Jax Biggers
2B Sugar Land Space Cowboys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAATEX | 452 | .275/.396/.382 | 3 | 12 | 86 | — | .253/.336/.348 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/AA/ROKTEX | 295 | .214/.360/.265 | 1 | 11 | 40 | — | .175/.270/.218 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA/AAHOU | 284 | .185/.305/.273 | 4 | 10 | 24 | — | .151/.237/.219 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBHOU | 16 | .188/.275/.256 | 0 | 0 | 52 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBHOU | 46 | .186/.272/.254 | 0 | 1 | 51 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 300 | 255 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 39 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 282 | 373 | 353 | 726 | 71 | 323 | 13 | 11 | 326 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 73 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 169 | 319 | 169 | 489 | 208 | 15 | 16 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 327 | 290 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 54 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 224 | 290 | 321 | 611 | 97 | 258 | 17 | 8 | 270 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 241 | 217 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 281 | 345 | 382 | 727 | 101 | 335 | 16 | 8 | 325 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Auckland Tuatara | — | 141 | 115 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 278 | 399 | 313 | 712 | 35 | 313 | 13 | 15 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 46 | 39 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 308 | 400 | 359 | 759 | 51 | 429 | 24 | 13 | 344 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 413 | 348 | 79 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 95 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 227 | 339 | 376 | 716 | 149 | 275 | 23 | 14 | 322 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 452 | 364 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 87 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 275 | 396 | 382 | 778 | 107 | 345 | 19 | 16 | 346 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 26 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 160 | 87 | 247 | 133 | 31 | 8 | 123 | -46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 253 | 201 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 56 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 229 | 382 | 284 | 666 | 55 | 310 | 22 | 20 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 16 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 286 | 598 | 71 | 333 | 31 | 0 | 285 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 162 | 140 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 42 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 193 | 289 | 271 | 561 | 79 | 260 | 26 | 12 | 259 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 122 | 98 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 173 | 325 | 276 | 601 | 102 | 238 | 27 | 17 | 284 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 300 | 266 | 61 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 52 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 229 | 298 | 278 | 576 | 49 | 268 | 17 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 327 | 299 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 207 | 252 | 288 | 540 | 80 | 241 | 19 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 241 | 223 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 238 | 286 | 323 | 609 | 85 | 289 | 20 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 46 | 41 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 293 | 356 | 341 | 697 | 49 | 398 | 30 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 413 | 365 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 115 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 184 | 268 | 301 | 569 | 118 | 230 | 28 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 452 | 388 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 98 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 253 | 336 | 348 | 684 | 95 | 305 | 22 | 10 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 26 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 120 | 83 | 203 | 117 | 35 | 4 | 100 | -46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 253 | 220 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 70 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 186 | 287 | 232 | 519 | 45 | 267 | 28 | 12 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 214 | 464 | 71 | 247 | 44 | 0 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 162 | 146 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 158 | 226 | 205 | 432 | 48 | 220 | 31 | 8 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 122 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 238 | 488 | 95 | 196 | 33 | 11 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 331 | 77 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 65 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 233 | 302 | 290 | 592 | 57 | 281 | 17 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 373 | 314 | 82 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 50 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 261 | 363 | 318 | 681 | 57 | 302 | 13 | 12 | 311 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 327 | 299 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 207 | 252 | 288 | 540 | 80 | 249 | 19 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 327 | 290 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 54 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 224 | 290 | 321 | 611 | 97 | 258 | 17 | 8 | 270 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 351 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 75 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 239 | 290 | 319 | 609 | 80 | 296 | 20 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 382 | 332 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 57 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 280 | 364 | 358 | 723 | 78 | 327 | 15 | 10 | 327 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 406 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 129 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 192 | 274 | 303 | 577 | 111 | 252 | 28 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 459 | 387 | 91 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 62 | 106 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 235 | 345 | 375 | 720 | 140 | 290 | 23 | 14 | 324 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 452 | 388 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 98 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 253 | 336 | 348 | 684 | 95 | 323 | 22 | 10 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 452 | 364 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 87 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 275 | 396 | 382 | 778 | 107 | 345 | 19 | 16 | 346 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 295 | 257 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 87 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 179 | 277 | 222 | 499 | 43 | 265 | 29 | 11 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 295 | 238 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 52 | 69 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 214 | 360 | 265 | 624 | 50 | 296 | 23 | 18 | 300 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 251 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 91 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 147 | 233 | 211 | 444 | 64 | 217 | 32 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 284 | 238 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 75 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 185 | 305 | 273 | 578 | 88 | 252 | 26 | 14 | 269 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 337 | 77 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 65 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 228 | 302 | 285 | 587 | 56 | 268 | 17 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 327 | 306 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 203 | 252 | 281 | 533 | 78 | 241 | 19 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 354 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 75 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 290 | 316 | 606 | 79 | 289 | 20 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 410 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 129 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 190 | 274 | 300 | 574 | 110 | 247 | 28 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 452 | 400 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 98 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 245 | 336 | 338 | 674 | 93 | 305 | 22 | 10 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 295 | 258 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 87 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 178 | 277 | 221 | 498 | 43 | 253 | 29 | 11 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 254 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 91 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 146 | 233 | 209 | 442 | 63 | 210 | 32 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 452 | 400 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 98 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 245 | 336 | 338 | 674 | 93 | 305 | 22 | 10 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 295 | 258 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 87 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 178 | 277 | 221 | 498 | 43 | 253 | 29 | 11 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 254 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 91 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 146 | 233 | 209 | 442 | 63 | 210 | 32 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 10% | 334 | 296 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 91 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 185 | 273 | 252 | 525 | 67 | 255 | 27 | 10 | 245 | 52 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 10% | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 275 | 256 | 531 | 69 | 259 | 25 | 12 | 248 | 52 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | HOU | 27% | 168 | 148 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 184 | 270 | 250 | 520 | 66 | 254 | 27 | 10 | 243 | 51 | -10 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | HOU | 27% | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 272 | 254 | 526 | 68 | 258 | 28 | 11 | 246 | 51 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 261 | 195 | 456 | 24 | 250 | 28 | 11 | 246 | 57 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 99 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 184 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 171 | 262 | 195 | 457 | 24 | 251 | 28 | 11 | 246 | 57 | -38 | +3 | -11 | +2 | +14 | -3.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2895 | 2568 | 535 | 88 | 18 | 25 | 249 | 696 | 20 | 98 | 29 | 208 | 283 | 286 | 569 | 77 | 272 | 24 | 9 | 253 | 57 | -19 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +7 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 156 | 4 | 22 | 7 | 210 | 284 | 289 | 574 | 80 | 273 | 24 | 9 | 253 | 57 | -38 | +1 | -6 | +2 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 162 PAwOBA .253 → .197 (−56)K% 25.9% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×0.982 | 17.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×0.982 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.40% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .253 → .197; ISO .079 → .058; BABIP .260 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 122 PAwOBA .277 → .212 (−65)K% 27.0% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 11.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 15.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 2.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 2.36% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .277 → .212; ISO .102 → .082; BABIP .238 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 253 PAwOBA .313 → .243 (−70)K% 22.1% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.13% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.76% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 12.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.21% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 22.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.14% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 3.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .243; ISO .055 → .047; BABIP .310 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 26 PAwOBA .121 → .100 (−21)K% 30.8% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 11.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .121 → .100; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .133 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Rangers · 16 PAwOBA .278 → .173 (−106)K% 31.2% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 12.50% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 8.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 17.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.017 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 7.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.302 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .278 → .173; ISO .071 → .039; BABIP .333 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 452 PAwOBA .343 → .296 (−47)K% 19.2% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.25% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.71% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.63% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×1.003 | 23.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.003 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×1.003 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .343 → .296; ISO .107 → .095; BABIP .345 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 413 PAwOBA .316 → .254 (−62)K% 23.0% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.00% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.56% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.34% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 17.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.95% | ÷0.875 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.074 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.74% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.85% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .316 → .254; ISO .149 → .126; BABIP .275 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARound Rock Express · 46 PAwOBA .335 → .291 (−45)K% 23.9% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.91% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.71% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 34.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.044 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .335 → .291; ISO .051 → .042; BABIP .429 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).