Derrik Gibson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | AABinghamton Me… | 446 | .281/.363/.362 | 2 | 14 | 79 | — | .256/.318/.320 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAACOL | 422 | .242/.310/.388 | 5 | 10 | 42 | — | .187/.240/.282 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAACOL | 137 | .275/.356/.517 | 4 | 2 | 79 | — | .216/.274/.400 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 113 | 94 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 309 | 414 | 394 | 808 | 85 | 377 | 16 | 12 | 365 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 565 | 487 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 61 | 101 | 6 | 39 | 7 | 230 | 323 | 300 | 623 | 70 | 284 | 18 | 11 | 285 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 510 | 445 | 107 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 86 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 240 | 323 | 306 | 628 | 65 | 294 | 17 | 9 | 286 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 455 | 405 | 91 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 44 | 93 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 225 | 305 | 272 | 577 | 47 | 290 | 20 | 10 | 269 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 308 | 260 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 61 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 250 | 350 | 342 | 692 | 92 | 317 | 20 | 12 | 312 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 51 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 286 | 225 | 511 | 100 | 138 | 20 | 18 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 85 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 289 | 397 | 687 | 154 | 270 | 18 | 5 | 297 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 340 | 291 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 54 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 302 | 392 | 395 | 787 | 93 | 363 | 16 | 11 | 353 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 150 | 128 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 234 | 338 | 281 | 619 | 47 | 309 | 21 | 13 | 289 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 120 | 98 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 368 | 306 | 674 | 61 | 284 | 14 | 14 | 311 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 446 | 392 | 110 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 70 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 281 | 363 | 362 | 726 | 82 | 336 | 16 | 10 | 331 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 422 | 376 | 91 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 34 | 87 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 242 | 310 | 388 | 698 | 146 | 298 | 21 | 8 | 305 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 137 | 120 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 275 | 356 | 517 | 872 | 242 | 319 | 20 | 11 | 374 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 113 | 99 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 253 | 333 | 323 | 657 | 71 | 317 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 565 | 506 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 134 | 6 | 39 | 7 | 202 | 271 | 255 | 526 | 53 | 260 | 24 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 510 | 464 | 100 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 129 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 216 | 271 | 267 | 538 | 52 | 286 | 25 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 455 | 418 | 86 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 118 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 206 | 265 | 244 | 510 | 38 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 308 | 271 | 68 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 75 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 251 | 323 | 336 | 659 | 85 | 323 | 24 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 85 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 253 | 329 | 582 | 114 | 248 | 21 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 340 | 304 | 86 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 68 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 283 | 350 | 365 | 715 | 82 | 346 | 20 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 150 | 134 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 224 | 297 | 269 | 566 | 45 | 307 | 26 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 120 | 103 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 333 | 301 | 634 | 58 | 274 | 18 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 446 | 406 | 104 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 256 | 318 | 320 | 638 | 64 | 313 | 18 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 422 | 386 | 72 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 117 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 187 | 240 | 282 | 522 | 96 | 248 | 28 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 137 | 125 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 216 | 274 | 400 | 674 | 184 | 268 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 113 | 99 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 253 | 333 | 323 | 657 | 71 | 338 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 113 | 94 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 309 | 414 | 394 | 808 | 85 | 377 | 16 | 12 | 365 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 565 | 506 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 134 | 6 | 39 | 7 | 202 | 271 | 255 | 526 | 53 | 269 | 24 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 565 | 487 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 61 | 101 | 6 | 39 | 7 | 230 | 323 | 300 | 623 | 70 | 284 | 18 | 11 | 285 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 510 | 464 | 100 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 129 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 216 | 271 | 267 | 538 | 52 | 295 | 25 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 510 | 445 | 107 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 86 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 240 | 323 | 306 | 628 | 65 | 294 | 17 | 9 | 286 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 455 | 418 | 86 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 118 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 206 | 265 | 244 | 510 | 38 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 455 | 405 | 91 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 44 | 93 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 225 | 305 | 272 | 577 | 47 | 290 | 20 | 10 | 269 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 315 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 88 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 251 | 324 | 333 | 657 | 83 | 339 | 25 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 359 | 300 | 70 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 46 | 71 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 233 | 341 | 327 | 668 | 93 | 294 | 20 | 13 | 302 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 383 | 103 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 86 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 269 | 329 | 358 | 686 | 89 | 336 | 20 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 369 | 107 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 42 | 69 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 290 | 372 | 396 | 767 | 106 | 343 | 16 | 10 | 342 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 238 | 55 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 231 | 309 | 282 | 591 | 50 | 303 | 22 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 270 | 226 | 54 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 239 | 351 | 292 | 643 | 53 | 298 | 18 | 13 | 299 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 446 | 406 | 104 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 256 | 318 | 320 | 638 | 64 | 316 | 18 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA RAW | Binghamton Mets | — | 446 | 392 | 110 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 70 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 281 | 363 | 362 | 726 | 82 | 336 | 16 | 10 | 331 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 422 | 386 | 72 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 117 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 187 | 240 | 282 | 522 | 96 | 255 | 28 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 422 | 376 | 91 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 34 | 87 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 242 | 310 | 388 | 698 | 146 | 298 | 21 | 8 | 305 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 137 | 125 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 216 | 274 | 400 | 674 | 184 | 273 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 137 | 120 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 275 | 356 | 517 | 872 | 242 | 319 | 20 | 11 | 374 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 113 | 100 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 250 | 333 | 320 | 653 | 70 | 317 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 565 | 512 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 134 | 6 | 39 | 7 | 199 | 271 | 252 | 523 | 53 | 260 | 24 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 510 | 470 | 100 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 129 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 213 | 271 | 264 | 534 | 51 | 286 | 25 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 455 | 418 | 86 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 118 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 206 | 265 | 244 | 510 | 38 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 322 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 88 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 245 | 324 | 326 | 650 | 81 | 323 | 25 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 388 | 103 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 86 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 265 | 329 | 353 | 682 | 88 | 326 | 20 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 241 | 55 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 228 | 309 | 278 | 587 | 50 | 292 | 22 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 446 | 406 | 104 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 256 | 318 | 320 | 638 | 64 | 313 | 18 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 422 | 392 | 72 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 117 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 184 | 240 | 278 | 518 | 94 | 248 | 28 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 137 | 126 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 214 | 274 | 397 | 671 | 183 | 268 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3702 | 3340 | 753 | 117 | 35 | 15 | 258 | 874 | 40 | 142 | 44 | 225 | 289 | 295 | 584 | 69 | 298 | 24 | 7 | 258 | 60 | -174 | +11 | +0 | +40 | +80 | -4.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 133 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 45 | 153 | 7 | 25 | 8 | 227 | 290 | 299 | 588 | 72 | 300 | 24 | 7 | 258 | 60 | -31 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 137 PAwOBA .369 → .285 (−84)K% 19.7% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.71% | ÷0.978 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.034 | ×0.900 | ×1.013 | ×0.982 | 16.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.960 | ×0.810 | ×1.013 | ×0.982 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×1.013 | ×0.982 | 5.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.162 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 2.84% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .369 → .285; ISO .242 → .180; BABIP .319 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 422 PAwOBA .301 → .230 (−71)K% 20.6% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.62% | ÷0.956 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 5.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.07% | ÷1.019 | ×0.900 | ×1.009 | ×0.992 | 17.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.54% | ÷1.045 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×0.992 | 4.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×0.992 | 2.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.73% | ÷1.202 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .301 → .230; ISO .146 → .100; BABIP .298 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AABinghamton Mets · 446 PAwOBA .323 → .285 (−38)K% 15.7% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.70% | ÷1.062 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.87% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.71% | ÷1.034 | ×0.970 | ×1.038 | ×0.978 | 25.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×1.038 | ×0.978 | 4.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷0.956 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | ×0.978 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.085 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 107, 2B 114, 3B 91, K 112, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .323 → .285; ISO .082 → .070; BABIP .336 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAANorfolk Tides · 150 PAwOBA .282 → .251 (−31)K% 20.7% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.67% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.67% | ÷1.060 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.80% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 26.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 1.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.097 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .251; ISO .047 → .043; BABIP .309 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABowie Baysox · 120 PAwOBA .307 → .272 (−35)K% 14.2% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.17% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.17% | ÷1.014 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.69% | ÷1.023 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×0.988 | 24.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.999 | ×0.860 | ×1.046 | ×0.988 | 3.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.123 | ×0.950 | ×1.046 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.197 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 125, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .307 → .272; ISO .061 → .050; BABIP .284 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 340 PAwOBA .346 → .310 (−36)K% 15.9% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.88% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.18% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.69% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 27.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.69% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .346 → .310; ISO .093 → .085; BABIP .363 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 85 PAwOBA .296 → .254 (−42)K% 17.6% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.71% | ÷1.084 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.63% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.17% | ÷0.937 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 2.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.104 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 2.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.240 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.22% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .296 → .254; ISO .154 → .121; BABIP .270 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 308 PAwOBA .305 → .287 (−18)K% 19.8% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.81% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷0.980 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.04% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.026 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .305 → .287; ISO .092 → .085; BABIP .317 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).