Elian Peña — OGILVIE

Elian PeñaSS St. Lucie Mets

Age 18 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION337 act + 224 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .319 / .337

PA224

HR4

SB11

K%25

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.7	$20M	+$20M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.9	$20M	+$19M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+4.1	$19M	+$19M
2034	Arb-1	$8M	+4.1	$18M	+$14M
2035	Arb-2	$14M	+4.1	$17M	+$11M
2036	Arb-3	$20M	+3.9	$15M	+$8M
Totals		$45M		$108M	+$91M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	192	42	10	1	9	24	55	5	21	4	219	321	422	743	203	254	25	11	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	178	52	13	1	9	36	36	5	21	4	292	421	528	949	236	319	16	16	413	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	A	NYM	—	337	291	60	10	1	3	37	94	7	26	7	206	310	278	589	72	291	28	11	270	65	-13	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.2
YTD	18	A	NYM	—	337	276	71	12	1	3	52	66	7	26	7	257	388	341	729	83	325	20	15	340	118	+7	+2	+0	+4	+10	2.3
ROS	18	A	NYM	0%	224	195	44	8	1	4	23	56	4	11	3	225	319	337	656	112	290	25	10	299	87	-3	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.6
ROS	18	MLB	NYM	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		289	—	—	286	77	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	A	NYM	—	337	292	60	10	1	3	37	94	7	26	7	205	310	277	588	72	289	28	11	270	65	-13	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.2
TOT	18	A	NYM	—	561	486	104	18	2	7	60	150	11	37	10	214	314	302	616	88	292	27	11	282	74	-17	+3	-1	+6	+16	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	NYM	48%	581	506	116	21	2	12	60	143	10	19	5	229	323	350	673	121	294	25	10	308	94	-4	+2	-2	+6	+16	1.8
2028	20	MLB	NYM	68%	609	530	125	23	2	15	63	147	11	20	5	236	329	372	701	136	296	24	10	318	102	+1	+2	-2	+7	+17	2.5
2029	21	MLB	NYM	76%	627	545	133	24	3	18	65	148	12	20	5	244	338	398	736	154	297	24	10	327	108	+6	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.1
2030	22	MLB	NYM	80%	638	555	137	24	3	20	66	148	12	21	5	247	340	409	749	162	298	23	10	333	113	+10	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.5
2031	23	MLB	NYM	81%	636	552	138	24	3	21	67	146	12	21	5	250	344	418	762	168	299	23	11	338	117	+12	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.7
2032	24	MLB	NYM	80%	639	555	139	24	3	22	67	146	12	21	5	250	344	423	767	173	300	23	10	342	120	+14	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.9
2033	25	MLB	NYM	80%	642	557	140	24	3	22	68	146	12	21	5	251	345	424	769	172	300	23	11	344	121	+15	+2	-3	+7	+18	4.1
2034	26	MLB	NYM	79%	644	559	142	25	3	23	68	147	12	21	5	254	347	433	780	179	300	23	11	345	122	+16	+2	-3	+7	+18	4.1
2035	27	MLB	NYM	78%	641	555	140	24	3	23	69	146	12	21	5	252	347	431	778	178	300	23	11	345	122	+16	+2	-3	+7	+18	4.1
2036	28	MLB	NYM	77%	633	547	137	24	2	22	69	145	12	19	5	250	347	422	769	172	299	23	11	344	121	+15	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.9
2037	29	MLB	NYM	75%	622	537	133	23	2	21	68	144	12	18	5	248	345	415	760	168	299	23	11	342	120	+14	+2	-4	+7	+18	3.7
2038	30	MLB	NYM	74%	610	528	131	23	2	21	66	143	11	16	4	248	344	419	762	170	298	23	11	339	118	+12	+2	-5	+7	+17	3.4
2039	31	MLB	NYM	73%	596	515	126	22	2	20	65	142	11	13	3	245	342	412	753	167	296	24	11	336	115	+10	+1	-5	+6	+17	3.0
2040	32	MLB	NYM	72%	577	499	119	20	2	18	63	139	10	11	3	238	336	395	730	156	293	24	11	330	111	+7	+1	-6	+6	+16	2.5
2041	33	MLB	NYM	72%	547	473	111	18	2	17	59	135	10	8	2	235	332	389	721	154	289	25	11	323	106	+4	+1	-6	+6	+15	2.0
2042	34	MLB	NYM	68%	499	433	100	16	2	15	54	126	9	5	1	231	329	381	710	150	283	25	11	315	99	-0	+1	-7	+5	+14	1.3
2043	35	MLB	NYM	63%	443	385	84	13	1	12	47	115	8	3	1	218	316	351	667	132	277	26	11	305	92	-4	+0	-7	+5	+13	0.6
2044	36	MLB	NYM	54%	382	333	70	10	1	10	40	103	6	2	0	210	306	336	642	126	271	27	10	295	84	-7	+0	-8	+4	+11	0.0
2045	37	MLB	NYM	45%	316	275	56	8	1	7	33	87	5	1	0	204	300	316	617	113	264	28	10	283	75	-9	+0	-8	+3	+9	-0.5
2046	38	MLB	NYM	31%	247	216	42	5	1	5	25	70	4	0	0	194	290	296	586	102	257	28	10	272	66	-9	+0	-9	+3	+7	-0.9
2027	19	MLB	NYM	48%	281	245	56	10	1	6	29	69	5	9	2	229	323	351	674	122	293	25	10	294	84	-5	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.6
2028	20	MLB	NYM	68%	415	361	85	15	2	10	43	100	8	13	4	235	330	371	701	136	296	24	10	304	91	-4	+1	-2	+4	+12	1.2
2029	21	MLB	NYM	76%	478	416	101	18	2	14	50	113	9	15	4	243	337	397	733	154	297	24	10	313	98	-1	+1	-2	+5	+14	1.7
2030	22	MLB	NYM	80%	508	441	109	19	2	16	53	118	9	16	4	247	340	408	748	161	298	23	10	320	103	+2	+2	-2	+5	+14	2.1
2031	23	MLB	NYM	81%	515	446	112	20	2	17	54	119	10	17	4	251	345	419	764	168	299	23	10	324	106	+4	+2	-2	+6	+15	2.4
2032	24	MLB	NYM	80%	512	443	110	19	2	17	54	117	10	17	4	248	343	415	759	167	299	23	11	328	109	+5	+2	-2	+5	+15	2.5
2033	25	MLB	NYM	80%	511	442	111	19	2	18	54	116	10	17	4	251	346	425	771	174	300	23	11	330	110	+6	+2	-2	+5	+14	2.6
2034	26	MLB	NYM	79%	512	443	111	19	2	18	54	117	10	17	4	251	345	424	770	174	299	23	11	330	111	+6	+2	-2	+5	+15	2.7
2035	27	MLB	NYM	78%	499	433	109	19	2	18	54	114	9	16	4	252	347	430	776	178	299	23	11	331	111	+6	+2	-2	+5	+14	2.6
2036	28	MLB	NYM	77%	487	422	105	18	2	17	53	112	9	15	4	249	345	422	767	173	299	23	11	330	110	+6	+1	-3	+5	+14	2.4
2037	29	MLB	NYM	75%	465	402	100	17	2	16	51	108	9	13	3	249	346	420	767	172	298	23	11	328	109	+5	+1	-3	+5	+13	2.2
2038	30	MLB	NYM	74%	449	389	97	17	2	15	49	105	8	12	3	249	345	419	764	170	297	23	11	326	107	+4	+1	-3	+5	+13	1.9
2039	31	MLB	NYM	73%	434	376	91	16	1	14	47	103	8	10	3	242	339	402	740	160	295	24	11	322	104	+2	+1	-4	+5	+12	1.6
2040	32	MLB	NYM	72%	418	362	86	15	1	13	45	101	8	8	2	238	335	392	727	155	292	24	11	317	101	+0	+1	-4	+4	+12	1.3
2041	33	MLB	NYM	72%	395	342	80	13	1	12	43	97	7	6	1	234	332	383	715	149	288	25	11	310	96	-2	+1	-5	+4	+11	1.0
2042	34	MLB	NYM	68%	338	293	67	11	1	10	36	85	6	4	1	229	325	375	701	147	283	25	11	302	89	-4	+0	-5	+4	+10	0.5
2043	35	MLB	NYM	63%	280	243	54	8	1	8	30	73	5	2	1	222	320	362	682	140	277	26	11	292	82	-6	+0	-5	+3	+8	0.1
2044	36	MLB	NYM	54%	207	179	38	5	1	5	22	56	4	1	0	212	312	335	647	123	271	27	11	282	74	-6	+0	-4	+2	+6	-0.2
2045	37	MLB	NYM	45%	143	125	24	3	0	3	15	39	2	0	0	192	289	288	577	96	264	27	10	271	65	-6	+0	-4	+2	+4	-0.4
2046	38	MLB	NYM	31%	77	68	14	2	0	2	8	22	1	0	0	206	299	324	622	118	257	29	10	260	57	-4	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7924	6872	1660	283	29	249	844	1884	147	208	52	242	337	400	737	158	295	24	11	317	101	+8	+21	-59	+85	+225	28.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	135	23	2	20	69	155	12	17	4	239	335	394	729	154	293	24	11	317	101	+1	+2	-5	+7	+18	2.3
Career	—			—	11576	10042	2405	413	45	357	1229	2777	212	313	76	239	335	396	731	157	294	24	11	327	109	+115	+32	-92	+124	+328	51.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	135	23	3	20	69	156	12	18	4	239	335	397	732	158	294	24	11	327	109	+6	+2	-5	+7	+18	2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	223	178	52	13	1	9	36	36	5	21	4	292	421	528	949	236	319	16	16	413	174	+19	+3	—	—	+6	2.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA	14	7,291	202	17	267	329	423	+66	+63	42.9	37.5
	/162	664	18	2	267	329	423	+6.1	+5.8	3.9	pk7: 32
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	8,217	257	214	243	334	402	+79	+2	43.4	33.2
	/162	664	21	17	243	334	402	+6.4	+0.1	3.5	pk7: 23
#2Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	15	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
	/162	664	17	8	266	329	423	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#3Jason Variteklast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,047 PA	12	5,047	166	22	255	343	431	+61	+15	33.1	30.8
	/162	664	22	3	255	343	431	+8.0	+1.9	4.4	pk7: 28
#4Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#5Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	11	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	24.9
	/162	664	20	20	263	315	427	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#6Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	10	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
	/162	664	17	18	260	333	416	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elian Peña (OGILVIE)	18	25→50	40→55	40	46	214/314/302	88	292	7	37	27%	11%	74	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	47→50	45→40	47	217/283/352	135	277	15	5	27%	8%	76	+0.1	243/301/378	135	296	16	4	23%	7%	91	+1.1	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	88	+0.9	191/266/284	93	290	7	5	34%	9%	52	-1.6	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	82	+0.5	219/304/418	199	291	25	6	32%	9%	104	+2.0	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Gary Sánchez 2011 · A	18	49→50	47→65	46→45	39	241/294/380	139	328	14	5	30%	6%	89	+0.9	220/266/356	136	305	16	6	32%	5%	71	-0.3	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4
●Wander Franco 2019 · A	18	51→57	49→55	49→55	50	256/306/410	154	268	17	5	12%	6%	101	+1.8	263/317/396	133	286	11	9	12%	7%	101	+1.8	277/337/454	176	296	17	20	12%	8%	121	+2.4
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	83	+0.6	217/273/363	146	324	14	6	35%	6%	76	+0.0	247/298/412	164	344	17	8	31%	6%	96	+1.3
●Andrés Giménez 2017 · A	18	52→60	40→50	48→55	57	247/331/355	109	280	6	11	14%	10%	98	+1.6	236/297/336	100	298	6	18	22%	6%	78	+0.2	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→42	42→50	44→50	45	227/318/334	107	303	8	7	26%	7%	88	+0.9	214/310/343	129	287	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.9	219/307/369	150	281	18	13	27%	8%	90	+0.9
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51→42	43→45	51→55	52	244/320/360	116	300	9	14	21%	9%	94	+1.3	228/320/325	97	311	8	17	26%	11%	85	+0.7	226/320/360	134	289	14	26	25%	12%	91	+0.8
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	43→53	50→70	49→45	44	225/281/372	147	272	18	5	25%	7%	82	+0.5	253/302/420	167	306	22	7	25%	6%	102	+1.9	260/323/512	251	270	38	5	20%	8%	130	+3.2
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→59	41→50	49→50	58	241/333/346	105	301	8	10	21%	12%	96	+1.5	249/334/387	138	332	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	244/330/384	140	317	13	15	25%	11%	101	+1.8
●Willy Adames 2014 · A	18	44→52	37→65	43→50	55	202/304/287	85	274	3	9	25%	12%	69	-0.4	223/289/336	113	341	7	7	33%	8%	74	-0.1	236/326/443	207	281	27	11	26%	11%	115	+3.1
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→60	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	90	+1.0	242/299/403	161	346	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.5	244/307/431	187	323	23	5	30%	8%	103	+1.7
★Xander Bogaerts 2012 · A	19	42→52	49→60	41→55	41	218/270/362	144	284	17	4	29%	6%	74	-0.1	241/295/389	148	309	16	5	26%	6%	91	+1.1	287/361/450	163	330	18	10	18%	9%	131	+4.1
✕Héctor Sánchez 2008 · A	18	46→50	44→50	44→30	50	226/297/346	120	261	11	6	18%	8%	81	+0.4	242/307/346	104	291	8	4	18%	7%	85	+0.7	252/291/373	121	310	13	0	22%	4%	83	+0.3
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	53→58	41→45	46→50	52	253/323/352	98	306	9	15	19%	9%	92	+1.2	232/301/330	98	277	8	10	18%	9%	78	+0.2	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
✕Jaff Decker 2010 · A	20	51→49	48→55	47→55	56	244/344/393	149	323	15	9	27%	12%	113	+2.6	218/300/401	183	287	23	9	31%	10%	98	+1.6	196/280/384	188	248	24	10	31%	9%	83	+0.4
✕Cam Collier 2023 · A	18	48→40	45	43→40	46	235/304/361	127	314	13	6	28%	8%	88	+0.9	203/284/296	93	304	8	3	33%	9%	63	-0.8	198/276/308	110	293	11	1	34%	9%	60	-0.7
✕Heriberto Hernández 2019 · A	19	43→49	54→60	46→50	55	223/325/414	191	274	20	7	26%	12%	111	+2.5	223/302/390	167	328	17	6	35%	9%	95	+1.4	221/302/428	208	278	28	9	31%	9%	103	+1.2