Duke Ellis — OGILVIE

Duke EllisCF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 L/L 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION206 act + 137 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .257 / .298

PA137

HR2

SB19

K%29

BB%6

BABIP278

ISO94

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT60

Whiff%

904.3%

POWER45

Bat Spd

2969.1

EYE35

Chase%

7327.3%

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	270	41	6	0	3	14	110	4	23	4	152	205	207	412	56	241	38	5	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	260	52	8	0	4	23	77	4	23	4	200	274	277	551	77	267	27	8	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	459	417	97	13	2	7	29	170	8	57	9	233	295	324	619	91	372	37	6	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	459	396	109	18	3	8	48	116	8	57	9	275	363	396	760	121	369	25	10	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	6	1	1	0	8	31	0	3	1	109	222	164	386	55	250	49	13	180	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	63	51	8	1	1	0	12	21	0	3	1	157	317	216	533	59	267	33	19	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	279	252	56	5	2	4	16	81	5	57	4	222	282	306	588	83	306	29	6	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	279	244	56	5	2	5	24	67	5	57	4	230	311	328	639	98	291	24	9	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	3 teams	—	231	212	55	12	1	4	12	76	1	40	7	259	302	382	684	123	383	33	5	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	3 teams	—	231	203	62	15	1	5	20	59	1	40	7	305	369	463	832	158	407	26	9	360	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	NYY	—	206	188	39	5	3	3	12	59	2	37	4	207	262	314	576	106	283	29	6	256	54	-11	+6	+0	+1	+6	0.2
YTD	28	AAA	NYY	—	206	181	42	6	3	4	18	49	2	37	4	232	307	365	672	133	295	24	9	297	85	-3	+6	+0	+1	+6	0.9
ROS	28	AAA	NYY	10%	137	127	26	4	1	2	8	40	1	19	2	204	257	298	555	94	285	29	6	260	57	-7	+3	-0	+0	+4	0.1
ROS	28	MLB	NYY	10%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	154	214	154	368		286	29	7	255	53	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	AAA	NYY	—	220	201	41	5	3	3	13	63	2	39	4	204	259	303	563	100	279	29	6	256	54	-11	+6	-0	+1	+6	0.2
TOT	28	AAA	NYY	—	343	315	65	9	4	5	20	99	3	56	6	206	260	308	568	101	281	29	6	257	55	-17	+9	-0	+1	+10	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	NYY	27%	269	248	53	9	2	5	17	77	2	32	4	214	270	327	596	113	286	29	6	266	61	-12	+5	-2	+1	+8	0.0
2028	30	MLB	NYY	37%	305	279	59	10	2	5	20	87	3	33	4	211	272	315	587	104	286	29	7	268	63	-13	+5	-2	+1	+9	-0.0
2027	29	MLB	NYY	27%	74	68	14	2	1	1	5	21	1	9	1	206	270	309	579	103	288	28	7	261	58	-4	+1	-0	+0	+2	-0.0
2028	30	MLB	NYY	37%	114	105	23	4	1	2	7	33	1	12	1	219	274	333	608	114	287	29	6	263	60	-5	+2	-1	+0	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	202	186	39	6	2	3	13	58	2	23	2	210	269	312	580	102	286	29	6	262	59	-9	+4	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	125	19	6	10	42	187	6	74	6	209	267	311	578	102	284	29	6	262	59	-30	+12	-4	+2	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	2033	1860	393	60	11	30	124	672	24	264	35	211	269	304	573	92	310	33	6	255	54	-107	+39	-6	+7	+58	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	126	19	4	10	40	215	8	84	11	212	271	308	579	96	310	33	6	255	54	-34	+12	-2	+2	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	260	52	8	0	4	23	77	4	23	4	200	274	277	551	77	267	27	8	254	53	-15	+3	—	—	+8	-0.4
2022	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	27	22	7	1	0	1	3	8	1	7	1	318	423	500	923	182	462	30	11	397	162	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	432	374	102	17	3	7	45	108	7	50	8	273	360	390	750	118	364	25	10	337	116	+8	+7	—	—	+12	2.7
2023	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	63	51	8	1	1	0	12	21	0	3	1	157	317	216	533	59	267	33	19	265	61	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	131	118	23	2	2	4	11	35	1	23	2	195	269	347	617	153	237	27	8	276	69	-5	+4	—	—	+4	0.3
2024	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	148	126	33	3	0	1	13	32	4	34	2	262	350	310	659	48	337	22	9	299	87	-2	+6	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	192	171	55	14	1	3	14	49	0	36	7	322	371	468	839	146	433	26	7	360	134	+7	+4	—	—	+5	1.7
2025	27	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	21	17	6	0	0	2	3	4	1	1	0	353	476	706	1.182	353	364	19	14	505	245	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	27	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	18	15	1	1	0	0	3	6	0	3	0	67	222	133	356	67	111	33	17	188	2	-2	+1	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	211	4	24	214	268	323	+1	-2	0.1	0.1
	/162	664	12	74	214	268	323	+2.4	-5.6	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Duke Ellis (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	60	35	206/260/308	101	281	5	56	29%	6%	55	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Darren Ford 2014 · MLB	28	47→53	39→45	58→65	41	223/269/309	86	300	7	41	27%	6%	59	-1.1	224/273/305	81	298	7	37	26%	6%	59	-1.1	223/273/294	71	292	6	37	24%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Forrest Wall 2023 · AAA	27	46→56	38→45	65→70	38	215/271/301	86	323	5	47	33%	6%	58	-1.2	252/317/361	109	350	9	46	28%	8%	92	+1.2	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2021 · AA	26	45→52	42→45	58→65	40	218/275/315	97	285	10	40	26%	5%	64	-0.8	211/265/329	118	288	12	34	30%	5%	63	-0.8	197/253/317	120	268	14	44	31%	4%	53	-0.7
✕Roemon Fields 2019 · AAA	28	49→55	35→30	58→60	42	228/275/290	62	302	3	38	24%	5%	56	-1.3	223/277/301	78	285	5	24	22%	6%	60	-1.0	214/273/273	59	266	3	24	20%	7%	49	-1.0
✕Quintin Berry 2013 · MLB	28	51→61	39→40	63→65	46	237/308/322	86	328	6	38	28%	8%	79	+0.3	225/295/298	73	303	5	34	25%	8%	67	-0.5	229/297/285	56	312	3	37	25%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Rich Thompson 2006 · AAA	27	48→58	39→45	67→65	45	230/285/315	85	277	6	43	19%	6%	67	-0.5	246/306/342	96	301	5	28	19%	6%	82	+0.5	265/314/370	105	322	4	44	18%	4%	90	+0.8
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB	27	43→35	41→40	63→65	39	199/265/300	100	330	9	43	40%	8%	55	-1.4	202/268/320	118	330	12	27	39%	7%	63	-0.9	178/258/290	112	301	10	36	41%	8%	48	-0.8
✕Jeff Kobernus 2015 · MLB	27	54→62	37→40	60→65	45	253/301/327	74	315	5	40	21%	6%	76	+0.1	218/267/285	67	288	5	23	25%	6%	51	-1.7	200/245/229	28	272	1	21	25%	5%	25	-1.2
✕Jordan Schafer 2014 · MLB	27	47→54	39→50	59→65	49	222/295/311	89	295	7	36	26%	9%	70	-0.3	226/292/317	91	297	7	37	24%	8%	70	-0.3	229/300/293	64	290	2	75	20%	9%	63	-0.3
✕Mel Stocker 2009 · AAA	28	52	36→40	66→65	45	244/294/319	75	298	2	41	18%	5%	71	-0.3	228/287/317	89	277	5	33	18%	6%	69	-0.4	217/283/305	88	262	3	44	17%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Dwaine Bacon 2006 · AAA	27	49→50	38→40	63→65	44	223/298/311	87	340	4	39	33%	9%	72	-0.2	211/273/311	100	293	7	32	29%	7%	61	-1.0	191/250/287	96	255	7	40	27%	7%	41	-1.5
✕Zach Davis 2022 · AAA	28	46→52	37→30	58→65	40	218/274/289	71	313	5	34	31%	6%	56	-1.3	217/286/288	71	329	5	41	33%	7%	61	-1.0	222/300/261	39	341	0	78	31%	8%	59	-0.4
✕Jeremias Pineda 2019 · AAA	28	51→57	35→30	62→65	40	226/284/289	63	351	2	34	34%	7%	59	-1.1	250/304/334	84	338	6	28	26%	6%	79	+0.3	282/333/341	60	377	4	42	25%	6%	88	+0.4
✕Justin Christian 2008 · AAA	28	51→57	41→45	65	44	245/287/347	102	289	7	40	18%	5%	76	+0.0	249/289/354	105	288	8	33	16%	5%	79	+0.3	261/315/390	129	290	11	30	14%	6%	96	+1.2
✕Rico Noel 2016 · AAA	27	46→55	35→30	62→65	43	215/277/270	55	300	3	44	28%	7%	52	-1.6	201/247/283	82	290	6	29	31%	5%	43	-2.2	181/216/251	70	266	5	29	33%	3%	17	-1.0
✕J.D. Orr 2023 · AA	26	49	36→30	61→65	49	226/302/292	66	307	2	41	25%	9%	69	-0.4	209/289/281	72	301	4	29	29%	9%	61	-1.0	155/259/179	23	242	0	34	32%	10%	21	-1.1
✕Jovanny Rosario 2012 · AAA	27	47→51	40	60	42	228/266/319	91	274	7	34	20%	4%	59	-1.1	243/285/338	95	322	6	28	25%	5%	72	-0.2	268/309/357	90	383	2	39	29%	5%	83	+0.2
✕James Jones 2016 · MLB	27	51→53	38→45	65→60	45	241/288/335	94	301	4	33	21%	6%	72	-0.2	224/276/324	100	320	7	22	30%	6%	65	-0.7	207/254/287	81	326	6	20	36%	5%	42	-1.2
✕Terrance Gore 2019 · AAA	28	41→43	35→30	63→70	40	196/245/248	52	269	3	41	27%	5%	32	-3.0	206/276/288	82	309	5	43	32%	8%	57	-1.2	204/300/284	80	310	0	73	30%	10%	63	-0.2
✕Eric Reed 2008 · MLB	27	49→51	37→40	63→60	38	233/268/318	84	310	3	33	25%	4%	59	-1.1	221/265/306	85	286	6	22	23%	5%	56	-1.3	197/241/216	19	252	0	19	21%	5%	18	-1.0