Kane Kepley — OGILVIE

Kane KepleyCF South Bend Cubs

Age 22 L/L 5'8" / 180 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION591 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†107

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP271

ISO125

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$90M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$14M	+$13M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$13M	+$12M
2032	Arb-1	$7M	+2.1	$11M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$10M	+1.9	$9M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$14M	+1.7	$7M	+$1M
Totals		$34M		$67M	+$50M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	97	29	1	3	2	25	15	9	16	4	299	481	433	914	134	338	11	19	421	171	+11	+2	—	—	+3	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	108	27	1	2	2	14	22	9	16	4	250	382	352	734	102	294	17	11	330	109	+1	+2	—	—	+3	0.6
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	108	27	1	2	2	14	22	9	16	4	250	382	352	734	102	298	17	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	97	29	1	3	2	25	15	9	16	4	299	481	433	914	134	338	11	19	421	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	107	27	1	2	2	14	22	9	16	4	252	382	355	737	103	294	17	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	131	107	27	1	2	2	14	22	9	16	4	252	382	355	737	103	294	17	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	CHC	—	591	476	98	19	8	9	85	116	22	70	6	206	352	336	688	130	249	20	14	306	93	-5	+12	+0	+2	+13	2.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CHC	—	451	331	84	18	7	7	96	66	15	50	5	254	440	414	854	160	292	15	21	386	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	CHC	—	140	109	23	4	2	3	24	22	7	20	1	211	386	367	753	156	238	16	17	351	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	CHC	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	125	222	125	347		267	22	11	327	107	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
TOT	22	A+ MLE	CHC	—	600	484	99	19	8	9	86	118	22	71	6	205	350	333	682	128	248	20	14	306	93	-5	+12	+0	+2	+13	2.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CHC	49%	581	479	107	19	7	10	80	110	17	32	3	223	354	355	709	132	267	19	14	325	106	+4	+5	+1	+2	+13	2.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	CHC	65%	609	505	115	21	7	12	82	115	17	28	3	228	354	368	723	141	270	19	13	329	109	+7	+4	+1	+2	+13	2.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	CHC	73%	627	521	120	22	7	13	84	119	17	25	2	230	355	374	730	144	271	19	13	331	110	+8	+4	+2	+2	+14	3.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	CHC	76%	638	531	122	22	7	13	85	121	17	22	2	230	354	371	725	141	272	19	13	332	111	+8	+4	+2	+2	+14	3.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	CHC	76%	637	529	121	22	7	13	86	122	17	21	2	229	354	371	725	142	272	19	14	332	111	+8	+3	+2	+2	+14	3.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	CHC	76%	629	522	120	22	7	13	85	121	17	18	2	230	356	374	729	144	271	19	14	331	110	+8	+3	+1	+2	+14	2.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	CHC	74%	619	513	118	21	7	13	84	120	17	17	2	230	357	374	731	144	270	19	14	330	109	+7	+3	+0	+2	+13	2.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	CHC	73%	609	505	113	20	6	12	83	120	16	15	2	224	351	358	709	135	269	20	14	327	107	+5	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	CHC	73%	598	496	110	20	6	11	81	120	16	14	1	222	349	353	702	131	267	20	14	323	105	+3	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	587	486	106	18	6	11	80	120	16	13	1	218	347	348	695	130	264	20	14	317	101	+1	+2	-2	+2	+13	1.6
2037	33	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	507	420	90	15	5	9	69	106	13	10	1	214	343	338	681	124	260	21	14	311	97	-2	+2	-3	+2	+11	1.0
2038	34	MLB MLE	CHC	68%	428	356	73	12	4	7	58	92	11	8	1	205	334	320	654	115	254	21	14	303	91	-5	+1	-4	+2	+9	0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	CHC	49%	282	233	52	10	4	4	39	54	8	15	2	223	354	352	706	129	271	19	14	305	106	+2	+2	+1	+1	+6	1.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CHC	65%	395	328	75	14	5	7	53	75	11	18	2	229	355	366	720	137	273	19	13	310	109	+4	+3	+1	+1	+9	1.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	CHC	73%	455	378	88	16	6	9	61	86	13	18	2	233	358	378	737	146	275	19	13	313	110	+6	+3	+1	+2	+10	2.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CHC	76%	486	405	94	17	6	10	65	93	13	17	2	232	356	378	734	146	275	19	13	314	111	+6	+3	+1	+2	+11	2.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CHC	76%	485	404	94	17	6	10	65	93	13	16	2	233	357	379	736	146	275	19	13	314	111	+6	+2	+1	+2	+11	2.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CHC	76%	478	397	92	17	6	10	65	92	13	14	1	232	358	380	738	149	274	19	14	313	110	+6	+2	+1	+2	+10	2.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CHC	74%	460	381	88	16	6	9	63	89	13	12	1	231	359	375	734	144	273	19	14	311	109	+5	+2	+0	+2	+10	1.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	CHC	73%	446	370	83	15	5	8	61	88	12	11	1	224	352	357	709	132	272	20	14	309	107	+4	+2	-0	+2	+10	1.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	CHC	73%	435	361	80	14	5	8	59	87	12	10	1	222	350	355	704	133	270	20	14	305	105	+2	+2	-1	+2	+9	1.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	424	352	76	13	5	7	58	87	11	9	1	216	344	341	685	125	267	21	14	300	101	+1	+1	-1	+2	+9	1.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	366	304	65	11	4	6	49	77	10	7	1	214	342	336	677	122	263	21	13	293	97	-1	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.7
2038	34	MLB CTX	CHC	68%	289	240	49	8	3	4	39	62	8	5	1	204	334	312	647	108	257	21	13	285	91	-3	+1	-3	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5001	4153	936	168	61	92	677	983	137	152	17	225	352	362	714	136	272	20	14	307	106	+38	+24	-2	+18	+108	19.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	540	122	22	8	12	88	128	18	20	2	226	353	363	716	137	273	20	14	307	106	+5	+3	-0	+2	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	7209	5979	1343	235	78	139	972	1410	200	240	26	225	352	360	711	135	270	20	13	325	106	+53	+36	-2	+25	+153	27.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	539	121	21	7	13	88	127	18	22	2	224	352	362	714	137	269	20	14	325	106	+5	+3	-0	+2	+14	2.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brett Gardnerlast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,577 PA	9.9	6,577	139	272	256	341	398	-41	+49	29.8	26.6
/162	664	14	27	-4.2	+4.9	3.0	pk7: 23
#2Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	10.9	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
/162	664	17	10	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#3B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#4Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	7.5	5,002	97	153	225	348	361	-30	+36	16.6	14.6
/162	664	13	20	-4.0	+4.8	2.2	pk7: 13
#5Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kane Kepley (OGILVIE)	22	46→57	30→34	64→62	61	219/356/345	126	267	3	19	19%	14%	107	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cal Stevenson 2019 · A	22	57	39→45	59→60	63	265/358/366	102	307	4	16	14%	13%	109	+2.0	234/308/325	91	293	7	13	21%	10%	82	-0.0	239/332/352	113	308	9	30	23%	12%	96	+0.6
✕Carlos Mendoza 2022 · A	22	54→55	37→40	56→55	57	248/344/324	76	301	3	18	17%	11%	96	+1.0	237/340/308	71	308	3	14	21%	12%	91	+0.7	242/332/330	88	296	7	18	19%	9%	90	+0.5
✕Ben Revere 2010 · A	22	61→64	36→40	59→65	49	289/334/363	74	321	2	31	11%	5%	99	+1.3	275/318/329	54	309	2	34	11%	5%	85	+0.2	300/329/358	58	330	1	38	9%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Tyson Gillies 2010 · A	21	58→64	42→45	57→55	47	278/340/388	110	339	8	25	20%	6%	107	+1.9	258/314/362	104	327	7	17	22%	5%	92	+0.7	236/280/341	106	311	7	15	25%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Ricardo Ferreira 2016 · A	21	58	36→40	61→60	54	261/352/335	74	357	2	25	25%	11%	101	+1.4	227/287/304	77	339	4	19	31%	7%	69	-0.9	220/260/294	73	312	6	25	30%	5%	53	-0.7
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	59→65	52	232/323/340	107	283	6	29	19%	9%	92	+0.7	232/310/353	121	294	11	18	23%	8%	90	+0.6	226/310/337	111	288	7	11	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Garin Cecchini 2014 · AA	23	58→63	41→45	56→55	51	270/342/381	111	342	6	21	22%	9%	107	+1.8	229/286/316	87	300	6	13	24%	7%	72	-0.7	211/261/284	74	274	6	12	24%	5%	53	-1.7
✕Jace Peterson 2014 · A	24	54→57	40→50	62→55	52	258/322/361	103	302	5	29	16%	8%	95	+0.9	243/314/343	100	299	6	18	19%	9%	88	+0.4	238/316/380	142	295	14	19	23%	10%	95	+0.6
✕Vidal Bruján 2019 · A	21	55→59	42→45	57→65	50	261/321/373	112	305	8	27	17%	8%	97	+1.1	237/293/341	104	286	8	37	19%	7%	80	-0.2	224/301/331	107	277	8	25	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	55→59	44→50	63→60	51	268/330/399	131	306	10	34	16%	8%	107	+1.8	247/316/376	129	297	10	33	19%	8%	97	+1.1	243/323/397	154	290	15	28	21%	9%	102	+1.5
●Adam Eaton 2012 · AA	23	58→67	43→50	54→55	51	274/358/394	119	332	9	21	19%	8%	117	+2.6	282/351/390	108	337	6	23	17%	8%	113	+2.3	285/358/414	128	339	9	15	17%	8%	117	+2.8
✕Alexi Amarista 2010 · A	21	56→60	40→45	53→55	49	266/318/375	109	307	5	20	15%	6%	96	+1.0	250/287/350	100	290	5	17	15%	5%	79	-0.2	246/280/345	100	281	5	17	14%	4%	73	-0.5
●Sal Frelick 2023 · AAA	23	57→60	43→40	54→55	49	275/329/393	118	316	9	19	16%	6%	105	+1.7	260/324/360	100	301	7	19	15%	8%	96	+1.0	262/330/356	94	300	7	20	14%	8%	95	+0.8
★Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 · AA	23	56→66	41→55	57→65	48	267/320/371	104	303	8	28	15%	6%	96	+1.0	287/337/393	106	326	7	42	13%	6%	107	+1.9	295/350/460	166	323	16	37	14%	7%	125	+3.0
✕Corey Rosier 2022 · A	22	56→52	46→40	57→60	49	271/332/410	139	331	12	19	21%	8%	109	+2.0	223/288/328	105	300	8	33	26%	8%	75	-0.5	208/271/300	92	276	7	36	26%	7%	60	-1.0
✕Leo Heras 2012 · AAA	22	58→66	42→50	54→55	48	282/323/394	111	310	9	18	12%	5%	102	+1.5	253/312/390	137	299	13	18	19%	7%	98	+1.2	242/317/373	131	314	11	18	24%	9%	94	+0.5
●Erick Aybar 2006 · AA	22	55→64	42→45	58→60	45	264/304/382	118	287	8	32	12%	4%	93	+0.8	251/288/350	99	283	7	26	13%	4%	79	-0.2	274/312/398	124	298	8	21	11%	4%	97	+1.1
✕Nolan Fontana 2013 · A	22	47→43	40	53→50	63	214/343/314	99	296	6	15	26%	16%	95	+0.9	213/321/311	98	309	6	11	29%	13%	84	+0.2	207/315/300	93	301	5	9	29%	13%	78	-0.2
●Vaughn Grissom 2023 · MLB	22	56→62	47→45	54→55	47	275/338/409	134	321	14	19	19%	6%	113	+2.3	257/321/374	117	310	10	15	19%	7%	98	+1.2	248/314/358	110	302	9	13	20%	7%	89	+0.4
●Matt Duffy 2014 · A	23	51→61	44→45	53→50	50	251/310/372	122	289	12	16	18%	8%	93	+0.8	277/324/389	112	329	9	15	18%	6%	102	+1.5	283/337/387	104	329	9	12	16%	7%	104	+1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps