Gavin Collins
C Memphis Redbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27 | AAACLE | 139 | .235/.331/.370 | 4 | 0 | 64 | — | .205/.287/.303 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAASTL | 216 | .264/.336/.461 | 9 | 0 | 74 | — | .226/.280/.367 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAASTL | 299 | .221/.303/.297 | 2 | 4 | 39 | — | .191/.252/.257 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 32 | MLBSTL | 16 | .214/.274/.308 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 33 | MLBSTL | 40 | .209/.268/.299 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 162 | 142 | 39 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 275 | 348 | 472 | 820 | 197 | 361 | 28 | 8 | 354 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 159 | 141 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 270 | 344 | 489 | 833 | 220 | 286 | 19 | 9 | 363 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 252 | 228 | 53 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 232 | 294 | 395 | 689 | 162 | 270 | 18 | 6 | 303 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | AZL Indians 2 | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 176 | 235 | 412 | 59 | 214 | 18 | 0 | 182 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 389 | 347 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 262 | 330 | 395 | 725 | 133 | 286 | 13 | 8 | 320 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 43 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 162 | 244 | 297 | 541 | 135 | 167 | 19 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 174 | 148 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 182 | 301 | 304 | 605 | 122 | 220 | 25 | 11 | 282 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 139 | 119 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 331 | 370 | 701 | 134 | 270 | 20 | 9 | 314 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 216 | 193 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 336 | 461 | 798 | 197 | 280 | 16 | 8 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 299 | 263 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 303 | 297 | 599 | 76 | 240 | 11 | 9 | 274 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 162 | 147 | 31 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 266 | 367 | 633 | 156 | 302 | 38 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 159 | 145 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 280 | 366 | 646 | 145 | 262 | 26 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 252 | 234 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 179 | 226 | 312 | 538 | 132 | 217 | 25 | 3 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 2 | — | 17 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 118 | 176 | 294 | 59 | 163 | 24 | 0 | 120 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 389 | 357 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 70 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 218 | 270 | 325 | 595 | 106 | 244 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 174 | 154 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 249 | 234 | 482 | 78 | 205 | 30 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 139 | 122 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 287 | 303 | 590 | 98 | 243 | 23 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 216 | 199 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 280 | 367 | 647 | 141 | 252 | 20 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 299 | 272 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 252 | 257 | 509 | 66 | 208 | 13 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 291 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 102 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 279 | 371 | 650 | 151 | 296 | 32 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 321 | 283 | 77 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 75 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 272 | 346 | 481 | 827 | 208 | 322 | 23 | 8 | 358 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 251 | 45 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 67 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 179 | 223 | 307 | 529 | 127 | 222 | 25 | 3 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 269 | 245 | 56 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 229 | 287 | 384 | 670 | 155 | 266 | 18 | 5 | 295 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 395 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 223 | 274 | 337 | 611 | 114 | 252 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 432 | 384 | 97 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 60 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 322 | 385 | 707 | 133 | 275 | 14 | 8 | 312 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 174 | 154 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 249 | 234 | 482 | 78 | 212 | 30 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 174 | 148 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 182 | 301 | 304 | 605 | 122 | 220 | 25 | 11 | 282 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 139 | 122 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 287 | 303 | 590 | 98 | 247 | 23 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 139 | 119 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 331 | 370 | 701 | 134 | 270 | 20 | 9 | 314 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 216 | 199 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 280 | 367 | 647 | 141 | 260 | 20 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 216 | 193 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 336 | 461 | 798 | 197 | 280 | 16 | 8 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 299 | 272 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 252 | 257 | 509 | 66 | 214 | 13 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 299 | 263 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 303 | 297 | 599 | 76 | 240 | 11 | 9 | 274 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 294 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 102 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 218 | 279 | 367 | 647 | 150 | 282 | 32 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 253 | 45 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 67 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 223 | 304 | 527 | 126 | 214 | 25 | 3 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 401 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 78 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 219 | 274 | 332 | 606 | 112 | 244 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 174 | 153 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 249 | 235 | 484 | 78 | 205 | 30 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 139 | 124 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 202 | 287 | 298 | 585 | 97 | 243 | 23 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 216 | 199 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 280 | 367 | 647 | 141 | 252 | 20 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 299 | 275 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 252 | 255 | 506 | 65 | 208 | 13 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 216 | 199 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 280 | 367 | 647 | 141 | 252 | 20 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 299 | 275 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 252 | 255 | 506 | 65 | 208 | 13 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB MLE | STL | 10% | 336 | 308 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 63 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 214 | 273 | 309 | 581 | 95 | 252 | 19 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB CTX | STL | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 274 | 308 | 582 | 94 | 254 | 19 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 33 | MLB MLE | STL | 27% | 147 | 135 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 267 | 299 | 566 | 90 | 249 | 20 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -7 | +0 | -4 | +3 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB CTX | STL | 27% | 40 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 268 | 299 | 567 | 89 | 251 | 20 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 40 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 275 | 270 | 545 | 54 | 276 | 20 | 8 | 257 | 58 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 130 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 275 | 270 | 545 | 53 | 276 | 20 | 8 | 257 | 58 | -31 | +0 | -19 | +12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2152 | 1961 | 402 | 82 | 8 | 40 | 120 | 474 | 39 | 12 | 9 | 205 | 265 | 316 | 581 | 111 | 246 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 58 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +7 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 121 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 143 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 204 | 264 | 314 | 578 | 110 | 245 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 58 | -29 | +0 | -9 | +12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 299 PAwOBA .269 → .226 (−44)K% 10.7% → 13.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.70% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.03% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 6.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×0.972 | 16.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.33% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×0.972 | 3.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×0.972 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.68% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .269 → .226; ISO .076 → .063; BABIP .240 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 216 PAwOBA .342 → .278 (−64)K% 16.2% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.20% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.87% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.62% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 18.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.96% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.70% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .342 → .278; ISO .197 → .144; BABIP .280 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 139 PAwOBA .310 → .263 (−47)K% 20.1% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.14% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.63% | ÷0.930 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.98% | ÷0.941 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.40% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.40% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .310 → .263; ISO .134 → .098; BABIP .270 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAColumbus Clippers · 174 PAwOBA .277 → .226 (−51)K% 25.3% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.29% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.27% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 17.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.88% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 2.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.31% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 90, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .277 → .226; ISO .122 → .086; BABIP .220 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 389 PAwOBA .317 → .264 (−53)K% 13.4% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.37% | ÷1.046 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.71% | ÷0.921 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.68% | ÷0.984 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.12% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷0.999 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.37% | ÷0.850 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 100, K 109, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .317 → .264; ISO .133 → .116; BABIP .286 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 252 PAwOBA .294 → .228 (−66)K% 18.3% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.25% | ÷1.047 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.16% | ÷1.025 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 3.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.84% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 12.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.99% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 8.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.75% | ÷0.967 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.55% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 110, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .294 → .228; ISO .162 → .128; BABIP .270 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKAZL Indians 2 · 17 PAwOBA .177 → .120 (−56)K% 17.6% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 11.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .177 → .120; ISO .059 → .037; BABIP .214 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 162 PAwOBA .353 → .273 (−80)K% 27.8% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.048 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.02% | ÷1.008 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.49% | ÷1.084 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 12.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.902 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 4.17% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 114, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .353 → .273; ISO .197 → .156; BABIP .361 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .