Cody Morissette
SS St. Paul Saints| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAMIA | 418 | .200/.267/.334 | 10 | 16 | 31 | — | .164/.214/.264 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AAMIA | 332 | .229/.320/.359 | 7 | 19 | 49 | — | .191/.252/.298 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AAMIN | 342 | .262/.346/.500 | 18 | 10 | 77 | — | .208/.273/.377 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBMIN | 16 | .196/.257/.329 | 0 | 0 | 63 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBMIN | 69 | .197/.258/.328 | 2 | 2 | 64 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 159 | 137 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 204 | 310 | 299 | 609 | 95 | 273 | 24 | 13 | 283 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 379 | 336 | 78 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 90 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 314 | 399 | 713 | 167 | 275 | 24 | 9 | 318 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 434 | 391 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 108 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 286 | 399 | 685 | 176 | 260 | 25 | 7 | 299 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 59 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 118 | 237 | 176 | 414 | 59 | 122 | 15 | 10 | 208 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 418 | 380 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 108 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 200 | 267 | 334 | 602 | 134 | 249 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 63 | 56 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 446 | 737 | 232 | 294 | 32 | 10 | 318 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 269 | 228 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 58 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 232 | 327 | 338 | 665 | 105 | 279 | 22 | 12 | 296 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 320 | 283 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 35 | 74 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 265 | 348 | 505 | 853 | 240 | 301 | 23 | 11 | 373 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 22 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 318 | 421 | 739 | 211 | 250 | 27 | 9 | 332 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 159 | 143 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 161 | 241 | 231 | 471 | 70 | 238 | 32 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 379 | 345 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 113 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 136 | 240 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 434 | 402 | 74 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 133 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 184 | 230 | 323 | 553 | 139 | 225 | 31 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 59 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 113 | 203 | 170 | 373 | 57 | 113 | 20 | 7 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 418 | 390 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 127 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 164 | 214 | 264 | 479 | 100 | 218 | 30 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 63 | 58 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 172 | 226 | 379 | 605 | 207 | 253 | 40 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 269 | 240 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 71 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 196 | 258 | 279 | 537 | 83 | 240 | 26 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 320 | 293 | 61 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 89 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 208 | 273 | 375 | 648 | 167 | 256 | 28 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 22 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 400 | 673 | 200 | 217 | 32 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 159 | 143 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 161 | 241 | 231 | 471 | 70 | 239 | 32 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 159 | 137 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 204 | 310 | 299 | 609 | 95 | 273 | 24 | 13 | 283 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 379 | 345 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 113 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 136 | 246 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 379 | 336 | 78 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 90 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 314 | 399 | 713 | 167 | 275 | 24 | 9 | 318 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 454 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 25 | 145 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 174 | 227 | 304 | 531 | 130 | 219 | 29 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 442 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 37 | 117 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 210 | 280 | 373 | 654 | 163 | 242 | 24 | 8 | 289 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 418 | 390 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 127 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 164 | 214 | 264 | 479 | 100 | 220 | 30 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 418 | 380 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 108 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 200 | 267 | 334 | 602 | 134 | 249 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 332 | 298 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 96 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 188 | 248 | 285 | 534 | 97 | 250 | 29 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 332 | 284 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 78 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 229 | 320 | 359 | 679 | 130 | 282 | 23 | 11 | 300 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 342 | 313 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 96 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 208 | 273 | 377 | 650 | 169 | 254 | 28 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 342 | 302 | 79 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 37 | 80 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 262 | 346 | 500 | 846 | 238 | 298 | 23 | 11 | 371 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 159 | 143 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 161 | 241 | 231 | 471 | 70 | 238 | 32 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 379 | 345 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 113 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 136 | 240 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 459 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 25 | 145 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 172 | 227 | 301 | 527 | 129 | 212 | 29 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 418 | 390 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 127 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 164 | 214 | 264 | 479 | 100 | 218 | 30 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 332 | 305 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 96 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 184 | 248 | 279 | 527 | 95 | 242 | 29 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 342 | 311 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 96 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 209 | 273 | 379 | 652 | 170 | 253 | 28 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 418 | 390 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 127 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 164 | 214 | 264 | 479 | 100 | 218 | 30 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 332 | 305 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 96 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 184 | 248 | 279 | 527 | 95 | 242 | 29 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 342 | 311 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 96 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 209 | 273 | 379 | 652 | 170 | 253 | 28 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 10% | 380 | 348 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 105 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 195 | 257 | 328 | 585 | 133 | 246 | 28 | 7 | 262 | 63 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 257 | 329 | 585 | 133 | 246 | 25 | 6 | 262 | 63 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 31% | 222 | 203 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 61 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 196 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 131 | 247 | 27 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 31% | 69 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 197 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 132 | 247 | 28 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 261 | 344 | 605 | 141 | 256 | 28 | 7 | 263 | 51 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 122 | 28 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 179 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 202 | 260 | 343 | 603 | 141 | 254 | 28 | 7 | 263 | 51 | -28 | +4 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2500 | 2288 | 420 | 89 | 7 | 60 | 160 | 732 | 23 | 64 | 16 | 184 | 244 | 307 | 551 | 124 | 237 | 29 | 6 | 243 | 51 | -16 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 42 | 190 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 185 | 246 | 311 | 557 | 126 | 238 | 29 | 6 | 243 | 51 | -28 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 320 PAwOBA .364 → .283 (−81)K% 23.1% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 17.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .364 → .283; ISO .240 → .174; BABIP .301 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 22 PAwOBA .323 → .255 (−68)K% 27.3% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 3.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 13.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 6.08% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .323 → .255; ISO .211 → .161; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 269 PAwOBA .295 → .241 (−54)K% 21.6% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.56% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.94% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.29% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.13% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .295 → .241; ISO .105 → .087; BABIP .279 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 63 PAwOBA .309 → .242 (−67)K% 31.7% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.75% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 10.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.89% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 11.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 2.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .242; ISO .232 → .183; BABIP .294 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 418 PAwOBA .264 → .214 (−51)K% 25.8% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.28% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.034 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷0.909 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.68% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.80% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .264 → .214; ISO .134 → .106; BABIP .249 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 434 PAwOBA .295 → .236 (−60)K% 24.9% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.88% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.37% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×1.027 | 15.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.01% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×0.959 | ×1.027 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×0.959 | ×1.027 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.65% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.26% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .295 → .236; ISO .176 → .139; BABIP .260 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 59 PAwOBA .203 → .164 (−39)K% 15.3% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.25% | ÷1.039 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.17% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.39% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.90% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 11.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .203 → .164; ISO .059 → .050; BABIP .122 → .113. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 379 PAwOBA .312 → .257 (−55)K% 23.7% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.75% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.71% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 17.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷0.950 | ×0.810 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.068 | ×0.850 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.28% | ÷0.885 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.84% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 114, K 102, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .312 → .257; ISO .167 → .143; BABIP .275 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).