Victor Mesa Jr.CF
Durham Bulls
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 24
L/L
5'11" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.4 · 2029
wRC+†109
AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .278 / .369
PA119
HR3
K%24
BB%6
MLB%40%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
60→60
PWR
60→60
SPD
50→50
EYE
43↗50
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.7M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $5M | +$1M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 207 | 186 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 4 | .210 | .272 | .290 | .563 | .081 | .259 | 20 | 7 | .245 | 46 | -13 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 474 | 438 | 94 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 136 | 3 | 12 | 5 | .215 | .259 | .320 | .578 | .105 | .290 | 29 | 5 | .253 | 52 | -26 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +13 | -1.7 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | 2 teams | 592 | 536 | 113 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 141 | 5 | 10 | 5 | .211 | .276 | .297 | .572 | .086 | .273 | 24 | 7 | .253 | 52 | -32 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +17 | -2.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 533 | 498 | 98 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 160 | 6 | 16 | 3 | .197 | .245 | .335 | .581 | .139 | .255 | 30 | 5 | .251 | 50 | -30 | +2 | +0 | -6 | +15 | -1.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 355 | 330 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 93 | 2 | 5 | 2 | .227 | .274 | .379 | .652 | .152 | .276 | 26 | 5 | .280 | 72 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | 3 teams | 248 | 227 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 1 | .229 | .289 | .379 | .667 | .150 | .251 | 18 | 7 | .287 | 78 | -6 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 72 | 65 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .277 | .347 | .492 | .840 | .215 | .364 | 26 | 10 | .346 | 123 | +2 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 47 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .205 | .255 | .318 | .574 | .114 | .283 | 23 | 6 | .300 | 87 | -1 | -0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | 119 | 109 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 7 | .248 | .311 | .422 | .733 | .174 | .316 | 25 | 8 | .328 | 109 | +1 | -2 | -0 | -1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB 56% | TB | 377 | 345 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 83 | 2 | 6 | 6 | .241 | .299 | .406 | .705 | .165 | .277 | 22 | 7 | .307 | 93 | -3 | -1 | -2 | -4 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB 74% | TB | 413 | 376 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 31 | 91 | 3 | 6 | 7 | .242 | .305 | .412 | .717 | .170 | .280 | 22 | 8 | .315 | 99 | -0 | -2 | -2 | -4 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB 89% | TB | 419 | 381 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 93 | 3 | 6 | 7 | .241 | .305 | .409 | .715 | .168 | .280 | 22 | 8 | .315 | 100 | -0 | -2 | -2 | -4 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB 95% | TB | 421 | 383 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 94 | 3 | 6 | 6 | .240 | .304 | .407 | .711 | .167 | .281 | 22 | 8 | .315 | 99 | -0 | -1 | -3 | -5 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 413 | 375 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 6 | .243 | .307 | .413 | .721 | .171 | .280 | 23 | 8 | .313 | 98 | -1 | -1 | -3 | -4 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 407 | 369 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 94 | 3 | 4 | 6 | .236 | .302 | .398 | .700 | .163 | .279 | 23 | 8 | .310 | 95 | -2 | -2 | -4 | -4 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 392 | 357 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 5 | .232 | .296 | .389 | .685 | .157 | .278 | 23 | 8 | .306 | 93 | -3 | -2 | -5 | -4 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 373 | 339 | 77 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 89 | 2 | 0 | 4 | .227 | .292 | .375 | .667 | .147 | .277 | 24 | 8 | .302 | 89 | -5 | -2 | -5 | -4 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 343 | 312 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .228 | .291 | .375 | .666 | .147 | .276 | 24 | 8 | .297 | 85 | -6 | -1 | -6 | -4 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TB | 299 | 272 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .224 | .290 | .364 | .654 | .140 | .275 | 25 | 8 | .290 | 80 | -7 | -1 | -6 | -3 | +8 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6313 | 5768 | 1308 | 253 | 34 | 169 | 441 | 1518 | 43 | 90 | 73 | .227 | .287 | .370 | .657 | .144 | .276 | 24 | 7 | .289 | 80 | -146 | -11 | -39 | -68 | +179 | -8.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 594 | 135 | 26 | 4 | 17 | 45 | 156 | 4 | 9 | 8 | .227 | .286 | .370 | .657 | .143 | .277 | 24 | 7 | .289 | 80 | -15 | -1 | -4 | -7 | +18 | -0.9 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 207 | 176 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 4 | .284 | .371 | .398 | .769 | .114 | .327 | 14 | 12 | .339 | 118 | +4 | -0 | — | — | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 474 | 428 | 114 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 33 | 102 | 3 | 12 | 5 | .266 | .323 | .402 | .725 | .136 | .329 | 22 | 7 | .317 | 100 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 525 | 460 | 112 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 100 | 4 | 10 | 4 | .243 | .327 | .346 | .673 | .102 | .296 | 19 | 10 | .303 | 90 | -6 | +0 | — | — | +15 | 1.0 |
| 2022 | 20 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | 67 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .207 | .313 | .431 | .744 | .224 | .238 | 21 | 12 | .329 | 110 | +1 | -0 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 533 | 483 | 117 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 41 | 122 | 6 | 16 | 3 | .242 | .309 | .412 | .721 | .170 | .287 | 23 | 8 | .320 | 103 | +2 | +2 | — | — | +15 | 1.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 355 | 321 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 77 | 2 | 5 | 2 | .259 | .322 | .430 | .752 | .171 | .299 | 22 | 8 | .331 | 111 | +5 | +0 | — | — | +10 | 1.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 38 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .297 | .344 | .641 | .156 | .192 | 13 | 13 | .286 | 77 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 171 | 153 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | .301 | .371 | .510 | .880 | .209 | .328 | 16 | 10 | .385 | 153 | +10 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 39 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .282 | .250 | .532 | .028 | .250 | 10 | 5 | .250 | 50 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 38 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .297 | .344 | .641 | .156 | .192 | 13 | 13 | .286 | 77 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Victor Mesa Jr. (OGILVIE) | 24 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 | .225/.278/.369 | .144 | .272 | 3 | 2 | 24% | 6% | 80 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Gavin Lux 2022 · MLB |
24 | 50→58 | 48→50 | 49→50 | 50 | .247/.315/.392 | .145 | .307 | 16 | 8 | 24% | 9% | 100 | +1.7 | .255/.326/.376 | .121 | .320 | 10 | 8 | 22% | 10% | 100 | +1.7 | .263/.338/.380 | .117 | .334 | 8 | 5 | 22% | 10% | 103 | +1.6 |
|
●Alec Burleson 2023 · MLB |
24 | 48→57 | 51→55 | 49→45 | 43 | .250/.289/.400 | .151 | .289 | 20 | 6 | 22% | 5% | 92 | +1.2 | .258/.305/.410 | .152 | .282 | 19 | 7 | 16% | 6% | 101 | +1.8 | .275/.329/.435 | .160 | .291 | 21 | 7 | 14% | 7% | 114 | +1.9 |
|
✕Brandon Jones 2009 · MLB |
25 | 49→53 | 47→55 | 48→50 | 44 | .244/.293/.387 | .143 | .306 | 14 | 12 | 25% | 6% | 89 | +1.0 | .232/.292/.343 | .111 | .295 | 9 | 8 | 23% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .219/.287/.315 | .096 | .282 | 7 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 66 | -0.4 |
|
✕Nick Williams 2018 · MLB |
24 | 49→56 | 49→55 | 45 | 37 | .246/.283/.400 | .155 | .325 | 17 | 7 | 30% | 4% | 89 | +1.0 | .242/.296/.403 | .161 | .318 | 19 | 5 | 29% | 6% | 95 | +1.4 | .235/.295/.392 | .157 | .306 | 19 | 5 | 29% | 6% | 88 | +0.4 |
|
●Rowdy Tellez 2019 · MLB |
24 | 46→50 | 46→60 | 45 | 44 | .229/.282/.362 | .133 | .278 | 14 | 7 | 23% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .244/.304/.431 | .187 | .290 | 24 | 4 | 24% | 7% | 107 | +2.2 | .249/.317/.464 | .215 | .286 | 29 | 1 | 24% | 8% | 114 | +1.6 |
|
✕Danny Richar 2008 · MLB |
25 | 51→61 | 48→55 | 49→50 | 46 | .254/.299/.408 | .154 | .289 | 15 | 9 | 18% | 6% | 97 | +1.5 | .246/.284/.375 | .129 | .289 | 12 | 11 | 19% | 5% | 82 | +0.5 | .276/.310/.374 | .098 | .329 | 8 | 14 | 18% | 4% | 90 | +0.7 |
|
●Cedric Mullins 2019 · MLB |
24 | 46→56 | 48→55 | 53→60 | 44 | .233/.276/.379 | .145 | .272 | 14 | 15 | 20% | 5% | 80 | +0.4 | .229/.283/.363 | .134 | .269 | 14 | 22 | 20% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .254/.323/.426 | .171 | .293 | 19 | 27 | 19% | 8% | 108 | +2.3 |
|
✕Brandon Allen 2010 · MLB |
24 | 44→47 | 53→55 | 50 | 42 | .231/.283/.408 | .177 | .289 | 21 | 8 | 28% | 6% | 92 | +1.2 | .223/.302/.402 | .179 | .290 | 21 | 10 | 29% | 9% | 98 | +1.6 | .211/.300/.391 | .180 | .277 | 22 | 9 | 31% | 10% | 91 | +0.8 |
|
●Jason Kipnis 2012 · MLB |
25 | 50→60 | 49→55 | 57→55 | 45 | .250/.308/.407 | .157 | .308 | 15 | 12 | 24% | 7% | 101 | +1.8 | .258/.331/.399 | .141 | .311 | 13 | 22 | 20% | 9% | 108 | +2.3 | .270/.347/.400 | .130 | .326 | 10 | 21 | 19% | 10% | 110 | +2.5 |
|
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2013 · MLB |
24 | 48→58 | 48→55 | 47→45 | 43 | .244/.291/.389 | .145 | .283 | 16 | 4 | 20% | 5% | 89 | +1.0 | .255/.306/.408 | .153 | .299 | 16 | 5 | 20% | 6% | 101 | +1.8 | .255/.309/.399 | .144 | .300 | 15 | 4 | 20% | 6% | 96 | +1.2 |
|
●Nate Schierholtz 2008 · MLB |
24 | 53→58 | 48→55 | 50 | 38 | .261/.291/.410 | .150 | .315 | 14 | 9 | 22% | 3% | 95 | +1.4 | .259/.298/.415 | .156 | .297 | 14 | 10 | 17% | 4% | 98 | +1.6 | .251/.305/.418 | .167 | .282 | 18 | 8 | 18% | 6% | 98 | +1.0 |
|
●Brennan Boesch 2011 · MLB |
26 | 47→55 | 51→55 | 51→50 | 42 | .242/.290/.405 | .163 | .295 | 18 | 8 | 25% | 6% | 93 | +1.3 | .255/.309/.410 | .155 | .300 | 17 | 8 | 21% | 6% | 102 | +1.9 | .252/.300/.410 | .158 | .299 | 18 | 9 | 22% | 6% | 95 | +1.2 |
|
●Jason Kubel 2007 · MLB |
25 | 48→57 | 50→60 | 51→40 | 45 | .247/.290/.399 | .152 | .280 | 18 | 8 | 20% | 6% | 92 | +1.2 | .267/.327/.450 | .183 | .301 | 20 | 5 | 18% | 8% | 120 | +3.1 | .279/.347/.483 | .205 | .310 | 23 | 2 | 18% | 9% | 131 | +3.4 |
|
●Alex Kirilloff 2022 · MLB |
24 | 48→58 | 49→55 | 44→45 | 43 | .242/.290/.386 | .144 | .291 | 17 | 7 | 23% | 6% | 89 | +0.9 | .261/.326/.439 | .178 | .314 | 22 | 5 | 23% | 7% | 118 | +3.0 | .260/.331/.442 | .182 | .315 | 23 | 2 | 24% | 8% | 116 | +1.4 |
|
✕Shane Costa 2006 · MLB |
24 | 49→57 | 46→50 | 50 | 48 | .240/.292/.372 | .132 | .251 | 14 | 7 | 12% | 5% | 85 | +0.7 | .258/.304/.397 | .139 | .282 | 12 | 9 | 13% | 5% | 96 | +1.5 | .264/.309/.403 | .139 | .291 | 12 | 11 | 14% | 5% | 97 | +1.0 |
|
✕Brendan Rodgers 2021 · MLB |
24 | 46→54 | 47→50 | 49→45 | 40 | .231/.280/.366 | .135 | .290 | 15 | 8 | 26% | 5% | 79 | +0.3 | .251/.303/.386 | .135 | .300 | 14 | 2 | 20% | 6% | 93 | +1.3 | .253/.308/.383 | .131 | .298 | 13 | 0 | 19% | 6% | 93 | +0.8 |
|
●Mark Teahen 2006 · MLB |
24 | 50→60 | 44→55 | 50 | 50 | .242/.307/.370 | .128 | .302 | 10 | 9 | 23% | 8% | 91 | +1.1 | .272/.337/.435 | .163 | .330 | 14 | 10 | 21% | 9% | 120 | +3.1 | .276/.341/.438 | .162 | .333 | 14 | 9 | 20% | 9% | 117 | +2.8 |
|
✕Dominic Smith 2019 · MLB |
24 | 49→55 | 47→50 | 47→40 | 43 | .243/.290/.379 | .135 | .301 | 14 | 3 | 24% | 6% | 86 | +0.8 | .254/.311/.425 | .171 | .314 | 19 | 4 | 25% | 7% | 108 | +2.3 | .266/.332/.448 | .182 | .319 | 21 | 2 | 23% | 7% | 120 | +1.5 |
|
✕German Duran 2009 · MLB |
24 | 47→49 | 49→50 | 47→45 | 43 | .237/.280/.386 | .149 | .276 | 16 | 9 | 21% | 5% | 84 | +0.6 | .214/.258/.313 | .099 | .255 | 10 | 6 | 20% | 5% | 55 | -1.4 | .199/.241/.265 | .066 | .238 | 6 | 4 | 19% | 4% | 33 | -1.2 |
|
✕Cody Asche 2015 · MLB |
25 | 52→56 | 47→50 | 48→45 | 44 | .255/.303/.396 | .141 | .317 | 14 | 7 | 24% | 6% | 95 | +1.4 | .238/.294/.382 | .144 | .301 | 15 | 5 | 25% | 7% | 89 | +0.9 | .226/.287/.367 | .141 | .287 | 15 | 4 | 26% | 7% | 78 | +0.1 |