Rafeliz Lara

SS DSL CLE Goryl

Age 18 S/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#425ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL CLE Goryl	201	.290/.375/.511	5	10	50	—	.176/.250/.286
2027PROJMLE	18	MLB—	311	.243/.303/.361	4	6	87	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	19	MLB—	68	.246/.308/.369	1	1	91	0.2
2029PROJ61% MLB	20	MLB—	165	.248/.311/.376	2	4	94	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%97

K%95

Whiff%95

ISO88

Speed76

wOBA68

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsXavier Edwards (age 19) · Pedro Ramírez (age 19) · Ronald Torreyes (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 105 proj PA

wRC+87

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .300 / .358

PA105

HR1

K%21

BB%7

ISO117

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$70M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 74 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT74

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$6M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$9M	+1.0	$3M	+$0.5M
Totals		$24M		$34M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	176	51	10	7	5	19	21	5	10	3	290	375	511	886	222	305	10	9	387	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	182	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	176	250	286	536	110	193	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	182	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	176	250	286	536	110	194	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	176	51	10	7	5	19	21	5	10	3	290	375	511	886	222	305	10	9	387	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	181	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	177	250	287	537	110	193	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	181	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	177	250	287	537	110	193	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	311	284	69	12	5	4	20	65	4	6	1	243	303	361	663	117	301	21	6	296	87	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	43%	157	143	35	6	3	2	11	33	2	3	1	246	308	369	677	123	303	21	7	302	91	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.4
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	61%	271	246	61	11	4	4	19	56	4	6	2	248	311	376	688	128	304	21	7	307	94	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	68%	387	351	87	15	6	6	27	80	6	9	3	250	314	382	696	133	304	21	7	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	71%	468	425	106	19	7	8	33	97	7	11	4	251	316	387	703	136	304	21	7	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.5
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	72%	522	471	120	21	8	10	38	108	8	12	4	252	317	391	708	139	304	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	72%	558	505	127	22	8	11	40	115	8	13	4	253	318	392	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+6	+12	2.0
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	71%	576	521	131	23	8	11	42	119	8	13	4	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+6	+12	2.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	71%	590	533	135	24	9	11	43	122	9	13	4	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+6	+13	2.1
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	70%	590	534	135	24	9	11	43	123	8	13	5	252	317	390	708	139	305	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+6	+13	2.0
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	69%	582	527	132	23	8	11	42	122	8	12	5	250	316	386	702	136	304	21	7	313	98	-2	+0	-1	+6	+13	1.7
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	67%	565	511	127	22	8	10	41	120	8	11	5	248	313	380	694	132	303	21	7	309	95	-3	+0	-1	+6	+12	1.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	66%	552	501	123	21	8	9	39	119	7	10	5	246	310	373	683	128	302	22	7	305	93	-5	+0	-2	+6	+12	1.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	—	71%	533	484	117	20	7	8	37	117	7	8	6	242	305	364	669	122	300	22	7	299	89	-7	-1	-3	+6	+12	0.7
2041	32	MLB MLE	—	68%	511	465	111	19	7	7	35	115	6	7	8	237	300	352	652	115	297	23	7	292	84	-10	-2	-4	+5	+11	0.2
2042	33	MLB MLE	—	73%	475	434	100	16	6	6	32	110	6	6	13	231	293	338	631	107	293	23	7	284	78	-12	-4	-4	+5	+10	-0.5
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	43%	68	62	16	3	1	1	5	14	1	1	0	246	308	369	677	123	303	21	7	302	91	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	61%	165	151	37	6	3	2	11	34	2	4	1	248	311	376	688	128	304	21	7	307	94	-1	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.5
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	68%	264	240	59	10	4	4	18	55	4	6	2	250	314	382	696	133	304	21	7	310	96	-1	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	71%	333	301	76	13	5	6	24	69	5	8	3	251	316	387	703	136	304	21	7	313	98	-1	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.1
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	72%	377	341	86	15	6	7	27	78	6	8	3	252	317	391	708	139	304	21	7	315	99	-0	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	72%	399	361	92	16	6	8	29	82	6	9	3	253	318	392	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.4
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	71%	410	371	94	16	6	8	30	85	6	9	3	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.4
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	71%	419	380	96	17	6	8	30	87	6	9	3	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.5
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	70%	410	371	93	16	6	8	30	85	6	9	3	252	317	390	708	139	305	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.4
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	69%	400	362	91	16	6	7	29	84	6	8	3	250	316	386	702	136	304	21	7	313	98	-1	+0	-0	+4	+9	1.2
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	67%	378	343	85	15	5	7	27	81	5	7	3	248	313	380	694	132	303	21	7	309	95	-2	+0	-1	+4	+8	1.0
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	66%	363	329	81	14	5	6	26	79	5	7	3	246	310	373	683	128	302	22	7	305	93	-3	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.8
2040	31	MLB CTX	—	71%	378	343	83	14	5	6	27	83	5	6	4	242	305	364	669	122	300	22	7	299	89	-5	-0	-2	+4	+8	0.5
2041	32	MLB CTX	—	68%	348	317	76	13	5	5	24	78	4	5	6	237	300	352	652	115	297	22	7	292	84	-7	-1	-2	+4	+8	0.1
2042	33	MLB CTX	—	73%	344	314	73	12	5	4	23	79	4	5	10	231	293	338	631	107	293	23	7	284	78	-9	-3	-3	+4	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5056	4586	1138	196	74	87	360	1073	71	101	50	248	313	380	693	132	304	21	7	308	93	-31	+0	-10	+54	+110	12.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	146	25	10	11	46	138	9	13	6	247	312	380	691	132	304	21	7	308	93	-4	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7643	6929	1702	296	112	128	542	1604	108	159	76	246	310	376	686	130	301	21	7	306	93	-48	+1	-15	+80	+161	18.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	145	25	10	11	46	136	9	14	6	246	310	379	689	132	301	21	7	306	93	-4	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL CLE Goryl · 201 PAwOBA .378 → .242 (−136)K% 10.4% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.45%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	12.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.45%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	—	6.62%
HBP% /PA	2.49%	—	×0.700	—	—	1.74%
Singles /BIP	18.71%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.992	—	12.63%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.992	—	3.84%
Triples /BIP	4.52%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.992	—	2.69%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	—	1.52%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age unknown — no age adjustment. Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .378 → .242; ISO .222 → .124; BABIP .305 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Scott Fletcher'81-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,976 PA	9.0	5,976	34	99	258*	330*	357*	+42	+40	17.2	18.2
/162	664	4	11	+4.6	+4.5	1.9	pk7: 19
#3Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	7.8	5,162	88	103	249	310	380	+55	+33	16.5	13.8
/162	664	11	13	+7.1	+4.2	2.1	pk7: 11
#5Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafeliz Lara (OGILVIE)	18	69→74	36→41	51→56	50	241/300/358	116	301	1	2	21%	7%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	50→57	40→45	53→55	44	237/287/335	98	286	6	14	19%	5%	76	-0.4	245/302/345	100	311	7	14	22%	7%	84	+0.1	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Ronald Torreyes 2011 · A	18	57→59	42→45	52→50	47	268/318/394	126	285	6	14	9%	4%	101	+1.4	271/315/368	97	293	5	11	9%	4%	94	+0.9	271/315/361	90	292	4	9	8%	4%	89	+0.4
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
●Jose Tabata 2007 · A	18	54→62	41→45	51→55	44	257/313/356	99	323	8	16	22%	6%	91	+0.6	271/321/361	90	336	7	14	20%	5%	95	+0.9	284/341/385	101	328	6	26	14%	7%	107	+1.5
●Ozzie Albies 2015 · A	18	58→62	36→60	55	51	271/332/343	72	321	3	18	16%	7%	94	+0.9	270/316/368	98	332	4	20	19%	6%	94	+0.9	273/321/453	180	310	18	16	18%	6%	116	+2.9
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Keibert Ruiz 2017 · A	19	51→59	38→50	47→40	44	239/276/325	86	280	4	4	16%	4%	69	-0.9	254/295/354	100	286	9	2	14%	4%	83	+0.1	257/310/410	154	264	19	3	11%	6%	103	+1.2
●Chance Sisco 2014 · A	19	54→64	38→50	47→40	47	247/319/327	80	341	5	6	27%	8%	86	+0.3	281/335/373	92	363	6	4	22%	7%	102	+1.5	296/352/391	94	378	6	3	22%	7%	110	+1.5
✕Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	51→60	39→50	48→50	52	239/316/323	85	302	6	12	22%	10%	84	+0.2	217/281/304	87	307	5	10	29%	8%	67	-1.1	242/324/370	128	322	13	10	27%	10%	96	+0.8
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
✕Alejo Lopez 2016 · A	20	51→61	38→40	46→55	51	239/308/319	80	277	4	9	15%	7%	80	-0.1	229/282/302	73	267	4	10	15%	6%	66	-1.1	269/335/357	88	309	5	12	14%	8%	96	+0.8
●Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	51→57	38→50	51→50	45	241/287/329	88	302	4	10	21%	6%	74	-0.6	251/307/379	128	337	10	10	27%	7%	93	+0.8	255/313/401	146	322	13	11	24%	7%	98	+1.0
●Elvis Andrus 2007 · A	18	50→60	38→50	47→60	42	237/283/320	84	312	5	14	25%	6%	71	-0.8	249/302/329	80	321	5	29	22%	6%	80	-0.1	276/328/411	135	308	11	19	14%	7%	107	+1.7
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	50→59	38→50	48→55	49	236/308/322	86	282	5	11	18%	7%	82	-0.0	242/299/351	109	312	7	23	24%	5%	84	+0.2	260/322/413	154	311	16	25	21%	5%	109	+1.8
●Josue De Paula 2024 · A	19	52→54	38→50	51→55	52	242/326/327	85	316	5	14	23%	10%	89	+0.5	236/331/360	124	307	12	20	25%	12%	99	+1.3	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
✕Adrian Cardenas 2008 · A	20	52→60	41→45	50	44	252/296/351	100	305	8	12	20%	6%	83	+0.1	265/314/360	95	319	6	10	18%	6%	91	+0.7	281/332/373	92	325	5	8	14%	7%	100	+1.2
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	46→56	41→50	45→55	48	223/287/324	101	278	9	11	23%	8%	74	-0.5	249/327/380	131	292	14	17	19%	9%	102	+1.5	244/325/378	134	283	16	23	19%	10%	99	+0.9
✕Domingo Leyba 2015 · A	19	54→52	40→50	48→45	50	255/312/355	100	296	6	10	16%	7%	90	+0.6	228/268/312	84	282	6	7	20%	5%	63	-1.4	240/289/360	120	286	11	4	19%	6%	80	-0.1

Rafeliz Lara

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps