Spencer Jones — OGILVIE

Spencer JonesCF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 25 L/L 6'7" / 240 lbs MLB HR +8% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION295 act + 196 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .298 / .416

PA196

HR8

SB8

K%41

BB%9

BABIP350

ISO194

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 66

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT33

xwOBA

260.280

POWER66

Barrel%

265.1

Avg EV

9094.7

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

7628.5

DEFENSE49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$16M	+$16M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$16M	+$15M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+2.1	$13M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$11M	+$6M
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+1.6	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$23M		$68M	+$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	86	21	5	0	2	7	27	2	10	0	244	316	372	688	128	333	28	7	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	83	27	5	0	3	10	18	2	10	0	325	411	494	905	169	387	19	11	403	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	537	503	108	21	5	12	28	204	3	43	12	215	260	348	608	133	331	38	5	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	537	480	128	29	4	16	49	155	3	43	12	267	337	444	781	177	359	29	9	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	544	498	106	30	6	13	38	249	4	25	9	213	274	376	650	163	388	46	7	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	544	482	125	30	6	17	54	200	4	25	9	259	339	452	791	193	401	37	10	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	506	457	93	17	1	25	39	233	5	29	6	204	273	409	683	206	333	46	8	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	506	438	120	23	1	35	58	179	5	29	6	274	365	571	936	297	371	35	11	402	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	NYY	—	295	262	59	12	0	14	29	113	3	11	3	225	310	431	741	206	331	38	10	319	102	+1	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.1
YTD	25	AAA	NYY	—	295	251	66	14	0	16	38	100	3	11	3	263	364	510	874	247	368	34	13	382	150	+17	+1	+0	+1	+8	2.8
ROS	25	AAA	NYY	100%	196	175	39	8	1	8	17	80	2	8	2	222	298	416	714	194	339	41	9	310	96	-1	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.6
ROS	25	MLB	NYY	100%	197	176	40	8	1	9	17	80	2	8	2	227	303	438	740	210	341	41	9	308	94	-1	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.6
FULL	25	AAA	NYY	—	492	438	99	20	1	23	46	193	5	19	5	226	307	434	741	208	339	39	9	315	99	-1	+2	-0	+2	+14	1.7
TOT	25	AAA	NYY	—	491	437	98	20	1	22	46	193	5	19	5	224	305	425	730	201	338	39	9	315	100	-0	+2	-0	+2	+14	1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	NYY	82%	618	555	124	25	2	26	52	247	6	24	6	223	297	416	713	193	341	40	8	314	98	-1	+2	-1	+2	+18	2.0
2028	27	MLB	NYY	82%	606	543	122	25	2	25	52	235	6	24	5	225	300	416	716	192	336	39	9	315	99	-1	+3	-1	+2	+17	2.1
2029	28	MLB	NYY	82%	594	532	120	24	2	24	52	226	5	22	5	226	301	414	714	188	333	38	9	314	99	-1	+2	-2	+2	+17	1.9
2030	29	MLB	NYY	82%	582	521	116	23	2	23	51	221	5	20	5	223	298	407	705	184	331	38	9	313	97	-2	+2	-2	+2	+16	1.7
2031	30	MLB	NYY	82%	570	510	113	23	2	22	50	218	5	18	4	222	297	404	701	182	330	38	9	310	95	-3	+2	-3	+2	+16	1.5
2032	31	MLB	NYY	82%	559	500	110	22	2	21	49	215	5	15	3	220	296	398	694	178	328	38	9	306	93	-5	+2	-4	+2	+16	1.2
2033	32	MLB	NYY	82%	548	490	105	21	1	20	48	213	5	12	3	214	291	384	675	169	324	39	9	301	88	-7	+1	-4	+2	+16	0.7
2034	33	MLB	NYY	82%	472	424	88	17	1	17	41	186	4	8	2	208	284	373	656	165	319	39	9	294	83	-9	+1	-5	+2	+13	0.2
2035	34	MLB	NYY	77%	399	359	73	14	1	14	34	160	3	5	1	203	278	365	643	162	313	40	9	285	76	-11	+1	-5	+1	+11	-0.3
2027	26	MLB	NYY	82%	507	454	103	21	2	22	43	203	5	20	5	227	301	427	728	200	344	40	8	311	96	-2	+2	-1	+2	+14	1.6
2028	27	MLB	NYY	82%	497	446	102	21	2	21	43	193	5	19	4	229	304	426	730	197	339	39	9	312	97	-2	+2	-1	+2	+14	1.6
2029	28	MLB	NYY	82%	487	438	99	20	2	20	42	186	4	18	4	226	300	418	717	192	336	38	9	311	97	-2	+2	-1	+2	+14	1.5
2030	29	MLB	NYY	82%	477	428	98	20	2	20	42	181	4	16	4	229	304	425	729	196	334	38	9	310	95	-2	+2	-2	+2	+14	1.3
2031	30	MLB	NYY	82%	467	419	93	19	1	19	41	178	4	14	3	222	297	408	706	186	332	38	9	307	93	-3	+2	-2	+2	+13	1.1
2032	31	MLB	NYY	82%	458	411	90	18	1	18	40	176	4	12	3	219	295	399	694	180	330	38	9	304	91	-5	+1	-3	+2	+13	0.8
2033	32	MLB	NYY	82%	449	403	86	17	1	17	39	175	4	10	2	213	289	387	676	174	327	39	9	298	87	-7	+1	-4	+2	+13	0.5
2034	33	MLB	NYY	82%	387	347	73	14	1	14	34	152	3	7	2	210	286	378	664	167	322	39	9	292	81	-8	+1	-4	+1	+11	0.1
2035	34	MLB	NYY	77%	309	277	57	11	1	11	27	124	2	4	1	206	281	372	653	166	315	40	9	283	75	-9	+0	-4	+1	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4235	3799	841	169	14	171	368	1648	37	128	30	221	296	408	705	187	335	39	9	305	91	-42	+14	-22	+15	+120	8.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	129	26	2	26	56	253	6	20	5	221	296	407	703	185	336	39	9	305	91	-6	+2	-3	+2	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	6826	6153	1338	275	28	252	558	2714	60	263	63	217	289	394	683	177	337	40	8	300	88	-92	+27	-27	+24	+193	12.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	128	26	3	24	53	258	6	25	6	218	290	396	686	177	338	40	8	300	88	-9	+3	-3	+2	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	95	83	27	5	0	3	10	18	2	10	0	325	411	494	905	169	387	19	11	403	167	+7	+2	—	—	+3	1.2
2023	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	78	69	18	1	0	3	7	22	1	8	3	261	338	406	743	145	333	28	9	331	111	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	459	411	110	28	4	13	42	133	2	35	9	268	337	450	787	182	363	29	9	347	123	+12	+3	—	—	+13	2.9
2024	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	544	482	125	30	6	17	54	200	4	25	9	259	339	452	791	193	401	37	10	348	125	+15	+1	—	—	+15	3.3
2025	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	298	263	72	15	1	19	26	109	4	19	4	274	348	555	903	281	379	37	9	386	153	+18	+2	—	—	+8	2.9
2025	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	208	175	48	8	0	16	32	70	1	10	2	274	389	594	984	320	360	34	15	425	183	+20	+1	—	—	+6	2.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#2Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#6Tony Batistalast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,601 PA	7	3,601	162	33	244	291	445	-9	-1	10.4	10.4
	/162	664	30	6	244	291	445	-1.6	-0.2	1.9	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,309	166	130	220	291	400	+5	-3	10.7	10.2
	/162	664	26	20	220	291	400	+0.8	-0.4	1.7	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Jones (OGILVIE)	25	27→33	62→66	60	47	224/305/425	201	338	22	19	39%	9%	100	+1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesse Franklin V 2023 · AA	24	39→28	58→65	53→55	36	210/271/411	202	305	27	15	40%	6%	89	+0.9	228/294/433	205	316	27	18	35%	7%	103	+1.9	218/287/454	235	286	34	24	36%	6%	102	+1.2
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	38→40	54→55	52→50	44	205/277/385	180	283	22	14	35%	9%	83	+0.6	217/290/383	166	323	18	12	36%	9%	88	+0.9	211/290/368	157	322	17	12	37%	10%	82	+0.3
✕John Rave 2023 · AAA	25	43→44	50→55	54→55	43	218/288/365	147	310	19	18	35%	9%	82	+0.5	217/283/362	145	296	16	16	30%	8%	79	+0.3	220/292/381	161	277	17	23	26%	9%	84	+0.5
✕Zac Cook 2023 · AA	25	38	48→55	50	34	182/279/325	143	319	17	15	44%	6%	71	-0.3	191/272/319	128	339	15	17	45%	5%	66	-0.6	129/211/238	108	252	16	29	52%	3%	17	-0.9
●James Outman 2022 · AA	25	41→51	51→60	54→50	41	209/284/370	161	306	18	16	36%	8%	82	+0.5	234/319/432	198	335	24	14	35%	9%	113	+2.6	232/324/438	205	324	26	14	34%	10%	114	+2.4
✕Derek Fisher 2019 · MLB	25	46→52	52→55	51→55	43	230/299/396	166	327	20	18	34%	8%	95	+1.4	226/304/396	170	316	21	14	33%	10%	98	+1.6	204/292/379	174	278	24	13	34%	10%	85	+0.3
✕Blake Tekotte 2012 · MLB	25	44→48	53→55	53→55	44	228/293/405	176	290	21	24	29%	8%	95	+1.4	199/253/331	132	275	13	16	31%	6%	59	-1.1	189/253/305	116	256	9	10	28%	6%	49	-0.9
●Tyler Fitzgerald 2023 · AA	25	37→47	52→60	54→55	34	193/259/354	161	299	21	14	41%	6%	68	-0.5	235/293/409	174	322	21	21	32%	6%	96	+1.5	241/301/414	173	319	20	23	30%	7%	98	+1.3
●Corey Brown 2011 · AAA	25	45→49	52→60	57→50	40	227/285/398	171	319	20	14	34%	7%	89	+1.0	225/283/399	174	317	21	12	34%	7%	89	+1.0	218/278/401	183	304	23	12	35%	7%	85	+0.6
✕Cade Marlowe 2023 · AAA	26	47→52	55	57→60	41	238/304/426	188	335	23	25	35%	8%	105	+2.1	215/285/351	136	323	14	34	35%	8%	77	+0.1	213/285/330	117	316	9	42	33%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	54→60	53→50	37	208/268/384	176	312	22	17	40%	7%	79	+0.3	213/276/406	193	274	27	11	32%	7%	89	+0.9	206/270/403	197	248	29	10	30%	7%	83	+0.4
●Will Benson 2022 · AAA	24	34→44	54→55	53→55	44	182/274/361	178	284	22	15	41%	10%	76	+0.1	225/325/404	179	323	19	22	33%	12%	108	+2.3	225/329/410	185	318	19	26	32%	12%	109	+1.7
✕Franchy Cordero 2020 · MLB	25	48→54	52→55	56→50	39	230/289/403	173	351	19	16	38%	7%	92	+1.2	230/297/387	157	326	17	14	32%	8%	92	+1.2	228/298/387	159	318	18	12	32%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Jonathan Van Every 2006 · AA	26	40→44	58→55	49→50	40	208/286/402	194	323	27	15	42%	9%	92	+1.2	225/289/403	178	347	21	11	39%	7%	93	+1.3	227/291/410	183	350	21	8	39%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Niko Hulsizer 2023 · AAA	26	43→29	57→60	52→50	37	210/279/405	195	353	27	16	46%	8%	89	+1.0	196/276/341	145	310	17	11	39%	9%	72	-0.2	159/253/283	124	247	14	8	39%	10%	46	-1.6
✕Trey Cabbage 2022 · AA	25	42→43	53→60	52→55	34	199/259/366	167	354	21	7	47%	7%	71	-0.3	222/284/411	189	360	24	22	42%	7%	93	+1.3	215/279/409	194	332	24	32	41%	7%	87	+0.5
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Kyle Russell 2011 · AA	25	43→45	57→60	51→45	36	214/277/417	203	345	25	9	43%	7%	92	+1.2	200/267/363	163	309	19	7	39%	8%	73	-0.1	178/250/321	143	271	16	6	38%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	44→43	51→55	60	40	219/289/375	157	325	20	33	37%	8%	85	+0.7	199/279/367	168	305	21	33	39%	8%	80	+0.4	219/291/395	177	297	25	40	34%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Taylor Trammell 2023 · MLB	25	45→46	54→55	49→55	46	230/302/412	181	299	21	15	30%	8%	101	+1.8	215/303/387	172	292	20	19	32%	10%	95	+1.4	200/298/370	170	270	21	20	32%	11%	87	+0.5