Anthony Vilar
C El Paso Chihuahuas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 482 | .252/.379/.365 | 7 | 12 | 78 | — | .189/.285/.280 |
| 2025 | 26 | AASD | 382 | .209/.317/.317 | 6 | 12 | 49 | — | .187/.265/.278 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AASD | 259 | .238/.353/.355 | 4 | 3 | 60 | — | .203/.286/.292 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBSD | 16 | .187/.269/.275 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBSD | 48 | .187/.269/.275 | 1 | 1 | 58 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 29 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 357 | 391 | 748 | 174 | 250 | 14 | 17 | 327 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 203 | 168 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 345 | 321 | 666 | 95 | 303 | 25 | 15 | 306 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 109 | 95 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 324 | 358 | 682 | 126 | 317 | 30 | 10 | 309 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 179 | 133 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 211 | 407 | 376 | 783 | 165 | 312 | 30 | 24 | 360 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 100 | 80 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 303 | 212 | 516 | 75 | 213 | 32 | 18 | 256 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 300 | 249 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 76 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 257 | 379 | 390 | 769 | 133 | 345 | 25 | 15 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 82 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 368 | 469 | 456 | 925 | 88 | 431 | 13 | 16 | 414 | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 382 | 325 | 68 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 101 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 209 | 317 | 317 | 634 | 108 | 281 | 26 | 13 | 291 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 210 | 177 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 249 | 348 | 367 | 715 | 119 | 357 | 29 | 12 | 318 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 49 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 375 | 297 | 672 | 108 | 261 | 27 | 22 | 318 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 29 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 250 | 280 | 530 | 120 | 186 | 21 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 203 | 178 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 290 | 287 | 577 | 84 | 283 | 32 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 109 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 269 | 306 | 575 | 112 | 283 | 38 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 179 | 148 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 76 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 155 | 294 | 270 | 564 | 115 | 264 | 42 | 16 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 100 | 85 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 242 | 188 | 431 | 71 | 190 | 40 | 13 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 300 | 264 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 98 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 212 | 299 | 311 | 609 | 98 | 315 | 33 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 382 | 342 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 117 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 187 | 265 | 278 | 542 | 91 | 256 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 210 | 185 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 73 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 284 | 297 | 582 | 86 | 319 | 35 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 49 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 292 | 268 | 560 | 98 | 229 | 33 | 14 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 29 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 250 | 280 | 530 | 120 | 200 | 21 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK RAW | ACL Padres | — | 29 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 357 | 391 | 748 | 174 | 250 | 14 | 17 | 327 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 203 | 178 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 290 | 287 | 577 | 84 | 296 | 32 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 203 | 168 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 345 | 321 | 666 | 95 | 303 | 25 | 15 | 306 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 246 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 117 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 163 | 277 | 260 | 537 | 98 | 278 | 41 | 12 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 288 | 228 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 54 | 86 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 219 | 375 | 368 | 744 | 149 | 314 | 30 | 19 | 341 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 482 | 422 | 80 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 166 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 190 | 285 | 282 | 567 | 92 | 291 | 34 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 482 | 397 | 100 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 75 | 119 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 252 | 379 | 365 | 744 | 113 | 341 | 25 | 16 | 341 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 382 | 342 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 117 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 187 | 265 | 278 | 542 | 91 | 265 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 382 | 325 | 68 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 101 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 209 | 317 | 317 | 634 | 108 | 281 | 26 | 13 | 291 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 226 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 204 | 286 | 292 | 578 | 88 | 316 | 34 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 259 | 214 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 74 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 238 | 353 | 355 | 708 | 117 | 341 | 29 | 14 | 318 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 29 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 250 | 269 | 519 | 115 | 186 | 21 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 203 | 179 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 290 | 285 | 575 | 84 | 283 | 32 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 247 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 117 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 162 | 277 | 259 | 536 | 97 | 271 | 41 | 12 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 482 | 423 | 80 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 166 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 189 | 285 | 281 | 566 | 92 | 284 | 34 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 382 | 343 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 117 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 187 | 265 | 277 | 542 | 90 | 256 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 231 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 199 | 286 | 286 | 571 | 87 | 302 | 34 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 482 | 423 | 80 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 166 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 189 | 285 | 281 | 566 | 92 | 284 | 34 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 382 | 343 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 117 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 187 | 265 | 277 | 542 | 90 | 256 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 231 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 199 | 286 | 286 | 571 | 87 | 302 | 34 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 10% | 309 | 275 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 99 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 272 | 279 | 551 | 89 | 278 | 32 | 9 | 254 | 58 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 269 | 275 | 544 | 88 | 272 | 31 | 6 | 251 | 58 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 27% | 177 | 158 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 57 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 271 | 280 | 551 | 89 | 277 | 32 | 9 | 254 | 58 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 27% | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 269 | 275 | 543 | 87 | 271 | 31 | 8 | 251 | 58 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 318 | 589 | 114 | 286 | 31 | 8 | 251 | 57 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 203 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 320 | 591 | 116 | 285 | 31 | 8 | 251 | 57 | -33 | +3 | -5 | +12 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1975 | 1736 | 327 | 61 | 10 | 26 | 198 | 666 | 16 | 35 | 12 | 188 | 277 | 280 | 557 | 92 | 284 | 34 | 10 | 252 | 57 | -17 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 108 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 65 | 219 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 189 | 277 | 282 | 559 | 93 | 284 | 34 | 10 | 252 | 57 | -32 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 210 PAwOBA .313 → .260 (−53)K% 29.0% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 8.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .313 → .260; ISO .119 → .094; BABIP .357 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 49 PAwOBA .303 → .248 (−55)K% 26.5% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 13.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 3.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .248; ISO .108 → .094; BABIP .261 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 382 PAwOBA .287 → .241 (−45)K% 26.4% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.44% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.83% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.988 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.91% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×0.988 | ×0.988 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×0.988 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.23% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .287 → .241; ISO .108 → .093; BABIP .281 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 300 PAwOBA .341 → .278 (−64)K% 25.3% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.33% | ÷0.982 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.33% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 9.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.59% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×0.978 | 24.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.20% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×1.040 | ×0.978 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.73% | ÷1.082 | ×0.850 | ×1.040 | ×0.978 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.47% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 116, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .341 → .278; ISO .133 → .109; BABIP .345 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 100 PAwOBA .250 → .197 (−53)K% 32.0% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.00% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 12.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.58% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 13.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .250 → .197; ISO .075 → .063; BABIP .213 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 179 PAwOBA .355 → .251 (−103)K% 29.6% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.61% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 24.02% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 15.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×0.980 | 17.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×0.980 | 7.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×0.980 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 3.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .355 → .251; ISO .165 → .114; BABIP .312 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 109 PAwOBA .304 → .247 (−58)K% 30.3% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.28% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.09% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.81% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 24.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.118 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.84% | ÷0.848 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.51% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .304 → .247; ISO .126 → .104; BABIP .317 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 203 PAwOBA .304 → .256 (−48)K% 24.6% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.63% | ÷0.992 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.78% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.03% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 21.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.935 | ×0.810 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .304 → .256; ISO .095 → .083; BABIP .303 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .