Samuel Basallo

C Baltimore Orioles
Age 22 L/R 6'4" / 250 lbs MLB HR +9% Svc 1.250 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2036
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419AAA/AA2 orgs532.278/.343/.449191084—.250/.300/.368
202520AAABAL321.270/.381/.589230114—.232/.311/.474
202520MLBBAL118.165/.229/.33040530.4
202621MLBBAL399.222/.293/.406180891.0
2027PROJ22MLBBAL432.232/.301/.4312021001.3
2028PROJ98% MLB23MLBBAL436.237/.307/.4502221061.7
2029PROJ98% MLB24MLBBAL436.240/.311/.4622321101.9
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 5.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service1.250First FA2036Options2
2027Ext$8M2028Ext$8M2029Ext$8M2030Ext$8M2031Ext$8M2032Ext$8M2033Ext$8M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026
Bat Spd87
Barrel%71
Avg EV64
xwOBA51
Speed10
Form.222/.292/.386 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .227/.295/.418
CompsMark Vientos (age 22) · Mike Moustakas (age 22) · MJ Melendez (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 87100vR 104
AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .301 / .431
PA432
HR20
K%25
BB%8
BABIP262
ISO197
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-0BATRUN: -1.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: -3.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-4FLDPOS: +7.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+8POSREP: +9.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +1.70+1.7WAR
0.01.22.51.71.71.92.02.02.01.81.627282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$51M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
230.229
POWER
Barrel%
7111.4
Avg EV
6490.1
Bat Spd
8775.2
SPEED
Sprint
1024.7
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%23%▲22% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 24%
BB%8%·8% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 8%
ISO.164▼.078 over 51 AB (60d) · proj .192
HR/BB5.6%▼2.6% over 39 BBE (60d) · proj 6.7%
BABIP.255·.184 over 38 BIP (60d) · proj .258
SLASH.222/.292/.386▼proj .227/.295/.418
Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 180 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
25
155
—
wRC+
67
78
▶R
wOBA
267
284
▶R
ISO
143
197
▶▶R
BABIP
133
217
▶▶R
K%
20.0%
25.2%
◀◀L
BB%
12.0%
5.8%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   1.250 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$8M+1.7$14M+$5M
2028Ext$8M+1.7$13M+$5M
2029Ext$8M+1.9$13M+$6M
2030Ext$8M+2.0$13M+$7M
2031Ext$8M+2.0$12M+$6M
2032Ext$8M+2.0$11M+$6M
2033Ext$8M+1.8$9M+$5M
Totals $59M $84M +$40M
Options · projected decision
2034CLUB OPT$8.4M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
2035CLUB OPT$18.0M / $7.0M buyoutEXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202116 ROKDSL Orioles 1 — 154134 32805 19321 10 239338410748 172278 2112 337 23 — — — — — —
202217 ROKFCL Orioles — 180158 44506 15374 10 278356424780 146322 218 345 63 — — — — — —
202318 AABowie Baysox — 1615 7110 110 00 4675006671.167 200500 66 508 216 — — — — — —
202318 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 11596 32628 19200 52 3334436881.131 354353 1717 481 168 — — — — — —
202318 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 352308 9219412 41732 73 299385503888 205357 2112 391 90 — — — — — —
202419 AAANorfolk Tides — 8681 18303 5270 10 222267370638 148294 316 284 51 — — — — — —
202419 AABowie Baysox — 446398 11522016 41852 95 289358465823 176329 199 362 90 — — — — — —
202520 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 118109 18604 6303 00 165229330559 165187 255 251 53 -7 +0 +0 +8 +3 0.4
202520 AAANorfolk Tides — 321270 7317023 44764 00 270381589969 319287 2414 415 114 — — — — — —
202621 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 399360 8010118 321064 00 222293406698 183259 278 309 89 -5 +0 -0 +7 +9 1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 517469 9816122 381367 00 209278388666 179242 267 296 86 -8 +0 +0 +15 +11 1.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202116 ROK MLEDSL Orioles 1 — 154140 20502 13391 10 143221221442 79173 258 202 23 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 180164 36404 9544 10 220277317594 98279 305 262 63 — — — — — —
202318 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 1615 7110 110 00 4675006671.167 200510 66 488 216 — — — — — —
202318 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 115104 30528 11270 52 288357606962 317323 2310 417 168 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 352321 761449 28992 73 237302389691 153310 288 301 90 — — — — — —
202419 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 8682 17302 4300 10 207244317561 110300 355 243 51 — — — — — —
202419 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 446410 10619010 291072 95 259311378689 120317 247 301 90 — — — — — —
202520 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 118109 18604 6303 00 165229330559 165187 255 246 53 -7 +0 +0 +8 +3 0.4
202520 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 321285 6615018 29944 00 232311474785 242270 299 337 114 — — — — — —
202621 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 399362 7810117 301064 00 215283390672 174259 278 300 89 -5 +0 -0 +7 +9 1.0
202116 ROK MLEDSL Orioles 1 — 154140 20502 13391 10 143221221442 79182 258 202 23 — — — — — —
202116 ROK RAWDSL Orioles 1 — 154134 32805 19321 10 239338410748 172278 2112 337 23 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 180164 36404 9544 10 220277317594 98294 305 262 63 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWFCL Orioles — 180158 44506 15374 10 278356424780 146322 218 345 63 — — — — — —
202318 A MLE3 teams — 483441 11520718 391262 125 261324460784 200326 268 335 113 — — — — — —
202318 A RAW3 teams — 483419 13126720 61942 125 313402551954 239363 1913 416 113 — — — — — —
202419 AA MLE2 teams — 532493 12321012 321372 105 249298365663 116319 266 292 84 — — — — — —
202419 AA RAW2 teams — 532479 13325019 461122 105 278343449792 171324 219 349 84 — — — — — —
202520 AAA MLE2 teams — 439394 8421022 351247 00 213289434723 221247 288 313 98 — — — — — —
202520 AAA RAW2 teams — 439379 9123027 501067 00 240339515854 274257 2411 371 98 — — — — — —
202621 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 399362 7810117 301064 00 215283390672 174252 278 300 89 -5 +0 -0 +7 +9 1.0
202621 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 399360 8010118 321064 00 222293406698 183259 278 309 89 -5 +0 -0 +7 +9 1.0
202116 ROK MLEDSL Orioles 1 — 154139 20502 13391 10 144221223444 79173 258 202 23 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 180165 36404 9544 10 218277315592 97279 305 262 63 — — — — — —
202318 A MLE3 teams — 483439 11520718 391262 125 262324462786 200320 268 335 113 — — — — — —
202419 AA MLE2 teams — 532493 12321012 321372 105 249298365663 116314 266 292 84 — — — — — —
202520 AAA MLE2 teams — 439394 8421022 351247 00 213289434723 221248 288 313 98 — — — — — —
202621 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 399362 7810117 301064 00 215283390672 174259 278 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 AA MLE2 teams — 532493 12321012 321372 105 249298365663 116314 266 292 84 — — — — — —
202520 AAA MLE2 teams — 439394 8421022 351247 00 213289434723 221248 288 313 98 — — — — — —
202621 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 399362 7810117 301064 00 215283390672 174259 278 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEBAL 100% 509458 10517223 401256 21 227297418715 191258 258 315 100 -0 +0 -4 +9 +11 1.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXBAL 100% 432390 9015120 341065 21 232301431732 199262 258 322 100 -0 +0 -4 +8 +9 1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445401 9315122 361075 21 232302437740 205259 248 325 106 +3 +0 -4 +8 +10 1.7
202924 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445401 9515123 361065 21 236306449755 213260 248 331 110 +5 +0 -4 +8 +10 2.0
203025 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445401 9415123 361065 21 237308455763 218261 248 334 112 +6 +0 -4 +8 +10 2.1
203126 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445401 9415123 361065 21 237308455763 218260 248 334 112 +6 +0 -4 +8 +10 2.1
203227 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445401 9415123 361065 11 236307452759 216260 248 332 111 +6 -0 -4 +8 +10 2.0
203328 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445401 9415123 361075 01 234305447752 213258 248 330 109 +5 -0 -4 +8 +10 1.8
203429 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445402 9214122 361094 00 231302441743 209257 248 326 107 +4 +0 -5 +8 +10 1.6
203530 MLB MLEBAL 98% 445402 9114122 361104 00 228298432730 204255 258 321 103 +2 +0 -6 +8 +10 1.4
203631 MLB MLEBAL 98% 413373 8413120 331044 00 223293421714 198251 258 314 99 -1 +0 -6 +7 +9 1.0
203732 MLB MLEBAL 98% 372337 7411117 29953 00 217286407693 190246 268 306 93 -3 +0 -7 +7 +8 0.5
203833 MLB MLEBAL 98% 320289 619014 25843 00 210278390667 180239 268 295 86 -5 +0 -7 +6 +7 0.0
203934 MLB MLEBAL 94% 253230 466011 19682 00 201267369636 168231 278 283 77 -7 +0 -7 +5 +5 -0.4
202823 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436393 9315122 351055 21 237307450757 213264 248 332 106 +3 +0 -4 +8 +9 1.7
202924 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436393 9415123 351045 21 240311462773 222265 248 338 110 +5 +0 -4 +8 +9 1.9
203025 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436393 9515124 351045 21 242312469781 227265 248 341 112 +6 +0 -4 +8 +9 2.0
203126 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436392 9515124 361045 21 242312468781 227265 248 341 112 +6 +0 -4 +8 +9 2.0
203227 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436392 9515124 361045 11 241311466777 225264 248 339 111 +6 -0 -4 +8 +9 2.0
203328 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436393 9315123 361054 01 239309461770 222263 248 337 109 +5 -0 -4 +8 +9 1.8
203429 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436394 9214123 351064 00 236306454760 218261 248 333 107 +3 +0 -5 +8 +9 1.6
203530 MLB CTXBAL 98% 436394 9214123 351084 00 233303445748 213259 258 328 103 +2 +0 -6 +8 +9 1.4
203631 MLB CTXBAL 98% 405366 8413120 321024 00 228297434731 206255 258 321 99 -0 +0 -6 +7 +9 1.0
203732 MLB CTXBAL 98% 365330 7411118 29933 00 222290420710 198250 258 312 93 -3 +0 -6 +7 +8 0.5
203833 MLB CTXBAL 98% 314284 619015 24823 00 214282402683 187243 268 302 86 -5 +0 -7 +6 +7 0.0
203934 MLB CTXBAL 94% 237215 456011 18642 00 205271380651 175235 278 288 77 -6 +0 -7 +4 +5 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 53264808 111117311272 424131756 96 231301441742 210259 258 325 99 +13 -1 -59 +101 +115 17.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 13521133 521617 11 230300438738 208258 258 325 99 +2 -0 -7 +12 +14 2.1
Career— MLE — 75376823 155625219337 586190075 3517 228296419715 191264 258 314 99 +13 -1 -64 +110 +127 19.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650588 13522229 511646 31 230297422719 192266 258 314 99 +1 -0 -7 +12 +14 2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 321 PAwOBA .406 → .337 (−68)K% 23.7% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.68%÷0.967×1.200——29.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.08%÷1.063×0.690—×1.0508.92%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.940—×1.0501.23%
Singles /BIP17.01%÷0.959×0.930×0.992×1.05017.17%
Doubles /BIP8.76%÷0.978×0.830×0.992×1.0507.75%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.992×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP11.86%÷0.945×0.700—×1.0509.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .406 → .337; ISO .319 → .255; BABIP .287 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 446 PAwOBA .354 → .301 (−53)K% 19.1% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.06%÷0.970×1.220——23.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.97%÷1.028×0.700—×1.0506.41%
HBP% /PA0.45%—×0.850—×1.0500.40%
Singles /BIP24.60%÷1.008×0.970×1.007×1.05025.04%
Doubles /BIP7.03%÷1.062×0.860×1.007×1.0506.02%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.135×0.950×1.007×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP5.11%÷1.249×0.780—×1.0503.35%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .354 → .301; ISO .176 → .125; BABIP .329 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 86 PAwOBA .276 → .243 (−33)K% 31.4% → 35.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.40%÷1.070×1.200——35.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.81%÷0.987×0.690—×1.0504.27%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷0.962×0.930×1.050×1.05023.68%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷1.006×0.830×1.050×1.0505.05%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.050×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷0.996×0.700—×1.0504.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .276 → .243; ISO .148 → .111; BABIP .294 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 352 PAwOBA .381 → .301 (−81)K% 20.7% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.74%÷1.008×1.360——27.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.65%÷1.065×0.690—×1.0457.89%
HBP% /PA0.57%—×0.780—×1.0450.46%
Singles /BIP24.26%÷1.020×0.920×0.965×1.04522.05%
Doubles /BIP8.09%÷1.101×0.830×0.965×1.0456.15%
Triples /BIP1.70%÷0.940×0.910×0.965×1.0451.66%
Home runs /BIP5.11%÷1.020×0.800—×1.0454.18%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .381 → .301; ISO .205 → .160; BABIP .357 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 115 PAwOBA .464 → .417 (−47)K% 17.4% → 23.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.39%÷0.986×1.310——23.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.78%÷0.982×0.600—×1.0509.48%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP21.05%÷1.037×0.870×1.039×1.05019.26%
Doubles /BIP7.89%÷0.980×0.780×1.039×1.0506.85%
Triples /BIP2.63%÷0.900×0.850×1.039×1.0502.71%
Home runs /BIP10.53%÷0.912×0.880—×1.05010.67%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .464 → .417; ISO .354 → .358; BABIP .353 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 16 PAwOBA .494 → .488 (−6)K% 6.2% → 7.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA6.25%÷0.988×1.220——7.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷0.989×0.700—×1.0504.64%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP35.71%÷0.965×0.970—×1.05037.69%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.046×0.860—×1.0506.17%
Triples /BIP7.14%÷0.998×0.950—×1.0507.14%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.208×0.780—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .494 → .488; ISO .200 → .191; BABIP .500 → .510. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Orioles · 180 PAwOBA .342 → .262 (−80)K% 20.6% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.56%÷0.988×1.440——29.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.031×0.620—×1.0225.12%
HBP% /PA2.22%—×0.720—×1.0221.64%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷0.967×0.820×1.029×1.02224.33%
Doubles /BIP4.13%÷0.966×0.720×1.029×1.0223.24%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.927×0.720×1.029×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP4.96%÷1.010×0.780—×1.0223.92%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .342 → .262; ISO .146 → .108; BABIP .322 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Orioles 1 · 154 PAwOBA .326 → .202 (−123)K% 20.8% → 25.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.78%÷1.000×1.220——25.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.69%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0228.37%
HBP% /PA0.65%—×0.700—×1.0220.46%
Singles /BIP18.63%÷1.000×0.680×0.953×1.02212.34%
Doubles /BIP7.84%÷1.000×0.600×0.953×1.0224.58%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.600×0.953×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP4.90%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0222.36%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .326 → .202; ISO .172 → .088; BABIP .278 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).