Lazaro Montes — OGILVIE

Lazaro MontesOF Arkansas Travelers

Age 21 L/R 6'5" / 210 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION370 act + 246 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†98

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .286 / .415

PA246

HR13

K%37

BB%10

BABIP257

ISO222

MLB%6%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 68

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER68

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED32

scouting grade only

DEFENSE39

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$12M	+$10M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+2.2	$12M	+$8M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+2.2	$11M	+$5M
Totals		$25M		$70M	+$55M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	223	191	31	8	2	6	20	112	9	3	1	162	273	319	592	157	329	50	9	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	223	176	50	13	5	10	35	74	9	3	1	284	427	585	1.012	301	421	33	16	433	189	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	302	260	64	14	1	13	35	104	6	2	2	246	349	458	807	212	354	34	12	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	302	241	73	19	2	13	54	76	6	2	2	303	442	560	1.002	257	392	25	18	437	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	542	479	110	14	1	20	47	176	8	5	3	230	309	388	697	159	309	32	9	304	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	542	448	129	21	2	21	78	128	8	5	3	288	403	484	887	196	352	24	14	390	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	583	517	102	16	4	33	57	226	5	7	3	197	283	435	718	238	263	39	10	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	583	490	118	19	7	32	83	169	5	7	3	241	356	504	860	263	294	29	14	374	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AA	SEA	—	370	324	58	10	1	22	39	150	6	5	3	179	279	420	699	241	235	41	11	301	89	-5	-0	+0	-2	+10	0.3
YTD	21	AA	SEA	—	370	305	68	12	1	26	58	116	6	5	3	223	358	525	882	302	256	31	16	384	152	+22	-0	+0	-2	+10	3.1
ROS	21	AA	SEA	6%	246	216	42	7	1	13	25	92	3	4	2	194	286	415	701	222	257	37	10	313	98	-1	+0	-1	-1	+7	0.4
ROS	21	MLB	SEA	6%	15	14	2	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	143	200	357	557	214	255	40	7	300	88	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	AA	SEA	—	385	338	60	10	1	23	40	156	6	5	3	178	276	417	693	240	231	41	10	301	89	-5	-0	-0	-2	+11	0.3
TOT	21	AA	SEA	—	616	540	100	17	2	35	64	242	9	9	5	185	282	418	700	233	245	39	10	306	92	-5	-0	-1	-4	+17	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SEA	46%	581	511	104	17	2	32	58	207	7	9	5	204	293	432	726	229	264	36	10	321	104	+2	-0	-2	-3	+16	1.3
2028	23	MLB	SEA	62%	609	536	115	19	3	34	61	209	7	11	5	215	303	451	754	237	267	34	10	327	108	+6	+0	-2	-4	+17	1.7
2029	24	MLB	SEA	67%	627	552	120	20	3	35	63	209	7	11	6	217	305	455	760	237	270	33	10	330	111	+8	-0	-3	-4	+18	2.0
2030	25	MLB	SEA	69%	634	557	121	20	3	35	64	209	8	11	6	217	307	452	759	235	270	33	10	333	113	+9	-0	-3	-4	+18	2.1
2031	26	MLB	SEA	70%	634	556	121	20	3	35	65	209	8	11	6	218	308	453	762	236	270	33	10	334	114	+10	-0	-3	-4	+18	2.2
2032	27	MLB	SEA	69%	634	555	121	20	3	35	66	209	8	11	6	218	310	454	764	236	270	33	10	334	114	+10	-0	-3	-4	+18	2.2
2033	28	MLB	SEA	69%	629	551	119	20	2	35	66	208	7	11	6	216	308	450	758	234	269	33	10	333	113	+9	-0	-3	-4	+18	2.0
2034	29	MLB	SEA	67%	619	542	116	19	2	34	65	206	7	11	6	214	306	445	751	231	268	33	11	331	111	+8	-0	-4	-4	+18	1.8
2035	30	MLB	SEA	66%	609	533	113	19	2	33	64	204	7	11	5	212	305	441	746	229	267	33	11	328	109	+6	+0	-5	-4	+17	1.6
2036	31	MLB	SEA	65%	595	521	109	18	2	32	62	201	7	10	5	209	302	436	737	226	264	34	10	324	106	+4	+0	-5	-4	+17	1.3
2037	32	MLB	SEA	65%	576	505	103	16	2	30	60	197	6	10	5	204	296	422	718	218	260	34	10	319	102	+1	+0	-6	-3	+16	0.9
2038	33	MLB	SEA	65%	546	478	96	15	2	28	57	190	6	9	5	201	294	416	710	215	255	35	10	312	97	-2	-0	-6	-3	+15	0.4
2039	34	MLB	SEA	60%	499	439	85	13	1	25	52	177	5	8	4	194	286	399	685	205	248	35	10	303	90	-6	+0	-7	-3	+14	-0.1
2040	35	MLB	SEA	56%	443	390	72	10	1	21	45	160	5	7	4	185	277	377	654	192	241	36	10	293	82	-9	-0	-7	-3	+13	-0.7
2027	22	MLB	SEA	46%	265	234	47	8	1	14	26	95	3	4	2	201	289	423	712	222	261	36	10	308	94	-2	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.3
2028	23	MLB	SEA	62%	377	332	69	11	2	20	38	129	4	7	3	208	297	434	731	226	264	34	10	314	98	-1	+0	-2	-2	+11	0.7
2029	24	MLB	SEA	67%	418	368	79	13	2	23	42	139	5	7	4	215	304	448	752	234	267	33	10	318	101	+1	-0	-2	-3	+12	0.8
2030	25	MLB	SEA	69%	437	385	83	14	2	24	44	144	5	8	4	216	304	449	753	234	267	33	10	320	103	+1	+0	-2	-3	+12	1.0
2031	26	MLB	SEA	70%	443	390	84	14	2	24	45	146	5	8	4	215	305	446	751	231	267	33	10	321	104	+2	+0	-2	-3	+13	1.0
2032	27	MLB	SEA	69%	437	384	82	13	2	24	45	144	5	8	4	214	304	445	749	232	267	33	10	321	104	+2	+0	-2	-3	+12	1.0
2033	28	MLB	SEA	69%	431	378	80	13	2	23	45	143	5	8	4	212	304	439	743	228	266	33	10	320	103	+2	+0	-2	-3	+12	0.9
2034	29	MLB	SEA	67%	413	362	77	13	2	22	43	138	5	7	4	213	305	442	747	229	265	33	10	318	102	+1	-0	-3	-2	+12	0.7
2035	30	MLB	SEA	66%	400	350	73	12	1	21	42	134	5	7	4	209	302	429	731	220	264	34	10	316	100	-0	-0	-3	-2	+11	0.6
2036	31	MLB	SEA	65%	387	339	69	11	1	20	41	131	4	7	3	204	297	419	716	215	261	34	11	312	97	-1	+0	-3	-2	+11	0.4
2037	32	MLB	SEA	65%	373	327	65	10	1	19	39	128	4	6	3	199	292	410	702	211	257	34	10	307	93	-3	+0	-4	-2	+11	0.2
2038	33	MLB	SEA	65%	353	309	61	9	1	18	37	123	4	6	3	197	291	408	699	210	252	35	10	300	88	-5	+0	-4	-2	+10	-0.1
2039	34	MLB	SEA	60%	300	263	49	7	1	14	31	106	3	5	2	186	279	380	660	194	246	35	10	291	81	-6	+0	-4	-2	+8	-0.4
2040	35	MLB	SEA	56%	246	216	40	6	1	11	25	89	3	4	2	185	279	375	654	190	239	36	10	282	74	-7	+0	-4	-1	+7	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5295	4651	960	154	21	278	544	1795	60	92	46	206	298	428	725	221	262	34	10	312	97	-18	+0	-37	-32	+150	6.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	118	19	3	34	67	220	7	11	6	207	298	429	727	222	263	34	10	312	97	-2	-0	-5	-4	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	10131	8889	1864	305	40	529	1032	3505	126	162	85	210	301	432	732	222	272	35	10	321	104	+45	-2	-59	-61	+287	21.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	121	20	3	34	66	225	8	10	5	212	303	437	740	225	276	35	10	321	104	+3	+0	-4	-4	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	223	176	50	13	5	10	35	74	9	3	1	284	427	585	1.012	301	421	33	16	433	189	+23	+0	—	—	+6	3.0
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	156	131	42	9	1	7	21	39	4	1	0	321	429	565	994	244	412	25	13	436	191	+16	+0	—	—	+4	2.1
2023	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	146	110	31	10	1	6	33	37	2	1	2	282	455	555	1.010	273	368	25	23	439	194	+16	-1	—	—	+4	1.9
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	233	192	50	8	0	8	35	69	3	4	3	260	383	427	810	167	356	30	15	362	135	+9	-0	—	—	+7	1.6
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	309	256	79	13	2	13	43	59	5	1	0	309	418	527	945	219	349	19	14	410	172	+25	+0	—	—	+9	3.5
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	282	240	51	7	2	14	35	86	4	4	2	212	323	433	756	221	259	30	12	334	113	+4	+0	—	—	+8	1.3
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	301	250	67	12	5	18	48	83	1	3	1	268	387	572	959	304	327	28	16	412	174	+25	+0	—	—	+9	3.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	13	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	/162	664	32	7	245	314	469	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#2Mark Reynoldslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,243 PA	13	6,243	298	64	236	328	453	-49	-105	15.9	16.3
	/162	664	32	7	236	328	453	-5.2	-11.1	1.7	pk7: 17
#3Jeromy Burnitzlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 4,012 PA	7	4,012	192	32	246	330	464	-34	-24	15.5	15.5
	/162	664	32	5	246	330	464	-5.6	-4.0	2.6	pk7: 15
#4Joey Gallolast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,373 PA	9	3,373	207	32	195	320	459	-29	-11	13.5	14.1
#4Joey Gallolast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,373 PA	/162	664	41	6	195	320	459	-5.6	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 15
#5Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	9	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
	/162	664	39	3	242	314	491	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	5,300	287	91	211	299	439	-32	-36	14.9	12.8
	/162	664	36	11	211	299	439	-4.0	-4.6	1.9	pk7: 11
#6Tony Batistalast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,601 PA	7	3,601	162	33	244	291	445	-9	-1	10.4	10.4
	/162	664	30	6	244	291	445	-1.6	-0.2	1.9	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lazaro Montes (OGILVIE)	21	35→40	62→68	34→32	54	185/282/418	233	245	35	9	39%	10%	92	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	39→49	65→60	40→50	46	226/295/469	243	272	35	5	32%	9%	113	+2.6	227/308/420	193	280	23	6	26%	10%	105	+2.1	220/304/400	180	274	20	5	26%	10%	95	+1.3
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	40→49	58→60	38→30	36	221/267/417	196	296	28	3	35%	5%	88	+0.9	242/298/439	197	329	27	2	33%	7%	106	+2.2	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Tyler Soderstrom 2023 · AAA	21	44→54	58→60	44→40	37	236/282/437	201	313	27	3	33%	5%	99	+1.7	228/287/417	189	288	25	4	30%	7%	96	+1.5	257/339/469	212	298	26	4	22%	10%	126	+2.6
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	107	+2.2	228/302/388	160	306	18	7	30%	8%	95	+1.4	229/300/383	153	297	17	7	27%	7%	90	+0.6
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	42→46	60	45→40	50	229/316/447	219	275	27	6	28%	10%	116	+2.8	224/304/409	185	278	23	3	27%	10%	101	+1.8	236/320/456	220	284	29	2	27%	10%	116	+3.1
●Andy Pages 2022 · A	21	42→52	61→60	45→50	45	230/317/449	220	296	29	6	32%	9%	118	+3.0	225/303/412	187	296	23	7	31%	8%	102	+1.8	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
★Chris Davis 2008 · AA	22	43→53	61→70	43→40	34	234/274/455	221	317	31	4	36%	5%	101	+1.8	253/299/460	207	334	27	5	31%	6%	112	+2.6	238/337/508	269	291	38	3	31%	12%	131	+4.0
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	114	+2.7	222/277/341	119	269	13	6	22%	7%	71	-0.3	197/240/273	76	241	5	5	20%	5%	33	-0.7
✕Jaff Decker 2011 · A	21	47→49	57→55	45→55	50	241/329/438	198	309	25	7	29%	10%	118	+3.0	207/285/370	163	278	19	9	31%	9%	83	+0.6	217/292/336	119	282	11	13	25%	9%	74	-0.0
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	38→45	41	220/283/396	176	316	23	4	37%	8%	89	+0.9	203/255/348	145	298	17	4	36%	6%	64	-0.8	213/287/426	213	282	31	7	35%	9%	96	+1.2
✕Orelvis Martinez 2023 · AA	21	32→36	58→60	44→40	41	193/263/390	196	244	28	6	34%	7%	80	+0.4	200/267/396	196	251	27	4	32%	7%	82	+0.5	187/258/384	197	227	27	2	32%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2014 · MLB	23	49→51	56→60	42→45	42	250/306/446	196	324	24	4	30%	7%	111	+2.5	228/287/413	185	293	24	3	30%	6%	95	+1.4	215/292/414	198	292	26	3	34%	8%	95	+0.7
✕Justin Foscue 2022 · AA	23	44→48	61→55	43→50	40	234/305/462	228	311	30	5	34%	7%	115	+2.8	231/310/402	171	265	20	7	21%	8%	102	+1.8	231/312/415	184	255	22	6	19%	9%	102	+1.0
✕Bobby Bradley 2019 · AAA	23	38→40	60→65	46→40	40	215/273/427	212	281	29	3	34%	7%	93	+1.3	219/277/442	223	301	32	3	37%	7%	99	+1.7	191/258/401	210	264	31	0	40%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Travis Snider 2010 · MLB	22	49→53	53→60	39→50	44	245/312/423	177	336	21	4	32%	8%	107	+2.2	249/304/411	162	317	18	12	26%	7%	101	+1.8	251/304/402	151	313	16	15	24%	7%	95	+1.1
●Chris Carter 2009 · A	22	38→48	58→65	47→45	44	214/284/418	204	274	27	3	32%	8%	95	+1.4	235/307/438	203	301	26	6	30%	8%	109	+2.4	213/311/464	252	256	36	3	32%	11%	114	+2.5
★Austin Riley 2020 · MLB	23	43→53	60→65	40	37	232/283/447	214	305	30	2	34%	6%	102	+1.9	264/326/486	222	325	30	2	27%	7%	131	+3.9	282/354/518	236	335	31	1	25%	8%	146	+5.6
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	215/313/403	188	288	23	4	32%	10%	104	+2.0	199/289/354	155	336	18	4	42%	10%	81	+0.4	142/252/289	146	259	20	0	49%	11%	47	-0.5
●Pedro Álvarez 2010 · AA	23	47→46	56→60	45	42	240/296/430	190	320	24	4	32%	8%	103	+1.9	233/300/413	180	315	22	3	31%	9%	100	+1.7	238/310/455	217	291	31	4	29%	9%	108	+2.1
●Adam Duvall 2012 · A	23	44	59→70	44→45	45	240/306/460	220	280	27	4	25%	7%	115	+2.8	223/274/420	197	260	26	4	25%	6%	92	+1.2	230/290/515	285	247	44	3	29%	6%	121	+2.4