Héctor Rodríguez
LF Louisville Bats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 637 | .271/.306/.405 | 13 | 14 | 66 | — | .239/.269/.350 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 703 | .286/.345/.459 | 23 | 18 | 102 | — | .263/.301/.405 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAACIN | 455 | .274/.350/.533 | 27 | 6 | 97 | — | .239/.296/.435 |
| 2026 | 22 | MLBCIN | 152 | .229/.270/.410 | 6 | 0 | 84 | -0.7 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 23 | MLBCIN | 70 | .231/.279/.403 | 3 | 1 | 85 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ51% MLB | 24 | MLBCIN | 314 | .234/.284/.410 | 12 | 5 | 88 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ54% MLB | 25 | MLBCIN | 331 | .235/.287/.413 | 13 | 5 | 90 | -0.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | — | 141 | 123 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 301 | 381 | 472 | 853 | 171 | 324 | 12 | 9 | 374 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 55 | 52 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 269 | 309 | 423 | 732 | 154 | 333 | 18 | 5 | 322 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 141 | 131 | 47 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 359 | 400 | 580 | 980 | 221 | 370 | 7 | 6 | 423 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 55 | 51 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 294 | 321 | 373 | 693 | 78 | 349 | 18 | 2 | 300 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 444 | 410 | 120 | 23 | 9 | 16 | 27 | 84 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 293 | 347 | 510 | 857 | 217 | 335 | 19 | 6 | 375 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | INTL | Dominican Republic | — | 189 | 179 | 51 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 285 | 319 | 436 | 755 | 151 | 327 | 15 | 4 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 541 | 507 | 139 | 24 | 7 | 12 | 26 | 72 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 274 | 312 | 420 | 732 | 146 | 297 | 13 | 5 | 321 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 96 | 91 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 269 | 319 | 587 | 66 | 286 | 16 | 2 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 230 | 215 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 38 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 260 | 306 | 405 | 710 | 144 | 287 | 17 | 5 | 315 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 345 | 312 | 93 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 48 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 298 | 360 | 481 | 840 | 183 | 318 | 14 | 8 | 368 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 128 | 113 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 301 | 378 | 504 | 882 | 204 | 309 | 10 | 10 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 152 | 144 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 229 | 270 | 410 | 679 | 181 | 273 | 26 | 5 | 299 | 84 | -3 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 455 | 405 | 111 | 16 | 4 | 27 | 42 | 93 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 274 | 350 | 533 | 883 | 259 | 292 | 20 | 9 | 383 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 152 | 144 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 229 | 270 | 410 | 679 | 181 | 273 | 26 | 5 | 299 | 89 | -2 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +3 | -0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 141 | 128 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 195 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 102 | 213 | 16 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 55 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 255 | 358 | 613 | 132 | 307 | 24 | 4 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 141 | 134 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 276 | 307 | 425 | 733 | 149 | 291 | 10 | 4 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 55 | 51 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 294 | 321 | 373 | 693 | 78 | 336 | 24 | 2 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 444 | 417 | 99 | 17 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 114 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 237 | 284 | 398 | 682 | 161 | 297 | 26 | 5 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 541 | 514 | 123 | 21 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 91 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 239 | 269 | 350 | 619 | 111 | 270 | 17 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 230 | 219 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 228 | 262 | 352 | 614 | 123 | 263 | 20 | 3 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 345 | 322 | 92 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 58 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 286 | 327 | 441 | 768 | 155 | 314 | 17 | 5 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 152 | 144 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 229 | 270 | 410 | 679 | 181 | 273 | 26 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -3 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 455 | 418 | 100 | 14 | 4 | 20 | 29 | 111 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 239 | 296 | 435 | 732 | 196 | 271 | 24 | 6 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 141 | 128 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 195 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 102 | 217 | 16 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 1 | — | 141 | 123 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 301 | 381 | 472 | 853 | 171 | 324 | 12 | 9 | 374 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 196 | 187 | 49 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 262 | 292 | 406 | 699 | 144 | 297 | 14 | 4 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 196 | 183 | 61 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 333 | 374 | 536 | 910 | 202 | 360 | 10 | 6 | 395 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 688 | 648 | 157 | 26 | 12 | 16 | 28 | 175 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 242 | 283 | 394 | 677 | 151 | 307 | 25 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 688 | 640 | 186 | 35 | 14 | 19 | 36 | 123 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 291 | 337 | 478 | 815 | 188 | 334 | 18 | 5 | 357 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 637 | 604 | 145 | 25 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 107 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 240 | 269 | 349 | 618 | 109 | 275 | 17 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 637 | 598 | 162 | 27 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 87 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 271 | 306 | 405 | 710 | 134 | 295 | 14 | 4 | 311 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 703 | 661 | 173 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 128 | 5 | 18 | 9 | 262 | 301 | 401 | 702 | 139 | 297 | 18 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 703 | 640 | 183 | 28 | 7 | 23 | 53 | 99 | 5 | 18 | 9 | 286 | 345 | 459 | 805 | 173 | 306 | 14 | 8 | 354 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 607 | 562 | 131 | 18 | 6 | 25 | 36 | 150 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 233 | 286 | 420 | 706 | 187 | 272 | 25 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 607 | 549 | 144 | 20 | 6 | 33 | 49 | 132 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 262 | 329 | 501 | 830 | 239 | 287 | 22 | 8 | 362 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 141 | 129 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 194 | 259 | 295 | 554 | 101 | 213 | 16 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 196 | 186 | 49 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 263 | 292 | 409 | 701 | 145 | 295 | 14 | 4 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 688 | 646 | 157 | 26 | 12 | 16 | 28 | 175 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 243 | 283 | 395 | 678 | 152 | 301 | 25 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 637 | 608 | 145 | 25 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 107 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 238 | 269 | 347 | 616 | 109 | 270 | 17 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 703 | 660 | 173 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 128 | 5 | 18 | 9 | 262 | 301 | 402 | 702 | 139 | 294 | 18 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 607 | 560 | 131 | 18 | 6 | 25 | 36 | 150 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 234 | 286 | 421 | 708 | 188 | 271 | 25 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 637 | 608 | 145 | 25 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 107 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 238 | 269 | 347 | 616 | 109 | 270 | 17 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 703 | 660 | 173 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 128 | 5 | 18 | 9 | 262 | 301 | 402 | 702 | 139 | 294 | 18 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 607 | 560 | 131 | 18 | 6 | 25 | 36 | 150 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 234 | 286 | 421 | 708 | 188 | 271 | 25 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | CIN | 45% | 648 | 603 | 136 | 18 | 5 | 23 | 34 | 131 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 228 | 276 | 391 | 667 | 163 | 251 | 20 | 5 | 294 | 85 | -12 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +14 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | CIN | 45% | 70 | 65 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 279 | 403 | 682 | 172 | 253 | 20 | 6 | 300 | 85 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | CIN | 51% | 614 | 569 | 131 | 18 | 5 | 22 | 34 | 123 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 230 | 281 | 397 | 678 | 167 | 254 | 20 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -9 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | CIN | 54% | 614 | 568 | 131 | 18 | 5 | 22 | 35 | 123 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 232 | 284 | 400 | 684 | 168 | 256 | 20 | 6 | 301 | 90 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +13 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 55% | 614 | 566 | 132 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 37 | 124 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 232 | 285 | 400 | 685 | 168 | 257 | 20 | 6 | 302 | 91 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +13 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 55% | 606 | 559 | 131 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 37 | 124 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 232 | 286 | 398 | 684 | 166 | 258 | 20 | 6 | 302 | 90 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -6 | +13 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 55% | 592 | 545 | 126 | 18 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 123 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 231 | 286 | 393 | 679 | 163 | 258 | 21 | 6 | 300 | 89 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 53% | 571 | 526 | 119 | 17 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 120 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 282 | 386 | 669 | 159 | 257 | 21 | 6 | 296 | 86 | -9 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +12 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 53% | 555 | 511 | 115 | 16 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 118 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 278 | 378 | 656 | 153 | 254 | 21 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -11 | +0 | -3 | -6 | +12 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | CIN | 51% | 314 | 291 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 63 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 234 | 284 | 410 | 693 | 176 | 255 | 20 | 5 | 305 | 88 | -4 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | CIN | 54% | 331 | 306 | 73 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 66 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 287 | 413 | 699 | 177 | 257 | 20 | 6 | 307 | 90 | -4 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 55% | 340 | 314 | 74 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 69 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 236 | 289 | 412 | 701 | 177 | 259 | 20 | 6 | 308 | 91 | -4 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 55% | 332 | 306 | 73 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 68 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 289 | 410 | 699 | 175 | 260 | 20 | 6 | 308 | 90 | -4 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 55% | 323 | 297 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 289 | 405 | 694 | 171 | 260 | 21 | 6 | 306 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 53% | 304 | 279 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 64 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 285 | 398 | 684 | 167 | 258 | 21 | 6 | 301 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 53% | 291 | 269 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 281 | 389 | 671 | 162 | 256 | 21 | 6 | 296 | 83 | -6 | -0 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2387 | 2206 | 514 | 70 | 20 | 90 | 140 | 498 | 21 | 26 | 9 | 233 | 285 | 405 | 690 | 172 | 260 | 21 | 6 | 304 | 86 | -33 | +2 | -4 | -30 | +52 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 140 | 19 | 5 | 25 | 38 | 136 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 286 | 406 | 692 | 173 | 259 | 21 | 6 | 304 | 86 | -9 | +0 | -1 | -8 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7293 | 6779 | 1598 | 237 | 70 | 225 | 391 | 1496 | 64 | 133 | 56 | 236 | 284 | 391 | 675 | 155 | 269 | 21 | 5 | 295 | 86 | -63 | +4 | -8 | -53 | +97 | -2.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 142 | 21 | 6 | 20 | 35 | 133 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 235 | 284 | 389 | 673 | 154 | 268 | 20 | 5 | 295 | 86 | -9 | +1 | -1 | -8 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALouisville Bats · 455 PAwOBA .373 → .312 (−61)K% 20.4% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 19.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .373 → .312; ISO .259 → .200; BABIP .292 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 345 PAwOBA .362 → .330 (−32)K% 13.9% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.91% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.12% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.050 | 24.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.68% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.050 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×1.022 | ×1.050 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.021 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 3.74% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .362 → .330; ISO .183 → .158; BABIP .318 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 230 PAwOBA .306 → .265 (−41)K% 16.5% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.52% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.78% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 21.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.52% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.95% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.22% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .306 → .265; ISO .144 → .120; BABIP .287 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 541 PAwOBA .314 → .267 (−47)K% 13.3% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.31% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 16.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.62% | ÷0.976 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 3.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.07% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.042 | 20.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.52% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | ×0.993 | ×1.042 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.030 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×1.042 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.76% | ÷1.285 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .314 → .267; ISO .146 → .110; BABIP .297 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 444 PAwOBA .365 → .291 (−74)K% 18.9% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.08% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.09% | ÷1.032 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.045 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.045 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.76% | ÷1.083 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×1.045 | 2.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.91% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.87% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .365 → .291; ISO .217 → .164; BABIP .335 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 55 PAwOBA .302 → .281 (−21)K% 18.2% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.82% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 1.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.050 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.27% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 28.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 2.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .281; ISO .078 → .070; BABIP .349 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Reds · 141 PAwOBA .414 → .319 (−96)K% 7.1% → 10.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.09% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 10.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.38% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.79% | ÷1.022 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×1.022 | 20.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.61% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | ×0.999 | ×1.022 | 4.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.96% | ÷0.983 | ×0.720 | ×0.999 | ×1.022 | 3.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.04% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .414 → .319; ISO .221 → .168; BABIP .370 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 55 PAwOBA .313 → .265 (−49)K% 18.2% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 8.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 4.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 103, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .313 → .265; ISO .154 → .129; BABIP .333 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .