Juan Yepez

1B Rochester Red Wings
Age 29 R/R 6'0" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAArb-3FA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202325AAA/INTL2 orgs450.246/.319/.3889369—.228/.283/.359
202325MLBSTL65.183/.246/.3002058-0.9
202426AAAWSH319.263/.361/.43811378—.218/.294/.347
202426MLBWSH249.283/.339/.42962113-0.5
202527AAA/A+/INTL2 orgs386.233/.303/.38512067—.190/.242/.305
202628No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB29MLBWSH22.251/.311/.39510980.0
2028PROJ27% MLB30MLBWSH65.247/.307/.3862094-0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.4  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service5.000First FA2028
2027Arb-3$0.7M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024
Barrel%46
Bat Spd42
xwOBA40
Speed33
Avg EV10
CompsRangel Ravelo (age 29) · Robbie Tenerowicz (age 29) · Balbino Fuenmayor (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 10198vR 89
AVG/OBP/SLG.251 / .311 / .395
PA22
HR1
K%18
BB%9
BABIP281
ISO200
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-0BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -4.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +4.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.1-0.12728
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024
CONTACT55
xAVG
280.234
POWER45
Barrel%
467.6
Avg EV
1085.8
Bat Spd
4270.5
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
3326.7
Platoon Splits2024 · 249 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
88
161
—
wRC+
126
105
◀◀L
wOBA
355
324
◀L
ISO
152
143
◀L
BABIP
355
302
◀L
K%
18.2%
16.2%
▶R
BB%
8.0%
6.8%
◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2022
Service   5.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-3$0.7M+0.0$0.0M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201517 ROKDanville Braves — 228201 601624 22551 33 299371458828 159384 2410 362 70 — — — — — —
201618 ARome Braves — 10092 24501 7231 00 261320348668 87338 237 304 54 — — — — — —
201719 APeoria Chiefs — 480446 1182918 271043 102 265311388699 123325 226 310 60 — — — — — —
201820 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 242226 471202 12523 21 208257288545 80262 215 248 28 — — — — — —
201820 APeoria Chiefs — 10694 391021 10140 41 4154715961.067 181469 139 459 164 — — — — — —
201921 AASpringfield Cardinals — 5952 12202 5140 00 231298385683 154263 248 296 60 — — — — — —
201921 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 115102 28404 10212 10 275351431782 157312 189 348 83 — — — — — —
201921 APeoria Chiefs — 10188 25704 11241 21 284370500870 216344 2411 380 75 — — — — — —
202123 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 357304 8825022 42696 13 289385589974 299304 1912 417 112 — — — — — —
202123 AASpringfield Cardinals — 7763 17405 9133 00 270377571948 302267 1712 406 109 — — — — — —
202123 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 10386 26807 12182 10 3024006401.040 337297 1712 433 179 — — — — — —
202224 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 274253 6413012 16611 00 253300447747 194283 226 324 109 +3 +0 -7 -6 +6 -0.3
202224 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 208188 529016 17462 00 277343580923 303283 228 397 84 — — — — — —
202224 INTLTiburones de La Guaira — 3529 3010 472 00 103257172430 69136 2011 220 35 — — — — — —
202325 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 6560 11102 4201 01 183246300546 117237 316 249 58 -3 -0 -2 -6 +1 -0.9
202325 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 384341 872139 33734 22 255328413742 158294 199 326 74 — — — — — —
202325 INTLCangrejeros de Santurce — 6658 11110 5131 10 190266241507 52234 208 231 43 — — — — — —
202426 MLBWashington Nationals — 249226 641506 18421 21 283339429768 146320 177 337 113 +4 +0 -4 -10 +5 -0.5
202426 AAARochester Red Wings — 319274 7215011 40452 32 263361438799 175276 1413 355 78 — — — — — —
202527 AAARochester Red Wings — 235212 47804 21290 00 222292316608 94238 129 276 40 — — — — — —
202527 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks — 4942 9304 561 00 214312571884 357152 1210 372 89 — — — — — —
202527 INTLCardenales de Lara — 10294 25604 8120 00 266324457781 191269 128 345 120 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 588539 13929020 381233 22 258310423733 165295 216 321 104 +3 -0 -12 -21 +13 -1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201517 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 228208 471213 15781 33 226281337618 111326 347 271 70 — — — — — —
201618 A MLERome Braves — 10094 21401 5321 00 223270298568 74328 325 248 54 — — — — — —
201719 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 480453 1022416 201353 102 225263322585 97299 284 257 60 — — — — — —
201820 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 242229 411102 9713 21 179220253473 74250 294 210 28 — — — — — —
201820 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 10697 36921 7180 41 371413536950 165437 177 411 164 — — — — — —
201921 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 5953 12202 4170 00 226281377658 151249 297 257 60 — — — — — —
201921 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 115104 25404 8292 10 240307394701 154283 257 291 83 — — — — — —
201921 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 10192 20503 7321 21 217280370650 152283 327 279 75 — — — — — —
202123 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 357319 7621017 28876 13 238312464776 226264 248 334 112 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 7768 15304 6163 00 221312441753 221227 218 329 109 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 274253 6412013 16611 00 253300455755 202283 226 330 109 +3 +0 -7 -6 +6 -0.3
202224 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 208193 417011 12572 00 212266420685 207237 276 292 84 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 6560 11102 4201 01 183246300546 117237 316 254 58 -3 -0 -2 -6 +1 -0.9
202325 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 384351 801937 23894 22 228283359642 131271 236 278 74 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 249226 641506 18421 21 283339429768 146320 177 336 113 +4 +0 -4 -10 +5 -0.5
202426 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 319285 621308 29562 32 218294347642 130237 189 283 78 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 235218 42703 15340 00 193245266511 73210 146 227 40 — — — — — —
202527 A+ MLEWilmington Blue Rocks — 4945 8204 281 00 178229489718 311120 164 300 89 — — — — — —
201517 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 228208 471213 15781 33 226281337618 111336 347 271 70 — — — — — —
201517 ROK RAWDanville Braves — 228201 601624 22551 33 299371458828 159384 2410 362 70 — — — — — —
201618 A MLERome Braves — 10094 21401 5321 00 223270298568 74328 325 248 54 — — — — — —
201618 A RAWRome Braves — 10092 24501 7231 00 261320348668 87338 237 304 54 — — — — — —
201719 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 480453 1022416 201353 102 225263322585 97304 284 257 60 — — — — — —
201719 A RAWPeoria Chiefs — 480446 1182918 271043 102 265311388699 123325 226 310 60 — — — — — —
201820 A+ MLE2 teams — 348326 782123 16903 62 239281344625 104319 265 271 70 — — — — — —
201820 A+ RAW2 teams — 348320 862223 22663 62 269322378700 109328 196 312 70 — — — — — —
201921 A+ MLE3 teams — 275250 551008 18783 31 220280356636 136281 287 279 75 — — — — — —
201921 A+ RAW3 teams — 275242 6513010 26593 31 269347446793 178312 219 349 75 — — — — — —
202123 AAA MLE3 teams — 537476 11229026 4312711 23 235313460773 225261 248 333 112 — — — — — —
202123 AAA RAW3 teams — 537453 13137034 6310011 23 289387596983 307298 1912 418 112 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLE3 teams — 517477 11321025 301265 00 237289438727 201266 246 313 98 -1 +0 -7 -6 +11 -0.2
202224 MLB RAW3 teams — 517470 11922128 371145 00 253314483797 230273 227 347 98 -1 +0 -7 -6 +11 -0.2
202325 AAA MLE3 teams — 515470 10423310 311256 33 221278347625 126274 246 275 72 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW3 teams — 515459 10923411 421066 33 237310377687 139280 218 305 72 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 568511 12628014 47983 53 247314384697 137277 178 306 93 — — — — — —
202426 AAA RAW2 teams — 568500 13630017 58873 53 272351434785 162296 1510 347 93 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE3 teams — 386359 671209 23571 00 187238295533 109196 156 240 48 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAW3 teams — 386348 8117012 34471 00 233303385688 152236 129 307 48 — — — — — —
201517 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 228210 471213 15781 33 224281333615 110326 347 271 70 — — — — — —
201618 A MLERome Braves — 10094 21401 5321 00 223270298568 74328 325 248 54 — — — — — —
201719 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 480454 1022416 201353 102 225263322584 97299 284 257 60 — — — — — —
201820 A+ MLE2 teams — 348326 782123 16903 62 239281344625 104307 265 271 70 — — — — — —
201921 A+ MLE3 teams — 275252 551008 18783 31 218280353634 135276 287 279 75 — — — — — —
202123 AAA MLE3 teams — 537478 11229026 4312711 23 234313458771 224257 248 333 112 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLE3 teams — 517477 11321025 301265 00 237289438727 201263 246 313 98 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE3 teams — 515473 10423310 311256 33 220278345623 125266 246 275 72 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 568513 12628014 47983 53 246314382696 136274 178 306 93 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE3 teams — 386359 671209 23571 00 187238295533 109194 156 240 48 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 568513 12628014 47983 53 246314382696 136274 178 306 93 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE3 teams — 386359 671209 23571 00 187238295533 109194 156 240 48 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEWSH 10% 334304 761519 25592 31 250311395705 145281 187 313 98 -1 +0 -0 -6 +7 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXWSH 10% 2220 5101 240 00 251311395706 144281 189 314 98 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEWSH 27% 237217 531106 17421 10 246306386692 139278 187 308 94 -2 +0 -2 -4 +5 -0.3
202830 MLB CTXWSH 27% 6560 15302 5120 00 247307386693 139278 188 308 94 -0 +0 -1 -1 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 653599 15432022 431353 22 257310421731 164294 217 320 81 +2 -0 -13 -22 +14 -2.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 15432022 431343 22 258312423734 164295 217 320 81 +2 -0 -13 -22 +14 -1.9
Career— MLE — 44144044 9292058117 282102739 3518 230286371658 141276 236 288 81 +1 -0 -14 -29 +23 -2.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650596 13630117 421516 53 228286367654 139274 236 288 81 +0 -0 -9 -18 +14 -1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 235 PAwOBA .272 → .227 (−45)K% 12.3% → 14.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.34%÷1.028×1.200——14.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.94%÷0.978×0.690—×1.0036.32%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP19.13%÷0.987×0.930×0.961×1.00317.37%
Doubles /BIP4.37%÷1.000×0.830×0.961×1.0033.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.961×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP2.19%÷0.960×0.700—×1.0031.60%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .272 → .227; ISO .094 → .073; BABIP .238 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 49 PAwOBA .362 → .300 (−62)K% 12.2% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.24%÷0.960×1.310——16.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.16%÷0.986×0.600—×0.9584.76%
HBP% /PA2.04%—×0.770—×0.9581.51%
Singles /BIP5.56%÷1.004×0.870—×0.9584.61%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.948×0.780—×0.9586.57%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850—×0.9580.00%
Home runs /BIP11.11%÷0.967×0.880—×0.9589.68%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .362 → .300; ISO .357 → .320; BABIP .152 → .120. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 319 PAwOBA .349 → .283 (−66)K% 14.1% → 17.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.11%÷0.958×1.200——17.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.54%÷0.969×0.690—×1.0189.09%
HBP% /PA0.63%—×0.940—×1.0180.60%
Singles /BIP20.09%÷1.029×0.930×0.958×1.01817.70%
Doubles /BIP6.55%÷0.962×0.830×0.958×1.0185.51%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.958×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP4.80%÷0.986×0.700—×1.0183.47%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .349 → .283; ISO .175 → .135; BABIP .276 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 384 PAwOBA .323 → .278 (−45)K% 19.0% → 23.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.01%÷0.990×1.200——23.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.59%÷1.010×0.690—×1.0336.06%
HBP% /PA1.04%—×0.940—×1.0331.01%
Singles /BIP20.15%÷1.040×0.930×1.019×1.03318.96%
Doubles /BIP7.84%÷0.969×0.830×1.019×1.0337.07%
Triples /BIP1.12%÷1.150×0.970×1.019×1.0330.99%
Home runs /BIP3.36%÷0.955×0.700—×1.0332.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .323 → .278; ISO .158 → .131; BABIP .294 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 208 PAwOBA .387 → .292 (−95)K% 22.1% → 27.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.12%÷0.976×1.200——27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.17%÷1.053×0.690—×1.0485.61%
HBP% /PA0.96%—×0.940—×1.0480.95%
Singles /BIP19.01%÷1.051×0.930×0.953×1.04816.81%
Doubles /BIP6.34%÷1.019×0.830×0.953×1.0485.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.953×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP11.27%÷1.048×0.700—×1.0487.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .387 → .292; ISO .303 → .211; BABIP .283 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 357 PAwOBA .409 → .334 (−75)K% 19.3% → 24.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.33%÷0.955×1.200——24.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.48%÷1.056×0.690—×1.0507.88%
HBP% /PA1.68%—×0.940—×1.0501.66%
Singles /BIP17.45%÷1.016×0.930×0.969×1.05016.25%
Doubles /BIP10.64%÷1.029×0.830×0.969×1.0508.73%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×0.969×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP9.36%÷0.949×0.700—×1.0507.25%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .409 → .334; ISO .299 → .237; BABIP .304 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 77 PAwOBA .395 → .329 (−66)K% 16.9% → 21.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.88%÷0.975×1.220——21.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.69%÷1.020×0.690—×1.0278.12%
HBP% /PA3.90%—×0.850—×1.0273.40%
Singles /BIP16.00%÷1.003×0.940×0.955×1.02714.71%
Doubles /BIP8.00%÷1.107×0.870×0.955×1.0276.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.973×0.920×0.955×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP10.00%÷0.990×0.780—×1.0278.09%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .395 → .329; ISO .302 → .251; BABIP .267 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 115 PAwOBA .339 → .291 (−48)K% 18.3% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.26%÷1.014×1.420——25.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷0.991×0.750—×1.0276.76%
HBP% /PA1.74%—×0.930—×1.0271.66%
Singles /BIP24.69%÷1.048×0.920—×1.02722.26%
Doubles /BIP4.94%÷1.047×0.960—×1.0274.65%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.810—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP4.94%÷0.912×0.880—×1.0274.89%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .339 → .291; ISO .157 → .144; BABIP .312 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .