Jhonny Pereda

C Tacoma Rainiers

Age 31 R/R 6'1" / 202 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.793 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAAMIA	195	.297/.405/.424	4	0	95	—	.259/.338/.356
2024	28	MLBMIA	40	.231/.250/.231	0	0	38	0.4
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	329	.292/.405/.434	6	0	118	—	.278/.361/.385
2025	29	MLBMIN	78	.246/.325/.333	0	0	88	0.8
2026	30	AAASEA	210	.319/.402/.440	3	3	93	—	.267/.330/.356
2026	30	MLBSEA	101	.300/.370/.389	2	0	119	1.0
2027PROJ45% MLB	31	MLBSEA	95	.242/.317/.358	2	1	94	0.3
2028PROJ53% MLB	32	MLBSEA	94	.237/.310/.345	2	0	89	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.793First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$1M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV46

Bat Spd46

xwOBA39

Barrel%13

Speed10

CompsKevin Plawecki (age 31) · Elias Díaz (age 30) · Kevan Smith (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9794vR 86

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .317 / .358

PA95

HR2

K%20

BB%8

BABIP292

ISO116

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

500.251

POWER50

Barrel%

133.4

Avg EV

4688.9

Bat Spd

4671.0

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1024.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 107 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

270

275

—

ISO

048

068

▶▶R

BABIP

385

334

◀L

34.8%

26.2%

▶▶R

BB%

8.7%

7.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.793 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	17	ROK	VSL Cubs	—	215	188	40	9	0	2	22	36	1	0	0	213	299	293	591	80	248	17	10	270	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	VSL Cubs	—	243	215	49	6	1	1	23	16	4	1	4	228	314	279	593	51	242	7	9	278	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	40	35	5	3	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	143	231	229	459	86	167	15	8	212	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	149	128	37	7	1	2	16	21	3	0	2	289	381	406	787	117	327	14	11	353	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	South Bend Cubs	—	359	317	79	13	0	0	37	60	4	2	3	249	335	290	625	41	307	17	10	293	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	496	441	120	12	2	8	51	68	1	4	2	272	349	363	712	91	305	14	10	323	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	32	29	8	2	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	276	344	345	689	69	348	19	9	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	398	344	83	16	0	2	49	55	1	2	1	241	338	305	643	64	280	14	12	298	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	153	133	45	8	0	1	19	23	0	0	0	338	421	421	842	83	404	15	12	380	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	89	77	19	2	0	0	9	10	0	1	0	247	322	273	595	26	275	11	10	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	148	126	31	12	1	0	22	17	0	0	0	246	358	357	715	111	284	11	15	329	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	92	73	23	7	0	0	19	10	0	0	0	315	457	411	867	96	365	11	21	399	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	247	206	56	10	0	4	35	41	0	0	1	272	376	379	755	107	315	17	14	338	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	144	120	37	4	0	5	22	16	1	0	0	308	420	467	886	158	320	11	15	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	264	231	75	15	0	6	32	51	0	0	1	325	407	468	874	143	394	19	12	390	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	106	81	24	1	0	1	24	15	0	0	1	296	457	346	803	49	348	14	23	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	40	39	9	0	0	0	0	10	1	0	0	231	250	231	481		310	25	0	222	38	-3	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.4
2024	28	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	195	165	49	9	0	4	28	40	2	0	0	297	405	424	829	127	372	21	14	377	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	78	69	17	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	246	325	333	658	87	354	27	10	298	88	-1	+0	-0	+7	+2	0.8
2025	29	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	192	159	49	11	1	4	31	40	1	0	0	308	424	465	889	157	388	21	16	397	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	137	115	31	4	2	2	18	22	3	0	0	270	380	391	771	122	319	16	13	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	101	90	27	2	0	2	9	20	1	0	0	300	370	389	759	89	362	20	9	342	119	+2	+0	+0	+6	+2	1.0
2026	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	210	182	58	13	0	3	23	25	3	3	0	319	402	440	841	121	355	12	11	377	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	219	198	53	8	0	2	17	51	2	0	0	268	332	338	670	71	349	23	8	304	92	-2	+0	+2	+17	+5	2.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	17	ROK MLE	VSL Cubs	—	215	195	28	6	0	1	15	44	1	0	0	144	209	190	398	46	171	20	7	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	VSL Cubs	—	243	222	34	4	1	0	16	19	4	1	4	153	223	180	403	27	166	8	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	40	36	4	2	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	111	179	167	346	56	128	22	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	149	134	31	5	1	2	10	30	3	0	2	231	299	328	628	97	270	20	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	359	330	72	11	0	0	24	80	4	2	3	218	279	252	531	33	286	22	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	496	462	108	11	2	8	30	98	1	4	2	234	282	318	600	84	276	20	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	398	362	73	15	0	1	31	69	1	2	1	202	266	251	518	50	242	17	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	89	81	21	2	0	0	6	12	0	1	0	259	310	284	594	25	282	13	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	148	134	28	10	1	0	14	20	0	0	0	209	284	299	582	90	245	14	9	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	247	217	55	9	0	3	25	50	0	0	1	253	331	336	667	83	303	20	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	264	241	70	14	0	4	22	61	0	0	1	290	350	398	748	108	368	23	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	40	39	9	0	0	0	0	10	1	0	0	231	250	231	481		310	25	0	225	38	-3	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.4
2024	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	195	174	45	8	0	3	19	48	2	0	0	259	338	356	695	98	338	25	10	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	78	69	17	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	246	325	333	658	87	354	27	10	298	88	-1	+0	-0	+7	+2	0.8
2025	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	192	169	47	10	1	2	21	49	1	0	0	278	361	385	746	107	378	26	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	101	90	27	2	0	2	9	20	1	0	0	300	370	389	759	89	362	20	9	345	119	+2	+0	+0	+6	+2	1.0
2026	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	210	191	51	11	0	2	15	30	3	3	0	267	330	356	686	89	304	14	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	VSL Cubs	—	215	195	28	6	0	1	15	44	1	0	0	144	209	190	398	46	176	20	7	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK RAW	VSL Cubs	—	215	188	40	9	0	2	22	36	1	0	0	213	299	293	591	80	248	17	10	270	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	VSL Cubs	—	243	222	34	4	1	0	16	19	4	1	4	153	223	180	403	27	167	8	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	VSL Cubs	—	243	215	49	6	1	1	23	16	4	1	4	228	314	279	593	51	242	7	9	278	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	40	36	4	2	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	111	179	167	346	56	143	22	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	—	40	35	5	3	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	143	231	229	459	86	167	15	8	212	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	149	134	31	5	1	2	10	30	3	0	2	231	299	328	628	97	279	20	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	—	149	128	37	7	1	2	16	21	3	0	2	289	381	406	787	117	327	14	11	353	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	359	330	72	11	0	0	24	80	4	2	3	218	279	252	531	33	288	22	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	359	317	79	13	0	0	37	60	4	2	3	249	335	290	625	41	307	17	10	293	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	528	492	115	12	2	8	32	104	1	4	2	234	282	315	597	81	280	20	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	528	470	128	14	2	8	54	74	1	4	2	272	349	362	710	89	308	14	10	323	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	398	362	73	15	0	1	31	69	1	2	1	202	266	251	518	50	245	17	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	398	344	83	16	0	2	49	55	1	2	1	241	338	305	643	64	280	14	12	298	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL MLE	Leones del Caracas	—	153	133	45	8	0	1	19	23	0	0	0	338	421	421	842	83	404	15	12	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL RAW	Leones del Caracas	—	153	133	45	8	0	1	19	23	0	0	0	338	421	421	842	83	404	15	12	380	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	329	299	67	17	1	0	28	44	0	1	0	224	291	288	578	64	261	13	9	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	329	276	73	21	1	0	50	37	0	1	0	264	376	348	724	83	303	11	15	333	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	391	345	89	15	0	5	39	79	1	0	1	258	335	345	680	87	316	20	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	391	326	93	14	0	9	57	57	1	0	1	285	392	411	803	126	317	15	15	359	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	370	337	97	19	0	6	31	85	0	0	2	288	348	398	745	110	367	23	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	370	312	99	16	0	7	56	66	0	0	2	317	421	436	857	119	382	18	15	386	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	235	213	54	8	0	3	19	58	3	0	0	254	323	333	657	80	336	25	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	235	204	58	9	0	4	28	50	3	0	0	284	379	387	766	103	360	21	12	350	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	407	358	98	25	2	3	43	105	4	0	0	274	358	380	738	106	378	26	11	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	407	343	97	21	3	6	57	83	4	0	0	283	390	414	804	131	357	20	14	363	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	311	281	79	13	0	4	24	50	4	3	0	281	346	370	716	89	328	16	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	311	272	85	15	0	5	32	45	4	3	0	312	392	423	814	110	357	14	10	366	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	VSL Cubs	—	215	197	28	6	0	1	15	44	1	0	0	142	209	188	396	46	171	20	7	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	VSL Cubs	—	243	221	34	4	1	0	16	19	4	1	4	154	223	181	404	27	166	8	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	40	37	4	2	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	108	179	162	342	54	128	22	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	149	135	31	5	1	2	10	30	3	0	2	230	299	326	625	96	270	20	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	359	328	72	11	0	0	24	80	4	2	3	220	279	253	532	34	286	22	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	528	490	115	12	2	8	32	104	1	4	2	235	282	316	598	82	276	20	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	398	363	73	15	0	1	31	69	1	2	1	201	266	251	517	50	242	17	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	329	298	67	17	1	0	28	44	0	1	0	225	291	289	579	64	259	13	9	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	391	348	89	15	0	5	39	79	1	0	1	256	335	342	677	86	303	20	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	370	336	97	19	0	6	31	85	0	0	2	289	348	399	747	110	368	23	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	235	211	54	8	0	3	19	58	3	0	0	256	323	336	660	81	333	25	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	407	357	98	25	2	3	43	105	4	0	0	275	358	381	739	106	371	26	11	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	311	280	79	13	0	4	24	50	4	3	0	282	346	371	718	89	323	16	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	235	211	54	8	0	3	19	58	3	0	0	256	323	336	660	81	333	25	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	407	357	98	25	2	3	43	105	4	0	0	275	358	381	739	106	371	26	11	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	311	280	79	13	0	4	24	50	4	3	0	282	346	371	718	89	323	16	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SEA	45%	322	288	71	14	1	6	28	66	3	2	1	245	319	363	681	118	295	20	9	307	94	-2	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	SEA	45%	95	86	21	4	0	2	8	19	1	1	0	242	317	358	675	115	292	20	8	304	94	-1	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SEA	53%	178	159	38	7	1	3	15	37	2	0	0	239	312	350	662	110	291	21	8	299	89	-2	+0	-4	+3	+4	0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	SEA	53%	94	85	20	4	0	2	8	20	1	0	0	237	310	345	656	108	289	21	9	296	89	-1	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	313	283	73	12	0	4	25	71	3	0	0	258	325	343	668	85	330	23	8	302	65	-3	+0	-1	+19	+7	2.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	151	25	0	8	52	147	6	0	0	257	324	340	664	83	329	23	8	302	65	-7	+0	-1	+39	+14	4.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4517	4085	970	176	9	41	366	879	31	14	16	237	305	315	620	78	291	19	8	265	65	-6	-0	-3	+24	+13	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	139	25	1	6	53	126	4	2	2	236	304	313	617	77	290	19	8	265	65	-6	-0	-4	+26	+14	3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 210 PAwOBA .368 → .305 (−63)K% 11.9% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.90%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	14.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.48%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.03%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.31%
Singles /BIP	26.75%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.977	×0.972	23.63%
Doubles /BIP	8.28%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.977	×0.972	6.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.977	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.91%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .368 → .305; ISO .121 → .093; BABIP .355 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 192 PAwOBA .390 → .335 (−54)K% 20.8% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	25.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.15%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.982	10.71%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.48%
Singles /BIP	27.73%	÷0.944	×0.930	×1.050	×0.982	28.17%
Doubles /BIP	9.24%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.050	×0.982	8.44%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×0.982	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	3.36%	÷1.253	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .390 → .335; ISO .157 → .120; BABIP .388 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 195 PAwOBA .368 → .308 (−60)K% 20.5% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	24.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.36%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.78%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.96%
Singles /BIP	28.80%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.022	×0.992	26.73%
Doubles /BIP	7.20%	÷0.970	×0.830	×1.022	×0.992	6.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.985	×0.970	×1.022	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.20%	÷0.925	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.40%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .368 → .308; ISO .127 → .103; BABIP .372 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 264 PAwOBA .381 → .327 (−55)K% 19.3% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.32%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	23.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.12%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷0.998	×0.930	×1.020	×1.003	28.60%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.020	×1.003	7.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.970	×1.020	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .381 → .327; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .394 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 247 PAwOBA .336 → .300 (−36)K% 16.6% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.60%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	20.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.17%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.018	10.12%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.45%	÷0.968	×0.930	×1.011	×1.018	25.15%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷0.967	×0.830	×1.011	×1.018	5.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.011	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.42%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .336 → .300; ISO .107 → .089; BABIP .315 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 148 PAwOBA .321 → .261 (−60)K% 11.5% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.49%	÷1.025	×1.220	—	—	13.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.86%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.998	9.50%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.51%	÷1.047	×0.940	×0.990	×0.998	14.65%
Doubles /BIP	11.01%	÷1.064	×0.870	×0.990	×0.998	8.90%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.990	×0.998	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.780	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 109, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 105, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .321 → .261; ISO .111 → .097; BABIP .284 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 89 PAwOBA .272 → .266 (−6)K% 11.2% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.24%	÷1.021	×1.200	—	—	13.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.11%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.15%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.37%	÷0.974	×0.930	×1.050	×1.033	26.28%
Doubles /BIP	2.99%	÷0.992	×0.830	×1.050	×1.033	2.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.920	×1.050	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.318	×0.700	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .272 → .266; ISO .026 → .025; BABIP .275 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATennessee Smokies · 398 PAwOBA .289 → .238 (−51)K% 13.8% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.82%	÷0.972	×1.220	—	—	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.56%	÷1.047	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.71%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.22%
Singles /BIP	22.49%	÷1.051	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	19.20%
Doubles /BIP	5.54%	÷0.977	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	5.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.69%	÷1.142	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.50%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .289 → .238; ISO .064 → .056; BABIP .280 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#2A.J. Ellislast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,290 PA	3.4	2,290	44	2	240	342	354	+41	-16	8.9	9.1
/162	664	13	1	+11.9	-4.7	2.6	pk7: 9
#3Joe Nolan'72-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,649 PA	2.5	1,649	27	7	257*	335*	403*	+27	+0	7.2	7.3
/162	664	11	3	+10.9	+0.0	2.9	pk7: 7
#4Biff Pocoroba'75-'84 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,674 PA	2.5	1,674	21	6	251*	335*	379*	+29	-4	5.3	5.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.3	-1.4	2.1	pk7: 6
#5Lenny Webster'89-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,617 PA	2.4	1,617	33	1	244*	313*	372*	+28	+0	4.9	5.3
/162	664	14	0	+11.4	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 6
#6Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.6	368	5	1	259	329	361	+7	+2	1.5	1.5
/162	664	10	1	+11.9	+4.5	2.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhonny Pereda (OGILVIE)	31	60	50	45	60	243/316/359	117	295	4	1	20%	9%	94	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Plawecki 2022 · MLB	31	54→59	44→45	47→30	50	264/327/385	121	301	12	5	16%	7%	103	+1.5	233/294/335	102	278	9	3	19%	7%	79	-0.2	216/275/308	92	258	8	0	19%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Elias Díaz 2021 · MLB	30	51→59	44→50	44→45	49	249/304/360	111	287	11	3	18%	7%	88	+0.5	236/293/387	151	270	18	2	19%	7%	91	+0.7	236/292/382	147	273	17	0	20%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB	32	53→54	44→50	49→40	48	259/314/378	119	292	12	5	16%	6%	97	+1.1	229/296/348	119	289	11	7	23%	8%	83	+0.1	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕P.J. Higgins 2024 · MLB	31	50→54	45	49→40	47	245/310/374	129	313	13	4	25%	8%	94	+0.9	212/262/303	91	278	8	2	25%	6%	59	-1.6	196/245/268	72	256	6	0	25%	5%	43	-2.0
✕A.J. Ellis 2013 · MLB	32	52→54	44→45	41→40	57	254/348/376	122	301	12	2	19%	11%	109	+2.0	232/325/351	119	271	12	2	18%	11%	95	+1.0	219/320/329	110	252	11	0	17%	12%	91	+0.4
●Marco Scutaro 2007 · MLB	31	53→63	45	51→45	55	256/321/390	134	284	10	7	14%	9%	101	+1.4	261/339/374	113	287	10	8	12%	10%	105	+1.7	272/347/387	115	291	10	8	10%	10%	111	+2.2
✕David Freitas 2019 · MLB	30	52→60	43→45	48→40	46	251/304/367	115	305	9	3	20%	6%	90	+0.6	261/325/388	127	315	13	4	20%	8%	103	+1.5	257/318/373	116	309	13	0	20%	7%	95	+0.3
✕John Baker 2011 · MLB	30	53→59	45	44→45	51	259/330/389	131	314	12	3	21%	9%	105	+1.7	227/302/319	92	292	7	6	23%	9%	79	-0.2	193/263/235	42	263	3	2	26%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→49	47→50	49→45	46	248/306/380	132	316	14	5	26%	7%	94	+0.9	224/280/354	130	280	14	11	25%	7%	78	-0.3	192/244/301	110	234	13	13	24%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Austin Nola 2023 · MLB	33	53→52	42→45	43→45	53	254/326/358	105	288	9	4	15%	8%	97	+1.1	205/275/292	87	252	8	4	21%	8%	63	-1.4	171/239/235	64	217	5	0	23%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2009 · MLB	31	53→56	44→45	41→50	48	259/315/376	117	309	11	8	20%	7%	96	+1.0	246/303/370	124	294	13	8	20%	7%	91	+0.6	238/287/346	108	284	11	12	20%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Curt Casali 2020 · MLB	31	49	48→50	40→30	48	244/309/380	137	296	16	3	23%	8%	95	+1.0	230/320/392	162	298	19	5	28%	10%	103	+1.5	207/312/292	85	276	8	0	25%	11%	77	-0.1
✕Austin Wynns 2023 · MLB	32	51	45	48→40	50	251/319/369	117	301	13	5	21%	8%	97	+1.1	234/291/359	125	301	13	5	26%	7%	84	+0.1	220/267/354	134	290	15	1	29%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Dioner Navarro 2015 · MLB	31	54→61	49→50	46→45	49	272/320/411	139	294	17	4	15%	6%	106	+1.8	239/296/370	131	274	15	4	18%	7%	88	+0.4	209/274/317	109	246	12	1	20%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Felipe Lopez 2011 · MLB	31	55→64	43→55	44→55	55	267/336/382	115	309	10	9	16%	9%	105	+1.7	239/297/356	117	291	12	7	21%	7%	85	+0.2	231/276/326	95	288	11	3	23%	5%	68	-0.6
✕Ramon Martinez 2004 · MLB	31	54→52	42→45	44→40	51	259/317/368	109	291	9	4	14%	7%	95	+0.9	256/312/353	97	287	8	4	13%	7%	89	+0.5	261/316/341	80	290	6	1	11%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	48→47	50→55	43→40	53	241/325/403	161	293	17	8	23%	10%	107	+1.8	206/298/335	129	283	12	6	29%	11%	82	-0.0	175/275/285	109	248	10	2	31%	11%	60	-0.7
✕Humberto Cota 2010 · MLB	31	48	46→50	45→30	48	239/296/367	128	286	13	5	21%	8%	87	+0.4	253/316/370	117	307	12	3	20%	8%	95	+1.0	261/326/366	105	317	10	1	20%	8%	96	+0.6
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	46→51	47→50	49→40	43	232/282/367	136	297	14	5	27%	6%	82	-0.0	205/258/332	127	273	15	6	29%	7%	65	-1.2	160/212/265	105	214	15	2	32%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Dave Berg 2002 · MLB	31	50→56	43→45	46→40	51	241/309/357	116	283	9	5	18%	8%	90	+0.6	253/304/369	116	292	10	3	16%	6%	91	+0.6	257/304/364	107	296	9	0	16%	5%	90	+0.2

Jhonny Pereda

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps