Steele Walker
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | AAA/AATEX | 468 | .241/.310/.400 | 15 | 10 | 58 | — | .207/.258/.329 | |
| 2022 | 26 | AAASF | 309 | .268/.334/.421 | 9 | 8 | 74 | — | .233/.286/.345 | |
| 2022 | 26 | MLBTEX | 16 | .071/.188/.286 | 1 | 0 | 26 | -0.5 | ||
| 2023 | 27 | AAA/A+/ROKDET | 118 | .202/.291/.317 | 2 | 0 | 28 | — | .166/.231/.269 | |
| 2024 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 126 | 113 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 252 | 310 | 562 | 124 | 214 | 23 | 6 | 250 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 51 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 267 | 340 | 422 | 762 | 156 | 278 | 16 | 4 | 337 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 441 | 383 | 103 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 63 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 269 | 348 | 426 | 774 | 157 | 294 | 14 | 10 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 87 | 74 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 365 | 447 | 581 | 1.028 | 216 | 443 | 17 | 9 | 438 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 202 | 184 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 223 | 289 | 348 | 636 | 125 | 269 | 23 | 8 | 287 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 266 | 239 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 45 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 255 | 326 | 439 | 765 | 184 | 274 | 17 | 8 | 337 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 286 | 473 | 214 | 25 | 12 | 217 | 26 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 309 | 280 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 51 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 268 | 334 | 421 | 756 | 154 | 299 | 17 | 8 | 337 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 28 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 115 | 179 | 154 | 332 | 38 | 167 | 29 | 4 | 162 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 68 | 61 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 328 | 377 | 705 | 115 | 306 | 18 | 9 | 313 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 22 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 318 | 353 | 671 | 235 | 77 | 14 | 23 | 312 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 286 | 473 | 214 | 25 | 12 | 217 | 33 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +0 | -0.5 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 126 | 116 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 147 | 195 | 233 | 428 | 86 | 179 | 31 | 4 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 51 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 260 | 283 | 543 | 87 | 216 | 24 | 2 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 441 | 402 | 86 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 92 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 214 | 272 | 326 | 598 | 112 | 249 | 21 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 87 | 77 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 312 | 376 | 494 | 870 | 182 | 385 | 23 | 6 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 202 | 188 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 197 | 249 | 298 | 547 | 101 | 242 | 26 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 266 | 247 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 53 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 215 | 265 | 352 | 617 | 138 | 240 | 20 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 286 | 473 | 214 | 25 | 12 | 206 | 26 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 309 | 287 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 62 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 233 | 286 | 345 | 631 | 111 | 274 | 20 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 28 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 115 | 179 | 154 | 332 | 38 | 147 | 36 | 4 | 127 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 68 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 254 | 302 | 555 | 95 | 251 | 22 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 22 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 227 | 316 | 543 | 211 | 51 | 18 | 14 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 177 | 161 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 161 | 220 | 261 | 481 | 99 | 200 | 29 | 4 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 177 | 158 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 209 | 277 | 342 | 619 | 133 | 233 | 21 | 6 | 275 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 478 | 110 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 113 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 230 | 291 | 354 | 645 | 123 | 279 | 21 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 457 | 130 | 36 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 78 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 284 | 364 | 451 | 815 | 166 | 318 | 15 | 9 | 356 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 435 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 104 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 207 | 258 | 329 | 587 | 122 | 245 | 22 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 468 | 423 | 102 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 91 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 241 | 310 | 400 | 709 | 158 | 272 | 19 | 8 | 315 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 301 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 66 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 226 | 281 | 342 | 623 | 116 | 266 | 20 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 325 | 294 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 55 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 259 | 327 | 415 | 742 | 156 | 287 | 17 | 8 | 331 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 118 | 108 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 167 | 231 | 269 | 499 | 102 | 205 | 25 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 118 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 202 | 291 | 317 | 608 | 115 | 237 | 19 | 10 | 277 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 177 | 163 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 160 | 220 | 258 | 477 | 98 | 190 | 29 | 4 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 482 | 110 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 113 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 228 | 291 | 351 | 642 | 122 | 271 | 21 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 435 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 104 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 207 | 258 | 329 | 587 | 122 | 241 | 22 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 299 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 66 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 227 | 281 | 344 | 625 | 117 | 261 | 20 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 118 | 108 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 167 | 231 | 269 | 499 | 102 | 189 | 25 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 286 | 473 | 214 | 25 | 12 | 217 | 61 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +0 | -0.5 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 569 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 81 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 188 | 288 | 476 | 216 | 25 | 12 | 217 | 61 | -52 | +0 | -8 | -141 | +14 | -19.1 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1616 | 1483 | 312 | 62 | 8 | 32 | 92 | 363 | 23 | 37 | 19 | 210 | 267 | 328 | 595 | 117 | 253 | 22 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 125 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 37 | 146 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 209 | 266 | 327 | 593 | 117 | 252 | 22 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -52 | +0 | -8 | -141 | +14 | -19.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 68 PAwOBA .310 → .244 (−66)K% 17.6% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 20.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 3.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 1.77% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .310 → .244; ISO .115 → .089; BABIP .306 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 28 PAwOBA .158 → .127 (−30)K% 28.6% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 10.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .158 → .127; ISO .038 → .026; BABIP .167 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Tigers · 22 PAwOBA .304 → .207 (−97)K% 13.6% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.73% | ÷0.987 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 13.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.924 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 5.67% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .304 → .207; ISO .235 → .187; BABIP .077 → .051. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 309 PAwOBA .329 → .278 (−51)K% 16.5% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.50% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.77% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.27% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×0.969 | ×1.018 | 21.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×1.018 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×1.018 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.93% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.83% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .329 → .278; ISO .154 → .118; BABIP .299 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 266 PAwOBA .331 → .267 (−63)K% 16.9% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.92% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.27% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 5.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.10% | ÷1.006 | ×0.940 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 17.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷0.957 | ×0.870 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.114 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.60% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 109, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .331 → .267; ISO .184 → .141; BABIP .274 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAARound Rock Express · 202 PAwOBA .281 → .237 (−43)K% 22.8% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.77% | ÷1.072 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.92% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.29% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 18.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.62% | ÷0.958 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.73% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 114, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .281 → .237; ISO .125 → .100; BABIP .269 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 441 PAwOBA .336 → .264 (−71)K% 14.3% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.972 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.997 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷0.991 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 18.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.12% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.113 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.52% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .336 → .264; ISO .157 → .120; BABIP .294 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AKannapolis Intimidators · 87 PAwOBA .437 → .362 (−76)K% 17.2% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.24% | ÷0.982 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.031 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.73% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 21.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.95% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 13.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.969 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.990 | 4.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.849 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 94, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .437 → .362; ISO .216 → .184; BABIP .443 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).