Carlos Rodriguez
C Fort Wayne TinCaps| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A/ROKSD | 182 | .206/.305/.290 | 0 | 1 | 7 | — | .130/.204/.173 |
| 2025 | 22 | A/ROKSD | 223 | .289/.418/.444 | 4 | 3 | 89 | — | .230/.332/.346 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+SD | 333 | .218/.310/.345 | 7 | 1 | 42 | — | .174/.244/.263 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBSD | 1 | .201/.278/.304 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBSD | 62 | .204/.281/.314 | 1 | 1 | 71 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBSD | 115 | .206/.283/.320 | 2 | 1 | 73 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 169 | 125 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 401 | 368 | 769 | 168 | 259 | 25 | 22 | 356 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 59 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 288 | 288 | 577 | 96 | 237 | 22 | 12 | 269 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 99 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 289 | 392 | 361 | 753 | 72 | 371 | 22 | 14 | 341 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 29 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 321 | 217 | 539 | 43 | 222 | 21 | 17 | 258 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 153 | 132 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 302 | 303 | 605 | 91 | 315 | 30 | 10 | 272 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 189 | 152 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 276 | 409 | 454 | 863 | 178 | 333 | 19 | 16 | 382 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 34 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 357 | 471 | 393 | 863 | 36 | 435 | 15 | 18 | 400 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 333 | 293 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 310 | 345 | 655 | 126 | 273 | 23 | 12 | 298 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 169 | 137 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 117 | 275 | 204 | 480 | 88 | 159 | 31 | 15 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 59 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 186 | 200 | 386 | 73 | 194 | 32 | 7 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 99 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 278 | 273 | 551 | 68 | 282 | 32 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 286 | 208 | 494 | 42 | 193 | 28 | 14 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 153 | 138 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 123 | 188 | 167 | 355 | 43 | 230 | 44 | 6 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 189 | 161 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 328 | 354 | 682 | 130 | 292 | 27 | 12 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 34 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 300 | 653 | 33 | 339 | 21 | 12 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 333 | 304 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 98 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 244 | 263 | 507 | 89 | 238 | 29 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 169 | 137 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 117 | 275 | 204 | 480 | 88 | 167 | 31 | 15 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 169 | 125 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 401 | 368 | 769 | 168 | 259 | 25 | 22 | 356 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 59 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 186 | 200 | 386 | 73 | 171 | 32 | 7 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Padres | — | 59 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 288 | 288 | 577 | 96 | 237 | 22 | 12 | 269 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 99 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 278 | 273 | 551 | 68 | 298 | 32 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Padres | — | 99 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 289 | 392 | 361 | 753 | 72 | 371 | 22 | 14 | 341 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 162 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 203 | 173 | 376 | 43 | 231 | 41 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 182 | 155 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 305 | 290 | 595 | 84 | 299 | 29 | 11 | 270 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 223 | 192 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 327 | 344 | 671 | 115 | 308 | 26 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 223 | 180 | 52 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 289 | 418 | 444 | 863 | 156 | 350 | 18 | 17 | 385 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 333 | 304 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 98 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 244 | 263 | 507 | 89 | 239 | 29 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 333 | 293 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 310 | 345 | 655 | 126 | 273 | 23 | 12 | 298 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 169 | 137 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 117 | 275 | 204 | 480 | 88 | 159 | 31 | 15 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 59 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 186 | 200 | 386 | 73 | 194 | 32 | 7 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 99 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 278 | 267 | 545 | 67 | 282 | 32 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 165 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 203 | 170 | 373 | 42 | 224 | 41 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 223 | 193 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 327 | 342 | 669 | 114 | 299 | 26 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 333 | 302 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 98 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 244 | 265 | 509 | 89 | 238 | 29 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 165 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 203 | 170 | 373 | 42 | 224 | 41 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 223 | 193 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 327 | 342 | 669 | 114 | 299 | 26 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 333 | 302 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 98 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 244 | 265 | 509 | 89 | 238 | 29 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | SD | 0% | 380 | 341 | 70 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 104 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 280 | 309 | 589 | 104 | 272 | 27 | 9 | 268 | 68 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | SD | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 278 | 304 | 582 | 103 | 267 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 68 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | SD | 30% | 205 | 183 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 284 | 318 | 602 | 111 | 273 | 27 | 9 | 273 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 44% | 259 | 232 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 69 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 286 | 324 | 610 | 115 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 49% | 290 | 261 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 77 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 287 | 326 | 612 | 115 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 277 | 74 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 52% | 307 | 274 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 82 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 286 | 325 | 611 | 115 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 277 | 74 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 51% | 309 | 276 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 82 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 113 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 275 | 73 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | SD | 56% | 306 | 275 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 83 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 281 | 315 | 597 | 109 | 272 | 27 | 9 | 271 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | SD | 30% | 62 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 281 | 314 | 595 | 110 | 268 | 27 | 10 | 270 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 44% | 115 | 103 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 283 | 320 | 603 | 113 | 269 | 27 | 9 | 273 | 73 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 49% | 142 | 127 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 284 | 321 | 605 | 114 | 269 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 74 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 52% | 158 | 142 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 283 | 321 | 604 | 114 | 269 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 51% | 159 | 143 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 206 | 282 | 319 | 601 | 112 | 268 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 73 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | SD | 56% | 171 | 153 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 279 | 311 | 589 | 107 | 266 | 27 | 9 | 268 | 69 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 807 | 724 | 149 | 26 | 5 | 15 | 72 | 216 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 206 | 282 | 318 | 600 | 112 | 269 | 27 | 9 | 272 | 62 | -27 | +0 | -2 | +14 | +17 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 120 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 58 | 174 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 206 | 282 | 317 | 599 | 111 | 269 | 27 | 9 | 272 | 62 | -21 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2919 | 2598 | 507 | 90 | 20 | 46 | 272 | 831 | 19 | 29 | 9 | 195 | 276 | 298 | 575 | 103 | 265 | 28 | 9 | 259 | 62 | -62 | +1 | -4 | +33 | +40 | 0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 112 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 61 | 185 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 193 | 275 | 294 | 568 | 100 | 263 | 28 | 9 | 259 | 62 | -22 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 333 PAwOBA .291 → .230 (−60)K% 23.1% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 18.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 3.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .291 → .230; ISO .126 → .097; BABIP .273 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 189 PAwOBA .375 → .303 (−71)K% 19.0% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.956 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.87% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.55% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | — | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.48% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | — | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | — | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.936 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .375 → .303; ISO .178 → .142; BABIP .333 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Padres · 34 PAwOBA .391 → .286 (−105)K% 14.7% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷1.023 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.990 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 10.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 39.13% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 30.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.045 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .391 → .286; ISO .036 → .024; BABIP .435 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Padres · 153 PAwOBA .271 → .172 (−99)K% 30.1% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.07% | ÷0.990 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.002 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.955 | ×0.985 | 17.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.042 | ×0.720 | ×0.955 | ×0.985 | 3.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | ×0.955 | ×0.985 | 3.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.892 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 94, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .271 → .172; ISO .091 → .054; BABIP .315 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 29 PAwOBA .262 → .209 (−53)K% 20.7% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷1.002 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.24% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 12.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 15.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 122, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .209; ISO .043 → .034; BABIP .222 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Padres · 99 PAwOBA .340 → .239 (−101)K% 22.2% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.14% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.43% | ÷1.006 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 26.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.931 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.912 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.40% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .340 → .239; ISO .072 → .054; BABIP .371 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Padres · 59 PAwOBA .262 → .182 (−80)K% 22.0% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.86% | ÷1.015 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 15.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.081 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.86% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .182; ISO .096 → .063; BABIP .237 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Padres · 169 PAwOBA .353 → .224 (−128)K% 24.9% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.85% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.89% | ÷1.046 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 14.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.66% | ÷0.991 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 10.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.199 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.90% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .353 → .224; ISO .168 → .084; BABIP .259 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).