Bryan Woo — OGILVIE

Bryan Woo P Seattle Mariners

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 3.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION162 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9587vR 79

ERA3.20

FIP3.40

K%25.0%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%20.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 178 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p4624.7%

p6424.8%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

FB+6.0 (66%)

SL+1.7 (26%)

CH+1.3 (6%)

SI (20%)

CU (2%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+2.6	$20M	+$13M
2028	Arb-3	$13M	+2.4	$16M	+$6M
2029	Arb-4	$16M	+1.9	$12M	+$0.2M
Totals		$37M		$50M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	57	250	84	22	4	100%	3.6	24.4%	10.9%	13.5%	2.2%	4.11	3.62	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	57	250	84	22	4	100%	3.6	33.6%	8.8%	24.8%	1.6%	4.11	2.22	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	132	543	152	42	15	100%	4.9	25.9%	8.0%	18.0%	3.0%	3.49	3.55	+2.2
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	132	543	152	42	15	100%	4.9	25.9%	8.0%	18.0%	3.0%	3.49	3.55	+2.2
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	132	543	152	42	15	100%	4.9	28.0%	7.7%	20.3%	2.8%	3.49	3.23	+2.7
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	135	521	120	15	15	100%	5.2	21.4%	2.8%	18.6%	3.0%	2.73	3.31	+2.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	135	521	120	15	15	100%	5.2	21.4%	2.8%	18.6%	3.0%	2.73	3.31	+2.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	135	521	120	15	15	100%	5.2	23.0%	2.9%	20.2%	2.9%	2.73	3.10	+3.0
2025	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	187	731	198	36	26	100%	6.2	27.1%	4.9%	22.2%	3.6%	2.94	3.44	+3.4
2025	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	187	731	198	36	26	100%	6.2	27.1%	4.9%	22.2%	3.6%	2.94	3.44	+3.4
2025	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	30	30	187	731	198	36	26	100%	6.2	27.1%	4.9%	22.2%	3.6%	2.94	3.37	+3.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			98	98	558	2231	555	113	71	100%	5.7	24.9%	5.1%	19.8%	3.2%	3.40	3.37	+10.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	28	28	162	657	163	34	18	100%	5.8	24.8%	5.2%	19.6%	2.8%	3.88	3.20	+3.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	28	28	162	657	163	34	18	100%	5.8	24.8%	5.2%	19.6%	2.8%	3.88	3.20	+3.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	SEA	28	28	162	657	163	34	18	100%	5.8	24.8%	5.2%	19.6%	2.7%	3.88	3.16	+3.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	SEA	28	28	162	657	163	34	18	100%	5.8	24.8%	5.2%	19.6%	2.7%	3.88	3.16	+3.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SEA	3	3	15	64	16	3	2	100%	5.1	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	3.2%	3.20	3.40	+0.3
ROS	26	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	15	63	16	3	2	100%	7.5	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	3.2%	3.15	3.35	+0.3
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	178	721	179	37	20	—	—	24.8%	5.2%	19.7%	2.8%	3.82	3.22	+3.7
FULL	26	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	178	750	179	37	20	—	—	23.9%	5.0%	18.9%	2.7%	3.82	3.18	+3.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	30	30	180	761	191	39	23	100%	6.0	25.1%	5.1%	20.0%	3.1%	3.59	3.69	+2.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	175	738	184	39	23	100%	6.0	25.0%	5.2%	19.7%	3.2%	3.70	3.77	+2.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	28	28	167	705	172	39	23	100%	6.0	24.4%	5.5%	18.9%	3.3%	3.84	3.93	+1.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	157	662	157	38	23	100%	6.0	23.7%	5.8%	17.9%	3.5%	4.02	4.14	+1.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	146	618	142	38	23	100%	6.1	22.9%	6.1%	16.8%	3.7%	4.23	4.37	+0.9
2032	32	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	135	571	127	37	23	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.5%	15.6%	4.0%	4.47	4.63	+0.4
2033	33	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	124	524	112	37	22	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	4.3%	4.73	4.91	-0.0
2034	34	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	113	477	97	36	22	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.5%	12.9%	4.6%	5.02	5.21	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	30	30	180	760	191	39	23	100%	6.0	25.1%	5.1%	20.0%	3.0%	3.55	3.65	+2.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	29	29	175	739	185	39	23	100%	6.0	25.0%	5.2%	19.7%	3.1%	3.66	3.73	+2.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	28	28	167	705	172	39	23	100%	6.0	24.4%	5.5%	18.9%	3.2%	3.79	3.88	+1.9
2030	30	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	157	663	157	38	23	100%	6.0	23.7%	5.8%	17.9%	3.4%	3.97	4.09	+1.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	146	616	141	38	22	100%	6.1	22.9%	6.1%	16.8%	3.6%	4.18	4.32	+0.9
2032	32	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	135	570	126	37	22	100%	6.1	22.1%	6.5%	15.6%	3.9%	4.42	4.58	+0.4
2033	33	MLB CTX	SEA	21	21	124	524	112	37	22	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	4.2%	4.67	4.85	-0.0
2034	34	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	113	477	97	36	21	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.5%	12.9%	4.5%	4.96	5.15	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		300	300	1771	7351	1753	418	252	100%	5.9	23.8%	5.7%	18.2%	3.4%	3.86	3.69	+26.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	830	198	47	28	100%	5.9	23.8%	5.7%	18.2%	3.4%	3.86	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		127	127	673	2702	674	155	83	100%	5.3	25.0%	5.7%	19.2%	3.1%	3.33	3.40	+19.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	803	200	46	25	100%	5.3	25.0%	5.7%	19.2%	3.1%	3.33	3.40	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Woo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.76	25.8%	4.8%	3.4%	—	3.79	24.8%	19.6%	522	+0.03	—	—	—
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	75
Trevor Bauer R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SP	3.74	26.2%	8.0%	3.4%	.333	2.96	30.2%	22.2%	461	-0.78	2.16	1,111	74
Kevin Gausman R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP	4.11	21.9%	8.7%	3.2%	.333	3.76	23.2%	16.8%	346	-0.35	2.34	1,930	70
Gerrit Cole R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP	4.12	23.1%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	2.67	36.6%	29.8%	486	-1.45	2.48	1,829	68
Jon Gray R 2018 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	24.6%	6.9%	3.2%	.317	3.76	22.6%	14.4%	338	+0.10	2.93	1,345	67
José Ureña R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	26	SP	3.86	18.3%	6.0%	2.8%	.262	4.78	15.5%	7.2%	209	+0.92	3.86	1,251	66
Mike Foltynewicz R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	26	SP	3.17	27.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.246	4.80	18.7%	11.8%	307	+1.63	3.17	938	64
Aaron Nola R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	26	SP	3.60	26.9%	9.0%	2.9%	.287	2.66	30.0%	25.3%	457	-0.94	2.29	1,999	61
Brady Singer R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	26	SP	4.07	18.9%	7.0%	3.1%	.324	4.05	21.3%	13.4%	500	-0.02	3.57	1,168	61
Luis Castillo R 2019 · 3.37 FIP	26	SP	3.37	28.9%	10.1%	2.6%	.258	3.06	26.2%	18.1%	408	-0.31	2.44	1,858	61
Noah Syndergaard R 2019 · 3.37 FIP	26	SP	3.37	24.5%	5.8%	2.9%	.309	3.64	16.8%	11.3%	135	+0.27	0.99	984	60
George Kirby R 2023 · 3.12 FIP	25	SP	3.12	22.7%	2.4%	3.0%	.288	3.38	22.7%	18.2%	482	+0.26	2.18	895	59
Joe Musgrove R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	21.9%	5.3%	3.2%	.293	3.27	26.7%	20.2%	402	-0.39	3.02	1,255	59
Jake Odorizzi R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	21.5%	6.6%	3.9%	.268	4.11	23.7%	14.6%	467	-0.13	3.16	1,048	58
Michael Wacha R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP	3.57	22.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.323	4.92	19.7%	10.9%	245	+1.35	3.57	1,638	57
Jameson Taillon R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	26	SP	3.36	22.8%	5.4%	2.8%	.292	3.98	22.3%	15.8%	182	+0.62	3.12	1,401	57
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	56
Kyle Bradish R 2023 · 2.97 FIP	26	SP	2.97	25.0%	6.6%	2.1%	.265	3.61	25.0%	15.3%	243	+0.64	2.20	750	56
Julio Teheran R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	18.6%	8.5%	3.8%	.276	4.68	21.2%	10.4%	382	-0.02	3.61	1,134	55
Jakob Junis R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	26	SP	4.63	21.3%	7.4%	4.3%	.310	4.54	20.3%	14.2%	206	-0.09	3.15	1,302	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	153	23.7%	5.8%	1.39	4.05
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45