Duke Ellis — OGILVIE

Duke EllisCF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 L/L 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION290 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP303

ISO96

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT60

Whiff%

904.3%

POWER45

Bat Spd

2969.1

EYE35

Chase%

7327.3%

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	260	52	8	0	4	23	77	4	23	4	200	274	277	551	77	267	27	8	254	58	-14	+3	—	—	+6	-0.5
2022	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	27	22	7	1	0	1	3	8	1	7	1	318	423	500	923	182	462	30	11	397	155	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	432	374	102	17	3	7	45	108	7	50	8	273	360	390	750	118	364	25	10	337	114	+7	+7	—	—	+9	2.4
2023	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	63	51	8	1	1	0	12	21	0	3	1	157	317	216	533	59	267	33	19	265	66	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	131	118	23	2	2	4	11	35	1	23	2	195	269	347	617	153	237	27	8	276	73	-4	+4	—	—	+3	0.2
2024	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	148	126	33	3	0	1	13	32	4	34	2	262	350	310	659	48	337	22	9	299	88	-2	+6	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	192	171	55	14	1	3	14	49	0	36	7	322	371	468	839	146	433	26	7	360	130	+7	+4	—	—	+4	1.6
2025	27	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	21	17	6	0	0	2	3	4	1	1	0	353	476	706	1.182	353	364	19	14	505	228	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2025	27	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	18	15	1	1	0	0	3	6	0	3	0	67	222	133	356	67	111	33	17	188	13	-2	+1	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	269	42	6	0	3	15	107	4	23	4	156	212	212	424	56	237	37	5	191	15	-29	+3	—	—	+6	-2.0
2022	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	27	24	7	1	0	1	1	10	1	7	1	292	346	458	804	167	424	37	4	337	114	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	432	392	90	13	2	6	29	152	7	50	8	230	294	319	613	89	348	35	7	268	68	-17	+7	—	—	+9	-0.1
2023	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	7	1	1	0	8	27	0	3	1	127	238	182	420	55	238	43	13	196	19	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2024	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	131	122	21	2	2	3	7	42	1	23	2	172	223	295	518	123	228	32	5	222	36	-10	+4	—	—	+3	-0.3
2024	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	148	130	34	3	0	1	9	37	4	34	2	262	329	308	636	46	334	25	6	280	76	-4	+6	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	192	177	50	12	1	2	9	60	0	36	7	282	317	395	713	113	394	31	5	301	90	-2	+4	—	—	+4	0.6
2025	27	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	21	18	6	0	0	2	2	5	1	1	0	333	429	667	1.095	333	328	24	10	404	160	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	27	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	18	16	1	1	0	0	2	9	0	3	0	62	167	125	292	62	77	50	11	111	-39	-3	+1	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	269	42	6	0	3	15	107	4	23	4	156	212	212	424	56	244	37	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	260	52	8	0	4	23	77	4	23	4	200	274	277	551	77	267	27	8	254	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	459	416	96	14	2	6	30	162	8	57	9	231	295	317	612	87	360	35	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	459	396	109	18	3	8	48	116	8	57	9	275	363	396	760	121	369	25	10	341	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	7	1	1	0	8	27	0	3	1	127	238	182	420	55	250	43	13	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	—	63	51	8	1	1	0	12	21	0	3	1	157	317	216	533	59	267	33	19	265	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	279	252	55	5	2	4	16	80	5	57	4	218	278	302	580	83	298	29	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	279	244	56	5	2	5	24	67	5	57	4	230	311	328	639	98	291	24	9	288	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	231	211	56	12	1	4	13	74	1	40	7	265	311	389	700	123	388	32	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	231	203	62	15	1	5	20	59	1	40	7	305	369	463	832	158	407	26	9	360	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	290	269	42	6	0	3	15	107	4	23	4	156	212	212	424	56	237	37	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	459	418	96	14	2	6	30	162	8	57	9	230	295	316	611	86	352	35	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	7	1	1	0	8	27	0	3	1	127	238	182	420	55	238	43	13	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	279	256	55	5	2	4	16	80	5	57	4	215	278	297	575	82	284	29	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	231	215	56	12	1	4	13	74	1	40	7	260	311	381	693	121	363	32	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	63	55	7	1	1	0	8	27	0	3	1	127	238	182	420	55	238	43	13	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	279	256	55	5	2	4	16	80	5	57	4	215	278	297	575	82	284	29	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	231	215	56	12	1	4	13	74	1	40	7	260	311	381	693	121	363	32	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	NYY	—	290	265	63	10	3	4	16	81	3	52	9	238	289	343	632	106	324	28	6	270	69	-11	+7	+0	+1	+6	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA RAW	NYY	—	290	256	67	12	3	5	24	68	3	52	9	262	331	391	722	129	335	23	8	318	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	28	AAA MLE	NYY	10%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	111	200	111	311		302	30	10	268	68	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						303	0	0	264	68	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	NYY	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	264	69	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	28	AAA MLE	NYY	—	300	274	64	10	3	4	17	84	3	53	9	234	286	336	621	102	319	28	6	270	69	-11	+7	-0	+1	+6	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYY	27%	269	248	56	10	2	4	16	76	3	33	5	226	281	331	612	105	299	28	6	270	69	-10	+5	-2	+1	+6	-0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYY	37%	305	280	63	11	2	5	19	85	3	34	5	225	281	332	614	107	298	28	6	272	70	-11	+5	-2	+1	+7	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYY	27%	74	68	16	3	1	1	5	21	1	9	1	235	297	353	650	118	301	28	7	266	69	-3	+1	-0	+0	+2	0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYY	37%	114	105	24	4	1	2	7	32	1	13	2	229	283	343	626	114	300	28	6	268	70	-4	+2	-1	+0	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	189	174	40	7	2	3	12	53	2	22	3	230	287	345	632	115	311	28	6	267	60	-7	+3	-1	+1	+4	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	137	24	7	10	41	182	7	76	10	229	286	343	629	114	311	28	6	267	60	-23	+11	-5	+2	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1906	1740	376	59	10	26	118	614	24	248	35	216	275	306	582	90	315	32	6	257	60	-21	+10	-4	+2	+13	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	128	20	3	9	40	209	8	85	12	216	274	305	579	89	315	32	6	257	60	-23	+11	-4	+2	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	211	3	24	222	275	324	+1	-2	0.2	0.2
/162	664	10	77	+2.4	-5.6	0.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Duke Ellis (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	60	35	220/273/319	99	302	3	34	29%	6%	68	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2019 · MLB	28	51→61	39→40	67→70	48	240/299/331	91	306	5	44	22%	8%	79	-0.2	221/281/315	94	297	6	34	26%	8%	69	-0.9	162/214/241	78	260	4	47	37%	6%	25	-0.9
✕Darren Ford 2014 · MLB	28	46→53	39→45	58→65	42	222/271/304	82	294	6	41	26%	6%	63	-1.4	223/274/303	80	295	7	37	25%	6%	63	-1.3	222/273/292	70	290	6	37	24%	6%	58	-1.2
✕Tony Campana 2014 · MLB	28	53→63	35→30	66→70	44	248/297/307	59	330	3	50	25%	7%	72	-0.7	230/274/288	58	295	2	26	21%	5%	59	-1.6	239/275/296	57	294	1	24	18%	4%	58	-1.2
✕Jarrod Dyson 2012 · MLB	27	53→58	37→45	67→70	47	248/299/322	74	307	4	47	20%	6%	77	-0.3	249/308/327	78	306	3	54	18%	8%	82	-0.0	256/324/360	104	294	5	53	14%	7%	92	+0.4
✕Tyler Graham 2012 · AAA	28	55→54	37→40	63→65	42	259/306/332	73	327	4	48	22%	5%	82	-0.0	232/289/309	77	293	5	35	21%	6%	71	-0.8	218/269/275	57	269	3	33	19%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	45→55	40	57→60	50	216/290/307	92	275	8	35	23%	9%	72	-0.7	227/296/306	79	302	6	35	25%	8%	73	-0.6	227/298/287	61	307	4	40	25%	8%	67	-0.5
✕Todd Donovan 2007 · AAA	28	51→54	39→40	63→65	46	241/296/328	87	293	6	42	19%	6%	78	-0.3	238/303/315	77	300	4	37	20%	8%	78	-0.3	237/317/305	68	308	2	42	21%	10%	78	-0.2
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB	27	45→40	40	63→65	41	208/274/304	96	333	7	43	37%	8%	65	-1.2	205/271/319	114	334	10	27	39%	7%	67	-1.1	184/262/291	107	315	8	36	40%	8%	55	-0.9
✕Roemon Fields 2019 · AAA	28	49→56	35→30	58→60	42	229/277/291	62	300	3	38	24%	6%	61	-1.5	223/278/299	76	284	5	24	22%	6%	64	-1.3	215/271/269	54	266	3	24	19%	7%	53	-1.2
✕Quintin Berry 2013 · MLB	28	52→61	38→40	63→65	47	240/310/323	83	327	5	38	26%	8%	82	-0.0	223/295/293	70	302	4	34	25%	8%	70	-0.9	229/297/280	52	311	3	37	25%	8%	65	-0.9
✕Nyjer Morgan 2008 · MLB	28	57→64	36→45	63→65	44	268/319/342	74	328	3	42	18%	5%	89	+0.5	274/328/350	76	329	3	43	16%	6%	94	+0.9	277/339/360	82	328	3	35	15%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Mallex Smith 2021 · MLB	28	51→61	41→45	65	48	241/308/350	109	306	7	40	22%	8%	87	+0.4	219/293/320	101	303	9	31	29%	9%	76	-0.4	199/284/284	85	297	10	40	33%	10%	61	-0.3
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2015 · MLB	28	53→63	39→45	63→60	46	254/303/347	93	309	6	41	20%	6%	84	+0.2	253/313/355	102	314	10	22	21%	7%	91	+0.6	256/323/358	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Willy Taveras 2010 · MLB	28	53→63	35→45	63→65	47	248/294/304	56	286	3	46	14%	6%	71	-0.8	227/267/315	88	263	8	25	16%	5%	63	-1.3	257/311/367	110	314	9	27	20%	5%	90	+0.4
✕Jerry Owens 2009 · MLB	28	54→64	35→30	57→65	48	254/304/310	56	303	3	39	17%	6%	76	-0.4	252/306/328	76	299	5	26	16%	7%	81	-0.1	282/332/344	62	328	2	24	14%	7%	92	+0.4
✕Rich Thompson 2006 · AAA	27	49→59	38→40	67→65	45	231/286/314	83	276	5	43	18%	6%	71	-0.8	246/306/340	94	301	4	28	18%	6%	84	+0.2	263/313/360	96	321	4	44	18%	5%	88	+0.4
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2021 · AA	26	45→52	40→45	58→65	41	220/277/311	91	282	9	40	25%	5%	67	-1.1	208/264/318	110	283	11	34	30%	5%	64	-1.3	192/250/301	108	262	12	44	30%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Eury Pérez 2018 · MLB	28	56→64	38→40	63→65	42	266/308/350	84	330	4	41	20%	4%	86	+0.3	258/299/355	97	312	6	23	18%	5%	84	+0.2	275/309/363	88	325	3	17	16%	4%	86	+0.1
✕Darin Mastroianni 2013 · MLB	27	52→59	38→40	63→60	49	243/303/329	86	302	5	37	20%	8%	80	-0.1	223/279/299	76	286	5	28	22%	6%	65	-1.2	215/266/278	63	275	3	25	22%	6%	52	-1.3
●Michael Bourn 2009 · MLB	26	50→60	39→45	66→65	48	237/296/323	86	295	7	43	21%	8%	76	-0.4	268/333/360	92	339	4	47	20%	9%	99	+1.2	276/338/379	103	351	5	38	21%	8%	102	+1.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps