Brice Matthews — OGILVIE

Brice MatthewsSS Houston Astros

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 0.174 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION226 act + 150 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .274 / .359

PA150

HR5

SB7

K%32

BB%8

BABIP272

ISO154

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 56

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT35

Whiff%

903.8%

xwOBA

140.266

POWER56

Barrel%

7211.4

Avg EV

2487.1

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE54

Chase%

906.2%

SPEED59

Sprint

7928.6

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 82 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

101

▶▶R

wOBA

248

317

▶▶R

ISO

210

258

▶▶R

BABIP

250

229

◀L

50.0%

37.1%

▶▶R

BB%

5.0%

8.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.174 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.3M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.7M		$-0.2M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	128	23	5	0	3	16	55	6	16	3	180	300	289	589	109	286	37	11	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	120	26	6	0	4	24	40	6	16	3	217	373	367	740	150	289	27	16	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	5 teams	—	429	378	79	15	1	15	40	176	10	35	12	209	301	373	674	164	340	41	9	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	5 teams	—	429	362	91	17	1	19	56	138	10	35	12	251	367	461	828	210	350	32	13	369	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	2 teams	—	545	486	99	17	7	17	47	201	7	42	11	204	283	372	656	169	303	37	9	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	2 teams	—	545	461	116	18	7	21	72	159	7	42	11	252	361	458	819	206	335	29	13	361	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	HOU	—	226	208	41	5	1	7	15	71	0	4	4	197	251	332	583	135	260	31	7	256	54	-12	-1	-1	-2	+6	-0.9
YTD	24	MLB	HOU	—	226	208	41	5	1	7	15	71	0	4	4	197	251	332	583	135	260	31	7	258	56	-11	-1	-1	-2	+6	-0.9
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	100%	150	136	28	4	1	5	12	48	1	7	2	205	274	359	632	154	273	32	8	288	78	-4	+1	+0	-2	+4	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	100%	151	137	29	4	1	6	12	49	1	7	2	212	280	387	667	175	276	32	8	285	76	-4	+1	+0	-2	+4	-0.1
FULL	24	MLB	HOU	—	377	345	70	9	2	13	27	120	1	11	6	203	263	354	616	151	266	32	7	267	63	-16	-0	-1	-4	+11	-1.0
TOT	24	MLB	HOU	—	376	344	69	9	2	12	27	119	1	11	6	200	260	342	603	142	264	32	7	268	64	-15	-0	-1	-4	+11	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	HOU	92%	420	380	79	12	3	15	33	134	4	18	6	208	278	374	652	166	275	32	8	292	82	-9	+1	+0	-4	+12	-0.0
2028	26	MLB	HOU	92%	441	399	83	13	3	16	35	141	4	19	6	208	279	376	654	168	275	32	8	293	83	-9	+1	+0	-5	+12	0.1
2029	27	MLB	HOU	92%	442	399	83	13	3	16	36	142	4	19	6	208	280	376	656	168	275	32	8	294	83	-9	+1	+0	-5	+13	0.1
2027	25	MLB	HOU	92%	386	349	74	11	3	15	31	124	3	17	5	212	282	390	672	178	277	32	8	289	79	-9	+1	+0	-4	+11	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	HOU	92%	406	367	79	12	3	16	32	130	4	18	6	215	285	395	680	180	277	32	8	290	80	-9	+1	+0	-4	+12	-0.1
2029	27	MLB	HOU	92%	407	367	79	12	3	16	33	130	4	18	6	215	287	395	682	180	277	32	8	291	81	-9	+1	+0	-4	+12	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1397	1262	268	39	10	57	110	453	13	61	19	212	282	395	677	182	278	32	8	289	79	-32	+5	+0	-13	+40	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	125	18	5	27	51	211	6	28	9	213	282	399	681	186	278	32	8	289	79	-15	+2	+0	-6	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	2577	2306	474	79	18	87	219	897	36	156	46	205	285	368	653	163	290	35	8	291	81	-55	+13	+0	-20	+73	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	120	20	5	22	55	226	9	39	12	206	285	371	656	165	291	35	8	291	81	-14	+3	+0	-5	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	120	26	6	0	4	24	40	6	16	3	217	373	367	740	150	289	27	16	344	122	+4	+2	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	22	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	48	42	6	2	0	0	3	19	3	3	0	143	250	190	440	48	261	40	6	218	25	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	181	151	38	8	1	9	24	61	6	16	4	252	376	497	872	245	358	34	13	386	154	+11	+2	—	—	+5	1.8
2024	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	97	81	26	3	0	6	14	26	1	10	3	321	427	580	1.007	259	400	27	14	435	191	+10	+1	—	—	+3	1.4
2024	22	ROK	FCL Astros	—	18	13	6	2	0	0	5	2	0	3	2	462	611	615	1.226	154	545	11	28	538	269	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	22	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	85	75	15	2	0	4	10	30	0	3	3	200	294	387	681	187	268	35	12	306	92	-1	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	167	222	452	675	286	167	43	4	280	73	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2025	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	498	419	109	18	7	17	70	139	6	41	11	260	374	458	832	198	346	28	14	369	140	+23	+4	—	—	+14	4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	167	222	452	675	286	167	43	4	280	73	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,775	65	77	209	276	377	+7	-2	3.1	3.1
	/162	664	24	29	209	276	377	+2.5	-0.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brice Matthews (OGILVIE)	24	33→35	50→56	59	54	200/260/342	142	264	12	11	32%	7%	64	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	42→43	52→55	56→55	41	217/280/383	166	298	20	23	34%	7%	84	+0.6	203/276/341	138	281	16	17	32%	8%	72	-0.2	188/269/315	127	256	15	16	31%	9%	59	-0.7
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	54→60	53→50	37	208/268/384	176	312	22	17	40%	7%	79	+0.3	213/276/406	193	274	27	11	32%	7%	89	+0.9	206/270/403	197	248	29	10	30%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2023 · MLB	24	44→43	54→55	52→50	41	230/281/417	187	294	22	17	30%	6%	93	+1.3	226/284/347	121	278	14	12	23%	7%	76	+0.0	239/292/343	104	291	13	7	22%	7%	76	+0.0
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	51→55	59→55	46	204/291/370	166	288	19	24	34%	10%	85	+0.7	246/324/427	181	328	21	21	29%	9%	113	+2.6	236/320/399	164	307	19	21	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Justin Maxwell 2009 · MLB	25	42→44	54→60	55→60	44	221/289/403	182	280	23	23	30%	8%	93	+1.3	218/297/368	150	319	17	29	34%	9%	87	+0.8	223/297/433	210	304	27	17	34%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43	52→55	57→50	48	219/304/387	168	295	20	14	31%	10%	95	+1.4	216/290/387	171	266	20	8	26%	8%	89	+1.0	209/283/386	177	247	22	5	25%	8%	84	+0.5
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	42→40	52→50	51→55	45	219/286/388	169	275	19	17	28%	8%	88	+0.9	179/253/304	125	255	16	21	35%	8%	53	-1.5	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→49	54→55	60→55	48	220/301/407	187	268	20	29	26%	8%	99	+1.7	219/284/372	153	274	16	24	25%	8%	82	+0.5	216/279/363	147	269	15	22	25%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	45→52	50	57→60	41	234/284/381	148	293	18	31	27%	5%	85	+0.7	215/279/345	130	270	16	25	26%	6%	73	-0.1	206/267/320	115	269	15	25	28%	6%	60	-0.6
✕Lewis Brinson 2018 · MLB	24	44→52	51→55	52→50	42	229/280/393	163	285	19	16	27%	6%	86	+0.8	205/257/335	130	282	14	12	31%	5%	61	-1.0	233/275/409	176	307	23	8	31%	5%	85	+0.3
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	38→40	54→55	52→50	44	205/277/385	180	283	22	14	35%	9%	83	+0.6	217/290/383	166	323	18	12	36%	9%	88	+0.9	211/290/368	157	322	17	12	37%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2022 · MLB	25	43→45	49→55	53→55	42	219/285/370	151	290	16	19	30%	7%	82	+0.5	213/277/349	136	287	15	21	30%	7%	73	-0.1	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	55	46	237/301/388	152	305	17	24	28%	8%	94	+1.3	230/296/357	127	295	12	15	25%	8%	83	+0.6	231/293/342	111	293	10	15	23%	7%	76	+0.0
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	46→45	55→70	46	221/294/354	133	287	14	29	27%	8%	82	+0.5	225/330/346	121	289	12	41	24%	11%	96	+1.5	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Kevin Smith 2022 · MLB	26	38→43	54→55	53→50	40	206/264/388	182	272	22	17	33%	7%	79	+0.3	206/253/347	141	293	17	15	35%	5%	63	-0.9	197/240/321	124	286	16	15	36%	5%	48	-1.2
●Trevor Story 2017 · MLB	24	41→49	54→60	53→55	42	215/282/399	184	296	21	15	34%	8%	89	+1.0	229/296/423	194	298	23	16	30%	8%	101	+1.8	247/315/451	204	301	24	25	26%	8%	113	+2.3
✕Craig Stansberry 2006 · AA	24	43→47	52→50	56→50	42	222/279/400	178	282	18	15	28%	6%	88	+0.9	216/285/356	140	269	13	13	24%	8%	79	+0.3	228/291/336	108	277	10	8	20%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Ryan Kreidler 2023 · MLB	25	41→44	48→50	52→55	44	208/287/345	137	294	16	17	33%	8%	77	+0.1	192/272/329	137	274	17	20	34%	8%	67	-0.5	185/267/314	129	265	14	19	33%	9%	58	-0.7
✕Franklin Barreto 2020 · MLB	24	42→48	52→55	53→50	38	216/274/384	169	310	20	13	36%	6%	82	+0.5	194/257/327	133	311	15	16	40%	7%	59	-1.1	126/203/233	107	203	15	17	45%	8%	11	-1.4