Duke Ellis
CF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 279 | .230/.311/.328 | 5 | 57 | 60 | — | .228/.290/.311 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/A+/ROK2 orgs | 231 | .305/.369/.463 | 5 | 40 | 86 | — | .265/.311/.394 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAAScranton/Wilk… | 307 | .276/.342/.397 | 5 | 60 | 74 | — | .249/.299/.349 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBNYY | 16 | .221/.271/.319 | 0 | 2 | 65 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBNYY | 50 | .220/.271/.316 | 1 | 6 | 64 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 290 | 260 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 77 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 200 | 274 | 277 | 551 | 77 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 254 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 27 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 318 | 423 | 500 | 923 | 182 | 462 | 30 | 11 | 397 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 432 | 374 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 108 | 7 | 50 | 8 | 273 | 360 | 390 | 750 | 118 | 364 | 25 | 10 | 337 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 63 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 157 | 317 | 216 | 533 | 59 | 267 | 33 | 19 | 265 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 131 | 118 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 195 | 269 | 347 | 617 | 153 | 237 | 27 | 8 | 276 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 148 | 126 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 34 | 2 | 262 | 350 | 310 | 659 | 48 | 337 | 22 | 9 | 299 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 192 | 171 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 0 | 36 | 7 | 322 | 371 | 468 | 839 | 146 | 433 | 26 | 7 | 360 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 21 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 353 | 476 | 706 | 1.182 | 353 | 364 | 19 | 14 | 505 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 18 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 222 | 133 | 356 | 67 | 111 | 33 | 17 | 188 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 272 | 75 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 69 | 3 | 60 | 9 | 276 | 342 | 397 | 739 | 121 | 350 | 22 | 8 | 326 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 290 | 269 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 107 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 152 | 208 | 208 | 417 | 56 | 236 | 37 | 5 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 27 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 292 | 346 | 458 | 804 | 167 | 425 | 37 | 4 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 432 | 395 | 86 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 149 | 7 | 50 | 8 | 218 | 278 | 304 | 582 | 86 | 325 | 34 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 63 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 127 | 238 | 182 | 420 | 55 | 234 | 43 | 13 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 131 | 121 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 182 | 238 | 306 | 544 | 124 | 234 | 32 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 148 | 130 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 4 | 34 | 2 | 269 | 336 | 315 | 651 | 46 | 339 | 25 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 192 | 177 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 36 | 7 | 282 | 317 | 395 | 713 | 113 | 396 | 31 | 5 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 21 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 381 | 611 | 992 | 333 | 299 | 24 | 10 | 394 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 125 | 292 | 62 | 72 | 50 | 11 | 105 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 281 | 70 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 60 | 9 | 249 | 299 | 349 | 648 | 100 | 326 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 290 | 269 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 107 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 152 | 208 | 208 | 417 | 56 | 237 | 37 | 5 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 290 | 260 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 77 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 200 | 274 | 277 | 551 | 77 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 254 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 419 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 158 | 8 | 57 | 9 | 222 | 282 | 313 | 595 | 91 | 336 | 34 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 459 | 396 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 48 | 116 | 8 | 57 | 9 | 275 | 363 | 396 | 760 | 121 | 369 | 25 | 10 | 341 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 63 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 127 | 238 | 182 | 420 | 55 | 250 | 43 | 13 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 63 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 157 | 317 | 216 | 533 | 59 | 267 | 33 | 19 | 265 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 251 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 5 | 57 | 4 | 223 | 286 | 307 | 592 | 84 | 306 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 279 | 244 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 67 | 5 | 57 | 4 | 230 | 311 | 328 | 639 | 98 | 291 | 24 | 9 | 288 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 231 | 211 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 74 | 1 | 40 | 7 | 265 | 311 | 389 | 700 | 123 | 388 | 32 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 231 | 203 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 59 | 1 | 40 | 7 | 305 | 369 | 463 | 832 | 158 | 407 | 26 | 9 | 360 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 281 | 70 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 60 | 9 | 249 | 299 | 349 | 648 | 100 | 337 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 272 | 75 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 69 | 3 | 60 | 9 | 276 | 342 | 397 | 739 | 121 | 350 | 22 | 8 | 326 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 290 | 269 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 107 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 152 | 208 | 208 | 417 | 56 | 236 | 37 | 5 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 421 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 158 | 8 | 57 | 9 | 221 | 282 | 311 | 593 | 90 | 331 | 34 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 63 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 127 | 238 | 182 | 420 | 55 | 234 | 43 | 13 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 255 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 5 | 57 | 4 | 220 | 286 | 302 | 588 | 82 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 231 | 215 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 74 | 1 | 40 | 7 | 260 | 311 | 381 | 693 | 121 | 362 | 32 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 284 | 70 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 60 | 9 | 246 | 299 | 345 | 644 | 99 | 326 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 255 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 80 | 5 | 57 | 4 | 220 | 286 | 302 | 588 | 82 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 231 | 215 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 74 | 1 | 40 | 7 | 260 | 311 | 381 | 693 | 121 | 362 | 32 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 284 | 70 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 60 | 9 | 246 | 299 | 345 | 644 | 99 | 326 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYY | 10% | 327 | 303 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 89 | 3 | 42 | 6 | 221 | 271 | 316 | 587 | 95 | 294 | 27 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -14 | +6 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYY | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 221 | 271 | 319 | 590 | 97 | 294 | 25 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYY | 27% | 184 | 170 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 219 | 270 | 313 | 583 | 94 | 293 | 27 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -8 | +3 | -2 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYY | 27% | 50 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 220 | 271 | 316 | 587 | 96 | 293 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 64 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 50 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 213 | 260 | 319 | 579 | 106 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 59 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 611 | 130 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 182 | 0 | 78 | 13 | 213 | 260 | 319 | 579 | 106 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 59 | -28 | +10 | -8 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1968 | 1800 | 390 | 58 | 11 | 26 | 116 | 621 | 24 | 281 | 40 | 217 | 273 | 304 | 578 | 88 | 313 | 32 | 6 | 255 | 59 | -14 | +6 | -2 | +1 | +7 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 129 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 205 | 8 | 93 | 13 | 217 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 91 | 312 | 32 | 6 | 255 | 59 | -28 | +11 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 307 PAwOBA .318 → .278 (−40)K% 22.5% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×0.992 | 25.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×0.992 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×0.992 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .318 → .278; ISO .121 → .099; BABIP .350 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 192 PAwOBA .352 → .302 (−50)K% 25.5% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.52% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.29% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.33% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.003 | 28.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.48% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.003 | 9.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.944 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×1.003 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷1.070 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .352 → .302; ISO .146 → .116; BABIP .433 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 21 PAwOBA .491 → .394 (−97)K% 19.0% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.985 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.984 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 3.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.991 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 25.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.969 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 13.39% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .491 → .394; ISO .353 → .312; BABIP .364 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 18 PAwOBA .184 → .105 (−79)K% 33.3% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 47.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 9.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.043 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷2.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .184 → .105; ISO .067 → .037; BABIP .111 → .072. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 148 PAwOBA .295 → .283 (−12)K% 21.6% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.62% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.78% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.85% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 31.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.19% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .295 → .283; ISO .048 → .046; BABIP .337 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 131 PAwOBA .270 → .227 (−44)K% 26.7% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.72% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.40% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.07% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 18.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.41% | ÷1.072 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 1.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 2.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .270 → .227; ISO .153 → .117; BABIP .237 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABirmingham Barons · 63 PAwOBA .260 → .193 (−66)K% 33.3% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.938 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 12.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 17.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.961 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 93, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .260 → .193; ISO .059 → .050; BABIP .267 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 432 PAwOBA .330 → .258 (−73)K% 25.0% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.953 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.42% | ÷1.037 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.62% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.20% | ÷0.956 | ×0.870 | ×1.038 | ×0.988 | 26.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.39% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | ×1.038 | ×0.988 | 4.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.038 | ×0.988 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.955 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.40% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .330 → .258; ISO .118 → .093; BABIP .364 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).