414	854	160	292	15	21	386	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	106	27	1	2	2	16	21	9	16	4	255	397	358	755	104	296	16	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	144	120	23	4	2	3	17	28	7	20	1	192	326	333	660	142	218	19	12	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	451	359	78	15	6	6	69	84	15	50	5	217	366	343	708	125	254	19	15	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	106	27	1	2	2	16	21	9	16	4	255	397	358	755	104	301	16	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	97	29	1	3	2	25	15	9	16	4	299	481	433	914	134	338	11	19	421	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	595	479	101	19	8	9	86	112	22	70	6	211	356	340	696	129	253	19	14	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	595	444	108	22	9	10	120	89	22	70	6	243	426	401	827	158	279	15	20	377	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	105	27	1	2	2	16	21	9	16	4	257	397	362	759	105	296	16	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	595	482	101	19	8	9	86	112	22	70	6	210	356	338	694	129	245	19	14	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	105	27	1	2	2	16	21	9	16	4	257	397	362	759	105	296	16	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	595	482	101	19	8	9	86	112	22	70	6	210	356	338	694	129	245	19	14	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	567	465	109	21	7	8	80	103	17	30	3	235	367	363	730	129	281	18	14	335	113	+9	+5	+2	+2	+12	1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CHC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	238	370	371	741	133	286	0	0	339	113	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CHC	42%	517	425	101	19	6	9	72	94	15	23	2	238	367	375	742	137	283	18	14	339	115	+9	+4	+3	+2	+11	2.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	CHC	62%	552	455	108	20	6	10	76	101	16	21	2	240	366	381	747	141	283	18	14	340	116	+11	+3	+4	+2	+12	3.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CHC	71%	578	479	116	22	7	11	78	107	16	20	2	240	364	382	746	143	284	19	13	339	116	+11	+3	+4	+2	+13	3.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	CHC	74%	597	497	119	22	7	12	79	113	16	19	2	239	361	381	742	142	284	19	13	337	114	+10	+3	+4	+2	+13	3.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	CHC	75%	590	493	117	22	6	12	77	114	15	16	2	237	357	378	734	140	283	19	13	334	112	+8	+2	+3	+2	+13	2.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	CHC	74%	578	484	114	21	6	11	75	113	14	14	1	235	354	371	725	136	282	20	13	330	110	+7	+2	+2	+2	+13	2.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	CHC	73%	562	471	109	20	6	10	72	112	14	12	1	232	350	362	713	131	280	20	13	326	106	+4	+2	+2	+2	+12	2.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	550	462	104	19	5	9	70	111	13	9	1	227	346	352	697	125	277	20	13	320	102	+2	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	536	450	100	18	5	8	68	111	13	8	1	222	339	339	678	117	273	21	13	312	97	-2	+1	-0	+2	+12	1.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	438	370	79	14	4	6	55	93	10	6	1	215	332	323	655	108	268	21	13	303	91	-5	+1	-1	+2	+9	0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	CHC	42%	220	181	44	8	3	4	31	40	6	10	1	241	370	382	752	141	288	18	14	342	115	+4	+2	+1	+1	+5	1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CHC	62%	343	283	69	13	5	6	47	63	10	13	1	243	369	387	756	145	288	18	14	343	116	+7	+2	+2	+1	+7	2.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CHC	71%	412	343	83	16	5	8	55	76	11	14	1	243	367	389	755	146	288	18	13	342	116	+8	+2	+3	+1	+9	2.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CHC	74%	439	366	89	17	6	8	58	83	12	14	1	242	363	387	750	145	288	19	13	340	114	+7	+2	+3	+2	+10	2.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	CHC	75%	441	370	88	17	5	8	57	85	11	12	1	240	359	383	742	143	288	19	13	337	112	+6	+2	+2	+2	+10	2.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CHC	74%	425	356	85	16	5	8	55	83	11	10	1	238	356	376	733	139	286	20	13	333	110	+5	+2	+2	+2	+9	1.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	CHC	73%	409	343	80	15	5	7	53	81	10	9	1	234	353	368	721	134	284	20	13	328	106	+3	+1	+1	+1	+9	1.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	398	334	76	14	4	6	51	81	10	7	1	230	348	357	705	127	281	20	13	322	102	+1	+1	+1	+1	+9	1.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	387	326	73	13	4	6	49	80	9	6	1	224	342	344	686	120	277	21	13	315	97	-1	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.9
2037	33	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	315	266	57	10	3	4	39	67	7	4	1	218	334	329	663	111	272	21	12	306	91	-3	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3789	3168	744	139	45	65	495	739	97	99	10	235	355	369	724	134	285	20	13	331	108	+37	+16	+13	+14	+82	16.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	543	128	24	8	11	85	127	17	17	2	236	357	370	727	134	287	20	13	331	108	+6	+3	+2	+2	+14	2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6434	5343	1236	225	71	112	854	1240	179	245	26	231	356	363	719	132	279	19	13	327	108	+59	+25	+21	+20	+124	25.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	540	125	23	7	11	86	125	18	25	3	231	356	361	717	130	279	19	13	327	108	+7	+3	+2	+2	+14	2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 451 PAwOBA .383 → .320 (−62)K% 14.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.63%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.29%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	15.29%
HBP% /PA	3.33%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	2.66%
Singles /BIP	19.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.972	×1.012	17.76%
Doubles /BIP	6.79%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.972	×1.012	5.41%
Triples /BIP	2.64%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.972	×1.012	2.21%
Home runs /BIP	2.64%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.14%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .383 → .320; ISO .160 → .140; BABIP .292 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 144 PAwOBA .340 → .287 (−53)K% 16.0% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.97%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	11.81%
HBP% /PA	4.86%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	4.25%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.955	×1.042	15.26%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.955	×1.042	4.03%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.955	×1.042	1.95%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.78%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .340 → .287; ISO .150 → .133; BABIP .241 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 131 PAwOBA .412 → .335 (−77)K% 11.5% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.45%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.08%	÷1.106	×0.690	—	×1.015	12.09%
HBP% /PA	6.87%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	5.44%
Singles /BIP	28.05%	÷0.990	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	25.15%
Doubles /BIP	1.22%	÷0.968	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	1.01%
Triples /BIP	3.66%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	2.79%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷0.925	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .412 → .335; ISO .134 → .116; BABIP .338 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eddie Milner'80-'88 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,718 PA	4.1	2,718	42	145	250*	331*	403*	+4	+50	13.7	13.9
/162	664	10	35	+1.0	+12.1	3.3	pk7: 14
#2Gary Pettis'82-'92 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,237 PA	6.4	4,237	21	354	234*	332*	326*	+14	+45	14.6	13.8
/162	664	3	55	+2.2	+7.1	2.3	pk7: 13
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.7	3,789	68	98	234	351	367	-23	+31	13.0	12.1
/162	664	12	17	-4.0	+5.5	2.3	pk7: 11
#4Andres Torreslast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,136 PA	3.2	2,136	32	75	243	319	383	+0	+45	10.3	10.3
/162	664	10	23	+0.0	+14.0	3.2	pk7: 10
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#6Rich Becker'93-'00 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,620 PA	3.9	2,620	45	66	242*	340*	358*	-5	+15	7.5	7.9
/162	664	11	17	-1.3	+3.9	1.9	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kane Kepley (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	232/364/360	128	281	3	11	18%	14%	113	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Black 2024 · AAA	24	51→53	48→50	63→60	54	248/344/409	162	313	13	33	23%	11%	115	+2.4	235/325/365	130	309	11	28	25%	10%	98	+1.2	225/318/339	114	302	9	27	26%	10%	86	+0.2
●Tony Kemp 2015 · AA	23	56→62	41→45	56→55	53	266/339/372	106	308	7	22	15%	8%	104	+1.6	273/332/362	89	318	5	22	15%	7%	99	+1.2	277/334/377	99	313	7	21	13%	7%	100	+1.1
●Jakob Marsee 2024 · AA	23	47→49	47→45	58→60	58	234/337/363	130	285	15	28	22%	12%	103	+1.5	219/318/347	128	277	12	34	24%	11%	92	+0.7	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	52→60	42→50	56→60	48	250/310/350	100	316	9	23	23%	8%	88	+0.4	250/312/358	108	309	10	31	21%	8%	91	+0.7	269/346/409	140	334	13	28	22%	10%	116	+2.7
●Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	57→61	45→50	63→60	52	274/336/411	137	313	10	34	16%	8%	112	+2.2	254/323/391	137	305	11	33	19%	8%	103	+1.5	246/325/404	158	293	16	28	21%	9%	107	+1.9
●Rafael Furcal 2001 · MLB	23	59→63	40→50	58→60	63	278/373/375	97	324	6	37	15%	13%	117	+2.6	274/335/387	113	316	8	28	15%	8%	105	+1.7	282/347/421	139	308	12	33	12%	9%	119	+3.1
●CJ Abrams 2024 · MLB	23	50→53	47→60	62→60	43	250/298/393	143	290	14	34	19%	4%	94	+0.9	251/312/436	185	291	20	30	21%	6%	109	+2.0	252/319/452	200	292	23	30	22%	7%	117	+2.7
✕Jace Peterson 2014 · A	24	54→57	40→50	62→55	52	257/321/361	103	302	5	29	16%	8%	95	+0.9	243/312/343	100	299	6	18	19%	9%	87	+0.4	239/315/386	147	295	14	19	23%	9%	98	+0.8
✕Austin Martin 2023 · AA	24	50→55	38→40	57→60	52	230/333/311	81	290	5	25	20%	9%	90	+0.6	242/331/329	87	297	6	24	19%	10%	92	+0.7	256/352/337	81	314	4	22	17%	11%	102	+0.9
✕Ben Revere 2011 · MLB	23	62→64	36→40	58→65	49	290/339/356	66	326	2	32	12%	6%	99	+1.3	280/319/332	52	313	1	36	10%	5%	86	+0.3	300/329/359	59	330	1	38	9%	4%	96	+0.9
✕Garin Cecchini 2014 · AA	23	59→65	41→45	56→55	52	277/349/390	113	352	6	21	22%	9%	112	+2.2	237/296/331	94	310	7	13	24%	7%	79	-0.2	221/273/302	81	286	7	12	24%	6%	61	-1.2
●Alejandro De Aza 2007 · AA	23	55→61	38→50	55	47	255/314/345	90	325	4	29	22%	7%	88	+0.4	241/294/351	110	305	7	18	22%	6%	82	+0.0	273/332/409	136	330	12	24	20%	7%	110	+2.1
★Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 · AA	23	57→67	41→55	57→65	48	271/324/376	105	309	8	28	15%	6%	99	+1.3	291/341/399	108	330	7	42	13%	6%	110	+2.1	290/344/451	161	317	16	37	14%	7%	125	+3.0
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	52→58	41→45	57→60	48	250/309/356	106	315	8	27	22%	8%	88	+0.5	254/311/364	110	310	8	26	19%	8%	92	+0.7	260/322/390	130	293	10	24	14%	8%	102	+1.4
●Chris Coghlan 2009 · AA	24	53→63	43→50	55	52	257/324/382	125	293	9	21	16%	8%	101	+1.4	280/344/409	129	326	9	16	16%	8%	114	+2.4	283/349/415	132	329	9	14	16%	8%	118	+2.2
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2014 · AAA	23	54→59	39→40	60→55	47	252/309/349	97	323	5	27	22%	7%	87	+0.4	213/271/293	80	303	6	20	29%	7%	61	-1.5	201/259/269	69	292	5	20	31%	7%	48	-1.2
●Adam Eaton 2012 · AA	23	57→67	43→50	54→55	51	274/357/393	120	331	9	21	19%	8%	116	+2.5	286/356/395	109	342	6	23	17%	8%	116	+2.5	285/356/413	128	338	9	15	17%	8%	120	+3.0
●Mallex Smith 2016 · AAA	23	58→64	38→45	65	48	271/330/358	88	346	4	46	22%	8%	97	+1.1	265/325/369	104	340	5	40	22%	8%	97	+1.1	268/334/376	108	341	5	43	21%	8%	102	+1.1
●Xavier Edwards 2024 · MLB	24	58→68	39→40	56→60	52	278/333/360	82	319	6	25	15%	8%	99	+1.2	292/351/382	90	341	5	30	14%	8%	110	+2.1	293/359/382	88	343	4	31	14%	9%	113	+2.1
✕Kyle Wren 2014 · A	23	55→62	41→40	62→60	46	265/304/372	107	306	6	32	16%	5%	90	+0.6	257/302/323	66	318	2	30	18%	6%	78	-0.3	254/314/331	77	325	3	25	21%	8%	82	-0.0

Kane Kepley

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps