Elian Peña — OGILVIE

Elian PeñaSS St. Lucie Mets

Age 18 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A H +5%HR +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 5.1 · 2034

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .293 / .362

PA209

HR5

SB9

K%27

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

29↗49

PWR

40↗55

SPD

44↘38

FLD

35↗50

EYE

59↘44

trajectory · 10 yrs

5.4peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+4.3	$40M	+$39M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+4.7	$45M	+$44M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+5.0	$49M	+$48M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+5.1	$52M	+$41M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+5.1	$53M	+$36M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+4.9	$53M	+$28M
Totals		$55M		$292M	+$236M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	223	192	42	10	1	9	24	55	5	21	4	.219	.321	.422	.743	.203	.254	25	11	.318	102	+0	+3	+0	+2	+6	1.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	18	A	St. Lucie Mets	82	70	20	5	0	1	10	16	1	6	1	.286	.383	.400	.783	.114	.352	20	12	.334	114	+1	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.5
ROS	18	MLB	NYM	127	114	27	5	1	3	11	32	1	3	1	.237	.310	.377	.687	.140	.300	25	9	.305	92	-1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.4
TOT	18	MLB	NYM	209	184	47	10	1	4	21	48	2	9	2	.255	.338	.386	.724	.130	.321	23	10	.316	100	+0	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	19	MLB 11%	NYM	296	264	67	12	2	8	26	72	4	7	1	.254	.330	.405	.735	.152	.311	24	9	.323	105	+2	+1	-1	+3	+8	1.3
2028	20	MLB 28%	NYM	412	366	93	16	2	12	37	98	6	9	2	.254	.333	.407	.740	.153	.316	24	9	.334	114	+6	+1	-2	+4	+12	2.2
2029	21	MLB 48%	NYM	497	440	115	20	3	16	47	116	7	10	2	.261	.342	.430	.772	.168	.316	23	9	.341	119	+11	+1	-2	+5	+14	3.0
2030	22	MLB 65%	NYM	557	490	129	22	3	19	54	127	8	10	2	.263	.346	.437	.783	.173	.316	23	10	.348	125	+15	+1	-2	+6	+16	3.7
2031	23	MLB 86%	NYM	597	523	140	24	3	22	60	134	9	9	2	.268	.353	.451	.804	.184	.316	22	10	.354	129	+20	+1	-2	+6	+17	4.3
2032	24	MLB	NYM	624	546	146	25	3	23	64	138	9	9	2	.267	.354	.451	.804	.183	.317	22	10	.358	132	+23	+1	-3	+7	+18	4.7
2033	25	MLB	NYM	639	557	150	26	3	24	67	140	10	9	1	.269	.358	.456	.814	.187	.318	22	10	.362	135	+25	+1	-3	+7	+18	5.0
2034	26	MLB	NYM	645	561	152	26	3	25	69	141	10	8	1	.271	.361	.462	.823	.191	.318	22	11	.363	136	+26	+1	-3	+7	+18	5.1
2035	27	MLB	NYM	644	559	152	26	3	25	70	142	10	8	1	.272	.363	.463	.826	.191	.318	22	11	.363	136	+26	+1	-3	+7	+18	5.1
2036	28	MLB	NYM	639	554	149	25	3	24	70	142	10	7	1	.269	.361	.455	.816	.186	.318	22	11	.362	135	+26	+1	-3	+7	+18	4.9
2037	29	MLB	NYM	629	545	147	25	3	24	69	141	10	7	0	.270	.362	.459	.821	.189	.317	22	11	.360	134	+24	+1	-4	+7	+18	4.7
2038	30	MLB	NYM	618	536	142	24	3	23	68	141	9	6	0	.265	.357	.450	.807	.185	.316	23	11	.357	131	+22	+1	-5	+7	+18	4.4
2039	31	MLB	NYM	604	524	138	23	3	22	66	140	9	5	0	.263	.356	.445	.800	.181	.315	23	11	.353	128	+19	+1	-5	+6	+17	4.0
2040	32	MLB	NYM	585	507	132	22	3	21	64	139	9	5	0	.260	.353	.440	.793	.179	.313	24	11	.348	125	+16	+1	-6	+6	+17	3.5
2041	33	MLB	NYM	556	482	122	20	2	19	61	136	8	4	0	.253	.347	.421	.768	.168	.312	24	11	.343	120	+13	+1	-6	+6	+16	2.9
2042	34	MLB	NYM	508	441	109	18	2	16	55	128	7	4	0	.247	.340	.406	.746	.159	.310	25	11	.336	115	+9	+1	-7	+5	+14	2.3
2043	35	MLB	NYM	451	394	95	15	2	14	48	119	6	4	0	.241	.333	.396	.729	.155	.308	26	11	.328	109	+5	+1	-7	+5	+13	1.6
2044	36	MLB	NYM	390	341	81	13	2	11	41	107	5	4	0	.238	.328	.384	.712	.147	.305	27	11	.318	102	+1	+1	-8	+4	+11	0.9
2045	37	MLB	NYM	325	284	65	10	1	9	34	92	4	3	0	.229	.320	.366	.686	.137	.301	28	10	.308	94	-2	+1	-8	+3	+9	0.3
2046	38	MLB	NYM	255	224	49	7	1	6	26	74	3	2	0	.219	.308	.339	.648	.121	.296	29	10	.297	86	-4	+0	-9	+3	+7	-0.3
2047	39	MLB	NYM	180	158	34	5	1	4	18	53	2	1	0	.215	.303	.335	.639	.120	.290	29	10	.286	77	-5	+0	-9	+2	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11001	9602	2476	419	53	379	1149	2607	161	155	20	.258	.347	.431	.778	.173	.314	24	10	.345	122	+277	+23	-98	+118	+312	64.5
/ 162G	—			650	567	146	25	3	22	68	154	10	9	1	.257	.347	.429	.776	.171	.315	24	10	.345	122	+16	+1	-6	+7	+18	3.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	223	178	52	13	1	9	36	36	5	21	4	.292	.421	.528	.949	.236	.319	16	16	.413	174	+19	+3	—	—	+6	2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elian Peña (OGILVIE)	18	29→49	40→55	44→38	44	.224/.293/.362	.138	.289	5	3	27%	8%	84	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	46→50	46→40	47	.216/.283/.346	.130	.273	14	5	26%	8%	75	-0.0	.241/.299/.377	.136	.292	16	4	22%	7%	90	+1.0	.259/.317/.396	.137	.305	16	3	20%	7%	100	+1.5
★Xander Bogaerts 2012 · A	19	43→53	49→60	42→55	41	.222/.273/.365	.143	.281	17	4	27%	6%	76	+0.0	.244/.297/.396	.152	.312	17	5	26%	6%	94	+1.3	.293/.370/.507	.214	.325	27	7	18%	10%	148	+4.3
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	.231/.283/.361	.130	.288	14	9	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.250/.299/.420	.170	.314	19	7	26%	6%	101	+1.8	.291/.353/.484	.193	.337	22	4	20%	8%	135	+4.6
★Austin Riley 2016 · A	19	44→54	49→65	45→40	38	.218/.279/.361	.143	.320	17	5	36%	6%	78	+0.2	.214/.260/.366	.152	.309	18	3	36%	5%	71	-0.3	.273/.345/.498	.224	.325	30	1	25%	8%	136	+4.9
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A	18	41→49	44→55	48→45	41	.207/.263/.315	.109	.281	12	4	30%	6%	59	-1.1	.234/.289/.391	.157	.301	19	7	28%	7%	89	+1.0	.233/.291/.410	.177	.289	23	6	27%	7%	93	+1.0
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	45→60	43→30	45	.215/.274/.337	.122	.275	14	3	27%	7%	69	-0.4	.206/.251/.346	.140	.279	17	2	32%	5%	62	-0.9	.246/.306/.451	.204	.321	28	0	31%	7%	109	+2.0
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	.227/.283/.373	.146	.325	15	6	34%	7%	82	+0.5	.215/.270/.360	.145	.319	14	6	35%	6%	73	-0.1	.230/.314/.391	.161	.298	19	6	28%	10%	98	+1.6
●Gary Sánchez 2011 · A	18	49→51	47→65	46→45	39	.239/.293/.375	.135	.327	14	5	30%	6%	86	+0.8	.220/.268/.368	.148	.299	18	6	32%	5%	75	-0.0	.232/.315/.480	.248	.254	37	1	26%	9%	119	+2.3
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	44→50	45	51	.220/.307/.353	.132	.309	10	8	30%	11%	87	+0.8	.194/.270/.290	.096	.293	8	5	33%	9%	56	-1.3	.183/.230/.260	.077	.238	8	4	26%	5%	28	-1.0
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	44→52	49→65	49→45	45	.226/.283/.369	.143	.276	17	6	25%	7%	81	+0.4	.250/.300/.421	.171	.300	23	7	24%	6%	102	+1.8	.258/.305/.479	.221	.284	33	5	22%	6%	116	+2.6
●Miguel Sanó 2012 · A	19	40→50	52→70	45	36	.209/.255/.376	.167	.298	20	5	36%	6%	71	-0.3	.215/.290/.419	.204	.296	26	6	35%	9%	98	+1.6	.243/.334/.470	.227	.340	31	2	35%	11%	124	+3.1
●Mike Moustakas 2009 · A	20	43→53	49→65	46→45	43	.223/.271/.366	.143	.257	17	6	21%	5%	76	+0.0	.229/.265/.387	.158	.262	19	5	21%	4%	78	+0.2	.258/.320/.491	.233	.260	33	2	16%	7%	121	+3.2
●Jesse Winker 2013 · A	19	51→61	41→55	45	46	.240/.306/.344	.104	.324	8	4	27%	8%	84	+0.6	.238/.310/.370	.132	.296	13	5	23%	9%	92	+1.2	.272/.369/.498	.227	.291	28	1	17%	11%	143	+2.8
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	51	51→60	46→50	41	.257/.304/.425	.168	.315	17	9	24%	5%	105	+2.1	.220/.283/.330	.110	.348	9	5	36%	7%	71	-0.3	.183/.261/.257	.074	.337	5	0	43%	8%	40	-0.6
★Carlos Correa 2014 · A	19	52→62	42→60	44→55	45	.248/.303/.360	.112	.313	8	7	23%	6%	86	+0.8	.266/.331/.425	.159	.323	15	16	21%	8%	115	+2.8	.284/.360/.488	.204	.328	24	14	20%	10%	137	+4.4
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→55	49→55	45	.217/.279/.319	.102	.277	10	10	25%	7%	66	-0.6	.233/.280/.389	.156	.311	18	19	30%	6%	85	+0.7	.261/.307/.430	.168	.314	19	26	23%	6%	101	+1.8
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	49→55	47→50	43	.236/.291/.385	.149	.313	18	7	30%	7%	89	+0.9	.245/.301/.404	.159	.345	17	4	32%	7%	98	+1.6	.246/.310/.419	.172	.343	19	2	32%	8%	103	+1.8
✕Ronny Hernandez 2023 · A	18	42→52	45→40	48→40	46	.209/.278/.331	.122	.272	12	5	27%	8%	69	-0.4	.220/.290/.298	.078	.301	5	3	26%	8%	65	-0.7	.220/.292/.279	.059	.300	4	2	26%	9%	58	-0.6
●Iván Herrera 2018 · A	18	50→57	37→50	44→50	42	.231/.298/.310	.079	.319	4	5	27%	6%	72	-0.2	.233/.297/.322	.089	.310	7	4	25%	6%	74	-0.1	.278/.371/.439	.161	.339	19	13	22%	11%	132	+2.8
●Willy Adames 2015 · A	19	48→53	41→60	47→50	46	.224/.293/.338	.114	.316	6	6	29%	8%	76	+0.1	.224/.290/.335	.111	.332	7	8	32%	8%	75	-0.0	.263/.332/.462	.199	.341	24	5	28%	9%	122	+2.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)