Abrahan Gutierrez
C Somerset Patriots| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAPIT | 180 | .251/.285/.322 | 0 | 2 | 50 | — | .231/.257/.295 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/APIT | 114 | .235/.316/.275 | 1 | 0 | 40 | — | .210/.272/.248 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 117 | .275/.319/.404 | 3 | 0 | 62 | — | .240/.267/.331 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBNYY | 2 | .218/.264/.314 | 0 | 0 | 61 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBNYY | 43 | .218/.265/.315 | 1 | 0 | 61 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 37
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 141 | 129 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 321 | 357 | 678 | 93 | 306 | 15 | 7 | 305 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies West | — | 178 | 162 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 315 | 364 | 407 | 771 | 93 | 340 | 9 | 6 | 343 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 322 | 289 | 71 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 317 | 318 | 635 | 73 | 296 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 306 | 245 | 71 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 53 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 430 | 441 | 870 | 151 | 335 | 14 | 17 | 394 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 441 | 377 | 97 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 112 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 359 | 411 | 770 | 154 | 331 | 25 | 12 | 346 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 135 | 115 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 336 | 348 | 684 | 122 | 237 | 12 | 12 | 313 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 89 | 77 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 360 | 403 | 762 | 143 | 295 | 16 | 11 | 346 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 180 | 171 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 251 | 285 | 322 | 607 | 70 | 301 | 16 | 4 | 272 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 99 | 88 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 333 | 295 | 629 | 45 | 318 | 21 | 8 | 295 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 143 | 343 | 200 | 27 | 7 | 167 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 56 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 309 | 440 | 749 | 200 | 231 | 14 | 9 | 326 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 61 | 59 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 305 | 328 | 373 | 701 | 68 | 367 | 16 | 3 | 315 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 141 | 133 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 243 | 271 | 514 | 68 | 250 | 21 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies West | — | 178 | 167 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 301 | 341 | 642 | 78 | 287 | 13 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 322 | 297 | 60 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 64 | 260 | 26 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 306 | 266 | 69 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 354 | 372 | 726 | 113 | 316 | 20 | 10 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 441 | 400 | 81 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 147 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 270 | 305 | 575 | 102 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 135 | 120 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 192 | 276 | 275 | 551 | 83 | 209 | 14 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 89 | 81 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 281 | 296 | 577 | 86 | 245 | 20 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 180 | 173 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 257 | 295 | 552 | 64 | 291 | 21 | 3 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 99 | 91 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 220 | 283 | 264 | 547 | 44 | 298 | 26 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 143 | 343 | 178 | 33 | 7 | 122 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 56 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 255 | 346 | 601 | 135 | 209 | 18 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 61 | 60 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 279 | 317 | 595 | 50 | 333 | 20 | 2 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 141 | 133 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 243 | 271 | 514 | 68 | 252 | 21 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Braves | — | 141 | 129 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 321 | 357 | 678 | 93 | 306 | 15 | 7 | 305 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies West | — | 178 | 167 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 301 | 341 | 642 | 78 | 297 | 13 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies West | — | 178 | 162 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 315 | 364 | 407 | 771 | 93 | 340 | 9 | 6 | 343 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 322 | 297 | 60 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 64 | 264 | 26 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 322 | 289 | 71 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 317 | 318 | 635 | 73 | 296 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 306 | 266 | 69 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 354 | 372 | 726 | 113 | 325 | 20 | 10 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 306 | 245 | 71 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 53 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 430 | 441 | 870 | 151 | 335 | 14 | 17 | 394 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 441 | 400 | 81 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 147 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 270 | 305 | 575 | 102 | 293 | 33 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 441 | 377 | 97 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 112 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 359 | 411 | 770 | 154 | 331 | 25 | 12 | 346 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 201 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 278 | 294 | 572 | 95 | 225 | 17 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 224 | 192 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 345 | 370 | 715 | 130 | 259 | 13 | 12 | 326 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 180 | 173 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 257 | 295 | 552 | 64 | 292 | 21 | 3 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 180 | 171 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 251 | 285 | 322 | 607 | 70 | 301 | 16 | 4 | 272 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 105 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 210 | 272 | 248 | 520 | 38 | 292 | 28 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 114 | 102 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 316 | 275 | 590 | 39 | 303 | 22 | 8 | 279 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 117 | 111 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 267 | 324 | 592 | 90 | 276 | 19 | 4 | 261 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 117 | 109 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 319 | 404 | 723 | 128 | 307 | 15 | 6 | 320 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 141 | 133 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 243 | 271 | 514 | 68 | 250 | 21 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies West | — | 178 | 167 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 301 | 341 | 642 | 78 | 287 | 13 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 322 | 297 | 60 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 64 | 260 | 26 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 306 | 264 | 69 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 354 | 375 | 729 | 114 | 316 | 20 | 10 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 441 | 401 | 81 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 147 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 202 | 270 | 304 | 574 | 102 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 200 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 278 | 295 | 573 | 95 | 223 | 17 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 180 | 172 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 233 | 257 | 297 | 553 | 64 | 291 | 21 | 3 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 104 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 212 | 272 | 250 | 522 | 38 | 282 | 28 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 117 | 111 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 267 | 324 | 592 | 90 | 274 | 19 | 4 | 261 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 180 | 172 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 233 | 257 | 297 | 553 | 64 | 291 | 21 | 3 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 104 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 212 | 272 | 250 | 522 | 38 | 282 | 28 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 117 | 111 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 267 | 324 | 592 | 90 | 274 | 19 | 4 | 261 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 2% | 200 | 186 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 263 | 311 | 574 | 94 | 270 | 23 | 5 | 258 | 61 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 264 | 314 | 578 | 96 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 61 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 27% | 161 | 150 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 264 | 311 | 575 | 94 | 270 | 23 | 5 | 259 | 61 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 27% | 43 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 265 | 315 | 579 | 97 | 270 | 23 | 5 | 260 | 61 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 256 | 341 | 597 | 122 | 267 | 23 | 5 | 260 | 61 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 620 | 136 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 151 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 255 | 340 | 596 | 121 | 267 | 23 | 5 | 260 | 61 | -30 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2289 | 2101 | 464 | 86 | 5 | 28 | 139 | 535 | 33 | 15 | 9 | 221 | 280 | 307 | 586 | 86 | 281 | 23 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 131 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 152 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 219 | 277 | 303 | 580 | 84 | 279 | 23 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -30 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASomerset Patriots · 61 PAwOBA .306 → .262 (−44)K% 16.4% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.39% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 2.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 26.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 6.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .306 → .262; ISO .068 → .054; BABIP .367 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 56 PAwOBA .317 → .259 (−58)K% 14.3% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×1.003 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.003 | 1.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .317 → .259; ISO .200 → .146; BABIP .231 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 99 PAwOBA .288 → .244 (−44)K% 21.2% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.21% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.08% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.85% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 28.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 1.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .288 → .244; ISO .045 → .035; BABIP .318 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ABradenton Marauders · 15 PAwOBA .163 → .122 (−41)K% 26.7% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 17.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.084 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.932 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 117, 3B 90, K 100, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .163 → .122; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 180 PAwOBA .267 → .242 (−25)K% 16.1% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.11% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.89% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 2.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 22.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 6.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .267 → .242; ISO .070 → .063; BABIP .301 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 135 PAwOBA .308 → .251 (−57)K% 11.9% → 14.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.85% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.85% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 16.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.16% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .308 → .251; ISO .122 → .091; BABIP .237 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 89 PAwOBA .337 → .255 (−82)K% 15.7% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.73% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.24% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.25% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.63% | ÷1.016 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 18.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷1.154 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.202 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.30% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .337 → .255; ISO .143 → .102; BABIP .295 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 441 PAwOBA .340 → .255 (−85)K% 25.4% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.40% | ÷0.999 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.79% | ÷1.063 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.77% | ÷0.961 | ×0.870 | ×1.001 | ×0.998 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.30% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | ×1.001 | ×0.998 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.001 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.53% | ÷1.273 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.12% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .340 → .255; ISO .154 → .110; BABIP .331 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).