David Hagaman

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#219ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	13	13	42	2.98	2.13	33.7%	6.1%	—	K 23.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.72
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	22	107	2.87	3.11	29.4%	10.0%	—	K 23.0% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.11
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	1	1	4	4.35	4.35	25.1%	11.0%	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBARI	8	8	45	4.19	4.15	25.2%	10.2%	0.6
2029PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBARI	12	12	69	4.15	4.13	25.2%	9.9%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 9.3, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 74%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Blake Wehunt (age 23) · Kyle Bradish (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%25.1%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$25M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	163	55	10	3	100%	3.3	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.8%	2.98	3.72	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	42	163	55	10	3	100%	3.3	23.6%	8.5%	15.2%	2.8%	2.98	3.72	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	42	163	55	10	3	100%	3.3	33.7%	6.1%	27.6%	1.8%	2.98	2.13	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	449	132	45	10	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.4%	11.7%	2.8%	2.87	4.11	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	449	132	45	10	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.4%	11.7%	2.8%	2.87	4.11	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	107	449	132	45	10	100%	4.8	29.4%	10.0%	19.4%	2.2%	2.87	3.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	1	1	4	17	4	2	0	100%	4.0	25.1%	11.0%	14.2%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	98	416	105	42	12	100%	5.8	25.2%	10.2%	15.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	102	432	109	43	13	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.9%	15.3%	2.9%	4.24	4.22	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	99	416	104	41	12	100%	6.2	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.26	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	94	396	98	40	12	100%	5.9	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	3.1%	4.30	4.34	+1.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	88	369	91	38	12	100%	5.8	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.47	+1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	79	335	81	35	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.5%	13.7%	3.4%	4.55	4.65	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	71	298	71	32	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.9%	13.0%	3.7%	4.73	4.85	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	62	261	61	29	10	100%	6.2	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.9%	4.94	5.08	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	45	190	48	19	5	100%	5.6	25.2%	10.2%	15.1%	2.8%	4.19	4.15	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	69	291	73	29	8	100%	5.8	25.2%	9.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.15	4.13	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	77	325	81	32	9	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.16	4.17	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	79	334	83	33	10	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.25	+1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	77	325	80	33	10	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	3.1%	4.30	4.37	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	71	300	73	32	10	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.5%	13.7%	3.2%	4.45	4.55	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	65	274	65	30	9	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.9%	13.0%	3.5%	4.62	4.74	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	57	241	56	27	9	100%	5.7	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.7%	4.82	4.96	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	540	2282	560	236	70	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.3%	14.2%	3.1%	4.35	4.02	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	207	87	26	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.3%	14.2%	3.1%	4.35	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		35	35	149	612	142	65	17	100%	4.3	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.8%	2.90	4.00	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	821	191	87	23	100%	4.3	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.8%	2.90	4.00	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 71 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.41 (+1.06)K% 28.0% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.01%	—	×0.770	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.75%	—	×1.150	12.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 35 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.45 (+0.86)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.39%	—	×0.810	26.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.45%	—	×1.100	9.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.54%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 20 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.36 (+1.42)K% 35.5% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.53%	—	×0.770	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.150	6.05%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷0.968	×1.250	5.10%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 15 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.93 (+0.79)K% 25.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.740	19.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.180	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.037	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 7 IPFIP -0.95 → 0.34 (+1.30)K% 48.0% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.00%	—	×0.680	32.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.302	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP -0.95 → 0.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Hagaman (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.24	25.2%	15.2%	299	-0.11	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	88
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	86
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	86
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	86
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	85
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	85
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	85
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	84
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	83
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	83
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	83
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	83
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	82
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	82
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	81
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	81
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	87	24.7%	10.4%	1.23	4.41
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86