Bubba Thompson — OGILVIE

Bubba ThompsonOF Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 197 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 316 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .253 / .292

PA316

HR4

SB23

K%32

BB%5

ISO87

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 22 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT22

Whiff%

1018.7%

xwOBA

100.214

POWER36

Barrel%

102.8

Avg EV

1084.2

Bat Spd

3669.9

EYE36

Chase%

1139.3%

SPEED80

Sprint

9029.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	123	115	21	5	1	2	4	40	4	5	5	183	236	296	531	113	260	33	3	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	123	113	29	7	2	3	6	28	4	5	5	257	317	434	751	177	317	23	5	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	340	75	16	5	4	15	154	6	32	7	221	266	332	598	112	386	42	4	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	332	96	18	5	8	23	104	6	32	7	289	346	446	792	157	396	29	6	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	2 teams	—	311	283	34	8	2	4	19	139	4	17	3	120	186	205	391	85	210	45	6	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	2 teams	—	311	273	54	9	2	8	29	97	4	17	3	198	284	333	618	136	269	31	9	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	441	107	22	8	12	17	143	4	25	8	243	277	410	687	168	330	30	4	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	429	118	23	9	16	29	121	4	25	8	275	327	483	809	207	347	26	6	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	556	523	138	16	4	11	22	175	8	67	6	264	304	373	677	109	376	31	4	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	556	516	150	17	4	14	29	151	8	67	6	291	338	421	759	130	386	27	5	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	362	328	75	16	2	6	22	100	6	31	7	229	289	345	634	116	308	28	6	275	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	362	319	78	18	3	6	31	85	6	31	7	245	323	376	699	132	313	23	9	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	3 teams	—	266	257	49	6	1	1	7	101	1	20	4	191	215	233	449	43	310	38	3	194	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	3 teams	—	266	254	55	9	1	1	10	82	1	20	4	217	249	272	521	55	316	31	4	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	CIN	—	316	294	61	11	1	4	16	101	3	23	3	207	256	293	548	85	297	32	5	248	48	-19	+3	+1	-3	+9	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	CIN	23%	338	315	64	11	1	4	17	109	3	23	3	203	251	283	533	79	296	32	5	246	46	-20	+3	-1	-4	+10	-1.2
2028	30	MLB	CIN	35%	351	327	66	12	1	4	18	114	3	22	3	202	250	281	531	80	295	32	5	243	44	-22	+3	-1	-4	+10	-1.5
2027	29	MLB	CIN	23%	77	72	15	3	0	1	4	25	1	5	1	208	260	292	551	83	298	32	5	241	43	-5	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.3
2028	30	MLB	CIN	35%	122	114	22	4	0	1	6	40	1	8	1	193	240	254	494	61	297	33	5	239	41	-8	+1	-1	-1	+3	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	458	427	93	17	1	3	21	148	5	40	7	218	263	283	546	66	324	32	5	249	49	-27	+5	-3	-11	+13	-2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	606	131	24	1	4	30	210	7	57	10	216	261	279	540	63	322	32	5	249	49	-38	+7	-4	-16	+18	-3.2
Career	—			—	3456	3223	690	123	26	52	157	1176	42	265	49	214	260	317	577	103	317	34	5	253	52	-189	+33	-4	-33	+98	-9.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	606	130	23	5	10	30	221	8	50	9	215	261	318	579	104	317	34	5	253	52	-36	+6	-1	-6	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	123	113	29	7	2	3	6	28	4	5	5	257	317	434	751	177	317	23	5	333	113	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2018	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	363	332	96	18	5	8	23	104	6	32	7	289	346	446	792	157	396	29	6	350	126	+11	+4	—	—	+10	2.5
2019	21	A+	Down East Wood Ducks	—	228	202	36	8	2	5	21	72	2	12	3	178	262	312	574	134	246	32	9	259	56	-11	+1	—	—	+6	-0.4
2019	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	83	71	18	1	0	3	8	25	2	5	0	254	346	394	740	141	333	30	10	328	109	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2021	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	470	429	118	23	9	16	29	121	4	25	8	275	327	483	809	207	347	26	6	349	125	+13	+2	—	—	+13	2.9
2022	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	181	170	45	5	0	1	7	56	2	18	3	265	302	312	613	47	389	31	4	277	70	-6	+2	-1	-6	+5	-0.5
2022	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	375	346	105	12	4	13	22	95	6	49	3	303	356	474	830	171	385	25	6	367	139	+16	+9	—	—	+11	3.6
2023	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	60	53	9	4	1	0	4	16	1	4	2	170	241	283	524	113	237	27	7	232	35	-4	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.8
2023	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	302	266	69	14	2	6	27	69	5	27	5	259	339	395	734	135	328	23	9	327	108	+3	+3	—	—	+9	1.5
2024	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	18	18	2	1	0	0	0	11	0	5	0	111	111	167	278	56	286	61	0	122	-49	-3	+1	-0	+1	+1	-0.1
2024	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	27	25	4	1	0	0	2	8	0	2	0	160	222	200	422	40	235	30	7	200	11	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	221	211	49	7	1	1	8	63	1	13	4	232	264	289	553	57	327	29	4	250	49	-13	+1	—	—	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	259	241	56	10	1	1	11	83	3	27	5	232	275	295	569	62	348	32	4	256	54	-13	+3	-2	-9	+7	-1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	446	3	35	225	268	297	-4	-4	-1.0	-0.7
	/162	664	5	53	225	268	297	-5.7	-5.2	-1.5	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bubba Thompson (OGILVIE)	28	22	36	80	36	205/253/292	87	297	4	23	32%	5%	48	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Terrance Gore 2019 · AAA	28	41→43	35→30	63→70	40	196/245/248	52	269	3	41	27%	5%	32	-3.0	206/276/288	82	309	5	43	32%	8%	57	-1.2	204/300/284	80	310	0	73	30%	10%	63	-0.2
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB	27	43→35	41→40	63→65	39	199/265/300	100	330	9	43	40%	8%	55	-1.4	202/268/320	118	330	12	27	39%	7%	63	-0.9	178/258/290	112	301	10	36	41%	8%	48	-0.8
✕Marland Williams 2007 · AAA	26	38→39	43→45	61→60	38	189/247/301	112	296	10	37	38%	7%	48	-1.9	188/246/306	118	349	13	23	46%	7%	49	-1.8	155/212/270	116	306	14	23	51%	6%	23	-2.2
✕Nick Dalesandro 2023 · AA	26	46	36→30	62→65	40	214/266/277	63	314	4	40	32%	6%	49	-1.8	205/264/276	71	304	4	29	31%	7%	48	-1.9	167/236/204	38	260	1	38	33%	8%	16	-1.5
✕Rico Noel 2016 · AAA	27	46→55	35→30	62→65	43	215/277/270	55	300	3	44	28%	7%	52	-1.6	201/247/283	82	290	6	29	31%	5%	43	-2.2	181/216/251	70	266	5	29	33%	3%	17	-1.0
✕Mel Stocker 2008 · AA	27	48	38→40	68→65	45	226/280/319	93	283	3	35	20%	6%	66	-0.6	236/291/317	81	288	3	39	18%	6%	69	-0.4	241/297/313	73	290	2	46	16%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Eric Reed 2008 · MLB	27	49→51	37→40	63→60	38	233/268/318	84	310	3	33	25%	4%	59	-1.1	221/265/306	85	286	6	22	23%	5%	56	-1.3	197/241/216	19	252	0	19	21%	5%	18	-1.0
✕Todd Donovan 2007 · AAA	28	50→53	40	63→65	45	240/295/331	91	293	7	42	20%	6%	76	+0.0	236/301/315	79	301	5	37	21%	8%	73	-0.1	234/314/303	69	308	3	42	23%	10%	74	-0.1
✕Darren Ford 2014 · MLB	28	47→53	39→45	58→65	41	223/269/309	86	300	7	41	27%	6%	59	-1.1	224/273/305	81	298	7	37	26%	6%	59	-1.1	223/273/294	71	292	6	37	24%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Dwaine Bacon 2006 · AAA	27	49→50	38→40	63→65	44	223/298/311	87	340	4	39	33%	9%	72	-0.2	211/273/311	100	293	7	32	29%	7%	61	-1.0	191/250/287	96	255	7	40	27%	7%	41	-1.5
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2022 · MLB	27	43→52	44→45	59→65	38	214/262/331	116	287	11	35	29%	5%	62	-0.9	213/273/338	125	291	14	30	31%	5%	69	-0.4	188/256/296	108	256	15	44	31%	5%	50	-0.9
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
✕Ryan Strausborger 2016 · MLB	28	45→47	42→45	59→55	41	222/261/325	103	272	9	28	22%	5%	59	-1.1	213/268/315	102	291	10	22	29%	6%	60	-1.0	194/257/282	87	279	9	22	32%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Roemon Fields 2018 · AAA	27	48→55	35→30	61→60	42	227/268/287	60	296	2	40	23%	5%	51	-1.7	225/276/291	66	295	4	30	23%	6%	56	-1.3	219/276/274	55	287	3	30	23%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Tanner Kirwer 2023 · AA	27	44	43→40	59→60	45	214/295/319	105	309	12	32	32%	9%	74	-0.1	212/279/316	104	299	11	27	31%	7%	66	-0.6	180/249/269	88	246	11	46	30%	7%	38	-0.9
✕Zach Davis 2022 · AAA	28	46→52	37→30	58→65	40	218/274/289	71	313	5	34	31%	6%	56	-1.3	217/286/288	71	329	5	41	33%	7%	61	-1.0	222/300/261	39	341	0	78	31%	8%	59	-0.4
✕Forrest Wall 2023 · AAA	27	46→56	38→45	65→70	38	215/271/301	86	323	5	47	33%	6%	58	-1.2	252/317/361	109	350	9	46	28%	8%	92	+1.2	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Jeremias Pineda 2019 · AAA	28	51→57	35→30	62→65	40	226/284/289	63	351	2	34	34%	7%	59	-1.1	250/304/334	84	338	6	28	26%	6%	79	+0.3	282/333/341	60	377	4	42	25%	6%	88	+0.4
✕Darin Mastroianni 2014 · MLB	28	48→58	38→40	61→60	47	225/288/303	78	289	5	34	23%	7%	65	-0.7	222/273/296	74	283	5	24	22%	6%	57	-1.2	221/270/284	63	280	4	24	21%	5%	49	-1.3
✕Esix Snead 2006 · AAA	30	47	37→30	63→65	50	219/294/292	73	267	4	44	19%	8%	66	-0.6	220/283/304	84	267	7	33	19%	7%	63	-0.8	204/265/243	38	243	4	46	16%	8%	38	-0.7