David Hagaman
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 94
ERA4.11
FIP4.11
K%25.8%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%16.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 42 | 163 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 3.3 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 2.98 | 3.77 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 42 | 163 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 3.3 | 33.7% | 6.1% | 27.6% | 1.8% | 2.98 | 2.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 12 | 12 | 53 | 234 | 69 | 28 | 5 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.7% | 13.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.42 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.8% | 9.0% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25.8% | 9.0% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.15 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 117 | 508 | 140 | 53 | 13 | — | — | 27.5% | 10.4% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 25.8% | 9.0% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 3.76 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 130 | 43 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.03 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 152 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 3.99 | +2.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 165 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 8.4% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 3.98 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 162 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.02 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 156 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.6% | 17.3% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.11 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 148 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +1.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 137 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 4.32 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 126 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 114 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 4.0% | 4.71 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 51 | 215 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 91 | 384 | 100 | 32 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.03 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 131 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 8.4% | 17.7% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 4.02 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 138 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 139 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.6% | 17.3% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 134 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 126 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 16.2% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 118 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 4.55 | 4.67 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 107 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 163 | 163 | 972 | 4106 | 1050 | 364 | 139 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 3.92 | +16.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 216 | 75 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 25 | 25 | 95 | 397 | 92 | 46 | 11 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.1% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 4.14 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 53 | 200 | 836 | 193 | 97 | 23 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.1% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Hagaman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 25.8% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.00 | 26.1% | 17.6% | 406 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 86 |
| Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 82 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.47 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.31 | 2.47 | 155 | 82 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 82 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 81 |
| Ty Madden R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.42 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | .304 | 5.61 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 179 | +1.19 | 4.42 | 420 | 81 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 81 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.71 | 27.5% | 18.8% | 209 | +0.16 | 3.55 | 405 | 81 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 81 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.39 | 25.5% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .284 | 5.13 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 291 | +0.74 | 3.81 | 527 | 80 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 80 |
| Gavin Williams R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.43 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .238 | 3.89 | 25.1% | 14.1% | 398 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 626 | 80 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.70 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .277 | 4.84 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 119 | +1.14 | 3.70 | 776 | 80 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 79 |
| Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 79 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 79 |
| Brett Kerry R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.48 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.1% | .343 | 5.89 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 394 | +1.41 | 4.48 | 578 | 79 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.49 | 3.73 | 540 | 79 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .313 | 3.91 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 166 | -0.16 | 3.53 | 357 | 79 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .360 | 4.73 | 22.8% | 15.8% | 243 | +0.66 | 4.07 | 470 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 128 | 25.6% | 8.8% | 1.26 | 4.18 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |