Tommy Troy — OGILVIE

Tommy TroySS Reno Aces

Age 24 R/R 5'9" / 197 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION339 act + 226 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .312 / .360

PA226

HR4

SB11

K%26

BB%8

BABIP317

ISO118

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT47

xwOBA

570.317

POWER48

Barrel%

6210.0

Avg EV

1084.8

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9030.1

DEFENSE46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$18M	+$17M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$18M	+$17M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.6	$17M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+2.4	$14M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+2.1	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$29M		$80M	+$61M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A+	2 teams	—	115	103	22	4	1	3	9	40	1	9	0	214	283	359	642	146	306	35	8	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	2 teams	—	115	96	26	5	1	4	16	28	1	9	0	271	381	469	849	198	333	24	14	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	422	385	62	13	2	7	22	144	9	20	6	161	224	260	483	99	229	34	5	211	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	422	366	91	23	3	8	41	98	9	20	6	249	339	393	732	145	312	23	10	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	2 teams	—	581	518	118	20	4	9	48	130	10	24	5	228	306	334	640	106	285	22	8	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	2 teams	—	581	499	144	28	4	15	67	98	10	24	5	289	384	451	835	162	332	17	12	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AAA	ARI	—	339	305	73	11	3	6	31	96	1	7	1	239	312	354	666	115	328	28	9	298	86	-5	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.9
YTD	24	AAA	ARI	—	339	297	81	13	4	7	39	81	1	7	1	273	359	414	773	141	352	24	12	346	123	+9	+1	+0	+4	+10	2.3
ROS	24	AAA	ARI	100%	226	203	49	8	2	4	19	58	2	11	2	241	312	360	672	118	314	26	8	301	88	-3	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.7
ROS	24	MLB	ARI	100%	226	203	50	8	2	4	19	58	2	11	2	246	317	365	681	118	316	26	8	296	85	-4	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.6
FULL	24	AAA	ARI	—	565	508	123	19	5	10	50	154	3	18	3	242	314	358	672	116	327	27	9	298	86	-9	+2	-1	+6	+16	1.5
TOT	24	AAA	ARI	—	565	508	122	19	5	10	50	154	3	18	3	240	312	356	668	116	324	27	9	299	87	-8	+2	-1	+6	+16	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	ARI	92%	646	579	139	22	5	12	56	164	6	31	4	240	314	358	671	117	312	25	9	303	90	-7	+5	-2	+7	+18	2.1
2028	26	MLB	ARI	92%	633	567	138	22	5	14	55	159	6	30	4	243	317	374	691	131	311	25	9	308	94	-4	+4	-2	+7	+18	2.3
2029	27	MLB	ARI	92%	621	555	136	22	5	14	55	156	6	29	4	245	320	378	698	133	310	25	9	309	95	-4	+4	-2	+7	+18	2.3
2030	28	MLB	ARI	92%	608	543	130	21	4	13	54	153	6	27	4	239	315	365	680	125	309	25	9	309	94	-4	+4	-3	+7	+17	2.1
2031	29	MLB	ARI	92%	596	533	128	21	4	13	53	151	5	25	4	240	315	368	682	128	308	25	9	307	93	-5	+3	-4	+6	+17	1.9
2032	30	MLB	ARI	92%	584	521	124	20	4	12	53	150	5	22	3	238	314	361	675	123	307	26	9	304	91	-6	+3	-4	+6	+17	1.6
2033	31	MLB	ARI	92%	572	511	121	19	4	12	51	148	5	19	3	237	312	360	672	123	305	26	9	300	88	-8	+3	-5	+6	+16	1.3
2034	32	MLB	ARI	92%	561	501	116	18	4	11	50	148	5	15	2	232	308	349	657	118	302	26	9	295	84	-10	+2	-6	+6	+16	0.9
2035	33	MLB	ARI	92%	484	434	98	15	3	9	43	130	4	10	1	226	301	336	638	111	299	27	9	289	79	-11	+2	-6	+5	+14	0.3
2036	34	MLB	ARI	88%	409	367	81	12	3	7	36	112	3	6	1	221	296	327	623	106	294	27	9	281	73	-12	+1	-6	+4	+12	-0.2
2037	35	MLB	ARI	83%	346	310	65	9	2	5	30	98	3	4	1	210	286	300	586	90	288	28	9	272	66	-13	+0	-7	+4	+10	-0.6
2027	25	MLB	ARI	92%	594	533	130	21	5	12	51	151	5	28	4	244	316	370	685	126	314	25	9	299	87	-9	+4	-2	+6	+17	1.7
2028	26	MLB	ARI	92%	582	521	128	21	4	13	51	147	5	27	4	246	319	376	695	131	313	25	9	304	91	-6	+4	-2	+6	+16	1.9
2029	27	MLB	ARI	92%	571	511	125	20	4	13	50	143	5	27	4	245	318	376	694	131	312	25	9	305	91	-6	+4	-2	+6	+16	1.9
2030	28	MLB	ARI	92%	559	499	122	20	4	13	50	141	5	25	4	244	319	379	698	134	311	25	9	304	91	-6	+3	-3	+6	+16	1.7
2031	29	MLB	ARI	92%	548	489	118	19	4	12	49	139	5	23	3	241	317	370	687	129	311	25	9	303	90	-6	+3	-3	+6	+16	1.5
2032	30	MLB	ARI	92%	537	479	116	19	4	12	48	138	5	20	3	242	318	374	691	132	310	26	9	300	88	-7	+3	-4	+6	+15	1.3
2033	31	MLB	ARI	92%	526	469	111	18	3	11	47	136	5	17	2	237	313	358	671	122	308	26	9	296	85	-9	+3	-4	+6	+15	1.0
2034	32	MLB	ARI	92%	516	461	107	17	3	10	46	136	4	14	2	232	307	347	654	115	305	26	9	291	81	-11	+2	-5	+6	+15	0.6
2035	33	MLB	ARI	92%	445	398	91	14	3	8	40	120	4	9	1	229	305	339	645	111	301	27	9	285	76	-12	+1	-5	+5	+13	0.1
2036	34	MLB	ARI	88%	358	320	70	10	2	6	32	98	3	5	1	219	296	319	615	100	296	27	9	277	70	-12	+1	-6	+4	+10	-0.3
2037	35	MLB	ARI	83%	287	258	56	8	2	5	25	81	2	3	0	217	291	322	613	105	290	28	9	268	63	-12	+1	-6	+3	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5749	5141	1224	195	40	119	508	1488	50	209	30	238	313	361	674	123	310	26	9	296	85	-100	+30	-43	+62	+163	11.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	138	22	5	13	57	168	6	24	3	238	312	360	671	122	310	26	9	296	85	-11	+4	-5	+7	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	7404	6630	1527	246	52	145	634	1941	76	282	44	230	305	349	653	118	301	26	9	293	83	-145	+39	-48	+79	+210	13.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	135	22	5	13	56	170	7	25	4	232	307	354	661	122	303	26	9	293	83	-13	+3	-4	+7	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	99	85	21	5	0	4	12	26	1	8	0	247	347	447	794	200	304	26	12	351	126	+3	+2	—	—	+3	0.8
2023	21	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	16	11	5	0	1	0	4	2	0	1	0	455	600	636	1.236	182	500	12	25	502	242	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2024	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	288	251	57	13	1	5	30	64	5	16	5	227	322	347	668	120	283	22	10	305	91	-3	+1	—	—	+8	0.7
2024	22	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	26	22	7	3	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	318	348	545	893	227	389	27	4	342	120	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	108	93	27	7	1	3	10	27	4	4	1	290	383	484	867	194	375	25	9	382	150	+6	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	182	156	46	8	2	3	18	28	5	3	1	295	385	429	815	135	339	15	10	362	135	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
2025	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	399	343	98	20	2	12	49	70	5	21	4	286	383	461	844	175	328	18	12	375	145	+20	+3	—	—	+11	3.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	11	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.6	18.1
	/162	664	12	17	264	333	391	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,886	119	217	236	308	357	+58	-17	16.7	15.3
	/162	664	13	25	236	308	357	+6.6	-1.9	1.9	pk7: 14
#3Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	10	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
	/162	664	17	40	255	322	397	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15
#4Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#5Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tommy Troy (OGILVIE)	24	40→47	40→48	60	55	240/312/356	116	324	10	18	27%	9%	87	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Delino DeShields 2017 · MLB	24	48→55	42→45	57→65	49	231/305/336	105	307	8	31	26%	9%	81	+0.4	234/313/327	93	309	7	32	24%	10%	82	+0.5	233/316/318	85	306	6	36	24%	10%	79	+0.2
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	46→45	55→70	46	221/294/354	133	287	14	29	27%	8%	82	+0.5	225/330/346	121	289	12	41	24%	11%	96	+1.5	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Brent Lillibridge 2008 · AAA	24	50→55	44→50	59→60	44	245/303/366	121	314	11	31	25%	7%	88	+0.9	217/274/319	102	289	8	29	26%	6%	63	-0.8	223/282/355	132	300	17	36	30%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Garrett Hampson 2019 · MLB	24	52→54	40→45	61→60	47	247/300/343	95	307	6	30	21%	7%	80	+0.4	220/274/329	109	289	9	24	26%	7%	66	-0.6	244/308/328	85	331	3	22	25%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Leo German 2017 · AAA	24	49→58	43→45	61→55	39	238/281/356	118	304	10	28	25%	4%	76	+0.1	265/300/351	86	350	7	22	25%	4%	82	+0.5	285/319/366	81	368	7	19	24%	4%	90	+0.7
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2023 · MLB	24	48→51	43→45	58→60	44	235/288/354	119	298	9	27	24%	6%	79	+0.3	239/301/343	104	323	7	31	26%	8%	81	+0.4	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	50→59	42→50	57→60	47	243/299/352	109	307	9	27	23%	8%	82	+0.5	255/311/368	113	311	9	26	20%	8%	92	+1.2	263/322/384	122	308	9	27	17%	8%	99	+1.8
✕Óscar Mercado 2020 · MLB	25	51→54	46→55	55→60	45	253/304/385	132	302	13	27	21%	6%	94	+1.3	229/291/369	140	269	14	21	20%	7%	85	+0.7	226/292/376	150	266	15	26	21%	7%	84	+0.4
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→55	51→50	58→65	42	234/296/390	156	317	20	33	32%	7%	92	+1.2	235/305/350	115	323	11	40	28%	8%	85	+0.7	233/305/335	103	318	8	43	27%	8%	78	+0.2
●Desmond Jennings 2012 · MLB	25	51→59	47→50	62→60	51	250/323/394	144	294	14	32	20%	8%	104	+2.0	243/317/393	150	290	15	25	20%	9%	102	+1.8	240/316/387	148	285	14	23	20%	9%	97	+1.5
✕Austin Martin 2023 · AA	24	48→52	38→40	57→60	51	222/323/301	79	285	5	25	22%	9%	82	+0.5	239/325/325	86	295	6	24	19%	9%	88	+0.9	265/358/344	79	323	3	22	17%	11%	104	+1.1
●Peter Bourjos 2010 · AA	23	51→56	42→50	62→60	42	245/287/363	119	304	8	28	22%	5%	79	+0.3	243/292/385	142	299	12	24	22%	5%	88	+0.9	250/310/389	140	318	12	18	24%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Everth Cabrera 2011 · MLB	24	51→60	38→40	59→65	49	237/307/328	91	306	4	30	23%	8%	79	+0.3	249/314/336	87	322	4	42	22%	8%	85	+0.7	262/328/346	84	335	4	54	21%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Ryan Kalish 2012 · MLB	24	47→51	48→50	56→55	47	236/293/378	142	284	15	24	22%	7%	87	+0.8	220/270/320	100	293	9	19	27%	6%	62	-0.9	212/256/305	93	285	8	20	28%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Chad Hinshaw 2016 · AA	25	49→44	44→45	57→55	43	235/310/356	121	325	11	28	29%	7%	89	+1.0	203/271/307	104	303	9	19	34%	6%	60	-1.0	170/239/267	98	260	9	18	36%	6%	34	-1.3
✕Dylan Moore 2017 · A	24	44→47	43→50	55→65	47	214/294/334	120	273	10	23	24%	8%	77	+0.1	206/272/327	121	267	11	18	26%	7%	66	-0.6	210/332/386	176	289	16	41	30%	12%	104	+1.0
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2011 · AA	24	47→50	42→45	57→60	47	228/297/347	118	282	8	22	21%	7%	81	+0.4	219/270/323	104	279	7	30	23%	6%	63	-0.9	234/297/356	122	296	11	26	24%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Vidal Bruján 2022 · MLB	24	46→56	44→45	61→65	48	226/280/344	117	264	11	41	19%	7%	72	-0.2	222/284/336	114	269	11	30	21%	7%	72	-0.2	214/288/314	100	265	7	24	21%	8%	64	-0.3
●Victor Robles 2021 · MLB	24	49→54	47→50	53→60	44	242/314/383	141	299	14	22	23%	6%	98	+1.6	225/298/334	109	291	9	19	25%	7%	79	+0.3	283/353/387	105	352	6	51	20%	6%	113	+0.9