Brice Matthews — OGILVIE

Brice MatthewsLF Houston Astros

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 0.174 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 349 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA226

HR0

K%32

BB%9

BABIP274

ISO175

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 33 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT33

Whiff%

903.8%

xAVG

100.190

POWER55

Barrel%

7211.4

Avg EV

2487.1

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE57

Chase%

906.2%

SPEED60

Sprint

7928.6

DEFENSE53

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 82 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

101

▶▶R

wOBA

248

317

▶▶R

ISO

210

258

▶▶R

BABIP

250

229

◀L

50.0%

37.1%

▶▶R

BB%

5.0%

8.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.174 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.7M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.8M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-3M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	120	26	6	0	4	24	40	6	16	3	217	373	367	740	150	289	27	16	344	119	+3	+2	—	—	+3	0.9
2024	22	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	48	42	6	2	0	0	3	19	3	3	0	143	250	190	440	48	261	40	6	218	34	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	181	151	38	8	1	9	24	61	6	16	4	252	376	497	872	245	358	34	13	386	147	+10	+2	—	—	+4	1.6
2024	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	97	81	26	3	0	6	14	26	1	10	3	321	427	580	1.007	259	400	27	14	435	181	+9	+1	—	—	+2	1.2
2024	22	ROK	FCL Astros	—	18	13	6	2	0	0	5	2	0	3	2	462	611	615	1.226	154	545	11	28	538	250	+3	-0	—	—	+0	0.3
2024	22	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	85	75	15	2	0	4	10	30	0	3	3	200	294	387	681	187	268	35	12	306	93	-1	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	167	222	452	675	286	167	43	4	280	76	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2025	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	498	419	109	18	7	17	70	139	6	41	11	260	374	458	832	198	346	28	14	369	136	+21	+4	—	—	+11	3.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	167	222	452	675	286	167	43	4	280	76	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	129	22	5	0	3	15	56	6	16	3	171	287	279	566	109	272	37	10	264	65	-6	+2	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	22	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	48	43	4	1	0	0	2	24	3	3	0	93	188	116	304	23	225	50	4	161	-5	-6	+1	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	181	158	32	7	1	7	17	74	6	16	4	203	304	392	696	190	323	41	9	300	89	-2	+2	—	—	+4	0.3
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	97	85	21	2	0	4	10	35	1	10	3	247	333	412	745	165	357	36	10	330	109	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	18	15	6	2	0	0	3	3	0	3	2	400	500	533	1.033	133	434	17	17	405	160	+1	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	167	222	452	675	286	167	43	4	282	77	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2025	23	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	498	442	90	15	6	13	47	180	6	41	11	204	289	353	642	149	301	36	9	283	78	-13	+4	—	—	+11	0.1
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	129	22	5	0	3	15	56	6	16	3	171	287	279	566	109	271	37	10	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	120	26	6	0	4	24	40	6	16	3	217	373	367	740	150	289	27	16	344	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	5 teams	—	429	379	79	15	1	14	39	170	10	35	12	208	299	364	663	156	332	40	9	295	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	5 teams	—	429	362	91	17	1	19	56	138	10	35	12	251	367	461	828	210	350	32	13	369	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	545	484	97	15	6	17	49	200	7	42	11	200	283	362	645	161	296	37	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	545	461	116	18	7	21	72	159	7	42	11	252	361	458	819	206	335	29	13	361	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	128	22	5	0	3	15	56	6	16	3	172	287	281	568	109	272	37	10	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	5 teams	—	429	377	79	15	1	14	39	170	10	35	12	210	299	366	665	156	325	40	9	295	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	545	484	97	15	6	17	49	200	7	42	11	200	283	362	645	161	289	37	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	128	22	5	0	3	15	56	6	16	3	172	287	281	568	109	272	37	10	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	5 teams	—	429	377	79	15	1	14	39	170	10	35	12	210	299	366	665	156	325	40	9	295	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	545	484	97	15	6	17	49	200	7	42	11	200	283	362	645	161	289	37	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	226	208	41	5	1	7	15	71	0	4	4	197	251	332	583	135	260	31	7	256	60	-11	-1	-1	-2	+5	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	HOU	—	226	208	41	5	1	7	15	71	0	4	4	197	251	332	583	135	260	31	7	258	60	-11	-1	-1	-2	+5	-1.0
YTD	24	MLB RAW	HOU	—	226	208	41	5	1	7	15	71	0	4	4	197	251	332	583	135	260	31	7	258	61	-10	-1	-1	-2	+5	-1.0
ROS	24	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	273	—	—	287	81	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
ROS	24	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	24	MLB A+C	HOU	—	226	208	41	5	1	7	15	71	0	4	4	197	251	332	583	135	260	31	7	258	60	-11	-1	-1	-2	+5	-1.0
TOT	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	226	208	41	5	1	7	15	71	0	4	4	197	251	332	583	135	260	31	7	256	60	-11	-1	-1	-2	+5	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	420	379	79	12	3	15	34	134	4	18	6	208	281	375	655	166	273	32	8	291	83	-8	+1	+1	-4	+9	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	441	398	83	12	3	16	36	140	4	19	6	209	281	374	655	166	273	32	8	293	84	-8	+1	+1	-5	+10	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	442	398	83	12	3	16	37	141	4	19	6	209	282	374	657	166	273	32	8	293	84	-8	+1	+1	-5	+10	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	439	395	82	12	3	16	37	141	4	18	6	208	282	375	657	167	273	32	8	292	84	-8	+1	+0	-5	+10	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	429	386	80	11	3	16	36	138	4	17	5	207	282	376	657	168	272	32	8	290	83	-9	+1	-1	-5	+9	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	420	378	77	11	2	15	35	136	4	15	5	204	278	362	641	159	271	32	8	288	81	-9	+1	-1	-4	+9	-0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	405	365	72	10	2	14	34	133	3	12	4	197	271	351	622	153	269	33	8	284	78	-10	+1	-2	-4	+9	-0.7
2034	32	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	386	348	69	10	2	13	32	128	3	10	3	198	272	351	622	152	266	33	8	279	75	-11	+1	-3	-4	+8	-0.9
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	386	349	73	11	2	14	31	123	3	17	5	209	279	372	652	163	275	32	8	284	83	-8	+1	+1	-4	+8	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	406	366	77	11	3	15	33	129	4	18	6	210	283	380	663	169	275	32	8	285	84	-8	+1	+1	-4	+9	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	407	366	77	11	3	15	34	130	4	18	6	210	285	380	664	169	275	32	8	286	84	-8	+1	+1	-4	+9	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	404	363	75	11	2	15	34	129	4	17	5	207	282	372	654	165	274	32	8	285	84	-8	+1	+0	-4	+9	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	395	356	73	11	2	14	33	127	3	15	5	205	278	365	643	160	274	32	8	283	83	-8	+1	-1	-4	+9	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	386	347	70	10	2	13	33	125	3	13	4	202	277	354	631	153	272	32	9	281	81	-9	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	373	336	68	10	2	13	31	122	3	11	4	202	276	360	636	158	270	33	8	277	78	-10	+1	-2	-4	+8	-0.7
2034	32	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	355	319	64	9	2	12	30	118	3	9	3	201	276	354	630	154	267	33	8	272	75	-11	+1	-3	-4	+8	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3159	2844	584	84	18	115	261	1023	28	119	38	205	279	369	647	164	272	32	8	282	81	-69	+9	-4	-31	+68	-2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	121	17	4	24	54	210	6	24	8	207	281	373	653	166	274	32	8	282	81	-14	+2	-1	-6	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4506	4039	823	125	28	155	384	1517	53	221	67	204	282	364	645	160	280	34	9	288	81	-75	+9	-5	-34	+74	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	118	18	4	22	55	219	8	32	10	202	280	360	640	158	278	34	8	288	81	-14	+2	-1	-6	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.6	3,686	133	143	207	277	370	+27	-4	6.4	6.5
/162	664	24	26	+4.9	-0.8	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brice Matthews (OGILVIE)	24	31→33	51→55	60	57	205/275/364	159	273	12	15	32%	8%	81	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43	51→55	57→50	48	219/303/382	163	293	19	14	31%	10%	94	+0.9	215/289/381	166	264	20	8	26%	8%	88	+0.5	208/282/381	173	246	21	5	25%	8%	85	+0.2
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	49→55	59→55	47	205/293/360	155	287	16	24	33%	10%	86	+0.3	245/323/418	173	327	19	21	29%	9%	109	+2.0	229/312/387	159	297	19	21	28%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Justin Maxwell 2009 · MLB	25	42→44	54→60	55→60	45	220/289/398	177	279	22	23	29%	8%	93	+0.8	215/295/355	140	316	16	29	34%	9%	85	+0.2	221/295/426	205	300	26	17	34%	9%	99	+0.6
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	42→40	51→50	51→55	45	218/285/381	163	274	18	17	27%	7%	87	+0.4	175/249/292	117	254	14	21	35%	7%	54	-2.0	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Jonny DeLuca 2023 · AA	25	39→37	57→60	56→55	46	217/280/414	197	242	25	15	23%	7%	93	+0.8	227/291/386	159	266	18	19	21%	7%	91	+0.6	227/293/373	145	267	15	23	21%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→50	52→55	60→55	48	218/298/397	180	264	19	29	25%	8%	96	+1.0	219/284/371	152	274	16	24	25%	8%	84	+0.2	224/284/362	138	278	14	23	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2023 · MLB	24	44→49	53→50	52→50	42	227/279/402	175	290	20	17	29%	6%	89	+0.5	226/285/345	119	279	13	12	23%	7%	78	-0.3	241/293/341	100	295	13	8	22%	6%	79	-0.1
●Chris Young 2007 · MLB	23	43→48	54→60	54→55	48	225/294/412	186	262	21	20	23%	8%	98	+1.2	235/302/435	200	277	23	18	23%	8%	106	+1.8	239/321/429	190	289	21	17	24%	10%	108	+2.1
✕Lewis Brinson 2018 · MLB	24	46→53	51→55	52→50	42	235/286/398	162	291	18	16	26%	6%	91	+0.7	207/260/339	132	282	14	12	31%	5%	68	-1.0	230/272/404	174	301	22	8	31%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→50	48→50	55	46	234/298/377	143	301	16	24	27%	8%	91	+0.6	226/293/350	124	292	12	15	25%	8%	82	+0.0	225/293/333	108	284	10	17	23%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Ryan Cordell 2016 · AA	24	46→43	48→50	55→50	40	233/279/376	143	297	16	15	27%	5%	83	+0.1	216/261/356	140	281	15	14	28%	5%	72	-0.7	202/246/339	137	261	15	14	28%	5%	61	-0.8
✕Casper Wells 2009 · AA	24	42→44	55→60	53→50	44	224/296/411	187	269	22	16	26%	7%	99	+1.2	221/289/404	183	287	21	10	30%	7%	94	+0.9	222/294/415	193	276	22	7	27%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Craig Stansberry 2006 · AA	24	43→47	50	56→50	43	222/278/391	169	279	16	15	27%	6%	86	+0.3	215/285/350	135	267	12	13	23%	8%	80	-0.2	209/286/332	123	256	11	11	22%	9%	74	-0.5
✕Derek Norris 2013 · MLB	24	38→48	52→55	50	49	205/288/370	165	259	20	12	29%	10%	86	+0.3	246/324/403	157	303	17	8	23%	10%	106	+1.8	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Brandon Wood 2009 · MLB	24	40→45	55→65	49→50	40	219/272/400	181	278	24	11	31%	6%	86	+0.3	207/254/353	146	262	19	5	28%	5%	69	-0.9	196/241/325	129	246	17	1	28%	5%	55	-1.1
✕Kevin Smith 2022 · MLB	26	39→45	52→55	53→50	41	207/267/374	167	274	19	17	32%	7%	79	-0.2	207/255/348	141	295	17	15	35%	5%	68	-1.0	197/240/324	127	287	16	15	36%	5%	55	-1.2
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2022 · MLB	24	46→50	54→60	54→60	42	235/296/415	179	309	22	22	31%	7%	99	+1.2	254/316/462	208	317	27	28	28%	8%	118	+2.6	247/321/445	199	302	28	36	27%	9%	112	+1.9
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→54	48→45	58→65	42	230/293/371	140	312	17	33	31%	7%	87	+0.4	233/305/343	110	322	10	40	28%	9%	85	+0.2	233/306/336	103	319	9	43	28%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	47→50	58→55	46	200/276/339	139	268	15	19	30%	9%	74	-0.5	213/284/345	132	280	14	17	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Danny Espinosa 2011 · MLB	24	45→51	50→55	50	42	229/288/386	157	295	18	17	28%	6%	89	+0.5	229/297/380	151	302	16	15	28%	7%	91	+0.7	219/300/377	158	286	20	10	29%	8%	83	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps