Spencer Jones

CF New York Yankees

Age 26 L/L 6'7" / 240 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 0.628 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AANYY	544	.259/.339/.452	17	25	82	—	.223/.285/.376
2025	24	AAA/AA2 orgs	506	.274/.365/.571	35	29	89	—	.213/.285/.411
2026	25	AAAScranton/Wilk…	233	.273/.384/.557	14	10	97	—	.210/.302/.405
2026	25	MLBNYY	289	.245/.312/.429	11	10	103	1.0
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYY	272	.234/.309/.425	11	13	102	0.9
2028PROJ92% MLB	27	MLBNYY	443	.233/.308/.422	18	21	101	1.5
2029PROJ92% MLB	28	MLBNYY	431	.231/.306/.417	17	18	99	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.628First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Barrel%90

Avg EV90

Speed87

xwOBA67

Form.230/.297/.410 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .231/.304/.414

CompsTaylor Trammell (age 26) · Trey Cabbage (age 27) · Cade Marlowe (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†102

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .309 / .425

PA272

HR11

SB13

K%33

BB%8

BABIP321

ISO189

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

340.238

POWER

Barrel%

9015.9

Avg EV

9094.1

SPEED

Sprint

8728.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%35%▼36% over 99 PA (60d) · proj 34%

BB%8%▼7% over 99 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.181·.178 over 90 AB (60d) · proj .182

HR/BB6.9%·7.3% over 55 BBE (60d) · proj 6.8%

BABIP.325▲.412 over 51 BIP (60d) · proj .320

SLASH.230/.297/.410·proj .231/.304/.414

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.628 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$34M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	83	27	5	0	3	10	18	2	10	0	325	411	494	905	169	387	19	11	403	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	78	69	18	1	0	3	7	22	1	8	3	261	338	406	743	145	333	28	9	331	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	459	411	110	28	4	13	42	133	2	35	9	268	337	450	787	182	363	29	9	347	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	544	482	125	30	6	17	54	200	4	25	9	259	339	452	791	193	401	37	10	348	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	298	263	72	15	1	19	26	109	4	19	4	274	348	555	903	281	379	37	9	386	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	208	175	48	8	0	16	32	70	1	10	2	274	389	594	984	320	360	34	15	425	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB	New York Yankees	—	289	261	64	13	1	11	25	105	1	10	3	245	312	429	742	184	363	36	9	328	103	+1	+1	+0	+2	+6	1.0
2026	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	233	194	53	13	0	14	31	72	5	10	3	273	384	557	940	284	358	31	13	406	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	289	261	64	13	1	11	25	105	1	10	3	245	312	429	742	184	363	36	9	328	108	+3	+1	+0	+2	+6	1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	86	22	4	0	2	7	25	2	10	0	256	326	372	698	116	338	26	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	78	71	17	1	0	2	5	27	1	8	3	239	299	338	637	99	350	35	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	459	432	91	20	4	11	23	174	2	35	9	211	254	352	606	141	316	38	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	544	497	111	28	6	12	39	239	4	25	9	223	285	376	661	153	390	44	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	298	271	57	12	1	12	18	134	4	19	4	210	270	395	664	185	331	45	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	208	184	40	7	0	11	23	88	1	10	2	217	308	435	742	217	338	42	11	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	289	263	63	13	1	10	24	105	1	10	3	240	306	411	716	171	363	36	8	321	103	+1	+1	+0	+2	+6	1.0
2026	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	233	205	43	10	0	10	22	86	5	10	3	210	302	405	707	195	306	37	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	86	22	4	0	2	7	25	2	10	0	256	326	372	698	116	339	26	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	83	27	5	0	3	10	18	2	10	0	325	411	494	905	169	387	19	11	403	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	502	108	21	4	13	29	200	3	43	12	215	262	351	613	135	325	37	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	537	480	128	29	4	16	49	155	3	43	12	267	337	444	781	177	359	29	9	344	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	544	497	111	28	6	12	39	239	4	25	9	223	285	376	661	153	396	44	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	—	544	482	125	30	6	17	54	200	4	25	9	259	339	452	791	193	401	37	10	348	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	506	455	96	18	1	23	41	222	5	29	6	211	283	407	690	196	340	44	8	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	506	438	120	23	1	35	58	179	5	29	6	274	365	571	936	297	371	35	11	402	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	522	468	107	24	1	20	46	191	6	20	6	229	306	412	718	184	336	37	9	316	100	+0	+2	+0	+2	+11	1.5
2026	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	522	455	117	26	1	25	56	177	6	20	6	257	344	484	828	226	361	34	11	363	100	+0	+2	+0	+2	+11	1.5
2022	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	86	22	4	0	2	7	25	2	10	0	256	326	372	698	116	338	26	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	500	108	21	4	13	29	200	3	43	12	216	262	352	614	136	321	37	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	544	496	111	28	6	12	39	239	4	25	9	224	285	377	662	153	390	44	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	506	455	96	18	1	23	41	222	5	29	6	211	283	407	690	196	334	44	8	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	522	465	107	24	1	20	46	191	6	20	6	230	306	415	721	185	338	37	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	544	496	111	28	6	12	39	239	4	25	9	224	285	377	662	153	390	44	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	506	455	96	18	1	23	41	222	5	29	6	211	283	407	690	196	334	44	8	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	522	465	107	24	1	20	46	191	6	20	6	230	306	415	721	185	338	37	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	380	340	79	16	1	15	33	128	4	18	4	232	307	414	721	182	320	34	9	319	102	+1	+2	-0	+1	+8	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	272	244	57	11	1	11	23	91	3	13	3	234	309	425	733	190	321	33	8	324	102	+1	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	92%	482	433	100	20	2	18	41	163	5	23	4	231	306	412	717	181	320	34	9	317	101	+1	+3	-0	+2	+10	1.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYY	92%	469	421	97	19	2	18	40	159	5	20	4	229	304	407	711	178	319	34	9	315	99	-0	+2	-1	+2	+10	1.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYY	92%	456	410	92	18	1	17	39	156	4	17	3	226	300	400	700	174	315	34	9	310	96	-2	+2	-1	+2	+10	1.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	NYY	92%	444	399	89	18	1	16	38	153	4	14	3	223	297	392	689	169	314	34	9	306	93	-4	+2	-2	+2	+10	0.7
2032	31	MLB MLE	NYY	92%	432	389	85	17	1	15	36	151	4	9	2	219	292	383	675	164	311	35	8	300	89	-5	+1	-3	+2	+9	0.4
2033	32	MLB MLE	NYY	92%	248	224	48	9	1	8	20	88	2	3	1	214	286	371	657	157	306	35	8	293	84	-5	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	92%	443	397	93	18	2	18	38	149	5	21	4	233	308	422	730	189	320	34	9	322	101	+1	+3	-0	+2	+10	1.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYY	92%	431	387	88	17	1	17	37	146	4	18	4	231	306	417	723	186	319	34	9	320	99	-0	+2	-1	+2	+9	1.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYY	92%	420	377	85	17	1	16	36	144	4	15	3	228	302	410	712	182	316	34	9	315	96	-2	+2	-1	+1	+9	0.9
2031	30	MLB CTX	NYY	92%	408	366	82	16	1	15	35	141	4	12	3	225	299	402	701	177	314	35	9	310	93	-3	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.6
2032	31	MLB CTX	NYY	92%	397	357	79	15	1	15	33	139	4	8	2	221	294	392	686	171	311	35	8	305	89	-5	+1	-3	+1	+9	0.3
2033	32	MLB CTX	NYY	92%	228	205	45	9	1	8	19	81	2	3	1	216	288	380	667	164	307	36	8	297	84	-4	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2616	2350	536	105	8	100	223	905	24	87	20	228	301	407	709	179	321	35	9	315	91	-12	+9	-10	+10	+57	5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	133	26	2	25	55	225	6	22	5	228	300	408	708	180	320	35	8	315	91	-3	+2	-2	+3	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5007	4528	1011	207	21	172	399	1838	47	226	53	223	293	392	685	169	330	37	8	302	91	-12	+13	-11	+12	+67	7.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	131	27	3	22	52	239	6	29	7	223	293	391	684	168	330	37	8	302	91	-3	+3	-2	+2	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 233 PAwOBA .397 → .311 (−86)K% 30.9% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.90%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	37.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.30%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.48%
HBP% /PA	2.15%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.08%
Singles /BIP	21.31%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.955	×1.033	19.55%
Doubles /BIP	10.66%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.955	×1.033	8.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.955	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.48%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.033	8.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .397 → .311; ISO .284 → .207; BABIP .358 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 298 PAwOBA .381 → .285 (−96)K% 36.6% → 44.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.58%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	44.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.72%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.85%
HBP% /PA	1.34%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.32%
Singles /BIP	24.03%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.976	×1.048	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	9.74%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.976	×1.048	8.11%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷0.944	×0.970	×0.976	×1.048	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	12.34%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×1.048	8.46%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .381 → .285; ISO .281 → .189; BABIP .379 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 208 PAwOBA .413 → .320 (−93)K% 33.7% → 42.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.65%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	42.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷0.977	×0.700	—	×1.012	11.16%
HBP% /PA	0.48%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.41%
Singles /BIP	22.86%	÷0.969	×0.970	×0.990	×1.012	22.92%
Doubles /BIP	7.62%	÷0.953	×0.860	×0.990	×1.012	6.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.056	×0.950	×0.990	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	15.24%	÷1.030	×0.780	—	×1.012	11.68%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .413 → .320; ISO .320 → .230; BABIP .360 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASomerset Patriots · 544 PAwOBA .340 → .289 (−51)K% 36.8% → 44.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.76%	÷1.018	×1.220	—	—	44.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.56%	÷0.972	×0.700	—	×1.027	7.07%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.64%
Singles /BIP	25.53%	÷1.050	×0.970	×1.025	×1.027	24.82%
Doubles /BIP	10.64%	÷0.902	×0.860	×1.025	×1.027	10.67%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷0.934	×0.950	×1.025	×1.027	2.28%
Home runs /BIP	6.03%	÷1.027	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.70%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 80, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .340 → .289; ISO .193 → .160; BABIP .401 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 459 PAwOBA .339 → .260 (−78)K% 29.0% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.98%	÷1.005	×1.310	—	—	37.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.15%	÷1.092	×0.600	—	×1.012	5.09%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.34%
Singles /BIP	23.38%	÷1.004	×0.870	×1.040	×1.012	21.33%
Doubles /BIP	10.07%	÷1.060	×0.780	×1.040	×1.012	7.80%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷0.900	×0.850	×1.040	×1.012	1.43%
Home runs /BIP	4.68%	÷1.006	×0.880	—	×1.012	4.14%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .339 → .260; ISO .182 → .146; BABIP .363 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASomerset Patriots · 78 PAwOBA .326 → .294 (−32)K% 28.2% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.21%	÷1.006	×1.220	—	—	34.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.97%	÷0.973	×0.700	—	×1.042	6.73%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.14%
Singles /BIP	29.79%	÷0.987	×0.970	×1.046	×1.042	31.89%
Doubles /BIP	2.13%	÷0.958	×0.860	×1.046	×1.042	2.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.046	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.38%	÷1.033	×0.780	—	×1.042	5.02%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .326 → .294; ISO .145 → .112; BABIP .333 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ATampa Tarpons · 95 PAwOBA .393 → .310 (−83)K% 18.9% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.95%	÷0.975	×1.360	—	—	26.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.98%
HBP% /PA	2.11%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.67%
Singles /BIP	29.23%	÷1.085	×0.920	×1.027	×1.015	25.84%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.989	×0.830	×1.027	×1.015	6.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.937	×0.910	×1.027	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.62%	÷1.026	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.65%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 117, 2B 98, 3B 87, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .393 → .310; ISO .169 → .131; BABIP .387 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	6.6	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
/162	664	17	16	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#3Mike Devereaux'87-'98 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,102 PA	6.2	4,102	105	85	248*	302*	416*	-3	+0	8.3	10.2
/162	664	17	14	-0.6	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.4	2,890	105	101	228	298	403	+10	-3	8.9	8.8
/162	664	24	23	+2.4	-0.6	2.0	pk7: 9
#4Roger Repoz'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,471 PA	3.7	2,471	82	26	233*	321*	434*	-12	-2	7.8	8.1
/162	664	22	7	-3.4	-0.5	2.1	pk7: 8
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#6Rick Ankiel'99-'13 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,115 PA	3.2	2,115	76	21	236*	296*	423*	+0	-2	4.6	4.9
/162	664	24	7	+0.1	-0.6	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Jones (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	230/304/410	181	320	10	13	34%	9%	102	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Taylor Trammell 2024 · MLB	26	43→48	53→55	50→55	49	221/307/396	175	292	21	17	31%	10%	99	+1.2	211/301/376	165	285	19	18	31%	10%	93	+0.8	195/291/359	164	260	19	18	31%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Trey Cabbage 2024 · MLB	27	48	56→55	58→55	38	238/295/431	193	357	24	24	39%	7%	103	+1.5	223/286/389	166	345	19	25	38%	8%	89	+0.5	196/267/358	162	312	17	31	40%	8%	73	-0.4
✕Cade Marlowe 2023 · AAA	26	46→55	53→55	57→60	42	231/298/404	172	324	20	25	34%	8%	97	+1.1	221/290/356	135	324	14	34	33%	8%	82	+0.0	229/295/350	122	329	10	40	31%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Jake Fraley 2022 · MLB	27	46→47	53→55	53→55	54	234/331/406	171	301	20	21	28%	12%	109	+2.0	250/332/409	159	301	19	21	22%	10%	111	+2.1	258/330/406	148	303	17	26	20%	9%	109	+1.2
✕Derek Fisher 2020 · MLB	26	45→52	54→55	51→55	46	228/307/406	178	315	23	17	34%	10%	101	+1.4	212/289/361	149	305	17	10	34%	9%	84	+0.1	118/191/219	101	184	12	0	42%	7%	13	-0.9
✕Will Benson 2024 · MLB	26	49→53	51→55	60→55	54	234/337/411	178	329	17	25	31%	13%	113	+2.3	213/293/378	165	297	18	19	32%	10%	89	+0.5	192/267/343	150	261	18	17	32%	9%	71	-0.5
●Oneil Cruz 2024 · MLB	25	45→55	55→60	55→60	45	236/302/427	191	305	23	20	30%	8%	103	+1.6	241/313/430	189	323	24	28	31%	9%	109	+2.0	242/319/436	194	325	25	34	32%	10%	113	+2.0
●James Outman 2023 · MLB	26	46→52	55→60	54→50	43	231/309/425	194	329	22	13	35%	8%	106	+1.8	228/314/411	183	322	22	15	34%	10%	105	+1.7	215/305/395	179	305	22	16	34%	10%	99	+1.1
✕Jonny DeLuca 2024 · MLB	26	43→37	56→60	56→55	47	232/299/428	196	258	24	15	21%	7%	103	+1.6	234/290/376	142	279	14	22	21%	6%	87	+0.4	237/287/370	132	284	13	27	21%	6%	85	+0.1
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2024 · MLB	26	49→50	60	58→60	44	257/317/477	219	320	29	28	29%	8%	121	+2.9	246/316/437	191	304	25	34	27%	9%	112	+2.2	238/315/421	183	295	25	40	27%	9%	108	+1.8
✕Jack Suwinski 2024 · MLB	26	41→43	60	49→50	51	221/316/435	214	289	28	11	33%	11%	112	+2.2	206/288/377	171	276	21	14	32%	9%	88	+0.4	197/274/349	152	263	19	14	31%	8%	75	-0.4
●Wilyer Abreu 2024 · MLB	25	44→48	51→60	52→50	53	225/318/385	160	296	20	17	30%	12%	100	+1.3	238/313/429	191	290	23	11	25%	10%	108	+1.9	237/310/437	200	277	24	9	24%	9%	110	+1.8
●Tyler Fitzgerald 2024 · MLB	26	44→54	50→55	59→55	39	221/280/379	159	308	18	22	33%	6%	84	+0.2	237/297/402	165	322	19	19	31%	6%	96	+1.0	233/296/398	166	316	20	18	31%	6%	95	+0.6
✕Josh VanMeter 2021 · MLB	26	46→50	53→55	50	49	236/307/417	181	280	20	15	24%	8%	103	+1.6	215/307/371	156	274	17	9	26%	11%	93	+0.8	199/304/344	144	254	16	7	27%	13%	85	+0.1
✕Jonathan Van Every 2006 · AA	26	41→43	55	49→50	41	209/286/386	178	316	24	15	40%	9%	89	+0.5	225/288/396	171	342	19	11	37%	7%	91	+0.7	226/289/404	177	346	20	8	38%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Franchy Cordero 2021 · MLB	26	46→55	54→55	53→50	47	234/306/415	181	308	22	14	30%	9%	103	+1.5	228/296/377	149	326	16	12	32%	8%	90	+0.6	224/294/374	150	315	17	12	32%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Daulton Varsho 2022 · MLB	26	45→50	56→60	55→50	49	240/303/436	196	269	23	14	21%	8%	106	+1.8	227/294/419	192	265	24	15	24%	8%	99	+1.3	219/290/408	188	257	24	15	25%	8%	96	+1.0
✕Drew Robinson 2018 · MLB	26	42→43	52→55	49→50	47	214/291/386	173	292	19	12	32%	10%	91	+0.6	219/295/370	151	353	16	13	39%	9%	88	+0.4	189/271/324	135	347	14	13	45%	10%	67	-0.4
✕Josh Lowe 2024 · MLB	26	54→57	53→55	60	43	263/316/444	181	352	19	30	30%	7%	113	+2.3	236/292/396	160	315	18	27	30%	7%	93	+0.8	218/279/368	151	289	18	26	30%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	41→39	56→55	53→50	36	222/260/407	185	280	24	17	31%	4%	84	+0.1	222/284/362	140	318	16	10	33%	7%	82	-0.0	224/300/339	115	334	11	5	34%	9%	82	+0.0

Spencer Jones

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps