Eddinson Paulino
3B Brooklyn Cyclones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A/INTL2 orgs | 372 | .245/.324/.353 | 4 | 12 | 62 | — | .210/.276/.291 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 389 | .200/.268/.366 | 14 | 7 | 45 | — | .170/.223/.307 |
| 2026 | 24 | AA/A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 105 | .238/.373/.369 | 2 | 4 | 79 | — | .241/.327/.383 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBNYM | 200 | .195/.258/.319 | 5 | 4 | 62 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBNYM | 46 | .193/.257/.319 | 1 | 1 | 65 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | — | 128 | 108 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 287 | 394 | 380 | 773 | 93 | 365 | 18 | 14 | 351 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 133 | 113 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 336 | 436 | 549 | 985 | 212 | 413 | 16 | 11 | 432 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 539 | 463 | 123 | 35 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 105 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 266 | 362 | 469 | 831 | 203 | 314 | 19 | 12 | 364 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 500 | 440 | 113 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 113 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 257 | 341 | 420 | 761 | 164 | 317 | 23 | 10 | 338 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 295 | 260 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 66 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 265 | 348 | 388 | 737 | 123 | 342 | 22 | 10 | 331 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 19 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 53 | 21 | 5 | 37 | -96 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 58 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 226 | 293 | 302 | 595 | 75 | 268 | 19 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 360 | 329 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 25 | 98 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 198 | 265 | 362 | 626 | 164 | 237 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 29 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 310 | 423 | 733 | 192 | 250 | 17 | 10 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 17 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 308 | 400 | 538 | 938 | 231 | 333 | 24 | 12 | 364 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 36 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 417 | 407 | 824 | 185 | 278 | 22 | 25 | 378 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 29 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 345 | 320 | 665 | 80 | 261 | 7 | 10 | 309 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 23 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 318 | 263 | 581 | 53 | 308 | 26 | 13 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox 1 | — | 128 | 113 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 186 | 276 | 230 | 506 | 44 | 248 | 22 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 133 | 119 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 235 | 316 | 378 | 694 | 143 | 307 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 539 | 480 | 102 | 29 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 154 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 212 | 291 | 375 | 666 | 163 | 277 | 29 | 9 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 500 | 460 | 92 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 151 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 200 | 258 | 330 | 588 | 130 | 266 | 30 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 295 | 268 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 81 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 224 | 290 | 310 | 600 | 86 | 308 | 27 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 19 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 53 | 26 | 5 | 26 | -96 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 360 | 336 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 124 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 170 | 223 | 307 | 529 | 137 | 222 | 34 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 17 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 357 | 400 | 571 | 971 | 214 | 325 | 29 | 6 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 36 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 306 | 355 | 660 | 161 | 236 | 28 | 14 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 29 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 308 | 618 | 77 | 235 | 10 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox 1 | — | 128 | 113 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 186 | 276 | 230 | 506 | 44 | 247 | 22 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox 1 | — | 128 | 108 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 287 | 394 | 380 | 773 | 93 | 365 | 18 | 14 | 351 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 133 | 119 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 235 | 316 | 378 | 694 | 143 | 315 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 133 | 113 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 336 | 436 | 549 | 985 | 212 | 413 | 16 | 11 | 432 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 539 | 480 | 102 | 29 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 154 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 212 | 291 | 375 | 666 | 163 | 284 | 29 | 9 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 539 | 463 | 123 | 35 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 105 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 266 | 362 | 469 | 831 | 203 | 314 | 19 | 12 | 364 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 500 | 460 | 92 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 151 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 200 | 258 | 330 | 588 | 130 | 268 | 30 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 500 | 440 | 113 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 113 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 257 | 341 | 420 | 761 | 164 | 317 | 23 | 10 | 338 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 372 | 340 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 102 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 209 | 273 | 291 | 564 | 82 | 290 | 27 | 7 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 372 | 331 | 81 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 81 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 245 | 324 | 353 | 678 | 109 | 310 | 22 | 9 | 307 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 363 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 134 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 165 | 219 | 300 | 519 | 135 | 220 | 34 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 389 | 355 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 103 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 200 | 268 | 366 | 634 | 166 | 238 | 26 | 7 | 283 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 105 | 90 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 304 | 322 | 626 | 111 | 258 | 22 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 105 | 84 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 238 | 373 | 369 | 742 | 131 | 286 | 19 | 16 | 332 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox 1 | — | 128 | 113 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 186 | 276 | 230 | 506 | 44 | 248 | 22 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 133 | 118 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 237 | 316 | 381 | 697 | 144 | 307 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 539 | 481 | 102 | 29 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 154 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 212 | 291 | 374 | 665 | 162 | 277 | 29 | 9 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 500 | 460 | 92 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 151 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 200 | 258 | 330 | 588 | 130 | 266 | 30 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 372 | 339 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 102 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 209 | 273 | 292 | 565 | 83 | 289 | 27 | 7 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 361 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 134 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 166 | 219 | 302 | 521 | 136 | 222 | 34 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 105 | 92 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 304 | 315 | 619 | 109 | 254 | 22 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 372 | 339 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 102 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 209 | 273 | 292 | 565 | 83 | 289 | 27 | 7 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 361 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 134 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 166 | 219 | 302 | 521 | 136 | 222 | 34 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 105 | 92 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 304 | 315 | 619 | 109 | 254 | 22 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 0% | 200 | 183 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 195 | 258 | 319 | 577 | 123 | 265 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 62 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 30% | 151 | 138 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 262 | 327 | 589 | 129 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 30% | 46 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 257 | 319 | 576 | 126 | 258 | 30 | 7 | 259 | 65 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 46 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 239 | 262 | 501 | 95 | 222 | 30 | 7 | 259 | 64 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 99 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42 | 198 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 167 | 238 | 261 | 500 | 94 | 223 | 30 | 6 | 259 | 64 | -27 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2406 | 2185 | 437 | 94 | 25 | 44 | 171 | 696 | 32 | 88 | 38 | 200 | 268 | 326 | 594 | 126 | 269 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 118 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 188 | 9 | 24 | 10 | 200 | 268 | 327 | 595 | 127 | 269 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -28 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 36 PAwOBA .370 → .282 (−88)K% 22.2% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 14.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 18.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 4.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 4.58% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .370 → .282; ISO .185 → .169; BABIP .278 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 29 PAwOBA .302 → .256 (−46)K% 6.9% → 9.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 9.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 2.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 3.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .256; ISO .080 → .073; BABIP .261 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 17 PAwOBA .376 → .371 (−5)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 32.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 8.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .371; ISO .231 → .217; BABIP .333 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 360 PAwOBA .273 → .228 (−46)K% 27.2% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.22% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.88% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 16.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.030 | ×0.860 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 4.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.997 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.885 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 5.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .273 → .228; ISO .164 → .136; BABIP .237 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 295 PAwOBA .324 → .271 (−53)K% 22.4% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.37% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.71% | ÷1.015 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 22.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.76% | ÷1.051 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.145 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.10% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .324 → .271; ISO .123 → .094; BABIP .342 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 19 PAwOBA .036 → .026 (−10)K% 21.1% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.041 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.959 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.920 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .036 → .026; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 500 PAwOBA .332 → .258 (−74)K% 22.6% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.60% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.10% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 18.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.56% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 6.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.67% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .332 → .258; ISO .164 → .138; BABIP .317 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 539 PAwOBA .358 → .289 (−69)K% 19.5% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.48% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.87% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.16% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 16.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.78% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 8.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.79% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 2.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.63% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .358 → .289; ISO .203 → .169; BABIP .314 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .