Lazaro Montes

RF Arkansas Travelers

Age 22 L/R 6'5" / 210 lbs AA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.157 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	A+/A2 orgs	542	.288/.403/.484	21	5	97	—	.238/.322/.394
2025	20	AA/A+SEA	583	.241/.356/.504	32	7	92	—	.199/.290/.413
2026	21	AAA/AASEA	542	.249/.370/.558	38	8	100	—	.201/.294/.430
2026	21	MLBSEA	59	.212/.305/.481	4	0	114	-0.4
2027PROJ14% MLB	22	MLBSEA	22	.215/.304/.439	1	0	110	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSEA	300	.220/.309/.448	16	3	114	0.8
2029PROJ61% MLB	24	MLBSEA	372	.223/.312/.453	20	4	116	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.157First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$5M2031Arb-2$8M2032Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV99

BB%64

Chase%48

Speed40

K%18

Whiff%8

Form.209/.301/.448 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .218/.305/.447

Career WAR6.4 WAR median (P10 -1.1 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 9% · didn't stick 41%

CompsMJ Melendez (age 23) · Mark Vientos (age 22) · Pedro Álvarez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†110

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .304 / .439

PA22

HR1

K%32

BB%9

BABIP272

ISO200

MLB%14%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.195

POWER

Barrel%

9017.9

Avg EV

6390.0

SPEED

Sprint

2626.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%37%▼▼41% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 33%

BB%11%▲12% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.239·.269 over 52 AB (60d) · proj .229

BABIP.275·.292 over 24 BIP (60d) · proj .275

SLASH.209/.301/.448·proj .218/.305/.447

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.157 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$8M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$8M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$33M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	223	176	50	13	5	10	35	74	9	3	1	284	427	585	1.012	301	421	33	16	433	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	156	131	42	9	1	7	21	39	4	1	0	321	429	565	994	244	412	25	13	436	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	146	110	31	10	1	6	33	37	2	1	2	282	455	555	1.010	273	368	25	23	439	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	233	192	50	8	0	8	35	69	3	4	3	260	383	427	810	167	356	30	15	362	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	309	256	79	13	2	13	43	59	5	1	0	309	418	527	945	219	349	19	14	410	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	282	240	51	7	2	14	35	86	4	4	2	212	323	433	756	221	259	30	12	334	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	301	250	67	12	5	18	48	83	1	3	1	268	387	572	959	304	327	28	16	412	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	59	52	11	2	0	4	7	24	0	0	0	212	305	481	786	269	292	41	12	344	114	+1	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.4
2026	21	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	203	175	48	13	0	13	25	63	2	3	1	274	371	571	943	297	350	31	12	407	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	339	278	65	11	1	25	54	103	6	5	3	234	370	550	920	317	265	30	16	399	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	59	52	11	2	0	4	7	24	0	0	0	212	305	481	786	269	292	41	12	344	119	+1	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	223	188	30	8	3	5	23	92	9	3	1	160	282	314	596	154	251	41	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	156	138	38	7	1	6	14	52	4	1	0	275	359	471	830	196	403	33	9	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	146	122	24	7	1	5	21	54	2	1	2	197	324	393	718	197	288	37	14	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	233	206	41	6	0	6	21	93	3	4	3	199	283	316	598	117	309	40	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	309	269	72	10	2	12	30	81	5	1	0	268	352	454	806	186	317	26	10	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	282	248	49	6	2	15	27	99	4	4	2	198	287	419	706	222	241	35	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	301	265	53	10	3	13	34	117	1	3	1	200	293	408	701	208	290	39	11	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	59	53	11	2	0	4	6	24	0	0	0	208	288	472	760	264	292	41	10	337	114	+1	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.4
2026	21	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	203	183	40	11	0	9	17	76	2	3	1	219	292	426	718	208	311	37	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	339	294	56	9	1	20	38	126	6	5	3	190	296	432	728	241	236	37	11	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	223	188	30	8	3	5	23	92	9	3	1	160	282	314	596	154	266	41	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	223	176	50	13	5	10	35	74	9	3	1	284	427	585	1.012	301	421	33	16	433	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	302	260	63	14	2	11	35	105	6	2	2	242	346	438	784	196	359	35	12	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	302	241	73	19	2	13	54	76	6	2	2	303	442	560	1.002	257	392	25	18	437	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	542	475	112	16	2	17	51	174	8	5	3	236	320	385	705	149	325	32	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	542	448	129	21	2	21	78	128	8	5	3	288	403	484	887	196	352	24	14	390	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	513	102	16	5	28	61	216	5	7	3	199	290	413	703	214	271	37	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	583	490	118	19	7	32	83	169	5	7	3	241	356	504	860	263	294	29	14	374	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	601	530	108	22	1	34	61	225	8	8	4	204	295	442	737	238	271	37	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	601	505	124	26	1	42	86	190	8	8	4	246	364	550	914	305	298	32	14	396	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	223	189	30	8	3	5	23	92	9	3	1	159	282	312	594	153	251	41	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	302	258	63	14	2	11	35	105	6	2	2	244	346	442	787	198	347	35	12	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	542	478	112	16	2	17	51	174	8	5	3	234	320	383	703	149	314	32	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	512	102	16	5	28	61	216	5	7	3	199	290	414	704	215	266	37	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	601	527	108	22	1	34	61	225	8	8	4	205	295	444	740	239	267	37	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	542	478	112	16	2	17	51	174	8	5	3	234	320	383	703	149	314	32	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	512	102	16	5	28	61	216	5	7	3	199	290	414	704	215	266	37	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	601	527	108	22	1	34	61	225	8	8	4	205	295	444	740	239	267	37	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	14%	648	570	124	24	2	34	65	213	8	7	2	218	307	447	754	229	275	33	10	331	110	+8	+1	-2	-7	+14	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	14%	22	20	4	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	215	304	439	743	224	272	32	9	327	110	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	49%	614	540	120	23	2	33	62	196	7	7	2	223	312	456	768	233	276	32	10	336	114	+10	+1	-2	-7	+13	1.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	61%	614	540	122	23	2	33	62	191	7	7	2	226	315	461	776	235	278	31	10	340	116	+12	+1	-1	-7	+13	1.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	66%	614	540	123	23	2	33	62	188	7	7	2	228	316	462	779	234	279	31	10	341	117	+12	+1	-1	-7	+13	1.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	69%	614	540	123	23	2	32	62	186	7	6	2	229	317	461	778	231	280	30	10	341	117	+12	+0	-1	-7	+13	1.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	68%	606	533	122	23	2	31	61	182	7	6	2	229	316	456	772	226	280	30	10	338	115	+11	+0	-1	-6	+13	1.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	68%	592	522	118	22	2	30	59	179	6	4	2	227	314	451	765	223	279	30	10	336	113	+9	+0	-2	-6	+13	1.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	67%	571	503	113	21	2	29	57	174	6	2	1	225	311	444	755	219	277	30	10	332	111	+7	+0	-3	-6	+12	1.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	66%	555	489	108	20	2	27	55	171	6	0	1	221	307	436	743	215	274	31	10	327	108	+5	-0	-3	-6	+12	0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	SEA	65%	536	473	103	19	1	26	53	167	5	0	1	217	302	426	728	209	271	31	10	321	103	+2	-0	-4	-6	+12	0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	SEA	65%	512	452	96	18	1	24	50	162	5	0	0	212	296	413	709	201	266	32	10	313	98	-1	+0	-5	-5	+11	-0.0
2038	33	MLB MLE	SEA	70%	476	424	87	16	1	21	45	153	4	0	0	205	288	396	685	191	260	32	9	304	92	-5	+0	-5	-5	+10	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	49%	300	263	58	11	1	16	30	96	4	3	1	220	309	448	757	228	273	32	10	332	114	+5	+0	-1	-3	+6	0.8
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	61%	372	327	73	14	1	20	38	116	4	4	1	223	312	453	765	229	275	31	10	335	116	+7	+0	-1	-4	+8	1.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	66%	406	357	80	15	1	21	41	124	5	4	1	225	314	454	768	228	276	31	10	337	117	+8	+0	-1	-4	+9	1.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	69%	421	370	84	16	1	22	43	127	5	4	1	227	314	453	767	226	277	30	10	336	117	+8	+0	-1	-5	+9	1.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	68%	414	364	83	16	1	21	42	124	5	4	1	226	313	447	761	221	277	30	10	334	115	+7	+0	-1	-4	+9	1.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	68%	403	356	79	15	1	20	40	122	4	3	1	224	311	443	754	218	276	30	10	331	113	+6	+0	-1	-4	+9	1.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	67%	380	335	75	14	1	19	38	116	4	1	1	222	309	436	745	214	274	31	10	328	111	+5	-0	-2	-4	+8	0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	66%	364	321	70	13	1	17	36	112	4	0	1	219	305	428	733	210	272	31	10	323	108	+3	-0	-2	-4	+8	0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	SEA	65%	349	309	66	12	1	16	34	109	3	0	0	215	300	418	718	204	268	31	10	317	103	+1	+0	-3	-4	+8	0.3
2037	32	MLB CTX	SEA	65%	331	293	61	11	1	15	32	105	3	0	0	209	294	405	699	196	263	32	10	310	98	-1	+0	-3	-4	+7	-0.0
2038	33	MLB CTX	SEA	70%	334	296	60	11	1	14	32	108	3	0	0	203	286	389	675	187	258	32	10	300	92	-3	+0	-4	-4	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4133	3643	800	150	11	205	413	1283	44	23	8	220	307	436	742	216	273	31	10	327	106	+49	+1	-19	-50	+90	7.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	126	24	2	32	65	202	7	4	1	220	307	436	743	216	275	31	10	327	106	+8	+0	-3	-8	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	8710	7658	1680	313	33	422	875	2812	105	66	29	219	308	434	742	215	281	32	10	325	106	+78	+2	-29	-76	+141	11.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	124	23	2	31	65	210	8	5	2	217	306	427	733	210	278	32	10	325	106	+8	+0	-3	-8	+14	1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 339 PAwOBA .388 → .316 (−72)K% 30.4% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.38%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	37.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.34%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	11.19%
HBP% /PA	1.77%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	1.60%
Singles /BIP	16.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.980	×1.042	15.03%
Doubles /BIP	6.29%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.980	×1.042	5.39%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.980	×1.042	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	11.91%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .388 → .316; ISO .317 → .258; BABIP .265 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 203 PAwOBA .396 → .314 (−82)K% 31.0% → 37.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.03%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	37.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.82%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.57%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.97%
Singles /BIP	19.64%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.982	×1.050	18.84%
Doubles /BIP	11.61%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.982	×1.050	9.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.982	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.61%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.53%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .396 → .314; ISO .297 → .219; BABIP .350 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 301 PAwOBA .402 → .306 (−96)K% 27.6% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.57%	÷0.957	×1.350	—	—	38.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.61%	÷0.999	×0.710	—	×1.027	11.39%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.28%
Singles /BIP	19.16%	÷1.001	×0.910	×1.005	×1.027	17.98%
Doubles /BIP	7.19%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.005	×1.027	6.45%
Triples /BIP	2.99%	÷1.150	×0.820	×1.005	×1.027	2.20%
Home runs /BIP	10.78%	÷1.036	×0.830	—	×1.027	8.86%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .402 → .306; ISO .304 → .223; BABIP .327 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 282 PAwOBA .328 → .301 (−27)K% 30.5% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.50%	÷1.061	×1.220	—	—	35.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.41%	÷0.950	×0.700	—	×1.050	9.60%
HBP% /PA	1.42%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	1.30%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.998	×0.920	×0.960	×1.050	16.89%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷0.914	×0.840	×0.960	×1.050	4.21%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷1.018	×0.940	×0.960	×1.050	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.800	×0.800	—	×1.050	9.54%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 104, K 112, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .328 → .301; ISO .221 → .224; BABIP .259 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AModesto Nuts · 309 PAwOBA .406 → .343 (−63)K% 19.1% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.09%	÷0.993	×1.360	—	—	26.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.92%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.030	9.79%
HBP% /PA	1.62%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.30%
Singles /BIP	25.89%	÷0.970	×0.920	×0.976	×1.030	24.68%
Doubles /BIP	6.60%	÷1.076	×0.830	×0.976	×1.030	5.12%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.976	×1.030	0.81%
Home runs /BIP	6.60%	÷0.897	×0.800	—	×1.030	6.06%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 94, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .406 → .343; ISO .219 → .189; BABIP .349 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 233 PAwOBA .352 → .269 (−83)K% 29.6% → 39.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.61%	÷1.003	×1.350	—	—	39.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.30%	÷1.082	×0.710	—	×1.042	9.10%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	1.09%
Singles /BIP	27.64%	÷0.992	×0.910	×0.950	×1.042	25.10%
Doubles /BIP	6.50%	÷1.040	×0.830	×0.950	×1.042	5.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.904	×0.820	×0.950	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.50%	÷1.175	×0.830	—	×1.042	4.79%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .352 → .269; ISO .167 → .118; BABIP .356 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 156 PAwOBA .423 → .365 (−58)K% 25.0% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.026	×1.360	—	—	33.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.82%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×1.045	9.12%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.09%
Singles /BIP	27.17%	÷0.974	×0.920	×1.045	×1.045	28.05%
Doubles /BIP	9.78%	÷1.050	×0.830	×1.045	×1.045	8.45%
Triples /BIP	1.09%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.045	×1.045	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	7.61%	÷0.883	×0.800	—	×1.045	7.21%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .423 → .365; ISO .244 → .212; BABIP .412 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Mariners · 146 PAwOBA .432 → .309 (−122)K% 25.3% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.34%	÷0.992	×1.440	—	—	36.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.60%	÷0.989	×0.620	—	×1.008	14.28%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.99%
Singles /BIP	19.18%	÷0.987	×0.820	×1.006	×1.008	16.14%
Doubles /BIP	13.70%	÷0.993	×0.720	×1.006	×1.008	10.06%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.006	×1.008	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.22%	÷0.945	×0.780	—	×1.008	6.83%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .432 → .309; ISO .273 → .207; BABIP .368 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
#2Rob Deer'84-'96 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,512 PA	6.8	4,512	230	43	218*	322*	466*	-51	+17	16.9	16.3
/162	664	34	6	-7.4	+2.5	2.5	pk7: 16
#3Joey Gallolast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,373 PA	5.1	3,373	207	32	195	320	459	-29	-11	13.5	14.1
/162	664	41	6	-5.6	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 15
#4Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	5.7	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
/162	664	39	3	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.3	4,155	211	25	224	307	446	-25	-27	13.9	12.4
/162	664	34	4	-4.0	-4.3	2.2	pk7: 11
#5Pete Incaviglia'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,677 PA	7.0	4,677	206	33	242*	307*	466*	-56	-19	9.9	10.5
/162	664	29	5	-8.0	-2.7	1.4	pk7: 11
#6Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lazaro Montes (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	216/305/443	227	275	8	2	33%	10%	110	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	40→48	61→60	40→50	46	223/295/441	219	278	30	5	32%	9%	105	+1.7	225/305/410	185	278	22	6	26%	10%	101	+1.4	217/299/394	178	268	20	5	26%	10%	96	+1.0
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	43→51	56→60	38→30	37	228/276/415	187	306	25	3	34%	6%	92	+0.7	246/303/435	189	333	25	2	32%	7%	107	+1.8	247/307/448	201	309	26	1	28%	7%	110	+1.8
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	48	57→65	42→45	45	247/310/447	200	324	24	4	31%	8%	112	+2.2	234/300/430	196	305	26	3	31%	8%	104	+1.6	236/300/460	224	282	33	4	29%	8%	112	+2.0
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/433	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	112	+2.2	218/274/334	116	262	12	6	21%	7%	72	-0.7	189/233/258	68	230	4	5	19%	5%	35	-0.8
★Austin Riley 2020 · MLB	23	44→54	60→65	40→45	38	239/289/451	212	311	29	2	33%	6%	105	+1.7	265/325/486	221	325	29	2	27%	7%	126	+3.2	281/350/516	235	333	31	1	25%	8%	143	+5.2
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	46→47	59→60	43→40	48	242/325/451	209	307	28	4	30%	9%	118	+2.7	235/309/436	201	288	27	4	28%	9%	109	+2.0	231/307/434	204	276	28	2	27%	9%	108	+1.3
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2015 · MLB	24	48→56	57→60	42→45	42	250/309/453	203	317	25	4	29%	7%	113	+2.3	223/284/402	179	290	23	3	31%	7%	92	+0.7	217/296/406	188	293	24	3	33%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→46	56→60	38→45	48	221/315/416	195	294	24	3	32%	10%	107	+1.8	229/303/389	160	305	18	7	29%	8%	96	+1.0	227/297/375	148	293	16	7	27%	7%	88	+0.3
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	43→45	57→60	45→40	51	229/318/434	206	277	25	6	27%	10%	112	+2.2	220/302/392	172	276	20	3	27%	10%	96	+1.0	227/317/425	198	291	25	1	30%	10%	110	+2.2
✕Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	45→54	59→60	39→45	40	244/281/444	200	280	28	5	25%	5%	101	+1.4	257/288/428	171	301	22	5	22%	4%	99	+1.2	259/286/416	157	305	19	4	22%	3%	95	+0.7
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	56→60	45→50	45	211/297/402	191	273	24	6	31%	9%	97	+1.1	243/312/420	177	306	20	9	26%	7%	106	+1.8	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
★Chris Davis 2008 · AA	22	44→54	61→70	43→40	34	237/279/458	221	322	30	4	36%	5%	103	+1.6	257/303/464	207	339	26	5	31%	6%	113	+2.3	238/326/500	263	291	37	3	31%	10%	131	+3.7
●Kyle Manzardo 2023 · AA	23	50→43	59→60	44→40	50	262/330/473	212	293	26	4	21%	8%	125	+3.2	229/306/419	190	270	22	3	24%	9%	104	+1.6	223/305/412	189	273	24	2	27%	9%	102	+1.3
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2024 · MLB	24	45→48	57→55	43→45	49	240/314/434	193	269	26	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	233/291/394	161	295	22	4	28%	7%	93	+0.8	226/283/371	144	289	20	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1
●Tyler Soderstrom 2023 · AAA	21	46→52	55→60	44→40	38	238/286/425	187	315	24	3	32%	6%	97	+1.1	231/289/416	185	291	24	4	29%	7%	97	+1.1	249/327/456	208	287	26	4	23%	9%	120	+2.2
●Gleyber Torres 2020 · MLB	23	50→55	60	45→50	48	269/328/483	214	305	30	7	23%	8%	126	+3.2	258/325/424	166	303	20	10	21%	9%	112	+2.2	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Chris Carter 2006 · AA	23	48→58	56→55	37→40	48	252/307/441	189	265	25	2	17%	6%	109	+2.0	268/322/430	162	297	19	5	16%	7%	112	+2.2	275/327/435	160	306	18	4	16%	7%	112	+2.2
✕Travis Snider 2010 · MLB	22	52→55	53→55	40→50	45	253/320/432	179	346	20	4	31%	8%	112	+2.2	255/309/419	164	324	18	12	26%	7%	104	+1.6	258/310/414	156	321	17	15	24%	7%	103	+1.1
✕Juan Yepez 2022 · AAA	24	44→49	57→60	39→45	47	237/307/438	201	277	26	4	25%	8%	109	+2.0	234/292/406	172	275	21	3	23%	7%	95	+1.0	232/290/385	153	271	19	3	22%	7%	88	+0.4
●Wily Mo Peña 2005 · MLB	23	46→50	63→65	47→40	41	251/307/479	228	304	34	9	30%	6%	118	+2.7	262/317/471	209	344	28	5	31%	6%	120	+2.8	263/320/462	199	352	26	2	31%	6%	120	+1.6

Lazaro Montes

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps