David Hagaman — OGILVIE

David Hagaman P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.04

FIP4.04

K%26.1%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD4045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.5	$9M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+1.2	$6M	+$0.3M
Totals		$28M		$43M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	163	55	10	3	100%	3.3	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.8%	2.98	3.72	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	163	55	10	3	100%	3.3	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.8%	2.98	3.72	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	42	163	55	10	3	100%	3.3	33.7%	6.1%	27.6%	1.8%	2.98	2.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	22	22	107	449	132	45	10	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.4%	11.7%	2.8%	2.87	4.11	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	22	22	107	449	132	45	10	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.4%	11.7%	2.8%	2.87	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	ARI	15	15	71	307	86	33	7	100%	4.8	28.0%	10.7%	17.3%	2.3%	3.03	3.35	—
2026	23	AA RAW	ARI	7	7	35	142	46	12	3	100%	5.0	32.4%	8.5%	23.9%	2.1%	2.55	2.59	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	8	32	8	3	1	100%	7.6	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	3.0%	4.04	4.04	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	114	481	140	48	11	—	—	29.2%	9.9%	19.2%	2.3%	2.95	4.10	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	133	562	148	47	17	100%	5.5	26.3%	8.4%	17.9%	3.0%	4.00	3.97	+1.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	153	645	170	53	19	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.2%	18.2%	3.0%	3.96	3.93	+1.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	165	696	183	57	21	100%	6.1	26.4%	8.1%	18.2%	3.0%	3.94	3.92	+1.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	162	685	180	56	21	100%	6.0	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	3.0%	3.96	3.97	+1.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	157	665	174	55	21	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.3%	17.8%	3.1%	4.02	4.05	+1.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	150	635	164	54	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.3%	4.12	4.18	+1.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	141	597	152	53	21	100%	5.9	25.5%	8.9%	16.6%	3.5%	4.26	4.36	+0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	132	556	140	51	21	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.2%	15.9%	3.7%	4.44	4.56	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	122	515	127	50	20	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.6%	15.0%	4.0%	4.65	4.79	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	112	472	114	48	20	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	4.2%	4.88	5.04	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	57	241	63	20	7	100%	5.7	26.3%	8.4%	17.9%	2.8%	3.91	3.88	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	101	426	112	35	12	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.2%	18.2%	2.8%	3.87	3.84	+1.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	131	553	146	45	16	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.1%	18.2%	2.8%	3.85	3.83	+1.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	138	583	153	48	17	100%	6.0	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	2.9%	3.87	3.88	+1.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	140	591	154	49	17	100%	6.1	26.1%	8.3%	17.8%	3.0%	3.93	3.96	+1.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	137	578	150	50	18	100%	6.0	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.1%	4.02	4.08	+1.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	130	549	140	49	18	100%	5.9	25.5%	8.9%	16.6%	3.3%	4.15	4.25	+0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	123	519	130	48	18	100%	6.2	25.1%	9.2%	15.9%	3.5%	4.33	4.45	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	114	481	119	46	18	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.6%	15.0%	3.7%	4.53	4.67	+0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	106	448	108	45	18	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	4.0%	4.75	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	197	1178	4973	1277	435	159	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.2%	4.12	3.79	+15.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	74	27	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.2%	4.12	3.79	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		35	35	149	612	142	65	17	100%	4.3	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.8%	2.90	4.00	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	821	191	87	23	100%	4.3	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.8%	2.90	4.00	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Hagaman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.04	26.1%	8.7%	3.0%	—	3.94	26.3%	18.1%	451	-0.10	—	—	—
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	86
Griffin Canning R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	25.0%	7.2%	3.1%	.277	4.71	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.11	3.60	801	85
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	83
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	24.0%	7.6%	3.4%	.360	4.60	22.6%	15.7%	243	+0.73	3.87	506	82
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	82
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	82
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	81
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	81
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	81
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.89	24.9%	14.1%	398	+0.45	3.44	682	81
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	81
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	81
Hayden Wesneski R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	23.2%	7.2%	3.1%	.295	4.17	22.4%	14.7%	336	+0.38	3.18	546	80
Drey Jameson R 2021 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	24.6%	8.7%	3.7%	.310	4.43	20.0%	11.5%	226	+0.27	4.16	397	80
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	80
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	138	25.8%	8.7%	1.28	4.18
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12