Jared Walker
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 538 | .248/.375/.438 | 21 | 13 | 94 | — | .166/.268/.287 |
| 2020 | 24 | INTLBrisbane Band… | 98 | .225/.367/.425 | 4 | 3 | 129 | — | |
| 2021 | 25 | A+TEX | 157 | .173/.299/.323 | 5 | 5 | 9 | — | .094/.197/.180 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | — | 128 | 104 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 231 | 370 | 327 | 697 | 96 | 329 | 27 | 16 | 325 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | — | 166 | 146 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 240 | 319 | 349 | 668 | 110 | 359 | 33 | 9 | 299 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 29 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 172 | 111 | 284 | 167 | 31 | 7 | 142 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 125 | 107 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 262 | 358 | 467 | 825 | 206 | 333 | 27 | 13 | 360 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 77 | 67 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 325 | 328 | 653 | 104 | 452 | 45 | 13 | 302 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 150 | 134 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 51 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 329 | 567 | 896 | 313 | 324 | 34 | 7 | 384 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 17 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 529 | 529 | 1.235 | 1.765 | 706 | 500 | 12 | 0 | 751 | 234 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 245 | 204 | 53 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 25 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 260 | 377 | 603 | 980 | 343 | 313 | 30 | 10 | 419 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 236 | 200 | 50 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 59 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 250 | 355 | 485 | 840 | 235 | 311 | 25 | 12 | 366 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 65 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 359 | 415 | 774 | 189 | 333 | 37 | 17 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 387 | 321 | 68 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 134 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 212 | 343 | 364 | 707 | 153 | 314 | 35 | 13 | 325 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Auckland Tuatara | — | 151 | 122 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 344 | 459 | 631 | 1.091 | 287 | 370 | 17 | 13 | 463 | 200 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL | Brisbane Bandits | — | 98 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 367 | 425 | 792 | 200 | 304 | 31 | 14 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 157 | 133 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 70 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 173 | 299 | 323 | 623 | 150 | 310 | 45 | 13 | 289 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 128 | 111 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 162 | 268 | 234 | 502 | 72 | 259 | 38 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 166 | 152 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 79 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 151 | 209 | 211 | 419 | 59 | 276 | 48 | 5 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 29 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 103 | 71 | 175 | 162 | 41 | 3 | 108 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 125 | 113 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 159 | 228 | 274 | 502 | 115 | 246 | 39 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 77 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 208 | 211 | 419 | 70 | 400 | 61 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 150 | 138 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 70 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 181 | 242 | 399 | 640 | 217 | 273 | 47 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 17 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 412 | 412 | 941 | 1.353 | 529 | 364 | 18 | 0 | 514 | 234 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 245 | 213 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 17 | 102 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 283 | 413 | 696 | 235 | 243 | 42 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 236 | 210 | 40 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 78 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 190 | 274 | 357 | 631 | 167 | 262 | 33 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 387 | 338 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 171 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 166 | 268 | 287 | 555 | 121 | 276 | 44 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 157 | 139 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 95 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 94 | 197 | 180 | 377 | 86 | 249 | 61 | 9 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 128 | 111 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 162 | 268 | 234 | 502 | 72 | 274 | 38 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Dodgers | — | 128 | 104 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 231 | 370 | 327 | 697 | 96 | 329 | 27 | 16 | 325 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 166 | 152 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 79 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 151 | 209 | 211 | 419 | 59 | 293 | 48 | 5 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Dodgers | — | 166 | 146 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 240 | 319 | 349 | 668 | 110 | 359 | 33 | 9 | 299 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 141 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 149 | 211 | 241 | 452 | 92 | 231 | 40 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 154 | 134 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 231 | 322 | 396 | 718 | 164 | 299 | 28 | 12 | 319 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 244 | 226 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 120 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 181 | 239 | 367 | 606 | 186 | 320 | 49 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 244 | 218 | 58 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 88 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 266 | 342 | 546 | 887 | 280 | 376 | 36 | 9 | 384 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 482 | 88 | 21 | 6 | 21 | 41 | 205 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 183 | 273 | 382 | 655 | 199 | 258 | 38 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 546 | 457 | 115 | 27 | 8 | 28 | 64 | 156 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 252 | 365 | 530 | 895 | 278 | 314 | 29 | 12 | 387 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 468 | 77 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 238 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 165 | 266 | 282 | 548 | 118 | 283 | 44 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 538 | 443 | 110 | 19 | 1 | 21 | 70 | 159 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 248 | 375 | 438 | 813 | 190 | 333 | 30 | 13 | 364 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL MLE | Brisbane Bandits | — | 98 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 367 | 425 | 792 | 200 | 304 | 31 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL RAW | Brisbane Bandits | — | 98 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 367 | 425 | 792 | 200 | 304 | 31 | 14 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 157 | 139 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 95 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 94 | 197 | 180 | 377 | 86 | 244 | 61 | 9 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 157 | 133 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 70 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 173 | 299 | 323 | 623 | 150 | 310 | 45 | 13 | 289 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 128 | 111 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 162 | 268 | 234 | 502 | 72 | 259 | 38 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 166 | 154 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 79 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 149 | 209 | 208 | 416 | 58 | 276 | 48 | 5 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 142 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 211 | 239 | 450 | 92 | 230 | 40 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 244 | 225 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 120 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 182 | 239 | 369 | 608 | 187 | 319 | 49 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 481 | 88 | 21 | 6 | 21 | 41 | 205 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 183 | 273 | 383 | 656 | 200 | 252 | 38 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 468 | 77 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 238 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 165 | 266 | 282 | 548 | 118 | 276 | 44 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 157 | 138 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 95 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 94 | 197 | 181 | 379 | 87 | 249 | 61 | 9 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2031 | 1799 | 299 | 55 | 11 | 58 | 160 | 877 | 56 | 44 | 16 | 166 | 256 | 306 | 561 | 140 | 274 | 43 | 8 | 233 | 44 | -136 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +44 | -8.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 97 | 18 | 4 | 19 | 51 | 281 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 168 | 257 | 312 | 570 | 144 | 279 | 43 | 8 | 233 | 44 | -44 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 157 PAwOBA .282 → .182 (−101)K% 44.6% → 60.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.59% | ÷0.990 | ×1.350 | — | — | 60.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.74% | ÷0.964 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 9.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.55% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 18.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.94% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 7.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .282 → .182; ISO .150 → .093; BABIP .310 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATulsa Drillers · 387 PAwOBA .316 → .247 (−69)K% 34.6% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.63% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.40% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.62% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 3.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.60% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 22.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.28% | ÷1.048 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 3.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.95% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.28% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 110, 3B 85, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .316 → .247; ISO .153 → .124; BABIP .314 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 245 PAwOBA .409 → .295 (−114)K% 29.8% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.80% | ÷0.957 | ×1.340 | — | — | 41.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.066 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.71% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 4.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.03% | ÷1.025 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.40% | ÷1.076 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.98% | ÷1.058 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 11.42% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .409 → .295; ISO .343 → .249; BABIP .313 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AGreat Lakes Loons · 236 PAwOBA .358 → .274 (−84)K% 25.0% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.026 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.44% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.31% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 14.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷0.983 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 8.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 2.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.67% | ÷1.100 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.12% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 105, K 105, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .358 → .274; ISO .235 → .173; BABIP .311 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AGreat Lakes Loons · 150 PAwOBA .376 → .265 (−110)K% 34.0% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.00% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 46.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.33% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.66% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 14.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.05% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 9.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.05% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 10.09% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 103, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .376 → .265; ISO .313 → .217; BABIP .324 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 77 PAwOBA .289 → .189 (−100)K% 45.5% → 61.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.45% | ÷0.990 | ×1.340 | — | — | 61.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷1.099 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷1.006 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.027 | 29.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.064 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.027 | 9.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.085 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 2.72% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 98, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .289 → .189; ISO .104 → .064; BABIP .452 → .400. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKOgden Raptors · 17 PAwOBA .726 → .514 (−212)K% 11.8% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 21.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.985 | 14.78% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .726 → .514; ISO .706 → .486; BABIP .500 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKOgden Raptors · 125 PAwOBA .354 → .233 (−120)K% 27.2% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.20% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.995 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.958 | ×0.995 | 17.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.958 | ×0.995 | 6.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.958 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.995 | 5.11% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .354 → .233; ISO .206 → .136; BABIP .333 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .