Duke EllisCF
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 28
L/L
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
HR +8%BB +8%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.2 · 2026
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .273 / .331
PA223
HR4
SB19
K%30
BB%7
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
60→60
PWR
45→45
SPD
60→60
EYE
41↘35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-2M | $-5M | -$3M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 290 | 269 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 106 | 4 | 23 | 4 | .156 | .212 | .212 | .424 | .056 | .242 | 37 | 5 | .193 | 6 | -31 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -1.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | 2 teams | 459 | 419 | 94 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 160 | 8 | 57 | 9 | .224 | .284 | .315 | .599 | .091 | .343 | 35 | 6 | .264 | 60 | -21 | +8 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 63 | 55 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .109 | .222 | .164 | .386 | .055 | .231 | 46 | 13 | .186 | 1 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | 2 teams | 279 | 251 | 55 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 81 | 5 | 57 | 4 | .219 | .282 | .299 | .581 | .080 | .302 | 29 | 6 | .260 | 57 | -13 | +10 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | 3 teams | 231 | 211 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 74 | 1 | 40 | 7 | .265 | .311 | .389 | .700 | .123 | .388 | 32 | 6 | .302 | 89 | -3 | +5 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 223 | 204 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 67 | 2 | 19 | 3 | .216 | .276 | .324 | .600 | .108 | .297 | 30 | 7 | .273 | 67 | -8 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 20% | NYY | 263 | 241 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 78 | 2 | 22 | 3 | .216 | .276 | .328 | .604 | .112 | .296 | 30 | 7 | .276 | 70 | -9 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 33% | NYY | 301 | 274 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 89 | 3 | 24 | 3 | .219 | .282 | .339 | .621 | .120 | .295 | 30 | 7 | .277 | 70 | -10 | +4 | -2 | +1 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 43% | NYY | 299 | 274 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 88 | 2 | 23 | 3 | .219 | .279 | .339 | .619 | .120 | .294 | 29 | 7 | .276 | 69 | -10 | +3 | -3 | +1 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 52% | NYY | 288 | 264 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 86 | 2 | 21 | 2 | .212 | .273 | .326 | .598 | .114 | .293 | 30 | 7 | .272 | 67 | -11 | +3 | -3 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 64% | NYY | 263 | 241 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 80 | 2 | 18 | 2 | .212 | .272 | .320 | .592 | .108 | .292 | 30 | 7 | .267 | 62 | -11 | +3 | -4 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 73% | NYY | 223 | 204 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 70 | 2 | 15 | 1 | .206 | .267 | .309 | .576 | .103 | .291 | 31 | 7 | .261 | 58 | -11 | +3 | -5 | +1 | +6 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3182 | 2907 | 618 | 102 | 15 | 54 | 208 | 1008 | 33 | 322 | 42 | .213 | .273 | .314 | .587 | .101 | .303 | 32 | 7 | .263 | 59 | -146 | +48 | -19 | +11 | +90 | -1.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 594 | 126 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 206 | 7 | 66 | 9 | .212 | .272 | .313 | .585 | .101 | .303 | 32 | 6 | .263 | 59 | -30 | +10 | -4 | +2 | +18 | -0.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 290 | 260 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 77 | 4 | 23 | 4 | .200 | .274 | .277 | .551 | .077 | .267 | 27 | 8 | .254 | 53 | -15 | +3 | — | — | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 27 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 1 | .318 | .423 | .500 | .923 | .182 | .462 | 30 | 11 | .397 | 162 | +2 | +1 | — | — | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 432 | 374 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 108 | 7 | 50 | 8 | .273 | .360 | .390 | .750 | .118 | .364 | 25 | 10 | .337 | 116 | +8 | +7 | — | — | +12 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 63 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .157 | .317 | .216 | .533 | .059 | .267 | 33 | 19 | .265 | 61 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 131 | 118 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 2 | .195 | .269 | .347 | .617 | .153 | .237 | 27 | 8 | .276 | 69 | -5 | +4 | — | — | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 148 | 126 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 34 | 2 | .262 | .350 | .310 | .659 | .048 | .337 | 22 | 9 | .299 | 87 | -2 | +6 | — | — | +4 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 192 | 171 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 0 | 36 | 7 | .322 | .371 | .468 | .839 | .146 | .433 | 26 | 7 | .360 | 134 | +7 | +4 | — | — | +5 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 21 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .353 | .476 | .706 | 1.182 | .353 | .364 | 19 | 14 | .505 | 245 | +3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 18 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .067 | .222 | .133 | .356 | .067 | .111 | 33 | 17 | .188 | 2 | -2 | +1 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Duke Ellis (OGILVIE) | 28 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 35 | .215/.273/.331 | .115 | .297 | 4 | 19 | 30% | 7% | 67 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Darren Ford 2014 · MLB |
28 | 46→53 | 39→45 | 58→65 | 42 | .222/.271/.307 | .084 | .297 | 7 | 41 | 27% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .223/.273/.303 | .080 | .296 | 7 | 37 | 26% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .221/.273/.290 | .069 | .291 | 6 | 37 | 25% | 6% | 52 | -1.1 |
|
✕Billy Hamilton 2019 · MLB |
28 | 51→60 | 38→40 | 66→70 | 48 | .241/.299/.324 | .083 | .306 | 5 | 47 | 22% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .222/.283/.308 | .086 | .298 | 5 | 35 | 25% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .159/.211/.231 | .072 | .255 | 4 | 47 | 37% | 6% | 12 | -1.0 |
|
✕Tony Campana 2014 · MLB |
28 | 53→63 | 35→30 | 66→70 | 44 | .248/.296/.306 | .058 | .328 | 3 | 51 | 24% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .231/.275/.289 | .058 | .298 | 2 | 28 | 22% | 5% | 55 | -1.4 | .237/.273/.293 | .056 | .292 | 1 | 24 | 18% | 4% | 51 | -1.2 |
|
✕Tyler Graham 2012 · AAA |
28 | 55→54 | 38→40 | 62→65 | 42 | .258/.303/.333 | .076 | .326 | 5 | 46 | 22% | 5% | 79 | +0.3 | .235/.290/.311 | .076 | .298 | 5 | 36 | 21% | 5% | 68 | -0.5 | .221/.272/.280 | .059 | .274 | 4 | 33 | 20% | 5% | 48 | -0.9 |
|
✕Todd Donovan 2007 · AAA |
28 | 50→53 | 40 | 63→65 | 45 | .241/.296/.334 | .093 | .295 | 7 | 42 | 20% | 6% | 76 | +0.1 | .235/.300/.316 | .081 | .299 | 5 | 38 | 21% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .234/.315/.302 | .068 | .308 | 3 | 42 | 23% | 10% | 74 | -0.1 |
|
✕Jarrod Dyson 2012 · MLB |
27 | 52→57 | 37→40 | 66→70 | 46 | .246/.296/.319 | .073 | .308 | 3 | 46 | 21% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .247/.306/.324 | .077 | .304 | 3 | 53 | 18% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .246/.315/.340 | .094 | .283 | 5 | 53 | 14% | 7% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Mallex Smith 2021 · MLB |
28 | 51→61 | 41→45 | 65 | 48 | .242/.310/.353 | .111 | .305 | 6 | 40 | 22% | 8% | 87 | +0.8 | .218/.292/.322 | .104 | .301 | 10 | 32 | 28% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .200/.285/.294 | .094 | .295 | 11 | 40 | 33% | 10% | 59 | -0.2 |
|
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB |
28 | 44→54 | 41→45 | 57→60 | 50 | .214/.290/.309 | .095 | .272 | 8 | 34 | 23% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .228/.296/.310 | .082 | .303 | 6 | 36 | 25% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .228/.300/.289 | .061 | .309 | 4 | 40 | 25% | 8% | 63 | -0.4 |
|
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2021 · AA |
26 | 46→49 | 41→45 | 59→65 | 41 | .224/.281/.320 | .096 | .289 | 10 | 41 | 25% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .211/.266/.327 | .116 | .288 | 12 | 34 | 30% | 5% | 63 | -0.8 | .196/.253/.315 | .120 | .265 | 14 | 44 | 31% | 5% | 52 | -0.7 |
|
✕Roman Quinn 2021 · MLB |
28 | 50→56 | 46→45 | 66→65 | 43 | .243/.300/.376 | .132 | .327 | 12 | 37 | 28% | 7% | 89 | +1.0 | .218/.303/.345 | .127 | .332 | 11 | 27 | 35% | 9% | 84 | +0.6 | .176/.284/.289 | .112 | .321 | 9 | 34 | 42% | 11% | 60 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jerry Owens 2009 · MLB |
28 | 54→64 | 36→40 | 58→65 | 48 | .254/.303/.314 | .060 | .301 | 4 | 39 | 17% | 6% | 73 | -0.1 | .253/.305/.325 | .072 | .300 | 5 | 27 | 16% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .281/.331/.343 | .062 | .327 | 2 | 24 | 14% | 7% | 90 | +0.5 |
|
●Michael Bourn 2011 · MLB |
28 | 56→62 | 38→45 | 66→65 | 52 | .261/.328/.346 | .085 | .324 | 4 | 47 | 20% | 9% | 93 | +1.3 | .272/.336/.368 | .096 | .345 | 5 | 40 | 20% | 9% | 102 | +1.8 | .271/.334/.368 | .097 | .346 | 5 | 38 | 21% | 8% | 96 | +1.6 |
|
✕Quintin Berry 2013 · MLB |
28 | 50→58 | 38→40 | 62→65 | 46 | .233/.303/.314 | .081 | .319 | 6 | 37 | 27% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .223/.295/.294 | .071 | .303 | 5 | 34 | 26% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .228/.296/.280 | .052 | .311 | 3 | 37 | 26% | 8% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB |
27 | 45→38 | 40 | 63→65 | 40 | .205/.271/.299 | .095 | .337 | 7 | 43 | 39% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .198/.266/.309 | .111 | .336 | 10 | 29 | 41% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .172/.253/.274 | .102 | .308 | 8 | 36 | 43% | 8% | 41 | -1.0 |
|
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2015 · MLB |
28 | 53→63 | 40→45 | 63→60 | 45 | .255/.302/.355 | .100 | .310 | 7 | 39 | 20% | 6% | 84 | +0.6 | .254/.312/.354 | .100 | .315 | 10 | 24 | 21% | 7% | 89 | +0.9 | .257/.324/.357 | .100 | .321 | 11 | 15 | 22% | 8% | 91 | +0.6 |
|
✕Drew Avans 2023 · AAA |
27 | 49→53 | 42→45 | 64→60 | 45 | .230/.302/.347 | .117 | .332 | 8 | 33 | 31% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .222/.293/.323 | .101 | .317 | 8 | 28 | 30% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 | .223/.294/.314 | .091 | .311 | 8 | 30 | 29% | 9% | 68 | -0.5 |
|
✕Roemon Fields 2019 · AAA |
28 | 49→57 | 36→30 | 58→60 | 42 | .228/.275/.291 | .062 | .298 | 3 | 37 | 24% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .223/.277/.298 | .075 | .284 | 5 | 25 | 22% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .216/.273/.274 | .058 | .267 | 3 | 24 | 19% | 7% | 49 | -1.0 |
|
✕Everth Cabrera 2015 · MLB |
28 | 53→59 | 38→40 | 60→65 | 49 | .250/.309/.330 | .080 | .312 | 5 | 39 | 21% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .221/.274/.289 | .068 | .277 | 5 | 22 | 21% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .193/.245/.222 | .029 | .248 | 1 | 22 | 21% | 6% | 23 | -1.3 |
|
●Rajai Davis 2009 · MLB |
28 | 53→63 | 40→50 | 66→70 | 47 | .255/.304/.353 | .097 | .295 | 7 | 53 | 16% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .270/.317/.378 | .108 | .317 | 6 | 51 | 16% | 6% | 96 | +1.5 | .262/.309/.394 | .132 | .306 | 11 | 49 | 18% | 5% | 94 | +0.9 |
|
●Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA |
30 | 49→52 | 48→50 | 62→70 | 41 | .242/.296/.383 | .141 | .312 | 16 | 41 | 27% | 6% | 90 | +1.0 | .254/.315/.388 | .134 | .326 | 14 | 69 | 25% | 6% | 99 | +1.7 | .253/.319/.379 | .126 | .320 | 13 | 95 | 24% | 6% | 96 | +0.6 |