Brady Singer — OGILVIE

Brady Singer P Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION151 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.29

FIP4.22

K%19.1%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6560

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

SI (50%)

SL (41%)

CT (7%)

FB-5.7 (52%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.907 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$1.0M
Totals		$1M		$0.1M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	613	138	39	9	100%	5.7	17.9%	7.1%	10.8%	2.0%	2.85	3.57	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	148	613	138	39	9	100%	5.7	22.5%	6.4%	16.2%	1.5%	2.85	2.82	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	12	12	64	263	61	23	8	100%	5.4	23.2%	8.7%	14.4%	3.3%	4.06	4.05	+0.6
2020	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	12	12	64	263	61	23	8	100%	5.4	23.2%	8.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.06	3.89	+0.8
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	133	609	133	53	15	100%	4.6	22.4%	8.9%	13.5%	2.6%	5.21	3.75	+1.8
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	133	609	133	53	15	100%	4.6	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	2.5%	5.21	3.76	+1.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	167	674	161	39	21	90%	5.6	23.7%	5.8%	17.9%	3.4%	3.23	3.69	+2.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	167	674	161	39	21	90%	5.6	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	3.1%	3.23	3.51	+2.8
2023	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	29	29	160	702	133	49	20	100%	5.5	18.9%	7.0%	12.0%	3.1%	5.52	4.07	+1.6
2023	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	29	29	160	702	133	49	20	100%	5.5	18.9%	7.0%	12.0%	3.1%	5.52	4.07	+1.6
2023	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	29	29	160	702	133	49	20	100%	5.5	18.9%	7.0%	12.0%	2.8%	5.52	3.98	+1.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	180	762	170	54	22	100%	5.6	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	3.1%	3.71	3.83	+2.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	180	762	170	54	22	100%	5.6	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	3.1%	3.71	3.83	+2.3
2024	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	32	32	180	762	170	54	22	100%	5.6	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	2.9%	3.71	3.70	+2.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	170	716	163	60	19	100%	5.3	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.5%	4.03	3.59	+2.7
2025	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	170	716	163	60	19	100%	5.3	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.5%	4.03	3.59	+2.7
2025	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	170	716	163	60	19	100%	5.3	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.7%	4.03	3.70	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			188	185	1006	4333	933	329	131	98%	5.3	21.5%	7.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	3.92	+11.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	151	683	125	56	30	100%	5.2	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.1%	5.38	4.83	+0.1
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	151	683	125	56	30	100%	5.2	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.1%	5.38	4.83	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	CIN	29	29	151	683	125	56	30	100%	5.2	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.4%	5.38	5.00	-0.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CIN	29	29	151	683	125	56	30	100%	5.2	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	4.4%	5.38	5.00	-0.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CIN	2	2	14	58	11	5	2	100%	6.8	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	3.1%	4.29	4.22	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	14	59	11	5	2	100%	7.0	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.35	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	164	741	136	61	32	—	—	18.4%	8.2%	10.2%	4.3%	5.29	4.77	+0.2
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	164	694	136	61	32	—	—	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	4.6%	5.30	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	158	668	124	56	26	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	3.9%	5.07	5.12	-0.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	147	622	111	54	26	100%	5.9	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	4.1%	5.24	5.36	-0.8
2027	30	MLB CTX	CIN	26	26	158	667	124	56	28	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	4.2%	5.24	5.29	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	147	621	111	54	28	100%	6.1	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	4.5%	5.42	5.54	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		242	239	1325	5680	1179	444	189	99%	5.5	20.8%	7.8%	12.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.16	+11.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	858	178	67	29	99%	5.5	20.8%	7.8%	12.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		219	216	1172	5022	1057	379	150	99%	5.4	21.1%	7.5%	13.5%	3.0%	4.23	3.92	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	37	200	857	180	65	26	99%	5.4	21.1%	7.5%	13.5%	3.0%	4.23	3.92	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Singer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	21.4%	7.9%	2.8%	—	5.24	18.2%	9.6%	306	+1.04	—	—	—
Rick Porcello R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	29	SP	3.75	23.5%	5.9%	3.4%	.276	4.16	19.1%	13.5%	233	+0.41	3.13	1,023	70
Mike Leake R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	29	SP	3.69	16.6%	4.3%	2.6%	.303	4.53	15.2%	11.7%	383	+0.84	3.69	937	69
Kyle Gibson R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP	4.42	18.6%	8.6%	3.3%	.323	4.09	21.7%	12.9%	424	-0.33	3.56	1,689	66
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,146	66
Dan Straily R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	29	SP	4.87	19.1%	9.1%	4.1%	.247	5.89	18.2%	10.6%	115	+1.02	3.50	890	66
Masahiro Tanaka R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	29	SP	3.71	25.0%	5.5%	3.7%	.279	4.02	20.2%	15.1%	230	+0.31	3.34	918	65
Jake Odorizzi R 2019 · 3.16 FIP	29	SP	3.16	27.1%	8.1%	2.4%	.299	4.33	19.8%	12.5%	225	+1.17	3.16	1,048	65
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	2.90	806	63
Chris Archer R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP	3.64	25.4%	7.2%	3.2%	.331	4.80	26.8%	17.1%	153	+1.16	2.85	1,018	62
Kyle Hendricks R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	29	SP	3.39	20.5%	4.2%	2.7%	.281	4.38	18.0%	13.1%	347	+0.99	3.02	1,685	61
Chad Bettis R 2018 · 4.53 FIP	29	SP-	4.53	15.4%	8.2%	3.1%	.278	4.35	14.6%	8.3%	64	-0.18	3.67	603	59
Erasmo Ramírez R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	29	SP	4.80	15.6%	8.4%	3.5%	.281	3.90	17.7%	13.4%	127	-0.90	2.92	908	56
Zack Wheeler R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	29	SP	3.28	23.6%	5.6%	2.7%	.308	2.47	26.6%	21.3%	437	-0.81	2.28	1,586	56
Andrew Cashner R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP	4.59	19.0%	9.7%	3.4%	.307	4.56	14.5%	5.4%	470	-0.03	3.64	786	54
Jhoulys Chacín R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	29	SP	3.85	20.0%	8.8%	2.4%	.262	4.33	20.3%	11.4%	296	+0.48	3.71	887	54
Anthony DeSclafani R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.268	3.98	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.01	3.38	981	53
Michael Pineda R 2017 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	22.4%	5.1%	4.6%	.300	3.51	23.2%	18.4%	173	-0.85	2.00	786	53
Sonny Gray R 2019 · 3.07 FIP	29	SP	3.07	29.0%	9.5%	2.2%	.251	3.31	26.5%	17.9%	311	+0.24	2.55	1,792	53
Jeremy Hellickson R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SP	3.74	19.9%	5.8%	2.9%	.271	4.80	15.6%	9.2%	311	+1.06	3.74	646	52
Jameson Taillon R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	23.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.268	4.02	20.2%	15.0%	497	-0.07	3.12	1,401	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	158	19.4%	8.3%	1.39	4.84
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75