Brice Matthews
LF Houston Astros| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/AA/A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 429 | .251/.367/.461 | 19 | 35 | 91 | — | .217/.312/.386 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAAHOU | 498 | .260/.374/.458 | 17 | 41 | 94 | — | .229/.313/.392 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBHOU | 47 | .167/.222/.452 | 4 | 1 | 79 | 0.2 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAAHOU | 29 | .042/.148/.042 | 0 | 1 | -54 | — | .040/.111/.040 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBHOU | 233 | .201/.257/.332 | 7 | 4 | 63 | -1.0 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBHOU | 202 | .211/.281/.377 | 7 | 8 | 84 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 26 | MLBHOU | 221 | .211/.281/.377 | 8 | 9 | 84 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ82% MLB | 27 | MLBHOU | 235 | .210/.280/.375 | 9 | 10 | 83 | -0.1 |
Tools · Splits · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 150 | 120 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 40 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 217 | 373 | 367 | 740 | 150 | 289 | 27 | 16 | 344 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 48 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 190 | 440 | 48 | 261 | 40 | 6 | 218 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 181 | 151 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 61 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 252 | 376 | 497 | 872 | 245 | 358 | 34 | 13 | 386 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 97 | 81 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 321 | 427 | 580 | 1.007 | 259 | 400 | 27 | 14 | 435 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 18 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 462 | 611 | 615 | 1.226 | 154 | 545 | 11 | 28 | 538 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Senadores de San Juan | — | 85 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 200 | 294 | 387 | 681 | 187 | 268 | 35 | 12 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 47 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 222 | 452 | 675 | 286 | 167 | 43 | 4 | 280 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 498 | 419 | 109 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 70 | 139 | 6 | 41 | 11 | 260 | 374 | 458 | 832 | 198 | 346 | 28 | 14 | 369 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 233 | 214 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 74 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 201 | 257 | 332 | 588 | 131 | 269 | 32 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -10 | -1 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -1.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 29 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 148 | 42 | 190 | 71 | 41 | 10 | 103 | -54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 280 | 256 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 94 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 195 | 251 | 352 | 602 | 156 | 257 | 34 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -12 | -1 | -1 | -1 | +6 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 150 | 127 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 181 | 307 | 291 | 598 | 110 | 271 | 36 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 48 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 116 | 208 | 163 | 371 | 47 | 244 | 48 | 4 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 181 | 157 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 74 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 204 | 309 | 395 | 704 | 191 | 331 | 41 | 10 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 97 | 86 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 256 | 333 | 453 | 787 | 198 | 344 | 35 | 9 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 18 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 400 | 500 | 533 | 1.033 | 133 | 423 | 17 | 17 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 47 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 222 | 452 | 675 | 286 | 167 | 43 | 4 | 285 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 498 | 441 | 101 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 48 | 168 | 6 | 41 | 11 | 229 | 313 | 392 | 705 | 163 | 329 | 34 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 233 | 214 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 74 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 201 | 257 | 332 | 588 | 131 | 269 | 32 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -10 | -1 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -1.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 29 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 111 | 40 | 151 | 70 | 48 | 7 | 88 | -54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 150 | 127 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 181 | 307 | 291 | 598 | 110 | 286 | 36 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 150 | 120 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 40 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 217 | 373 | 367 | 740 | 150 | 289 | 27 | 16 | 344 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 5 teams | — | 429 | 378 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 167 | 10 | 35 | 12 | 212 | 304 | 376 | 679 | 164 | 330 | 39 | 9 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 5 teams | — | 429 | 362 | 91 | 17 | 1 | 19 | 56 | 138 | 10 | 35 | 12 | 251 | 367 | 461 | 828 | 210 | 350 | 32 | 13 | 369 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 483 | 108 | 17 | 8 | 17 | 50 | 188 | 7 | 42 | 11 | 224 | 306 | 398 | 703 | 174 | 324 | 34 | 9 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 545 | 461 | 116 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 72 | 159 | 7 | 42 | 11 | 252 | 361 | 458 | 819 | 206 | 335 | 29 | 13 | 361 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 239 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 88 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 184 | 241 | 301 | 543 | 117 | 252 | 34 | 7 | 242 | 50 | -16 | -1 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -1.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 262 | 238 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 86 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 185 | 245 | 303 | 548 | 118 | 250 | 33 | 7 | 244 | 50 | -16 | -1 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -1.4 |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 150 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 183 | 307 | 294 | 600 | 111 | 271 | 36 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 5 teams | — | 429 | 376 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 167 | 10 | 35 | 12 | 213 | 304 | 378 | 681 | 165 | 327 | 39 | 9 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 483 | 108 | 17 | 8 | 17 | 50 | 188 | 7 | 42 | 11 | 224 | 306 | 398 | 703 | 174 | 315 | 34 | 9 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 242 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 88 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 182 | 241 | 298 | 539 | 116 | 247 | 34 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 5 teams | — | 429 | 376 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 167 | 10 | 35 | 12 | 213 | 304 | 378 | 681 | 165 | 327 | 39 | 9 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 483 | 108 | 17 | 8 | 17 | 50 | 188 | 7 | 42 | 11 | 224 | 306 | 398 | 703 | 174 | 315 | 34 | 9 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 242 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 88 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 182 | 241 | 298 | 539 | 116 | 247 | 34 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 100% | 312 | 282 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 93 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 210 | 280 | 377 | 657 | 168 | 264 | 30 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -6 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 100% | 202 | 182 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 211 | 281 | 377 | 658 | 166 | 267 | 30 | 8 | 293 | 84 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 82% | 269 | 243 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 80 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 210 | 280 | 378 | 658 | 168 | 263 | 30 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 82% | 287 | 260 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 86 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 209 | 279 | 375 | 654 | 166 | 263 | 30 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -6 | +2 | +1 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 82% | 297 | 269 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 90 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 207 | 277 | 371 | 648 | 164 | 262 | 30 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -7 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 82% | 292 | 265 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 89 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 205 | 275 | 365 | 639 | 160 | 261 | 30 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 82% | 289 | 262 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 89 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 271 | 357 | 629 | 155 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -8 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 82% | 221 | 199 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 66 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 211 | 281 | 377 | 659 | 166 | 267 | 30 | 8 | 293 | 84 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 82% | 235 | 212 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 70 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 210 | 280 | 375 | 655 | 165 | 266 | 30 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 82% | 244 | 220 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 74 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 208 | 279 | 371 | 649 | 162 | 265 | 30 | 8 | 289 | 81 | -5 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 82% | 239 | 216 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 73 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 276 | 365 | 641 | 159 | 264 | 31 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -6 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 82% | 237 | 214 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 73 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 272 | 357 | 630 | 154 | 262 | 31 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1456 | 1317 | 269 | 38 | 6 | 53 | 113 | 450 | 11 | 46 | 13 | 204 | 273 | 363 | 636 | 159 | 263 | 31 | 8 | 283 | 81 | -39 | +4 | -2 | -13 | +32 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 121 | 17 | 3 | 24 | 50 | 201 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 206 | 274 | 367 | 641 | 162 | 265 | 31 | 8 | 283 | 81 | -17 | +2 | -1 | -6 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3022 | 2708 | 560 | 85 | 18 | 103 | 256 | 991 | 35 | 156 | 42 | 207 | 284 | 366 | 649 | 159 | 281 | 33 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -49 | +6 | -2 | -18 | +42 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 55 | 213 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 206 | 284 | 364 | 648 | 158 | 280 | 33 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -17 | +2 | -1 | -6 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 29 PAwOBA .109 → .088 (−21)K% 41.4% → 49.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 49.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 8.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .109 → .088; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .071 → .070. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 498 PAwOBA .362 → .307 (−55)K% 27.9% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.91% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.06% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.93% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.050 | 22.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷0.891 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.050 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.050 | 2.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.07% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .362 → .307; ISO .198 → .170; BABIP .346 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 181 PAwOBA .376 → .309 (−67)K% 33.7% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.70% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.26% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.31% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 3.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.951 | ×1.042 | 20.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.908 | ×0.840 | ×0.951 | ×1.042 | 8.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.908 | ×0.940 | ×0.951 | ×1.042 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 8.59% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 82, 3B 82, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .376 → .309; ISO .245 → .200; BABIP .358 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 97 PAwOBA .428 → .333 (−95)K% 26.8% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.80% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.43% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.91% | ÷0.988 | ×0.870 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 27.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.91% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 9.05% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 100, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .428 → .333; ISO .259 → .205; BABIP .400 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 48 PAwOBA .213 → .178 (−36)K% 39.6% → 47.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.58% | ÷1.006 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 6.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 16.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .178; ISO .048 → .038; BABIP .261 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Astros · 18 PAwOBA .526 → .396 (−129)K% 11.1% → 15.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 15.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.033 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 16.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 29.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 12.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .526 → .396; ISO .154 → .120; BABIP .545 → .423. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 150 PAwOBA .336 → .267 (−69)K% 26.7% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.016 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×1.015 | 19.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.015 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.09% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .336 → .267; ISO .150 → .116; BABIP .289 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .