Aaron McKeithan — OGILVIE

Aaron McKeithanC Arkansas Travelers

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 225 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 70 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .311 / .303

PA70

HR1

K%23

BB%8

BABIP285

ISO80

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	67	9	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	0	134	227	164	391	30	196	29	5	166	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	65	10	2	0	0	6	17	4	0	0	154	267	185	451	31	204	22	8	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	315	279	62	10	1	5	24	86	10	1	1	222	307	319	626	97	300	27	8	280	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	315	269	74	13	1	5	34	60	10	1	1	275	377	387	764	112	335	19	11	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	217	48	3	0	4	18	48	13	2	1	221	319	290	609	69	254	19	7	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	207	55	3	0	5	28	33	13	2	1	266	387	353	740	87	282	13	11	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	168	39	5	1	1	12	44	8	0	0	232	314	292	605	60	302	23	6	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	163	43	5	1	1	17	30	8	0	0	264	362	325	687	61	311	16	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	139	120	19	2	0	4	12	30	3	0	1	158	252	275	527	117	170	22	9	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	139	114	20	2	0	3	18	21	3	0	1	175	304	272	576	96	185	15	13	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	SEA	—	106	91	24	2	0	1	12	24	3	0	1	264	368	319	687	55	348	23	11	303	90	-1	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
YTD	26	AA	SEA	—	106	86	24	2	0	1	17	19	3	0	1	279	415	337	752	58	348	18	16	356	130	+4	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.8
ROS	26	AA	SEA	2%	70	62	14	2	0	1	6	16	2	1	0	223	311	303	615	80	290	23	8	293	82	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	SEA	2%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						288	0	0	273	67	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	AA	SEA	—	107	92	24	2	0	1	12	24	3	0	1	261	364	315	680	54	343	22	11	303	90	-1	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
TOT	26	AA	SEA	—	176	153	38	4	0	2	18	40	5	1	1	247	345	312	658	65	322	23	10	299	87	-3	-0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	SEA	33%	209	185	43	7	1	3	18	47	4	2	1	232	314	330	644	97	289	22	9	294	83	-4	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.6
2028	28	MLB	SEA	50%	276	244	57	9	1	5	24	62	6	3	2	234	318	340	658	107	289	22	9	296	84	-5	-0	-1	+5	+8	0.7
2029	29	MLB	SEA	56%	310	274	63	10	1	5	27	70	6	4	2	230	313	328	641	99	289	23	9	295	84	-6	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.7
2027	27	MLB	SEA	33%	70	62	14	2	0	1	6	16	2	1	0	226	314	306	621	81	287	23	9	276	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	28	MLB	SEA	50%	137	121	27	4	0	2	12	31	3	2	1	223	309	306	615	83	287	23	9	278	71	-5	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	29	MLB	SEA	56%	173	153	36	6	1	3	15	39	3	2	1	235	316	346	662	111	286	23	9	278	71	-6	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	381	337	77	12	1	6	33	86	8	5	2	228	312	323	636	95	287	23	9	278	71	-13	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	131	20	2	10	56	147	14	9	3	228	312	322	633	94	287	23	9	278	71	-22	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	1842	1616	354	50	5	28	145	425	56	13	8	219	305	308	613	89	275	23	8	274	68	-66	-1	-2	+33	+52	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	126	18	2	10	51	150	20	5	3	221	307	312	620	91	278	23	8	274	68	-23	-0	-1	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	76	65	10	2	0	0	6	17	4	0	0	154	267	185	451	31	204	22	8	223	29	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2022	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	83	75	19	3	0	1	7	16	1	0	1	253	325	333	659	80	310	19	8	303	90	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	232	194	55	10	1	4	27	44	9	1	0	284	396	407	803	124	345	19	12	364	137	+10	+0	—	—	+7	1.7
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	256	207	55	3	0	5	28	33	13	2	1	266	387	353	740	87	282	13	11	335	115	+4	+0	—	—	+7	1.2
2024	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	191	163	43	5	1	1	17	30	8	0	0	264	362	325	687	61	311	16	9	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	139	114	20	2	0	3	18	21	3	0	1	175	304	272	576	96	185	15	13	267	63	-6	-0	—	—	+4	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	7	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
	/162	664	19	7	254	303	396	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	383	6	4	232	312	334	+7	+4	1.1	1.1
	/162	664	11	7	232	312	334	+11.9	+6.9	1.8	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron McKeithan (OGILVIE)	26	49	36	42	50	247/345/312	65	322	2	1	23%	10%	87	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Clayton Daniel 2021 · AA	26	49	39→40	45→40	50	235/294/320	85	276	6	6	17%	7%	72	-0.2	218/270/308	90	287	8	7	25%	6%	59	-1.1	200/247/259	59	262	7	2	25%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Adam Weisenburger 2015 · AAA	26	47	40	41→30	47	223/300/318	95	289	8	4	24%	8%	76	+0.0	217/299/304	87	284	6	6	24%	8%	72	-0.2	196/287/267	71	252	3	3	21%	9%	54	-0.8
✕Kevin Nolan 2014 · AA	26	49→48	43→45	46→50	48	238/291/351	113	280	10	8	19%	7%	79	+0.3	226/266/318	92	264	7	9	17%	5%	59	-1.1	221/258/303	81	257	5	9	16%	4%	49	-1.4
✕Shane Justis 2009 · AA	26	51→52	40	47→50	49	246/307/340	94	288	7	11	17%	7%	83	+0.6	240/296/334	94	284	6	10	17%	5%	77	+0.1	246/300/338	92	287	5	8	16%	4%	76	+0.1
✕P.J. Higgins 2019 · AA	26	47→55	38→45	46→40	49	225/290/303	78	278	5	4	20%	8%	66	-0.6	219/279/317	98	282	9	6	24%	7%	65	-0.7	239/302/362	123	304	13	3	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Ray Chang 2010 · AAA	26	51→54	39→40	40	47	242/303/342	100	286	5	5	17%	6%	82	+0.5	242/297/331	89	285	6	3	17%	6%	76	+0.1	251/298/318	67	306	3	1	18%	6%	70	-0.1
✕Wynston Sawyer 2018 · AA	26	46	41→45	43→45	46	220/292/326	105	290	8	6	26%	8%	73	-0.1	217/286/321	104	298	8	5	28%	6%	70	-0.3	203/278/298	95	282	8	0	29%	6%	58	-0.3
✕Marcos Cabral 2010 · AAA	26	50→53	43→45	43→40	47	242/297/358	115	291	9	3	20%	7%	83	+0.6	234/279/341	107	283	10	6	20%	6%	71	-0.3	232/265/315	84	271	9	3	18%	4%	53	-0.7
✕Marco Rivera 2010 · AAA	26	48	42→40	40	50	231/296/331	100	278	10	7	20%	8%	76	+0.1	240/287/338	98	296	9	8	21%	6%	74	-0.1	260/294/326	66	319	6	2	20%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Tyler Smith 2017 · AAA	26	51→54	39→40	47→50	45	242/293/331	89	302	7	9	22%	6%	75	-0.0	205/261/296	91	271	8	7	26%	6%	53	-1.5	174/240/252	78	234	7	4	28%	7%	30	-1.5
✕Chris Denove 2010 · AAA	27	50	41→40	38→40	46	239/294/340	102	287	7	4	19%	6%	78	+0.2	242/298/356	114	294	11	8	21%	6%	84	+0.6	250/307/345	96	306	10	6	21%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Matt Lawson 2012 · AA	26	50→51	44→45	43→50	42	243/297/363	120	320	10	6	26%	6%	85	+0.7	235/302/335	100	303	7	12	23%	7%	80	+0.4	231/304/319	88	298	5	15	22%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Patrick Frick 2023 · AA	26	48→51	39→45	47→45	44	224/292/304	80	310	6	6	28%	7%	68	-0.5	223/282/306	83	302	6	8	26%	6%	63	-0.8	230/275/280	50	304	0	8	23%	3%	53	-0.3
✕Rubén Tejada 2016 · MLB	26	51→61	39→40	41→50	54	242/322/329	86	286	6	4	17%	9%	87	+0.8	235/298/332	97	276	7	4	17%	7%	77	+0.1	229/289/319	91	269	8	4	18%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Peeter Ramos 2008 · AA	26	52→54	40	44→50	47	251/302/335	83	294	8	10	18%	6%	79	+0.3	227/281/314	87	283	7	11	21%	6%	65	-0.7	185/238/225	40	243	0	15	22%	6%	20	-1.0
✕Elias Díaz 2017 · AAA	26	50→56	41→50	41→45	44	243/282/341	97	284	9	5	18%	5%	72	-0.2	252/295/355	103	296	9	5	18%	6%	81	+0.4	245/304/378	133	272	15	0	16%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Michael Garciaparra 2009 · AAA	26	51	40	47→45	44	246/306/334	88	315	8	9	24%	6%	81	+0.4	224/279/303	79	304	6	6	27%	6%	61	-1.0	199/264/238	39	270	2	0	25%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Bryson Brigman 2021 · AA	26	50→59	38→40	47→50	46	234/291/314	80	294	4	9	21%	6%	69	-0.4	236/290/335	99	301	8	11	23%	6%	75	-0.0	236/292/330	94	300	7	11	23%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Bobby Wilson 2009 · AAA	26	51→52	43→50	42→40	47	247/296/363	116	286	10	5	18%	6%	85	+0.7	232/278/348	116	274	11	4	19%	6%	72	-0.2	200/262/311	111	224	11	0	17%	8%	54	-0.3
✕Ed Easley 2012 · AAA	26	47→42	38→45	42→40	46	222/282/296	74	288	5	5	24%	7%	61	-1.0	242/302/334	92	296	7	4	19%	7%	79	+0.3	251/311/353	101	300	9	2	18%	7%	86	+0.4