Juan Villavicencio

SS Clearwater Threshers
Age 22 L/R 5'10" / 155 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP40OGV rank#265ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKPHI187.264/.368/.3651543—.186/.265/.257
202520A/ROKPHI126.175/.309/.27221125—.138/.244/.218
202621A+/A/INTL2 orgs489.263/.366/.455143179—.217/.284/.366
2027PROJMLE22MLBPHI526.223/.293/.3571118830.5
2028PROJ31% MLB23MLBPHI125.228/.299/.37134860.3
2029PROJ45% MLB24MLBPHI203.230/.302/.37857890.6
Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed87
BB%82
K%40
wRC+32
wOBA27
ISO24
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%
CompsJakob Marsee (age 22) · Spencer Jones (age 22) · Hoy Park (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .291 / .353
PA210
HR4
SB7
K%30
BB%9
ISO134
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +1.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.30.60.70.80.80.70.60.40.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$33M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.8$2M+$2M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.6$1M+$1.0M
2035Arb-1$2M+0.4$0.9M+$0.0M
2036Arb-2$2M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-3$1.0M———
Totals $5M $6M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Phillies White — 167143 38822 20351 131 266358392749 126336 2112 335 33 — — — — — —
202318 ROKDSL Phillies White — 205169 35643 26415 95 207330343673 136248 2013 303 27 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Phillies — 187159 42731 22444 53 264368365732 101353 2412 333 43 — — — — — —
202520 AClearwater Threshers — 10482 12201 17302 90 146307207514 61204 2916 251 23 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Phillies — 2221 6201 170 21 286318524842 238385 325 366 37 — — — — — —
202621 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 145122 26521 23380 103 213338311649 98301 2616 304 39 — — — — — —
202621 AClearwater Threshers — 304265 7915513 37710 203 298384540924 242363 2312 401 97 — — — — — —
202621 INTLAguilas del Zulia — 4031 5210 6112 11 161333290624 129238 2815 291 83 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Phillies White — 167150 25511 14441 131 167242233476 67224 268 217 33 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Phillies White — 205176 24422 19525 95 136240216456 80167 259 208 27 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 187167 31521 14614 53 186265257522 72271 337 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 10487 11201 12382 90 126248184431 57182 3712 202 23 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 2221 4101 1100 21 190227381608 190290 455 223 37 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 145131 23421 14500 103 176255260515 84266 3410 226 39 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 304278 6612410 24970 203 237298417715 180324 328 311 97 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Phillies White — 167150 25511 14441 131 167242233476 67226 268 217 33 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Phillies White — 167143 38822 20351 131 266358392749 126336 2112 335 33 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Phillies White — 205176 24422 19525 95 136240216456 80175 259 208 27 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWDSL Phillies White — 205169 35643 26415 95 207330343673 136248 2013 303 27 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 187167 31521 14614 53 186265257522 72280 337 232 43 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWFCL Phillies — 187159 42731 22444 53 264368365732 101353 2412 333 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 126108 14301 13482 111 130236185421 56210 3810 206 25 — — — — — —
202520 A RAW2 teams — 126103 18402 18372 111 175309272581 97239 2914 271 25 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE3 teams — 489443 9717712 411592 317 219288370658 151310 338 284 78 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW3 teams — 489418 11022814 661202 317 263366455821 191336 2513 363 78 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Phillies White — 167150 25511 14441 131 167242233476 67224 268 217 33 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Phillies White — 205179 24422 19525 95 134240212452 78167 259 208 27 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 187167 31521 14614 53 186265257522 72271 337 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 126110 14301 13482 111 127236182418 55201 3810 206 25 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE3 teams — 489443 9717712 411592 317 219288370658 151305 338 284 78 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 187167 31521 14614 53 186265257522 72271 337 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 126110 14301 13482 111 127236182418 55201 3810 206 25 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE3 teams — 489443 9717712 411592 317 219288370658 151305 338 284 78 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEPHI 0% 526474 10620511 451572 183 223293357650 134305 309 291 83 -11 +2 -0 +6 +11 0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEPHI 31% 402362 821549 351172 143 226297365663 139304 299 296 86 -6 +2 +0 +4 +9 0.9
202924 MLB MLEPHI 45% 448404 9217411 391282 153 229300371672 143305 299 300 89 -6 +2 +1 +5 +10 1.2
203025 MLB MLEPHI 53% 473426 9718411 421342 163 230302375677 145304 289 302 90 -5 +2 +1 +5 +10 1.4
203126 MLB MLEPHI 58% 485437 10019412 431352 163 231303376679 146303 289 303 91 -5 +2 +1 +5 +11 1.4
203227 MLB MLEPHI 59% 487439 10119412 431352 163 230303376678 145302 289 303 91 -5 +2 +1 +5 +11 1.4
203328 MLB MLEPHI 60% 482434 10019412 431352 143 229301371672 142301 289 300 89 -6 +2 +1 +5 +10 1.2
203429 MLB MLEPHI 59% 472426 9618411 411332 112 226298365663 139300 289 297 87 -7 +1 -0 +5 +10 0.9
203530 MLB MLEPHI 59% 460415 9217410 401322 92 224295358653 134298 299 292 84 -9 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.6
203631 MLB MLEPHI 64% 444401 881649 381292 51 220290349639 129296 299 287 80 -11 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.3
203732 MLB MLEPHI 68% 422382 811538 361241 21 215284337621 122292 299 279 75 -12 +0 -2 +5 +9 -0.1
202823 MLB CTXPHI 31% 125113 26513 11360 41 228299371670 144305 299 299 86 -2 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.3
202924 MLB CTXPHI 45% 203182 42825 18581 71 230302378680 147305 299 303 89 -3 +1 +1 +2 +4 0.6
203025 MLB CTXPHI 53% 253228 531027 22711 92 232304382685 150304 289 305 90 -3 +1 +1 +3 +5 0.7
203126 MLB CTXPHI 58% 282254 591137 25791 92 232304383688 151304 289 306 91 -3 +1 +1 +3 +6 0.8
203227 MLB CTXPHI 59% 289260 611138 26801 92 232304382687 150303 289 306 91 -3 +1 +1 +3 +6 0.8
203328 MLB CTXPHI 60% 290261 601137 26811 82 230302378680 147302 289 303 89 -4 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.7
203429 MLB CTXPHI 59% 279251 571027 25791 71 228300371671 143301 289 300 87 -4 +1 -0 +3 +6 0.6
203530 MLB CTXPHI 59% 269243 541026 23771 51 225296364660 139299 299 295 84 -5 +1 -0 +3 +6 0.4
203631 MLB CTXPHI 64% 283256 561026 24821 31 221292354646 133296 298 289 80 -7 +0 -1 +3 +6 0.2
203732 MLB CTXPHI 68% 287260 561026 24851 11 216286342627 126292 308 282 75 -8 -0 -2 +3 +6 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 25602308 524962262 2247289 6214 227298368666 141302 289 299 80 -42 +7 +1 +27 +55 4.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 13324616 571852 164 227298370668 143302 289 299 80 -11 +2 +0 +7 +14 1.3
Career— MLE — 59595359 116221553126 519172934 19442 217290347637 130293 299 286 80 -78 +15 +2 +51 +104 9.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 12723614 571894 215 217292349641 132293 299 286 80 -11 +2 +0 +7 +14 1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 304 PAwOBA .389 → .311 (−79)K% 23.4% → 31.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.36%÷1.000×1.360——31.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.51%÷1.000×0.690——7.94%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP23.71%÷1.000×0.920×1.009—22.02%
Doubles /BIP7.73%÷1.000×0.830×1.009—6.48%
Triples /BIP2.58%÷1.000×0.910×1.009—2.37%
Home runs /BIP6.70%÷1.000×0.800——5.36%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .389 → .311; ISO .242 → .189; BABIP .363 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 145 PAwOBA .297 → .226 (−71)K% 26.2% → 34.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.21%÷1.000×1.310——34.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.86%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0129.63%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷1.000×0.870×1.029×1.01219.41%
Doubles /BIP5.95%÷1.000×0.780×1.029×1.0124.83%
Triples /BIP2.38%÷1.000×0.850×1.029×1.0122.11%
Home runs /BIP1.19%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0121.06%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .297 → .226; ISO .098 → .081; BABIP .301 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 104 PAwOBA .253 → .202 (−52)K% 28.8% → 36.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.85%÷1.065×1.360——36.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.35%÷0.975×0.690—×1.01511.74%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.780—×1.0151.52%
Singles /BIP17.31%÷1.030×0.920×0.998×1.01515.65%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷0.975×0.830×0.998×1.0153.31%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.923×0.910×0.998×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP1.92%÷1.083×0.800—×1.0151.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .253 → .202; ISO .061 → .048; BABIP .204 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 22 PAwOBA .356 → .223 (−132)K% 31.8% → 45.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.82%÷1.000×1.440——45.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.55%÷0.928×0.620—×0.9852.99%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷1.004×0.820—×0.98517.24%
Doubles /BIP14.29%÷1.015×0.720—×0.9859.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP7.14%÷0.917×0.780—×0.9855.99%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .223; ISO .238 → .150; BABIP .385 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 187 PAwOBA .329 → .232 (−97)K% 23.5% → 32.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.53%÷1.042×1.440——32.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷0.982×0.620—×0.9957.39%
HBP% /PA2.14%—×0.720—×0.9951.53%
Singles /BIP26.96%÷1.073×0.820×1.028×0.99521.09%
Doubles /BIP6.09%÷1.015×0.720×1.028×0.9954.42%
Triples /BIP2.61%÷0.994×0.720×1.028×0.9951.93%
Home runs /BIP0.87%÷0.924×0.780—×0.9950.73%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 115, 2B 103, 3B 99, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .329 → .232; ISO .101 → .072; BABIP .353 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Phillies White · 205 PAwOBA .302 → .208 (−94)K% 20.0% → 25.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.960×1.220——25.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.68%÷0.964×0.700—×0.9959.16%
HBP% /PA2.44%—×0.700—×0.9951.70%
Singles /BIP17.19%÷0.986×0.680×1.017×0.99512.00%
Doubles /BIP4.69%÷0.915×0.600×1.017×0.9953.11%
Triples /BIP3.12%÷1.016×0.600×1.017×0.9951.87%
Home runs /BIP2.34%÷0.794×0.470—×0.9951.38%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 97, 2B 83, 3B 103, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .302 → .208; ISO .136 → .085; BABIP .248 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Phillies White · 167 PAwOBA .328 → .217 (−111)K% 21.0% → 26.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.96%÷0.961×1.220——26.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.98%÷1.033×0.700—×1.0088.18%
HBP% /PA0.60%—×0.700—×1.0080.42%
Singles /BIP24.07%÷0.991×0.680×1.015×1.00816.89%
Doubles /BIP7.41%÷1.018×0.600×1.015×1.0084.46%
Triples /BIP1.85%÷1.090×0.600×1.015×1.0081.04%
Home runs /BIP1.85%÷0.849×0.470—×1.0081.03%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 118, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .328 → .217; ISO .126 → .073; BABIP .336 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .