Aaron McKeithan
C Arkansas Travelers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AASTL | 191 | .264/.362/.325 | 1 | 0 | 67 | — | .232/.314/.286 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAPIT | 139 | .175/.304/.272 | 3 | 0 | 34 | — | .158/.252/.250 |
| 2026 | 26 | AASEA | 120 | .299/.433/.351 | 1 | 1 | 95 | — | .272/.375/.320 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBSEA | 2 | .217/.305/.304 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBSEA | 34 | .217/.304/.305 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ37% MLB | 29 | MLBSEA | 60 | .216/.302/.303 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 37
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 76 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 185 | 451 | 31 | 204 | 22 | 8 | 223 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 83 | 75 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 325 | 333 | 659 | 80 | 310 | 19 | 8 | 303 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 232 | 194 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 284 | 396 | 407 | 803 | 124 | 345 | 19 | 12 | 364 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 256 | 207 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 387 | 353 | 740 | 87 | 282 | 13 | 11 | 335 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 191 | 163 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 362 | 325 | 687 | 61 | 311 | 16 | 9 | 316 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 139 | 114 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 304 | 272 | 576 | 96 | 185 | 15 | 13 | 267 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 120 | 97 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 299 | 433 | 351 | 784 | 52 | 378 | 18 | 16 | 370 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 76 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 227 | 164 | 391 | 30 | 172 | 29 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 83 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 265 | 273 | 538 | 65 | 269 | 23 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 232 | 203 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 317 | 315 | 633 | 89 | 297 | 27 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 256 | 217 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 323 | 290 | 613 | 65 | 240 | 17 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 191 | 168 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 314 | 286 | 600 | 54 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 139 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 158 | 252 | 250 | 502 | 92 | 162 | 19 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 120 | 103 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 375 | 320 | 695 | 49 | 351 | 22 | 11 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 76 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 227 | 164 | 391 | 30 | 196 | 29 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 76 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 185 | 451 | 31 | 204 | 22 | 8 | 223 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 280 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 81 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 307 | 311 | 617 | 86 | 299 | 26 | 7 | 272 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 315 | 269 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 275 | 377 | 387 | 764 | 112 | 335 | 19 | 11 | 348 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 256 | 217 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 323 | 290 | 613 | 65 | 254 | 17 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 256 | 207 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 387 | 353 | 740 | 87 | 282 | 13 | 11 | 335 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 191 | 168 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 314 | 286 | 600 | 54 | 290 | 20 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 191 | 163 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 362 | 325 | 687 | 61 | 311 | 16 | 9 | 316 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 139 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 158 | 252 | 250 | 502 | 92 | 174 | 19 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 139 | 114 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 304 | 272 | 576 | 96 | 185 | 15 | 13 | 267 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 120 | 103 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 375 | 320 | 695 | 49 | 360 | 22 | 11 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 120 | 97 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 299 | 433 | 351 | 784 | 52 | 378 | 18 | 16 | 370 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 76 | 68 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 227 | 162 | 388 | 29 | 172 | 29 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 279 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 81 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 307 | 312 | 619 | 86 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 272 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 256 | 223 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 323 | 283 | 605 | 63 | 240 | 17 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 191 | 169 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 314 | 284 | 598 | 53 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 139 | 123 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 154 | 252 | 244 | 496 | 89 | 162 | 19 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 120 | 102 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 275 | 375 | 324 | 699 | 49 | 351 | 22 | 11 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 191 | 169 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 314 | 284 | 598 | 53 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 139 | 123 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 154 | 252 | 244 | 496 | 89 | 162 | 19 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 120 | 102 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 275 | 375 | 324 | 699 | 49 | 351 | 22 | 11 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | SEA | 2% | 200 | 176 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 307 | 308 | 615 | 89 | 282 | 24 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | SEA | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 305 | 304 | 609 | 87 | 280 | 0 | 0 | 281 | 78 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | SEA | 27% | 128 | 113 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 305 | 308 | 614 | 90 | 282 | 24 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 37% | 162 | 143 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 303 | 307 | 610 | 89 | 281 | 24 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | SEA | 27% | 34 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 304 | 305 | 608 | 88 | 280 | 24 | 9 | 280 | 77 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 37% | 60 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 302 | 303 | 605 | 88 | 279 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 76 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 94 | 84 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 298 | 286 | 584 | 71 | 279 | 23 | 9 | 279 | 67 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 125 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 55 | 152 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 215 | 298 | 287 | 586 | 72 | 280 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 67 | -18 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1471 | 1285 | 279 | 34 | 4 | 18 | 117 | 330 | 49 | 9 | 6 | 217 | 307 | 292 | 599 | 75 | 273 | 22 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 124 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 146 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 218 | 309 | 294 | 603 | 76 | 275 | 22 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -18 | +0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 120 PAwOBA .361 → .309 (−52)K% 18.3% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 2.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×0.978 | 32.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.040 | ×0.978 | 2.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.040 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .361 → .309; ISO .052 → .043; BABIP .378 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAltoona Curve · 139 PAwOBA .265 → .219 (−46)K% 15.1% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.11% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.95% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 14.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 1.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.891 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .265 → .219; ISO .096 → .086; BABIP .185 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 191 PAwOBA .314 → .267 (−47)K% 15.7% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.71% | ÷0.943 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.90% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.19% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 3.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.07% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 24.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.76% | ÷0.940 | ×0.840 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.386 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.43% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .314 → .267; ISO .061 → .048; BABIP .311 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 256 PAwOBA .338 → .275 (−63)K% 12.9% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.89% | ÷0.961 | ×1.270 | — | — | 17.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.065 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.08% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 3.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.01% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.988 | 23.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×0.988 | 1.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.973 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.87% | ÷1.093 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.08% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .338 → .275; ISO .087 → .067; BABIP .282 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 232 PAwOBA .358 → .284 (−74)K% 19.0% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.97% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.64% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 3.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×0.990 | 23.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×0.990 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×0.990 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.880 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .358 → .284; ISO .124 → .100; BABIP .345 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 83 PAwOBA .295 → .240 (−55)K% 19.3% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷1.064 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.43% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.42% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 22.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.989 | ×0.810 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 4.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.114 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 86, K 113, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .295 → .240; ISO .080 → .060; BABIP .310 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 APalm Beach Cardinals · 76 PAwOBA .221 → .169 (−52)K% 22.4% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.37% | ÷1.034 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.071 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 4.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.037 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | — | 14.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | — | 3.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 107, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .221 → .169; ISO .031 → .024; BABIP .204 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).