Bryan Woo
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 4.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9383vR 74
ERA3.01
FIP3.22
K%24.6%
BB%4.6%
K-BB%20.0%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 179 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
FB+6.0 (66%)
SL+1.7 (28%)
CH+1.3 (6%)
SI (18%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 57 | 250 | 84 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 4.11 | 3.69 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 57 | 250 | 84 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 33.6% | 8.8% | 24.8% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 2.22 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 132 | 543 | 152 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 18.0% | 3.1% | 3.49 | 3.65 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 132 | 543 | 152 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 28.0% | 7.7% | 20.3% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 3.23 | +3.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 135 | 521 | 120 | 15 | 15 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.4% | 2.8% | 18.6% | 3.1% | 2.73 | 3.36 | +3.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 135 | 521 | 120 | 15 | 15 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.0% | 2.9% | 20.2% | 2.9% | 2.73 | 3.10 | +3.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 30 | 30 | 187 | 731 | 198 | 36 | 26 | 100% | 6.2 | 27.1% | 4.9% | 22.2% | 3.7% | 2.94 | 3.49 | +4.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 30 | 30 | 187 | 731 | 198 | 36 | 26 | 100% | 6.2 | 27.1% | 4.9% | 22.2% | 3.6% | 2.94 | 3.37 | +4.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 18 | 18 | 104 | 424 | 102 | 19 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 4.5% | 19.6% | 2.4% | 4.23 | 2.93 | +3.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 75 | 317 | 78 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 4.6% | 20.0% | 2.9% | 3.01 | 3.22 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 78 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.6% | 4.6% | 20.0% | 2.9% | 2.97 | 3.18 | +1.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 179 | 741 | 180 | 34 | 19 | — | — | 24.3% | 4.5% | 19.8% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.05 | +4.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 179 | 758 | 180 | 34 | 19 | — | — | 23.8% | 4.4% | 19.3% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.04 | +5.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 30 | 30 | 180 | 761 | 188 | 36 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 4.7% | 20.1% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.63 | +3.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 29 | 29 | 175 | 738 | 182 | 36 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 4.8% | 19.8% | 3.1% | 3.64 | 3.71 | +3.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 28 | 167 | 705 | 170 | 36 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 3.78 | 3.87 | +3.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 26 | 157 | 662 | 155 | 36 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 5.4% | 18.0% | 3.4% | 3.96 | 4.08 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 146 | 618 | 140 | 35 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 5.7% | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 4.31 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 135 | 571 | 125 | 35 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 4.57 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 110 | 34 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 6.6% | 14.4% | 4.2% | 4.67 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 96 | 34 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 4.96 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 101 | 428 | 82 | 33 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 5.28 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 188 | 36 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 4.7% | 20.1% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 3.59 | +3.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 182 | 36 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 4.8% | 19.8% | 3.0% | 3.60 | 3.67 | +3.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 28 | 167 | 705 | 170 | 36 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 3.74 | 3.83 | +3.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 155 | 36 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 5.4% | 18.0% | 3.4% | 3.91 | 4.03 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 139 | 35 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 5.7% | 16.9% | 3.6% | 4.12 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 124 | 35 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 4.36 | 4.52 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 110 | 34 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 6.6% | 14.4% | 4.1% | 4.61 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 96 | 34 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 4.90 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 81 | 32 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 5.21 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 317 | 317 | 1874 | 7799 | 1818 | 426 | 268 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 5.5% | 17.9% | 3.4% | 3.88 | 3.71 | +37.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 832 | 194 | 45 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 5.5% | 17.9% | 3.4% | 3.88 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 117 | 615 | 2469 | 613 | 140 | 76 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.8% | 5.7% | 19.2% | 3.1% | 3.34 | 3.42 | +14.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 803 | 199 | 45 | 25 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.8% | 5.7% | 19.2% | 3.1% | 3.34 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Woo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.80 | 25.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | — | 3.73 | 24.5% | 19.7% | 522 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| George Kirby R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.17 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | .287 | 3.26 | 24.0% | 18.5% | 236 | +0.09 | 2.16 | 840 | 55 |
| Logan Gilbert R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.78 | 24.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | .271 | 3.24 | 28.6% | 23.6% | 454 | -0.54 | 3.22 | 1,084 | 52 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.90 | 24.9% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .268 | 4.41 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 340 | +1.51 | 2.90 | 806 | 51 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2028 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.39 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.66 | 27.0% | 19.9% | 413 | +0.27 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 51 |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.47 | 20.0% | 5.1% | 2.6% | .303 | 4.13 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 237 | +0.66 | 3.47 | 824 | 50 |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.70 | 29.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | .308 | 2.81 | 29.5% | 22.9% | 453 | +0.11 | 2.42 | 811 | 50 |
| Trevor Bauer R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.75 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .333 | 2.99 | 30.2% | 22.2% | 461 | -0.76 | 2.16 | 1,111 | 50 |
| Masahiro Tanaka R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.83 | 22.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | .242 | 3.65 | 23.6% | 18.5% | 534 | -0.18 | 3.33 | 918 | 50 |
| Hunter Brown R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.89 | 28.3% | 7.7% | 2.2% | .258 | 4.56 | 25.5% | 11.1% | 35 | +1.67 | 2.84 | 773 | 50 |
| Chris Archer R 2026 · 2.88 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.88 | 29.0% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.57 | 27.5% | 20.1% | 551 | +0.69 | 2.88 | 1,018 | 49 |
| Jordan Zimmermann R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.57 | 19.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 417 | +1.31 | 3.57 | 731 | 49 |
| Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .333 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.8% | 346 | -0.38 | 2.34 | 1,876 | 49 |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2028 · 2.67 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.67 | 29.6% | 5.6% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.01 | 27.8% | 22.6% | 538 | +0.34 | 2.67 | 1,455 | 49 |
| Michael Pineda R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.13 | 23.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | .330 | 3.78 | 25.6% | 19.4% | 272 | +0.65 | 2.00 | 786 | 48 |
| Gerrit Cole R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.98 | 23.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% | .296 | 2.55 | 36.6% | 29.8% | 486 | -1.43 | 2.31 | 1,763 | 47 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2029 · 3.06 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.06 | 18.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | .274 | 4.03 | 18.2% | 13.7% | 248 | +0.97 | 3.06 | 1,275 | 47 |
| Rick Porcello R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.89 | 20.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | .326 | 3.73 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 618 | -0.16 | 3.14 | 1,023 | 47 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.41 | 20.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | .315 | 3.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 312 | +0.25 | 2.95 | 819 | 47 |
| José Ureña R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.87 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 2.8% | .262 | 4.82 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 209 | +0.95 | 3.87 | 1,251 | 47 |
| Jon Gray R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.42 | 24.6% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .317 | 3.55 | 22.6% | 14.4% | 338 | +0.13 | 2.79 | 1,345 | 47 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 148 | 23.1% | 5.6% | 1.41 | 4.09 |
| Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS | 8 | 155 | 22.7% | 5.9% | 1.23 | 3.70 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |
| Michael Pineda ('22) | 7 | 109 | 22.9% | 5.0% | 1.43 | 4.35 |
| Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF | 9 | 169 | 21.2% | 4.8% | 1.10 | 3.42 |
| Masahiro Tanaka ('20) | 6 | 153 | 22.6% | 5.0% | 1.41 | 3.88 |