Evan Marzilli
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 479 | .256/.369/.381 | 7 | 16 | 72 | — | .219/.302/.309 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 187 | .236/.342/.348 | 2 | 4 | 36 | — | .164/.241/.229 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 70 | .123/.286/.193 | 1 | 0 | 2 | — | .101/.214/.166 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | — | 236 | 211 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 35 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 332 | 403 | 389 | 791 | 57 | 398 | 15 | 9 | 362 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 536 | 460 | 115 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 59 | 143 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 250 | 343 | 346 | 689 | 96 | 354 | 27 | 11 | 310 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 326 | 285 | 69 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 67 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 242 | 329 | 358 | 687 | 116 | 304 | 21 | 10 | 309 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 212 | 176 | 43 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 54 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 244 | 364 | 409 | 773 | 165 | 319 | 25 | 15 | 345 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 86 | 76 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 303 | 376 | 382 | 758 | 79 | 386 | 21 | 7 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 30 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 300 | 300 | 400 | 700 | 100 | 391 | 23 | 0 | 308 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 144 | 122 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 246 | 357 | 344 | 701 | 98 | 309 | 19 | 14 | 322 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 29 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 409 | 552 | 500 | 1.052 | 91 | 643 | 28 | 24 | 474 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 78 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 312 | 343 | 655 | 134 | 298 | 26 | 12 | 295 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 408 | 342 | 79 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 56 | 97 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 231 | 352 | 301 | 653 | 70 | 318 | 24 | 14 | 307 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 124 | 106 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 361 | 406 | 766 | 142 | 329 | 22 | 12 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 355 | 296 | 75 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 70 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 253 | 372 | 372 | 744 | 118 | 314 | 20 | 15 | 339 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 148 | 131 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 345 | 382 | 726 | 122 | 376 | 30 | 11 | 329 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 39 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 133 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 67 | 182 | 21 | 21 | 274 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 24 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 417 | 316 | 732 | 53 | 385 | 25 | 21 | 350 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 46 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 53 | 217 | 132 | 349 | 79 | 77 | 52 | 17 | 186 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 236 | 219 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 256 | 309 | 297 | 606 | 41 | 331 | 22 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 536 | 483 | 97 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 195 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 201 | 265 | 269 | 534 | 68 | 318 | 36 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 326 | 296 | 63 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 82 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 213 | 276 | 314 | 591 | 101 | 278 | 25 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 212 | 187 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 70 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 193 | 278 | 310 | 588 | 118 | 276 | 33 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 30 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 267 | 267 | 367 | 633 | 100 | 364 | 30 | 0 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 144 | 129 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 217 | 294 | 310 | 604 | 93 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 29 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 280 | 379 | 360 | 739 | 80 | 497 | 41 | 14 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 78 | 69 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 159 | 247 | 246 | 493 | 87 | 256 | 33 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 408 | 360 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 121 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 183 | 276 | 242 | 518 | 58 | 265 | 30 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 124 | 110 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 287 | 291 | 578 | 82 | 289 | 31 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 355 | 314 | 70 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 87 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 223 | 307 | 315 | 622 | 92 | 288 | 25 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 148 | 137 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 175 | 236 | 241 | 477 | 66 | 299 | 39 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 39 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 121 | 256 | 182 | 438 | 61 | 162 | 26 | 13 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 24 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 50 | 326 | 33 | 17 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 46 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 49 | 152 | 122 | 274 | 73 | 68 | 61 | 11 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 236 | 219 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 256 | 309 | 297 | 606 | 41 | 333 | 22 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | Missoula Osprey | — | 236 | 211 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 35 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 332 | 403 | 389 | 791 | 57 | 398 | 15 | 9 | 362 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 536 | 483 | 97 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 195 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 201 | 265 | 269 | 534 | 68 | 330 | 36 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 536 | 460 | 115 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 59 | 143 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 250 | 343 | 346 | 689 | 96 | 354 | 27 | 11 | 310 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 624 | 559 | 116 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 46 | 176 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 208 | 281 | 315 | 596 | 107 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 624 | 537 | 135 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 68 | 139 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 251 | 347 | 378 | 725 | 127 | 321 | 22 | 11 | 326 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 203 | 184 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 228 | 297 | 310 | 607 | 82 | 320 | 28 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 203 | 174 | 48 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 43 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 276 | 376 | 374 | 750 | 98 | 359 | 21 | 13 | 341 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 429 | 77 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 45 | 147 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 179 | 271 | 242 | 514 | 63 | 270 | 30 | 9 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 486 | 409 | 93 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 117 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 227 | 346 | 308 | 654 | 81 | 315 | 24 | 13 | 305 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 425 | 93 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 125 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 219 | 300 | 315 | 615 | 96 | 292 | 26 | 10 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 479 | 402 | 103 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 69 | 97 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 256 | 369 | 381 | 750 | 124 | 318 | 20 | 14 | 339 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 169 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 67 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 166 | 246 | 231 | 477 | 65 | 267 | 36 | 9 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 187 | 161 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 52 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 236 | 342 | 348 | 690 | 112 | 336 | 28 | 13 | 317 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 70 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 98 | 214 | 164 | 378 | 66 | 208 | 51 | 13 | 172 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 70 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 123 | 286 | 193 | 479 | 70 | 231 | 43 | 19 | 242 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 236 | 217 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 258 | 309 | 300 | 609 | 41 | 331 | 22 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 536 | 489 | 97 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 195 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 198 | 265 | 266 | 531 | 67 | 318 | 36 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 624 | 562 | 116 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 46 | 176 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 206 | 281 | 313 | 594 | 107 | 277 | 28 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 203 | 183 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 230 | 297 | 311 | 609 | 82 | 326 | 28 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 429 | 77 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 45 | 147 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 179 | 271 | 242 | 514 | 63 | 264 | 30 | 9 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 427 | 93 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 125 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 218 | 300 | 314 | 613 | 96 | 288 | 26 | 10 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 167 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 67 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 168 | 246 | 234 | 480 | 66 | 270 | 36 | 9 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 70 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 98 | 214 | 164 | 378 | 66 | 156 | 51 | 13 | 172 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2821 | 2529 | 515 | 89 | 27 | 19 | 229 | 853 | 35 | 85 | 43 | 204 | 279 | 283 | 562 | 79 | 297 | 30 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -148 | -0 | +0 | +10 | +61 | -7.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 119 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 197 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 204 | 280 | 281 | 561 | 77 | 299 | 30 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -34 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAJackson Generals · 46 PAwOBA .183 → .124 (−58)K% 52.2% → 61.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 52.17% | ÷1.028 | ×1.220 | — | — | 61.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 11.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 6.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.966 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 5.73% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .183 → .124; ISO .079 → .055; BABIP .077 → .068. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAReno Aces · 24 PAwOBA .342 → .263 (−80)K% 25.0% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.83% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 14.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.035 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.992 | 26.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.025 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .342 → .263; ISO .053 → .039; BABIP .385 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAReno Aces · 148 PAwOBA .321 → .225 (−96)K% 29.7% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.991 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷1.069 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 7.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷1.024 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 23.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.117 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.044 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 105, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .321 → .225; ISO .122 → .079; BABIP .376 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAJackson Generals · 39 PAwOBA .269 → .210 (−59)K% 20.5% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.51% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 13.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 8.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 7.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.954 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 129, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .269 → .210; ISO .067 → .060; BABIP .182 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAJackson Generals · 355 PAwOBA .331 → .279 (−52)K% 19.7% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.72% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.65% | ÷0.987 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 9.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.34% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 22.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.42% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.21% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .331 → .279; ISO .118 → .099; BABIP .314 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAReno Aces · 124 PAwOBA .337 → .265 (−72)K% 21.8% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.77% | ÷0.919 | ×1.290 | — | — | 30.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.10% | ÷1.007 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 8.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.05% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 22.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.089 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 1.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.044 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 84, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .337 → .265; ISO .142 → .100; BABIP .329 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAMobile BayBears · 408 PAwOBA .300 → .235 (−66)K% 23.8% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.77% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.48% | ÷0.975 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.90% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.146 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.160 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.28% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 113, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .300 → .235; ISO .070 → .057; BABIP .318 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAReno Aces · 78 PAwOBA .288 → .227 (−61)K% 25.6% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.64% | ÷0.991 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷0.979 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 8.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.89% | ÷1.052 | ×0.900 | ×1.038 | ×1.033 | 13.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷1.060 | ×0.810 | ×1.038 | ×1.033 | 8.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.038 | ×1.033 | 3.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .288 → .227; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .298 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).