Andrew Navigato
SS Toledo Mud Hens| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAADET | 512 | .271/.364/.500 | 21 | 22 | 88 | — | .212/.286/.400 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 448 | .211/.290/.359 | 11 | 12 | 56 | — | .184/.245/.315 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAADET | 256 | .253/.343/.380 | 4 | 6 | 66 | — | .222/.287/.322 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBDET | 16 | .210/.274/.337 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBDET | 48 | .208/.273/.334 | 1 | 1 | 74 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | — | 54 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 278 | 178 | 456 | 44 | 182 | 22 | 9 | 234 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 111 | 98 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 333 | 378 | 711 | 133 | 323 | 27 | 9 | 323 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 172 | 144 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 236 | 353 | 354 | 707 | 118 | 295 | 22 | 13 | 323 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 90 | 73 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 260 | 372 | 493 | 865 | 233 | 291 | 20 | 12 | 366 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 405 | 361 | 91 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 25 | 71 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 252 | 323 | 446 | 769 | 194 | 263 | 18 | 6 | 337 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 62 | 52 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 288 | 383 | 462 | 845 | 173 | 375 | 23 | 10 | 364 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 254 | 233 | 70 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 300 | 353 | 545 | 898 | 245 | 339 | 20 | 6 | 389 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 52 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 174 | 255 | 304 | 559 | 130 | 211 | 17 | 8 | 250 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 512 | 446 | 121 | 29 | 5 | 21 | 55 | 126 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 271 | 364 | 500 | 864 | 229 | 333 | 25 | 11 | 380 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 376 | 335 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 116 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 209 | 286 | 367 | 653 | 158 | 277 | 31 | 7 | 290 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 72 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 310 | 317 | 627 | 95 | 280 | 18 | 11 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 256 | 221 | 56 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 44 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 253 | 343 | 380 | 723 | 127 | 295 | 17 | 11 | 322 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers West | — | 54 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 85 | 204 | 106 | 310 | 21 | 141 | 31 | 6 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 111 | 100 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 279 | 300 | 579 | 100 | 283 | 32 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 172 | 151 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 192 | 282 | 298 | 580 | 106 | 255 | 31 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 90 | 77 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 221 | 302 | 429 | 731 | 208 | 243 | 28 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 405 | 368 | 80 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 87 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 217 | 278 | 375 | 653 | 158 | 233 | 21 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 62 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 241 | 317 | 370 | 687 | 130 | 327 | 31 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 254 | 239 | 61 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 65 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 255 | 294 | 444 | 737 | 188 | 309 | 26 | 4 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 52 | 48 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 196 | 250 | 446 | 104 | 168 | 25 | 4 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 512 | 463 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 38 | 148 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 212 | 286 | 400 | 685 | 188 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 376 | 343 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 130 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 184 | 245 | 315 | 560 | 131 | 249 | 35 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 256 | 230 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 222 | 287 | 322 | 609 | 100 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers West | — | 54 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 85 | 204 | 106 | 310 | 21 | 133 | 31 | 6 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Tigers West | — | 54 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 278 | 178 | 456 | 44 | 182 | 22 | 9 | 234 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 373 | 328 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 195 | 281 | 314 | 595 | 119 | 265 | 31 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 373 | 315 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 86 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 244 | 351 | 394 | 745 | 149 | 302 | 23 | 12 | 333 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 422 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 106 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 220 | 283 | 374 | 658 | 154 | 252 | 23 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 467 | 413 | 106 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 31 | 85 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 257 | 331 | 448 | 779 | 191 | 277 | 18 | 7 | 341 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 287 | 67 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 77 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 233 | 274 | 408 | 682 | 174 | 288 | 25 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 279 | 78 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 59 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 280 | 337 | 505 | 842 | 226 | 316 | 19 | 7 | 365 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 512 | 463 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 38 | 148 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 212 | 286 | 400 | 685 | 188 | 266 | 29 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 512 | 446 | 121 | 29 | 5 | 21 | 55 | 126 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 271 | 364 | 500 | 864 | 229 | 333 | 25 | 11 | 380 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 448 | 411 | 75 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 155 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 182 | 240 | 316 | 556 | 134 | 256 | 35 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 448 | 398 | 84 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 129 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 211 | 290 | 359 | 649 | 148 | 278 | 29 | 8 | 289 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 256 | 230 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 222 | 287 | 322 | 609 | 100 | 271 | 21 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 256 | 221 | 56 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 44 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 253 | 343 | 380 | 723 | 127 | 295 | 17 | 11 | 322 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers West | — | 54 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 85 | 204 | 106 | 310 | 21 | 141 | 31 | 6 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 373 | 331 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 193 | 281 | 311 | 592 | 118 | 260 | 31 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 427 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 106 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 218 | 283 | 370 | 653 | 152 | 245 | 23 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 287 | 67 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 77 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 233 | 274 | 408 | 682 | 174 | 285 | 25 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 512 | 459 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 38 | 148 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 214 | 286 | 403 | 689 | 190 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 448 | 414 | 75 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 155 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 181 | 240 | 314 | 554 | 133 | 249 | 35 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 256 | 233 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 219 | 287 | 318 | 604 | 99 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 512 | 459 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 38 | 148 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 214 | 286 | 403 | 689 | 190 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 448 | 414 | 75 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 155 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 181 | 240 | 314 | 554 | 133 | 249 | 35 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 256 | 233 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 219 | 287 | 318 | 604 | 99 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 10% | 306 | 279 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 82 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 213 | 278 | 346 | 624 | 132 | 274 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 274 | 337 | 612 | 128 | 269 | 25 | 6 | 275 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 27% | 175 | 159 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 277 | 342 | 618 | 129 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 277 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 27% | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 273 | 334 | 607 | 125 | 269 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 74 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 318 | 589 | 114 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 176 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 205 | 272 | 320 | 593 | 116 | 266 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -20 | +3 | -8 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2746 | 2489 | 517 | 121 | 13 | 71 | 170 | 758 | 55 | 84 | 40 | 208 | 273 | 352 | 626 | 145 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -10 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +7 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 40 | 179 | 13 | 20 | 9 | 209 | 274 | 355 | 629 | 146 | 266 | 28 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -20 | +1 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 256 PAwOBA .318 → .266 (−51)K% 17.2% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×0.992 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.992 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .318 → .266; ISO .127 → .100; BABIP .295 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 376 PAwOBA .286 → .243 (−43)K% 30.9% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.85% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.45% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.72% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.979 | ×1.003 | 17.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.31% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.003 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.003 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.02% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.05% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .286 → .243; ISO .158 → .133; BABIP .277 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 512 PAwOBA .370 → .298 (−73)K% 24.6% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.61% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.74% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.62% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.06% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .370 → .298; ISO .229 → .195; BABIP .333 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 254 PAwOBA .379 → .313 (−66)K% 19.7% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.69% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.91% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.67% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 18.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.02% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 10.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.01% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .379 → .313; ISO .245 → .191; BABIP .339 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 52 PAwOBA .248 → .183 (−66)K% 17.3% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.31% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 4.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 7.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 2.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.216 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 104, K 95, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .248 → .183; ISO .130 → .097; BABIP .211 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 405 PAwOBA .333 → .283 (−49)K% 17.5% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.53% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.17% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.21% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.66% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 18.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.52% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.21% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.29% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .333 → .283; ISO .194 → .163; BABIP .263 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 62 PAwOBA .366 → .301 (−66)K% 22.6% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 18.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 12.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 3.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .366 → .301; ISO .173 → .143; BABIP .375 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 172 PAwOBA .319 → .253 (−65)K% 22.1% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.09% | ÷0.959 | ×1.350 | — | — | 31.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 19.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.83% | ÷0.841 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 2.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .319 → .253; ISO .118 → .102; BABIP .295 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .