Jackson Holliday

2B Baltimore Orioles

Age 23 L/R 5'11" / 200 lbs MLB HR +9% Svc 2.453 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	AAABAL	346	.271/.434/.477	10	8	126	—	.254/.376/.422
2024	20	MLBBAL	208	.189/.256/.311	5	4	58	-0.2
2025	21	MLBBAL	649	.242/.315/.375	17	17	93	0.5
2026	22	AAABAL	67	.183/.269/.300	1	1	30	—	.177/.239/.290
2026	22	MLBBAL	354	.229/.304/.340	7	8	76	-0.0
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	388	.246/.317/.380	10	18	94	0.7
2028PROJ82% MLB	24	MLBBAL	487	.251/.322/.397	14	23	99	1.2
2029PROJ82% MLB	25	MLBBAL	468	.253/.324/.408	15	22	103	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.453First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$3M2029Arb-2$5M2030Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed87

Barrel%44

Bat Spd43

xwOBA42

Avg EV40

Form.233/.281/.346 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .242/.311/.371

CompsRyan Kalish (age 23) · Jordan Lawlar (age 22) · Andrés Giménez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7294vR 102

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .317 / .380

PA388

HR10

SB18

K%24

BB%9

BABIP306

ISO138

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

250.231

POWER

Barrel%

447.5

Avg EV

4088.4

Bat Spd

4370.6

SPEED

Sprint

8728.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%26%▼▼29% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 24%

BB%6%▼▼0% over 59 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.113▼.068 over 59 AB (60d) · proj .130

HR/BB3.3%·2.4% over 42 BBE (60d) · proj 3.6%

BABIP.300·.268 over 41 BIP (60d) · proj .301

SLASH.233/.281/.346▼▼proj .242/.311/.371

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 857 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

225

632

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

247

312

▶▶R

ISO

107

138

▶▶R

BABIP

222

305

▶▶R

26.2%

23.7%

▶R

BB%

6.7%

8.7%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.453 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$9M	+$6M
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$9M	+$5M
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+1.3	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$16M		$29M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	57	42	10	4	0	0	15	10	0	1	1	238	439	333	772	95	312	18	26	369	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	33	22	9	1	0	1	10	2	0	3	0	409	594	591	1.185	182	400	6	30	505	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	91	75	20	4	0	2	16	17	0	1	1	267	396	400	796	133	321	19	18	364	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	164	142	48	9	3	3	21	34	0	3	1	338	423	507	930	169	425	21	13	410	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	259	207	65	11	5	5	50	54	2	17	7	314	452	488	940	174	405	21	19	420	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	67	53	21	6	1	2	14	13	0	3	0	396	522	660	1.183	264	500	19	21	509	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	208	190	36	4	2	5	15	69	2	4	0	189	256	311	567	121	265	33	7	256	58	-10	+1	+1	+2	+5	-0.2
2024	20	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	346	266	72	25	0	10	75	77	2	8	1	271	434	477	912	207	341	22	22	405	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	649	586	142	21	3	17	56	140	6	17	11	242	315	375	690	133	291	22	9	311	93	-6	-1	-5	+2	+14	0.5
2026	22	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	354	315	72	12	1	7	34	84	0	8	3	229	304	340	643	111	285	24	10	289	76	-10	+0	+0	+2	+8	-0.0
2026	22	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	67	60	11	2	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	183	269	300	569	117	256	30	9	261	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1211	1091	250	37	6	29	105	293	8	29	14	229	301	354	655	125	285	24	9	295	86	-20	+0	-4	+6	+26	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	57	47	10	4	0	0	10	13	0	1	1	213	351	298	649	85	300	23	18	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	33	26	9	1	0	1	6	3	0	3	0	346	469	500	969	154	336	9	18	422	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	91	79	19	4	0	1	12	21	0	1	1	241	341	329	670	89	313	23	13	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	164	149	47	8	3	2	14	42	0	3	1	315	374	450	824	134	416	26	9	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	259	225	61	10	5	5	32	72	2	17	7	271	367	427	793	156	372	28	12	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	67	58	19	5	1	2	9	18	0	3	0	328	418	552	970	224	438	27	13	402	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	208	190	36	4	2	5	15	69	2	4	0	189	256	311	567	121	265	33	7	254	58	-10	+1	+1	+2	+5	-0.2
2024	20	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	346	287	73	24	0	8	54	86	2	8	1	254	376	422	798	167	329	25	16	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	649	587	139	20	3	16	55	140	6	17	11	237	309	363	672	126	291	22	8	305	93	-6	-1	-5	+2	+14	0.5
2026	22	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	354	317	71	12	1	7	32	84	0	8	3	224	295	334	630	110	285	24	9	281	76	-10	+0	+0	+2	+8	-0.0
2026	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	67	62	11	2	1	1	4	24	1	1	0	177	239	290	529	113	244	36	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	90	73	20	5	0	1	16	16	0	4	1	274	404	384	788	110	333	18	18	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	90	64	19	5	0	1	25	12	0	4	1	297	494	422	916	125	346	13	28	419	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	581	511	144	25	9	10	67	152	2	24	9	282	367	425	792	143	383	26	12	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	581	477	154	30	9	12	101	118	2	24	9	323	443	499	942	176	408	20	17	419	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	554	477	109	28	2	13	69	156	4	12	1	229	331	377	708	149	308	28	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	554	456	108	29	2	15	90	146	4	12	1	237	367	408	775	171	311	26	16	349	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	649	587	139	20	3	16	55	140	6	17	11	237	309	363	672	126	285	22	8	305	93	-6	-1	-5	+2	+14	0.5
2025	21	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	649	586	142	21	3	17	56	140	6	17	11	242	315	375	690	133	291	22	9	311	93	-6	-1	-5	+2	+14	0.5
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	421	379	80	13	2	7	36	108	1	9	3	211	281	311	593	100	272	26	9	270	69	-16	+1	+0	+2	+9	-0.4
2026	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	421	375	83	14	2	8	40	104	1	9	3	221	298	333	631	112	281	25	10	285	69	-16	+1	+0	+2	+9	-0.4
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	90	74	20	5	0	1	16	16	0	4	1	270	404	378	783	108	313	18	18	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	581	507	144	25	9	10	67	152	2	24	9	284	367	428	795	144	383	26	12	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	554	476	109	28	2	13	69	156	4	12	1	229	331	378	709	149	305	28	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	649	583	139	20	3	16	55	140	6	17	11	238	309	365	674	127	291	22	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	421	381	80	13	2	7	36	108	1	9	3	210	281	310	591	100	279	26	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	554	476	109	28	2	13	69	156	4	12	1	229	331	378	709	149	305	28	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	649	583	139	20	3	16	55	140	6	17	11	238	309	365	674	127	291	22	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	421	381	80	13	2	7	36	108	1	9	3	210	281	310	591	100	279	26	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	100%	531	476	116	18	3	13	47	128	3	25	5	242	313	372	685	130	301	24	9	307	94	-4	+3	-3	+2	+12	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	100%	388	349	87	14	2	10	34	93	2	18	4	246	317	380	697	134	306	24	9	312	94	-3	+2	-3	+1	+8	0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	594	533	131	20	3	16	53	141	3	28	5	247	318	388	706	141	303	24	9	315	99	-0	+4	-4	+2	+13	1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	571	512	127	19	3	17	51	135	3	26	5	249	320	398	718	149	303	24	9	320	103	+2	+3	-4	+2	+12	1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	555	497	125	19	3	17	50	132	3	25	5	249	320	398	718	149	303	24	9	320	103	+2	+3	-4	+2	+12	1.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	539	483	120	18	3	16	49	129	2	24	5	248	319	395	714	147	302	24	9	318	102	+1	+3	-4	+2	+12	1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	525	471	116	18	2	15	47	126	2	21	4	246	317	390	707	144	301	24	9	316	100	-0	+3	-4	+2	+11	1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	510	457	111	17	2	14	46	124	2	18	4	243	314	383	698	140	300	24	9	312	97	-2	+2	-5	+2	+11	0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	495	446	106	16	2	13	44	122	2	14	3	240	311	375	686	135	297	25	9	307	94	-4	+2	-5	+2	+11	0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	482	436	103	15	2	13	42	121	1	9	2	235	305	364	669	129	294	25	9	300	89	-6	+1	-6	+2	+10	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	82%	399	360	83	12	1	10	35	102	1	4	2	229	298	350	649	121	289	26	9	292	84	-8	+0	-6	+1	+9	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	487	439	109	17	2	14	43	116	2	23	4	251	322	397	719	146	307	24	9	320	99	-0	+3	-3	+2	+11	1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	468	421	106	16	2	15	42	111	2	22	4	253	324	408	732	155	308	24	9	325	103	+1	+3	-3	+2	+10	1.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	455	409	103	16	2	14	41	108	2	21	4	253	324	407	732	154	307	24	9	325	103	+1	+3	-3	+2	+10	1.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	442	397	100	15	2	14	40	105	2	20	4	252	323	404	728	153	307	24	9	324	102	+1	+2	-3	+2	+10	1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	430	386	97	15	2	13	39	104	2	17	4	250	321	399	721	150	306	24	9	321	100	-0	+2	-3	+2	+9	0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	418	375	93	14	2	12	38	102	2	14	3	247	318	393	711	146	304	24	9	317	97	-1	+2	-4	+1	+9	0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	406	366	89	13	2	12	36	100	1	12	3	244	314	384	698	140	302	25	9	312	94	-3	+1	-4	+1	+9	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	395	356	85	13	1	11	35	99	1	8	2	239	309	373	682	134	298	25	9	305	89	-5	+1	-5	+1	+9	0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	82%	327	295	68	10	1	8	28	83	1	4	1	233	302	359	661	126	293	25	9	297	84	-6	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5039	4535	1100	166	22	142	447	1221	23	170	43	243	314	383	696	140	300	24	9	312	98	-33	+17	-38	+19	+109	7.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	141	21	3	18	58	158	3	22	6	241	313	379	692	138	299	24	9	312	98	-4	+2	-5	+3	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	7353	6571	1598	258	39	187	694	1797	34	253	64	243	319	380	698	137	305	24	9	312	98	-38	+22	-48	+24	+136	9.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	141	23	3	17	61	159	3	22	6	243	318	380	698	138	304	24	9	312	98	-4	+2	-5	+2	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 67 PAwOBA .248 → .212 (−36)K% 29.9% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.85%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	35.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.46%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.41%
HBP% /PA	1.49%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.47%
Singles /BIP	17.50%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.050	17.09%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.050	4.36%
Triples /BIP	2.50%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.050	2.55%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .248 → .212; ISO .117 → .096; BABIP .256 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 346 PAwOBA .398 → .354 (−45)K% 22.3% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.25%	÷1.070	×1.200	—	—	24.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.39%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.050	15.70%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.57%
Singles /BIP	19.58%	÷0.962	×0.930	×1.025	×1.050	20.36%
Doubles /BIP	13.23%	÷1.006	×0.830	×1.025	×1.050	11.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.025	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.29%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.90%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .398 → .354; ISO .207 → .179; BABIP .341 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 259 PAwOBA .410 → .344 (−66)K% 20.8% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.85%	÷0.986	×1.310	—	—	27.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.31%	÷0.982	×0.600	—	×1.042	12.29%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	0.62%
Singles /BIP	28.76%	÷1.037	×0.870	×1.049	×1.042	26.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.19%	÷0.980	×0.780	×1.049	×1.042	6.25%
Triples /BIP	3.27%	÷0.900	×0.850	×1.049	×1.042	3.37%
Home runs /BIP	3.27%	÷0.912	×0.880	—	×1.042	3.29%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .410 → .344; ISO .174 → .170; BABIP .405 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 164 PAwOBA .398 → .359 (−39)K% 20.7% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.73%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	25.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.59%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.56%	÷0.965	×0.970	×0.977	×1.050	31.49%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.046	×0.860	×0.977	×1.050	7.03%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷0.998	×0.950	×0.977	×1.050	2.71%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷1.208	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.88%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .398 → .359; ISO .169 → .137; BABIP .425 → .416. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 91 PAwOBA .355 → .311 (−45)K% 18.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.68%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	22.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.58%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×1.050	13.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷1.019	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	24.29%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.015	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	6.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .355 → .311; ISO .133 → .107; BABIP .321 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 67 PAwOBA .497 → .402 (−95)K% 19.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.40%	÷1.008	×1.360	—	—	26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.90%	÷1.065	×0.690	—	×1.030	13.94%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.020	×0.920	—	×1.030	27.86%
Doubles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.101	×0.830	—	×1.030	11.64%
Triples /BIP	2.50%	÷0.940	×0.910	—	×1.030	2.49%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.020	×0.800	—	×1.030	4.04%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .497 → .402; ISO .264 → .218; BABIP .500 → .438. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 57 PAwOBA .356 → .311 (−45)K% 17.5% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.54%	÷1.061	×1.360	—	—	22.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.56%	÷0.979	×0.690	—	×1.045	18.09%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.955	×0.920	—	×1.045	18.88%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.976	×0.830	—	×1.045	11.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.128	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .311; ISO .095 → .090; BABIP .312 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Orioles · 33 PAwOBA .510 → .422 (−88)K% 6.1% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.06%	÷0.988	×1.440	—	—	8.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	30.30%	÷1.031	×0.620	—	×1.008	18.36%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	35.00%	÷0.967	×0.820	—	×1.008	29.91%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.966	×0.720	—	×1.008	3.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.927	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.010	×0.780	—	×1.008	3.89%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .510 → .422; ISO .182 → .168; BABIP .400 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Delino DeShields'90-'02 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,652 PA	10.0	6,652	80	463	259*	342*	380*	+14	-17	24.9	23.2
/162	664	8	46	+1.4	-1.7	2.5	pk7: 22
#2Rickie Weeks Jr.last yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,098 PA	7.7	5,098	161	132	246	344	420	+12	-40	23.3	22.4
/162	664	21	17	+1.5	-5.2	3.0	pk7: 22
#3Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	7.3	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.7	18.1
/162	664	12	17	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	8.2	5,428	146	186	241	309	378	+19	-16	15.0	13.4
/162	664	18	23	+2.4	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 12
#4Mariano Duncan'85-'97 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,998 PA	7.5	4,998	87	174	260*	295*	402*	+25	-15	9.1	9.4
/162	664	12	23	+3.3	-2.0	1.2	pk7: 10
#5Brett Lawrielast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,417 PA	3.6	2,417	71	41	261	315	419	+9	+1	9.4	9.4
/162	664	20	11	+2.4	+0.3	2.6	pk7: 9
#6Derrel Thomas'71-'85 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,268 PA	7.9	5,268	43	140	244*	314*	360*	+18	-1	8.6	8.9
/162	664	5	18	+2.3	-0.1	1.1	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jackson Holliday (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	240/311/368	128	301	9	18	24%	9%	94	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	51→53	48→50	57→55	49	254/316/397	143	308	15	23	22%	8%	101	+1.4	234/291/348	114	301	11	21	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/264/312	94	293	8	20	27%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Jordan Lawlar 2024 · MLB	22	47→55	47→50	59→60	47	231/310/369	138	309	14	28	28%	8%	94	+0.9	240/311/398	158	324	15	25	29%	8%	100	+1.3	247/313/444	196	333	20	28	30%	7%	109	+1.0
●Andrés Giménez 2022 · MLB	23	48→58	47→50	55	40	240/296/380	140	304	15	23	26%	5%	91	+0.6	261/321/406	145	308	15	24	20%	5%	106	+1.8	260/319/392	131	301	14	27	18%	5%	103	+1.6
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	52→60	42→50	56→60	48	250/310/350	100	316	9	23	23%	8%	88	+0.4	250/312/358	108	309	10	31	21%	8%	91	+0.7	269/346/409	140	334	13	28	22%	10%	116	+2.7
✕Tyler Black 2024 · AAA	24	51→53	48→50	63→60	54	248/344/409	162	313	13	33	23%	11%	115	+2.4	235/325/365	130	309	11	28	25%	10%	98	+1.2	225/318/339	114	302	9	27	26%	10%	86	+0.2
●Jakob Marsee 2024 · AA	23	47→49	47→45	58→60	58	234/337/363	130	285	15	28	22%	12%	103	+1.5	219/318/347	128	277	12	34	24%	11%	92	+0.7	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	52→58	41→45	57→60	48	250/309/356	106	315	8	27	22%	8%	88	+0.5	254/311/364	110	310	8	26	19%	8%	92	+0.7	260/322/390	130	293	10	24	14%	8%	102	+1.4
✕Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB	23	50→53	50	58→55	49	248/318/415	167	325	17	20	28%	9%	106	+1.8	229/307/372	143	303	14	23	27%	10%	93	+0.8	213/293/369	156	278	16	28	28%	10%	85	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2016 · MLB	23	55→60	42→45	59→55	48	264/322/376	112	330	8	26	22%	8%	98	+1.2	245/303/341	96	316	8	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	238/298/327	89	312	8	20	25%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2023 · MLB	24	52→55	42→45	58→60	46	250/307/366	116	317	8	27	23%	7%	91	+0.6	247/311/349	102	333	7	31	25%	8%	88	+0.4	246/318/343	97	336	6	39	26%	9%	87	+0.2
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	54→55	46	237/301/384	147	305	16	24	27%	8%	93	+0.8	233/299/358	125	300	12	15	25%	8%	86	+0.3	230/298/342	112	290	10	18	23%	8%	81	-0.0
●Gregory Polanco 2015 · MLB	23	53→57	47→60	54→55	49	261/315/399	139	304	14	25	19%	7%	101	+1.4	254/309/406	152	296	15	20	19%	7%	101	+1.4	250/314/453	203	277	24	14	19%	8%	115	+2.1
●Kolten Wong 2015 · MLB	24	52→58	46→50	58→55	45	258/301/387	128	291	13	23	16%	5%	93	+0.8	257/319/390	133	291	12	16	16%	7%	101	+1.4	272/342/411	139	310	13	20	16%	7%	116	+1.7
✕Evan Carter 2024 · MLB	21	51→55	48→50	55	53	249/338/400	151	321	14	22	25%	11%	110	+2.1	225/311/368	143	287	14	21	25%	10%	94	+0.9	200/289/333	133	250	13	24	24%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	51→54	48→50	55→60	44	251/318/402	152	304	14	26	22%	6%	104	+1.6	228/300/350	122	292	11	19	25%	6%	86	+0.3	282/353/387	104	351	6	51	19%	6%	113	+0.7
●CJ Abrams 2024 · MLB	23	50→53	47→60	62→60	43	250/298/393	143	290	14	34	19%	4%	94	+0.9	251/312/436	185	291	20	30	21%	6%	109	+2.0	252/319/452	200	292	23	30	22%	7%	117	+2.7
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	50→53	50→45	56→50	48	247/333/406	159	303	17	23	24%	8%	111	+2.1	232/323/356	124	290	11	13	22%	9%	96	+1.0	240/326/364	124	289	12	10	20%	9%	98	+0.9
●Garrett Mitchell 2023 · MLB	24	53→59	44→50	60	44	244/316/363	119	364	11	28	34%	9%	94	+0.9	244/317/398	154	348	15	24	31%	9%	102	+1.5	257/341/429	172	366	16	21	31%	10%	119	+1.4
✕Bradley Zimmer 2016 · AA	23	47→51	46→50	58→60	41	229/299/362	132	319	14	28	31%	7%	88	+0.4	228/299/366	138	343	13	28	35%	8%	88	+0.5	230/307/358	128	349	13	28	35%	7%	90	+0.3

Jackson Holliday

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps