Tsung-Che Cheng
SS Worcester Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAA/AAPIT | 517 | .225/.331/.347 | 11 | 17 | 63 | — | .203/.282/.309 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAAPIT | 397 | .209/.310/.271 | 1 | 18 | 42 | — | .197/.267/.253 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAABOS | 349 | .241/.347/.390 | 8 | 10 | 70 | — | .211/.292/.328 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBBOS | 44 | .256/.326/.282 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0.3 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBBOS | 46 | .208/.283/.295 | 1 | 2 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBBOS | 120 | .209/.284/.299 | 1 | 6 | 63 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 28 | MLBBOS | 143 | .210/.285/.301 | 2 | 6 | 64 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates Gold | — | 157 | 122 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 311 | 455 | 492 | 946 | 180 | 321 | 9 | 19 | 416 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | INTL | Colombia | — | 31 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 278 | 23 | 16 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 458 | 385 | 104 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 63 | 95 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 270 | 380 | 418 | 798 | 148 | 340 | 21 | 14 | 356 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 74 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 182 | 270 | 242 | 513 | 61 | 222 | 16 | 9 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 281 | 247 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 53 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 251 | 310 | 352 | 662 | 101 | 297 | 19 | 6 | 286 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 254 | 214 | 66 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 47 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 308 | 404 | 575 | 979 | 266 | 361 | 19 | 14 | 416 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 17 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 462 | 588 | 538 | 1.127 | 77 | 545 | 12 | 24 | 506 | 188 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 500 | 422 | 92 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 117 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 218 | 322 | 341 | 664 | 123 | 273 | 23 | 12 | 298 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 397 | 340 | 71 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 99 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 209 | 310 | 271 | 581 | 62 | 287 | 25 | 12 | 270 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 44 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 256 | 326 | 282 | 608 | 26 | 385 | 32 | 9 | 278 | 70 | -2 | -1 | +0 | +4 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 349 | 295 | 71 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 83 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 241 | 347 | 390 | 737 | 149 | 306 | 24 | 13 | 328 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 44 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 256 | 326 | 282 | 608 | 26 | 385 | 32 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -1 | -1 | +0 | +4 | +1 | 0.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates Gold | — | 157 | 133 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 263 | 364 | 414 | 777 | 150 | 264 | 13 | 12 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 458 | 405 | 90 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 43 | 130 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 222 | 305 | 333 | 638 | 111 | 306 | 28 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 281 | 252 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 65 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 234 | 280 | 313 | 593 | 79 | 275 | 23 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 254 | 229 | 58 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 253 | 316 | 463 | 779 | 210 | 304 | 24 | 8 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 17 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 429 | 529 | 500 | 1.029 | 71 | 516 | 18 | 18 | 446 | 188 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 500 | 440 | 86 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 149 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 195 | 273 | 302 | 575 | 107 | 258 | 30 | 9 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 397 | 356 | 70 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 123 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 197 | 267 | 253 | 519 | 56 | 281 | 31 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 44 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 256 | 326 | 282 | 608 | 26 | 385 | 32 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -2 | -1 | +0 | +4 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 349 | 308 | 65 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 99 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 211 | 292 | 328 | 619 | 117 | 281 | 28 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 159 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 258 | 359 | 396 | 755 | 138 | 278 | 13 | 12 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 188 | 147 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 293 | 435 | 442 | 877 | 150 | 315 | 11 | 19 | 390 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 472 | 105 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 49 | 151 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 222 | 304 | 335 | 638 | 112 | 312 | 28 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 532 | 451 | 116 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 70 | 107 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 257 | 364 | 392 | 757 | 135 | 322 | 20 | 13 | 341 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 481 | 115 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 33 | 126 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 239 | 293 | 378 | 672 | 139 | 300 | 24 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 461 | 128 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 100 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 278 | 355 | 456 | 811 | 178 | 326 | 19 | 10 | 348 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 517 | 454 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 152 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 205 | 284 | 311 | 594 | 106 | 281 | 29 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 517 | 435 | 98 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 65 | 119 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 225 | 331 | 347 | 678 | 122 | 282 | 23 | 13 | 305 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 397 | 356 | 70 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 123 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 197 | 267 | 253 | 519 | 56 | 292 | 31 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 397 | 340 | 71 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 99 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 209 | 310 | 271 | 581 | 62 | 287 | 25 | 12 | 270 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 347 | 75 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 113 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 216 | 295 | 323 | 618 | 107 | 299 | 29 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 393 | 334 | 81 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 51 | 97 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 243 | 345 | 377 | 722 | 135 | 315 | 25 | 13 | 323 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 161 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 255 | 359 | 391 | 750 | 137 | 264 | 13 | 12 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 472 | 105 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 49 | 151 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 222 | 304 | 335 | 638 | 112 | 306 | 28 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 493 | 115 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 33 | 126 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 233 | 293 | 369 | 663 | 136 | 289 | 24 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 517 | 462 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 152 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 201 | 284 | 305 | 589 | 104 | 266 | 29 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 397 | 360 | 70 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 123 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 194 | 267 | 250 | 517 | 56 | 281 | 31 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 351 | 75 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 113 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 214 | 295 | 319 | 614 | 105 | 293 | 29 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 517 | 462 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 152 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 201 | 284 | 305 | 589 | 104 | 266 | 29 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 397 | 360 | 70 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 123 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 194 | 267 | 250 | 517 | 56 | 281 | 31 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 351 | 75 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 113 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 214 | 295 | 319 | 614 | 105 | 293 | 29 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 30% | 380 | 341 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 108 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 203 | 278 | 288 | 566 | 85 | 280 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -17 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 30% | 46 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 283 | 295 | 578 | 87 | 289 | 28 | 9 | 265 | 62 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 42% | 290 | 260 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 82 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 204 | 279 | 292 | 571 | 88 | 281 | 28 | 9 | 262 | 63 | -13 | +2 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 48% | 300 | 268 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 85 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 205 | 280 | 293 | 573 | 89 | 280 | 28 | 9 | 262 | 64 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 49% | 294 | 264 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 83 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 204 | 279 | 293 | 572 | 89 | 280 | 28 | 9 | 262 | 63 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 42% | 120 | 107 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 284 | 299 | 583 | 89 | 289 | 28 | 9 | 267 | 63 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 48% | 143 | 128 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 210 | 285 | 301 | 585 | 91 | 289 | 28 | 9 | 267 | 64 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 49% | 145 | 130 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 210 | 284 | 301 | 585 | 91 | 288 | 28 | 9 | 267 | 63 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 452 | 404 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 129 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 218 | 295 | 307 | 602 | 89 | 303 | 29 | 9 | 268 | 68 | -19 | +2 | -1 | +9 | +10 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 126 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 59 | 186 | 4 | 26 | 7 | 217 | 293 | 305 | 598 | 88 | 302 | 29 | 9 | 268 | 68 | -28 | +2 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3601 | 3200 | 691 | 119 | 33 | 49 | 313 | 983 | 27 | 169 | 58 | 216 | 291 | 320 | 611 | 104 | 293 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | -47 | +5 | -2 | +15 | +23 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 124 | 21 | 6 | 9 | 56 | 177 | 5 | 31 | 10 | 215 | 290 | 318 | 608 | 104 | 290 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | -28 | +3 | -1 | +9 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 349 PAwOBA .322 → .272 (−50)K% 23.8% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.033 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.033 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.033 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .322 → .272; ISO .149 → .122; BABIP .306 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 397 PAwOBA .266 → .231 (−35)K% 24.9% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.94% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.84% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.82% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×1.048 | 22.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×1.048 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×1.048 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .266 → .231; ISO .062 → .055; BABIP .287 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 500 PAwOBA .292 → .255 (−37)K% 23.4% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.40% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.33% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.23% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .292 → .255; ISO .123 → .115; BABIP .273 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 17 PAwOBA .494 → .446 (−48)K% 11.8% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 17.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.45% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 44.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 7.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .494 → .446; ISO .077 → .067; BABIP .545 → .516. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 281 PAwOBA .284 → .253 (−31)K% 18.9% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.86% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.05% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.71% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 22.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.67% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .284 → .253; ISO .101 → .082; BABIP .297 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 254 PAwOBA .405 → .321 (−84)K% 18.5% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.50% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.78% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.56% | ÷1.016 | ×0.870 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 18.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.154 | ×0.780 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 4.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 5.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.39% | ÷1.202 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.99% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .405 → .321; ISO .266 → .220; BABIP .361 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ABradenton Marauders · 458 PAwOBA .350 → .283 (−67)K% 20.7% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.74% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.54% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.76% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 21.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 6.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 2.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.111 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .350 → .283; ISO .148 → .119; BABIP .340 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Pirates Gold · 157 PAwOBA .411 → .327 (−83)K% 8.9% → 12.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.92% | ÷1.014 | ×1.440 | — | — | 12.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.11% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 12.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.15% | ÷0.986 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 20.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.039 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.132 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.946 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.04% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 126, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .411 → .327; ISO .180 → .150; BABIP .321 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .