Victor Mesa Jr. — OGILVIE

Victor Mesa Jr.CF Tampa Bay Rays

Age 24 L/L 5'11" / 195 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION185 act + 123 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .302 / .409

PA123

HR4

K%22

BB%8

BABIP279

ISO169

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

902.7%

xwOBA

570.316

POWER60

Barrel%

528.5

Avg EV

4889.0

Bat Spd

6372.7

EYE50

Chase%

9010.3%

SPEED50

Sprint

6027.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.1M
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	207	186	39	6	3	1	15	42	1	7	4	210	272	290	563	81	259	20	7	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	207	176	50	9	4	1	24	29	1	7	4	284	371	398	769	114	327	14	12	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	474	438	94	11	10	5	23	133	3	12	5	215	259	320	578	105	287	28	5	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	474	428	114	21	11	5	33	102	3	12	5	266	323	402	725	136	329	22	7	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	592	536	110	26	2	6	43	149	5	10	5	205	271	295	565	90	269	25	7	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	592	518	124	27	6	7	61	114	5	10	5	239	325	355	681	116	290	19	10	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	533	498	94	22	1	13	26	160	6	16	3	189	238	315	553	127	248	30	5	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	533	483	117	24	2	18	41	122	6	16	3	242	309	412	721	170	287	23	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	355	330	75	12	1	13	19	93	2	5	2	227	274	388	661	161	273	26	5	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	355	321	83	14	1	13	28	77	2	5	2	259	322	430	752	171	299	22	8	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	3 teams	—	248	227	52	10	1	8	18	46	1	4	1	229	289	388	676	159	253	19	7	292	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	3 teams	—	248	221	60	12	1	8	24	37	1	4	1	271	346	443	789	172	294	15	10	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	TB	—	185	162	39	8	1	7	21	44	0	4	8	241	328	432	760	191	286	24	11	322	104	+1	-2	+0	-2	+5	0.2
YTD	24	MLB	TB	—	185	159	42	9	1	7	24	41	0	4	8	264	361	465	826	201	312	22	13	363	136	+7	-2	+0	-2	+5	0.9
ROS	24	MLB	TB	100%	123	112	27	5	1	4	10	27	0	2	2	240	302	409	712	169	272	22	8	311	96	-1	-0	-0	-1	+3	0.1
ROS	24	MLB	TB	100%	123	112	27	5	1	4	10	27	0	2	2	241	303	411	714	170	275	22	8	308	94	-1	-0	-0	-1	+3	0.1
FULL	24	MLB	TB	—	308	274	66	13	2	11	31	71	0	6	10	241	318	423	741	182	284	23	10	316	100	+0	-3	-0	-3	+9	0.3
TOT	24	MLB	TB	—	308	274	66	13	2	11	31	71	0	6	10	241	318	423	741	182	283	23	10	317	101	+0	-3	-0	-3	+9	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TB	82%	377	342	82	15	2	13	30	82	2	7	6	240	305	409	714	170	273	22	8	315	100	-0	-1	-0	-4	+11	0.5
2028	26	MLB	TB	82%	413	374	91	17	2	15	34	90	2	7	6	243	310	420	730	176	275	22	8	320	103	+1	-1	-0	-4	+12	0.8
2029	27	MLB	TB	82%	419	379	91	17	2	15	35	91	2	7	6	240	308	414	722	174	276	22	8	321	103	+2	-1	-0	-4	+12	0.8
2030	28	MLB	TB	82%	421	381	92	17	2	15	35	92	2	7	6	241	309	415	723	173	276	22	8	320	103	+1	-1	-1	-5	+12	0.7
2031	29	MLB	TB	82%	413	373	89	16	2	15	35	91	2	6	5	239	307	413	720	174	276	22	8	318	102	+1	-1	-1	-4	+12	0.6
2032	30	MLB	TB	82%	407	367	86	16	1	14	35	91	2	6	5	234	304	398	702	163	275	22	9	316	100	-0	-1	-2	-4	+12	0.4
2033	31	MLB	TB	82%	392	354	82	15	1	13	33	89	2	5	4	232	301	390	691	158	273	23	8	312	97	-1	-1	-3	-4	+11	0.2
2027	25	MLB	TB	82%	309	280	67	12	1	11	25	67	1	5	5	239	304	407	711	168	276	22	8	312	97	-1	-1	-0	-3	+9	0.3
2028	26	MLB	TB	82%	339	306	73	13	1	12	28	73	2	6	5	239	307	405	712	167	278	22	8	316	100	+0	-1	-0	-4	+10	0.5
2029	27	MLB	TB	82%	344	310	76	14	2	12	29	75	2	6	5	245	314	419	733	174	279	22	8	316	100	+0	-1	-0	-4	+10	0.5
2030	28	MLB	TB	82%	345	311	75	14	1	12	29	76	2	6	5	241	310	408	718	167	279	22	8	316	100	-0	-1	-1	-4	+10	0.5
2031	29	MLB	TB	82%	339	305	73	13	1	12	29	75	2	5	4	239	310	407	716	167	279	22	9	314	98	-1	-1	-1	-4	+10	0.4
2032	30	MLB	TB	82%	334	301	71	13	1	11	28	75	2	5	4	236	305	395	700	159	278	22	8	312	97	-1	-1	-2	-4	+9	0.2
2033	31	MLB	TB	82%	321	289	68	12	1	11	27	73	2	4	3	235	305	398	703	163	276	23	8	308	94	-2	-0	-2	-3	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2492	2246	536	98	9	86	210	546	13	39	33	239	307	405	713	167	276	22	8	313	98	-7	-5	-6	-29	+71	2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	139	26	2	22	55	142	3	10	9	237	306	401	707	164	275	22	8	313	98	-2	-2	-2	-8	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	5374	4897	1104	205	31	150	391	1276	32	101	60	225	287	372	659	146	272	24	7	291	81	-116	-4	-8	-58	+152	-3.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	134	25	4	18	47	154	4	12	7	226	288	373	661	147	273	24	7	291	81	-14	-0	-1	-7	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	207	176	50	9	4	1	24	29	1	7	4	284	371	398	769	114	327	14	12	339	118	+4	-0	—	—	+6	1.0
2021	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	474	428	114	21	11	5	33	102	3	12	5	266	323	402	725	136	329	22	7	317	100	+0	+0	—	—	+13	1.4
2022	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	525	460	112	26	3	5	53	100	4	10	4	243	327	346	673	102	296	19	10	303	90	-6	+0	—	—	+15	1.0
2022	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	67	58	12	1	3	2	8	14	1	0	1	207	313	431	744	224	238	21	12	329	110	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	533	483	117	24	2	18	41	122	6	16	3	242	309	412	721	170	287	23	8	320	103	+2	+2	—	—	+15	1.9
2024	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	355	321	83	14	1	13	28	77	2	5	2	259	322	430	752	171	299	22	8	331	111	+5	+0	—	—	+10	1.5
2025	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	38	32	6	2	0	1	5	5	0	0	0	188	297	344	641	156	192	13	13	286	77	-1	+0	-0	-3	+1	-0.3
2025	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	171	153	46	9	1	7	17	28	0	4	1	301	371	510	880	209	328	16	10	385	153	+10	+0	—	—	+5	1.6
2025	23	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	39	36	8	1	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	222	282	250	532	28	250	10	5	250	50	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	38	32	6	2	0	1	5	5	0	0	0	188	297	344	641	156	192	13	13	286	77	-1	+0	-0	-3	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#2Brandon Drurylast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,110 PA	9	3,110	109	5	246	298	425	+4	+2	9.5	10.6
	/162	664	23	1	246	298	425	+0.8	+0.5	2.0	pk7: 12
#3Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	9	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	1	244	293	414	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#4Damion Easleylast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,995 PA	9	2,995	77	33	247	323	396	-2	-15	7.8	8.3
	/162	664	17	7	247	323	396	-0.5	-3.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	2,620	94	43	239	303	411	+5	-3	7.5	7.3
	/162	664	24	11	239	303	411	+1.3	-0.6	1.9	pk7: 7
#5Rick Ankiellast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,092 PA	8	2,092	76	21	242	303	426	+2	-5	6.3	6.5
	/162	664	24	7	242	303	426	+0.7	-1.6	2.0	pk7: 7
#6Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	6	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
	/162	664	24	7	230	317	416	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Mesa Jr. (OGILVIE)	24	60	60	50	50	241/318/423	182	283	11	6	23%	10%	101	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Elijah Dukes 2008 · MLB	24	47→52	53→55	47→50	54	241/323/415	174	271	20	12	20%	10%	110	+2.4	244/342/414	170	292	17	14	21%	12%	118	+3.0	247/350/417	170	297	16	14	21%	12%	117	+2.2
✕Michael Massey 2023 · MLB	25	46→51	53→55	52→50	42	239/292/412	173	291	21	12	26%	6%	97	+1.5	244/287/405	161	282	19	8	21%	5%	92	+1.2	250/287/398	149	277	17	3	17%	4%	87	+0.5
●Stephen Drew 2007 · MLB	24	51→57	51→55	47→45	47	258/307/428	170	298	18	6	20%	7%	106	+2.2	258/315/422	164	293	15	6	17%	8%	108	+2.3	272/332/455	183	307	15	6	16%	8%	117	+3.0
✕Francisco Mejía 2020 · MLB	24	48→58	51→55	46→40	41	245/290/408	163	289	19	4	23%	5%	94	+1.3	239/290/396	157	282	16	4	21%	5%	91	+1.1	243/283/402	159	288	16	0	21%	4%	88	+0.4
●Colby Rasmus 2012 · MLB	25	48→55	53→60	47→50	52	245/318/424	180	293	20	8	23%	10%	110	+2.4	239/304/430	191	296	23	5	27%	8%	106	+2.2	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
●Cedric Mullins 2019 · MLB	24	47→54	48→55	53→60	44	235/279/380	145	273	14	15	20%	6%	82	+0.5	226/280/365	139	265	14	22	20%	6%	79	+0.3	250/319/421	170	288	19	27	19%	8%	106	+2.2
●Luis Rengifo 2022 · MLB	25	46→55	49→55	49→55	47	233/290/378	144	269	17	14	21%	7%	86	+0.8	263/312/427	164	296	19	14	18%	6%	108	+2.3	273/324/436	163	306	19	16	17%	6%	113	+2.0
✕Luis Urías 2022 · MLB	25	48→58	54→55	47→45	53	248/334/428	180	288	21	7	22%	10%	118	+3.0	228/325/382	154	274	18	5	23%	10%	103	+1.9	211/314/346	136	257	16	4	23%	10%	88	+0.7
✕Maikel Franco 2017 · MLB	24	49→55	53→55	46→40	47	254/303/424	170	274	21	3	17%	6%	104	+2.0	242/295/419	177	252	24	2	15%	7%	99	+1.7	251/305/434	183	258	25	1	14%	7%	94	+0.9
●Khalil Greene 2004 · MLB	24	47→54	51→60	45	45	237/300/403	166	294	18	8	26%	7%	97	+1.5	257/325/430	173	294	18	6	18%	8%	115	+2.7	255/324/430	175	290	18	6	18%	8%	108	+1.9
●Domonic Brown 2014 · MLB	26	50→54	53→55	47→55	50	257/314/432	175	285	20	9	18%	8%	110	+2.4	231/281/354	123	273	13	10	20%	6%	76	+0.0	229/272/369	139	273	18	2	23%	5%	75	-0.0
●Gavin Lux 2022 · MLB	24	50→60	49→50	50	50	251/320/400	150	310	16	8	24%	9%	105	+2.1	262/333/394	132	327	11	8	22%	9%	108	+2.3	267/342/389	122	338	9	5	22%	10%	108	+1.8
✕Lastings Milledge 2009 · MLB	24	52→59	48→50	51→55	47	260/326/403	144	299	15	20	19%	7%	108	+2.3	264/319/376	112	307	10	18	17%	6%	97	+1.5	264/317/362	98	306	8	19	16%	6%	89	+0.7
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2013 · MLB	24	48→56	48→55	46→45	43	242/287/386	144	283	15	4	21%	5%	87	+0.8	255/306/408	153	299	16	5	20%	6%	101	+1.8	278/335/444	167	322	15	7	18%	7%	117	+1.4
●Luis García Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	53→57	50→60	43→50	42	267/300/427	160	311	17	6	21%	5%	103	+1.9	264/302/407	143	296	15	14	16%	5%	98	+1.6	269/307/454	185	287	24	17	16%	5%	110	+1.9
✕Danny Richar 2008 · MLB	25	51→60	48→55	49→50	46	254/300/406	151	291	14	9	18%	6%	97	+1.5	247/285/375	128	289	12	11	19%	5%	82	+0.5	275/311/375	100	330	8	14	18%	5%	90	+0.7
●Jason Kubel 2006 · MLB	24	51→57	50→60	48→40	53	256/324/412	157	284	18	11	17%	9%	109	+2.4	257/310/424	167	292	19	6	18%	7%	106	+2.2	279/347/483	205	310	23	2	18%	9%	131	+3.4
✕Rougned Odor 2018 · MLB	24	43→52	58→60	48→50	41	234/277/435	201	259	26	13	22%	5%	97	+1.5	223/288/421	198	266	26	12	27%	7%	98	+1.6	215/289/418	203	258	27	11	28%	8%	94	+0.9
●Brandon Allen 2010 · MLB	24	45→47	53→55	50	43	234/289/411	176	292	21	8	27%	7%	95	+1.4	222/301/400	178	291	21	10	30%	9%	97	+1.5	211/298/391	180	279	21	9	31%	10%	91	+0.8
✕Josh VanMeter 2020 · MLB	25	45→47	50→55	50	47	231/292/393	161	278	17	15	24%	8%	91	+1.1	223/303/394	171	277	19	11	26%	10%	96	+1.5	205/310/363	157	260	18	7	27%	13%	89	+0.4