Aaron McKeithan — OGILVIE

Aaron McKeithanC Arkansas Travelers

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 225 lbs AA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .273 / .200

PA11

HR0

K%18

BB%9

BABIP296

ISO80

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED43

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	65	10	2	0	0	6	17	4	0	0	154	267	185	451	31	204	22	8	223	37	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2022	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	83	75	19	3	0	1	7	16	1	0	1	253	325	333	659	80	310	19	8	303	91	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	232	194	55	10	1	4	27	44	9	1	0	284	396	407	803	124	345	19	12	364	132	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	207	55	3	0	5	28	33	13	2	1	266	387	353	740	87	282	13	11	335	113	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.0
2024	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	163	43	5	1	1	17	30	8	0	0	264	362	325	687	61	311	16	9	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	139	114	20	2	0	3	18	21	3	0	1	175	304	272	576	96	185	15	13	267	67	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	67	9	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	0	134	227	164	391	30	172	29	5	169	1	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2022	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	83	77	16	2	0	1	5	20	1	0	1	208	265	273	538	65	268	24	6	236	46	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	232	201	47	8	1	4	20	65	9	1	0	234	330	343	674	109	308	28	9	295	86	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.1
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	216	49	3	0	4	19	46	13	2	1	227	327	296	623	69	241	18	7	276	73	-8	+0	—	—	+6	-0.3
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	168	41	5	1	1	12	39	8	0	0	244	324	304	628	60	287	20	6	270	69	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	139	120	19	2	0	3	12	27	3	0	1	158	252	250	502	92	160	19	9	218	34	-11	-0	—	—	+3	-0.9
2021	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	67	9	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	0	134	227	164	391	30	196	29	5	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	65	10	2	0	0	6	17	4	0	0	154	267	185	451	31	204	22	8	223	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	278	61	10	1	4	25	85	10	1	1	219	307	306	612	86	298	27	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	315	269	74	13	1	5	34	60	10	1	1	275	377	387	764	112	335	19	11	348	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	216	49	3	0	4	19	46	13	2	1	227	327	296	623	69	259	18	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	207	55	3	0	5	28	33	13	2	1	266	387	353	740	87	282	13	11	335	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	168	41	5	1	1	12	39	8	0	0	244	324	304	628	60	305	20	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	163	43	5	1	1	17	30	8	0	0	264	362	325	687	61	311	16	9	316	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	139	120	19	2	0	3	12	27	3	0	1	158	252	250	502	92	174	19	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	139	114	20	2	0	3	18	21	3	0	1	175	304	272	576	96	185	15	13	267	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	68	9	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	0	132	227	162	388	29	172	29	5	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	277	61	10	1	4	25	85	10	1	1	220	307	307	614	87	297	27	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	222	49	3	0	4	19	46	13	2	1	221	327	288	615	68	241	18	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	169	41	5	1	1	12	39	8	0	0	243	324	302	626	59	287	20	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	139	123	19	2	0	3	12	27	3	0	1	154	252	244	496	89	160	19	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	222	49	3	0	4	19	46	13	2	1	221	327	288	615	68	241	18	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	169	41	5	1	1	12	39	8	0	0	243	324	302	626	59	287	20	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	139	123	19	2	0	3	12	27	3	0	1	154	252	244	496	89	160	19	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	SEA	—	120	103	29	2	0	1	13	27	4	1	1	282	383	330	713	49	373	22	11	319	102	+0	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA RAW	SEA	—	120	97	29	2	0	1	19	22	4	1	1	299	433	351	784	52	378	18	16	370	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	AA MLE	SEA	2%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	200	273	200	473		298	18	9	293	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	26	AA MLE	SEA	—	131	113	31	2	0	1	14	29	4	1	1	274	374	319	693	44	361	22	11	317	101	+0	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	27%	209	184	45	6	1	3	18	45	5	2	1	245	329	337	665	92	297	22	9	296	86	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	40%	276	243	58	8	1	4	24	60	7	3	2	239	325	329	654	91	296	22	9	297	87	-4	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	45%	310	273	65	9	1	5	27	68	7	3	2	238	322	333	656	95	295	22	9	296	87	-5	-0	-1	+6	+7	0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	SEA	48%	333	293	69	9	1	5	29	74	8	4	2	235	321	324	645	89	294	22	9	294	85	-6	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	SEA	49%	320	282	65	9	1	4	28	72	7	3	2	230	315	312	628	82	292	22	9	290	82	-7	-0	-3	+6	+7	0.3
2032	32	MLB MLE	SEA	50%	300	264	61	8	1	4	26	69	7	3	2	231	316	314	631	83	289	23	9	285	79	-8	-0	-4	+5	+6	0.1
2033	33	MLB MLE	SEA	51%	268	237	51	6	0	3	23	63	6	3	2	215	301	278	579	63	285	24	9	278	74	-8	-0	-4	+5	+6	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	27%	56	50	11	1	0	1	5	12	1	1	0	220	304	300	604	80	295	21	9	274	86	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	40%	110	96	23	3	0	2	10	24	3	1	1	240	330	333	664	94	294	22	9	276	87	-2	-0	-0	+2	+2	0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	45%	139	123	28	4	0	2	12	31	3	2	1	228	312	309	621	81	293	22	9	276	87	-2	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	SEA	48%	158	139	31	4	0	2	14	35	4	2	1	223	312	295	607	72	292	22	9	275	85	-3	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	SEA	49%	157	138	31	4	0	2	14	36	4	2	1	225	314	297	611	72	289	23	9	271	82	-3	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	SEA	50%	150	133	30	4	0	2	13	35	3	2	1	226	309	301	609	75	287	23	9	266	79	-4	+0	-2	+3	+3	0.0
2033	33	MLB CTX	SEA	51%	136	120	26	3	0	2	12	32	3	1	1	217	304	292	595	75	283	24	9	260	74	-4	-0	-2	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	906	799	180	23	0	13	80	205	21	11	6	225	312	303	615	78	284	23	9	271	76	-19	-0	-7	+16	+20	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	129	17	0	9	57	147	15	8	4	225	311	302	613	77	285	23	9	271	76	-14	-0	-5	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3004	2635	595	77	8	40	248	672	85	24	16	226	313	307	619	81	285	22	8	280	76	-41	-1	-15	+36	+44	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	130	17	2	9	54	145	18	5	3	228	315	312	627	84	287	22	8	280	76	-13	-0	-5	+12	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Rubén Tejadalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,387 PA	3.6	2,387	10	16	251	325	318	+21	+22	6.5	6.7
/162	664	3	4	+5.7	+6.1	1.8	pk7: 7
#3Jack Hannahanlast yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,867 PA	2.8	1,867	29	6	232	315	348	+6	+29	6.2	6.2
/162	664	10	2	+2.0	+10.4	2.2	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Alfredo Amezagalast yr '11 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,550 PA	2.3	1,550	12	47	245	306	330	+7	+41	5.3	5.3
/162	664	5	20	+3.1	+17.4	2.3	pk7: 5
#6Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.4	909	12	10	232	314	314	+16	+12	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	7	+11.9	+8.8	1.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron McKeithan (OGILVIE)	26	53	34	43	50	235/321/308	73	298	2	1	22%	8%	85	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Martinez 2012 · MLB	27	54→59	38→40	48→40	47	253/312/336	83	327	5	6	23%	7%	86	+0.3	232/289/324	92	300	5	4	23%	6%	74	-0.5	223/280/312	89	285	4	0	22%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Clayton Daniel 2021 · AA	26	50	39→40	45→40	50	236/295/321	85	277	5	6	17%	7%	76	-0.4	220/272/307	87	285	7	7	24%	7%	64	-1.3	206/254/259	53	266	5	2	24%	6%	42	-0.9
✕Jamie Ritchie 2019 · AAA	26	50→53	39→40	48→45	49	237/315/324	87	310	6	6	24%	8%	84	+0.2	240/316/341	101	309	8	6	23%	9%	89	+0.5	243/326/328	86	308	6	1	21%	10%	87	+0.2
✕Austin Wynns 2017 · AAA	26	48→52	39→45	44→40	43	232/274/320	88	286	7	4	21%	5%	68	-1.0	234/288/333	99	287	10	3	21%	6%	76	-0.4	242/307/339	96	312	9	2	24%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Tyler Smith 2017 · AAA	26	50→54	39→40	47→50	45	238/289/323	85	296	6	9	21%	6%	74	-0.5	206/263/295	89	273	8	7	26%	6%	58	-1.7	178/244/257	79	241	7	4	28%	7%	40	-1.5
✕Tomás Telis 2017 · MLB	26	55→61	40→45	46→45	45	264/298/357	93	295	7	7	14%	4%	84	+0.2	255/291/354	99	285	8	6	13%	4%	82	-0.0	262/294/359	97	290	7	4	12%	3%	82	-0.0
✕Patrick Frick 2023 · AA	26	48→52	38→45	47→45	45	224/294/304	79	306	6	6	27%	8%	72	-0.7	224/283/306	82	301	6	8	26%	6%	68	-1.0	236/281/286	50	311	0	8	23%	3%	63	-0.3
✕Shane Justis 2009 · AA	26	52→53	40	47→50	49	247/308/340	93	288	7	11	17%	7%	85	+0.2	241/297/332	91	283	6	10	16%	5%	79	-0.2	247/301/336	89	287	4	8	15%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Kevin Nolan 2014 · AA	26	50→49	42→45	46→50	48	241/294/351	111	282	9	8	18%	7%	82	+0.0	228/269/318	90	263	6	9	16%	5%	65	-1.2	224/262/304	80	256	5	9	14%	4%	57	-1.4
✕Lou Marson 2012 · MLB	26	46→54	39→40	51→50	51	219/291/310	91	276	6	11	22%	9%	72	-0.7	222/314/309	87	285	5	11	22%	12%	81	-0.1	224/346/288	64	287	0	10	19%	15%	87	+0.2
✕Jason Jaramillo 2010 · MLB	27	50→55	41→40	45→40	47	242/296/337	95	289	8	3	19%	7%	80	-0.2	223/281/308	85	273	7	5	20%	7%	68	-1.0	210/269/271	61	262	4	3	20%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Bryson Brigman 2021 · AA	26	50→59	37→40	47→50	46	235/291/310	75	293	4	9	21%	6%	72	-0.7	234/288/324	90	298	6	11	22%	6%	74	-0.6	240/296/316	76	297	6	12	20%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Humberto Castro 2017 · AAA	26	49	38→30	47→45	45	230/291/313	83	285	5	7	21%	6%	73	-0.6	246/304/325	79	281	6	8	14%	5%	80	-0.1	252/307/306	54	287	2	6	12%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Iván De Jesús Jr. 2013 · MLB	26	51→61	39→40	47→50	43	244/289/328	84	311	6	6	23%	6%	75	-0.5	255/305/351	96	336	5	6	24%	6%	86	+0.3	263/320/354	91	340	5	4	23%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Francisco Urbaez 2023 · AAA	25	50→57	40→45	47→45	48	239/303/339	100	294	7	6	20%	7%	83	+0.1	240/302/343	103	292	8	8	20%	7%	84	+0.1	247/308/352	106	292	7	7	17%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Nate Orf 2016 · AA	26	52→54	37→45	44→50	50	241/318/327	86	298	2	6	19%	8%	86	+0.3	231/302/320	89	282	5	10	19%	7%	79	-0.2	225/310/332	107	277	9	14	20%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Michael Garciaparra 2009 · AAA	26	52	39→40	47→45	44	247/307/331	84	314	7	9	23%	6%	83	+0.1	227/282/305	78	304	6	6	26%	6%	68	-1.0	203/267/242	39	270	2	0	24%	7%	45	-1.0
✕P.J. Higgins 2019 · AA	26	48→54	37→45	46→40	49	227/290/301	75	279	5	4	20%	7%	70	-0.9	223/282/319	96	284	8	6	23%	7%	71	-0.8	241/305/360	118	308	12	3	24%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Michael Collins 2010 · AAA	26	46→56	41→45	45	45	222/293/323	101	264	8	7	19%	5%	77	-0.3	239/299/393	154	287	15	8	22%	6%	95	+0.9	254/304/451	197	296	19	4	21%	6%	106	+0.8
✕Dominic Miroglio 2021 · AA	26	47	40→45	46→40	45	227/281/321	94	273	7	6	20%	6%	71	-0.8	213/279/346	133	268	13	5	25%	7%	76	-0.4	200/268/342	142	246	15	2	25%	7%	70	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps