Dominic Smith

1B Atlanta Braves

Age 32 L/L 5'11" / 224 lbs MLB Svc 7.878 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAATB	89	.262/.337/.375	2	1	53	—	.207/.270/.268
2024	29	MLBCIN	307	.233/.313/.378	6	1	95	-0.4
2025	30	AAAScranton/Wilk…	189	.255/.339/.448	8	4	63	—	.202/.258/.329
2025	30	MLBSF	225	.284/.339/.417	5	2	115	-0.2
2026	31	MLBATL	300	.253/.316/.383	9	0	94	-0.1
2027PROJ	32	MLBATL	254	.249/.313/.392	7	2	99	0.2
2028PROJ	33	MLBATL	224	.240/.303/.372	6	0	90	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.878First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA47

Barrel%42

Avg EV40

Speed22

Bat Spd20

CompsFelix Perez (age 32) · Aaron Guiel (age 32) · Emmanuel Valdez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7599vR 108

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .313 / .392

PA254

HR7

K%19

BB%7

BABIP284

ISO143

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

290.234

POWER

Barrel%

427.1

Avg EV

4088.3

Bat Spd

2068.1

SPEED

Sprint

2226.1

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 593 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

516

—

wRC+

115

▶▶R

wOBA

275

339

▶▶R

ISO

125

155

▶▶R

BABIP

293

323

▶R

24.7%

20.2%

▶▶R

BB%

5.2%

7.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.878 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.8M
Totals		$2M		$0.8M	-$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	206	173	52	13	1	3	26	37	4	2	4	301	404	439	843	139	360	18	13	375	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	518	461	125	26	1	1	51	77	2	5	4	271	346	338	685	67	321	15	10	313	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	497	456	139	33	0	6	35	75	2	2	1	305	357	417	774	112	351	15	7	345	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	60	47	17	4	0	1	12	10	0	0	0	362	492	511	1.002	149	432	17	20	441	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	542	484	146	29	2	14	50	74	3	2	1	302	371	457	827	155	329	14	9	365	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	New York Mets	—	183	167	33	6	0	9	14	49	1	0	0	198	264	395	659	198	218	27	8	291	86	-3	+0	-6	-12	+4	-1.7
2017	22	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	500	457	151	34	2	16	39	87	3	1	1	330	387	519	905	188	380	17	8	398	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	New York Mets	—	149	143	32	11	1	5	4	47	2	0	0	224	255	420	675	196	297	32	3	295	92	-1	+0	-5	-10	+3	-1.3
2018	23	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	375	337	87	21	1	6	34	76	2	3	0	258	330	380	710	122	315	20	9	319	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	32	30	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	133	188	167	354	33	160	16	6	169	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	197	177	50	10	0	11	19	44	1	1	2	282	355	525	881	243	320	22	10	386	152	+12	-1	-4	-2	+4	1.0
2020	25	MLB	New York Mets	—	199	177	56	21	1	10	14	45	5	0	0	316	383	616	998	299	368	23	7	425	182	+19	+0	-6	-4	+4	1.4
2021	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	493	446	109	20	0	11	32	112	9	2	1	244	308	363	671	119	298	23	6	300	92	-5	+0	-11	-5	+11	-1.0
2022	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	152	134	26	10	1	0	12	37	4	0	0	194	280	284	564	90	263	24	8	259	67	-6	+0	+1	-7	+3	-1.0
2022	27	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	248	218	62	11	0	10	25	39	4	4	1	284	368	472	841	188	306	16	10	373	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	586	527	134	21	1	12	47	91	10	1	1	254	327	366	693	112	286	16	8	314	98	-1	-0	-4	-10	+13	-0.4
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	307	275	64	22	0	6	28	76	4	1	1	233	313	378	691	145	301	25	9	312	95	-2	-0	-1	-7	+7	-0.4
2024	29	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	89	80	21	3	0	2	8	26	1	1	0	263	337	375	712	112	365	29	9	324	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	225	204	58	12	0	5	15	42	2	2	0	284	339	417	756	132	329	19	7	333	115	+4	+0	-4	-7	+5	-0.2
2025	30	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	189	165	42	6	1	8	20	30	1	4	0	255	339	448	787	194	262	16	11	344	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	300	269	68	6	1	9	23	48	2	0	0	253	316	383	699	130	272	16	8	309	94	-2	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2791	2519	630	139	5	78	208	591	40	7	5	250	317	402	719	152	295	21	7	320	103	+9	-1	-42	-71	+60	-4.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	206	186	42	10	1	2	13	53	4	2	4	226	291	323	613	97	288	26	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	518	480	122	24	1	1	32	102	2	5	4	254	304	315	618	60	314	20	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	497	468	126	31	0	4	23	107	2	2	1	269	306	361	667	92	334	22	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	542	498	141	25	2	11	36	85	3	2	1	283	335	408	743	124	317	16	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	183	167	33	6	0	9	14	49	1	0	0	198	264	395	659	198	218	27	8	296	86	-3	+0	-6	-12	+4	-1.7
2017	22	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	500	470	135	29	2	10	26	118	3	1	1	287	329	421	750	134	363	24	5	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	149	143	33	12	1	5	4	47	2	0	0	231	262	434	695	203	297	32	3	304	92	-1	+0	-5	-10	+3	-1.3
2018	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	375	347	77	18	1	5	24	99	2	3	0	222	276	323	599	101	291	26	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	197	177	52	11	0	11	19	44	1	1	2	294	365	542	908	249	320	22	10	393	152	+12	-1	-4	-2	+4	1.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	199	177	58	22	1	10	14	45	5	0	0	328	393	633	1.026	305	368	23	7	437	182	+19	+0	-6	-4	+4	1.4
2021	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	493	448	112	21	0	11	30	112	9	2	1	250	310	371	681	121	298	23	6	305	92	-5	+0	-11	-5	+11	-1.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	152	134	27	11	1	0	12	37	4	0	0	201	287	299	585	97	263	24	8	267	67	-6	+0	+1	-7	+3	-1.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	248	227	54	9	0	7	16	49	4	4	1	238	300	370	670	132	273	20	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	586	528	134	21	1	12	46	91	10	1	1	254	325	366	691	112	286	16	8	313	98	-1	-0	-4	-10	+13	-0.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	307	275	64	22	0	6	28	76	4	1	1	233	313	378	691	145	301	25	9	308	95	-2	-0	-1	-7	+7	-0.4
2024	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	89	82	17	2	0	1	6	31	1	1	0	207	270	268	538	61	317	35	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	225	204	59	12	0	5	15	42	2	2	0	289	344	422	765	132	329	19	7	339	115	+4	+0	-4	-7	+5	-0.2
2025	30	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	189	173	35	5	1	5	12	37	1	4	0	202	258	329	588	127	219	20	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	300	270	68	6	1	9	22	48	2	0	0	252	313	381	694	130	272	16	7	306	94	-2	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.1
2013	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	206	186	42	10	1	2	13	53	4	2	4	226	291	323	613	97	299	26	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	206	173	52	13	1	3	26	37	4	2	4	301	404	439	843	139	360	18	13	375	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	518	480	122	24	1	1	32	102	2	5	4	254	304	315	618	60	318	20	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	518	461	125	26	1	1	51	77	2	5	4	271	346	338	685	67	321	15	10	313	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	557	524	142	35	0	5	26	120	2	2	1	271	308	366	674	95	339	22	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	557	503	156	37	0	7	47	85	2	2	1	310	371	425	797	115	358	15	8	355	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	542	498	141	25	2	11	36	85	3	2	1	283	335	408	743	124	319	16	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	Binghamton Mets	—	542	484	146	29	2	14	50	74	3	2	1	302	371	457	827	155	329	14	9	365	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	683	637	169	35	2	19	40	168	4	1	1	265	313	416	729	151	332	25	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	683	624	184	40	2	25	53	136	4	1	1	295	354	486	839	191	342	20	8	370	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	556	520	116	32	2	10	30	155	4	3	0	223	271	350	621	127	297	28	5	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	556	510	123	33	2	11	40	128	4	3	0	241	301	378	680	137	300	23	7	304	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	197	177	52	11	0	11	19	44	1	1	2	294	365	542	908	249	336	22	10	393	152	+12	-1	-4	-2	+4	1.0
2019	24	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	197	177	50	10	0	11	19	44	1	1	2	282	355	525	881	243	320	22	10	386	152	+12	-1	-4	-2	+4	1.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	199	177	58	22	1	10	14	45	5	0	0	328	393	633	1.026	305	384	23	7	437	182	+19	+0	-6	-4	+4	1.4
2020	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	199	177	56	21	1	10	14	45	5	0	0	316	383	616	998	299	368	23	7	425	182	+19	+0	-6	-4	+4	1.4
2021	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	493	448	112	21	0	11	30	112	9	2	1	250	310	371	681	121	305	23	6	305	92	-5	+0	-11	-5	+11	-1.0
2021	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	493	446	109	20	0	11	32	112	9	2	1	244	308	363	671	119	298	23	6	300	92	-5	+0	-11	-5	+11	-1.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	400	361	82	20	1	7	28	86	8	4	1	227	297	346	643	119	277	22	7	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	400	352	88	21	1	10	37	76	8	4	1	250	335	401	736	151	290	19	9	329	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	586	528	134	21	1	12	46	91	10	1	1	254	325	366	691	112	286	16	8	313	98	-1	-0	-4	-10	+13	-0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	586	527	134	21	1	12	47	91	10	1	1	254	327	366	693	112	286	16	8	314	98	-1	-0	-4	-10	+13	-0.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	396	357	82	25	0	7	34	107	5	2	1	230	306	359	664	129	309	27	9	294	85	-7	+0	-1	-7	+9	-0.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	396	355	85	25	0	8	36	102	5	2	1	239	318	377	696	138	314	26	9	315	85	-7	+0	-1	-7	+9	-0.7
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	414	377	95	17	1	11	27	79	3	6	0	252	307	390	697	138	286	19	7	303	91	-4	+1	-4	-7	+9	-0.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	414	369	100	18	1	13	35	72	3	6	0	271	339	431	770	160	299	17	8	338	91	-4	+1	-4	-7	+9	-0.6
2026	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	300	270	68	6	1	9	22	48	2	0	0	252	313	381	694	130	271	16	7	306	94	-2	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.1
2026	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	300	269	68	6	1	9	23	48	2	0	0	253	316	383	699	130	272	16	8	309	94	-2	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.1
2013	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	206	187	42	10	1	2	13	53	4	2	4	225	291	321	611	96	288	26	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	518	479	122	24	1	1	32	102	2	5	4	255	304	315	619	61	314	20	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	557	524	142	35	0	5	26	120	2	2	1	271	308	366	674	95	334	22	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	542	498	141	25	2	11	36	85	3	2	1	283	335	408	743	124	317	16	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	683	634	169	35	2	19	40	168	4	1	1	267	313	418	731	151	324	25	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	556	517	116	32	2	10	30	155	4	3	0	224	271	352	623	128	293	28	5	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	197	175	52	11	0	11	19	44	1	1	2	297	365	549	914	251	320	22	10	393	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	199	178	58	22	1	10	14	45	5	0	0	326	393	629	1.022	303	368	23	7	437	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	493	451	112	21	0	11	30	112	9	2	1	248	310	368	678	120	298	23	6	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	400	361	82	20	1	7	28	86	8	4	1	227	297	346	643	119	269	22	7	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	586	525	134	21	1	12	46	91	10	1	1	255	325	368	693	112	286	16	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	396	354	82	25	0	7	34	107	5	2	1	232	306	362	667	130	304	27	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	414	381	95	17	1	11	27	79	3	6	0	249	307	386	693	136	279	19	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	300	273	68	6	1	9	22	48	2	0	0	249	313	377	690	128	272	16	7	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	396	354	82	25	0	7	34	107	5	2	1	232	306	362	667	130	304	27	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	414	381	95	17	1	11	27	79	3	6	0	249	307	386	693	136	279	19	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	300	273	68	6	1	9	22	48	2	0	0	249	313	377	690	128	272	16	7	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	365	331	81	14	1	10	28	70	3	3	1	249	313	392	705	143	284	19	8	314	99	-1	+0	+2	-7	+8	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	254	231	57	10	1	7	19	49	2	2	1	249	313	392	705	143	284	19	7	314	99	-0	+0	+1	-5	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	224	203	49	8	1	6	17	44	2	0	0	240	303	372	675	132	277	20	8	302	90	-3	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	224	203	49	8	1	6	17	44	2	0	0	240	303	372	675	132	277	20	8	302	90	-3	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3015	2722	679	147	6	84	225	635	42	7	5	249	316	400	717	151	294	21	7	318	94	+6	-1	-45	-75	+65	-5.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	146	32	1	18	49	137	9	2	1	249	316	399	715	150	293	21	8	318	94	+1	-0	-10	-16	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6525	5974	1521	322	15	139	433	1388	66	33	18	255	312	383	695	129	307	21	7	307	94	+6	-1	-44	-79	+71	-4.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	151	32	1	14	43	138	7	3	2	254	312	382	693	128	306	21	7	307	94	+1	-0	-9	-16	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 189 PAwOBA .339 → .261 (−78)K% 15.9% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.87%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	19.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.05%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.26%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.48%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.972	×0.972	17.42%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.972	×0.972	3.41%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷0.944	×0.970	×0.972	×0.972	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	5.93%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .339 → .261; ISO .194 → .137; BABIP .262 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 89 PAwOBA .315 → .246 (−69)K% 29.2% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.21%	÷1.014	×1.200	—	—	34.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.99%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.28%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.04%
Singles /BIP	29.63%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.966	×0.982	26.52%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.966	×0.982	4.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.966	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.40%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .315 → .246; ISO .113 → .075; BABIP .365 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 248 PAwOBA .362 → .295 (−66)K% 15.7% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.73%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	19.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.27%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.30%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.52%
Singles /BIP	22.91%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	21.29%
Doubles /BIP	6.15%	÷0.951	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	5.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.59%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .362 → .295; ISO .188 → .136; BABIP .306 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALas Vegas 51s · 375 PAwOBA .312 → .263 (−50)K% 20.3% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.27%	÷0.986	×1.290	—	—	26.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.07%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.51%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.55%
Singles /BIP	22.61%	÷0.992	×0.900	×0.982	×1.050	21.15%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷0.918	×0.810	×0.982	×1.050	7.32%
Triples /BIP	0.38%	÷0.959	×0.810	×0.982	×1.050	0.33%
Home runs /BIP	2.30%	÷1.009	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.87%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 92, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .312 → .263; ISO .122 → .100; BABIP .315 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALas Vegas 51s · 500 PAwOBA .386 → .327 (−59)K% 17.4% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.40%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	23.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.20%	÷1.015	×0.710	—	×1.050	5.29%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.62%
Singles /BIP	26.76%	÷0.994	×0.900	×1.050	×1.050	26.71%
Doubles /BIP	9.19%	÷0.998	×0.810	×1.050	×1.050	8.22%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷1.111	×0.810	×1.050	×1.050	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	4.32%	÷1.209	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.93%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 122, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .386 → .327; ISO .188 → .138; BABIP .380 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABinghamton Mets · 542 PAwOBA .358 → .325 (−33)K% 13.7% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.65%	÷1.062	×1.220	—	—	15.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.04%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.67%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.49%
Singles /BIP	24.63%	÷1.034	×0.970	×1.017	×1.050	24.68%
Doubles /BIP	7.07%	÷1.070	×0.860	×1.017	×1.050	6.07%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷0.956	×0.950	×1.017	×1.050	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	3.41%	÷1.085	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.58%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 107, 2B 114, 3B 91, K 112, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .358 → .325; ISO .155 → .128; BABIP .329 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+St. Lucie Mets · 497 PAwOBA .335 → .295 (−39)K% 15.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.09%	÷0.992	×1.420	—	—	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.04%	÷1.023	×0.750	—	×1.042	4.61%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.39%
Singles /BIP	26.25%	÷1.049	×0.920	×1.038	×1.042	24.89%
Doubles /BIP	8.66%	÷1.055	×0.960	×1.038	×1.042	8.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.038	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.57%	÷1.269	×0.880	—	×1.042	1.14%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 110, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .335 → .295; ISO .112 → .096; BABIP .351 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 ASavannah Sand Gnats · 518 PAwOBA .305 → .274 (−31)K% 14.9% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.86%	÷1.018	×1.340	—	—	19.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.46%	÷1.053	×0.660	—	×1.045	6.20%
HBP% /PA	0.39%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.31%
Singles /BIP	25.26%	÷1.017	×0.920	×1.050	×1.045	25.07%
Doubles /BIP	6.77%	÷0.984	×0.820	×1.050	×1.045	6.19%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷0.908	×0.940	×1.050	×1.045	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	0.26%	÷0.987	×0.820	—	×1.045	0.23%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 82, K 104, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .305 → .274; ISO .067 → .062; BABIP .321 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Xavier Nadylast yr '12 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,169 PA	4.8	3,169	101	19	270	324	432	-41	-55	3.9	5.0
/162	664	21	4	-8.5	-11.5	0.8	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	4.9	3,269	91	9	250	313	401	-58	-75	3.0	3.7
/162	664	18	2	-11.9	-15.2	0.6	pk7: 4
#2Gerald Perry'83-'95 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	59	142	262*	332*	402*	-62	-20	0.4	2.3
/162	664	11	27	-11.7	-3.8	0.1	pk7: 4
#3Jeremy Hermidalast yr '11 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,187 PA	3.3	2,187	61	19	256	333	410	-23	-39	2.2	2.2
/162	664	19	6	-7.1	-11.9	0.7	pk7: 2
#4John Mabry'94-'07 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,765 PA	5.7	3,765	96	7	253*	309*	396*	-45	-17	0.5	2.2
/162	664	17	1	-8.0	-3.0	0.1	pk7: 4
#5Daryle Ward'98-'08 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,462 PA	3.7	2,462	90	1	253*	307*	432*	-36	-14	0.9	1.9
/162	664	24	0	-9.6	-3.9	0.2	pk7: 3
#6Ben Gamellast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,305 PA	3.5	2,305	41	22	253	335	383	-25	-45	0.2	0.5
/162	664	12	6	-7.1	-13.0	0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dominic Smith (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	246/311/388	142	284	7	2	19%	8%	99	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Felix Perez 2017 · AAA	32	47→54	51→60	38→50	44	241/288/403	161	277	19	5	21%	6%	93	+0.8	235/287/404	169	274	22	5	23%	6%	93	+0.8	218/271/411	193	237	28	0	23%	5%	90	+0.3
✕Aaron Guiel 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	52→60	37→45	50	235/313/404	169	268	19	6	20%	8%	103	+1.5	226/306/410	184	258	22	6	22%	8%	102	+1.5	218/301/405	187	246	23	4	22%	8%	99	+1.2
✕Emmanuel Valdez 2011 · AAA	32	49→51	48→50	37→40	52	243/325/388	145	298	16	3	23%	10%	103	+1.6	224/296/367	143	297	17	4	29%	8%	88	+0.4	198/283/349	151	275	19	4	33%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Troy O'Leary 2002 · MLB	32	49→53	51→50	39→30	49	248/305/418	170	272	17	3	17%	7%	102	+1.5	248/311/383	135	282	13	6	16%	8%	97	+1.1	251/319/357	106	287	9	5	15%	8%	94	+0.4
✕Daryle Ward 2007 · MLB	32	51→55	53→60	37→30	50	260/316/438	178	275	21	3	15%	7%	111	+2.1	250/318/415	165	286	18	4	19%	9%	107	+1.8	226/293/367	141	261	16	2	20%	8%	86	+0.1
✕Brett Harper 2013 · AAA	32	48→51	54→60	38→30	42	250/301/419	168	299	23	5	25%	5%	102	+1.5	243/301/404	161	303	22	6	26%	7%	99	+1.2	229/285/373	144	281	22	0	27%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Leslie Anderson 2013 · AAA	31	53→55	45	36→30	42	260/292/373	114	285	13	3	15%	3%	87	+0.4	242/291/359	117	271	12	5	15%	5%	84	+0.1	233/289/343	110	258	11	2	14%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Greg Jacobs 2008 · AAA	31	48→49	50→55	39→40	44	244/286/405	161	264	18	4	16%	5%	93	+0.8	232/279/360	128	264	12	5	17%	5%	79	-0.2	226/276/323	97	262	8	2	17%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Efren Navarro 2018 · MLB	32	49→59	41→45	38→45	47	237/294/332	95	296	8	3	22%	7%	78	-0.3	237/293/348	111	301	11	6	24%	7%	82	-0.0	247/291/343	96	313	9	0	24%	6%	80	-0.0
✕David Murphy 2015 · MLB	33	50→59	47→55	39→50	53	248/308/387	139	267	14	5	13%	8%	97	+1.1	254/302/390	136	279	15	4	15%	6%	95	+0.9	276/313/412	135	297	15	0	13%	5%	105	+1.1
●Matt Joyce 2016 · MLB	31	45→52	47→60	37→50	55	223/313/362	139	269	14	4	22%	11%	93	+0.8	235/339/430	195	272	23	4	22%	13%	118	+2.7	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
✕Jon Weber 2010 · AAA	32	48→53	47→50	41→50	45	237/292/381	144	291	14	8	23%	7%	89	+0.5	227/283/339	112	282	9	10	22%	7%	76	-0.4	214/266/283	69	264	2	10	19%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Shawn Wooten 2004 · MLB	32	51→42	47→45	38→30	47	255/300/384	129	283	16	5	17%	6%	93	+0.8	223/272/341	118	255	14	3	18%	5%	72	-0.7	206/251/298	92	242	11	0	20%	4%	53	-1.2
✕John Rodriguez 2010 · AAA	32	42→47	50→55	40	43	219/289/371	152	277	18	3	27%	7%	86	+0.3	214/279/354	140	260	15	8	23%	6%	78	-0.3	179/254/309	130	192	10	8	13%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Wes Helms 2008 · MLB	32	54→49	49→55	37→30	47	265/322/425	160	311	15	3	20%	7%	110	+2.1	247/305/369	122	311	11	3	23%	7%	91	+0.7	242/304/351	110	314	9	1	24%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Paul McAnulty 2012 · MLB	31	45→51	50→55	41→40	45	232/282/387	156	273	19	4	23%	6%	87	+0.4	221/289/393	172	269	21	5	26%	8%	91	+0.7	192/276/377	185	223	24	1	26%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Omar De La Torre 2012 · AAA	32	50→58	43→50	36→45	40	246/275/360	114	291	10	3	20%	3%	77	-0.3	217/251/306	89	269	8	5	22%	4%	55	-1.9	199/234/268	69	248	6	3	22%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Enrique Hernández 2023 · MLB	31	46→56	49→60	39→45	53	229/306/383	154	259	16	2	18%	9%	95	+1.0	231/289/368	137	270	15	4	20%	7%	85	+0.2	227/281/361	134	265	16	2	21%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Andy Phillips 2008 · MLB	31	51→55	49→55	41→40	47	255/305/400	146	288	17	5	18%	6%	98	+1.2	252/301/384	132	282	15	6	16%	6%	93	+0.8	254/301/380	126	279	15	3	15%	6%	92	+0.3
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2

Dominic Smith

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps