Bubba Thompson — OGILVIE

Bubba ThompsonLF Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 197 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%4

BABIP296

ISO38

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT25

Whiff%

1018.7%

xAVG

100.177

POWER36

Barrel%

102.8

Avg EV

1084.2

Bat Spd

3669.9

EYE36

Chase%

1139.3%

SPEED80

Sprint

9029.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	19	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	123	113	29	7	2	3	6	28	4	5	5	257	317	434	751	177	317	23	5	333	112	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.3
2018	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	332	96	18	5	8	23	104	6	32	7	289	346	446	792	157	396	29	6	350	123	+10	+4	—	—	+8	2.2
2019	21	A+	Down East Wood Ducks	—	228	202	36	8	2	5	21	72	2	12	3	178	262	312	574	134	246	32	9	259	61	-10	+1	—	—	+5	-0.4
2019	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	83	71	18	1	0	3	8	25	2	5	0	254	346	394	740	141	333	30	10	328	108	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2021	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	429	118	23	9	16	29	121	4	25	8	275	327	483	809	207	347	26	6	349	122	+12	+2	—	—	+10	2.5
2022	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	181	170	45	5	0	1	7	56	2	18	3	265	302	312	613	47	389	31	4	277	74	-6	+2	-1	-6	+4	-0.6
2022	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	375	346	105	12	4	13	22	95	6	49	3	303	356	474	830	171	385	25	6	367	134	+15	+9	—	—	+8	3.3
2023	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	60	53	9	4	1	0	4	16	1	4	2	170	241	283	524	113	237	27	7	232	43	-4	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.8
2023	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	302	266	69	14	2	6	27	69	5	27	5	259	339	395	734	135	328	23	9	327	107	+3	+3	—	—	+7	1.3
2024	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	18	18	2	1	0	0	0	11	0	5	0	111	111	167	278	56	286	61	0	122	-32	-3	+1	-0	+1	+0	-0.1
2024	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	27	25	4	1	0	0	2	8	0	2	0	160	222	200	422	40	235	30	7	200	21	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	221	211	49	7	1	1	8	63	1	13	4	232	264	289	553	57	327	29	4	250	55	-12	+1	—	—	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	259	241	56	10	1	1	11	83	3	27	5	232	275	295	569	62	348	32	4	256	59	-13	+3	-2	-9	+6	-1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	123	115	21	5	1	2	4	40	4	5	5	183	236	296	531	113	254	33	3	228	40	-9	-1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2018	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	340	74	14	4	5	15	146	6	32	7	218	263	326	590	109	359	40	4	257	60	-17	+4	—	—	+8	-0.6
2019	21	A+ MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	228	210	25	6	1	3	13	102	2	12	3	119	178	200	378	81	208	45	6	177	6	-26	+1	—	—	+5	-2.0
2021	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	440	106	21	8	11	18	141	4	25	8	241	277	400	677	159	319	30	4	288	81	-11	+2	—	—	+10	0.1
2022	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	181	170	45	5	0	1	7	56	2	18	3	265	302	312	613	47	389	31	4	271	70	-7	+2	-1	-6	+4	-0.7
2022	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	375	353	89	10	3	10	15	121	6	49	3	252	294	382	677	130	355	32	4	296	86	-6	+9	—	—	+8	1.1
2023	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	60	53	9	4	1	0	4	16	1	4	2	170	241	283	524	113	237	27	7	227	40	-4	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.8
2023	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	302	275	64	12	2	4	18	83	5	27	5	233	292	335	626	102	310	27	6	275	72	-10	+3	—	—	+7	-0.0
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	18	18	2	1	0	0	0	11	0	5	0	111	111	167	278	56	286	61	0	118	-34	-3	+1	-0	+1	+0	-0.1
2024	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	27	26	4	1	0	0	1	10	0	2	0	154	185	192	377	38	216	37	4	158	-7	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	221	213	44	5	1	1	6	76	1	13	4	207	232	254	485	47	313	34	3	208	27	-19	+1	—	—	+5	-1.4
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	123	115	21	5	1	2	4	40	4	5	5	183	236	296	531	113	260	33	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	—	123	113	29	7	2	3	6	28	4	5	5	257	317	434	751	177	317	23	5	333	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	340	74	14	4	5	15	146	6	32	7	218	263	326	590	109	361	40	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	332	96	18	5	8	23	104	6	32	7	289	346	446	792	157	396	29	6	350	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	311	284	36	8	2	5	18	139	4	17	3	127	190	222	411	95	217	45	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	311	273	54	9	2	8	29	97	4	17	3	198	284	333	618	136	269	31	9	277	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	440	106	21	8	11	18	141	4	25	8	241	277	400	677	159	328	30	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	429	118	23	9	16	29	121	4	25	8	275	327	483	809	207	347	26	6	349	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	556	523	134	15	3	11	22	177	8	67	6	256	297	359	656	103	366	32	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	556	516	150	17	4	14	29	151	8	67	6	291	338	421	759	130	386	27	5	337	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	362	328	73	16	3	4	22	99	6	31	7	223	284	326	610	104	304	27	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	362	319	78	18	3	6	31	85	6	31	7	245	323	376	699	132	313	23	9	311	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	266	257	50	7	1	1	7	97	1	20	4	195	219	241	460	47	308	36	3	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	3 teams	—	266	254	55	9	1	1	10	82	1	20	4	217	249	272	521	55	316	31	4	236	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	123	114	21	5	1	2	4	40	4	5	5	184	236	298	534	114	254	33	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	339	74	14	4	5	15	146	6	32	7	218	263	327	591	109	359	40	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	311	286	36	8	2	5	18	139	4	17	3	126	190	220	410	94	208	45	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	445	106	21	8	11	18	141	4	25	8	238	277	396	673	157	319	30	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	556	521	134	15	3	11	22	177	8	67	6	257	297	361	657	104	366	32	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	362	331	73	16	3	4	22	99	6	31	7	221	284	323	607	103	298	27	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	266	256	50	7	1	1	7	97	1	20	4	195	219	242	461	47	301	36	3	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	362	331	73	16	3	4	22	99	6	31	7	221	284	323	607	103	298	27	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	266	256	50	7	1	1	7	97	1	20	4	195	219	242	461	47	301	36	3	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	CIN	2%	27	26	5	1	0	0	1	8	0	2	0	192	222	231	453	38	293	30	4	248	54	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.7
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	28	MLB CTX	CIN	2%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						296	0	0	245	54	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	23%	338	315	65	12	1	4	17	105	3	23	3	206	254	289	543	83	292	31	5	246	53	-19	+3	-1	-4	+7	-1.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	23%	77	72	15	3	0	1	4	24	1	5	1	208	260	292	551	83	295	31	5	243	53	-4	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	336	313	71	13	1	2	15	107	4	32	6	227	271	294	565	67	337	32	4	253	57	-17	+4	-2	-10	+7	-1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	137	25	2	4	29	207	8	62	12	226	271	294	565	68	335	32	4	253	57	-33	+8	-4	-19	+14	-3.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2816	2628	564	99	23	43	124	952	36	222	43	215	260	319	579	104	317	34	4	252	57	-33	+7	-3	-13	+14	-2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	607	130	23	5	10	29	220	8	51	10	214	260	318	578	104	316	34	4	252	57	-34	+8	-3	-13	+14	-3.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#2Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.5	324	2	28	232	275	300	-3	-2	-0.5	-0.4
/162	664	4	57	-6.4	-4.8	-1.1	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bubba Thompson (OGILVIE)	28	25	36	80	36	206/254/291	85	293	4	23	31%	5%	54	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Terrance Gore 2019 · AAA	28	42	35→30	63→70	41	201/254/252	51	276	3	41	27%	6%	45	-2.7	209/283/291	82	314	5	43	32%	8%	65	-1.2	202/301/279	77	308	0	73	30%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB	27	45→40	40	63→65	41	208/274/304	96	333	7	43	37%	8%	65	-1.2	205/271/319	114	334	10	27	39%	7%	67	-1.1	184/262/291	107	315	8	36	40%	8%	55	-0.9
✕Rico Noel 2016 · AAA	27	47→55	35→30	62→65	44	218/282/275	57	302	3	44	27%	7%	61	-1.5	202/251/283	81	289	6	29	31%	5%	51	-2.3	181/217/250	69	264	5	29	32%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Nick Dalesandro 2023 · AA	26	48	36→30	62→65	41	224/277/288	65	323	4	40	30%	7%	61	-1.5	212/269/284	72	307	5	29	30%	7%	57	-1.8	180/244/222	42	272	1	38	32%	7%	32	-1.4
✕Marland Williams 2007 · AAA	26	39→40	43→45	61→60	39	190/248/300	110	295	10	37	37%	7%	54	-2.0	190/249/305	115	341	12	23	44%	7%	55	-1.9	161/218/271	111	302	13	23	49%	6%	34	-2.1
✕Mel Stocker 2008 · AA	27	49	38→40	68→65	45	228/282/322	94	282	3	35	20%	6%	71	-0.8	237/291/318	81	287	3	39	17%	6%	74	-0.6	242/297/314	72	289	1	46	16%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Todd Donovan 2007 · AAA	28	51→54	39→40	63→65	46	241/296/328	87	293	6	42	19%	6%	78	-0.3	238/303/315	77	300	4	37	20%	8%	78	-0.3	237/317/305	68	308	2	42	21%	10%	78	-0.2
✕Eric Reed 2008 · MLB	27	50→52	37→40	63→60	38	234/269/318	84	310	3	33	25%	4%	64	-1.3	223/269/308	85	287	6	22	23%	5%	63	-1.4	199/244/219	19	252	0	19	20%	5%	30	-0.9
✕Darren Ford 2014 · MLB	28	46→53	39→45	58→65	42	222/271/304	82	294	6	41	26%	6%	63	-1.4	223/274/303	80	295	7	37	25%	6%	63	-1.3	222/273/292	70	290	6	37	24%	6%	58	-1.2
✕Monte Harrison 2023 · MLB	27	44	46→50	61→60	36	200/267/324	125	355	15	36	45%	8%	68	-1.0	200/259/306	106	379	11	26	46%	6%	59	-1.6	170/224/247	76	358	7	31	51%	5%	30	-1.9
✕Lane Adams 2018 · MLB	28	47→46	46→45	61→60	40	230/282/359	129	316	14	34	31%	6%	80	-0.1	196/260/318	122	311	13	23	38%	7%	63	-1.3	160/232/270	110	264	11	20	41%	7%	40	-1.5
✕Forrest Wall 2023 · AAA	27	46→55	38→45	65→70	39	214/273/296	82	321	5	47	33%	6%	62	-1.4	242/310/344	102	340	8	46	29%	8%	86	+0.3	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Tanner Kirwer 2023 · AA	27	44	42→40	59→60	45	213/291/309	96	302	11	32	31%	8%	73	-0.6	210/278/304	94	297	9	27	30%	7%	66	-1.1	178/249/248	70	249	8	46	30%	7%	41	-1.0
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2022 · MLB	27	44→52	43→45	59→65	39	215/264/326	110	287	10	35	28%	5%	65	-1.2	210/272/326	116	286	13	30	30%	5%	70	-0.9	181/252/274	93	245	12	44	30%	5%	49	-1.2
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	47→50	42→45	60	41	225/283/336	111	304	8	29	28%	6%	75	-0.5	210/274/318	108	307	10	20	33%	7%	68	-1.0	149/221/220	71	245	7	18	39%	7%	26	-1.2
✕Ryan Strausborger 2016 · MLB	28	45→47	42→45	59→55	42	222/263/328	106	270	9	28	22%	5%	65	-1.2	211/268/310	99	290	9	22	29%	6%	63	-1.3	189/253/268	79	275	8	22	32%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Esix Snead 2006 · AAA	30	47	37→30	63→65	50	219/296/291	72	268	3	44	19%	8%	70	-0.8	220/287/304	84	268	7	33	19%	8%	70	-0.9	203/264/238	35	242	3	46	16%	8%	44	-0.7
✕Tyler Graham 2013 · AAA	29	51→54	37→40	62→65	45	239/296/314	76	300	3	42	21%	6%	74	-0.5	230/283/307	77	288	6	31	21%	5%	68	-1.0	236/277/285	48	291	3	38	19%	4%	57	-1.4
✕Dwaine Bacon 2006 · AAA	27	50→51	38→40	63→65	45	227/301/314	87	338	4	39	31%	9%	77	-0.3	213/275/310	97	291	7	32	27%	7%	66	-1.1	193/252/285	92	254	6	40	25%	7%	49	-1.6
✕Zach Davis 2022 · AAA	28	47→52	37→30	58→65	41	218/277/288	70	311	5	34	30%	6%	61	-1.5	219/289/289	70	325	4	41	31%	7%	68	-1.0	225/304/263	38	336	0	78	30%	8%	65	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps