Elian Peña

SS St. Lucie Mets
Age 19 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#437ETA2029MLB%4%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202517ROKDSL Mets Oran…223.292/.421/.52892167—.174/.290/.305
202618A+/ANYM516.255/.371/.37083067—.208/.297/.294
2027PROJMLE19MLBNYM8.183/.272/.2720060-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB20MLBNYM176.191/.280/.2953669-0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB21MLBNYM264.198/.288/.31969780.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$5M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed93
Z-Con%66
BB%51
Whiff%45
K%18
Chase%10
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 24, comp-based) · star 9% · didn't stick 73%
CompsJesús Báez (age 19) · Angel Ortiz (age 19) · Hoy Park (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .272 / .272
PA8
HR0
K%25
BB%12
BABIP237
ISO91
MLB%4%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -1.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.81.70.10.40.81.01.11.11.00.927282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.8$2M+$2M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$5M+$5M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.1$6M+$5M
2034Arb-1$5M+1.1$5M+$3M
2035Arb-2$8M+1.0$4M+$1M
2036Arb-3$10M+0.9$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $15M $25M +$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202517 ROKDSL Mets Orange — 223178 521319 36365 214 292421528949 236319 1616 413 67 — — — — — —
202618 A+Brooklyn Cyclones — 7767 11210 9240 20 164263224487 60250 3112 230 1 — — — — — —
202618 ASt. Lucie Mets — 439365 991828 619410 289 271390397787 126343 2114 358 78 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Mets Orange — 223190 33815 26455 214 174290305595 132195 2012 267 67 — — — — — —
202618 A+ MLEBrooklyn Cyclones — 7770 9110 6310 20 129197171369 43218 408 169 1 — — — — — —
202618 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 439384 851426 4212810 289 221314315629 94306 2910 284 78 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Mets Orange — 223190 33815 26455 214 174290305595 132197 2012 267 67 — — — — — —
202517 ROK RAWDSL Mets Orange — 223178 521319 36365 214 292421528949 236319 1616 413 67 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 516455 941636 4715910 309 207295295589 88300 319 267 67 — — — — — —
202618 A RAW2 teams — 516432 1102038 7011810 309 255371370741 116330 2314 339 67 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Mets Orange — 223190 33815 26455 214 174290305595 132195 2012 267 67 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 516454 941636 4715910 309 207295295590 88293 319 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Mets Orange — 223190 33815 26455 214 174290305595 132195 2012 267 67 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 516454 941636 4715910 309 207295295590 88293 319 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202719 MLB MLENYM 4% 626553 1051939 5816110 195 188277280556 92245 269 257 60 -29 +2 -4 +7 +14 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202719 MLB CTXNYM 4% 87 1000 120 00 183272272543 89237 2512 252 60 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202820 MLB MLENYM 36% 488431 841529 461238 165 196285304589 107249 259 270 69 -18 +1 -3 +5 +11 -0.4
202921 MLB MLENYM 49% 537472 9617212 511329 195 204293328621 124253 259 283 78 -14 +2 -3 +6 +12 0.2
203022 MLB MLENYM 55% 560493 10318215 531359 206 211300348648 138256 249 293 85 -10 +2 -2 +6 +12 0.8
203123 MLB MLENYM 57% 578509 11019317 551389 216 216304363667 147259 2410 301 90 -7 +2 -1 +6 +13 1.3
203224 MLB MLENYM 57% 590520 11520318 561399 216 220307373680 153261 249 306 93 -5 +2 +1 +6 +13 1.7
203325 MLB MLENYM 57% 599527 11720319 5714110 216 221309377686 157262 2410 308 94 -4 +2 +1 +6 +13 1.8
203426 MLB MLENYM 57% 604531 11820320 5814210 216 221309379688 158261 2410 309 95 -4 +2 +1 +6 +13 1.9
203527 MLB MLENYM 55% 599527 11620319 581429 206 220308377685 157261 2410 307 94 -4 +2 +1 +6 +13 1.8
203628 MLB MLENYM 55% 589518 11319219 571419 185 218306372678 154260 2410 305 92 -5 +2 +0 +6 +13 1.6
203729 MLB MLENYM 53% 568500 10718217 541379 145 216304366670 150259 2410 301 90 -7 +1 -1 +6 +12 1.2
203830 MLB MLENYM 53% 553487 10418216 531368 114 213300359659 145257 2510 297 87 -9 +1 -1 +6 +12 0.9
203931 MLB MLENYM 52% 534471 9917215 501338 63 209296349645 140255 259 291 83 -11 +0 -2 +6 +12 0.5
204032 MLB MLENYM 52% 512452 9315214 481307 22 204290337627 133251 259 284 78 -13 -0 -3 +5 +11 0.0
202820 MLB CTXNYM 36% 176155 30513 16443 62 191280295576 105242 259 265 69 -6 +0 -1 +2 +4 -0.1
202921 MLB CTXNYM 49% 264233 46816 25654 93 198288319607 121245 259 277 78 -7 +1 -1 +3 +6 0.1
203022 MLB CTXNYM 55% 305268 54918 29745 113 205295340634 135248 2410 288 85 -6 +1 -1 +3 +7 0.4
203123 MLB CTXNYM 57% 328289 6110110 31785 123 210299354653 144250 249 295 90 -4 +1 -0 +4 +7 0.8
203224 MLB CTXNYM 57% 334294 6210110 32795 123 214302364666 151253 2410 300 93 -3 +1 +0 +4 +7 1.0
203325 MLB CTXNYM 57% 339298 6411111 33805 123 215303369672 154253 2410 302 94 -2 +1 +0 +4 +7 1.1
203426 MLB CTXNYM 57% 341300 6411111 33805 123 215304370674 155253 2310 303 95 -2 +1 +0 +4 +7 1.1
203527 MLB CTXNYM 55% 332292 6210111 32795 113 214303368671 154253 2410 302 94 -2 +1 +0 +4 +7 1.0
203628 MLB CTXNYM 55% 323284 6010110 31775 103 212301364664 151252 2410 299 92 -3 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.9
203729 MLB CTXNYM 53% 304267 56919 29745 82 210298358656 147251 2410 296 90 -4 +1 -0 +3 +7 0.7
203830 MLB CTXNYM 53% 291257 54919 28714 62 207295350645 143249 2410 291 87 -4 +0 -1 +3 +6 0.5
203931 MLB CTXNYM 52% 278246 50818 26694 32 203290341631 137246 259 286 83 -6 -0 -1 +3 +6 0.2
204032 MLB CTXNYM 52% 266235 46717 25674 11 199285329614 130243 259 279 78 -7 -0 -1 +3 +6 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 38813418 70911713113 37093759 11333 207296348644 141249 2410 293 85 -56 +9 -6 +42 +84 7.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650572 11920219 6215710 196 208297350646 142250 2410 293 85 -9 +2 -1 +7 +14 1.3
Career— MLE — 82607269 153726636224 7882027132 26780 211300350650 139259 2510 293 85 -121 +16 -13 +81 +163 12.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650572 12221318 6216010 216 213301355656 142262 2510 293 85 -10 +1 -1 +7 +14 1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 439 PAwOBA .349 → .284 (−65)K% 21.4% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.41%÷1.000×1.360——29.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.21%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0459.53%
HBP% /PA2.28%—×0.780—×1.0451.86%
Singles /BIP26.20%÷1.000×0.920×0.950×1.04523.93%
Doubles /BIP6.64%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0455.47%
Triples /BIP0.74%÷1.000×0.910×0.950×1.0450.67%
Home runs /BIP2.95%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0452.47%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .284; ISO .126 → .102; BABIP .343 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 77 PAwOBA .228 → .169 (−58)K% 31.2% → 40.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.17%÷1.000×1.310——40.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.69%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0507.36%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP18.60%÷1.000×0.870×0.979×1.05016.63%
Doubles /BIP4.65%÷1.000×0.780×0.979×1.0503.73%
Triples /BIP2.33%÷1.000×0.850×0.979×1.0502.03%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .228 → .169; ISO .060 → .046; BABIP .250 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Mets Orange · 223 PAwOBA .406 → .267 (−139)K% 16.1% → 20.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.14%÷0.974×1.220——20.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.14%÷0.971×0.700—×1.00811.73%
HBP% /PA2.24%—×0.700—×1.0081.58%
Singles /BIP20.42%÷1.012×0.680×0.950×1.00813.13%
Doubles /BIP9.15%÷0.944×0.600×0.950×1.0085.57%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.057×0.600×0.950×1.0080.38%
Home runs /BIP6.34%÷0.873×0.470—×1.0083.44%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 102, 2B 89, 3B 111, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .406 → .267; ISO .236 → .139; BABIP .319 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).