David Hagaman
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.6%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.7%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 13 | 13 | 42 | 163 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 2.98 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 13 | 42 | 163 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 2.98 | 3.72 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 61 | 200 | 770 | 184 | 66 | 24 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 2.98 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Hagaman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.14 | 24.4% | 15.8% | 93 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 90 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 88 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 88 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 88 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 88 |
| Patrick Ruotolo R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 27.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.63 | 28.9% | 25.8% | 37 | -0.57 | 3.02 | 190 | 88 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 88 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 87 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 87 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.99 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 153 | +1.24 | 3.75 | 198 | 87 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 87 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.46 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.34 | 27.8% | 15.6% | 170 | +0.88 | 3.46 | 290 | 87 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 87 |
| Matt Seelinger R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 25.8% | 9.2% | 4.6% | .320 | 4.25 | 28.3% | 14.1% | 83 | -0.34 | 3.12 | 310 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 87 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .250 | 4.37 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.04 | 4.33 | 130 | 86 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.34 | 3.29 | 201 | 86 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 86 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $4M | +$1M | ||