Alejo Lopez

2B Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 31 S/R 5'8" / 170 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAAATL	473	.307/.394/.397	4	21	97	—	.282/.349/.357
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	580	.259/.360/.356	8	17	74	—	.231/.310/.294
2026	30	AAAKC	276	.305/.376/.412	4	9	92	—	.280/.332/.366
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBKC	16	.252/.318/.327	0	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBKC	54	.245/.311/.317	0	1	82	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Speed32

xwOBA22

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

Bat Spd10

CompsIrving Falu (age 30) · Emmanuel Burriss (age 31) · Nick Punto (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .318 / .327

PA16

HR0

K%12

BB%6

BABIP291

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT60

xAVG

470.249

POWER35

Barrel%

100.7

Avg EV

1083.0

Bat Spd

1061.9

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

3226.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	19	ROK	AZL Reds	—	38	31	13	2	0	0	5	0	2	2	2	419	526	484	1.010	65	419	0	13	460	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	229	205	56	6	1	1	21	19	1	11	3	273	344	327	670	54	296	8	9	307	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	269	220	66	10	6	4	30	28	6	11	4	300	398	455	853	155	318	10	11	364	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	260	234	75	16	2	0	18	31	4	7	6	321	379	406	785	85	364	12	7	349	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	540	481	138	17	3	2	38	80	14	9	6	287	356	347	703	60	337	15	7	320	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	105	93	25	1	0	1	7	12	4	1	1	269	346	312	658	43	300	11	7	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	210	189	54	9	0	2	11	21	2	6	2	286	332	365	697	79	302	10	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	23	23	6	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	261	261	261	522		333	22	0	236	45	-2	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.0
2021	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	290	251	76	18	0	6	33	21	3	6	2	303	390	446	836	143	308	7	11	372	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	119	105	38	9	0	0	12	11	2	3	1	362	437	448	885	86	404	9	10	400	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	143	119	28	2	1	2	22	18	1	2	0	235	359	319	678	84	260	13	15	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	145	38	5	1	1	9	21	2	3	1	262	314	331	645	69	301	13	6	294	81	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2022	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	182	160	41	8	0	3	17	21	2	2	0	256	335	362	698	106	273	12	9	313	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	558	466	136	30	2	7	79	76	8	18	4	292	402	410	812	118	334	14	14	368	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	92	73	23	7	1	2	13	15	4	2	0	315	444	521	965	205	375	16	14	419	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	411	126	21	2	4	47	64	12	21	7	307	394	397	790	90	354	14	10	359	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	482	414	111	16	2	5	48	66	16	17	3	268	366	353	719	85	307	14	10	330	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	98	81	17	4	0	3	13	16	1	0	1	210	326	370	697	160	226	16	13	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	276	243	74	12	1	4	26	21	3	9	5	305	376	412	787	107	320	8	9	352	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	179	168	44	5	1	1	9	26	2	3	1	262	307	321	629	60	305	15	5	287	80	-4	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	38	33	12	2	0	0	3	0	2	2	2	364	447	424	872	61	340	0	8	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	229	213	49	5	1	1	13	27	1	11	3	230	278	277	555	47	249	12	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	269	232	53	7	4	3	18	40	6	11	4	228	301	332	633	103	244	15	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	260	241	67	14	2	0	11	43	4	7	6	278	320	353	673	75	322	17	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	540	494	119	14	2	2	26	116	14	9	6	241	298	289	587	49	301	21	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	23	23	6	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	261	261	261	522		333	22	0	235	45	-2	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.0
2021	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	290	263	77	18	0	4	21	27	3	6	2	293	352	407	759	114	305	9	7	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	119	108	34	7	0	0	9	13	2	3	1	315	378	380	758	65	352	11	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	146	38	5	1	1	8	21	2	3	1	260	308	329	636	68	301	13	5	288	81	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2022	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	182	165	40	8	0	2	12	26	2	2	0	242	302	327	629	85	264	14	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	558	493	131	28	2	5	54	91	8	18	4	266	348	361	709	95	313	16	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	426	120	19	2	3	32	80	12	21	7	282	349	357	706	75	334	17	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	482	429	99	14	2	3	33	77	16	17	3	231	310	294	603	63	270	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	276	254	71	11	1	3	17	25	3	9	5	280	332	366	698	87	295	9	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	38	33	12	2	0	0	3	0	2	2	2	364	447	424	872	61	364	0	8	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	—	38	31	13	2	0	0	5	0	2	2	2	419	526	484	1.010	65	419	0	13	460	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	229	213	49	5	1	1	13	27	1	11	3	230	278	277	555	47	258	12	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	229	205	56	6	1	1	21	19	1	11	3	273	344	327	670	54	296	8	9	307	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	269	232	53	7	4	3	18	40	6	11	4	228	301	332	633	103	255	15	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	269	220	66	10	6	4	30	28	6	11	4	300	398	455	853	155	318	10	11	364	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	260	241	67	14	2	0	11	43	4	7	6	278	320	353	673	75	333	17	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	260	234	75	16	2	0	18	31	4	7	6	321	379	406	785	85	364	12	7	349	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	645	588	141	17	2	2	32	138	18	10	7	240	299	286	585	46	307	21	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	645	574	163	18	3	3	45	92	18	10	7	284	354	341	696	57	331	14	7	317	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	210	189	54	9	0	2	11	21	2	6	2	286	332	365	697	79	302	10	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL RAW	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	210	189	54	9	0	2	11	21	2	6	2	286	332	365	697	79	302	10	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	575	525	156	33	0	6	40	59	6	11	3	297	354	394	748	97	323	10	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	575	498	148	29	1	8	67	55	6	11	3	297	387	408	795	110	319	10	12	359	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	311	78	13	1	3	20	47	4	5	1	251	304	328	632	77	284	14	6	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	338	305	79	13	1	4	26	42	4	5	1	259	325	348	673	89	286	12	8	304	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	650	570	153	33	2	6	63	106	12	20	4	268	353	365	718	96	319	16	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	650	539	159	37	3	9	92	91	12	20	4	295	408	425	833	130	339	14	14	375	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	426	120	19	2	3	32	80	12	21	7	282	349	357	706	75	339	17	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	411	126	21	2	4	47	64	12	21	7	307	394	397	790	90	354	14	10	359	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	580	517	120	17	2	4	39	93	17	17	4	232	307	296	603	64	275	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	580	495	128	20	2	8	61	82	17	17	4	259	360	356	715	97	295	14	11	326	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	276	254	71	11	1	3	17	25	3	9	5	280	332	366	698	87	300	9	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	276	243	74	12	1	4	26	21	3	9	5	305	376	412	787	107	320	8	9	352	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	38	33	12	2	0	0	3	0	2	2	2	364	447	424	872	61	340	0	8	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	229	213	49	5	1	1	13	27	1	11	3	230	278	277	555	47	249	12	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	269	243	53	7	4	3	18	40	6	11	4	218	301	317	618	99	244	15	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	260	243	67	14	2	0	11	43	4	7	6	276	320	350	670	74	322	17	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	645	590	141	17	2	2	32	138	18	10	7	239	299	285	584	46	301	21	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	575	524	156	33	0	6	40	59	6	11	3	298	354	395	749	97	319	10	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	311	78	13	1	3	20	47	4	5	1	251	304	328	632	77	281	14	6	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	650	570	153	33	2	6	63	106	12	20	4	268	353	365	718	96	313	16	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	426	120	19	2	3	32	80	12	21	7	282	349	357	706	75	334	17	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	580	519	120	17	2	4	39	93	17	17	4	231	307	295	602	64	270	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	276	254	71	11	1	3	17	25	3	9	5	280	332	366	698	87	295	9	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	426	120	19	2	3	32	80	12	21	7	282	349	357	706	75	334	17	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	580	519	120	17	2	4	39	93	17	17	4	231	307	295	602	64	270	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	276	254	71	11	1	3	17	25	3	9	5	280	332	366	698	87	295	9	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	KC	10%	326	294	75	12	1	3	22	48	7	9	3	254	320	331	650	77	292	15	7	296	87	-5	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	KC	10%	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	252	318	327	645	75	291	12	6	294	87	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	27%	198	179	45	7	1	2	13	31	4	4	2	247	313	320	633	73	288	16	7	289	82	-4	+0	-4	+1	+4	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	27%	54	49	12	2	0	0	4	8	1	1	0	245	311	317	628	71	286	15	7	287	82	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	233	217	56	7	1	1	13	34	3	4	1	258	309	313	622	55	302	15	6	287	75	-5	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	157	20	3	3	36	95	8	11	3	260	309	317	627	58	304	15	6	287	75	-15	+1	-6	+10	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4896	4419	1155	193	19	36	322	733	94	138	51	261	325	338	663	77	303	15	7	279	75	-11	+1	-5	+5	+12	0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	154	26	3	5	43	97	12	18	7	262	326	342	668	80	304	15	7	279	75	-13	+1	-6	+6	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 276 PAwOBA .345 → .304 (−40)K% 7.6% → 9.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.61%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	9.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.42%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.32%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.99%
Singles /BIP	25.68%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.046	×0.972	24.28%
Doubles /BIP	5.41%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.046	×0.972	4.56%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.046	×0.972	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	1.80%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .345 → .304; ISO .107 → .087; BABIP .320 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 482 PAwOBA .323 → .272 (−50)K% 13.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.69%	÷1.027	×1.200	—	—	16.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.75%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.81%
HBP% /PA	3.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	3.06%
Singles /BIP	25.29%	÷1.052	×0.930	×1.024	×0.982	22.47%
Doubles /BIP	4.60%	÷0.988	×0.830	×1.024	×0.982	3.88%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.024	×0.982	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	1.44%	÷1.183	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.83%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .323 → .272; ISO .085 → .065; BABIP .307 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 473 PAwOBA .351 → .311 (−40)K% 13.5% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.53%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	16.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.94%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.79%
HBP% /PA	2.54%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.37%
Singles /BIP	28.53%	÷0.977	×0.930	×1.023	×0.992	27.56%
Doubles /BIP	6.05%	÷0.961	×0.830	×1.023	×0.992	5.30%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.023	×0.992	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	1.15%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.83%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .351 → .311; ISO .090 → .075; BABIP .354 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 558 PAwOBA .360 → .316 (−44)K% 13.6% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.62%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	16.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.98%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.74%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.35%
Singles /BIP	24.87%	÷0.998	×0.930	×1.019	×1.003	23.69%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.019	×1.003	6.95%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.042	×0.970	×1.019	×1.003	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	1.79%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .360 → .316; ISO .118 → .100; BABIP .334 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 182 PAwOBA .310 → .273 (−37)K% 11.5% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.54%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	14.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.34%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.41%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.05%
Singles /BIP	21.58%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.041	×1.018	21.35%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.041	×1.018	5.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.041	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.16%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .310 → .273; ISO .106 → .079; BABIP .273 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 290 PAwOBA .365 → .333 (−32)K% 7.2% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.24%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	9.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.03%	÷1.099	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.16%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.00%
Singles /BIP	22.61%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.048	×1.033	22.91%
Doubles /BIP	7.83%	÷0.945	×0.830	×1.048	×1.033	7.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.048	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.61%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×1.033	1.73%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .365 → .333; ISO .143 → .121; BABIP .308 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 119 PAwOBA .390 → .330 (−60)K% 9.2% → 10.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.24%	÷1.040	×1.220	—	—	10.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.08%	÷0.936	×0.690	—	×0.998	7.42%
HBP% /PA	1.68%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.43%
Singles /BIP	30.85%	÷1.011	×0.940	×0.986	×0.998	28.22%
Doubles /BIP	9.57%	÷1.183	×0.870	×0.986	×0.998	6.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.912	×0.920	×0.986	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .390 → .330; ISO .086 → .063; BABIP .404 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Daytona Tortugas · 540 PAwOBA .313 → .263 (−50)K% 14.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.81%	÷0.985	×1.420	—	—	21.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.016	×0.750	—	×0.998	4.91%
HBP% /PA	2.59%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	2.41%
Singles /BIP	28.93%	÷0.965	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	26.14%
Doubles /BIP	4.24%	÷1.042	×0.960	×0.950	×0.998	3.70%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.998	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	0.50%	÷1.101	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.40%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 93, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .313 → .263; ISO .060 → .047; BABIP .337 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ramón Vázquezlast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,190 PA	3.3	2,190	22	20	255	330	352	+10	-15	4.1	4.6
/162	664	7	6	+3.0	-4.6	1.3	pk7: 5
#2Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Rob Andrews'75-'79 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,641 PA	2.5	1,641	3	33	245*	313*	320*	+6	+10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	13	+2.5	+4.0	1.1	pk7: 3
#5Dave Berg'98-'04 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,781 PA	2.7	1,781	21	8	258*	316*	360*	+4	-9	1.3	1.3
/162	664	8	3	+1.3	-3.4	0.5	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	226	2	4	261	313	332	+1	-0	0.2	0.2
/162	664	5	13	+2.4	-0.9	0.7	pk7: 0
#6Rod Gilbreath'72-'78 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,640 PA	2.5	1,640	14	25	243*	315*	355*	+6	-6	-0.6	-0.6
/162	664	6	10	+2.4	-2.3	-0.2	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alejo Lopez (OGILVIE)	31	60	35	55	50	252/317/328	76	292	1	4	15%	7%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Irving Falu 2013 · MLB	30	58→62	39→40	53→55	47	275/310/364	88	309	5	20	13%	5%	91	+0.6	244/284/318	74	275	4	18	12%	5%	70	-0.8	251/289/337	86	274	7	13	11%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Emmanuel Burriss 2016 · AAA	31	53→56	38→40	52→60	48	247/296/328	81	275	5	18	12%	5%	78	-0.3	224/262/292	68	258	4	14	14%	4%	56	-1.9	207/233/238	31	241	0	13	14%	2%	30	-1.2
✕Nick Punto 2009 · MLB	31	54→60	38→40	53→55	54	250/317/336	86	294	3	19	16%	9%	87	+0.4	236/319/316	80	283	4	16	16%	11%	84	+0.1	243/328/321	79	300	3	9	18%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Shawn O'Malley 2017 · MLB	29	53→58	40	56→60	47	251/312/351	100	312	7	21	21%	7%	89	+0.5	227/283/326	99	290	8	12	23%	6%	73	-0.6	210/260/288	78	269	6	6	23%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Joe Inglett 2009 · MLB	31	56→63	41→45	51→50	50	267/322/376	109	304	6	12	14%	7%	98	+1.2	259/321/371	112	312	6	11	18%	8%	97	+1.1	280/342/398	118	340	4	10	18%	8%	109	+0.7
✕Elian Herrera 2016 · MLB	31	52→57	42→40	50→60	44	251/293/357	107	311	9	12	22%	6%	83	+0.1	231/286/338	107	305	10	9	26%	7%	76	-0.4	175/238/190	15	266	0	0	32%	8%	24	-0.8
✕Amadeo Zazueta 2017 · AAA	31	56→61	37→40	49→50	45	263/296/339	76	292	5	14	12%	4%	79	-0.2	266/297/365	99	292	8	11	12%	4%	86	+0.3	271/302/371	100	293	8	8	10%	3%	87	+0.3
●Corey Wimberly 2015 · AAA	31	49→59	36→40	54→65	43	228/270/304	75	268	3	19	16%	4%	62	-1.4	269/330/360	91	303	4	28	12%	5%	98	+1.2	303/370/391	88	334	3	37	9%	5%	118	+1.3
✕Cliff Pennington 2015 · MLB	31	50→54	39→45	52→55	51	236/305/324	87	284	7	13	19%	8%	80	-0.1	225/294/318	93	286	9	9	23%	9%	75	-0.5	216/283/297	80	282	8	6	25%	8%	67	-0.4
✕Cory Sullivan 2011 · MLB	31	50→60	40→45	50	50	239/294/333	94	278	6	11	16%	7%	78	-0.3	217/288/311	94	265	8	11	20%	9%	72	-0.7	166/256/198	32	207	0	8	18%	11%	34	-0.7
✕Quinton McCracken 2004 · MLB	33	53→63	39→40	51→50	50	252/306/354	102	297	5	10	17%	7%	87	+0.4	243/298/335	92	282	6	11	15%	7%	80	-0.2	244/298/321	76	282	5	10	14%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Pokey Reese 2004 · MLB	31	49→54	41→45	55	49	237/296/333	96	283	8	20	19%	7%	79	-0.2	227/282/330	103	281	10	14	22%	7%	73	-0.6	214/261/294	79	270	7	13	22%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Andrew Romine 2017 · MLB	31	50→55	40	55	46	239/297/327	88	294	8	22	21%	6%	78	-0.3	231/286/330	99	285	8	15	21%	6%	75	-0.5	225/274/315	90	276	8	17	21%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Alexi Casilla 2016 · MLB	32	50→60	39→40	50→60	45	241/278/324	84	281	6	17	17%	5%	70	-0.9	226/267/315	89	273	7	12	19%	5%	63	-1.3	210/246/272	62	255	3	9	18%	4%	41	-1.4
✕Will Rhymes 2013 · MLB	30	54→61	39→40	48→55	52	253/308/341	88	279	6	11	12%	7%	85	+0.2	231/286/317	86	255	6	8	12%	7%	72	-0.7	228/283/306	78	251	4	6	11%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2024 · MLB	29	53→58	40	52→55	49	253/307/341	88	291	8	21	16%	6%	85	+0.2	255/302/350	95	298	8	18	17%	5%	85	+0.2	256/301/341	85	300	6	19	16%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Tike Redman 2008 · MLB	31	55→59	39→45	57→55	49	257/298/348	92	280	5	24	11%	5%	82	+0.0	261/312/349	88	291	5	17	11%	7%	88	+0.4	269/329/344	75	300	3	13	11%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Alden Carrithers 2015 · AAA	30	52→59	36→30	51→55	54	245/317/312	67	279	4	18	13%	8%	82	+0.0	238/306/321	83	275	6	15	15%	8%	80	-0.2	243/309/288	45	274	3	14	12%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Trevor Crowe 2014 · MLB	30	50→56	39→45	53→55	48	237/292/321	84	290	6	24	20%	7%	74	-0.5	226/271/325	99	270	9	17	19%	6%	68	-1.0	208/239/297	89	240	8	15	17%	4%	47	-1.2
✕Maxwell Leon 2015 · AAA	31	52→56	40→50	49→50	45	248/303/347	100	302	6	13	20%	6%	85	+0.2	240/292/325	85	305	7	13	22%	6%	76	-0.4	231/293/328	97	292	9	12	23%	6%	75	-0.3

Alejo Lopez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps