Victor Mesa Jr.
RF Tampa Bay Rays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAAMIA | 355 | .259/.322/.430 | 13 | 5 | 76 | — | .228/.276/.362 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AMIA | 210 | .286/.354/.460 | 7 | 4 | 83 | — | .241/.292/.385 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBMIA | 38 | .188/.297/.344 | 1 | 0 | 86 | -0.3 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAATB | 101 | .307/.396/.557 | 4 | 1 | 105 | — | .250/.317/.435 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBTB | 262 | .260/.328/.498 | 14 | 9 | 128 | 1.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBTB | 272 | .246/.317/.427 | 10 | 6 | 108 | 0.6 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 26 | MLBTB | 290 | .247/.318/.431 | 11 | 7 | 110 | 0.7 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 297 | .246/.317/.428 | 11 | 7 | 109 | 0.7 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 60 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Marlins | — | 207 | 176 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 284 | 371 | 398 | 769 | 114 | 327 | 14 | 12 | 339 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 474 | 428 | 114 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 33 | 102 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 266 | 323 | 402 | 725 | 136 | 329 | 22 | 7 | 317 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 525 | 460 | 112 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 100 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 243 | 327 | 346 | 673 | 102 | 296 | 19 | 10 | 303 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 67 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 207 | 313 | 431 | 744 | 224 | 238 | 21 | 12 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 533 | 483 | 117 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 41 | 122 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 242 | 309 | 412 | 721 | 170 | 287 | 23 | 8 | 320 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 355 | 321 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 77 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 259 | 322 | 430 | 752 | 171 | 299 | 22 | 8 | 331 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 38 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 297 | 344 | 641 | 156 | 192 | 13 | 13 | 286 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 171 | 153 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 301 | 371 | 510 | 880 | 209 | 328 | 16 | 10 | 385 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 39 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 282 | 250 | 532 | 28 | 250 | 10 | 5 | 250 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 262 | 235 | 61 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 53 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 260 | 328 | 498 | 826 | 238 | 278 | 20 | 9 | 357 | 128 | +9 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 101 | 88 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 307 | 396 | 557 | 953 | 250 | 383 | 24 | 13 | 415 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 300 | 267 | 67 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 28 | 58 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 251 | 324 | 479 | 804 | 228 | 267 | 19 | 9 | 348 | 122 | +8 | +0 | -0 | -7 | +6 | 0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 207 | 186 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 272 | 290 | 563 | 81 | 252 | 20 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 474 | 437 | 97 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 136 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 222 | 267 | 327 | 594 | 105 | 291 | 29 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 525 | 475 | 102 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 125 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 215 | 279 | 303 | 582 | 88 | 271 | 24 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 533 | 496 | 102 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 150 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 206 | 257 | 339 | 595 | 133 | 262 | 28 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 355 | 329 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 93 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 228 | 276 | 362 | 638 | 134 | 281 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 38 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 297 | 344 | 641 | 156 | 192 | 13 | 13 | 296 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 171 | 158 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 306 | 424 | 730 | 171 | 284 | 20 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 39 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 231 | 216 | 447 | 27 | 220 | 13 | 3 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 262 | 235 | 60 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 53 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 255 | 324 | 494 | 818 | 238 | 278 | 20 | 9 | 358 | 128 | +9 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 101 | 92 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 250 | 317 | 435 | 752 | 185 | 331 | 29 | 9 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 207 | 186 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 210 | 272 | 290 | 563 | 81 | 259 | 20 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Marlins | — | 207 | 176 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 284 | 371 | 398 | 769 | 114 | 327 | 14 | 12 | 339 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 474 | 437 | 97 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 136 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 222 | 267 | 327 | 594 | 105 | 303 | 29 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 474 | 428 | 114 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 33 | 102 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 266 | 323 | 402 | 725 | 136 | 329 | 22 | 7 | 317 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 536 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 141 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 215 | 279 | 300 | 579 | 86 | 278 | 24 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 592 | 518 | 124 | 27 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 114 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 239 | 325 | 355 | 681 | 116 | 290 | 19 | 10 | 306 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 533 | 496 | 102 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 150 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 206 | 257 | 339 | 595 | 133 | 266 | 28 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 533 | 483 | 117 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 41 | 122 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 242 | 309 | 412 | 721 | 170 | 287 | 23 | 8 | 320 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 355 | 329 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 93 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 228 | 276 | 362 | 638 | 134 | 284 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA RAW | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 355 | 321 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 77 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 259 | 322 | 430 | 752 | 171 | 299 | 22 | 8 | 331 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 248 | 227 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 293 | 379 | 672 | 145 | 261 | 18 | 7 | 292 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 248 | 221 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 346 | 443 | 789 | 172 | 294 | 15 | 10 | 349 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 327 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 82 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 257 | 325 | 483 | 808 | 226 | 293 | 23 | 9 | 348 | 122 | +9 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 323 | 88 | 16 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 77 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 272 | 347 | 514 | 861 | 241 | 306 | 21 | 10 | 373 | 122 | +9 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 207 | 189 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 206 | 272 | 286 | 558 | 79 | 252 | 20 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 474 | 444 | 97 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 136 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 218 | 267 | 322 | 589 | 104 | 291 | 29 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 539 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 141 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 213 | 279 | 299 | 578 | 85 | 271 | 24 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 533 | 494 | 102 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 150 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 206 | 257 | 340 | 597 | 134 | 262 | 28 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 355 | 330 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 93 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 276 | 361 | 637 | 133 | 281 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 248 | 227 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 293 | 379 | 672 | 145 | 260 | 18 | 7 | 292 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 327 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 82 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 257 | 325 | 483 | 808 | 226 | 293 | 23 | 9 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 355 | 330 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 93 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 276 | 361 | 637 | 133 | 281 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 248 | 227 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 293 | 379 | 672 | 145 | 260 | 18 | 7 | 292 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 327 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 82 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 257 | 325 | 483 | 808 | 226 | 293 | 23 | 9 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 380 | 341 | 83 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 83 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 244 | 316 | 429 | 745 | 185 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 328 | 108 | +4 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +8 | 1.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 272 | 245 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 59 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 246 | 317 | 427 | 744 | 181 | 283 | 22 | 9 | 328 | 108 | +3 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 315 | 282 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 68 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 245 | 317 | 433 | 750 | 188 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 330 | 110 | +4 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 323 | 289 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 71 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 244 | 316 | 431 | 747 | 186 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 329 | 109 | +3 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 324 | 290 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 72 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 243 | 314 | 426 | 740 | 184 | 279 | 22 | 9 | 326 | 107 | +3 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 314 | 282 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 70 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 241 | 311 | 420 | 732 | 180 | 278 | 22 | 9 | 323 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 305 | 274 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 69 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 308 | 413 | 721 | 175 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 286 | 258 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 234 | 303 | 404 | 707 | 170 | 274 | 23 | 9 | 313 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 263 | 238 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 298 | 391 | 689 | 163 | 271 | 24 | 8 | 306 | 93 | -2 | -0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 232 | 210 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 56 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 290 | 376 | 667 | 154 | 266 | 24 | 8 | 296 | 87 | -4 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 290 | 261 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 63 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 247 | 318 | 431 | 749 | 184 | 283 | 22 | 9 | 330 | 110 | +3 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 297 | 268 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 246 | 317 | 428 | 745 | 183 | 283 | 22 | 9 | 329 | 109 | +3 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 298 | 269 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 66 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 244 | 315 | 424 | 739 | 180 | 282 | 22 | 9 | 326 | 107 | +2 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 289 | 261 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 65 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 242 | 313 | 418 | 731 | 176 | 281 | 22 | 9 | 323 | 105 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 281 | 253 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 64 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 239 | 309 | 411 | 720 | 172 | 280 | 23 | 9 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 263 | 237 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 305 | 402 | 707 | 167 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 313 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 242 | 218 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 299 | 390 | 688 | 159 | 274 | 24 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -3 | -3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 213 | 192 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 292 | 375 | 666 | 151 | 269 | 24 | 8 | 297 | 87 | -3 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +5 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2473 | 2226 | 537 | 93 | 18 | 91 | 218 | 550 | 9 | 39 | 12 | 241 | 311 | 422 | 733 | 181 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 322 | 87 | +13 | +3 | -14 | -30 | +54 | 2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 141 | 24 | 5 | 24 | 57 | 145 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 241 | 310 | 422 | 732 | 181 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 322 | 87 | +3 | +1 | -4 | -8 | +14 | 0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5406 | 4906 | 1133 | 208 | 41 | 151 | 411 | 1282 | 31 | 101 | 42 | 231 | 295 | 382 | 677 | 151 | 279 | 24 | 8 | 297 | 87 | +16 | +3 | -15 | -35 | +64 | 3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 136 | 25 | 5 | 18 | 49 | 154 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 231 | 294 | 381 | 675 | 151 | 279 | 24 | 8 | 297 | 87 | +4 | +1 | -3 | -8 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAADurham Bulls · 101 PAwOBA .404 → .323 (−82)K% 23.8% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 10.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.52% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .404 → .323; ISO .250 → .191; BABIP .383 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 171 PAwOBA .377 → .311 (−65)K% 16.4% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.37% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.94% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.20% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×1.048 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.20% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.048 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.048 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.60% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.55% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .377 → .311; ISO .209 → .171; BABIP .328 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 39 PAwOBA .244 → .202 (−41)K% 10.3% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 13.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.13% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 3.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 19.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 2.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .244 → .202; ISO .028 → .024; BABIP .250 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 355 PAwOBA .324 → .280 (−44)K% 21.7% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.69% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.000 | ×1.050 | 21.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×1.050 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×1.000 | ×1.050 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.33% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.23% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .324 → .280; ISO .171 → .140; BABIP .299 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 533 PAwOBA .313 → .258 (−54)K% 22.9% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.89% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.042 | 18.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.65% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×0.992 | ×1.042 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×0.992 | ×1.042 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.99% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .313 → .258; ISO .170 → .137; BABIP .287 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 525 PAwOBA .298 → .258 (−40)K% 19.0% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷0.950 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.068 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.885 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 114, K 102, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .298 → .258; ISO .102 → .090; BABIP .296 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 474 PAwOBA .315 → .259 (−56)K% 21.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.52% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.96% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.62% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.030 | 22.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.44% | ÷1.226 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.030 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.37% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.030 | 3.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 99, 2B 145, 3B 99, K 104, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .315 → .259; ISO .136 → .109; BABIP .329 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Marlins · 207 PAwOBA .337 → .250 (−87)K% 14.0% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.01% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 4.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.54% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .337 → .250; ISO .114 → .082; BABIP .327 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .