Donta' Williams
OF Wilmington Blue Rocks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AABowie Baysox | 408 | .194/.329/.322 | 8 | 23 | 51 | — | .167/.272/.255 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 198 | .217/.343/.277 | 0 | 10 | 50 | — | .193/.283/.245 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA/A+/ROKWSH | 157 | .181/.269/.261 | 1 | 2 | 7 | — | .139/.205/.209 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBWSH | 1 | .212/.282/.328 | 0 | 0 | 73 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 29 | MLBWSH | 33 | .211/.281/.325 | 1 | 1 | 72 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 99 | 77 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 439 | 364 | 802 | 78 | 355 | 16 | 20 | 372 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 344 | 284 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 85 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 222 | 352 | 342 | 693 | 120 | 298 | 25 | 15 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 408 | 335 | 65 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 57 | 115 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 194 | 329 | 322 | 652 | 128 | 265 | 28 | 14 | 302 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 21 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 211 | 496 | 267 | 19 | 10 | 239 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 177 | 147 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 42 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 218 | 350 | 286 | 636 | 68 | 305 | 24 | 16 | 303 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 55 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 222 | 229 | 451 | 104 | 139 | 22 | 7 | 211 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 79 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 200 | 278 | 243 | 521 | 43 | 311 | 32 | 10 | 245 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 23 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 348 | 400 | 748 | 150 | 333 | 22 | 9 | 337 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 99 | 84 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 250 | 357 | 310 | 667 | 60 | 327 | 21 | 13 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 344 | 303 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 112 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 175 | 267 | 261 | 528 | 86 | 259 | 33 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 408 | 353 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 142 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 167 | 272 | 255 | 527 | 88 | 254 | 35 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 200 | 438 | 266 | 19 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 177 | 156 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 53 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 192 | 288 | 250 | 538 | 58 | 286 | 30 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 55 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 122 | 204 | 224 | 428 | 102 | 125 | 27 | 5 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 79 | 74 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 135 | 190 | 162 | 352 | 27 | 263 | 43 | 6 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 261 | 333 | 594 | 143 | 251 | 30 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 99 | 84 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 250 | 357 | 310 | 667 | 60 | 328 | 21 | 13 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 99 | 77 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 439 | 364 | 802 | 78 | 355 | 16 | 20 | 372 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 344 | 303 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 112 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 175 | 267 | 261 | 528 | 86 | 262 | 33 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 344 | 284 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 85 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 222 | 352 | 342 | 693 | 120 | 298 | 25 | 15 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 408 | 353 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 142 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 167 | 272 | 255 | 527 | 88 | 258 | 35 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 408 | 335 | 65 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 57 | 115 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 194 | 329 | 322 | 652 | 128 | 265 | 28 | 14 | 302 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 176 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 57 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 193 | 283 | 244 | 527 | 51 | 286 | 29 | 11 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 198 | 166 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 46 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 217 | 343 | 277 | 621 | 60 | 300 | 23 | 16 | 296 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 157 | 144 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 139 | 205 | 208 | 413 | 69 | 216 | 36 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 157 | 138 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 181 | 269 | 261 | 530 | 80 | 250 | 27 | 9 | 247 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 99 | 85 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 357 | 306 | 663 | 59 | 327 | 21 | 13 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 344 | 303 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 112 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 175 | 267 | 261 | 528 | 86 | 259 | 33 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 408 | 354 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 142 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 167 | 272 | 254 | 527 | 88 | 254 | 35 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 174 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 57 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 195 | 283 | 247 | 530 | 52 | 284 | 29 | 11 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 157 | 144 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 139 | 205 | 208 | 413 | 69 | 213 | 36 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 174 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 57 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 195 | 283 | 247 | 530 | 52 | 284 | 29 | 11 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 157 | 144 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 139 | 205 | 208 | 413 | 69 | 213 | 36 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 207 | 187 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 56 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 283 | 329 | 612 | 117 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 282 | 328 | 610 | 116 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 73 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 22% | 152 | 137 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 282 | 327 | 609 | 116 | 275 | 27 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 22% | 33 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 281 | 325 | 607 | 115 | 275 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 333 | 606 | 133 | 250 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 53 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 119 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 59 | 177 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 201 | 274 | 337 | 611 | 135 | 251 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 53 | -21 | +4 | -6 | -4 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1467 | 1295 | 238 | 50 | 9 | 14 | 136 | 458 | 25 | 67 | 29 | 184 | 274 | 269 | 543 | 85 | 269 | 31 | 9 | 246 | 53 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +6 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 105 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 60 | 203 | 11 | 30 | 13 | 183 | 272 | 267 | 539 | 84 | 268 | 31 | 9 | 246 | 53 | -21 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 79 PAwOBA .240 → .169 (−71)K% 31.6% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.65% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.13% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×1.020 | ×0.968 | 20.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | ×1.020 | ×0.968 | 5.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.020 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .240 → .169; ISO .043 → .031; BABIP .311 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 55 PAwOBA .210 → .174 (−36)K% 21.8% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.82% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.64% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 3.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.22% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .210 → .174; ISO .104 → .087; BABIP .139 → .125. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 23 PAwOBA .329 → .219 (−110)K% 21.7% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.012 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 2.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 16.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.929 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.328 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .329 → .219; ISO .150 → .095; BABIP .333 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 177 PAwOBA .297 → .245 (−52)K% 23.7% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.73% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.38% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 21.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.62% | ÷1.062 | ×0.860 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.135 | ×0.950 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .297 → .245; ISO .068 → .056; BABIP .305 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 21 PAwOBA .233 → .216 (−18)K% 19.0% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 26.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .233 → .216; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .267 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 408 PAwOBA .296 → .244 (−52)K% 28.2% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.19% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.73% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.73% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.73% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .296 → .244; ISO .128 → .094; BABIP .265 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 344 PAwOBA .315 → .243 (−72)K% 24.7% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.71% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.83% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.60% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | ×1.003 | ×0.998 | 18.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | ×1.003 | ×0.998 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.01% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | ×1.003 | ×0.998 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.01% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .315 → .243; ISO .120 → .099; BABIP .298 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 99 PAwOBA .364 → .309 (−55)K% 16.2% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.16% | ÷1.027 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.19% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | — | 12.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.87% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | — | 26.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | — | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.035 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | — | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 107, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .364 → .309; ISO .078 → .067; BABIP .355 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).