Brice Matthews — OGILVIE

Brice MatthewsSS Houston Astros

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB H +4%HR -3% Svc 0.174 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2028

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .288 / .385

PA250

HR10

SB12

K%37

BB%9

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗32

PWR

51↗57

SPD

60→60

FLD

46↗53

EYE

54↗56

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.174 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$12M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$12M	+$7M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$17M		$56M	+$40M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	150	129	23	5	0	3	15	56	6	16	3	.178	.293	.287	.580	.109	.286	37	10	.264	60	-7	+2	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2024	22	AA	5 teams	429	380	76	14	1	15	38	175	10	35	12	.200	.290	.361	.650	.161	.319	41	9	.294	83	-8	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.8
2025	23	AAA	2 teams	545	484	96	15	6	17	49	200	7	42	11	.198	.281	.360	.641	.161	.293	37	9	.284	75	-15	+4	+0	+2	+15	0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	24	MLB	Houston Astros	42	36	6	3	0	1	5	17	0	1	0	.167	.268	.333	.602	.167	.278	40	12	.264	61	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	208	184	37	7	1	8	19	78	3	11	3	.201	.286	.380	.667	.179	.291	38	9	.298	87	-3	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.4
TOT	24	MLB	HOU	250	220	43	10	1	9	24	95	3	12	3	.195	.283	.373	.656	.177	.291	38	10	.293	82	-5	+1	-1	+0	+7	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB	HOU	420	372	77	14	3	16	39	138	6	22	6	.207	.293	.390	.682	.183	.275	33	9	.304	91	-4	+2	-0	+1	+12	1.1
2028	26	MLB	HOU	441	390	82	15	3	17	42	142	6	23	6	.210	.297	.395	.692	.185	.278	32	10	.308	94	-3	+2	-0	+2	+12	1.3
2029	27	MLB	HOU	442	391	83	15	3	17	42	141	6	23	6	.212	.298	.396	.695	.184	.279	32	10	.309	95	-3	+2	-0	+2	+13	1.4
2030	28	MLB	HOU	439	388	82	15	3	17	42	139	6	22	5	.211	.298	.397	.695	.186	.279	32	10	.308	94	-3	+2	-1	+2	+12	1.3
2031	29	MLB	HOU	429	379	80	15	3	16	41	137	6	21	5	.211	.298	.393	.691	.182	.278	32	10	.306	92	-4	+2	-2	+2	+12	1.1
2032	30	MLB	HOU	420	371	76	14	2	15	40	136	6	19	5	.205	.293	.375	.667	.170	.276	32	10	.303	90	-5	+2	-2	+1	+12	0.8
2033	31	MLB	HOU	405	357	73	13	2	15	39	133	6	17	4	.204	.294	.378	.672	.174	.274	33	10	.299	87	-6	+2	-3	+1	+11	0.6
2034	32	MLB	HOU	386	341	68	13	2	13	37	129	5	14	3	.199	.287	.364	.651	.164	.272	33	10	.294	83	-7	+2	-4	+1	+11	0.3
2035	33	MLB	HOU	356	314	62	11	2	12	34	121	5	12	2	.197	.286	.360	.646	.162	.270	34	10	.289	79	-8	+2	-4	+1	+10	0.0
2036	34	MLB	HOU	312	275	54	10	2	10	30	109	4	9	2	.196	.285	.356	.641	.160	.268	35	10	.282	74	-9	+1	-5	+1	+9	-0.3
2037	35	MLB	HOU	259	230	43	8	1	8	24	93	3	7	1	.187	.272	.335	.607	.148	.265	36	9	.274	68	-9	+1	-6	+1	+7	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5641	4985	1012	184	34	199	531	1927	85	293	74	.203	.291	.373	.664	.170	.282	34	9	.296	85	-95	+29	-27	+20	+160	8.9
/ 162G	—			650	574	117	21	4	23	61	222	10	34	9	.204	.291	.375	.666	.171	.283	34	9	.296	85	-11	+3	-3	+2	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	150	120	26	6	0	4	24	40	6	16	3	.217	.373	.367	.740	.150	.289	27	16	.344	122	+4	+2	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	22	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	48	42	6	2	0	0	3	19	3	3	0	.143	.250	.190	.440	.048	.261	40	6	.218	25	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	181	151	38	8	1	9	24	61	6	16	4	.252	.376	.497	.872	.245	.358	34	13	.386	154	+11	+2	—	—	+5	1.8
2024	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	97	81	26	3	0	6	14	26	1	10	3	.321	.427	.580	1.007	.259	.400	27	14	.435	191	+10	+1	—	—	+3	1.4
2024	22	ROK	FCL Astros	18	13	6	2	0	0	5	2	0	3	2	.462	.611	.615	1.226	.154	.545	11	28	.538	269	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	22	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	85	75	15	2	0	4	10	30	0	3	3	.200	.294	.387	.681	.187	.268	35	12	.306	92	-1	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	23	MLB	Houston Astros	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	.167	.222	.452	.675	.286	.167	43	4	.280	73	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2025	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	498	419	109	18	7	17	70	139	6	41	11	.260	.374	.458	.832	.198	.346	28	14	.369	140	+23	+4	—	—	+14	4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	.167	.222	.452	.675	.286	.167	43	4	.280	73	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brice Matthews (OGILVIE)	24	30→32	51→57	60	56	.199/.285/.380	.181	.270	10	13	34%	9%	87	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	43→44	54→55	56→55	42	.224/.287/.400	.176	.302	22	22	33%	7%	92	+1.2	.204/.276/.344	.140	.280	16	17	31%	8%	72	-0.2	.184/.266/.306	.121	.251	14	16	31%	9%	55	-0.9
✕Justin Maxwell 2009 · MLB	25	41→45	55→60	55→60	43	.220/.286/.402	.182	.280	23	22	30%	8%	92	+1.2	.219/.298/.371	.152	.316	18	29	34%	9%	89	+0.9	.221/.295/.429	.208	.301	26	17	34%	9%	97	+0.7
✕Alexander Canario 2023 · AAA	23	36→34	58→60	53→50	39	.206/.265/.407	.201	.278	27	17	36%	7%	84	+0.6	.216/.277/.401	.185	.303	24	12	35%	7%	88	+0.9	.211/.275/.376	.165	.297	22	8	35%	7%	76	+0.0
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	51→55	58→55	46	.207/.294/.372	.165	.295	18	24	34%	10%	87	+0.8	.244/.322/.424	.180	.328	20	21	30%	9%	112	+2.6	.242/.325/.399	.157	.318	18	21	28%	10%	104	+1.4
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	54→60	52→50	37	.208/.266/.387	.178	.310	23	17	39%	7%	79	+0.3	.209/.272/.395	.186	.271	26	12	32%	7%	84	+0.6	.200/.266/.385	.185	.241	27	10	30%	7%	76	+0.1
●Chris Young 2008 · MLB	24	42→49	58→60	54→55	47	.231/.295/.441	.210	.261	26	22	23%	8%	105	+2.1	.238/.310/.431	.193	.285	21	17	24%	9%	109	+2.4	.239/.321/.424	.186	.290	20	17	24%	10%	107	+2.4
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	49→50	52→55	41	.194/.257/.337	.143	.263	18	19	33%	7%	63	-0.9	.184/.262/.320	.136	.261	17	22	35%	8%	61	-1.0	.178/.268/.330	.152	.242	18	26	33%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→53	51→50	57→65	41	.232/.295/.387	.154	.318	19	32	32%	7%	91	+1.1	.234/.305/.351	.117	.323	11	40	29%	8%	85	+0.7	.233/.306/.338	.105	.319	9	43	27%	9%	80	+0.3
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→51	54→55	59→55	48	.223/.304/.414	.191	.270	21	29	26%	9%	102	+1.9	.225/.290/.385	.160	.283	16	24	26%	8%	89	+0.9	.225/.287/.379	.154	.282	15	22	25%	7%	82	+0.5
✕Jonny DeLuca 2023 · AA	25	40→37	58→60	56→55	46	.219/.281/.421	.202	.243	26	15	23%	7%	95	+1.4	.228/.292/.398	.170	.264	19	18	22%	7%	92	+1.2	.228/.294/.381	.153	.268	16	23	21%	7%	86	+0.4
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	39→43	51→55	54→50	47	.204/.289/.363	.160	.282	18	16	33%	10%	82	+0.5	.215/.301/.392	.177	.270	21	10	27%	10%	95	+1.4	.206/.293/.385	.178	.247	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.6
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	46→51	50	57→60	41	.236/.288/.385	.148	.298	19	31	27%	6%	87	+0.8	.219/.282/.353	.134	.274	17	25	26%	6%	77	+0.1	.202/.272/.322	.120	.252	16	24	26%	7%	62	-0.6
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	41→46	54→60	49→50	41	.216/.279/.394	.178	.298	22	15	34%	7%	86	+0.8	.225/.298/.429	.204	.290	27	11	31%	9%	104	+2.0	.219/.298/.421	.202	.276	27	10	30%	9%	99	+1.4
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	50→49	52→60	55→50	45	.253/.312/.425	.172	.306	19	22	23%	7%	108	+2.3	.261/.317/.468	.207	.304	29	15	24%	7%	121	+3.2	.244/.300/.437	.193	.276	28	12	23%	7%	102	+1.1
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	46→49	50	54→55	45	.235/.297/.389	.154	.303	18	23	28%	8%	92	+1.2	.226/.292/.355	.129	.293	13	15	26%	8%	81	+0.4	.219/.286/.334	.114	.279	11	12	24%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Blake Tekotte 2012 · MLB	25	44→46	50	52→55	47	.225/.293/.380	.155	.283	17	23	27%	8%	89	+0.9	.203/.260/.335	.132	.279	13	17	31%	6%	63	-0.9	.194/.258/.314	.119	.261	10	10	28%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2023 · MLB	24	44→41	55	52→50	41	.231/.282/.421	.189	.295	23	17	30%	6%	95	+1.4	.229/.287/.358	.129	.283	15	13	24%	7%	80	+0.4	.229/.291/.326	.096	.278	11	10	21%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→45	52→55	57→50	47	.221/.304/.390	.169	.296	20	14	31%	10%	96	+1.5	.219/.293/.392	.173	.271	21	8	27%	9%	92	+1.2	.215/.288/.396	.181	.255	22	5	25%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Casper Wells 2009 · AA	24	43→46	56→60	53→50	44	.227/.300/.420	.192	.273	23	16	26%	7%	102	+1.9	.223/.292/.415	.192	.289	23	11	30%	7%	98	+1.6	.225/.297/.431	.205	.278	24	7	27%	7%	99	+1.1
●Oneil Cruz 2023 · MLB	24	45→51	58→60	55	43	.237/.297/.442	.205	.306	26	20	31%	7%	106	+2.2	.235/.305/.421	.186	.312	23	23	30%	9%	104	+2.0	.228/.309/.413	.185	.304	24	33	31%	10%	96	+1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)