Alejo Lopez — OGILVIE

Alejo Lopez2B Tacoma Rainiers

Age 30 S/R 5'8" / 170 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION146 act + 104 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .320 / .323

PA104

HR1

K%15

BB%8

BABIP286

ISO75

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT60

Whiff%

788.1%

xwOBA

220.276

POWER35

Barrel%

100.7

Avg EV

1083.0

Bat Spd

1061.9

EYE50

Chase%

3235.2%

SPEED55

Sprint

3226.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Reds	—	38	33	12	2	0	0	3	0	2	2	2	364	447	424	872	61	364	0	8	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK	AZL Reds	—	38	31	13	2	0	0	5	0	2	2	2	419	526	484	1.010	65	419	0	13	460	210	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	229	213	49	5	1	1	13	27	1	11	3	230	278	277	555	47	258	12	6	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	229	205	56	6	1	1	21	19	1	11	3	273	344	327	670	54	296	8	9	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	269	232	56	8	5	3	18	40	6	11	4	241	312	358	670	116	270	15	7	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	269	220	66	10	6	4	30	28	6	11	4	300	398	455	853	155	318	10	11	364	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	260	242	67	15	2	0	10	43	4	7	6	277	316	355	672	79	332	17	4	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	260	234	75	16	2	0	18	31	4	7	6	321	379	406	785	85	364	12	7	349	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	2 teams	—	645	589	145	16	2	2	31	140	18	10	7	246	304	290	594	44	316	22	5	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	2 teams	—	645	574	163	18	3	3	45	92	18	10	7	284	354	341	696	57	331	14	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	210	189	54	9	0	2	11	21	2	6	2	286	332	365	697	79	302	10	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	210	189	54	9	0	2	11	21	2	6	2	286	332	365	697	79	302	10	5	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	4 teams	—	575	528	153	32	0	6	37	62	6	11	3	290	343	384	728	95	317	11	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	4 teams	—	575	498	148	29	1	8	67	55	6	11	3	297	387	408	795	110	319	10	12	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	338	311	77	13	1	3	20	48	4	5	1	248	301	325	626	77	281	14	6	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	338	305	79	13	1	4	26	42	4	5	1	259	325	348	673	89	286	12	8	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	650	569	155	35	2	6	64	105	12	20	4	272	358	373	731	100	323	16	10	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	650	539	159	37	3	9	92	91	12	20	4	295	408	425	833	130	339	14	14	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	426	122	19	1	4	32	84	12	21	7	286	353	364	717	77	347	18	7	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	411	126	21	2	4	47	64	12	21	7	307	394	397	790	90	354	14	10	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	580	513	110	16	2	3	43	97	17	17	4	214	297	271	568	57	258	17	7	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	580	495	128	20	2	8	61	82	17	17	4	259	360	356	715	97	295	14	11	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	AAA	SEA	—	146	134	37	8	0	2	9	13	3	3	2	276	336	381	716	104	294	9	6	308	94	-1	-0	+0	+1	+4	0.4
YTD	30	AAA	SEA	—	146	129	39	9	0	2	13	10	3	3	2	302	377	419	795	116	316	7	9	358	132	+5	-0	+0	+1	+4	1.0
ROS	30	AAA	SEA	10%	104	93	23	4	0	1	8	16	2	3	1	247	320	323	643	75	296	15	8	305	91	-1	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.3
ROS	30	MLB	SEA	10%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	222	300	222	522		294	20	10	285	76	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	30	AAA	SEA	—	156	143	39	8	0	2	10	15	3	3	2	273	333	371	704	98	294	10	6	306	93	-1	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.4
TOT	30	AAA	SEA	—	250	227	60	12	0	3	17	29	5	6	3	264	329	357	686	93	291	12	7	307	93	-2	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	SEA	33%	365	327	82	15	1	4	27	59	8	8	3	251	323	339	663	89	292	16	7	300	88	-5	+0	-3	+1	+10	0.4
2028	32	MLB	SEA	46%	346	310	77	14	1	4	26	59	7	7	2	248	321	339	659	90	288	17	8	295	84	-6	+1	-4	+1	+10	0.2
2029	33	MLB	SEA	54%	316	283	68	12	1	3	24	56	6	5	2	240	313	322	635	81	284	18	8	289	79	-7	+0	-4	+1	+9	-0.2
2027	31	MLB	SEA	33%	119	106	26	5	0	1	9	19	3	3	1	245	322	321	643	75	290	16	8	281	74	-4	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	32	MLB	SEA	46%	159	143	34	6	0	2	12	27	3	3	1	238	310	322	632	84	286	17	8	277	70	-5	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.2
2029	33	MLB	SEA	54%	169	151	36	6	0	2	13	30	3	3	1	238	311	318	629	79	282	18	8	271	66	-7	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	636	577	142	22	1	6	44	104	11	12	4	246	312	319	631	73	289	16	7	279	72	-20	+1	-6	+5	+18	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	144	22	1	6	45	106	11	12	4	244	310	315	625	71	287	16	7	279	72	-21	+1	-6	+5	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	5398	4858	1250	215	19	42	367	857	107	144	51	257	323	335	659	78	302	16	7	281	73	-163	+8	-12	+19	+153	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	150	26	2	5	44	103	13	17	6	256	322	333	656	77	301	16	7	281	73	-20	+1	-1	+2	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Reds	—	38	31	13	2	0	0	5	0	2	2	2	419	526	484	1.010	65	419	0	13	460	210	+5	-0	—	—	+1	0.6
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	229	205	56	6	1	1	21	19	1	11	3	273	344	327	670	54	296	8	9	307	93	-2	+1	—	—	+6	0.6
2017	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	269	220	66	10	6	4	30	28	6	11	4	300	398	455	853	155	318	10	11	364	136	+11	+1	—	—	+8	2.0
2018	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	260	234	75	16	2	0	18	31	4	7	6	321	379	406	785	85	364	12	7	349	126	+8	-1	—	—	+7	1.4
2019	23	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	540	481	138	17	3	2	38	80	14	9	6	287	356	347	703	60	337	15	7	320	103	+2	-1	—	—	+15	1.7
2019	23	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	105	93	25	1	0	1	7	12	4	1	1	269	346	312	658	43	300	11	7	305	91	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
2020	24	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	210	189	54	9	0	2	11	21	2	6	2	286	332	365	697	79	302	10	5	304	91	-2	+0	—	—	+6	0.4
2021	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	23	23	6	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	261	261	261	522		333	22	0	236	39	-2	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.0
2021	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	290	251	76	18	0	6	33	21	3	6	2	303	390	446	836	143	308	7	11	372	143	+14	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2021	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	119	105	38	9	0	0	12	11	2	3	1	362	437	448	885	86	404	9	10	400	165	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.2
2021	25	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	143	119	28	2	1	2	22	18	1	2	0	235	359	319	678	84	260	13	15	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2022	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	156	145	38	5	1	1	9	21	2	3	1	262	314	331	645	69	301	13	6	294	83	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2022	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	182	160	41	8	0	3	17	21	2	2	0	256	335	362	698	106	273	12	9	313	98	-0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2023	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	558	466	136	30	2	7	79	76	8	18	4	292	402	410	812	118	334	14	14	368	139	+25	+2	—	—	+16	4.4
2023	27	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	92	73	23	7	1	2	13	15	4	2	0	315	444	521	965	205	375	16	14	419	179	+8	+0	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	473	411	126	21	2	4	47	64	12	21	7	307	394	397	790	90	354	14	10	359	133	+18	+1	—	—	+13	3.3
2025	29	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	482	414	111	16	2	5	48	66	16	17	3	268	366	353	719	85	307	14	10	330	111	+6	+2	—	—	+14	2.2
2025	29	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	98	81	17	4	0	3	13	16	1	0	1	210	326	370	697	160	226	16	13	309	94	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	179	168	44	5	1	1	9	26	2	3	1	262	307	321	629	60	305	15	5	287	78	-5	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Wilsonlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,801 PA	5	1,801	27	5	259	301	360	+6	+13	3.4	3.4
#1Dan Wilsonlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,801 PA	/162	664	10	2	259	301	360	+2.1	+4.7	1.3	pk7: 3
#2Jose Vizcainolast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,971 PA	7	1,971	15	15	269	315	355	+3	+2	2.8	2.8
	/162	664	5	5	269	315	355	+0.9	+0.6	0.9	pk7: 3
#3Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	5	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	13	0	248	314	368	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Abraham O. Nunezlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,389 PA	8	2,389	17	24	246	315	322	+2	+9	2.5	2.7
	/162	664	5	7	246	315	322	+0.5	+2.5	0.7	pk7: 3
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#6Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	628	6	12	250	315	330	+2	-1	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	6	13	250	315	330	+2.4	-0.7	0.7	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alejo Lopez (OGILVIE)	30	60	35	55	50	264/329/357	93	291	3	6	12%	7%	93	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Irving Falu 2013 · MLB	30	59→65	39→40	53→55	47	283/317/374	91	318	5	20	13%	5%	95	+1.4	252/292/330	78	285	4	18	12%	5%	72	-0.2	269/307/361	91	294	8	13	11%	5%	84	+0.5
✕Shawn O'Malley 2017 · MLB	29	54→58	40→45	56→60	47	256/314/359	103	316	6	21	21%	7%	91	+1.1	231/286/333	102	296	8	12	23%	6%	72	-0.2	217/267/299	83	279	6	6	24%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Nick Punto 2008 · MLB	30	51→60	37→40	52→55	55	237/308/315	79	281	3	17	16%	10%	76	+0.1	241/320/320	79	289	3	19	16%	10%	83	+0.6	247/335/327	80	306	3	9	18%	12%	88	+0.4
✕Trevor Crowe 2014 · MLB	30	50→55	38→45	53→55	48	238/295/321	83	293	6	24	20%	7%	72	-0.2	229/273/332	103	273	9	17	19%	6%	66	-0.6	217/247/314	97	249	9	15	17%	4%	47	-0.9
✕Cory Sullivan 2010 · MLB	30	53→60	40→45	50	49	251/303/348	98	291	6	12	16%	7%	82	+0.5	223/288/311	88	269	6	11	18%	8%	67	-0.5	166/261/200	34	206	0	8	18%	11%	28	-0.7
✕Mike Freeman 2018 · MLB	30	56→62	39→45	56→55	45	263/313/354	90	334	6	13	22%	6%	89	+0.9	238/296/348	110	313	11	10	26%	7%	81	+0.4	219/286/325	106	292	12	7	28%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Jake Elmore 2015 · MLB	28	53→62	38→40	51→55	52	249/316/329	80	298	4	20	17%	8%	84	+0.6	224/297/281	57	269	4	15	17%	9%	64	-0.8	240/302/310	70	291	3	10	18%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Emmanuel Burriss 2015 · MLB	30	52→57	37→40	52→60	49	247/298/319	73	275	5	20	12%	6%	73	-0.1	236/279/307	71	269	4	16	13%	5%	62	-0.9	232/270/286	54	266	1	14	13%	4%	49	-0.8
✕Jemile Weeks 2016 · MLB	29	49→59	38→45	56→55	50	229/299/322	92	288	3	14	20%	8%	75	-0.0	209/272/308	99	253	5	12	18%	8%	60	-1.0	197/263/293	96	224	5	8	14%	8%	50	-0.8
✕Alden Carrithers 2015 · AAA	30	54→62	37→40	51→55	55	251/324/320	68	287	4	18	14%	9%	85	+0.7	246/312/331	85	284	7	15	15%	8%	82	+0.5	266/331/317	51	299	4	14	12%	8%	82	+0.1
✕Will Rhymes 2013 · MLB	30	54→60	39→40	48→55	52	255/311/343	88	281	6	11	12%	7%	85	+0.7	236/292/322	86	262	6	8	12%	7%	72	-0.2	234/292/313	79	259	5	6	11%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Aaron Miles 2007 · MLB	30	56→65	38→40	48→45	51	265/312/349	85	288	5	7	10%	6%	86	+0.8	271/314/349	78	298	5	5	10%	6%	87	+0.8	272/310/336	63	301	3	5	10%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Alex Sanchez 2007 · MLB	30	54→61	39→40	50→65	42	260/286/343	83	297	7	19	16%	3%	73	-0.1	259/288/364	105	289	11	16	14%	4%	81	+0.4	288/312/375	87	312	8	20	10%	3%	90	+0.6
●Corey Wimberly 2014 · AAA	30	51→61	37→40	50→65	46	237/284/311	74	270	4	18	14%	5%	65	-0.7	267/322/357	90	307	4	26	14%	5%	93	+1.3	295/355/389	94	336	3	33	12%	5%	112	+1.3
✕Eric Fryer 2016 · MLB	30	50→60	40→45	50	47	238/300/329	91	307	7	9	24%	8%	77	+0.1	233/305/317	84	300	6	7	22%	9%	76	+0.1	261/333/311	50	330	0	0	19%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Matt Tolbert 2011 · MLB	29	50→56	40→45	54→50	47	239/285/343	104	282	6	15	17%	6%	73	-0.1	213/265/287	74	260	3	13	18%	6%	51	-1.7	219/267/257	38	267	1	11	17%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Hernan Iribarren 2014 · AAA	30	51→61	37→40	54→55	45	241/291/312	72	308	4	18	22%	6%	68	-0.5	240/284/305	65	302	4	9	20%	6%	63	-0.8	268/302/341	73	327	4	3	18%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Adam Stern 2010 · AAA	30	52→56	38→40	55	45	248/292/332	84	295	5	23	17%	5%	73	-0.1	253/306/358	105	307	8	15	19%	7%	86	+0.8	274/332/382	108	334	8	11	19%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2023 · MLB	28	55→56	39→40	53→55	48	261/310/342	81	294	7	20	14%	6%	84	+0.6	256/304/349	93	299	8	18	16%	5%	84	+0.6	264/305/353	89	308	7	18	16%	4%	83	+0.3
●Kazuo Matsui 2006 · MLB	30	53→60	42→45	54→60	48	255/310/370	115	298	9	14	17%	7%	92	+1.2	264/315/379	115	309	8	24	16%	7%	96	+1.5	273/327/388	115	317	7	30	15%	7%	100	+1.2