Elian Peña — OGILVIE

Elian PeñaSS St. Lucie Mets

Age 18 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION516 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP282

ISO139

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$130M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$14M	+$13M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.7	$13M	+$13M
2034	Arb-1	$8M	+2.7	$12M	+$9M
2035	Arb-2	$13M	+2.6	$11M	+$6M
2036	Arb-3	$19M	+2.5	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$43M		$73M	+$56M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	178	52	13	1	9	36	36	5	21	4	292	421	528	949	236	319	16	16	413	166	+17	+3	—	—	+5	2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	193	41	9	1	8	23	53	5	21	4	212	312	394	706	181	238	24	10	305	93	-2	+3	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	193	41	9	1	8	23	53	5	21	4	212	312	394	706	181	246	24	10	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	178	52	13	1	9	36	36	5	21	4	292	421	528	949	236	319	16	16	413	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	193	41	9	1	8	23	53	5	21	4	212	312	394	706	181	238	24	10	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	193	41	9	1	8	23	53	5	21	4	212	312	394	706	181	238	24	10	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	A MLE	NYM	—	516	453	90	17	2	7	49	166	10	30	9	199	291	291	582	93	293	32	9	264	65	-21	+2	+0	+6	+11	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A RAW	NYM	—	439	365	99	18	2	8	61	94	10	28	9	271	390	397	787	126	343	21	14	358	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	A+ RAW	NYM	—	77	67	11	2	1	0	9	24	0	2	0	164	263	224	487	60	250	31	12	230	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	A MLE	NYM	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		290	30	10	289	82	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	18	A MLE	NYM	—	526	462	91	17	2	7	50	169	10	30	9	197	289	288	577	91	291	32	10	265	65	-22	+2	-0	+6	+11	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	NYM	48%	557	486	109	21	2	13	55	153	11	18	5	224	317	356	673	132	296	27	10	304	92	-5	+2	-2	+6	+12	1.2
2028	20	MLB MLE	NYM	68%	602	526	122	23	3	16	59	161	12	20	6	232	323	378	702	146	298	27	10	314	99	-1	+2	-2	+6	+13	1.8
2029	21	MLB MLE	NYM	76%	627	547	130	24	3	19	63	163	12	21	6	238	330	397	726	159	299	26	10	324	106	+4	+2	-3	+7	+14	2.4
2030	22	MLB MLE	NYM	80%	637	555	135	25	3	21	64	162	13	21	6	243	335	413	748	169	300	25	10	331	110	+8	+2	-3	+7	+14	2.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	NYM	81%	631	550	135	25	3	22	64	159	12	21	6	245	337	422	759	176	301	25	10	336	114	+10	+2	-3	+7	+14	3.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	NYM	80%	639	556	137	25	3	23	65	160	13	21	6	246	339	426	765	180	302	25	10	340	116	+12	+2	-3	+7	+14	3.3
2033	25	MLB MLE	NYM	80%	642	558	138	25	3	23	66	160	13	21	6	247	341	427	767	179	302	25	10	341	117	+13	+2	-3	+7	+14	3.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	NYM	79%	644	559	139	25	3	24	67	160	13	21	6	249	343	433	776	184	302	25	10	342	118	+14	+2	-3	+7	+14	3.4
2035	27	MLB MLE	NYM	78%	641	556	137	25	3	23	67	160	13	21	6	246	341	426	767	180	301	25	10	342	118	+14	+2	-3	+7	+14	3.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	NYM	77%	633	548	135	24	3	23	67	159	13	20	6	246	342	427	769	181	301	25	11	341	117	+13	+2	-3	+7	+14	3.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	NYM	75%	622	539	131	24	2	22	66	157	12	18	5	243	339	417	756	174	300	25	11	340	116	+12	+2	-4	+7	+13	3.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	NYM	74%	610	528	127	23	2	21	65	156	12	16	4	241	337	411	748	170	300	26	11	337	114	+10	+2	-5	+7	+13	2.8
2039	31	MLB MLE	NYM	73%	596	516	124	22	2	21	63	154	12	14	4	240	337	413	750	172	297	26	11	333	112	+8	+1	-5	+6	+13	2.4
2040	32	MLB MLE	NYM	72%	577	500	117	21	2	19	61	151	11	11	3	234	330	398	728	164	294	26	11	328	108	+5	+1	-6	+6	+13	2.0
2041	33	MLB MLE	NYM	72%	547	474	110	19	2	18	58	146	10	8	2	232	328	395	723	162	290	27	11	321	103	+2	+1	-6	+6	+12	1.5
2042	34	MLB MLE	NYM	68%	499	435	96	16	2	15	52	137	9	5	1	221	317	370	687	149	284	27	10	312	97	-1	+1	-7	+5	+11	0.9
2043	35	MLB MLE	NYM	63%	443	386	82	13	1	13	46	125	8	3	1	212	309	352	661	140	278	28	10	302	91	-5	+0	-7	+5	+10	0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	NYM	48%	269	236	52	10	1	6	26	74	5	9	2	220	311	347	658	127	288	28	10	285	92	-3	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.6
2028	20	MLB CTX	NYM	68%	410	358	81	15	2	11	41	110	8	13	4	226	319	372	691	145	290	27	10	295	99	-1	+1	-2	+4	+9	1.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	NYM	76%	478	418	96	18	2	14	48	124	9	16	4	230	322	383	705	153	291	26	10	305	106	+3	+2	-2	+5	+10	1.9
2030	22	MLB CTX	NYM	80%	507	441	104	19	2	17	51	129	10	17	5	236	329	404	732	168	292	25	10	312	110	+6	+1	-2	+5	+11	2.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	NYM	81%	511	444	106	19	2	18	52	129	10	17	5	239	332	412	744	173	293	25	10	317	114	+8	+1	-2	+5	+11	2.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	NYM	80%	512	445	106	19	2	18	52	128	10	17	5	238	331	411	743	173	293	25	10	320	116	+10	+1	-2	+5	+11	2.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	NYM	80%	511	443	107	19	2	19	53	127	10	17	5	242	336	422	758	181	294	25	10	322	117	+10	+1	-2	+5	+11	2.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	NYM	79%	512	444	107	19	2	19	53	127	10	17	5	241	335	421	756	180	293	25	10	322	118	+11	+1	-2	+5	+11	2.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	NYM	78%	499	434	104	19	2	18	52	124	10	16	5	240	335	417	752	177	293	25	10	323	118	+11	+1	-2	+5	+11	2.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	NYM	77%	487	423	102	18	2	18	51	122	10	15	4	241	337	421	758	180	293	25	10	322	117	+10	+1	-3	+5	+11	2.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	NYM	75%	465	404	97	17	2	17	49	118	9	13	4	240	335	418	754	178	292	25	11	320	116	+9	+1	-3	+5	+10	2.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	NYM	74%	449	389	92	16	2	16	48	115	9	12	3	237	334	411	745	175	291	26	11	318	114	+8	+1	-3	+5	+10	2.0
2039	31	MLB CTX	NYM	73%	434	377	89	16	2	15	46	112	8	10	3	236	332	408	740	172	289	26	11	314	112	+6	+1	-4	+5	+9	1.7
2040	32	MLB CTX	NYM	72%	418	363	83	15	1	14	44	110	8	8	2	229	325	391	716	163	286	26	11	309	108	+4	+1	-4	+4	+9	1.4
2041	33	MLB CTX	NYM	72%	395	342	77	13	1	13	42	106	8	6	2	225	324	383	707	158	282	27	11	302	103	+2	+0	-5	+4	+9	1.0
2042	34	MLB CTX	NYM	68%	338	294	63	10	1	10	35	93	6	4	1	214	310	357	668	143	277	28	10	294	97	-1	+0	-5	+4	+7	0.6
2043	35	MLB CTX	NYM	63%	280	244	51	8	1	8	29	79	5	2	1	209	306	348	654	139	271	28	10	285	91	-3	+0	-5	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7475	6499	1517	270	29	251	772	1927	145	209	60	233	328	400	728	166	291	26	10	312	109	+90	+18	-48	+80	+162	30.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	132	23	3	22	67	168	13	18	5	234	329	402	730	168	291	26	10	312	109	+8	+2	-4	+7	+14	2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	10380	9021	2146	389	43	344	1072	2679	204	301	83	238	332	405	737	167	298	26	10	329	109	+113	+24	-66	+109	+220	40.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	135	24	3	22	67	168	13	19	5	239	333	409	742	170	299	26	10	329	109	+7	+2	-4	+7	+14	2.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kyle Seagerlast yr '21 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,204 PA	9.3	6,204	242	55	251	321	442	+22	+55	35.4	32.4
/162	664	26	6	+2.4	+5.8	3.8	pk7: 29
#2Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	11.7	7,769	257	217	240	330	407	+79	+2	40.6	31.2
/162	664	22	19	+6.7	+0.1	3.5	pk7: 22
#3Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	8.3	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
/162	664	28	3	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#4Brian Dozierlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 4,884 PA	7.4	4,884	192	105	245	326	442	+20	+24	27.7	27.6
/162	664	26	14	+2.7	+3.2	3.8	pk7: 28
#5Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	7.4	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
/162	664	29	10	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
#6Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elian Peña (OGILVIE)	18	25→50	40→55	40	46	212/303/325	114	290	5	14	28%	10%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	89	+0.5	191/267/284	93	292	7	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	188/237/266	78	247	8	4	27%	6%	40	-0.9
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51	43→50	50→55	51	244/315/357	114	300	9	14	21%	9%	92	+0.7	228/318/325	97	308	8	17	26%	11%	86	+0.3	228/320/369	141	283	16	24	24%	11%	94	+0.8
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	42→52	47→50	45→40	47	215/281/345	130	270	15	5	26%	8%	77	-0.3	241/299/370	129	293	14	4	22%	7%	89	+0.5	255/314/382	127	304	14	3	20%	7%	96	+0.9
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	52→58	41→45	46→50	51	249/316/346	97	301	9	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	231/301/326	95	276	7	10	18%	9%	79	-0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
●Gary Sánchez 2011 · A	18	49→50	47→65	46→45	39	241/294/380	139	328	14	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	221/270/362	141	305	16	6	32%	6%	77	-0.3	240/315/462	222	266	31	4	23%	8%	115	+1.9
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	51	50→60	45→50	41	254/302/415	161	312	16	9	24%	5%	101	+1.4	215/280/315	100	345	8	5	37%	7%	70	-0.9	183/261/256	73	332	4	0	42%	8%	46	-0.6
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	85	+0.2	217/274/360	143	325	13	6	35%	6%	78	-0.3	230/313/394	163	297	19	6	28%	10%	99	+1.3
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	55	216/324/330	114	293	8	18	27%	12%	91	+0.6	237/321/380	143	308	13	20	25%	10%	100	+1.3	237/324/389	152	306	14	21	25%	10%	100	+0.9
●Andrés Giménez 2017 · A	18	52→60	40→50	48→55	57	247/331/355	109	280	6	11	14%	10%	98	+1.2	235/295/332	97	297	6	18	22%	5%	79	-0.2	260/325/413	154	312	16	25	21%	5%	105	+1.5
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
✕Victor Ortega 2023 · A	19	48	38→45	43→45	50	224/305/303	79	298	4	6	24%	9%	76	-0.4	218/318/280	62	282	2	7	20%	12%	76	-0.4	223/337/308	85	295	4	3	22%	13%	89	+0.2
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→46	42→50	44→50	46	226/320/334	108	300	8	7	26%	8%	90	+0.6	212/310/340	128	285	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.4	217/303/361	144	274	17	12	26%	7%	88	+0.4
●Wander Franco 2019 · A	18	51→57	49→55	49→55	50	256/306/410	154	268	17	5	12%	6%	101	+1.4	263/317/398	135	286	11	9	12%	7%	102	+1.5	278/337/452	174	298	16	20	12%	8%	118	+2.0
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	231/283/363	132	287	14	9	25%	6%	82	-0.0	251/300/422	171	316	18	7	26%	6%	101	+1.4	287/349/471	183	334	20	4	19%	8%	128	+3.6
●Jeimer Candelario 2013 · A	19	50→57	40→60	44→45	52	240/311/338	98	300	7	5	22%	9%	86	+0.3	209/264/324	115	262	10	2	23%	7%	65	-1.2	251/327/436	184	301	19	3	22%	9%	112	+2.1
✕Ravel Santana 2011 · A	19	43	46→50	51→55	47	216/296/344	128	273	15	16	26%	8%	83	+0.1	220/281/361	141	294	15	13	29%	7%	80	-0.1	205/253/387	182	264	22	15	31%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Adael Amador 2023 · A	20	51→54	46→50	46→55	55	252/334/383	131	290	14	14	18%	10%	105	+1.7	229/302/359	130	266	15	21	19%	9%	88	+0.4	216/294/338	122	249	13	22	19%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Ronny Hernandez 2023 · A	18	41→51	46→40	48→30	46	210/280/342	132	269	14	5	27%	8%	76	-0.4	221/290/299	78	301	5	3	26%	8%	70	-0.9	227/300/318	90	289	10	1	23%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Cam Collier 2023 · A	18	48→42	45	43→40	46	235/305/360	125	315	13	6	28%	8%	89	+0.5	208/288/307	99	310	9	3	33%	9%	72	-0.7	204/288/299	95	305	9	2	33%	9%	67	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps