Brady Singer — OGILVIE

Brady Singer P Cincinnati Reds

+1.9 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.9 · 2026

ERA4.21

FIP4.08

xFIP4.51

SIERA4.63

K%22.3%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.4%

IP168

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.9peak

2026

K†5050

FB Velo

p1090.3

Whiff%

p1019.4%

p1014.5%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

SI (47%)

SL (45%)

CT (5%)

FB-5.7 (50%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	148	613	138	39	9	17.9%	7.1%	2.0%	2.85	3.58	+2.9
2020	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	12	12	64	263	61	23	8	23.2%	8.7%	3.1%	4.06	3.93	+0.8
2021	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	29	29	133	609	133	53	15	22.4%	8.9%	2.5%	5.21	3.69	+2.4
2022	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	30	27	167	674	161	39	21	23.7%	5.8%	3.2%	3.23	3.59	+3.2
2023	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	29	29	160	702	133	49	20	18.9%	7.0%	2.7%	5.52	3.89	+2.6
2024	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	32	32	180	762	170	54	22	22.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.71	3.76	+3.1
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	170	716	163	60	19	22.8%	8.4%	2.4%	4.03	3.58	+3.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	4	4	18	84	14	3	3	16.7%	3.6%	3.6%	5.60	4.11	+0.2
ROS	29	MLB	CIN	25	25	139	586	115	42	17	19.6%	7.2%	2.8%	3.93	3.91	+2.2
2026 Total	29	MLB	CIN	—	—	156	670	129	45	20	19.3%	6.7%	2.9%	4.12	3.93	+2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	CIN	26	26	141	596	113	43	17	19.0%	7.2%	2.9%	4.36	4.39	+1.5
2028	31	MLB	CIN	23	23	127	535	98	39	16	18.4%	7.3%	3.0%	4.44	4.49	+1.2
2029	32	MLB	CIN	21	21	113	477	85	36	15	17.8%	7.5%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	+0.9
2030	33	MLB	CIN	18	18	100	424	73	32	13	17.1%	7.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.74	+0.6
2031	34	MLB	CIN	16	16	89	375	61	29	12	16.4%	7.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.88	+0.3
2032	35	MLB	CIN	14	14	78	328	58	24	11	17.7%	7.3%	3.4%	4.77	4.76	+0.3
2033	36	MLB	CIN	12	12	68	285	48	21	10	16.9%	7.5%	3.5%	4.86	4.92	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			194	191	1039	4423	946	326	119	21.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.09	3.71	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—			37	37	200	851	182	63	23	21.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.09	3.71	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Singer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	20.7%	8.0%	2.7%	—	4.49	18.4%	11.1%	381	+0.25	—	—	—
Matt Garza R 2028 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	15.6%	8.1%	3.6%	.315	4.32	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.49	4.03	365	44
Miguel González R 2028 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	44
Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	29	SP	3.91	15.3%	8.6%	1.8%	.302	4.74	15.8%	5.6%	393	+0.83	3.91	577	44
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	29	SP	4.43	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.50	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.07	4.37	474	43
Kyle Davies R 2028 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	43
Cory Riordan R 2027 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	43
Thad Weber R 2027 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	43
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	29	SP	4.00	13.8%	7.1%	2.1%	.317	3.58	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.42	3.48	515	43
Toru Murata R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	43
Nate Long R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	43
Greg Peavey R 2024 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	11.2%	6.5%	2.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	147	43
Matt Buschmann R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	42
Charlie Morton R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	42
Mike Pelfrey R 2028 · 3.70 FIP	31	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.2%	1.5%	.326	5.27	12.5%	2.9%	239	+1.57	3.70	404	42
Elih Villanueva R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	29	SP	3.82	11.0%	5.5%	1.7%	.269	5.50	14.1%	8.1%	57	+1.68	3.82	225	42
Daniel McCutchen R 2029 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP	4.32	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.81	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.49	4.32	287	41
Jeff Samardzija R 2027 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	17.9%	5.4%	2.9%	.297	4.09	21.5%	16.0%	473	+0.21	3.88	885	41
Paolo Espino R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	18.5%	4.8%	2.3%	.292	4.50	19.9%	13.1%	255	+1.08	3.42	933	41
Marco Estrada R 2029 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	18.1%	7.3%	3.1%	.213	4.56	20.6%	12.0%	506	+0.37	4.10	710	41
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2028 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	21.2%	8.5%	2.3%	.302	4.61	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.98	3.63	469	41

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.907 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$13M	+1.9	$15M	+$2M
Totals		$13M		$15M	+$2M