Bryan Woo
P
Seattle Mariners
+3.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 3.0 · 2026
ERA3.56
FIP3.78
xFIP4.21
SIERA3.93
K%25.5%
BB%5.1%
K-BB%20.4%
IP177
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p4224.2%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p900.253
FB+6.0 (70%)
SL+1.7 (25%)
CH+1.3 (5%)
SI (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 16 | 16 | 57 | 250 | 84 | 22 | 4 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 4.11 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 27 | 27 | 132 | 543 | 152 | 42 | 15 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 3.53 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 26 | 26 | 135 | 521 | 120 | 15 | 15 | 21.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.73 | 3.31 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 30 | 30 | 187 | 731 | 198 | 36 | 26 | 27.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.94 | 3.33 | +4.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 4 | 4 | 25 | 97 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 2.01 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 143 | 30 | 16 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.92 | 3.19 | +3.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 165 | 688 | 163 | 35 | 16 | 23.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 2.80 | 3.01 | +4.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 28 | 156 | 660 | 160 | 34 | 18 | 24.3% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.59 | +3.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 149 | 32 | 17 | 24.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.56 | 3.62 | +2.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 132 | 29 | 16 | 23.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 3.64 | 3.69 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 117 | 27 | 15 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 3.73 | 3.78 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 102 | 25 | 13 | 22.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.89 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 95 | 403 | 89 | 23 | 12 | 22.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 4.00 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 76 | 21 | 11 | 21.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.13 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 72 | 16 | 10 | 22.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 4.00 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 61 | 15 | 9 | 21.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 51 | 14 | 8 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 4.23 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 42 | 12 | 7 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 38 | MLB | SEA | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 35 | 11 | 7 | 19.5% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 103 | 536 | 2142 | 531 | 126 | 62 | 24.8% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 3.11 | 3.34 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 800 | 198 | 47 | 23 | 24.8% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 3.11 | 3.34 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Woo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.72 | 26.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | — | 3.63 | 24.1% | 18.9% | 433 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .333 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 16.8% | 346 | -0.32 | 2.09 | 1,786 | 53 |
| José Ureña R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.95 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .262 | 4.72 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 209 | +0.77 | 3.95 | 1,251 | 53 |
| Garrett Richards R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.67 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .271 | 3.44 | 25.5% | 16.1% | 139 | -0.23 | 2.27 | 577 | 53 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.84 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | .284 | 3.98 | 25.2% | 16.0% | 71 | -0.86 | 3.95 | 281 | 52 |
| Chase Anderson R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.40 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.33 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 52 |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.54 | 20.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | .303 | 3.87 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 174 | +0.33 | 3.54 | 761 | 52 |
| Jordan Zimmermann R 2029 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.41 | 19.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | .297 | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 417 | +1.27 | 3.41 | 731 | 51 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.62 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.63 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +1.01 | 3.62 | 786 | 51 |
| Zach Petrick R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.38 | 14.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 157 | 51 |
| Duncan Davitt R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.13 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 369 | 51 |
| Rick Porcello R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.03 | 20.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | .326 | 3.85 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 618 | -0.18 | 3.13 | 1,023 | 50 |
| Lindsey Caughel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.49 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .276 | 5.13 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 29 | +0.64 | 4.49 | 187 | 50 |
| Matt Heidenreich R 2024 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.34 | 15.4% | 5.2% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 155 | 50 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.74 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .301 | 4.50 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.76 | 3.50 | 622 | 50 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.04 | 19.4% | 7.7% | 1.1% | .287 | 3.82 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 208 | +0.78 | 3.04 | 1,461 | 49 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2029 · 3.13 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.13 | 18.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | .274 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 13.7% | 248 | +1.11 | 3.13 | 1,196 | 49 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.91 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.3% | .264 | 3.75 | 23.7% | 18.5% | 68 | -0.16 | 3.75 | 284 | 49 |
| Terry Doyle R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 14.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | .262 | 2.82 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 35 | -0.38 | 2.82 | 193 | 49 |
| Mike Hauschild R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .312 | 4.43 | 16.4% | 4.8% | 247 | +1.26 | 3.17 | 579 | 49 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.85 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .276 | 3.70 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 355 | -0.15 | 1.32 | 650 | 49 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.703 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +3.0 | $24M | +$23M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $6M | +3.0 | $25M | +$19M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $10M | +2.8 | $24M | +$14M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $13M | +2.4 | $21M | +$8M |
| Totals | $30M | $93M | +$63M | ||